It would appear that I owe William Hills, 10bet and and Sport Nation an apology. Following yesterday's Prix Robert Lejeune, attherraces' French expert Laurent Barbarin informed viewers that the connections of Baladin de Mesc do apparently have designs on a campaign which includes a visit to Cheltenham next spring. May this serve as a reminder that while I may be fairy adept at researching this topic, my sources are essentially restricted to what is available in the public domain and my ear is no closer to the ground than any other five foot nine-ish gentleman. Though it would be disingenuous for me to retract the implication that bookmakers are deceitful parasites, it was incorrect of me to use Baladin de Mesc's inclusion on some Triumph lists as a justification and for that, I apologise.
For those who missed yesterday's race, the replay can be found here. At odds of 10.2/1, Hermes Baie was not particularly well fancied but he was runner up on his debut behind Jeu de Paume and got off the mark on his next start in June on his first run at Auteuil. The front two pulled clear of the remainder and if Baladin de Mesc is to run in the UK, he brings with him form of a most respectable standard in the context of those who have already been imported.
Now from a French trained horse listed at 33/1 for the Triumph, we move on to a Scottish trained one currently available at 66/1.
Scotland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow at Perth. Races at the venue do not usually take much winning as the average seasonal RPR of 110 for its victors attests. In terms of class, with Lucinda Russell's newcomer a possible exception, the standard of tomorrow's race looks no better than average. Nevertheless, three of the runners have winning flat form and two have been placed over hurdles so it looks far from a desperate contest. Perth is a flat track which while easy from a configuration perspective, can encourage more testing conditions when tactics are involved. The average winning DIs for juveniles are 1.46 mean and 1.12 median which are lower than those for all runners which stand at 1.49 and 1.32. While these figures are in keeping with the general stamina demands of the division, they are only marginally more testing than the average UK racecourse. The completion rate of 88.10% makes Perth a fairer than average racecourse for juvenile hurdlers.
Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 j4-0-1 (107) 94 99
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
After showing what was effectively nothing in three starts on the flat, Billy The Squid ran with only a modicum of promise on his hurdles debut at Market Rasen. Since then however, his jumping has improved with every run and his form is such that he would have twice finished runner up on his latest two starts but for a dramatic error at the last at Southwell which gave his jockey no chance of staying on board. He was a tired horse on that latest outing three weeks ago and it remains to be seen how that run will have affected his confidence. He also appears to be exposed as no better than a 100 rated animal, but he has been consistent recently and has shown enough to be competitive in this company.
Jan Wellens chg Olly Murphy f6-1-0 (63) 67
Dutch Art (Pivotal){6-e}(1.80) 4/2 Elusive Dream 1st Mersey Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2008
Jan Wellens had six starts on the flat in Ireland for Ger Lyons and was described by his former trainer as one that could be turned into a jumper after winning a Roscommon handicap on his penultimate start back in June. He looked green that day and he more ground out the victory rather than winning after an explosive burst but the second, third and fourth have since either won or been placed so it is fair form for the level. However, after being sent off as 6/4 favourite next time, he could only finish last in a Sligo handicap on his final start for the yard. He has since joined the Olly Murphy stable which has had three winners from fourteen juveniles and the improvement rate of 54.55% is respectable. Figures for those leaving the Ger Lyons yard are also respectable as his former inmates have a 25% winner to runner ratio and an improvement rate of 51.22%. Richard Johnson has a healthy 22% strike rate when teaming up with Olly Murphy although this mount is one of four he has on the card so it is not as though he has come up for the one ride. Jan Wellens is from the family of classy novice hurdler Elusive Dream but the only other jumper on the damline is the low-grade winner Virtus who is a half-brother to the granddam. The sirelines are even less encouraging for the discipline. Pivotal's 16.95% winner to runner rate as a damsire is acceptable if below average but the poor record of sire Dutch Art can not be understated. Only one of his fourteen juvenile hurdlers have won a race from forty-two starts and that came in March 2013 when Nicky Henderson's Little Dutch Girl won an atrocious fillies' race at Taunton at odds of 1/7f. This is not for a lack of quality flat form either as the only reason Dutch Art's improvement rate is 10% instead of 0% is that the 74 rated Aglaophonos finished second in a Ludlow juvenile in 2013. The best of Jan Wellens' flat form merely entitles him to be competitive at this level and given his sire's poor record in the discipline, the improvement needed for him to excel here is not especially likely. A reported preference for softer ground also goes against his favour in tomorrow's race.
Jorgie chg Jim Goldie f8-0-1 (51) 55
George Vancouver (Lahib){9}(1.67) 4/3 Megans Joy 1st Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2008
Jorgie is without a win in eight starts on the flat and his career best in that discipline was a neck second in a soft ground Musselburgh classified stakes on his first start for Jim Goldie three outings ago. The yard was able to win this race in 2009 with Tillietudlem but its other four runners were all well beaten at long odds. There are no notable jumpers on the immediate damline but the likes of Megans Joy (4/3), Happy Diva (4/4) and Embittered (4/5) do appear further back. Lahib has a respectable winners-to-runners rate of 27.78% as a damsire and though George Vancouver is without a winner from two juveniles in the UK, he has had three-year-old winners in France.
Le Magnifique chg Keith Dalgleish f3-0-1 (DeF) 50
Kamsin (Pentire){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Loup de Mer 4th Grande Course de Haies de Pau (L), Pau 2010
After three starts on the continent for Andreas Wohler, Le Magnifique is set to make his UK debut tomorrow. The latest of those flat efforts came in a Hoppegarten maiden (brown silks, maroon cap) back in May. There he finished seven lengths behind Kellahen who would win his next three starts, including a Hanover listed contest, before finishing well beaten in the German Derby. The runner-up would go on to win a Munich listed race before finishing fifth in the German Derby while the third would take a pair of minor contests at Hamburg and Dusseldorf. It is difficult to measure the value of this form. Working from the front two who have achieved pattern class form, and the horse who finished just ahead of him who is currently rated 64, a mark in the mid-sixties might be a more appropriate assessment of his abilities than the RPR of 50 he earned last year at Saint Cloud. Three of the seven Andreas Wohler imports since 2008/09 have won as juvenile hurdlers although they all had demonstrably better form than Le Magnifique. A quarter of Keith Dalgleish's juvenile hurdlers have also been winners and he also took this prize in 2017 with Eneko who began his career in French bumpers. Kamsin has a respectable record as a sire of juveniles with a third of his runners, including the useful Adjali, winning on both sides of the channel. Le Magnifique's dam is a half-sister to a pair of useful jumpers in Loup de Mer and La Coquette along with 2007 Prix du Cadran winner Le Mirable. Champion Hurdler Punjabi also appears further back on the damline at 5/4. Le Magnifique does not have much in the way of flat form but his profile is such that he should be able to at least match whatever he has achieved in that discipline.
Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (80) 89
Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
Local trainer Lucinda Russell does not have the strongest record in the division as her winner to runner rate since 2008/09 is just 14.29% and the last of those winners came in April 2013. However, recent 38,000 guineas Tattersalls purchase Red Missile is her highest rated recruit in a decade and the form of his decisive five length win in a twelve-furlong Lingfield maiden has since been boosted. Third placed Ocean Wind completed a brace with a four-length victory in the Cesarewitch Trial off 89 and the seventh and eighth are also subsequent winners. William Haggas graduates, which include Cracker Factory, Park Paddocks and Prabeni, have above average figures in juvenile hurdles and 52.38% of them also show improvement for the switch between codes. Red Missile's pedigree is not inundated with jumpers but his dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Carry On Sydney. Sire Battle Of Marengo's first crop of juveniles counted three winners from eight including Wensleydale Hurdle runner-up Maria Magdalena and Prix Alain du Breil fifth Pinaclouddown. The yard's recent form is not brilliant nor is her record in this particular race. However, two of her four winning juveniles since 2008/09 won at first time of asking and Red Missile's flat form is much the strongest seen in the division this season. While the Triumph Hurdle quote is probably premature, Red Missile looks most intriguing in the context of this contest.
Ten Thousand Stars chf Brian Ellison f7-1-1 (62) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 89 100
Toronado (Green Tune){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Le Vagabond 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2015
Ten Thousand Stars was perhaps unlucky not to win on her hurdles debut at Sedgefield four weeks ago as she was carried off a true course by the winner and went down by just three-quarters of a length. The form of that race has since been well advertised as second placed Talking About You was an emphatic winner at Fontwell while the winner, Historic Heart, ran well to finish fourth in an open-aged handicap at the same venue. Ten Thousand Stars' jumping on her debut was not good and she was keen in the early stages although this was probably exacerbated by the slow early pace. Brian Ellison's record in juvenile hurdles since 2008/09 is much the best of all the trainers represented in this field and record of 27 winners from 75 runners is well above average. With a winner and a second from two participants, his record in this particular race is also decent. While his juveniles largely carry their debut form to their second outing, Ten Thousand Stars left plenty to improve on in the jumping department and as the standard of her first run is already compelling in the context of this race, she should provide a decent test for Lucinda Russell's newcomer.
Strong prospects
1. Red Missile
Reasonable prospects
2. Ten Thousand Stars
Feasible prospects
3. Le Magnifique
4. Billy The Squid
Moderate prospects
5. Jan Wellens
Negligible prospects
6. Jorgie