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Thread: Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

  1. #21
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    This year's Tattersalls July Sale was an encouraging one for the industry as few horses went unsold and the prices achieved by the top lots were in line with expectations. However, for the juvenile hurdle enthusiast, there was little to get excited over as the sale produced very few transactions with designs on the sphere. Regarding the lots fetching over 18,000gns, NBB Racing, who have acted on behalf of Gary Moore and Dr Richard Newland in the past, brought a pair of unraced fillies from Godolphin. Craig and Laura Buckingham, whose charges have ran over the jumps, had a colt and a gelding for 20,000 and 18,000 while More Than A Prince, who fetched 58,000gns, is set to be given time and a gelding operation. At this juncture, the only horse who more likely than not to contest juvenile hurdles Pawpaw.

    Pawpaw bg P Webber 5-1-1 (72) 77
    Showcasing (Teofilo){1-n}(1.00) 2/1 Double Deputy 111 2x1st Handicap Hurdle (95,105), Market Rasen 2007
    Second then first in his two starts this season, both ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield, Pawpaw joins Paul Webber with a flat rating of 72. Closely related to a couple of classic placed horses (2/1 Lend A Hand 2nd 1998 2000 Guineas, 3/2 Tamure 2nd 1995 Epsom Derby), Pawpaw is out of a half sister to a dual hurdles winner and can find classy eighties hurdler Cima 6/4 on the damsline. Showcasing has made a fair start with juvenile hurdlers with two of his nine charges finding success in the sphere although his jumpers have yet to win over any ground softer than good or at any distance beyond two easy miles. Teofilo is a slightly above average damsire of juveniles with a 40% improvement rate between codes. Trainer Paul Webber is zero from eight with juveniles since 2012/13 and is historically without notable juvenile prizes to his name. While Pawpaw would be his most expensive recruit during that time, only one of eleven ex-Clive Cox inmates (Nicky Henerson's Little Dutch Girl) have won in the sphere.

    With the sale failing to provide much else to discuss, here are three horses from France who are not currently listed in any markets for the Triumph Hurdle but are likely to ply their trade in the UK or Ireland this season.

    Busselton bg J P O'Brien 1-1-0
    Mastercraftsman (Rock Of Gibraltar){1-u}(2.43) 5/4 Soldier On Parade runs tomorrow at Bangor
    Like the Prix Rush and the Prix Grandak, the Prix Wild Monarch is another race for horses making their first appearances over hurdles. Recent graduates include Footpad, Dolas and Botox Has in keeping with its tradition of introducing some top class animals to the game over the years such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce to name but a few. This year's edition, boasting a large field of nineteen starters, was won by Busselton who was representing the David Cottin yard. His fourth dam, 1983 1000 Guineas winner Ma Biche, has not supplemented her successes on the racecourse in the breeding sheds and Busselton is her only descendant to have won over obstacles. Rock Of Gibraltar was capable as a sire of juveniles but offers little enthusiasm as a damsire. However, for all that the distaff side is a proverbial family tree of woe, sire Mastercraftsman is the leading sire of juveniles by individual winners which amounts to a respectable 29% of all runners. Furthermore, two of the three Joseph O'Brien juveniles who started in French Hurdle races have won and the third, Fine Brunello, chased home stablemate and fellow import Fakir d'Oudairies in the Grade Two Finesse in 2019. This season's Prix Wild Monarch has yet to produce any winners from thirteen attempts although fourth placed Hades was second next time in the Prix Rocking Chair and he's the only representative from the first four who were ten lengths clear of the remainder.

    State Man chg Unknown 1-0-1
    Doctor Dino (Johann Quatz){4-r}(0.71) 0.5 Statuaire 2nd Prix Finot (listed), Auteuil 2018
    Second behind Busselton was State Man who finished two lengths behind the winner. By Doctor Dino, a most capable stallion who can count Sceau Royal, Sharjah and Master Dino amongst his offspring, State Man also has juvenile credentials on the damline. His half sister was second in the Prix Finot two seasons ago while the dam, who incidentally was third in the Fillies' Wild Monarch, collected the listed Prix de Chambly in 2009. State Man is down has being exported on the France Gallop site although information of his whereabouts is not readily available online. He was trained by Daniela Mele for his sole start and her other export to the UK was Stratagem who ran for Paul Nicholls - a trainer who has a history of acquiring runners from the Prix Wild Monarch. Nevertheless, the notion that State Man might well be at Ditcheat is pure conjecture on my part.

    Hope You Do bg Unknown 1-1-0
    Boris de Deauville (Nononito){3-c}(2.00) 2/1 Bidourey 3x1st Juvenile Hurdles 2014/15
    Registered as "sold" on France Galop, Hope You Do won a bumper at Angers on the 23rd of May by two lengths. The runner up has subsequently finished second at Les Sables d'Olonne and the third placed Hockney Vallis improved one position on his return to Angers. The late Boris de Deauville, sire of dual listed hurdle winner Baxter, is one winner from one runner with his juveniles in the UK after Pola Chance won a Wetherby handicap off 92. Hope You Do himself is out of a half sister to David Pipe's Bidourey who also won an AQPS flat race on his debut for Isabelle Pacault.

    Shifting to the topic of tomorrow's race at Bangor, it is with deep contrition that I must publish erratum and addenda. Firstly, on two occasions I mistakenly said that the race at Newton Abbot took place on Monday when in fact, it was Tuesday. Secondly, I neglected to give due consideration to the exacerbated stamina concerns that Bangor will present to Debt Of Honour and consequently, I can only consider his prospects to be moderate rather than feasible. Furthermore, in light of Gary Moore finally getting a winner at Bath last night, Big Jimbo's prospects can be elevated from moderate to feasible. The revised prospects summary now reads as follows;-

    Strong prospects
    1. Hiconic
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Soldier On Parade
    Feasible prospects
    3. Big Jimbo
    Moderate prospects (swap Depardieu and Debt Of Honour in the event of drying ground)
    4. Depardieu
    5. Debt Of Honour
    Negligible prospects
    6. Current
    7. Avis Bay
    8. Jean Marie

    tl:dr
    • The Tattersalls July Sales probably didn't see the Triumph Hurdle winner
    • The first two in the Prix Wild Monarch might be running in Ireland and maybe the UK. Each have interesting credentials
    • There's also some AQPS horse who might run in the UK
    • I have made a slight amendment to my assessment of tomorrow's race on the basis of unconsidered evidence and Gary Moore sending out a winner last night.

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  3. #22
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    Today's race at Bangor has an overall better look than Newton Abbot's curtain raiser and the form has a solid air about it. Soldier On Parade was very strong in the market and backed near enough into joint favouritism. While this was indicative of a horse knowing its business for an in-form yard, I still would not have had the front two so close in the betting. Nevertheless, the rest of the market gave a fair assessment of the participants and there did not appear to be any plot horses in the field. While races of this nature can be slowly run affairs, there was no dawdling in today's contest with four horses vying for the lead heading to the first. Furthermore, while there was plenty of novicey jumping on show, there were no instances of significant interference or bad luck stories.

    Hiconic, who won at Newton Abbot on Tuesday, was even more impressive with her win today. By juvenile standards, she was again well above average in her jumping and her attitude although it is not impossible to find minor flaws with the performance. She had to be woken up going into the third and became rather fresh before and after the fourth. Kielan Woods had to restrain her in order to give her a breather and in fairness, she did comply. She did not make a great shape at the fifth but she got away fine and she also slightly trailed her hind legs through the second last. Evidently, a certain pedantry is necessary to find negatives in her effort and should only serve as a demonstration of Hiconic not being the finished article. The positives are both eminent and laudable. The proficiency with which she jumped several of these flights would befit a seasoned handicapper, and there was a touch of class about the way she dropped the field and her main rival before running through the line under hands and heels. A performance rating exceeding 110 would be easily justified. Talk of races such as the Triumph would be premature and fanciful, particularly as the French imports could be useful and anything could emerge from the flat. Nevertheless, with the proliferation of pattern class juvenile and novice hurdles for fillies, it would not be completely absurd to imagine that Hiconic could collect some black type this season.

    Soldier On Parade brought consistent and fair form from the flat and was the subject of significant market support before the off. He was backed as though he knew his job and put in a round which was very acceptable for a debut effort. Closely following the leader throughout, there were mild critiques that could be made about half of his jumps such as marginal deviations, slight hesitancy and a misjudging of his stride. Nevertheless, he was also foot perfect at a few others and his imperfect jumps offer encouragement rather than concern for the future. He travelled nicely and even though it was in keeping with his flat superiority, he still pulled clear from the remainder with the minimum off fuss. Keeping on to the line and finishing twenty-one lengths clear off the third, he can be given a rating of at least 104 and be expected to improve on that figure next time.

    Big Jimbo was kept towards the rear but travelled well enough within himself before staying on for a distant third. His jumping was not atrocious but his round did lack confidence. The market did not indicate any great expectations and the effort is representative of a horse who has trained on during his absence without improving leaps and bounds. Despite being a Helmet x Pastoral Pursuits cross, stamina would not be a concern over two miles and given experience and perhaps a gelding operation, can improve on a low 80s mark.

    Debt Of Honour did not put in an entirely fluent round but the blinkers appear to have had a telling effect as this was a significant improvement on his debut effort. He raced more prominently than at Newton Abbot and dropped away when reserves were put to the test. There is potential for him to be involved in a low grade race given the right conditions but he would not warrant particular consideration in average company.

    Current gave plenty of trouble going to post and while she was initially held up, jockey Lee Edwards was resigned to allowing her her head and she moved to a more prominent position before halfway. Unsurprisingly, she weakened to finish over forty-four lengths behind the winner. She did actually jump quite well and does have something resembling pace but while there might be a bad enough race for her to run into a place on the flat, she would need an atrocious race ran at a crawl over jumps.

    Avis Bay was a further twenty lengths behind and finished last of the six finishers. While she was mildly hampered at the second it was not enough to have affected her performance and she was not a natural jumper.

    Depardieu initially raced prominently but his jumping was error strewn and he found himself outpaced before the race reached the halfway point. He was soon dropped before pulling up. While a trip might see him a better light down the line, this effort was devoid of promise.

    Jean Marie was a handful going to post, started off in rear, put down at several hurdles and was soon detached before pulling up a long way out.

    • Hiconic won very nicely and could be quite useful
    • Soldier On Parade put in a solid performance and has scope for further improvement
    • Big Jimbo ran a moderate to fair race but could also improve
    • Debt Of Honour jumped better than last time but might want a moderate field on a sharp track
    • Current is poor but not hopeless although might not get a NH trip
    • Avis Bay, Depardieu and Jean Marie put in poor performances

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  5. #23
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    The third juvenile race of the season takes place at Stratford on Tuesday and is set to feature the winner of the first two in Hiconic. Now under a double penalty, the mare faces a new challenge as both Alan King and Tom George have entered their first juvenile hurdlers this term. Despite being a sharp and relative track, dosage indexes suggest that Stratford presents a more demanding test for the juvenile than either Newton Abbot or Bangor with the median DI of the past 64 winners a mere 0.93. The current ground description of good to soft may place further emphasis on stamina.

    Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j2-2-0 105
    Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
    Hiconic made it two from two last weekend at Bangor with a performance which marked further improvement from her already satisfying debut win at Newton Abbot. She can set her own pace, jump very cleanly and respond well to instruction. The quality of her opposition has not been exceptional but the form of her latest win had a solid look to it and warranted a mark of at least 110 on account of her professionalism and ease of victory. The double penalty will naturally make matters more difficult but she still sets a decent standard and has very few questions to answer so will be a very strong contender if showing no ill effects for her third race in quick succession.

    Bannister bg T George 1-0-0 (-) 66
    Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) .5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
    Bannister had his sole start on the flat last October in a mile maiden at Windsor where he looked as though the experience would do him good. The bare form of that race does not read very well with only one winner being produced from twenty-six runs. Nevertheless, those that finished around him have produced performances that justify ratings in the low seventies. Furthermore, there are several things to like about his profile with this new discipline in mind. His stallion Olympic Glory made a fine start with his first juveniles last term producing two winners from five runners and damsire Kendor has a very healthy 75% winners to runners ratio. Tom George also has a decent strike rate with his juveniles although his better ones do tend to be imported. Furthermore, his few runners this season have not been firing and those running in a hood for the yard do not fare well historically. Nevertheless, Bannister is not without potential and can be a threat if Hiconic under-performs.

    Clan Spirit bg J Portman 1-0-0 (-) 0
    Cable Bay (Clodovil){10-c}(0.82) .5 Foxy's Spirit 6th Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2009
    Unfancied at 100/1 when making his debut in a Kempton novice stakes last month, Clan Spirit ran no sort of race. Starting awkwardly and pulling hard, he was eased after hanging in the straight to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. Cable Bay is still winless with flat horses beyond a mile and his sole hurdler finished tailed off last week. While the trainer's horses can improve for a switch from the flat, he is without a juvenile winner from his past twelve runners.

    Dragon Man bg M Young 3-0-0 (47) 45
    Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
    Max Young is due to send out his first runner as a trainer with the ex-Michael Grassick trained Dragon Man. Twice closer to last than first last August at the Curragh and Tipperary, Dragon Man was last seen at the beginning of June beaten almost thirty lengths in a Naas maiden at 300/1. Although his granddam is a half sister to Scorpion and he can find Moorcroft Boy (7/3) and Blue Charm (7/4) in the echos of his pedigree, his sire has only one winning juvenile from eight offspring.

    Fiach Stoney bg M Loughnane 3-0-0 (52) 48
    Urban Poet (Excellent Art){9-c}(2.08) 2/0 Randall's Diana 1st Handicap Hurdle (88), Listowel 2008
    While he may be forgiven for his well beaten ninth of nine in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, his first two starts back in January offer little encouragement. The form of those he has finished nearby is devoid of promise for this level and his keenness is also a concern. Although his granddam was a dual winner over hurdles and his damsire produced some successes in the sphere, these factors alone would not be enough to cause optimism.

    Kings Creek bg A King 5-0-0 (62) 65
    Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 3/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
    Alan King has had a rather barren spell with the Triumph Hurdle in recent years but he is still a force to be reckoned with in the division. From the seventy-one trainers with fifteen or more runners since the 2011/12 season, he is surpassed only by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins for winners/runners and has the best record from those with fifty or more juveniles for improving their charges from flat to jumps. Kings Creek, a maiden after five starts on the flat, brings a rating of 62 and while Alan King has won with lower rated juveniles (Forgiving Glance and Gimme Five), the overall profile presents vulnerabilities. The rating of 62, initially 66 at the start of the campaign, is still reasonable in the context of this race but Kings Creek has not shaped like an obvious stayer in his races and neither his tendency to run green and drift to the right, nor the fact he has already undergone a wind operation are encouraging. His pedigree is speed rather than stamina laden and while Elusive Quality has produced winning hurdlers, he has not done so with juveniles and his progeny are not given to improving for the switch to jumps. Kings Creek still has to be entitled to respect on the basis of his trainer and bare form but there will be much stronger prospects back at the yard.

    Pink Jazz bg S Curran 10-1-1 (59) 62
    Red Jazz (Captain Marvelous){2-f}(1.67) 2/1 Band Of Blood 147 4th Drinmore Novices Chase, Fairyhouse 2014
    Pink Jazz began his career with Gordon Elliott and landed a gamble for the yard in a Wolverhampton handicap back in January. He came very close to doubling his tally on his debut for the current yard in a similar class contest at Kempton when held by just a nose. The form of the latter race has worked out better than the former and the standard of these runs puts him roughly on a par with Kings Creek. However, while his attitude seems fair enough, he did rather shirk out of the issue after being slightly hampered at Windsor last time and is another who does not look a natural stayer. His dam is a half sister to the decent Band Of Blood and Go Native is a 5/6 relative but sire Red Jazz, a son of Johannesburg, has yet to produce a winning hurdler and damsire Captain Marvelous's useful juvenile Lindenhurst was a King's Theatre cross. Furthermore, the yard has not sent out a winning juvenile since Prince Pippin landed a quickfire double in November 2009.

    Royal Bassett bg R Dickin 4-0-1 (61) 58
    Wootton Bassett (Dashing Blade){1-h}(1.40) .5 Donnadream 1st 4YO Hurdle, Enghien 2015
    Royal Bassett started at 300/1 when producing his best form to date in a novices stakes at Newmarket where he led briefly before eventually finishing eighteen lengths third of five behind subsequent Bahrain Trophy winner and leading St Leger candidate Al Aasy. On the back of that effort, he was allotted a mark of 65 which was not deemed generous by the market as he started 125/1 in a two mile handicap at Ascot. The market was proven correct as he was beaten forty-eight lengths and his current mark of 61 would still appear to flatter him. His pedigree is not devoid of promise as he is a half brother to a winning hurdler, Wooton Bassett has won with two of his three hurdle runners and Dashing Blade mares have produced a couple of minor winning juveniles. However, Robin Dickin has yet to saddle a winning juvenile and has gone over a year since a winner of any nature.

    Salento bg S Kittow 1-0-0 (-) 24
    Olympic Glory (Street Cry){6-d}(0.82) 3/3 Penglai Pavilion 1st Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2015
    Bruno de Montzey was the source of last season's Scottish Triumph winner Thyme White although while that former stablemate was thought good enough to enter in a Group 3 at Longchamp, Salento was a well beaten last of six in a race for unraced colts and geldings on his sole start. Stuart Kittow, who won a Uttoxeter handicap last week, has yet to saddle a winning juvenile but there is some minor encouragement in the breeding. The aforementioned Olympic Glory has made a promising start and there are decent hurdlers on the damline including Penglai Pavilion and five-time winner Noukari. Nevertheless, there would still need to be significant improvement on the flat effort.

    Swell Swilly chg C Hills 3-0-0 (48) 44
    Australia (Pivotal){14-b}(1.13) 7/9 Harper Valley 3rd Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
    Australia made a promising start with his first crop of jumpers, producing three winners including the useful Lord Lamington. While these three winners were rated at least a stone better than Swell Swilly on the flat, three fifths of his progeny improved for the switch from flat to jumps including the Pivotal cross Metal Man. However, Swell Swilly has shown nothing more than a modicum of ability on the flat in three starts during which he has ran green, has no jumping stock on his immediate damline and his trainer has yet to saddle a jumps winner.

    Strong prospects
    1.Hiconic
    Reasonable prospects
    2.Bannister
    3.Kings Creek
    4.Pink Jazz
    Feasible prospects
    5.Salento
    Moderate prospects
    6.Royal Bassett
    7.Swell Swilly
    Negligible prospects
    8.Fiach Stoney
    9.Dragon Man
    10.Clan Spirit

    tl:dr
    • Stamina useful at Stratford despite course's characteristics
    • Hiconic sets standard that still exceeds double penalty
    • Bannister's debut not without promise and sire looks good but hood and trainer form are concerns
    • Kings Creek represents strong yard but pedigree and running style are not encouraging
    • Pink Jazz has won on the flat but stamina is a concern
    • Salento was poor on his only start but could improve
    • Royal Bassett was probably flattered by his Newmarket run
    • Swell Swilly's sire is looking decent but that's the sum of his case
    • Flach Stoney offers little encouragement from flat runs
    • Dragon Man looks short of class for debutant trainer
    • Clan Spirit showed nothing on his sole start

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  7. #24
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    Hiconic made it a clean sweep of this season's juvenile races today at Stratford in a contest which probably had the most strength in depth seen thus far. The money beforehand for Kings Creek appears to have been a reflection of Alan King's reputation than that of the horse itself and Royal Bassett's shortening odds were a fair readjustment of the market. The ground had dried up over the weekend but a keen pace ensured that there was no hiding place and with the right horses pulling well clear at the end, the form looks solid.

    Hiconic had been admirably professional in her first two starts over hurdles and was entitled to win on her previous performances. She still did things very nicely and while she was extended more so here than during her previous victories, this would still represent further improvement. A rating of at least 120 would be wholly appropriate and while she would still need to improve quite considerably to be thought of in festival terms, a crack at black type would be entirely warranted.

    Bannister was green on his sole flat run last year and the application of the hood and his being led down to the start foreshadowed his behaviour here. Pulling his way to the front early on, he raced very keenly through the opening phases of the race to the undoubted detriment of his performance as his jumping somewhat deteriorated in the closing stages. Nevertheless, he did jump well up to that point and did battle to fend off Pink Jazz to hold on to second place. Taking his general profile alongside the improvement that can be expected with experience, it is not difficult to imaging him enjoying some success in this discipline.

    Pink Jazz was another who pulled hard early on but did settle somewhat quicker after getting a lead from the aforementioned horse. Capable of honest efforts on the flat, he jumped well for the most part and made a fair account of himself on his hurdling debut. It is not guaranteed that he will replicate this performance next time and he may be better served by handicaps than by open company but this was not an effort without promise.

    Kings Creek's performance was rather unremarkable in the sense that he went quietly about his business without drawing attention. Jumping soundly and travelling professionally, he was the first of the front four to come off the bridle before being beaten by fourteen lengths. While there might be a weak enough race for him somewhere on the strength of this outing, he does not seem to have as much scope as the runner up and his stamina looks fairly limited at this stage.

    Royal Bassett was backed from 80/1 in the morning to 22/1, presumably on the strength of his flattering Newmarket effort. He was the last of the outsiders to let go of the front four and accordingly got the best of a bunched finish for a tailed off fifth place. His jumping could improve as he was big over a few of his jumps as well as pecking at the third but overall there is no immediate promise.

    Fiach Stoney's jumping lacked fluency from the start and while he was able to briefly regain the bit after being pushed along at half-way, there is little else of encouragement to take out of this run.

    Swell Swilly was another whose jumping left much to be desired and does not look like a future winner.

    Salento was actually pretty neat at a couple of his jumps but did not build on the lack of promise on his sole flat start in France.

    Dragon Man jumped alright at the first couple of hurdles, wandered around before jumping late at the third and pushed along after the next.

    Clan Spirit was a slow jumper who was the first to tail off before pulling up.

    • tl:dr
    • The race had strength in depth, was ran at a sound pace and the form horses came to the fore.
    • Hiconic improved again and while she is a long way from Grade One class, she is entitled to try for black type.
    • Bannister did not do himself any favours by racing keenly but his jumping was good and can improve with experience.
    • Pink Jazz gave a fair account and can improve but may need handicaps to be competitive.
    • Kings Creek was knew his business but might lack scope and stamina.
    • The rest of the field were a class behind.
    Last edited by Bachelors Hall; 21st July 2020 at 6:50 PM.

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  9. #25
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    Following on from the conversation with Maruco on the previous page, I felt compelled to respond by not only putting research into the dosage of juvenile hurdlers on my to-do list, but to also etch it off the to-do list one horse at a time. I would love to say that the time invested was time well spent on a wild and invigorating adventure through the fascinating intricacies of data analysis. The reality, however, was endless hours of repetitive data entry interrupted by brief spells of entering data on pedigreequery. Not to mention the guilt induced insomnia caused by my adding AQPS horses on a thoroughbred database. May Arkle have mercy on my soul.

    While this monument to well spent time has yet to reach full completion, there is a sufficient assembly of data from which to extrapolate some vague meaning. As a quick disclaimer - due to the limitations in the way Dosage Indexes are calculated, they can not lay a claim to any exacting and rigorous science and despite some very tangible patterns emerging from the research, they still best function as a contextualising guide rather than a trustworthy pathfinder. On the other hand, the RPRs used within this research are infallible... As ever, if there are any questions, comments, criticisms or the likes then they would be most welcome.

    The data is taken from those who raced over hurdles as juveniles from the 2011/12 season onwards and the first set will concern those who raced at least four times during their initial campaign. Four runs would provide more accurate data than one or two runs and although the success rates will be skewed accordingly, there is still a healthy sample size of 1587.

    The rows are the dosage indexes in bands and the columns are total horses in each band, number of winners amongst them, winner:runner rate, average wins per horse in the band, average run and strike rate, mean Dosage Index, median Dosage Index, mean peak RPR, median peak RPR.

    ________Total Wnrs W:R Wins Runs SR Mn DI Md DI Mn RPR Md RPR
    0.00-0.50 139 080 57.55% 0.84 5.07 16.57% 0.40 0.42 109.94 111.0
    0.51-0.75 239 135 56.49% 0.93 5.11 18.20% 0.63 0.63 109.89 110.0
    0.76-0.99 212 098 46.23% 0.77 5.21 14.78% 0.84 0.85 106.53 108.0
    1.00-1.00 139 067 48.20% 0.77 5.26 14.64% 1.00 1.00 104.59 103.0
    1.01-1.25 156 074 47.44% 0.70 5.12 13.67% 1.16 1.17 105.21 104.5
    1.26-1.50 167 071 42.51% 0.69 5.08 13.58% 1.39 1.40 101.58 104.0
    1.51-1.99 207 090 43.48% 0.62 5.02 12.35% 1.65 1.67 097.76 105.0
    2.00-2.49 152 069 45.39% 0.64 5.23 12.24% 2.19 2.20 100.36 103.5
    2.50-3.00 113 054 47.79% 0.64 5.43 11.79% 2.85 3.00 098.10 099.0
    3.01-15.0 063 015 23.81% 0.46 5.27 08.73% 4.75 4.00 100.03 103.0
    ALL____ 1587 753 47.45% 0.74 5.20 14.23% 1.42 1.15 104.58 106.0

    This is about as good as I could make this table look using underscores and zeros... Rather delightfully, the fact that there are discernible patterns as opposed to a completely chaotic assortment of numbers show that these efforts have not been a complete waste of time. In the simplest terms, the overarching finding is that the lower the dosage index, the better. This is shown almost perfectly in the race for race strike rate as with the exception of the lowest band, the percentage strike rate constantly decreases as the DI increases. Juveniles with sub 1.00 DIs also achieve higher RPRs than their more "brilliant" and "intermediate" counterparts. The figures follow the trend in a faithful manner for the most part with the blips within an acceptable range of variance. If one was to speculate on the wandering, perhaps it might be while a horse's class might be enough to win the occasional lesser race or place in a stronger one, a lack of stamina might make the difference between victory and defeat in the better races?

    Still looking at the horses with more than three runs as a juvenile, if we split the winners from the maidens or those who achieved RPRs exceeding 105 from those who did not, we find an almost identical contrast, telling us that a winning juvenile or an above average performing one will have a dosage index approximately 0.2 lower than its less successful counterparts;-

    ________Total Mean Median
    RPR >105_ 796 1.31 1.00
    RPR <106_ 791 1.52 1.22
    Winners___753 1.30 1.00
    Maidens___834 1.52 1.22

    Now for every juvenile since 2011/12 to have achieved a three digit RPR. This would ensure that the horses demonstrated some level of form and provides us with a sample size of 1673. The horses have been split into a band of 164-140 then bands of ten pounds thereafter. The columns show the amount of horses in each band followed by the mean and median DIs;-

    (164-140) 085 1.04 0.88
    (139-130) 189 1.18 1.00
    (129-120) 286 1.25 1.00
    (119-110) 497 1.32 1.11
    (109-100) 616 1.34 1.12

    For greater accuracy, here are the same bands but with horses who raced only once eliminated;-

    (164-140) 084 1.04 0.89
    (139-130) 184 1.19 1.00
    (129-120) 269 1.25 1.00
    (119-110) 449 1.35 1.13
    (109-100) 544 1.34 1.12

    And again but with horses with more than two runs qualifying;-

    (164-140) 077 1.07 0.90
    (139-130) 169 1.21 1.00
    (129-120) 238 1.28 1.00
    (119-110) 383 1.38 1.18
    (109-100) 429 1.38 1.18

    These figures consistently demonstrate that a lower DI is a common feature among the classier juvenile hurdlers. While it would be folly to proclaim any grand truths when it comes to the study of form and ludicrous to do so where breeding is concerned, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that stamina, particularly in the classier races, is a prerequisite to success in juvenile hurdles. Particularly as during this time period, only two of the eighty-five horses to have achieved an RPR of 140 or above had DIs exceeding 3.00. Neither of them were amongst the sixty-three on 142 or above.

    It is worth bearing in mind that as a horse's stamina tends to increase as it ages (or if you prefer, it loses its speed), a lack of staying power as a juvenile would not preclude a fruitful career in the long term over jumps. Also, there will always be exceptions and anomalies and as the dosage index will not paint the entire picture of a horse's genetic predisposition to distances, it is also crucial to consider the pedigree of each horse on its own merit. The two aforementioned juveniles who performed with higher DI provide fine examples. Charlie Parcs grandsire is Anabaa who was mentioned earlier in this thread as a capable source of stamina and while the sires on his dam's side were predominantly milers, the damsire Nikos was a crack National Hunt stallion counting the likes of Encore Un Peu, Nononito and Master Minded amongst his own and Apple's Jade, Houblon des Obeaux and Cokoriko as products of his dams. Fox Norton has a DI of 3.00 due in most part to the fact that his chefs-de-race forefathers (the ancestors whose presence determines the dosage index) only begin to appear on the fourth line of his pedigree.

    Furthermore, certain sire-lines will carry attributes which make them more than capable of producing good juvenile hurdlers despite a comparative lack of stamina. The precocious sprinter Danehill Dancer was capable of producing good hurdlers but apparently even better at producing sires of juveniles such as Jeremy, Mastercraftsman and Fast Company.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bachelors Hall View Post
    . Not to mention the guilt induced insomnia caused by my adding AQPS horses on a thoroughbred database. May Arkle have mercy on my soul.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bachelors Hall View Post
    Following on from the conversation with Maruco on the previous page, I felt compelled to respond by not only putting research into the dosage of juvenile hurdlers on my to-do list, but to also etch it off the to-do list one horse at a time. I would love to say that the time invested was time well spent on a wild and invigorating adventure through the fascinating intricacies of data analysis. The reality, however, was endless hours of repetitive data entry interrupted by brief spells of entering data on pedigreequery. Not to mention the guilt induced insomnia caused by my adding AQPS horses on a thoroughbred database. May Arkle have mercy on my soul.
    It feels like I owe you an apology BH, but the result is an incredibly good piece of work, so thankyou. It confirms my thoughts that dosage is definitely a factor to bring in to play with juveniles, but it needs to be applied alongside other criteria.

    Now your going to hate me for saying this, but what happens when you apply dosage to sires and damsires? Can you begin to eliminate certain sires and breeding lines within the data bands. What i mean by that is, are there sires that fit the dosage profiles in the higher bands but just don't sire winners of that class and above.

    If you began to hate me for setting you off on the arduous task you've just undertaken, I've also had another thought that is kind of the reverse of what you're working on at the moment. Often juveniles are accused of 'not training on'. I'm wondering if there is a sweet spot within the bands for juveniles improving/declining beyond their juvenile season, and again is there other criteria that can then be used to filter out further, thus statistically eliminating some data groups on probability.

    In both cases I suspect there will be both prominent sires and dam sires, and also some others that have much fewer runners that may fly under the radar. There will almost certainly be some that can be omitted too.

    I wouldn't blame you whatsoever for saying enough is enough, but if you have the appetite I suspect there may be something in my ramblings. As i think I've said previously I've done some of this work in the past, specifically in relation to marathon chases. Tiger Roll for example was not a total surprise. Tiger Roll was a decent juvenile, and then struggled for a couple of season in handicaps because of his mark. He didn't come in to his own until he went over fences as a 7 year old, and even then when he was stepped up in trip. Most juveniles are written off by then as not good enough by the top trainers when they reach seven. They've had 3 seasons over hurdles and appear to be on the downgrade. Tiger Roll won the NH Chase at 7 at his first go at 4 miles. Others by that stage usually end up slogging around gaff tracks for small stables who are desperate to get their previous 150 marks down to 110. I have a strong belief that trainers usually just think of juveniles as hurdlers who will perform up to 3 miles, but I've felt for some time that the classier stamina laden juveniles carefully campaigned and then switched to fences can make excellent staying chasers. I'm waffling on a bit now and not really getting what's in my head down on here so I'll come back to it and add more.
    Last edited by Maruco; 24th July 2020 at 9:37 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    but I've felt for some time that the classier stamina laden juveniles carefully campaigned and then switched to fences can make excellent staying chasers. I'm waffling on a bit now and not really getting what's in my head down on here so I'll come back to it and add more.
    I'm pretty sure the brother holds a similar opinion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    It feels like I owe you an apology BH, but the result is an incredibly good piece of work, so thankyou.
    My lamentations were (mostly) for comedic effect so an apology is not necessary. As a consequence of this research I have gone from having a faint conception of dosages to knowing a thing or two about the subject and my spreadsheet skills have also seen improvement. Indeed if there is to be gratitude then it should also extend in your direction. The study of juvenile hurdlers is a labour of love and the development of skills and a broader understanding of any subject is very much its own reward. Although if you must feel apologetic then I am sure we can negotiate a retainer of sorts. Gratitude also for Danny as it is always nice when an amusing thought is met with appreciation rather than concern...

    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    What happens when you apply dosage to sires and damsires?
    I'm glad you asked...

    Given that I already have some data lying around for sires and damsires, looking into the dosage element would be a natural progression. Particularly if, as mentioned in this thread's opening post, it might reveal that certain stallions have an aptitude for this rather niche discipline.

    Using those who have sired ten or more juvenile hurdlers since the 2011/12 season, I will first look at the average DIs grouped by the sire's winner to runner strike rate percentage.

    ________ Total Mean Median
    64%-30% 35 1.33 1.11
    29%-20% 43 1.59 1.53
    19%-10% 42 2.02 1.76
    09%-00% 31 1.86 1.61

    As with the juveniles themselves, there is also a very discernible pattern with their sires. In broad terms, the lower the DI, the higher the winner to runner strike rate although this takes a stumble among those with poor strike rates. An examination of this anomaly reveals that the average DI is dragged down by Beneficial, Kayf Tara, Milan, Oscar, Presenting and Scorpion. It would be unfair to suggest that these sires can not produce juvenile hurdlers as they will gave been presented with little to no suitable opportunities. The mares serviced by these stallions will not be given to precocity and the offspring who do run during their juvenile season will almost always be store horses out for experience. As such, when these stallions are removed from the figures, the average DIs for the band read as 2.15 and 1.95 mean and median respectively which leaves a firmly consistent set of figures.

    Interestingly, another stallion who weighs down the 9%-0% average is Kalanisi (1.43) who is without a winner from twelve foals during this time period. However, that he could count the likes of Alaivan, Barizan, Simarian, European Dream and, of course, Triumph Hurdle winning Katchit among his first crops supports the notion that the manner in which produce is bred and prepared for racing will impact its sires success rates.

    The second table looks at the percentage of offspring to have achieved RPRs exceeding 107. The National Hunt stallions have been removed from this data in advance and while there is not a pronounced difference towards the lower bands, the general pattern remains to be seen.

    ________ Total Mean Median
    64%-30% 42 1.36 1.16
    29%-20% 47 1.62 1.53
    19%-10% 36 2.14 2.01
    09%-00% 21 2.04 2.00
    This next chart may be of particular interest to those attempting to find the more unheralded National Hunt sires as it looks at the percentage of a stallion's progeny that improves for switching code. The figure is reached by subtracting the lower of the horse's official flat rating or highest flat RPR from the highest achieved jumps RPR and subtracting a further thirty-five pounds. Those with positive figures are assumed to have improved and those with negative figures are not. For the sake of integrity, only horses who have raced more than twice over hurdles AND have achieved an official rating are considered so as to reduce the skewing of the figures by lightly raced sorts.

    ________ Total Mean Median
    79%-52% 23 1.45 1.48
    50%-41% 27 1.72 1.58
    40%-00% 33 1.94 1.48

    These results show that sires whose progeny are more likely than not to improve for the switch of codes will have a lower DI than those who do not. However, there is a familiar cautionary tale here in that a slight shifting of parameters can quite dramatically alter a statistical narrative.

    ________ Total Mean Median
    79%-52% 23 1.45 1.48
    50%-40% 35 1.90 1.72
    39%-00% 25 1.75 1.33

    Incidentally, the top ten stallions of horses who improve for switching codes are;-

    79 Pour Moi (0.43)
    78 Authorized (0.62)
    67 Montjeu (0.89)
    65 Fast Company (2.06)
    64 Sinndar (1.56)
    64 Aussie Rules (1.73)
    62 Casamento (1.77)
    61 Sixties Icon (0.65)
    60 Canford Cliffs (0.82)
    59 Holy Roman Emperor (2.48)

    Putting stallions in bands of their DIs and evalusting their strike rates for both winners/runners and plus 108 performers produces highly consistent results;-

    Winners from runners
    ________ Total Mean % Median %
    0.00-0.95 34 27.66 26.54
    1.04-1.48 36 23.53 21.68
    1.53-2.00 30 20.56 20.71
    2.06-2.79 25 18.10 16.67
    3.00-5.00 20 17.13 16.67

    108+
    ________ Total Mean % Median %
    0.00-0.95 34 32.24 30.95
    1.04-1.48 36 26.22 22.22
    1.53-2.00 30 23.45 22.22
    2.06-2.79 25 18.60 17.65
    3.00-5.00 20 16.88 16.67

    However, these figures are not quite so well replicated when accounting for the transition from flat to jumps;-

    ________ Total Mean % Median %
    0.00-0.95 18 46.48 49.33
    1.04-1.48 24 41.16 41.42
    1.53-2.00 17 45.48 47.06
    2.06-2.79 11 46.54 47.37
    3.00-5.00 13 38.40 40.00

    When grouping damsires by bands of strike rates, it appears that the impact of their influence diminishes quite considerably as while there is still a vague trend overall, it lacks the distinction that occurs in the above figures;-

    Damsire winners/runners%
    ________ Total Mean Median
    64%-30% 27 1.79 1.29
    29%-20% 43 2.07 1.95
    19%-10% 34 1.92 1.72
    09%-00% 8 1.89 1.62

    As with the sires, there are a couple of damsires weighing down the lower figures in the shapes of Presenting and Supreme Leader. However, while their removal (which leaves figures of 2.34 and 2.18) helps to mitigate against the inconsistencies of the winners/runners table, it acts only as scant ballast against the comparative chaos that is the plus 108 table;-

    ________ Total Mean Median
    64%-30% 35 1.94 1.50
    29%-20% 35 1.83 1.79
    19%-10% 33 2.14 1.67
    09%-00% 7 1.99 1.71
    This chaos explodes into pure anarchy when it comes to improvement figures;-

    ________ Total Mean Median
    65%-50% 20 2.19 2.06
    47%-40% 21 1.68 1.40
    39%-19% 21 1.86 1.56

    While one might be tempted to hypothesise on why these figures occur as they do, whether there is a tangible relationship to be extrapolated or if the figures are chaotic because the perameters are largely redundant, any theory at this stage might welll be pure speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Can you begin to eliminate certain sires and breeding lines within the data bands. What i mean by that is, are there sires that fit the dosage profiles in the higher bands but just don't sire winners of that class and above.
    With the data available, it is certainly possible to recognise sires who underperform despite having a favourable dosage index. While they won't be having any more juvenile hurdlers, Rip Van Winkle (0.69) and Marju (0.83) both had poor records in the field with neither having a double figure strike rate by any of the aforementioned metrics. Nevertheless, this is not to say that they could not sire jumpers, rather their more successful progeny tended to produce their best efforts at later stages. Marju's top jumpers had their most fruitful campaigns at the ages of 5-9 (Simenon), 7 (Aspirant Dancer), 7-8 (Bobs Pride) 7-10 (Almaydan and Oodachee). An underperforming sire who may have juveniles this season is Havana Gold (0.74) who currently has just one winner from eleven runners achieving an RPR of just 100 in the process (although he currently has an improvement rate of 33%). Conversely, despite its higer dosage indexes, the Danehill Dancer (2.09) line mentioned in the previous post boasts several stallions with above average figures including Jeremy (1.82), Mastercraftsman (1.82), Fast Company (2.06), Indesatchel (2.50) and Choisir (2.60). The fact that Kingston Hill could join the ranks this season with a DI of just 0.90 could make him a very interesting prospect.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    If you began to hate me for setting you off on the arduous task you've just undertaken, I've also had another thought that is kind of the reverse of what you're working on at the moment. Often juveniles are accused of 'not training on'. I'm wondering if there is a sweet spot within the bands for juveniles improving/declining beyond their juvenile season, and again is there other criteria that can then be used to filter out further, thus statistically eliminating some data groups on probability.
    Just as a Professor of the Middle Ages might balk at the idea of touching anything post-Reformation, I must stress that anything a four-year-old does after Punchestown would not be in my field of research. Nevertheless, because I found myself rather intrigued by the idea, I did some work relevant to your idea - possibly without fully grasping your intentions.

    Firstly, I used the leading juveniles with the highest and lowest dosages of the seasons between 2011/12 and 2016/17 - the latter season chosen to allow the form to mature. The table shows Name/DI/Sire/Sire's DI/Highest RPR/Season/Three highest RPRs achieved after the juvenile season and the distances at which they were achieved/Average distances of top performances/Difference between top juvenile RPR and subsequent RPR - A larger the figure may be demonstrative of "training on".



    I am not sure that the forum's format is conducive to presenting the table in this post but hopefully the link to the image will still be there. The sample size is probably too small but two ideas that can be taken from these figures are that horses with higher DIs seem to be better adept at training on and that while those with higher DIs tend to stick at the minimum trip, those with the lowest largely only step up a half mile in trip. Although it is worth noting that the two who fared best enjoyed success at three miles and beyond and it could well be that the placing of these horses played a greater role than genetics. It goes without saying that considerably more research would be necessary before drawing any firm conclusions. Nevertheless, I applied this format in a similar fashion to the Triumph Hurdle winners with the highest and lowest DIs in the RPR era. There are some horses whose best RPRs were equally attained over a range of distances. In these instances, I used an average figure whenever applicible.



    Here, in contrast to the previous table, those with the lower DIs enjoy far greater success after the triumph than their more speedily bred counterparts. However, of the stoutly bred winners, only Commanche Court, Paddy's Return and Tiger Roll would establish themselves as bona fide stayers and while the likes of Mysilv and Celestial Halo ran close to or at their bests over three miles, they were equally capable at two miles. Zarkandar, the most successful of the speedier sorts would also perform well over both two and three miles which may suggest that for many high quality horses, the difference between two and three miles can be much of a muchness.

    And finally, there were forty horses who posted RPRs of 150+ over jumps last season whose careers began in the juvenile division. (This will not include those who exclusively raced at three or four in France). The figures below are RPR/Distance RPR achieved/DI/Sire's DI/Age/Horse.

    155 24.0 1.00 1.10 08 Apple's Jade
    150 16.5 0.71 1.22 06 Ballywood
    156 20.0 0.85 0.90 08 Ben Dundee
    174 25.5 1.12 1.10 09 Bristol De Mai
    158 17.8 0.85 0.76 07 Call Me Lord
    178 24.0 1.22 0.93 08 Clan Des Obeaux
    156 16.5 0.90 1.78 05 Coeur Sublime
    159 15.8 2.20 1.29 06 Cornerstone Lad
    171 15.5 1.00 1.29 07 Defi Du Seuil
    163 17.0 1.00 1.22 08 Diego Du Charmil
    166 15.5 1.40 0.93 07 Dolos
    152 20.5 0.74 1.78 07 Ex Patriot
    165 16.0 1.00 0.93 05 Fakir D'oudairies
    165 26.0 0.86 0.94 08 Footpad
    167 20.5 1.67 1.00 08 Frodon
    153 15.5 0.71 0.71 05 Fusil Raffles
    155 15.5 0.71 1.00 06 Grand Sancy
    154 16.5 0.33 1.00 06 Gumball
    153 22.0 0.71 0.90 11 Mala Beach
    155 17.0 0.50 0.53 09 Marracudja
    150 22.5 2.08 2.16 07 Mengli Khan
    156 15.5 1.00 1.00 06 Monsieur Lecoq
    153 15.8 1.00 1.29 06 Nube Negra
    157 15.5 0.77 1.04 05 Pentland Hills
    150 16.5 2.00 1.48 05 Pic D'Orhy
    157 16.0 1.40 1.40 05 Quel Destin
    151 21.0 0.67 0.71 08 Romain De Senam
    161 16.5 0.40 0.58 05 Saldier
    150 20.0 1.07 1.77 08 San Benedeto
    168 16.5 1.40 1.67 08 Sceau Royal
    166 16.5 1.86 1.67 07 Sharjah
    157 16.2 1.67 4.00 07 Silver Streak
    154 20.5 2.56 1.48 07 Siruh Du Lac
    154 19.5 2.08 3.67 05 Song For Someone
    150 18.3 1.00 1.04 06 Stormy Ireland
    155 30.0 0.58 0.62 10 Tiger Roll
    159 20.3 0.88 1.11 09 Top Notch
    155 25.0 1.13 1.24 07 Tout Est Permis
    156 20.0 1.00 1.29 08 Voix Du Reve
    154 20.5 3.00 1.82 08 Who Dares Wins


    Top 40 ex-juveniles 2019/20 MEAN/MEDIAN
    ________Total Age RPR ____DI SDI Dist Age RPR DI SDI Dist

    _____ALL 40 7.03 157.95 1.18 1.31 19.0 7.0 156 1.00 1.11 17.40
    Distance
    15.5-17.8 21 6.24 158.57 1.09 1.28 16.2 6.0 157 1.00 1.22 16.20
    18.3-21.0 11 7.45 154.82 1.41 1.51 20.1 8.0 154 1.00 1.29 20.30
    22.0-30.0 08 8.50 160.63 1.09 1.12 24.9 8.0 155 1.06 1.02 24.50
    DI
    0.33-0.90 16 7.19 155.63 0.70 0.97 19.2 7.0 155 0.71 0.92 17.40
    1.00-1.29 12 7.17 160.50 1.05 1.18 19.7 7.5 156 1.00 1.16 19.15
    1.40-3.00 12 6.67 158.50 1.94 1.88 18.0 7.0 157 1.93 1.58 16.50

    While it is only a sample size of forty, there is really nothing to glean from these figures other than the fact that no current high-class graduate-juvenile has a dosage index exceeding 3.00

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    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    In turn BH I have to show a bit of gratitude to Maruco. Someone once told me, we only get the right answers when we start asking the right questions, and Maruco is certainly having a good crack at finding the right ones and most definitely articulating them better than I could myself.

    With regards top class horses finding the 2 mile and the 3 mile trips much of a muchness I'd have to say you may find that's only really applicable to hurdling. I'd have said that it was something to do with the fact that no-one sets out to train a staying hurdler and that it ends up being the weakest division at Championship level. As such The grade one staying hurdles don't usually ( there are exceptions ) get run at a true gallop or grade 1 pace. Hence you have years where the speedier/classier types who can settle tend to come to the fore. A horse getting a trip was explained to me as, all horses get a trip, a cart horse stays 4 miles he just does so in his own time. Stamina only comes into play really when a particular trip is run at pace. Its sometimes why you'd see those horses that have proven stamina over further do well in the Championship races at Cheltenham people tend to think its the hill, which fair enough it does play a huge part in it but its also the break neck pace races are run at rather than the jog and sprint type races we see throughout much of the winter.

    Once again a cracking thread and I always like to read something that reminds me how little I know.
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    I don’t have enough time this morning to give a worthy response. Before I do, and for now, I just want to say thanks BH. Col sums up your efforts with one word perfectly above. You are putting together a really impressive piece of work.

    I’ll be back with some more thoughts and questions, and probably as a consequence I’ll take up many more hours of your life!
    Last edited by Maruco; 25th July 2020 at 9:18 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    Epic.
    Nice one Colin. I am glad you appreciated it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    In turn BH I have to show a bit of gratitude to Maruco. Someone once told me, we only get the right answers when we start asking the right questions, and Maruco is certainly having a good crack at finding the right ones.
    Very true which is why any contribution to this thread is a net positive for all concerned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    With regards top class horses finding the 2 mile and the 3 mile trips much of a muchness I'd have to say you may find that's only really applicable to hurdling. I'd have said that it was something to do with the fact that no-one sets out to train a staying hurdler and that it ends up being the weakest division at Championship level. As such The grade one staying hurdles don't usually ( there are exceptions ) get run at a true gallop or grade 1 pace. Hence you have years where the speedier/classier types who can settle tend to come to the fore. A horse getting a trip was explained to me as, all horses get a trip, a cart horse stays 4 miles he just does so in his own time. Stamina only comes into play really when a particular trip is run at pace. Its sometimes why you'd see those horses that have proven stamina over further do well in the Championship races at Cheltenham people tend to think its the hill, which fair enough it does play a huge part in it but its also the break neck pace races are run at rather than the jog and sprint type races we see throughout much of the winter.
    Myself and Maruco had something of a very cordial clash conducted in the best of faith on this matter in a thread last year. A thread that could have been resurrected during Cheltenham when the mares' hurdle spoiled both the Champion and Stayers Hurdlers, the Ryanair Chase was won by - in the words of Bryony Frost - Champion Chasers, and the Champion Chase itself was won by anything but. I fear for derailing this particular thread as there is already a more appropriate one buried beneath a few pages but my general premise is that while there can be a difference between two and three miles, the half mile point in between is not a specialist distance as the best two or three milers will invariably beat any so called twenty furlong horse at the trip. I think you are correct that the schism between two and three miles may be less pronounced over hurdles but would maintain that there is little difference between either trip and twenty furlongs over fences. I would only want to pursue this train of thought in this thread if it relates to juvenile hurdling but am sure I will answer the call to war on the two and a half mile hill as eagerly as any of the prophet's mares.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Once again a cracking thread and I always like to read something that reminds me how little I know.
    I love that line "I like to keep abreast of my ignorance" from Arthur Miller's 'All My Sons' and try to be mindful of practising same where possible. Particularly if I feel my ego inflating beyond its capacity! But it is absolutely better to find out what you do not know than to settle with what you do and I am always appreciative of the kind words from a curious person such as yourself.[/QUOTE]

    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I don’t have enough time this morning to give a worthy response. Before I do, and for now, I just want to say thanks BH. Col sums up your efforts with one word perfectly above. You are putting together a really impressive piece of work.

    I’ll be back with some more thoughts and questions, and probably as a consequence I’ll take up many more hours of your life!
    This is payback for that twenty furlong's isn't a legitimate championship distance thread isn't it?

    In seriousness though, thanks for your thoughts on this thread and I look forward to seeing some more. Though I may have to breath some fresh air and/or talk to an actual, real life non-horsey person again at some point before getting stuck back into the research!

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    The fourth juvenile hurdle takes place at Market Rasen on Monday and it will be the first without Hiconic which will give some other horse a chance to win a rice. Her absence further compounds the notion that at first glance, this is a tricky race to evaluate in advance. While all of the newcomers' profiles have features which could make them interesting and/or competitive, they also have aspects which demand discretion and reticence. As such, unless there is a revelatory performance of sorts, the form of this race might warrant caution insofar as the future is concerned. The average winning DI from the past fifty-three Market Rasen juvenile hurdles is 1.00 median and 1.40 mean - 1.27 when outliers are removed. On these figures alone, this would make it a sterner test than Newton Abbot and somewhere between Bangor and Stratford with the mean figure bringing it closer to the former and the median the latter. Some very good juveniles have competed at Market Rasen in recent years before going on to bigger and brighter things such as Tiger Roll, Fox Norton, Cliffs Of Dover and Nube Negra - not to mention Triumph winners Countrywide Flame and Katchit. However, while this race probably wont be adding to that list, we can still enjoy a nice headache while attempting to contextualise the event.

    Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien (47) 34
    Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
    On the plus side, Billy The Quid has a nice low dosage index, his damsire has two winners from three juveniles (both as a sire and a damsire) and along with being out of a half sister to winning hurdler, shares a maternal line with relatives such as El Dancer (5/2), Captain Cee Bee (5/3), Esmondo (5/4) and Triumph winner Pentland Hills (6/4). Less positive elements are that sire Requinto is zero from four juveniles and while his trainer is in grand form at the moment, his record with juveniles (one winner from twelve and a 29% improvement rate) is less inspiring. However, the most damaging facet of Billy The Squid's profile is his flat form which saw him beaten seventy-three lengths in three runs for George Scott.

    Dorchester Dom chg N Twiston-Davies 6-0-0 (55) 69
    Starspangledbanner (Alhaarth){9-e}(2.00) 3/2 Mutakarrim 1st Sharp Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2002
    Dorchester Dom began his flat career as early as anybody with a creditable fourth in the Brocklesby Stakes last March for David Evans. Despite this flash of precocity, the fact he has never ran beyond seven furlongs and his being out of the classy sprinter Starspangledbanner, stamina is not a major concern with horse. Although Starspangledbanner has yet to sire a jumps winner and his progeny are best at shorter trips, he is still from the Danehill Dancer line which thrives in this sphere and Dorchester Dom's dam is from the family of top stayers Big Orange and Red Cadeaux as well as good juvenile sire Haafhd. Furthermore, Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with juveniles although only two of his recent five winners came from the flat and those of a similar flat standard to Dorchester Dom have failed even to collect prize money. Gelded after running in the Brocklesby, Dorchester Dom has shown nothing that matches his debut outing and the official rating of 55 would be the ceiling of his subsequent performances.

    Dragon Man bg M Young 3-0-0 (47) 45
    Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
    Max Young's training career began on Monday with Dragon Man finishing 118 lengths behind Hiconic at Stratford. While his jumping was fine over the first two obstacles, a mistake at the third seemed to affect his confidence thereafter. Nevertheless, even with the anticipated improvement from his debut hurdling effort, he would still have a long way to go before he would be of interest in this kind of field.

    Dutch Admiral chg D Bridgwater 4-0-1 (83) 80
    Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family, 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
    Dutch Admiral's fourth placed finish in a Dundalk listed race back in late February stands head and shoulders above any other piece of flat form in this field. With his starting price of 66/1 there is a compulsion to pick holes in the form and while King Of Athens, who was a short head behind, most likely underperformed, the subsequent efforts of third placed Orchid Gardens in decent handicaps can rate his form in the low eighties. The maiden where he was runner up last time out has not worked out quite as well but the way he ran to the line would indicate that he can meet the stamina demands of Monday's race. He has since left the yard of Cormac Farrell to join David Bridgwater whose record in juveniles with flat recruits is a fine three winners from seven runners. However, winning done by the yard in these events is typically done so with horses who already have good flat ratings and is not usually followed by improvement. Dutch Admiral will also be David Bridgwater's first runner from the yard since March and while he is more than capable of getting winners in the summer, yard form can only be taken on trust. An even greater concern is his sire's record in juvenile hurdles. Only one of his thirteen juveniles - in thirty-nine attempts - have tasted success in the sphere and that came in March 2013 when Nicky Henderson's Little Dutch Girl won an atrocious fillies' race at Taunton at odds of 1/7f. It is not as though Dutch Art's hurdlers wanted for flat form as twenty-five of those losing attempts were carried out by horses who had achieved flat RPRs or 70 or above. Jumping stock in Dutch Admirals immediate pedigree is non-existent and that Affirmed was also the damsire of the top-class Theatreworld (Sadler's Wells) offers a glimmer of light which is incapable of piercing through the gloom. It may well be that his flat form, sufficient stamina and good trainer can carry him over the line in this company but he would still be breaking the paternal mould in the process.

    Mick bg M Hammond 6-0-1 (59) 63
    Makfi (Pivotal){6-d}(1.40) 2/1 Sayar 1st Joe Mac Novice Hurdle (G3), Tipperary 2017
    Mick's form case essentially revolves around his third place finish at Doncaster in a 1m6½f handicap on his penultimate outing. Tracking the leaders throughout in a stop start affair, he found himself outpaced halfway up the straight but was able to rally again and plug on on for a 4¼ length third without ever looking like threatening the leader. His previous best was followed by a below par effort and this inconsistency repeated itself last time at Beverley over two miles where he finished tailed off after leading for the first three quarters of the race. He did have Soldier On Parade behind him at Doncaster but while he comes ahead at the weights by a slim fraction, that advantage will be eliminated by the aforementioned's hurdling experience. Notwithstanding, trainer Micky Hammond has a respectable record with his juvenile hurdlers boasting a 23% winners to runners strike rate with over a third of those trained on the flat at the yard winning in the sphere. However, the yard has uncharacteristically gone over three weeks without sending out a winner. There are plenty of good and successful hurdlers found on the damline (3/1 Senanjar, 3/2 Serabad, 2/1 Sendiym, 6/4 Sacundai, 6/2 Monksfield) and Pivotal mares are capable of producing winning juveniles. However, while not as daunting as Dutch Art's record, Makfi's winner to runner rate still stands at one from eleven despite being represented by decent flat sorts although his improvement rate of 38% between codes is still fair if below average. While Mick might be able to do alright in this discipline, he would have to be putting his best foot forward and there are too many holes in his profile to confidently expect a strong outing on his first attempt.

    Party Potential bg A King 7-0-0 (49) 56
    Congrats (Half Ours){8-f}(4.45) US Family - 8/8 Fredo 8/10 Indietir 8/5 Nijinsky
    As covered in an exercise of explaining the blooming obvious in the preview for Monday's race, Alan King is a force to be reckoned with in the division. However, not every Alan King horse is a surefire winner and as demonstrated at Stratford by his charge Kings Creek, while it is reasonably fair to expect that his horses can jump and go about their business, they still need to be fast enough to win. What is more, the yard's representative on Monday had a stronger profile than Party Potential by dint of stronger and more consistent form (official ratings of 62 and 49), a better attitude (Kings Creek was comparatively straightforward while Party Potential is averse to travelling or running in a straight line despite donning a range of headwear), and a more substantial pedigree. King Creeks pedigree was uninspiring but he still had a lower dosage index, his granddam's brother was a winning chaser, his damsire sired winning juveniles and his sire at least had runners over jumps. Lowly markers still unmet by Party Potential's pedigree. While any Alan King juvenile has to be afforded consideration, it is difficult to make a tangible case for this one outperforming the one comfortably beaten on Monday.

    Prince Percy bg G Moore 6-0-1 (61) 65
    Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 - NH Sire
    Prince Percy was initially set to compete in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, a race where he may well have gone off as favourite, but was declared a non runner after reportedly being found cast in his box which is never a fun experience for either horse or human. Hopefully he will have recovered from the experience as he is an interesting contender in Monday's race. Particularly as his yard is enjoying a much better spell of form than it was doing three weeks earlier. Prior to his missed engagement, Prince Percy had four runs this year - three during the winter and one more on the eleventh of June. He twice finished a length and three quarters behind the winner in ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield off marks in the low sixties and the race where he was beaten into fifth of seven has worked out very well for the grade. Trainer Gary Moore boasts a very healthy winner to runner rate of 38% from a good sized sample and is well adept at winning juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than Prince Percy. Sir Percy, also the sire of Presenting Percy, is above average in terms of his winner/runner ratio for juveniles, horses out of High Chaparral mares are no strangers to success over hurdles and Prince Percy's granddam is a half sister to Walk In The Park (sire of Min and Douvan). If there are to be misgivings about Prince Percy's credentials, they may well be found in his willingness to give best. He has been backed on all six of his starts to date, including into favouritism last time out, yet he remains without a win and concerns are further enhanced by observations of his races where he has been seen to hang. Nevertheless, while these factors may impact the case for his winning the race, he still habitually runs close enough to his level and if the casting experience has not left any profound psychological scars then he has every right to involve himself in this company.

    Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy (66) 68
    Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
    The best of those with hurdling experience, Soldier On Parade came out of his Bangor race with great credit after finding only Hiconic too good and finishing a long way clear of the remainder. He brought and consistent and fair form into that race and attracted market support before the off. Racing in the vanguard, his jumping was well above average for a juvenile while leaving enough room for achievable improvement for the experience. Any stamina concerns caused by his dosage index were allayed by his sire as well as his flat efforts and rendered negligible by his Bangor performance. While he wore headgear on the flat, it was taken off for his hurdling debut and after showing little to no ill effect for its removal, he once again runs without any aids. Trainer Amy Murphy is still to send out a winning juvenile but she is still in good form and must have a strong chance of breaking that duck should Soldier On Parade replicate his Bangor run. Particularly if he finds the improvement entitled to him after his first lesson.

    Current chf D Roberts 1-0-0 (-) 14
    Equiano (New Approach){8-c}(0.57) 2/1 First Buddy 122 5th Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
    A very distant relative of Brave Inca (12/10) but a closer one to Top Strategy (5/4), Current finished according to her 100/1 odds when finishing nearly forty lengths behind Soldier On Parade at Bangor. It would be generous to call that effort promising but in fairness to her, she did jump quite well and probably burned up a fair amount of energy arguing with her jockey on the way to the start and throughout the first portions of the race. There is no real case for considering her as a contender and she is still likelier to finish closer to last than first. Nevertheless, with question marks hanging over a few of these, there might be a faint whisper of each way value in a triple digit price.

    Strong prospects
    1. Soldier On Parade
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Prince Percy
    3. Dutch Admiral
    4. Mick
    Feasible prospects
    5. Current
    Moderate prospects
    6. Dorchester Dom
    7. Party Potential
    Negligible prospects
    8. Dragon Man
    9. Billy The Squid

    tl;dr
    • Market Rasen provides a solid test and has been visited by several good juveniles over the years.
    • This race may not produce reliable form due to negative elements of profiles carried by most horses.
    • Soldier On Parade made a very satisfactory debut and may prove hard to beat if he improves on that effort.
    • Prince Percy has a solid profile and while he may not be a battler, he can give a good account if none the worse for being cast in his box.
    • Dutch Admiral has the best flat form and is with a good trainer but his sire's record is grim.
    • Mick has fair flat form at best but may struggle to confirm placings with Soldier On Parade and also lacks consistency.
    • Current was well beaten at Bangor but could outrun long odds.
    • Dorchester Dom stamina not a worry on paper but form has dropped massively after his debut in the 2019 Brocklesby.
    • Party Potential's trainer is always worthy of respect but this looks one of the yards less likely types.
    • Dragon Man seemed to lose interest after an early mistake but would still need to improve regardless.
    • Billy The Squid's damline offers encouragement but his own efforts do not.

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    Solid work, BH, identifying the winner and the exacta.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Solid work, BH, identifying the winner and the exacta.
    He also had Mick further up the list than he appeared in the betting, got the place part of a very nice 25/1 e/w. Thank you BH.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Solid work, BH, identifying the winner and the exacta.
    Third exacta on the bounce and gave the first winner strong prospects before it even got its 16/1 tissue. I could probably just copy the previews verbatim and use them as race reviews...

    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    He also had Mick further up the list than he appeared in the betting, got the place part of a very nice 25/1 e/w. Thank you BH.
    Ah, so I did

    Thanks a lot lads

    As always, I must stress that I am neither a tipster nor a punter and that the previews are just a way of contextualising the race in advance. Such a streak will not last and while it is admittedly quite satisfying to see the races broadly pan out as expected, there is more to learn when things do not go according to plan which is something else to look forward to in this thread. If anybody is using this thread as a guide for their punting (used in conjunction with their own opinions of course) then I hope it is found useful and wish them the best of luck. Nevertheless, I am not a tipster and my previews are not tips...

    While there is the temptation to use the preview for the review of today's race, there is more integrity in actually reviewing the race. This will be forthcoming but may have to wait a short while as I ended up tumbling down the dosages rabbit hole.

    So here is the condensed data for juvenile performances by dosage index in blocks according to the amount of races contested with the deviations from the averages at the end. Apologies for the presentation;-



    I will not belabour the point made in the previous post on the matter but these additional figures have broadly confirmed the rudimentary premise that low dosage index equals good. If anybody has any thoughts, observations or questions pertinent to the above figures then please feel compelled to share them.

    Going back to the family numbers, they did seem rather vague and indecisive on their own when the statistics were first assembled. Nevertheless, unperturbed and now armed with the dosage information that concerns itself with the upper part of the pedigree charts, I decided to see if applying DI to the family numbers would reveal anything of interest. Could it be possible that some families are crying out for some solid or even professional genes in order to reach their juvenile hurdling potential? As a DI of 1.00 or lower seems was a statistically positive figure, I took those with according DI figures who had three or more runs and isolated the family numbers before comparing the winners:runners and 108+ ratios to the general figure. After doing this, three family numbers saw performance increases of over a third;-

    {4-i} (Goshen, Footpad, Sir Psycho / Rock On Ruby, Kemboy, Maid Of Money / Azamour, Falbrav, Quest For Fame)
    {19} (Pentland Hills, Allmankind, Kentucky Hyden / Gay Trip, Pats Jester, Miss Nero / Oasis Dream, Kingman, Kooyonga)
    {21-a} (Adriana Des Mottes, Mister Chow, Kapga De Cerisy / Mill House, Cue Card, Anzum / Sakhee, Doyoun, Sweetmeat)

    These three families are shown in these tables with their progeny banded by dosage index.



    Small sample sizes notwithstanding, insofar as these three families are concerned, the possession of a low dosage index appears to make a very marked impact on the progeny's ability to perform over juvenile hurdles. Although it would probably do to consider that these may be exceptional cases and that a magic formula has not been happened upon.

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    BH. What stated your love affair with juvenile hurdlers.

    I'll be honest and say they interest me like a bumper horse does. Can I spot a future chaser and to that extent I prefer bumper horses.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    I'd missed the the last few posts, just catching up now but cracking stuff BH.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    The fourth juvenile hurdle of the season took place yesterday at Market Rasen and the first sans Hiconic. In the end, it went to her Bangor victim who won the race very nicely. While by pure dint of flat form and connections the field seemed fairly strong beforehand, there were enough holes in the profiles to be sceptical about the overall quality of the field and this is emphasised by the sloppy jumping by many of the runners. Nevertheless it was still ran at a fair gallop and the two with the sturdiest biographies came to the fore which makes the form more reliable. Soldier On Parade was second favourite to Dutch Admiral in one tissue and the early exchanges saw the winner offered at 7/4 but his starting price was a much better reflection of his chances. Party Potential and Dutch Admiral's opening shows were understandable from their basic profiles and their drifts sensible. Quite why Billy The Squid started the day in single digits was peculiar and may have hinged on the stable's decent form but his price also went in the correct direction. Dorchester Dom drifted like a barge but his attitude cleared up that mystery. The going was good.

    Soldier On Parade did not win head on chest but it was a very comfortable success and was never asked to do more than stretch out. Leading from the start, he took a fairly keen hold early on and went left at the first two flights but apart from being guessy at the last was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. Similarly to Bangor, his pace around half a mile out had the rest of the field in trouble and without asked any serious questions was able to win quite cosily in the end. While he looked like a very nice horse, given the improvement anticipated from his Bangor effort, he was entitled to win this race as he did. There probably should not be too much read into the distance he put between himself and those behind as they all gave incorrect answers to the questions posed of them going into the race. Nevertheless, it was still a good performance for what it was and a rating in the mid 110s would be fair. Whether that is good enough to defy a penalty will depend on the competition.

    Prince Percy was representing a decent yard and pedigree for the discipline as well as a fair standard of form from the flat. He missed his intended jumps debut at Newton Abbot after reportedly being found cast in his box but showed no ill effects for that experience and made a pleasing introduction. Lit up a bit early on, he settled fairly quickly and apart from a couple of confused jumps at the end of the race, he went over his hurdles nicely. The standard of this performance would be broadly in keeping with the flat form shown by this consistent horse and he can certainly be competitive in this kind of race. If there is to be a note of caution, this was the seventh time in as many career starts that he was supported in the market without winning. Perhaps too much can be read into that but this capable and consistent animal still needs to prove that he can have his head in front at the finishing line.

    Mick finished ahead of the winner on the flat at Doncaster but the gap in hurdling experience accounted for many of the twenty-two lengths between the pair on this occasion. Slightly hampered at the first before being big and slow at several of his jumps, Mick was off the bridle and finding himself outpaced at the end of the back straight, but he did manage to rally into third place at the finish. This was a fair debut and he has given himself enough to work on but he would want to be a bit more confident in the future and his being inconsistent on the flat will also have to be taken into account for the time being.

    Party Potential was Alan King's second juvenile hurdler of the season after his first, Kings Creek, was beaten into fourth at Stratford last Tuesday. On paper, Party Potential did not look as strong as the aforementioned beforehand and while he jumped better than a few of these, the fluency, attitude and ultimately his form was a level below Kings Creek. He would either have to improve or find a very weak contest to be competitive in the near future.

    Dutch Admiral ran a shocker on the basis of flat form and trainer but according to his sire, he did as well as can be expected. He has a nice enough size but showed no natural fluency over his obstacles here. Perhaps with sufficient time, schooling and experience he can improve on this but on this evidence, he needs to return to the flat if he is going to make use of his patent ability.

    Current put up a career best here after travelling slightly better than at Bangor and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, she finished tired and lacks the stamina to be competitive over hurdles at this stage of her career.

    Billy The Squid was probably distracted when jumping wildly to the left at the first but there are no apparent excuses for his bunny hopping and other forms of non-hurdler hurdling. Was pushed along going past the stands and lost touch before leaving the back straight.

    Dragon Man improved on his Stratford outing and although he needed encouraging into most of his jumps, managed to get over them alright. He does not look a natural for this discipline.

    Dorchester Dom opened at a price of 8/1 in the morning, representing the strong Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. There were misgivings to be had over the quality of his form since his debut in last year's Brocklesby but his drifting out to 66/1 was conspicuous. In the event, he barely consented to jump off and the quality of his hurdling was poor before he was pulled up with two left to jump.

    tl:dr

    • The front two give the form strength but beyond that pair, the form is not entirely reliable.
    • Soldier On Parade did not have to improve much to win as he did but it was still a nice performance.
    • Prince Percy made a good start and while he has ability, he still needs to prove he can win.
    • Mick made a fair debut but would still need to improve and is inconsistent
    • Party Potential would be one of Alan King's lesser lights
    • Dutch Admiral should be running on the flat for now at least
    • Current does not have the stamina for jumping
    • The rest showed no promise



    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    BH. What stated your love affair with juvenile hurdlers.

    I'll be honest and say they interest me like a bumper horse does. Can I spot a future chaser and to that extent I prefer bumper horses.
    Erm, big question with long psychiatrist couch answer. Just as anybody's answer would be to the question "Why do you like watching big, stupid, but magnificent animals run around fields and jump over stuff?" - let alone why somebody becomes interested in a very specific niche...

    It stems from a childhood desire to want to know everything about everything and in turn, everything about every horse. Learning about every juvenile hurdler seemed like a tidy way to start the process but having the attention span of a child with ADD put paid to these projects quite regularly. But the seed was planted and the more I watched juveniles as a kind of throwback to my youth, the more I became drawn to them for other reasons. The main being that they start their hurdling careers with a tabula rosa of sorts and you get to watch these tableaus slowly manifest in real time which I always thought quite poetic. Of course the more I learned about them, the more I learned that they are not entirely blank sheets bereft of information but entities of faint, imperfect, incomplete and muddling evidence which needed a concerted exploration in order to envisage. This appeals to the historian in me who exists in a very tangible way but ended up dropping out of Durham due to the uncomfortable cynicism and sense of existential redundancy one can develop when reading humanities. Which also ties into the other reason I enjoy juveniles hurdlers being the fact that horses are beautiful. All of them. Without exception. Even the ones running around a field in the middle of nowhere on a mediocre midweek card for the sum of a few weeks' training fees. And while the question "Will this horse make a hurdler?" probably isn't as high-minded as "Will mankind ever put an end to genocide?", the research that goes into it is much more pleasant and the conclusion - whether correct or otherwise - is actually quite comforting by comparison. After all, as good as Mick Foley was as a wrestler, he will be the first to tell you that he is not actually god.

    Plus tracks like Cartmel and Hexham are truly lovely places.

    Do you think that if the juvenile hurdles in the UK and Ireland were more like the French versions which, like our bumpers I suppose, are predominantly a schooling ground for future, you would enjoy them more?

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I'd missed the the last few posts, just catching up now but cracking stuff BH.
    Nice one Danny!

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