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  1. #1
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    Glorious Goodwood 2020

    The racing this week deserves a thread with a combination of high class handicaps and group clashes to analyse.

    I will copy a post from forum member Euro below this post where he has put his ideas down.

    I have been through the week to see what I fancy. I am wary of getting sucked in to backing one horse in every race for sake of it so I have only picked half a dozen horses to interest me from the Tuesday-Friday.

    I will probably risk a yankee on them tomorrow, knowing that it's possible that one or two might get taken out or not declared.

    I reiterate it's important to be selective for many of us so hence some races, especially the two year old races, I would seriously not like to lose money guessing too much what may happen.

    Tuesday

    1.45 This is an ultra competative handicap where Red October (NAP) trained by Hugo Palmer showed he'd improved from being gelded before his last winning performance. He ticks a lot of boxes in a big handicap like this. He's currently a 10/1 chance. That's a price I'll play at.

    2:45. Looking at Beat Le Bon's (E/W) profile shows he did really well last season when winning big showcase handicaps here at Goodwood. Richard Hannon then stepped him up to Group level where I think those hard handicaps he won last season just took their toll. He lost a shoe the last day but you know what, back here at Goodwood he is an each way price in an open race. He is also entered in the Golden Mile, but declared for this race on Tuesday, where he gets my vote (each way) .

    Wednesday

    1.45 I was keen on Volcanic Sky before he was taken out this morning. I have looked at the race again. A very competative affair this year with loads of good horses who have their chances, though I have put last seasons runner up, Seinesational in my bet as he actually races off the same mark with Luke Morris on board this time. He probably ran the race of his career here last season where from memory a well handicapped Sir Mark Prescott trained horse got the better of him near the finish. I have done this fella each way so I only hope he can rekindle his run here last year to do something similiar again. He might prove he needs a marathon trip to show his best.

    Thursday

    2.45 English King is the horse who currently heads the market. He will be on many people's radars although at a better price I am going to give Highland Chief another chance. He put up a life time best at Royal Ascot off top weight on his penultimate start. As with a few of these, we don't know how they have come out of the epsom derby, but if he comes back to very best plus a few pounds I reckon he will be bang there.

    Friday

    1.45. I cannot see a good reason why I should jump ship, or not want to back Breathtaking Look. This filly was a massive improver last season. She placed in second in the Abernant behind Oxted, who showed what calibre of horse he was a little while ago. Breathtaking Look just got nabbed at the line last week, but a sharp 7F at Goodwood will be really interesting. She will be right up there from the start. I will take 6/1 that nothing will get past her this time. She deserves to get her head in front.

    3:15 Battash Battash Battash. Who wants to back the horse at 1/3 though? Mark Johnston trains a useful improver, or what Matthew Chapman might call a 'roughie' , but Meraas (E/W) might be a solid each way bet having hacked up in a handicap off top weight the last day. He's open to any amount of improvement so looks an eye-catching entry for a top trainer who knows how to bring a horse from a 10K handicap to a race like this.

    These are my notes for the week, will back these after declarations tomorrow hoping for the very best. I will see how my luck is after racing on Friday with a view to Saturday. I am hoping other posters will contribute during the week.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th July 2020 at 3:07 PM.

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  4. #2
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    This is from forum member Euro.

    "Lennox looks a really solid competitive race. Hard to knock the Space Blues/Safe Voyage form but not sure the track will suit the latter. He won well at Epsom but didn't look in love with the camber. Could be his optimal is a straight track with cut. Dream of Dreams should run well but it's a competitive race. Would be against Limato who has run below form here before.

    The WFA scale is overly generous to the 3yos not just in the Goodwood Cup, which is obvious - but also in the Sussex. In the former I'm gonna be putting Santiago in a multiple or two. 15Lbs is daft imo. In the latter for me in a good renewal I'd only favour an older horse if they had a class edge. I reckon they only win terrible renewals - Lightning Spear, Here Comes When, Solow. Frankel faced no proper 3yos when he won not that it would have mattered. I'd be against Mohaather and Circus Maximus on those grounds and at the prices Wichita is the obvious value call. His price diff with Kameko is excessive and Siskin is too short.

    The Nassau runs the Sussex close as the race of the week imo. Looks like Tawkeel was kept for this rather than going for the Diane which is unusual for a Frenchie. I'm reluctant to oppose her but Deirdre and Queen Power look too big. Nazeef looks a miler.

    Art Power would tempt me in the King George but will they take on Battaash here and at York? Doubt it given the trainer.

    Elsewhere Khalifa Sat has nice track form so would be my choice in the Gordon against English King and Tiger Moth. "
    Last edited by Marb; 26th July 2020 at 9:48 PM.

  5. #3
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    I'm not getting involved until I know the final decs and have a fair idea of the weather. I've done Tuesday's card and have earmarked a few definite bets. Again, I want to wait until the BOGs and special offers kick in on the morning of each day before getting involved unless I've reason to believe they'll contract substantially.

    In the meantime, I'm looking forward to the meeting and hoping the weather stays clement for the duration.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    I've done two so far and even if I dont collect I'm happy in the knowledge that I have beaten the price on SUCELLUS 33/1 into 16s and I've took 25/1 on BALTIC BARON in the golden mile.12/1 bet365.harry Bentley rides which is a concern,not because hes on it but the fact Tudhope isnt.dropped a couple of pounds since its disappointing run last time but ran very well in this race last year when he had to sit and suffer for a furlong and didnt get out in time.i still believe there is a big race in this horse.

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    Really fancy Tinandari in the 2nd race Tuesday. Had a nightmare run in the John Smith's, travelling round the whole field until the closing stage, then had switch inside - from last position on the outside rail - to pass the whole field bar the first 4. Never run at Goodwood, but handled Epsom well and won a couple in Ireland on ground with some cut in it. Trouble is, he's such a skinny price( 8/1 - 5 places best) and has a so-so draw, so they may decide not to blow a useful mark (I would, were he mine). Certainly worth watching, with the future in mind, though.
    “Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. ”
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I asked David Johnson on Twitter what their rating for Santiago was with the idea that he'd not have a huge amount to find with Strad' given the excessive wfa allowance. His reply was Stradivarius still has loads in hand. Tbh I'm not buying that - the last two years his master rating has been 127. He's on 130 now. Has he really improved? The race behind him at Ascot completely fell apart with Nayef Road managing to hold on for second despite setting a decent pace. Behind that horse you had Cross Counter who is basically a hound nowadays, Technician got injured, and some handicappers. This was a far cry from Vazirabad and Torcedor. I'm having a go on Santiago.

    The Lennox has cut up a bit and with rain in the area I think Safe Voyage is worth a go ew.

    I've barely touched handicaps all year but may back Fifth Position in the 1.45. Goodwood is a good track for the higher weighted horses and its also a far easier 10f than York which will suit him as his stamina seemed to ebb away in the John Smith's.

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    Volcanic Sky taken out of the long distance handicap. I have replaced him with Seinsational who I remember giving a positive shout to in the same race last year off exactly the same rating where he ran a gallant second.

    It turns out Boylesports have priced up both the races on Tuesday and Wednesday where we now know the declarations, plus the Anti Post races on Thursday and Friday.

    I'm about to have my flutter on my fancies with Boylesports then. They are best odds guaranteed now on races on Tuesday-Wednesday. Hopefully my other three picks will be declared tomorrow and the day after. In theory I could wait until tomorrow for this bet and to make sure Highland Chief is declared in the Gordon Stakes but I just want to get it on now.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th July 2020 at 2:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I asked David Johnson on Twitter what their rating for Santiago was with the idea that he'd not have a huge amount to find with Strad' given the excessive wfa allowance. His reply was Stradivarius still has loads in hand. Tbh I'm not buying that - the last two years his master rating has been 127. He's on 130 now. Has he really improved? The race behind him at Ascot completely fell apart with Nayef Road managing to hold on for second despite setting a decent pace. Behind that horse you had Cross Counter who is basically a hound nowadays, Technician got injured, and some handicappers. This was a far cry from Vazirabad and Torcedor. I'm having a go on Santiago.
    Visually the race fell apart but I've always had big figures for Stradivarius and just can't see past him this week. The three-year-olds this season, Love and Serpentine apart, are dire. Siskin looked good in the Irish Guineas but the form is worse than the Newmarket race - which is going some - and I'll be backing Mohaather like an odds-on shot.

    Back to Strad, that race may have fallen apart but he was hack cantering all over them from a long way out. As for whether he has improved, I was actually quite worried for him based on his run behind Ghaiyyath at Newmarket as I thought maybe they could have bottomed him that day with a hard race first time up at that trip but he skooshed up at Ascot while the winner went on to follow up easily in the Eclipse, form which Enable then Frankled. It may well be that the Newmarket race took more out of AVD as he couldn't get near Fanny Logan in the Hardwicke.

    Stradivarius looks to me to be better than ever this year and I'm looking forward to cheering him on this week.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Chartered 12/1 B365 looks a knocking ew bet in the lucky last, tomorrow. Blew in over this c/d last June, subsequently disappointed at Newmarket and has been off since. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but it may be significant that 2 of her lifetime 6 runs have been over this track.
    Last edited by reet hard; 27th July 2020 at 8:49 PM.
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    Not a lot I fancy tomorrow. Spanish Mission the biggest threat to Stradivarius in my opinion I fully expect him to run a monster tomorrow if given a proper gallop which he should be guaranteed here.
    Last edited by Danny; 27th July 2020 at 9:17 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Not a lot I fancy tomorrow. Spanish Mission the biggest threat to Stradivarius in my opinion I fully expect him to run a monster tomorrow if given a proper gallop which he should be guaranteed here.
    I'd rather try and juggle alligators than lay the prices they are currently throwing around on the exchanges about this, utterly insane ! I know Strad is a tough cookie but I'd have Spanish Mission at single figure odds.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I'd rather try and juggle alligators than lay the prices they are currently throwing around on the exchanges about this, utterly insane ! I know Strad is a tough cookie but I'd have Spanish Mission at single figure odds.
    Love him and Desert Encounter who will be worth a go to repeat his Glorious win

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    Tricky day (what’s new!) and could really do with seeing how the ground looks after the first. Here are a few I fancy:
    1. Angel Power w Secret Return ew
    2. So many I fancy but have to make decisions so draw factor coming into it.
    I liked Maydanny (Johnston factor at Goodwood) but Crowley sticks with Restorer....mmmmm! Yuri Gagarin had loads of weight last time so 8 8 is a factor. Fifth Position wears first time blinkers. Obviously Cape Cavalli and Derevo have a neck but draw has done them no favour. Think I will play between first three mentioned but look at them in paddock.
    3. I was all over Battleground at Ascot and just hope he handles track as he’s a big colt. Stuck him in double with Space Blues.
    4. Like the fav and may well do Glorious Journey ew but another to look at in paddock as he’s been off a while.
    5. Think Santiago could be dangerous off a stone less.
    6. Well Done Fox ew
    7. Leave
    8. Asiaaf
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Yeah have been waiting for your input, Jinny!

    My first pick today, Red October in the 1.45, has drifted from 12s to 33's! It seems no one wants it. At least I got best odds guaranteed each way. I suppose I would be happy if he got placed now.

    Good luck all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    Tricky day (what’s new!) and could really do with seeing how the ground looks after the first. Here are a few I fancy:
    1. Angel Power w Secret Return ew
    2. So many I fancy but have to make decisions so draw factor coming into it.
    I liked Maydanny (Johnston factor at Goodwood) but Crowley sticks with Restorer....mmmmm! Yuri Gagarin had loads of weight last time so 8 8 is a factor. Fifth Position wears first time blinkers. Obviously Cape Cavalli and Derevo have a neck but draw has done them no favour. Think I will play between first three mentioned but look at them in paddock.
    3. I was all over Battleground at Ascot and just hope he handles track as he’s a big colt. Stuck him in double with Space Blues.
    4. Like the fav and may well do Glorious Journey ew but another to look at in paddock as he’s been off a while.
    5. Think Santiago could be dangerous off a stone less.
    6. Well Done Fox ew
    7. Leave
    8. Asiaaf
    J
    Fwiw, Jinny, Jim Crowley may have struggled to make the weight on Maydanny. Had a small ew myself.
    “Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. ”
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    Yes I checked and realised that his lowest weight is 8 7. So I backed Maydanny. Johnston farms this meeting especially in handicaps.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Really fancy Tinandari in the 2nd race Tuesday. Had a nightmare run in the John Smith's, travelling round the whole field until the closing stage, then had switch inside - from last position on the outside rail - to pass the whole field bar the first 4. Never run at Goodwood, but handled Epsom well and won a couple in Ireland on ground with some cut in it. Trouble is, he's such a skinny price( 8/1 - 5 places best) and has a so-so draw, so they may decide not to blow a useful mark (I would, were he mine). Certainly worth watching, with the future in mind, though.
    deffo one for the notebook!
    “Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. ”
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    Beat Le Bon N/R.

    I wonder if they'll run him in the Golden Mile. A bit of a mickey take declaring him for the Lennox if they plan to run him in the golden mile.

    Well done Maydanny backers.

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    Even more all over Battleground now. He really is a lovely colt.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    (Flat) race of the year?

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