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Thread: Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

  1. #401
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.

    I cannot have him even with the weight concession, which I confess is greater than I realised, but will (I think) make little odds whhen AF jumps a fence the way he does.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  2. #402
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.

    I cannot have him even with the weight concession, which I confess is greater than I realised, but will (I think) make little odds whhen AF jumps a fence the way he does.
    I didn't realise the weight concession would be as big as it is going to be, but I agree with you, Asterion Forlonge just didn't look a natural chaser at Limerick and he wasn't quick over his fences, where as Envoi Allen will take lengths out of the field you'd imagine.

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    The fall was an inevitability, not an abberation during an otherwise solid jumping performance.
    from memory i didn't remember his jumping to be bad so i've just had a quick rewatch and his jumping is generally fine before he tips out? shortens up to a couple and has to fiddle over but does without much fuss. wasn't even a single error before he tipped up and definitely not an "inevitability" he'd fall.

    https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watc...-chase-grade-1

  4. #404
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Maybe I’m being harsh, but I want no part of a horse that shifts as much as he does at an obstacle.

    He just lacks fluency, and that’s a must-have in Grade 1 chases - novice or otherwise. Not doubting his engine or class - but for me, he is one to oppose over fences, whilst he’s still being talked-up as a top prospect.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  5. #405
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    his jumping doesn't look naturally great i agree, but i don't see him as a fall waiting to happen that ploughs through his fences like a Great Field (), more someone who may lose ground to better horses who jump well like envoi

    i think current odds of 5/2 aren't that bad over a horse with his engine that is getting 11lb with the added upside he may end up not even facing EA. have to think there's no chance AF gets taken out either as this is a much better race for him than anything at the DRF given it's going right handed.

  6. #406
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    In Great Field’s defence, at least he used to fall like a man who was high on life, and not a toddler taking its first steps.

    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  7. #407
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    11lbs is big

    I think one of them ducks it
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  8. #408
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I'm backing the Mullins horse. That's a lot of weight and until he came down at Limerick his jumping was ok. I'll Probably back to partial lay it as Envoi Allen certainly drifted IR during the Drinmore as for just a split second it looked like Assemble was gonna make him work for it.

  9. #409
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    11lbs is big

    I think one of them ducks it
    really does make no sense for AF to duck it other than it's a bit quick after a fall but if he didn't seem ok at home he probably doesn't even hold an entry. they could wait for the DRF to see how he goes left handed but surely it's better to keep him right handed until it's absolutely necessary.

  10. #410
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    both confirmed

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    Nobody has blinked yet , still time for a stone bruise or a didn't eat up but if the 2 go to post EA must be jumping out off his skin because you just wouldn't risk him otherwise.

  12. #412
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    From what I”ve seen he’s always jumping out of his skin. Wish I could earwig the riding instructions if they both turn up.

  13. #413
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    Race of the season so far.

  14. #414
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    Not bad for a grade 3 for 20k!!

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

  15. #415
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    Anyone tempted to back Asterion Forlonge just needs to think how much a better animal Envoi Allen is over hurdles, and then remember the fences are an asset to him and a hindrance to Asterion Forlonge. Receiving 11lbs isn't enough for Asterion Forlonge to win unless Envoi Allen has a significant off day, or he fluffs his lines in the jumping department.

  16. #416
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied from the A/P thread:

    Top novices on RPRs as per the Weekender regular feature:

    Shishkin 170
    Chatham Street Lad 163
    Envoi Allen 162
    Royale Pagaille 160
    Protektorat 160
    Monkfish 160
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Anyone tempted to back Asterion Forlonge just needs to think how much a better animal Envoi Allen is over hurdles, and then remember the fences are an asset to him and a hindrance to Asterion Forlonge. Receiving 11lbs isn't enough for Asterion Forlonge to win unless Envoi Allen has a significant off day, or he fluffs his lines in the jumping department.

    Are they a hindrance? Seems a bit early for that call.

    And the best race AF ran in as a hurdler he probably covered 50 yards more than any other horse.
    Last edited by Euronymous; 15th January 2021 at 4:13 PM.

  18. #418
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Copied from the A/P thread:

    Top novices on RPRs as per the Weekender regular feature:

    Shishkin 170
    Chatham Street Lad 163
    Envoi Allen 162
    Royale Pagaille 160
    Protektorat 160
    Monkfish 160
    They really are such a waste of time in trying to evaluate a good race.

  19. #419
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    They really are such a waste of time in trying to evaluate a good race.
    I think they serve a purpose. They often highlight form that might otherwise be overlooked.

    Once you get them all in the same ballpark then our own different interpretations of the form can kick in to allow us to sort the wheat from the chaff.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #420
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    With novices though so many are just too un-exposed. Before last year's RSA Copperhead was rated 8ls higher than Minella Indo

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