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Thread: Noted in running

  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Only problem is I saw a few note it after the race so probably won't be missed. What was also interesting about the race was how the Karl Burke horse (7/4f) ran, finishing an atricious 7th. His stable stats are now virus like. He had another well backed horse run poorly on Sunday too. Avoid that stable until we see signs of life.
    Burke had a 14/1 winner today.

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    Slim (11th January 2021)

  3. #222
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    Going into today he was 1/29 winners and 6/58 with places. He was 0.29 A/E. All for the last 28 days.

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    Beef or Salmon (11th January 2021)

  5. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Only problem is I saw a few note it after the race so probably won't be missed. What was also interesting about the race was how the Karl Burke horse (7/4f) ran, finishing an atricious 7th. His stable stats are now virus like. He had another well backed horse run poorly on Sunday too. Avoid that stable until we see signs of life.
    I'd backed the top 2 off my card but I thought it was gonna be Kevin The Minion's race re my numbers and weighted on that but that gives poss explanation as to why my 2nd choice made all nearly.

    20210108 1815 Southwell.JPG

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    Slim (11th January 2021)

  7. #224
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    Are they your own ratings?

  8. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Are they your own ratings?
    yes , so they're just my own mechanised opinions
    Last edited by pawras; 11th January 2021 at 11:55 PM.

  9. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Are they your own ratings?
    They're statistical ratings so you won't like them Slim.

  10. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    They're statistical ratings so you won't like them Slim.
    I use Rating The Races myself. No harm in seeing what the maths says.

  11. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by pawras View Post
    yes , so they're just my own mechanised opinions
    Interesting stuff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Interesting stuff.
    E.g. For the "Going Suitability Rating" I took the approach I use to determine whether I think a horse can perform on the going via it's previous runs and converted that to a computer algorithm which spits out a number at the end. This means I can assess every horse running in each race in UK/IRE each day and do so consistently and quickly compare one against another in a race.

    If blindly backing any that were stand alone top rated for that rating it would result, over 20 yrs of data, a strike of 25% and an roi -15%. For comparison to do so with the OR would result in a strike of 22% and roi -16%.

    Hence you don't use these things in isolation.


    I like to look at trends on big races as well but I know you love them......
    Last edited by pawras; 12th January 2021 at 4:20 PM.

  13. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by pawras View Post
    E.g. For the "Going Suitability Rating" I took the approach I use to determine whether I think a horse can perform on the going via it's previous runs and converted that to a computer algorithm which spits out a number at the end. This means I can assess every horse running in each race in UK/IRE each day and do so consistently and quickly compare one against another in a race.

    If blindly backing any that were stand alone top rated for that rating it would result, over 20 yrs of data, a strike of 25% and an roi -15%. For comparison to do so with the OR would result in a strike of 22% and roi -16%.

    Hence you don't use these things in isolation.


    I like to look at trends on big races as well but I know you love them......
    I think ratings can get you a very long way but you need nuance to make them pay. A good judge should be beating any ratings ROI.

  14. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I think ratings can get you a very long way but you need nuance to make them pay. A good judge should be beating any ratings ROI.
    Indeed what I quoted were very broad overall averages, how ratings, those included, perform in certain circumstances/types of races etc can vary dramatically.

  15. #232
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    THOR DE CERISY

    Leicester 13 January 221
    Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
    1m7½f, Class 3, £5,913.18
    Going: Heavy

    The first two had been prominent throughout the latter half, but Thor de Cerisy only appeared on the scene approaching the second last. He was still two lengths down over the last, but put the pedal down and was closing rapidly with the first two running along the rail with plenty of space. Unfortunately the second started hanging left and leaning into the eventual winner forcing him closer to the rail and shutting the door for Thor de Cerisy who had to make a very sharp jink into open space. He keep closing, but went down by a head and a neck.

    The stewards had this to say: “Inside the final furlong, THOR DE CERISY (FR), placed third, was forced to switch right-handed for clear running when both SAN SEB (GER), placed second, and the winner WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE), shifted left-handed when clear of him on to the rail, but after viewing a recording of the incident, it was found that no riding offence was involved and that it had not improved the placing of SAN SEB (GER) or WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE)”

    They may be right, but I think Thor de Cerisy was an unlucky loser.
    Last edited by barjon; 13th January 2021 at 5:33 PM.

  16. #233
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    Post #173 Ivilnoble runs tomorrow 12:20 Market Rasen. Early price 8/1 - back up in grade
    Post #198 Fawsley Spirit runs tomorrow 1:30 Market Rasen. Early price 9/4 - up 5lb from last time

  17. #234
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    Ghost Rider which I'd mentioned the other day has come up on my watch list as running at Southwell tomorrow in the 13:35.

  18. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Post #173 Ivilnoble runs tomorrow 12:20 Market Rasen. Early price 8/1 - back up in grade
    Post #198 Fawsley Spirit runs tomorrow 1:30 Market Rasen. Early price 9/4 - up 5lb from last time
    Upl Ivilnoble and Won 9/4 Fawsley Spirit

  19. #236
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    I was going to write up Imperial Alcazar, but I can’t bring myself to re-visit a race where we lost both Ardlethen and Espion.

  20. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by pawras View Post
    Ghost Rider which I'd mentioned the other day has come up on my watch list as running at Southwell tomorrow in the 13:35.
    Well someone's had more on than the cheeky pony I put on yesterday as a speculative bet at 8/11 cos the isp ended up at 2/7 but at least it won!

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    barjon (17th January 2021)

  22. #238
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    TIMELESS BEAUTY

    Ayr 19 January 2021
    Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Northern Lights Mares' Hurdle Series Qual')
    2m5½f, Class 5, £2,794.14
    Going: Heavy

    Warren Greatrex sent her all the way to Ayr for her first handicap run in a tin-pot little race where the winner’s prize wouldn’t go far towards the £100,000 she cost. Not much of a surprise, then, that she outclassed the field and won with ease. Unless the handicapper goes barmy I think there should be more to come at this level - maybe even before he gets his chance if she eats up well!
    Last edited by barjon; 18th January 2021 at 5:59 PM.

  23. #239
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    Post #205 Le Cameleon runs tomorrow 1.35 Chepstow - early price 9/2
    Post #138 Hamilton’s Fantasy runs tomorrow 2.0 Newbury - early price 10/11
    Last edited by barjon; 20th January 2021 at 5:21 PM.

  24. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Post #205 Le Cameleon runs tomorrow 1.35 Chepstow - early price 9/2
    Post #138 Hamilton’s Fantasy runs tomorrow 2.0 Newbury - early price 10/11
    Le Cameleon WON 11/8
    Hamilton’s Fantasy UPL - drifted out to 11/4

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