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Thread: Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

  1. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by luckyme View Post
    Started raining over here 30 minutes ago and looks like it is down for the night, heavy going tomorrow at Leopardstown in my opinion. 20 minutes from track.
    Fully appreciated. If it properly gets into the ground then that won't do Charlie Bassett, Dark Voyager or Flying Scotsman any favours and don't think Loved Out will appreciate it either. Ilmig and French Aseel should definitely welcome the rain. Famous last words and all that... Not positive where I am with Coltor on the matter. I am happy with Free Eagle's influence and Coltor went through the soft well enough at Killarney, but I am not thrilled with Red Ransom's possible influence as a few of his (thinking mostly of Contraband) bounced off the ground. Still, Zaidpour was very good in the mud, though I suspect Kahyasi's influence helped no small amount. Would probably fall on the side of it being alright for Coltor while keeping within arm's reach of the fence!

    The Finale Hurdle is looking likelier than not to get washed off which will be a shame, but hopefully it can be rescheduled for Tolworth Hurdle day, as is tradition.

    Though a regular fixture at Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick/Castleford meeting, tomorrow's juvenile hurdle is generally no better than the average contest at the venue and has little bearing on the better races in the Spring. Albert's Back achieved the best seasonal RPR for a winner when beating Turning Gold and Cornerstone Lad in 2017, and there is a chance for one or two useful prospects to emerge from this assembly. Donald McCain's Irish recruit, Danger Money, will be the highest rated flat horse to race in Britain this season and French winner Hacker des Places is likely better than he appeared on his Wincanton showing. Wetherby's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.21 mean, put it in the bottom quarter of tracks in the UK and Ireland and those figures are 0.31 lower than that of the average runner. The clear round and completion rates are also lower than average and with the ground already soft with heavy showers forecast overnight, a stern stamina test looks likely.

    Hacker Des Places bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (132) 117 108
    Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hacker-des-places
    Paul Nicholls has won the Wensleydale three times from five attempts since 2008/09, and those have been the only instances of him sending a juvenile hurdler to Wetherby during that time period. While Mr Glass, who runs in the concluding bumper, will likely appreciate the company, Hacker des Places has his own business to attend in Yorkshire. Third behind Paros and Jeu de Paume on his debut at Dieppe in May, Hacker des Places won at the second time of asking at Dax the following month. While Jeu de Paume is firmly established as one of the better juveniles in France, Paros was disappointing on his UK debut at Sandown. Though the runner-up at Dax was a dual winner in minor company, the form of that race has not worked out particularly well. Hacker des Places had also been green on his first two starts in France, and his jumping, while occasionally swift, included several large leaps. He did not settle on his hurdling debut at Wincanton in October and his round was devoid of the swift jumping he had exercised in France prior to his being readily outpaced by his stablemate. Nevertheless, he was still upwards of seventeen lengths ahead of the remainder who have subsequently shown improved form. Though the yard's imported hurdlers have a very good 32.89% strike rate first time, their second time rate is even higher at 36.67% and of the five imported French Hurdlers who were beaten at odds-on first time, three subsequently won including Qualando and Saphir du Rheu. With the experience under his girth and the benefit of a break extended by a pair of withdrawals, Hacker des Places should be able to leave his Wincanton performance behind and will appreciate the return to testing ground.

    Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j4-1-1 (117) 113 115
    Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
    Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a £12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days at Catterick twelve days ago, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. The going was officially soft but the dry weather throughout the day likely made conditions less testing than anticipated and Kings Creek probably won't want much more give in the ground. Furthermore, third placed En Couleur re-opposes with a seven pound pull and while Kings Creek is an honest performer, this is a more difficult task.

    Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73
    Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
    Beginning his career in late August, Caldwell finished third on his first two outings in maidens at Bellewstown and Fairyhouse before finishing midfield at the Curragh on his final start for Dermot Weld. His head carriage has been quite appalling but there is little to qubble about regarding his form as he split subsequent hurdles winners Druid's Altar and Autumn Evening on his debut and finished ahead of Fairyhouse winner Peckham Springs on his second start. Furthermore, with those races coming over ten and twelve furlongs through soft and heavy ground, he should have no trouble handling tomorrow's conditions. Dermot Weld supplies a fair number of winning juveniles but his improvement and strike rates are below average and the very same can be said of Michael Scudamore as a trainer. Caldwell made the switch between the yards for the sum of 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and on breeding at least, he has every reason to do just as well in his new vocation. Dansili rarely gets high class juveniles but his winners to runners rate of 36.11% is very healthy and Caldwell is a full brother to a pair of winning hurdlers in Carntop and Quebec. All three of the yard's juveniles to visit Wetherby have been placed including Dinsdale who was runner-up in this contest in 2016. Caldwell has an appealing profile and a good showing would not come as a surprise, although enthusiasm is tempered by his being an entire with a conspicuous head carriage.

    Danger Money chg Donald McCain f7-1-0 (92) 92
    Nayef (Generous){16-b}(1.18) 0.5 Doyly Carte 2nd Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
    Andrew Oliver has been the source of numerous talented juveniles over the years including Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Lettre De Cachet. Danger Money fetched 42,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and his rating of 92 is the highest brought to the division in Britain this season. Making his racecourse debut in late June, he broke his duck at the third time of asking at Tipperary, hanging on ahead of useful novice hurdler Dewcup. Since then, Danger Money has been participating in valuable contests and was not disgraced in either the Vinnie Roe Stakes or Yeats Stakes. Following a six week break, he finished down the field in the Irish Cesarewitch and was well beaten in first time cheekpieces when last seen at Leopardstown. A half-brother to Doyly Carte, he is closely related to the decent hurdler Melodic Rendezvous (2/2) while Model Man (4/2) and Rasko (4/3) also appear on the damline. Sire Nayef does get winners in the sphere, but his overall record is a little below average. Donald McCain is one of the stronger trainers in the division and his first time out strike rate with flat recruits is a very respectable 17.1%. However, only one of his last twenty juveniles at Wetherby have been winners and while there are more ticks than crosses in the overall profile, there is a suspicion that Danger Money may have gone sour recently.

    El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57
    Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
    Since 2008/09, four of Brian Ellison's twenty-one juvenile hurdlers at Wetherby have been winners including Seamour who took this contest in 2014. The master of Spring Cottage Stables saddles two runners here, the first being flat maiden El Jefe. Rated 53 after seven runs on the level, he was twice able to reach the frame including when last seen when runner-up in a soft ground, ten-furlong Redcar handicap in early October. His first run since wind surgery, he made good headway to run into second during the straight but looked very suspect when asked to go after the leader. The first and second each won next time, but El Jefe would still be the lowest rated horse in this line up. Born To Sea has done well in the division thus far with a 26.09% winners to runners rate, and he is out of a full-sister to winning juvenile hurdler Mountain. However, El Jefe still has moderate form and a questionable attitude to overcome.

    En Couleur bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (60) 68 j2-0-1 (108) 104 108
    Archipenko (With Approval){16}(0.90) 2/1 Circus Maximus 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2001
    En Couleur showed some promise on his flat debut back in March but achieved little in two subsequent outings in October and started at 125/1 ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. Nevertheless he outran those odds to finish just over eleven lengths fourth to First Impression and jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth. Starting at a twenty-fifth of the price at Catterick and making headway early on from a rear position, he also jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth and led the pursuit of the winner up the straight. A slightly untidy jump at the last compromised his chances of finishing second but he was still a good seven lengths clear of the remainder. Michael Easterby has three wins from sixteen at the venue including Albert's Back who won this race in 2017. An unexposed horse who should get the trip in these conditions, he comes into this contest with reasonable prospects.

    Fahad bg Danny Brooke f5-0-1 (72) 78 j2-0-0 (-) 84 90
    Farhh (Nayef){1-k}(2.50) 3/3 Lisheen Castle 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Wetherby 2019
    Initially rated 77 on the flat for Roger Varian, Fahad had begun to show signs of decline before switching to his new yard for 14,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. His stable/hurdles debut came Catterick in late November where he jumped poorly in the rear before passing beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fifth. Returning to the same venue a month later, he jumped moderately better in the rear but would not make any such progress and was be beaten twice the margin.

    Flight Command brg Samuel Drinkwater f5-1-0 61 (67)
    War Command (Pivotal){9-c}(2.14) 3/1 Sir Pitt 5th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2011
    Set to be Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler after 231 National Hunt runners, Flight Command won his final start in Ireland for Michael O'Callaghan before changing hands at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale for 5,000 guineas. This victory came in a mile handicap at Gowran Park off 53 with the fifth and ninth winning next time out. Four of his former trainer's eight ex-inmates have been winners in the division including Veneer Of Charm, Act Of Valour and Alexei Vronsky, although these were all rated higher than Flight Command. War Command has had one winning juvenile from eight and the granddam is a sibling of Triumph fifth Sir Pitt and the useful jumper Farringdon. Flight Command would not be the worst recruit to the division, but may find greater success in more moderate company.

    Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66
    Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/herbiers
    After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning next time at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths where he had Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle entry Houx Gris back in third. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of €100,000. However, whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Incidentally, Mathieu Brasme's other import into the division was the €105,000 Sainte Doctor who was unplaced in four outings last season for Neil Mulholland and JP McManus. Sire Waldpark, the 2011 German Derby winner, has yet to have any juveniles winners either side of the channel from his first two crops, but there are numerous winning jumpers on the damline. Oliver Greenall gets his fair share of winners in the division and Gold Desert has done well for him this season. Furthermore, he has been in good form recently and enjoyed a winner on the first day of this meeting. However, his juveniles typically improve for the run and while Herbiers could still be anything, he does have to account for his Huntingdon showing.

    Sir Charles Punch bg Tim Easterby f12-0-2 (68) 79 j2-0-0 (-) 98 105
    Sir Percy (Archipenko){1-k}(0.33) 3/1 Cava Bien 126 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (104), Newbury 2006
    Sir Charles Punch had a deteriorating flat mark but this was less due to a loss of ability and more about his capacity to fulfil same as he had a habit of working himself up. He settled better on his hurdles debut in a solid looking race at Newcastle but he was impeded by hesitant jumping which once again prompted his demise at Catterick last time out. Reticence cost him ground at several hurdles and he was unable to make inroads in the straight. While he has not been completely disgraced thus far over hurdles, and his trainer has had two places from five in this contest, he needs to be more assured over his hurdles if is to be competitive.

    Spantik bg Roger Fell f15-2-1 (64) 76
    Canford Cliffs (Galileo){4-f}(0.74) 3/1 Wily Fox 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Warwick 2014
    Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. Canford Cliffs gets his fair share of winners in the division and his progeny have an improvement rate of 60% between codes while the third dam produced a pair of fair hurdlers. Roger Fell rarely runs horses over hurdles and while Spantik has reasonable form, his tendency to pull despite his experience would be a concern.

    Strong prospects
    1. Hacker Des Places
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Caldwell
    3. En Couleur
    4. Kings Creek
    Feasible prospects
    5. Herbiers
    6. Danger Money
    Moderate prospects
    7. Sir Charles Punch
    8. Flight Command
    9. El Jefe
    10. Spantik
    Negligible prospects
    11. Fahad

  2. #242
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    Almost, but not quite, in for the morning... the preview for yesterday's race at Leopardstown.

    Preview review
    The strong prospect finished first and his chances were a standalone ahead of the next four amongst whom were unexposed types with credible profiles. The newcomers were afforded plenty of respect but given that it was a falsely run affair, the finishing order was a bit of a mess.

    Race review
    A quality field was assembled for this contest which was very much in keeping with previous renewals. However, the pace was a very pedestrian one with the winning time upwards of nine seconds slower than the other three races held over the same distance on the card. Despite going very slowly in the opening stages, they were all settled well with only Druid's Altar taking a bit of a hold. Although all of the runners with experience are capable jumpers, the pace did not lend itself to any taking performances in this regard. Furthermore, the field crossed the line in a heap which most likely compromised the finishing order - especially in the case of Saint Sam. Overall, it was a rather unsatisfactory although Zanahiyr excelled despite unfavourable circumstances and the front four look distinctly superior to the remainder.

    Zanahiyr quickly established a reputation of a serious racehorse in his first two wins at Ballinrobe and Fairyhouse, and further enhanced his credentials here. He jumped as well as he could in the slow pace and his only errors, going quite big over the third and fifth, can not be held against him as they did not hinder his performance and would not be prevalent in a truly run affair. Tracking the leaders throughout, he briefly looked like getting outpaced turning for home. But after a clean jump at the last, needed only to be shaken up briefly to quickly establish a clear lead of over three lengths and ran out a most comfortable winner. He emerges from the contest with an enhanced reputation as although the bare form is not extraordinary, he added a turn of foot to his already considerable arsenal. Zanahiyr will need a properly run race against top class horses before his true abilities can be established, but at this juncture, he looks a class apart and will bring real intrigue wherever he next appears. 141

    Busselton won his sole start in France in a Prix Wild Monarch which is beginning to look like a reasonable edition. His jumping was not fantastic on his debut, particularly in the early stages, but he began to get the hang of things as the race progressed and ran out a clear winner. His round was the cleanest on show in this contest and another who raced prominently, he moved into the lead on the turn for home. He briefly repelled Zanahiyr while under a drive, but while he was readily left behind when his superior opponent moved up a gear, he still had the best part of two lengths in hand over the remainder. While he looks unlikely to turn the tables on the winner, Busselton made a most pleasing Irish debut after a seven month break and should be able to hold his own in the better races over the upcoming months. 131

    Ha d'Or was the only hurdling debutant in the contest with his sole previous start coming by way of a six length win in an AQPS bumper at the beginning of July. He was not helped by facing his first public hurdles in a steady manner and he got slightly close to a few early flights. Nevertheless, there was nothing that would provoke trepidation and his hurdling was much more fluent once the pace increased. Held up in the rear, he was still in last position turning into the straight but no more than a few lengths behind the leaders. He jumped into third at the last maintained that position to the line. There is more to be learned of him but this was a solid debut nevertheless and should find plenty of improvement for the experience. 129

    Saint Sam was a dual winner over hurdles in France and performed creditably behind Zanahiyr on his Irish debut at Fairyhouse. His jumping decent without being quite as good as last time with his getting close to a few hurdles. He will likely jump better when going a more solid tempo and although he flattened the penultimate flight, he merely flicked it with his lead hoof and did not lose any momentum. Another who raced in the rear, he was unlucky not to finish closer as he found himself boxed in entering the straight, was forced to be pulled out and wide, and ended up jumping the final flight in last position. Being more a staying type, it took him a while to regain his momentum before claiming fourth place in the final strides. Though this confirms Saint Sam's overall ability, it perhaps exposes a palpable need for a sterner test which may not be forthcoming during his initial campaign. 129

    Autumn Evening came into the contest undefeated over hurdles and emerged from his Cork success carrying any amount of potential. There was a certain rift in class that needed to be bridged, and this was reflected in the market along with the contest itself. His hurdling at Cork was decent save for minor errors and his only real mistake came at the final flight. It was the same case here as he was slightly untidy at the first, got in close to the second, skewed over the fourth and, saving his worst until the end, flattened the last which cost him several strides worth of momentum. This is a habit which needs to be ironed out, and it is apparent that he is perhaps a notch below top-class. Nevertheless, Autumn Evening would still be an above average sort and along with holding place prospects in the lesser pattern races, should be up to taking a winners' contest and may also end up with a workable handicap mark. 128

    Druid's Altar was a commanding winner on his hurdles debut in a gruelling contest at Punchestown, but went off too quickly for his own good next time at Fairyhouse. He led once again but did so under a very tight hold which saw him take a hold, albeit one that was mild in nature. He steadied slightly going into the third and fifth but jumped fine otherwise and though headed and dropped from the turn into the straight, he was more outpaced than tired. From a form perspective, this was a slight improvement on his Punchestown effort, but he is becoming rather exposed and until he perhaps goes over a longer trip, will struggle to be competitive in anything but ordinary company. 127

    Jeff Kidder was the outsider of the field having twice met defeat in quite ordinary company before winning a standard maiden at Fairyhouse early last month. He is a reasonable jumper of his hurdles and apart from getting tight into the fifth, put in another fair round. Keeping a midfield position, he was always close enough if good enough. However, he began to fade in the straight and while he was baulked at the last, it made no difference to the outcome. Jeff Kidder is a likeable type and by dint of his proximity to good horses, posted a career best here. However, "above average" would appear to be his ceiling. 125

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    There is a fillies' juvenile at Doncaster on Friday so that will be sorted before the reviews of today's races (which I am quite looking forward to doing). In the meantime, the following completes the Boxing Day action.

    Preview review
    Sometimes in life, a 100/1 Kyllachy filly, representing a trainer whose only previous juvenile was well beaten at Down Royal in November 2011, will win a sixteen runner maiden on Boxing Day. Given that horses are not supernatural entities and the races in which they compete exist within a tangible reality, it is possible for everything to be explained... in a fashion. Taking the most positive view of her profile, her official rating was the sixth highest in the field, the trainer had a 40/1 winner at the beginning of the month and damsire Muhtathir (who was missed in the preview) has a very good record in the discipline and Awkwafina has now made it four winning juvenile hurdlers from eight. These reasons alone would not give a horse strong prospects in a race of this nature, but the horse had apparently worked and schooled well and in the delicate ecosystem that is horse racing form, factors such as those can make a telling impact. Call Me Rocky exceed the expectations of the market along with his trainer who had the horse as his second string. Palm Beach went as low as 1.06 in-running so there would be no reason to be critical of his assessment, and the rest of the leading group, who were over thirty lengths clear of the remainder, all had reasonable prospects.

    Race review
    The most distinct feature of this race is that it went to a long priced outsider. However, if her prominence is completely ignored then even though the front five will have finished in a heap, they all had a right to be there and were a long way clear of a large field. While ran at a reasonable gallop, the winning time was considerably slower than most previous runnings. Although this was the case for every other race on the card and with the following day's meeting abandoned, it is fair to suggest that the ground was very testing. Given the number of runners, the standard of jumping was compromised by some crowding, particularly in the early stages. Nevertheless, there were no real hard luck stories and while the winner's position does come as a surprise, the form would look very feasible in her absence so her performance should not be readily discredited.

    Awkwafina failed win in six starts on the flat, her new trainer was nought from one in the division, and Kyllachy's record sixty-three runs without a win is unparalleled. In terms of positives, she was the seventh highest rated horse in the line-up, her trainer had a 40/1 winner earlier in the month and damsire had a fine winners to runners rate of 42.86% going into the race. It was also reported afterwards than Awkwafina had schooled and worked well and apart from skewing at the second, she put in a clean round on her hurdling debut. Setting off in the rear, she moved towards the midfield on entering the back stretch and made steady headway to turn for home among the leading group. She briefly led approaching the penultimate flight where she was outjumped, but regained the lead going over the last and was able to repel the challenge to win by a neck on the line. She clearly has the aptitude for the game and this performance happens to be the joint highest rated achieved by an Irish filly this season. Being that the next five all had solid chances and were a long way clear of the remainder, it would be unfair to dismiss this as a fluke and although it remains to be seen if she can repeat this showing, she may be a fair recruit to the division. 113

    Palm Beach won a reasonable maiden on the second of his flat starts and followed up with a good second to Crassus at this venue at the start of the month. His jumping was fairly novicey on that occasion but was better here apart from getting close to three out, and being slightly tired over the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, he appeared to make the winning move when jumping to the front at the penultimate flight. However, he was outjumped at the last and was never able to regain the initiative. This is the second time he has been outbattled in as many races, but does not appear to be one who shirks the duels. Crassus was a more experienced rival and the going, while heavy at the start of the month, was even more testing here and that ultimately made the difference. Palm Beach has the class and aptitude to win one of these things, and with very few miles on the clock, he may still be able to progress beyond this level. 120

    Call Me Rocky was the stable's second string behind Zoffanien on jockey bookings, and drifted from 25/1 to 40/1 in the market. His flat form, including a maiden win at Limerick and a second in a heavy ground handicap off 78 on his penultimate start, entitled him to a fair chance on his hurdling debut. However, it got off to a perilous start when he was badly baulked at the first hurdle. Nevertheless, he was able to settle into a rhythm and apart from getting close to the third, put in a solid round of jumping. Tucking behind the pursuers, he was always close enough to launch a challenge but was never able to land a telling blow and finished a length and a half behind the front pair. This was a respectable introduction and the standard of this performance is already in keeping with his flat form so he should continue to be competitive. 118

    Complete Fantasy already had the experience of five jumps races to his name and after taking a couple of runs to get the hang of things, has become an honest and consistent performer. One element to his consistency is that while he largely jumps well, he is prone to making the odd error. Despite being ridden into the flight, he was big and slow over the second, got in close to the fifth and steadied into the penultimate flight before tripping over it. Racing just behind the leaders, he was another who was close enough in the concluding stages, yet unable to find that extra gear. Complete Fantasy thoroughly deserves to win a race of his own, but he is typically liable to find one or two a little stronger than himself. 118

    Star Of Cashel is a rare juvenile hurdler for Fozzy Stack, but he was the highest rated flat horse coming into the race and had shown himself game in nature. He was a drifter in the market beforehand and he completely lacked fluency on his introduction to the sphere, After making a blunder at the first, he was big and slow over the second, steady and close at the third and especially the fourth, and was close again at the next two before stumbling over the last. It is a appreciable amount of class which allowed Star Of Cashel to finish as close as he did and should he become more fluent, then he might be quite useful. Particularly on a sharper circuit. 115

    Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at this venue behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second and while he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps. These errors were not serious and it is unlikely his confidence will be too aversely affected in the long run. Zoffanien was unable to match his debut performance but he was still a long way clear of the remainder and he should be able to bounce back from this showing. 114

    Willywampus jumped decently on his hurdling debut at this venue and had yet to be asked a question when falling at the fifth at Fairyhouse a fortnight ago. Settling in the rear, he took off a fair way from the first but got over it alright and while he tripped over the fifth, it did not cost him any momentum. He attempted to join the leading group but tripped again over the third last and was never going forward from there apart from passing a beaten horse on the run-in. He has not yet approached his flat form in three outings now and will need a soft mark if he is to be competitive any time soon. 83

    Master Rocco finished last in a claimer on his final start for Jane Chapple-Hyam and was completely unfancied her. Taking a keen hold early, he pulled himself to the front which is where he remained until the third last wherever he faded tamely. His jumping was poor over the first two flights but he settled into a rhythm and hurdled cleanly for the most part. Though he was beaten a long way, he was the best placed of the front runners and if he learns to settle better then he may be able to do himself justice in lesser company. 80

    Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early this month, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle. 44

    Stage Power beat only one home on his first two hurdles runs at Punchestown and Cork. Nonetheless, while he was beaten by eighty-five lengths here, was able to double his list of conquests despite jumping slowly and steadily on numerous occasions. 36

    Townes ran with a modicum of promise on his hurdling bow at Cork and racing prominently early on, jumped the first three flights quite well. However, he began tripping over his hurdles from the fourth onwards and lost his position even quicker than Master Rocco. 13

    Thekeyisnottopanic had not run over hurdles for nearly three months and after steadying at the second, got in very close to the third. Settled in midfield, he was still just about in contention with half a mile to go but soon lost touch and ultimately finished tired and tailed off. 1

    Self Assessed was the first to go into the lead, but his jumping did not merit such a position and he was the first of the leaders to be beaten before pulling up two out. Self Assessed has ran no kind of race since leaving Jim Bolger and would make no appear in the near future. 0

    The Copper Kid was beaten twenty-two lengths on his racecourse debut at Dundalk earlier in the month, and touched 400/1 in the ring to make a successful start to his hurdles career. However, he lacked fluency and never left the rear of the field before pulling up before two out. 0

    Tintean Fein is feasibly bred for the game and has a fair amount of size about him. However, he jumped way too big on his racecourse debut, was already getting reminders passing the stands and was the first horse to be pulled up. 0

    Dashing Diamond does not have the most appealing pedigree for the game but was well backed ahead of her hurdling debut at Tipperary back in October. In the event, she fell at the first and was then off the track for fifty-two days. Her return came in a twelve furlong handicap at Dundalk where she was only a neck away from defying odds of 33/1. She once again attracted support in the market, going from 18/1 in the ring to starting at 15/2. However, she almost went again at the first as she got in very close, and was hampered at the second. Her jumping was decent for a while and she managed to reach the leading group turning for home. However, that would be the sum of her achievements and after landing awkwardly after the last, was quickly pulled up and dismounted. Fortunately, she is none the worse for the excursions and while she would have been comfortably beaten, there was still some promise on this showing. 93

    High Moor Flyer 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (110)
    A daughter of A Media Luz, High Moor Flyer far surpassed anything she achieved on the flat when second on her hurdling debut at Leicester and though utterly outclassed in a Listed race at Aintree, she still finished fourth of eleven. Stepping up half a mile on her handicap debut, she had reasonable chances of getting the trip. However, her rating of 110 does not look kind and her habit of taking a keen hold further compromised her chances. Tracking the leader, she took her first three hurdles well enough, but blundered at the fourth and was close again to the next two. She was getting reminders early in the back straight and quickly lost her position on the turn for home before pulling up shortly after. Unless she learns to settle, she will continue to struggle to run to her inflated mark. 0

    I'm Easy 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (98)
    Despite being beaten by over thirty lengths on his first two hurdles outing, his handicap mark of 85 is not unduly harsh. However, he was almost a stone wrong at the weights here and although his jumping was reasonable for the first part of the race, it began to deteriorate as he tired along the back. He made some headway before turning in, but it was a short lived effort and he was completely tailed off when hampered and unseating two from home. 0

    Naizagai 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m Handicap Hurdle (115)
    Naizagai ran with credit when second on his handicap debut at Sandown earlier in the month and is not harshly treated on his current mark. Held up in the rear, he jumped neatly and settled nicely before moving through the field on the turn for home and joining the leader at the top of the straight. He made his first error of the race when getting in too close at three out and made an even worse error at the next. Nevertheless, he was cleaner at the last which he jumped upsides the leader and despite being hassled by the larger third placed horse on the run-in, plugged on gamely and went down by just three-quarters of a length on the line. The front three were all well fancied and finished upwards of eight lengths clear of the remainder. Running in a first time hood, this is as good a performance posted by Naizagai since winning on his hurdling debut at Cartmel under very different tactics and in very different conditions. Having now proven himself on softer ground, Naizagai can continue his progress and with luck, will not be unduly treated by the handicapper. 119

  5. #244
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    Sprinter Sacre made his chasing debut at Doncaster on the 9th of December 2011, and the previous race was the first Filles' Juvenile Hurdle to be held north of Fakenham. That contest, won by Dubawi Dancer, amounted to little form wise. Moved to the 29th of December, it has been much the same ever since although the 2019 introduction of the venue's Listed Fillies' race hosted the following month has seen the last two winners collect black type. Tomorrow's renewal looks customarily average, but there are a couple of runners with pretentions of being capable hurdlers. All but two of the nine runners will be making their hurdles debuts and newcomers have a strike rate in the race of 10.71% which is similar to those with experience at 11.76%. The clear round rate of 96.53% is fair and odds-on juveniles at the course win 76.19% of their races which is one of the highest rates in the country. However, Doncaster can be a tricky course for newcomers where the clear round rate drops to 93.33%. Though a flat, galloping track, Doncaster is not an especially taxing racecourse and its winning DIs of 1.20 mean and 1.40 median are on the higher side of standard as well as being close to that of the average runner. While the going is currently soft, Doncaster is a well-draining course and there is little rain forecast ahead of the race.

    Breadcrumbs bbf Jennie Candlish b2-0-0 72
    Dabirsim (Dr Fong){22-a}(1.67) 1/0 Sister Agnes 1st Novices' Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2008
    One of three ex-bumper horses in the line-up, Breadcrumbs twice finished around twenty lengths behind the winner in a pair of races in the Autumn. Three of the first four at Huntingdon finished runner-up next time, although Breadcrumbs was some thirteen lengths behind those. The form of his Market Rasen race has not worked out any better and Breadcrumbs was nearly seven lengths behind Hunter's Dawn. No juvenile by Dabirsim or supplied by Ivan Furtado has won a race in the division, and Jennie Candlish's record is fair at best. The dam was able to win a moderate handicap hurdle, and Christmas Hurdle winner Silver Streak appears at 3/3. However, the overall profile is patchy and bumper horses of Breadcrumbs' ability have a poor record first time.

    Call Me Sainte bf Nigel Hawke b1-0-0 36
    Saint Des Saints (Pistolet Bleu){1-l}(0.71) 1/1 Saint Call 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2014
    By Saint Des Saints and a full brother to the useful Saint Call, Call Me Sainte's dam won a 4yo hurdle, his granddam won the Prix Wild Monarch in 1989, and Robin Des Pres and Robin Des Champs appear at 3/2 on the damline. Nigel Hawke has saddled three winners in the sphere this season, but has yet to win with ex-bumper horses which is how Call Me Sainte made an inauspicious racecourse debut at Exeter over two months ago. She was not unfancied but weakened tamely and along with a subsequent wind operation, she also makes her hurdles debut in a first time hood. Though bred to be a useful tool in the sphere, she comes into the race with many questions to answer.

    Flippance bg Alan King 6-0-0 (42) 42
    Toronado (Fantastic Light){6-e}(1.00) 0.5 Secular Society 2nd Gran Corsa Siepi di Grosseto Hurdle, Grosseto 2016
    Alan King has had two winners and a third from his three runners in this race, but one ran over hurdles in France and the other pair were two stone superior to Flippance on the flat. Finishing in rear on all six outings since her debut in July, Flippance had her wind done before twice being beaten in Chelmsford handicaps off 50 and 48. Though a half-sister to a fair hurdler in Italy from the family of My Immortal and Great Pretender (both 3/2), Toronado has yet to have a winner from fifteen starts in the division. Difficult though it may be to rule out an Alan King trained juvenile, the lowest rated flat recruit he has been able to win with had a mark of 58.

    Gilbertina bf Nick Kent f2-0-0 (-) 15 j1-0-0 (-) 90 94
    Universal (Teofilo){11-g}(0.82) 0.5 Big Ego 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2018
    One of two runners with hurdling experience, Gilbertina's previous outing came when an eighteen length third in a filles' race at Leicester. Her starting price of 200/1 was an honest reflection of her flat form and there was no indication in her pedigree than improvement was imminent. Nevertheless, while she lacked fluency in the early stages, she jumped decently enough and though the front pair left her trailing, she maintained her position relative to the remainder of the field. The form has a fairly mixed look about it as while Megan ran well at Aintree and fifth placed Volkovka (who made a bad blunder at the last) won at Market Rasen, the pair that Gilbertina split have each been most disappointing. Trainer Nick Kent has had a couple of winners since Christmas and though Gilbertina needs to prove her Leicester effort was no fluke, she is still unexposed and can not be readily dismissed.

    Hunter's Dawn chf Amy Murphy f1-0-0 (-) 36 b3-0-0 82
    Hunter's Light (Manduro){11-a}(0.71) 2/1 Moonlight Sapphire 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2009
    The third ex-bumper horse in the field, Hunter's Dawn showed the best form in that sphere with a twelve length sixth on her debut at Market Rasen, and a near nine length fourth next time at Warwick. Neither of those races have been substantiated and her last two outings have been troubling. After running out when turning into the straight at this venue last month, she finished tailed off on the proper flat at Southwell eighteen days ago. Amy Murphy has done reasonably well in the division this term and though Hunter's Light has yet to produce a winner, Manduro is a useful damsire, the dam is a half-sister to a couple of fair sorts and top National Hunt stallion Old Vic appears at 3/1 on the damline. Nevertheless, the best of Hunter's Dawn leaves her with enough to find without justifying her latest two performances.

    Kimberley bf Oliver Greenall f6-0-1 (68) 74
    Oasis Dream (High Chaparral){8-d}(1.00) 0.5 Moon Of Baroda 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2019
    In a combined 157 starts, Oasis Dream has never produced, not has Oliver Greenall saddle, a juvenile hurdler that has fallen, unseated or refused. However, while the former has a solid record in the sphere, the same can not be said of the sire who has a strike rate of 2.9%, and an improvement rate of just 6.67%. Following a modest start to her racing career at Chelmsford in June, Kimberley ran creditably without winning on three outings during the summer, including a second at Windsor where she finished upwards of seven lengths clear ahead of the remainder. Following a 10,500 guineas transaction at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, she left a James Fanshawe yard with a fair record of supplying juvenile hurdlers to the sphere including the useful Trenchant. However, while she is a half-sister to the placed hurdler Moon Of Baroda, and not too distantly related to the top class Diakali at 3/2, her sirelines are less than enticing. Furthermore, her best form has been on good to firm and she disappointed on her final two starts on the flat.

    Licit bf Mohamed Moubarak f12-1-4 (68) 75
    Poet's Voice (Oasis Dream){22-b}(1.10) 2/1 Bivouac 1st Novices' Selling Hurdle, Kelso 2009
    Kentucky Hardboot has been an unexpectedly useful recruit to the division for Mohamed Moubarak, and in Licit he introduces another juvenile with a less than exemplary profile. A five and a half length winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit has ran respectably on four of her five subsequent outings. Poet's Voice has a fair record as a sire in the division although his progeny have a clear round rate of 93.1% which is the lowest in the field. The dam is a half-sister to the lesser but still fair namesake of Bivouac, and the niece of a winning maiden hurdler, but Oasis Dream's record as a damsire is no better than as a sire. Bryony Frost is an interesting booking, but Licit's profile is still a patchy one.

    Progressive bf Nicky Henderson f4-1-0 (77) 83
    Nathaniel (Lomitas){20-c}(0.63) 3/2 Ellazaria 3rd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2006
    Nicky Henderson is not averse to running juveniles at Doncaster, and outside of the Summit Hurdle, half of his six runners since 2009 have been winners. Former inmates of Roger Varian's win more than their fair share of races, although they are generally not high-class sorts and most fail to improve for the switch between codes. Following a 55,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in the Autumn, Progressive will be the first juvenile to bridge the two yards. Her career began with a four length sixth in a Newbury contest won by the dual listed placed Cosmic Princess, where the second, third and fourth were each subsequent winners. She was off the mark at the second attempt with a game success in a ten furlong novice stakes at Newcastle, although the race has produced no subsequent winners/ Progressive was not disgraced off a mark of 78 on her final two flat outings in fillies' handicaps at Yarmouth and Kempton, but again, neither of these races have produced winners. Nathaniel is establishing himself as a fine sire of juvenile hurdlers with above average figures across the board. His first time strike rate is also a very respectable 18.18%, although early indications show that his progeny jump and perform better after a run. Lomitas is a more than capable damsire and although there are no immediate jumpers on the damline, fair sorts do appear from the third dam onwards. With strong, if shaky, flat form, a respectable pedigree and top connections, Progressive is entitled to plenty of respect first time out.

    Ronde De Nuit bf Philip Hobbs f1-0-0 FrF ? j1-0-1 (-) 95 96
    Doctor Dino (April Night){8-c}(1.67) 0.5 Nuit De France 1st 4yo Chase, Tolouse 2018
    The juvenile hurdle at Exeter in November was won by Monmiral, who since ran away with the Summit Hurdle, and the runner-up Honneur d'Ajonc was in the process of running a big race when falling at Kempton. In fifth that day was Ronde de Nuit. having her first run since she was fourth at Angers on her sole flat outing in June.
    The form she showed in France was promising without being much better than reasonable, but as she was more inclined to weave away from the whip than run true to the line, she did well to finish as close as she did. By Doctor Dino and out of a winning four year old, her pedigree suggests she can do well in the sphere. While she was fresh in the early stages at Exeter, her jumping was reasonable and after running off the pace, was still in contention turning for home. Her freshness and lack of fitness saw her empty out quite quickly and being hampered at three out, albeit only slightly, effectively ended her race. She was not given a hard time on the run in and allowed to come home without urgency. In keeping with her trainer's record, there was enough to suggest that she can find plenty of improvement for stripping fitter.

    Strong prospects
    1. Ronde De Nuit
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Progressive
    Feasible prospects
    3. Gilbertina
    4. Licit
    5. Kimberley
    Moderate prospects
    6. Hunter's Dawn
    7. Call Me Sainte
    Negligible prospects
    8. Flippance
    9. Breadcrumbs

  6. #245
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    Good Ball 29/12/2020 2m½f Introductory Hurdle
    Good Ball bg Paul Nicholls f1-0-0 (-) j1-0-1 (-) 120
    Doctor Dino (Barathea){6-e}(0.68) 2/1 Great Pretender 1st Prix Achille-Foild (Listed), Auteuil 2004
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/good-ball
    Tomorrow's introductory hurdle at Newbury was only opened to three-year-olds last season and the sole juvenile representative, Dan Skelton's Catterick winner Scorched Earth, finished down the field. This year, Paul Nicholls fields Good Ball to fly the flag for the youngsters, who comes into the contest having finished second on his sole hurdles outing in the first division of Auteuil's Prix Emilius in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Good Ball went into the race having finished down the field at Clairefontaine in August, and started at odds of 15/1. Racing prominently throughout, he got over the second unscathed after being hampered in mid-air and apart from a couple of big jumps, put in a good round of jumping. He was headed on the approach to two out by Teahupoo (now with Gordon Elliott), but did little wrong in defeat and went down by just over a length. The pair were three lengths clear of Haut Les Coeurs who was a twelve length winner at Auteuil on his next outing. Though Good Ball will be Erwan Grall's first expat to run in the division, previous owners M. L. Bloodstock have supplied the Nicholls yard with plenty of good horses including Saphir Du Rheu, Irish Saint and Marracudja. Doctor Dino has produced Sceau Royal and Dino Mite to win in Britain and his winners to runners rate with three-year-olds in France is a very commendable 44.68%. Good Ball is a half-brother to two winners and is out of a half-sister to Great Pretender who won over hurdles before becoming a successful jumps stallion. Insofar as his prospects tomorrow are concerned, the soft ground should not be a problem and Paul Nicholls has a 33% strike rate when running juveniles against older horses. While not in a position to assess the credibility of the opposition, Good Ball looks like a very interesting recruit and a big run would come as no surprise. He is currently available at 40/1 for the Triumph Hurdle.

    A quick note on Asharann who runs in a handicap at Doncaster, his rating of 104 is harsh enough already and he won't be helped by being a further three pounds wrong the long handicap. He might benefit from the softer ground and if he learns to settle then the mark is somewhat feasible.

  7. #246
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Taunton's first juvenile hurdle of the season will be in its fourth year tomorrow and overall, it is not an especially strong event. Nevertheless, in last year's contest, the first, second and fourth went to the Fred Winter (the fourth finished second while the front two pulled up) and the third filled the same slot in the Victor Ludorum. This year's edition features two winners and some solid yards are represented, but it would still be a stretch to describe it as a good looking affair. A sharp and trappy venue, Taunton's winning DIs of 1.18 median, 1.38 mean, are higher than average and its figures are also tight in relation to the average runner. The clear round rate of 96.01% is very close to standard, although the rate of 91.43% with newcomers is in the bottom ten of British and Irish tracks. The going is currently heavy, soft in places, with moderate rain forecast in the interim.

    Can't Stop Now chg Chris Gordon f6-0-2 (73) 74 j3-1-1 (124) 114 106
    Starspangledbanner (Ivan Denisovich){1-n}(7.00) 2/1 Aviatorilor 3rd 3YO Hurdle, Argentan 2015
    Twice placed on the flat and earning a rating of 73 before for Clive Cox, Can't Stop Now joined his new yard for 7,000 guineas in July. While he ran freely on his hurdling debut at Kempton, his novicey jumping settled down as the race progressed and though he faded to finish fifteen lengths third, it was not an effort without promise. However, he deprived himself of the opportunity to supplement that effort next time at Ludlow when virtually refusing to race and pulling up shortly after the start. The rain softened conditions at Fakenham late last month appeared to play against his strengths, and though he led from the outset, his price nearly doubled in-running as he pulled hard for most of the contest. His jumping was also poor as along with almost falling at the sixth, he got in very close to the first and veered badly right at two out. He also wandered into most of his hurdles including the last where he left his hind legs in the flight. Despite all of this, he finished the race better than any of his rivals and was eight lengths clear at the line, giving Starspangledbanner his first jumps winner. Everything about the performance was so anomalous that it is difficult to take at face value. Even if the best of his flat form and his Kempton experience gave him a chance in this contest, he pulled so hard and jumped so poorly that it is difficult to imagine that his superiority over all of his opponents is to be trusted. Neither of the two runners to come out of the race have achieved much and Can't Stop Now's undoubted speed may be compromised by the heavy ground. Nevertheless, he is still a winner in a moderate looking race so he can not be ruled out entirely.

    Fighting Tiger bg Nick Williams Unraced
    Elvstroem (American Post){4-i}(1.00) 0.5 Flying Tiger 1st Fred Winter (134), Cheltenham 2017
    The unraced Fighting Tiger cost Nick Williams €40,000 as a yearling, and he is a half-brother to the yard's Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger. His dam is also a half-sister to Noble Request who won the Scottish Champion Hurdle, was second in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles, and also won two races as a juvenile. The pairing of the dam with Elvstroem is somewhat peculiar if the intention was to produce a jumps horse given that the sire generally produces speedy types and while Danehill is a reliable sire of sires, Elvstroem's dosage index is the highest of them all in this sphere. Nevertheless, his sole three-year0old hurdler in France has been placed three times and American Post has been successful as a damsire. The yard has had three winners and two runners-up at the venue from eight juveniles and its record with unraced newcomers is better than average. However, the fact Fighting Tiger has already had a wind operation would be a concern.

    Iron Heart bc David Pipe f8-2-3 (79) 81 j2-0-1 (-) 99 104
    Muhaarar (Dubawi){10-b}(1.13) 2/1 Red Riverman 2nd Free Handicap Hurdle (121), Chepstow 2012
    A dual flat winner, including on firm in a match at Salisbury on his final start for Andrew Balding, Iron Heart was weak in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wincanton in late October despite favourable conditions. His jumping was untidy and though he finished third, he also finished with a wound on his near fore some thirty lengths behind the winner. Following a break of fifty-two days, he jumped with caution at Newbury and was very hesitant and untidy at the first before steadying into the second. Though he was better over the next three, he skewed over the fifth and was close at the next two, stumbling on landing at the penultimate flight. As rotten luck would have it, he was found to have suffered an overreach on the same hoof he injured at Wincanton. That he stayed on up the run-in, albeit as a thirteen-length fifth, is a tribute to his courage and was vast improvement on his debut outing. He has yet to match his flat form and he may be even more reticent when facing hurdles once again. David Pipe gets winning juveniles at Taunton but they tend to come later in the season and his charges often improve with a handicap mark. He saddled Night Edition in last year's renewal of this contest but while he would finish second in the Fred Winter, he could only manage a one paced fourth in this weaker contest. Iron Heart has the ability to be competitive, but his jumping needs to become more assured, the ground is not certain to suit and the trainer may have an eye on other targets.

    Masterdream bg Tim Vaughan f4-0-0 (73) 70 j1-0-0 (-) 36 40
    Sea The Stars (Danehill Dancer){20}(1.40) 3/1 Vasco Marengo 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2009
    Between 2008 and 2013, Tim Vaughan's strike rate in the division never went below 16.67%. However, since October 2014, he has secured just one win from ninety-one attempts. Masterdream, a 56,000 guineas purchase at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, ran four times on the flat for John Oxx without winning, and did little to justify an official mark of 73. Unfancied ahead of his jumps debut in an introductory contest at Sandown, Masterdream lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles, and was the first horse beaten before finishing completely tailed off. He is probably better that that showing and is taking a step down in class here. Nevertheless, the yard is not in a purple patch of form and Masterdream still has questions to answer.

    Numberoneson bg Harry Whittington f5-1-1 (81) 78 j2-0-0 (-) 73 73
    Camelot (Gone West){4-j}(1.38) 3/4 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko (Handicap Hurdle), Auteuil 2018
    By Camelot, this fairly useful winner on the flat for Joseph O'Brien has the qualities to make a useful recruit and in Harry Whittington, joined a stable with a solid record in the sphere. However, despite being schooled by an eventer, he jumped very poorly on his two hurdles runs at Ludlow and Wetherby and was well beaten on each occasion. There is time for him to realise some of his potential, but his trainer's juveniles tend to hit the ground running and have an underwhelming record at Taunton.

    Presgrave bg Jimmy Frost f6-0-1 (68) 76
    Camelot (Indian Ridge){9-c}(0.84) 0.5 Humble Hero 3rd Novices' Championship Final (127), Sandown 2019
    Another Camelot gelding formerly with Joseph O'Brien, Presgrave failed to win in five flat outings and his best effort was a third at Dundalk in March where he finished half a length behind surprise Huntingdon winner Dutch Admiral. He was then well beaten at Naas, finished midfield in a Killarney handicap off 74 and was last seen beaten six lengths in a soft ground, ten furlong handicap at Cork when last seen in mid-August. Shortly afterwards, he fetched 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale to join a yard without any winning juveniles from five. Only two of the fourteen that have left Owning Hill to run in the division, the best of whom being Needs To Be Seen who won one from six and cost 70,000 guineas. Presgrave is bred to do fine over hurdles and should have little problem getting the trip. However, he was withdrawn from an engagement at Roscommon due to heavy ground and has been tried in all manner of headgear with little affect on his questionable attitude.

    Shutupshirley bg Robert Walford j2-0-0 (-) 91 95
    Saddler's Rock (Tragic Role){6-f}(0.78) 1/0 Ede'Iff 1st Handicap Chase (101), Ludlow 2005
    Robert Walford has had three winning juvenile hurdlers from just eight runners and while he has yet to send one to Taunton, he has a solid record overall at the Somerset venue. Shutupshirley, a stoutly bred half-brother to minor jumps winners, made his racecourse debut at Wincanton in late October and though jumping soundly, was profoundly outpaced throughout and only passed beaten horses in the straight. He managed to keep in touch with the field at Exeter next time, but was unable to maintain his position in the closing stages and was a one paced sixth. The ability to do well at a low grade is there and he should come into his own in time and over longer trips. However, while these waters are decidedly calmer, he is liable to find a few too quick once again.

    Siempre Rapido bg Nick Mitchell f4-0-0 (70) 67
    Outstrip (Cape Cross){9-c}(1.36) 2/1 Champagne Champ 1st Handicap Hurdle (124), Ffos Las 2019
    Tailed off at Newbury on his debut last October, Siempre Rapido was initially rated 72 on account of a five length sixth on his return to the venue in June, and another sixth place finish at Kempton the following month. That rating was plausible when his first outing was taken in isolation, but the Kempton performance was not as strong and though meeting trouble in running, he faded tamely off the mark when last seen at Sandown in mid June. Since then, he has been gelded and makes his hurdling debut after 167 days off the track. New trainer Nick Mitchell is without a winning juvenile in four and is without a winner of any description since June 2018.
    He is out of a half-sister to two winning jumpers, but Outstrip does not have the credentials of a successful sire in the division and Siempre Rapido carries stamina concerns with him into the race.

    Theocrat bc Nigel Hawke f4-0-0 (65) 64 j2-0-0 (-) 87 100
    Teofilo (New Approach){8-f}(0.52) 1/1 Novus Aditus 5th Juvenile Hurdle, Taunton 2019
    Novus Aditus finished fifth in this race last season and Theocrat will be bidding to surpass that performance tomorrow afternoon. Never making the track for Jim Bolger, or reaching the frame in four outings for his current trainer, he was last seen seven weeks ago when tailed off at Ludlow. Five weeks prior, he made a fair introduction to hurdling when a near four length fourth behind Orchestral Rain at the same venue. His jumping improved to a degree between outings, but he was badly let down by his tendency to take a keen hold. No headgear has been applied and he still retains his testicles so that keenness might still be prevalent tomorrow. Nigel Hawke has his fair share of winners in the sphere and he managed to score at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Nevertheless, his record with juveniles at the venue is just one from thirteen and Theocrat was tailed off on his sole outing on heavy ground.

    Wightman bg Mick Channon f12-1-4 (69) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 94 99
    Anjaal (El Gran Senor){16-h}(1.50) 2/1 Les Arcs 8th Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2004
    Wightman ran twelve times on the flat at distances up to an extended mile and recorded his sole victory five outings ago in a mile handicap at Salisbury off 67. Since then, he failed to reach the frame, including twice as a favourite, and his last effort in that sphere was an eighth of twelve at Wolverhampton a month ago. Anjaal has had only one juvenile hurdler but makes little appeal as a sire in the division and the damline's most notable jumper was Les Arcs who was famous for flopping at Cartmel before becoming a top class sprinter. He was sent off an unfancied 50/1 ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury a fortnight ago. Held up just behind midfield, his jumping was rarely catastrophic but it did leave plenty to be desired as he had a habit of landing steeply. He made slight headway passing the cross-fence but never moved into a challenging position and finished quite tired. It was not a disgraceful performance and while he is a doubtful stayer, he may be helped by this sharper circuit.

    Zellerate bg Mark Gillard b1-0-0 (-) 39 j2-0-1 (-) 81 69
    Gutaifan (Barathea){16-f}(1.50) 2/2 Mirzam 2nd Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Worcester 2018
    Tailed off in a bumper on his racecourse debut, Zellerate's hurdling debut at Exeter saw him make numerous mistakes in the rear before pulling up. He finished second next time at Fontwell where his jumping was slightly better without being free of errors. He was already getting reminders at the third and was tailed off and detached at the end of the back. However, he was able to pass his tired rivals to grab second on the line. The first time blinkers may have assisted his efforts, but he was still beaten by almost fifty lengths and it was a substandard performance by any general measure.

    Volkovka bf Fergal O'Brien f5-1-2 FrF (81.4) 59 j3-1-0 (106) 95 99
    Camelot (Anabaa){2-i}(0.71) 1/0 Drole de Dame 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Lyon Parilly 2011
    While her last start for Simone Brogi came in a claimer, after which she was bought for €22,500, Volkovka's equivalent rating in the low 80s looks reasonable and would be the highest in this contest. Being a daughter of Camelot and closely related to several winning jumpers in France , she had feasible prospects for the discipline. However, her chances at Fakenham were compromised early on with some very poor jumping and finished by her hanging right. She reappeared at Leicester the following month and managed to complete the course, but not without some novicey jumping and a pair of bad blunders at the sixth and the last which cost her a third placed finish. Her flat ability gave her a strong chance in a weak Market Rasen contest early this month and she was able to take advantage with her best round of jumping to date. She got in slightly close to the penultimate flight but this did not cost her any momentum. Held up for much of the contest, she made headway on the long turn for home and was not hard ridden to run out a rather comfortable winner after getting a clear run a furlong from home. The standard of this form is nothing special and the third was well beaten at Catterick next time. Nevertheless, she won the race a shade cosily and with further improvement a fair possibility, comes into this contest with strong prospects for a yard which has had two winners in the past three days.

    Impetuous bf Mark Gillard f7-0-0 (35) 43
    Mayson (Mt. Livermore){14-f}(3.00) 3/1 Julius Caesar 1st Novices Handicap Hurdle (G3,116), Sandown 2005
    Mark Gillard's second runner in the field, Impetuous ran seven times in Ireland for Edward O'Grady, with her best performance being a three and a half length third in a Sligo handicap off a mark of 45. That came over an extended five furlongs and there is no indication that she can get the trip. She also hung right when last seen in mid July.

    Strong prospects
    1. Volkovka
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Can't Stop Now
    Feasible prospects
    3. Fighting Tiger
    4. Iron Heart
    5. Wightman
    6. Presgrave
    Moderate prospects
    7. Theocrat
    8. Shutupshirley
    9. Masterdream
    10. Numberoneson
    11. Siempre Rapido
    Negligible prospects
    12. Zellerate
    13. Impetuous

  8. #247
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Lots of metta for all and probably some for myself as I am trying (and mostly succeeding) not to be vexed for missing Talking About You's race at Taunton today. As much as I enjoy making these contributions, one area which I definitely need to develop is structural time management. Granted, this is something which is inherently incompatible with ADD, it is the time of years for resolutions and all that jazz so this matter will receive some (in)attention. Anyways, this is the last preview for 2020 so it seems like a nice enough time to thank everybody for their input, support and simply just for reading. With this preview pushing the wordcount past 280,000, knowing that anybody would take the time to even skim that ocean of letters and numbers makes the task much less arduous. So to anybody reading this, I wish you a happy and healthy 2021

    Tomorrow's juvenile at Punchestown will be the sixth held at the venue this season, and the fourth restricted to maidens. The first saw the introduction of Duffle Coat, though while the other two have produced subsequent winners, neither is likely to impact the season's better races in the manner that this contest has done historically. Since 2008, its hurdling debutants have included Grade One winners Jumbo Rio, Petite Parisienne, Unaccompanied and Pittoni, along with the Triumph Hurdle placed Mourad and Gardens Of Babylon. This year's renewal could potentially be quite influential as while those with Irish hurdling form look rather mediocre overall, Gordon Elliott's French import could have a touch of class and Joseph O'Brien saddles his highest rated ex-Ballydoyle horse of the campaign. Punchestown's average winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.20 mean are the second lowest of all Irish courses with five or more races, with those figures being lower than those for the average runner. Its clear round rate of 95.63% is also lower than average and with the going forecast to be heavy, stoutness will be a considerable asset.

    Anno Maximo bg David Harry Kelly f6-0-1 (62) 64
    Maxios (Singspiel){7-f}(0.76) 2/2 Aachen 2nd Veterans' Chase Final (146), Sandown 2016
    Although he has the second lowest flat rating in this field, Anno Maximo's profile is not a hollow one. Placed on his penultimate start in a Bath handicap off 60, he left Michael Bell for 10,500 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. Those who leave Fitzroy House have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.14% including Allmankind, Ruacana and Grumeti, all of whom were successful in Grade Ones. Maxios has well above-average figures across the board including a winners to runners rate of 43.75%, and the damline includes useful veteran chaser Aachen (2/2), and Atlaal (3/1) who was a decent juvenile ahead of winning the Lanzarote Hurdle the following campaign. There are a couple of negatives in the profile however, as only one of the trainer's ten runners in the sphere has been a winner, and Anno Maximo showed a tendency to hang on the flat. Though his best form came on firm, he is bred to handle softer conditions.

    Away To Sea bg Joseph G Murphy f1-0-0 (-) 73
    Born To Sea (Danehill Dancer{11-d}(2.00) 0.5 Thomas Hobson 1st Handicap Hurdle (A,143), Fairyhouse 2017
    Despite getting worked up in the stalls ahead of his debut in August, Away To Sea ran creditably to finish fourth in a Tipperary maiden and is bred to make a hurdler. Born To Sea has already produced A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower while the dam is a half-sister to Torpichen who can count Thomas Hobson and Fearless among her progeny. Of the yard's eight juvenile hurdlers, only Swamp Fox was a winner, although his hurdling debut did come when third in the 2015 renewal of this contest.

    Coventry bc J Halley f2-0-0 (-) 60
    Galileo (Dalakhani){23}(0.44) 2/1 Moon Indigo 1st Novices' Chase, Wetherby 2011
    Moonstone went one place better than her dam when winning the Irish Oaks in 2008, and at stud, she has produced Ballysax Stakes winner Nelson, and Epsom Derby runner-up US Army Ranger. Coventry is a full-brother to the former, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens at two and three years old. The latter outing in June saw him finish ten lengths behind St Leger winner Galileo Chrome, but that was not enough for Aiden O'Brien to persevere with him, and he has since joined John Halley who usually ends up with the lesser Ballydoyle graduates. Galileo wins his fair share of juveniles but no more than that, and the same can be said of Dalakhani as a damsire in the division. The damline does include some useful jumpers with Moon Indigo at 2/1, Point Of Principle at 2/2, and Samurai Way at 3/1.

    Duck And Vanish bg Denis Gerard Hogan f5-0-2 (72) 77
    Lope De Vega (Shaamit){10}(1.67) 0.5 The Tiddly Tadpole 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Hereford 2012
    Broadly consistent in four outings this season for William Haggas, he was twice runner-up in twelve furlong maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. Ex-Haggas juveniles have a 31.82% winners to runners rate and a solid improvement rate of 48.39%. Fetching 13,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he joins a yard which gets winners in the sphere, but with a poor strike rate and an improvement rate of 28.57%. Duck And Vanish is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers and Lope De Vega gets winners, albeit with only a fair record overall. Not the worst newcomer to the sphere but Duck And Vanish is known to hang and has already undergone two wind operations.

    Freds Honour bg E D Delany Unraced
    Rock Of Gibraltar (Acclamation){16-c}(2.00) 3/1 Secret Spring 1st Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 1997
    More often than not, unraced debutants in the division will be National Hunt bred, or cast-offs from large operations. In the case of Freds Honour, he is a homebred by Rock Of Gibraltar whose half-brother was placed over a mile and whose dam was a modest maiden on the flat. Rock Of Gibraltar, sire of Gimli's Rock and Rocky Wednesday, gets his fair share of winners and Acclamation is an above average damsire in the sphere despite being only fair as a sire. Eamonn Delaney has had just five juveniles since 2008, but one of them, Scooping, did win at 50/1 on his first try over hurdles at Down Royal in November 2014.

    Kashi bg Karl Thornton f5-0-1 (63) 66
    Manduro (Rahy){19-b}(0.89) 3/1 Purple Moon 2nd Scottish Triumph Trial, Musselburgh 2007
    Karl Thornton has yet to have a winning juvenile hurdler from five horses running twelve races, although Duke Cass was twice placed in moderate company in 2016. He fields two runners here and while Kashi is the lower rated and less expensive of the pair, jockey Donagh Meyler has ridden considerably more horses for the Skerries trainer. Though a neck second on his racecourse debut at Kempton in June when starting 5/2 favourite, Kashi has been beaten by ten lengths or more on his other four outings and was last seen finishing a twelve length fourth in a two-mile Goodwood handicap off 65 in October. He was running in first-time cheekpieces, headgear is left off on this occasion, and has pulled and hung during his stint on the flat. Costing €22,000 as a yearling, he fetched 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls to leave an Andrew Balding yard which has supplied winning juveniles such as Flaxen Flare and Hollow Tree, but has an improvement rate of 25.86%. Manduro has a winners to runners rate of 36.36%, including Rashaan and Baradari, although the improvement rate is a below average 29.41% and Rahy is not a prolific damsire. Nevertheless, the damline is a respectable one as along the half-sister was placed six times over jumps in France, the third dam produced three winning hurdlers, and 1999 French Champion Hurdle winner Vaporetto appears at 4/1 while Video Rock, runner-up in the 1985 edition is one row back at 5/1.

    Loved Out bg Thomas Mullins f5-0-1 (62) 68 j2-0-1 (-) 105 103
    Requinto (Mister Baileys){10-b}(1.15) 3/1 Brightner 1st Novices' Hurdle, Taunton 1988
    Despite failing to win in five starts and bringing a moderate rating of 65 (now 62) to his hurdles debut over this course and distance last month, Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite. This was not without justification as the quality of the race was very poor by Punchestown standards and he might have won with a more assertive ride. His poor jumping had a larger bearing on his defeat it was not much better in a much stronger maiden at Leopardstown four days ago. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstables before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. His course and distance performance would be the strongest Irish hurdling form brought into the race and the strength in depth is not as pronounced as it was four days ago. Notwithstanding, while Our Legend won after a week's lay-off for the yard last year, he was the only one of five for the yard to finish placed after returning within a week along with being the only one starting at 9/1 or less.

    Persia bbc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-1 (96) 103
    Galileo (Giant's Causeway){1-x}(0.77) No jumps relatives
    Joseph O'Brien has used this race to introduce two ex-Ballydoyle horses in recent years, with A Year To Remember finishing third in 2016, and subsequent Triumph Hurdle third Gardens Of Babylon winning two years ago. Persia has a higher flat rating than either of those and is also his highest rated ex-Ballydoyle horse to run in the sphere this season. Twice a winner last season at Galway and Chelmsford, his best effort came when beaten half a length by Desgraves in the Group Three Eyrefield Stakes. His seasonal reappearance did not come until September when a three and a half length ninth in the Petingo Handicap off 100, and a midfield finish in another "Premier" handicap at Listowel later that month. Galileo wins his fair share of juvenile hurdles, but nothing more, and while his dam was third in her Irish Oaks, the damline is bereft of jumpers with only Brave Inca's sire Good Thyne being the only relative of note at 4/1. Stamina and ability to handle soft ground are not concerns, but while the yard has a fine first time out rate, they generally improve with experience.

    Pretorius chg Gavin Cromwell f2-0-0 DeF
    Durban Thunder (Saddex){1-e}(0.54) 2/1 Pahaska 2nd 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
    https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18272
    https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18435
    Gavin Cromwell generally has a solid record in the sphere with 25% of his juveniles winning, and 64.29% of them improving for hurdles. However, he has now gone almost a year without a winner in the sphere and none of his six runners in this contest have finished better than eighth. This year he saddles two, and the first string appears to be the ex-German Pretorius. Pretorius finished midfield in two outings during the summer. The first being a Hamburg maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner, and the second another maiden at Cologne ran over nine furlongs. The winner has since done little in listed company and the runner-up is the sole subsequent winner. Sascha Smrczek has been the source of two other juvenile hurdlers, with Charlie Mann's Capone winning two races in 2018/19. However, both of these were rated considerably higher than Pretorius who also pulled extremely hard on his latest start. Durban Thunder, winner of the 2011 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen, has yet to be tested as a sire of juveniles in Britain, Ireland or France, but the Monsun line does quite well in this regard. The dam is a full-sister to fair French three-year-old hurdler Pahaska, and a niece of 2004 Wensleydale fourth Prairie Sun.

    Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) 81
    Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/raamez
    Franηois Rohaut has been the source of six juvenile hurdlers since 2009, but none of them, including €220,000 purchase Military Bowl, were able to win during their opening campaigns. Raamez, a winner at Nantes last October, sold for roughly a tenth of that price at the Tattersalls Autumn sale but might have attracted more bids but for a dip in form that saw his valeur fall by four kilos. Sea The Stars has a very respectable history as a sire in the division but the damline is considerably less enticing and Nayef has only one winner from ten as a damsire. Gordon Elliott has won this contest five times since 2011 with an additional five reaching the first three. However, Raamez was an unused reserve four days ago and the yard has a much stronger candidate in Riviere d'Etel.

    Rich Belief bg Karl Thornton f12-1-5 (76) 87
    Make Believe (Dark Angel){5-h}(0.82) 2/1 Excellent Result 1st Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 2017
    The more expensive and higher rated of Karl Thornton's pair, Rich Belief left James Bethell with a rating of 76 following a 24,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in October. He twice finished first past the post as a two year old, but was disqualified for hanging left in a Haydock nursery off 78. Though he has failed to win in eight subsequent outings, he has not been disgraced and was last seen finishing a five length second at Catterick in a twelve furlong handicap off 78. None of the six former James Bethell horses won as juveniles and the new trainer's record recalls a similar tale. Winners Excellent Result (2/1) and Front Rank (3/1) appear on the damline and Make Believe's first crop of juveniles have been running with credit. Only Persia and Raamez bring higher flat ratings into the contest and the conditions should not present any major issues.

    Saeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65
    Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
    Saeer achieved only a modest third at Chester in four outings for Sir Michael Stoute and at 9,000 guineas, is one of the less expensive juveniles to leave that yard. King's Parade fetched the same amount before winning in 2010 but allowing for inflation, Saeer would be the cheapest such horse to score in the division should he deign to do so. Moreover, former residents of Freemason Lodge tend to achieve decent ratings as juveniles, although their overall winners to runners rate is 15.56% and only 25% will improve for the switch between codes. Australia has a respectable record in the division and the dam is a half-sister to winning novice hurdler Persian Warrior from the family of Restraint Of Trade (3/1) and Grumeti (4/3). Saeer may be a fair recruit with his sights lowered, but was another unused reserve at Leopardstown and will likely be happier in calmer waters.

    Sweet Will bg Gavin Cromwell f3-0-0 (66) 65 j3-0-0 (-) 84 87
    Dragon Pulse (One Cool Cat){3-d}(2.43) 2/1 Tapimix 8th Novices' Hurdle, Newton Abbott 2008
    Since making his racecourse debut at Killarney in July, Sweet Will has been beaten upwards of ten lengths in three flat maidens, and upwards of thirty-two lengths in three juvenile maidens. His jumping has been reasonable on his last two starts, but there has been little other reason to be enthusiastic about his prospects.

    Undercommunication chc Sean P Hennessy f5-0-0 (58) 56
    Anjaal (Galileo){1-b}(0.52) 2/1 Tobar Na Gaoise 3rd Lartigue Hurdle (C,115), Listowel 2012
    Undercommunication did little to warrant a rating of 64 in three outings for Fozzy Stack and has since finished down the field in a pair of handicaps for his new yard which will be saddling its first runner in the sphere tomorrow. Anjaal had his first winner in the division this afternoon with Wightman scoring at Taunton, and the dam, a half-sister to the fairly useful Tobar Na Goaise, has produced a winning hurdler.

    Wonwabbitwon bg Anthony Mullins f5-0-1 (73) 73
    Camacho (Langfuhr){20-c}(1.77) 0.5 English Pale 2nd 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2017
    Anthony Mullins has yet to saddle a winning juvenile from seven horses, but Wonwabbitwon is rated higher than all of them. Though winless from five outings, he bookended his flat stint with reasonable performances at Leopardstown and the Curragh. However, the form of the latter, when fourth in heavy ground, has not worked out well as of yet and Camacho's record in the division is no better than standard. The blinkers he wore did not prevent him from edging right and are left off here.

    Zanavi grg Denis Gerard Hogan f2-0-0 (-) 76
    Champs Elysees (Dalakhani){9-c}(0.78) 2/1 Zebzardee 4th Prix Emilius (Unraced), Auteuil 2019
    The second of the two Denis Gerard Hogan runners, Zanavi comes into the race less exposed and with stronger credentials. Though finishing down the field on his racecourse debut at Roscommon in July, he returned from a 100 day break to finish second of seventeen in a soft ground, twelve furlong maiden at the Curragh when last seen in October. He was caught in a box in the straight and still had eight horses ahead of him when angling out for a run a furlong from home. While the winner was not for catching, he stayed on powerfully to grab second in the shadow of the post. The form itself is nothing outstanding, and though Leylak and Caldwell have since come out to finish placed in the sphere, no rating higher than 80 could be justified. Nevertheless, the manner in which Zanavi quickened was likeable and he has a good size about him. Champs Elysees has a solid winners to runners rate of 25% and can get fairly useful sorts from average ones. A descendent of Petite Etoile puts Zanavi in the same family as the likes of Zaidpour, Zaynar and Zanahiyr, with Zarkali (4/1) and Zarkandar (4/2) being closer relatives. Former inmates of Dermot Weld have only a fair record and leaving him to join Denis Gerard Hogan for €34,000 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale, 'fair' would be a generous way of describing his new handler's exploits. Nevertheless, this month saw him introduce Zoffanien and Call Me Rocky, each of whom ran and jumped creditably on their hurdles debuts.

    Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j2-0-0 (-) 22 22
    Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 3/2 Hills Of Aran 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2009
    Lady Kapalua was tailed off on her racecourse debut in the season's curtain raiser back in August, and on her return at Limerick four months later, was badly hampered by the first flight faller. From there, her jumping was untidy and she was detached from an early stage before pulling up at three out.

    Riviere d'Etel Gordon Elliott f1-0-0 (-) j1-0-1 (-) 124
    Martaline (Indian River){8-c}(0.57) 1/1 Ria d'Etel 1st Prix Finot (Listed), Auteuil 2015
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/riviere-detel
    The Prix Finot, held in early September, is a newcomers race with Listed status split between sexes. The fillies, or pouliches, version is often impactful on both the juvenile hurdling divisions in Britain and Ireland, as well as on the breed. The first two in 2009 produced Irish Grand National hero Burrows Saint and Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris winner On The Go. Insofar as racing careers are concerned, five of the eight imported after the race won in the division including Anniversary winner L'Unique and Finale runner-up Pepite de Soleil, while Gorgeous Sixty ran second in a Grade Three without winning in Ireland. This year's renewal was won by the fancied debutant Obeone ahead of Gordon Elliott's latest recruit, and full-sister to the 2015 winner, Rivere d'Etel, with the pair finishing twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Leading from the outset, Riviere d'Etel showed no benefit from her flat experience at Clairefontaine as she pulled extremely hard. This waywardness was also apparent in her jumping as she veered badly left at the first, and dived right at the second. She was able to settle into something of a rhythm but still made little errors such as steadying into the third and seventh, going big over the fourth, wandering into the eighth and going slightly right over the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, she responded well to the challenge set by the winner and was passed only inside the final furlong before going down by a length and a half. The winner has not since been out and those who finished a long way behind have only smatterings of placed finishes to their names. Nevertheless, the winning time was over five seconds quicker than that set in the preceding listed handicap, and nearly twelve seconds faster than the four-year-old handicap which concluded the card. Seven of the thirteen juveniles formerly trained by Yannick Fouin have won in the division including the Style De Garde and Ptit Zig alongside the aforementioned Pepite de Soleil and Gorgeous Sixty. This season is set to mark the fourth time Martaline has been the leading sire of three-year-old hurdlers in France and his record in Britain and Ireland is also laudable. As well as being a full-sister to Ria d'Etel, who was later third in the Grabel Mares' Hurdle for Willie Mullins, Riviere d'Etel is also a half-sister to Kapcorse and their dam finished fifth in a Grade Three chase as a four-year-old. Gordon Elliott has won this race five times since 2011, including with Spring Hurdle runner-up Shadow Catcher, and Fred Winter hero Veneer Of Charm - each of who making their hurdling debuts. Incidentally, the only French hurdling import to contest this race since 2008 was another filly in 2013 winner Adriana des Mottes. Overall, Riviere d'Etel has a very strong profile and the only concern going into this race is the degree to which she has matured mentally since last seen, and how much of a detriment her greenness might have on her performance.

    Roma Delight bf T M Walsh f10-0-4 UsF 30 j2-0-0 (-) 79 77
    Paynter (Devil His Due){8}(2.20) 2/1 Arch Rebel 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2004
    Formerly trained in the United States by Jeremiah O'Dwyer, Roma Delight would have been a peculiar import but for her being closely related to Arch Rebel. However, following a poor Irish debut at Dundalk, she ran a most peculiar race on her jumps bow over this course and distance last month before jumping too exuberantly from the front and getting caught with five furlongs to run nineteen days ago.

    Strong prospects
    1. Riviere d'Etel
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Zanavi
    3. Persia
    Feasible prospects
    4. Raamez
    5. Kashi
    6. Rich Belief
    7. Away To Sea
    8. Anno Maximo
    Moderate prospects
    9. Loved Out
    10. Wonwabbitwon
    11. Saeer
    12. Duck And Vanish
    Negligible prospects
    13. Pretorius
    14. Coventry
    15. Sweet Will
    16. Roma Delight
    17. Freds Honour
    18. Undercommunication
    19. Lady Kapalua

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    Beef or Salmon (30th December 2020), Len Madeiros (1st January 2021)

  10. #248
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    bh, did the 3yo maiden on Sunday 12.05 Leopardstown come under your microscope? It was an outstanding performance by the winner who is now second favourite for the Triumph.

  11. #249
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Decided to get Musselburgh's one out of the way to free up a couple of hours tomorrow for talking to actual human beings. So yeah, metta for everybody and all that

    2021 kicks off with a Northern Lights qualifier at the very Musselburgh where the £35,000 final is due to be hosted in March. Typically half a stone stronger than the typical race at the venue, it also serves as a step towards the Scottish Triumph Trial with four horses reaching the frame in both races since 2014. Furthermore, Project Bluebook and Nietzsche, first and third in 2017, would go on to finish fourth and third respectively in that season's Fred Winter. Next year's renewal features three previous hurdling winners, alongside winning flat newcomers from the yards of Michael Scudamore, Keith Dalgleish and Donald McCain. A sharp and almost flat track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.10 median, 1.21 mean are just on the lower side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.24% is as close to average as is possible. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 68.75%, the median winning SP of 2/1`is the seventh lowest in Britain and the strike-rate of newcomers essentially matches that of experienced hurdlers. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. The going is currently good to soft, soft in places, and sleet showers are forecast for the interim period.

    Jorgie chg Jim Goldie f8-0-1 (51) 55 j2-1-0 (113) 99 102
    George Vancouver (Lahib){9}(1.67) 4/3 Megans Joy 1st Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2008
    Rated just 51 on the flat ahead of his hurdles debut at Perth, Jorgie ran out a decisive winner and would have won by further but for a lack of concentration costing him ground and momentum over the final two hurdles. However, it was a race which rather fell for him as his opponents were either poor or underperformed. He was subsequently offered at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale in October but only went to £2,000 and was retained by his owners. Since then, he posted a career best on the flat when second in a Southwell handicap off 48. A market drifter ahead of his hurdles return over course and distance twenty-five days ago, he was held up in midfield where a lack of confidence over the early jumps translated to an error at the fourth, which preceded a blunder at the next, which nearly saw him capitulate. He was slow over the remainder of his hurdles and was beaten by nearly fifty lengths in the end. Jorgie may be difficult to place for the foreseeable as his best form leaves him struggling under a penalty in ordinary company and his official mark of 113 looks absurdly harsh. Jim Goldie has three winners from twenty-three at Musselburgh, including Sir Chauvelin who won this race in 2016.

    Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j4-1-1 (117) 113 115
    Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
    Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a £12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days at Catterick twelve days ago, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. The going was officially soft but the dry weather throughout the day likely made conditions less testing than anticipated and Kings Creek was pulled out of an intended engagement earlier this week at Wetherby on account of heavy ground. He is an honest horse who should be suited by these conditions, and only Fiveandtwenty has shown superior hurdling form. Iain Jardine's record with juveniles at Musselburgh is slightly better than that elsewhere, and while he has not had many winners recently, his horses are generally running to form.

    Ajax Tavern bg Michael Scudamore f7-1-2 (78) 84
    Canford Cliffs (Desert Style){14-c}(1.29) 4/1 Soleil d'Hiver 1st Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (72), Hexham 2004
    Michael Scudamore probably enjoys his visits to Musselburgh as not only does he get to see the family, but he has also had three winners from nine at the venue. His latest raid includes Ajax Tavern who cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Since winning on his debut at Lingfield last new year's eve, he failed to score again for Richard Hannon in six subsequent starts. Nonetheless, he has still ran with credit on each occasion including when last seen finishing just over a length third in a mile handicap at Chelmsford off 78. However, the record of those formerly trained by Richard Hannon is just below par with a winners to runners rate of 16.28%, and an improvement rate of 38.71%. Furthermore, he never ran beyond a mile and all of his relatives on the distaff side are sprinters. Canford Cliffs does have good figures in the division and have produced decent juveniles including Cliffs Of Dover and Praeceps. However, his winning juveniles have an average DI of 0.89, compared to the 1.20 of his maidens.

    Feldspar bg Keith Dalgleish f7-1-0 (59) 64
    Champs Elysees (Sadler's Wells){9-e}(1.08) 2/2 Nearby 1st Elite Hurdle (L,145), Wincanton 2010
    From Keith Dalgleish's twenty-four juveniles he has sent to Musselburgh, five have been winners and another eight have finished in the first three. He will be double handed in this contest with the first of his representative being the ex-Amanda Perrett trained Feldspar. Costing 6,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he quickly recouped a good portion of his price tag by winning on his second outing for new connections in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap at the end of November. Though he finished midfield at Newcastle a few weeks ago, and his new mark of 59 is still one of the lowest in the field, there is reason in the pedigree to imagine that he can progress over hurdles. Champs Elysees has a solid winners to runners rate of 25% and can get fairly useful sorts from average ones. Sadler's Wells has a fine record as a damsire and there are several winning hurdlers on the damline including the fairly useful Badihar (3/1) and Elite Hurdle winner Nearby (2/2).

    Go Bob Go bg R Mike Smith f7-0-1 (60) 64
    Big Bad Bob (Motivator){21-a}(0.48) 0.5 B Cosmos 3rd 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle, Down Royal 2015
    One of three double handed trainers in this contest, R Mike Smith brings a pair of maiden flat recruits from his Ayrshire base. Go Bob Go is the more experienced of the two with seven runs to his name, and appears to be the first string on jockey bookings. Racing for Eve Johnson Houghton prior to a 10,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in the Autumn, he was either soundly beaten or utterly trounced in most of his races. Nevertheless, he did get with a neck of winning a good ground, mid September Lingfield handicap off 59 in first time cheekpieces. While he wandered around up the straight, he did not look like he was neglecting his duties and the form looks decent in hindsight as the winner won four of his next five outings, the third was Hiconic, and the fourth won her next two starts. He was not disgraced on his latest start at Kempton as he failed to see out the additional two furlongs from the front. The trainer has yet to have a winner from five in the division, but he did get a couple of placed horses at Catterick earlier in the week. Big Bad Bob wins less than his fair share in the division, and Motivator is not as strong a damsire as he is a sire. Notwithstanding, his half-brother finished placed in the division, his dam is a half-sister to multiple winner Park Lane, and the talented Crystal Spirit appears in the echoes of the damline at 5/3.

    Gypsy Traveller bg R Mike Smith f3-0-0 (58) 55
    Alhebayeb (Indesatchel{4-d}(11.00) 2/1 Ormskirk 2nd Handicap Hurdle (106), Cartmel 2018
    The second of the R Mike Smith pair, Gypsy Traveller has achieved little in three starts as a two-year-old for Kevin Frost, and his two racecourse visits this year each saw him to refuse to enter the stalls. The damline largely consists of speed horses, although the dam is a half-sister to winning hurdler Ormskirk and Alhebayeb has had two winning juveniles this season in Duffle Coat and Blue Slate.

    Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66
    Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/herbiers
    After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning next time at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths where he had Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle entry Houx Gris back in third. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of €100,000. However, whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Incidentally, Mathieu Brasme's other import into the division was the €105,000 Sainte Doctor who was unplaced in four outings last season for Neil Mulholland and JP McManus. Sire Waldpark, the 2011 German Derby winner, has yet to have any juveniles winners either side of the channel from his first two crops, but there are numerous winning jumpers on the damline. Oliver Greenall gets his fair share of winners in the division and Gold Desert has done well for him this season. However, his juveniles typically improve for the run and while Herbiers could still technically be anything, and he forewent his Wetherby engagement in search of better ground, he does have to account for his Huntingdon showing.

    Kiss My Face bg Brian Ellison b2-0-2 96 j1-0-0 (-) 98 94
    Nathaniel (Dansili){20-a}(0.83) 0.5 Major Snugfit 2nd Handicap Hurdle (79), Sedgefield 2020
    Kiss My Face had twice been placed in bumpers and and represents a good yard for the discipline, although Brian Ellison has had just one winning juvenile from twenty-seven at the venue. He was not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut at Catterick, but his jumping left a great deal to be desired. He made errors at most flights, including getting close on several occasions as well as pecking on landing. There were a couple of incidents where he was baulked and bumped, including on the approach to the penultimate flight. He also covered more ground than most as he switched from an inside position in the back to going widest of all turning for home. These factors will have impacted his performance but not to the extent that he might have finished significantly closer. For a horse so inexperienced, it would be fair to not judge him too harshly on this outing. Nevertheless, he still needs to build on this performance in terms of aptitude and maturity before he begins to reach his potential.

    Machios brg Keith Dalgleish f8-1-2 (72) 76 j1-0-1 (-) 93 93
    Maxios (Shamardal){3-j}(1.15) 2/1 Hallings Comet 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2013
    Prior to fetching 25,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Machios had an eight race career for Andrew Balding which included a win and two placings with his best form came on softer ground. He had a tendency to pull hard which was also the case in the early stages of his hurdles debut at this course twenty-five days ago where he was quietly fancied before the off. He was untidy at a few flights and not the quickest getting away, but his jumping had more reasonable moments than otherwise. Making headway into third five furlongs from home, he could not match the front two for speed. Nevertheless, he was able to stay on and increase his gap over the remainder. He was not disgraced on his introduction to the sphere and is likely to come on for the experience, although he would prefer sterner conditions and there is no reason why he might reverse placings with Fiveandtwenty.

    Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (82) 89 j2-0-2 (106) 97 105
    Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
    Red Missile's last flat run for William Haggas saw him earn an RPR of 89, which looks fully justified in retrospect. However, some greenness on his hurdling debut at Perth saw him nowhere near to that level, even if it was not a bad outing in isolation. With the cheekpieces reapplied from his Lingfield win, Red Missile jumped much better from the front when last seen at this course in early November, and kept his lead up to the penultimate flight where he made his first slight error of the race. He was also low going through a couple of panels at the last but was a beaten horse by that stage. This was an improvement on his Perth outing and he is capable of being competitive at this level. However, his best flat form is looking like an anomaly and he did sweat up before racing quite keen last time so he does have questions to answer. Lucinda Russell saddled Thorpe to finish second in this race in 2014, but has just one winning juvenile from twenty-five at the venue and while his handicap mark of 106 looks fair, connections have opted to keep him in open company,

    Willy Nilly bg Donald McCain f7-2-0 (67) 71
    Morpheus (Danehill Dancer){11-d}(1.40) 3/2 Torpichen 1st Fishery Lane Hurdle (Listed), Naas 2009
    The first of Donald McCain's two runners in the race, Willy Nilly scored twice during the summer for Clive Cox, including when landing 1/16 odds in a match at Salisbury back in August. Only 13.04% of Clive Cox's former inmates win in the division and all of Willy Nilly's good form came on firm ground on undulating circuits. He joined Donald McCain for 14,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and while the likes of Torpichen (3/2) and Thomas Hobson (3/3) appear on the damline, Morpheus has yet to sire a winning juvenile from six. Donald McCain has five winners, five seconds, and a third from nineteen juveniles at the venue since 2010, but he has a much stronger candidate in Fiveandtwenty.

    Fiveandtwenty brf Donald McCain f10-3-1 (78) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 120 119
    Farhh (Woodborough){14-c}(2.43) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices' Hurdle 2010
    Fiveandtwenty had ten starts on the flat for Mark Johnston, including three handicap wins which came in the space of four races between July and September. The sequence began with wins over twelve furlongs at Ripon and Catterick on good and heavy ground, and was rounded off with a fourteen furlong success at Musselburgh on good to firm off a mark of 75. She was last seen on the flat finishing weakly at Bath and Nottingham before joining Donald McCain. The three horses who previously made the journey between the yards failed to score in the division. Nevertheless, this season has seen the beginning Middleham Park Racing utilising the services of the master of Bankhouse and it has paid off handsomely thus far with Genever Dragon and Fiveandtwenty making winning starts to their second careers. Though slightly keen early over this course and distance, she put her front running style to good effect and was very neat over her hurdles in the early stages. Her jumping began to unravel as she began to tire late on, but her initial fluency had her rivals in trouble a long way out and she came home unchallenged. It is worth bearing in mind that the jumping in behind was not of the highest standard and that she was a tired horse in the concluding phases. Nevertheless, it was a visually impressive debut, there was much to like about her attitude and aptitude, and the ground is unlikely to be any softer come Friday.

    Strong prospects
    1. Fiveandtwenty
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Kings Creek
    3. Red Missile
    4. Herbiers
    Feasible prospects
    5. Kiss My Face
    6. Go Bob Go
    7. Ajax Tavern
    8. Machios
    Moderate prospects
    9. Willy Nilly
    10. Feldspar
    Negligible prospects
    11. Gypsy Traveller

    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    bh, did the 3yo maiden on Sunday 12.05 Leopardstown come under your microscope? It was an outstanding performance by the winner who is now second favourite for the Triumph.
    Hey Barjon

    I liked the look of the winner beforehand and luckyme's weather report certainly solidified his chances in my eyes. It was undoubtedly a performance which warrants attention and he will be of huge interest wherever he goes next. I will have a better idea once I do the full review (which should be out by the week's end) but my initial inclination is not to get too carried away. He beat the right horses by the right distances but the second was making his hurdles debut, the third can be inconsistent, the fourth was a racecourse debutant and the rest did not go on the ground. Strictly on form, the performance matches Duffle Coat (which is still saying an awful lot), but would not yet surpass Monmiral, Youmdor or Zanahiyr. Furthermore, I was not in love with his jumping as he had a habit of either getting too close or jumping too big. I do not want to be overly harsh on him as he is certainly an exciting prospect who could well go to the very top. Furthermore, there is still plenty of time for him to improve his hurdling as well as prove himself against more established sorts. Nevertheless, it was one performance on testing ground in a race with fewer hurdles against inexperienced sorts.

    Notwithstanding, the second half of the season is shaping up to be a very exciting and enjoyable one for which we can all be grateful.

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    BH - it seems a very strong year for Irish trained juvi's

    Do you think they are above average?
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    From your last post you had the winner and a placed at 50/1. Excellent work

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    Tomorrow's juvenile has been a regular fixture on Sandown's Tolworth card, although its winners' seasonal RPR tends to be a few pounds lower than that of the average type at the course. This is not to say that it does not feature reasonable types as the contest has was won by 2015 Chatteris Fen winner Arabian Revolution, and 2017 Victor Ludorum winner Don Bersy. Nevertheless, nothing from this race has gone on to be competitive in pattern company. This year's edition would probably be of a similar standard as while the field contains winners from bumpers and hurdles in France along with some fair types from the flat with questionable hurdling experience. An undulating, galloping track, its winning DIs of 0.97 median and 1.22 mean indicate that it is a testing circuit at the best of times, and the heavy going will place further emphasis on stamina. The clear round rate of 97.37% is one of the fairest in the country, although it can be somewhat trickier for newcomers. Odds on favourites have only a 55% strike rate and the median winning starting price of 4/1 is only higher at Cheltenham for British courses with five or more races which should deter analysts from complacency.

    Hystery Bere bg Tom Symonds f3-0-0 (67.1) 56 j5-1-2 (134.2) 117
    Pedro The Great (Mystery Storm){5-i}(1.00) 0.5 Chabal'ozor PU 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2013
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hystery-bere
    Finishing down the field in three outings as a two-year-old, Hystery Bere was one of the outsides on his hurdling debut at Compiegne in a race won by Quilixios. Though he was towards the rear of the field, he was still in touch when giving his rider no chance of maintaining the partnership three from home. Following a respectable ten length fourth to Baladin de Mesc at Angers, he twice finished runner-up in conditions events. At Senonnes, he jumped untidily in what was a fairly moderate contest, but after a five week break, he handled a step up in class at Le Lion-d'Angers with merit. His jumping was as good as it had been to date, and while he found Blackiron six lengths too good, the winner beat Siroco Jo next time conceding seven kilos, and the remainder were upwards of nince lengths behind. Returning to the venue three weeks later, Hystery Bere finally got off the mark where, save for getting close to the fourth, he capped off another neat round of jumping to run out a decisive eight length winner. Third placed Harrisburg is a subsequent winner currently rated 136.4, but the rest of the field have done little to bolster the form. Four of Joλl Boisnard's five previous graduates into the sphere failed to win, but the one who did, Song For Someone, is developing into a very talented hurdler for Hystery Bere's connections. Tom Symonds has a solid record in this division, and he also saddled the fairly useful Don Bersy to win the 2017 renewal of this contest on his second start. Just one of his fifteen juveniles has won first time out, but Hystery Bere has been given positive mentions in public. Pedro The Great has not had any juvenile hurdlers outside of France, but Hystery Bere has already shown himself a proficient jumper. However, his latest three efforts all came on good ground which will be a world apart from what he is set to encounter at Sandown. While Pedro The Great won the Phoenix Stakes on soft, and his half-brother Footstepsinthesand won the Kilavullan Stakes on the same ground, his sire Henrythenavigator was much better on a sounder surface and it is a trait often passed onto their progeny by the aforementioned. Hystery Bere is a very intriguing recruit for an in-form trainer, but it is difficult to ignore the highly conspicuous ground concerns.

    Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j2-0-0 (-) 78 85
    Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
    Although Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven starts on the flat, and ended his first spell with a series of seconds, he ran to a fair level and could not be accused of being ungenuine. However, he was less convincing in his attitude and aptitude on his hurdling debut in the Summit Hurdle, and was decidedly capricious six days ago at Kempton when running out when passing the stands, and taking Warranty with him. Cloud Thunder's flat ability is not negligible, but he does not look a safe conveyance over hurdles and the yard has gone two months short of a decade since its last hurdles winner.

    Hudson de Grugy bg Gary Moore FrB 4-1-1 j1-0-1 (-) 112 113
    Falco (April Night){u}(3.44) 2/1 Rose de Grugy 2nd Grand Prix de la Ville de Nice (G3), Cagne-Sur-Mer 2013
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hudson-de-grugy
    Gary Moore habitually sends his best juvenile hurdlers to Sandown, and Hudson de Grugy made his UK debut in the same introductory hurdle used by the yard for Goshen and Sussex Ranger. Hudson de Grugy ran four times in French bumpers, finishing unplaced on his first two outings, snatching second behind subsequent Grade 3 winner Hallatienne at Les Sables d'Olonne, before making all for a facile win at Le Gacilly in July. Although the form of that win is much of a muchness, the runner-up on that occasion did win next time out. He since left Adrien Fouassier to join a Gary Moore yard that won this race in 2013 with Knight Of Pleasure. Hudson de Grugy's most notable relative is the yard's top chaser Sire de Grugy, who appears at 3/2 on the damline. However, that is not the only winner in the family as half-brother Django de Grugy won a chase, the dam has three winning siblings, the third dam won three cross country chases while champion of the late eighties Oteuil (5/1) and 1997 Prix Jean Stern winner French Kankan (5/2) appear further back. He more than doubled in price in the ring ahead of his course and distance debut, from an opening 15/2 to 16/1 at flagfall. Prominent from the outset, he was encouraged into his flights which appeared to be a necessity as an absence of instruction at the fifth saw him get it completely wrong. He was still in contention approaching the last, but a blunder at the final obstacle gave the winner an advantage that proved critical. Hudson de Grugy was still able to maintain his lead over the remaining rivals and he emerged from the contest with plenty of potential. While on balance, he has probably achieved less than Hystery Bere, his course and distance form on heavy ground, along with a fitness edge, should be to his advantage.

    Letter At Dawn bg Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 50
    Dawn Approach (Galileo){19-b}(0.68) 2/1 Roches Cross 1st Gran Corsa Siepi Nazionale Hurdle (G1), Pisa 2017
    Historic Heart and Peat Moss have both won this season for Nigel Hawke, having initially been under the care of Jim Bolger. Letter At Dawn is another such horse, although in the interim, he finished down the field in a Curragh maiden in early November for Brendan Duke. While a big horse who settled nicely in the rear, he never made any real impression on the race and was beaten by just under twenty lengths. Dawn Approach has yet to have any winners in the sphere from eight horses, but Galileo is a decent damsire and along with being out of a half-sister to a Grade One winning hurdler in Italy, is also related to useful jumpers Circus Star and Pole Star at 3/2. The trip and the ground should not be concerns, but more is needed in the way of proven ability and the yard's runners, whose first time out rate is just 4.55%, typically benefit from experience.

    Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 96 100
    Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
    On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and while his racing on a better strip of ground may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of £36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby in November and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. The way he jumped the first at Kempton six days ago was more encouraging, but that effort was cut short as he was carried out by Cloud Thunder on passing the stands. In the preview prior to that contest, I wrote that he might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. This is precisely what he will encounter at Sandown and on a track where the results can be muddling, Warranty might find himself being underestimated, even if the yard could be in better form.

    Strong prospects
    1. Warranty
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Hudson de Grugy
    3. Hystery Bere
    Moderate/Negligible prospects
    4. Letter At Dawn
    5. Cloud Thunder

    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    BH - it seems a very strong year for Irish trained juvi's

    Do you think they are above average?
    Happy new year granger,

    This seemed like a straightforward question at first, but in thinking of how to answer it, I encountered a set of diversions. In the most general sense, I think they are a strong and exciting crop. Following Riviere d'Etel's victory yesterday, we now have six Irish trained juveniles who have yet to taste defeat over hurdles outside of France - the other being Zanahiyr, Youmdor, Duffle Coat, French Aseel, and Quilixios - and all of them posting performances rated at least 130. By any measure, that makes for a very exciting state of affairs going into the next few months. This is not to mention those who have shown good form with the capacity to improve (Saint Sam, Ha d'Or and Busselton) or have not even raced in Ireland yet like Haut en Couleurs, who won in October and is now with Willie Mullins, and Teahupoo who beat Newbury winner Good Ball and is now with Gordon Elliott.

    Compared to the British contingent, which is not without unexposed and potentially useful sorts in Monmiral, Heross d'Ainay and Good Ball, Ireland appears to have greater strength in depth.

    Now compared to previous seasons, it is difficult to compare as there the current crop has yet to be significantly tested against older horses. Nevertheless, it might be helpful to contrast the compositions of those who emerged before new year's eve. Generally speaking, the most reliable indicators of success in the division are flat ability and hurdling experience in France. To this end, here are the statistics for the previous ten seasons. I added a column for percentage of 80+ rated flat horses against those who achieved a rating as this disrupted season will have led to fewer horses having the opportunity to earn an official rating.


    Compared to previous seasons, the current crop's median official rating is the joint highest with 2014/15 - which ironically, would eventually be spearheaded by the ex-French Peace And Co and Top Notch. There have been fewer French Hurdlers this season, but the one with the most, 2015/16 was the season of Apple's Jade, Jer's Girl and Ivanovich Gorbatov - the latter two coming off the flat. What might be more useful could be to look at previous Anglo-Irish classifications and see which crops filled the most positions in later seasons. But first, I should really post the preview for tomorrow's race before I forget

    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    From your last post you had the winner and a placed at 50/1. Excellent work
    Happy new year to you too Double J

    I though the winner ended up being plenty short at 1/4 but there can be only one in each race. Was surprised Herbiers was allowed to get that big as the market seemed to think that a first run in a new country completely invalidated his promising win in France. Such is the way of these things...

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    Forgot to review a couple of handicap performances from Boxing Day, so this with the proceeding batch of reviews should bring us up to the 27th I think.

    Bourbali 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (104)
    Bourbali's racecourse debut came at Plumpton in September where he was narrowly denied a winning start by Peat Moss. He shaped well enough next time at Chepstow, but following a six week break, he disappointed in what should have been more suitable conditions at Exeter where he jumped and travelled lead before fading late on. He pulled hard in the early stages, but was able to settle better before too long. However, his jumping was not as good as it can be as he made a blunder at the second, was untidy over the next, steadied slightly at the fourth, went through the top of the fifth, and steadied while failing to get high enough at two out. Leading or disputing for much of the contest, he was still in contention turning into the straight but lost touch shortly afterwards. From a form perspective, this essentially matches his Exeter performance, and while he was superior to Peat Moss here, Bourbali is not progressing as much as could have been expected from his earlier outings. He has since been dropped to 101 which might become a generous mark, possibly over a sterner test. 95

    Peat Moss 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (103)
    Peat Moss ran in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, and posted his best performance when winning at Plumpton in September. He was making his seventh start over hurdles, and fourth in the handicap company where he was not disgraced last time at Doncaster over half a mile further. He jumped fine on that occasion, and while there was a slight regression as he veered left at the first and took off long at the fourth, this was not a poor round of hurdling. However, from a racing perspective, this was his worst showing since August as he never left the rear of the field and finished the race a thirty-five length twelfth of fourteen finishers. He was dropped to a mark of 99 which could be a fair mark over further and on a sounder surface. 81

    LEOPARDSTOWN 27th December
    Preview review
    The front two were the correct two but in the wrong order, Ilmig's prospects were enhanced by the conditions, Dark Voyager, Flying Scotsman and Charlie Bassett were compromised by the rain, and Trezibond was given feasible prospects for a newcomer. The only concern regarding the preview is that French Aseel (who was a tissue 16/1) may have been given strong prospects were it not for withdrawals. On the one hand, a series of withdrawals might indicate a difficult in training and a diminished level of fitness. Conversely, it may also indicate that the trainer thinks a lot of the horse and would not allow it to compete until it was completely ready. A case repeated at Wetherby by Hacker Des Places. Otherwise, this was a satisfactory preview.

    Race review
    Previous renewals of this race have produced four Grade One juvenile wins, a further twelve Grade One places, and six wins in other graded contests since 2005. This year's edition lacked somewhat in depth, but the winner was a very impressive one and a few in behind could also be competitive in pattern company during the second half of the season. The pace was a solid one and apart from some chaos at the first two flights which resulted in a couple of unseats, there were no hard luck stories insofar as the protagonists were concerned. However, the winning time was 3.6 seconds slower than the hanicap hurdle, 4.6 seconds slower than the Grade One novice, and despite Zanahiyr's race the previous day being ran at a snail's pace with two additional hurdles to jump, it was still 2.2 seconds slower than that contest. Furthermore, it was also the slowest of all bar one of the previous ten renewals and while this might be indicitive of a lack of class, it more reveals that the ground was deeper than the soft, yielding in places suggests. The winner won the race with impetuous ease from a strung out field consisting of acceptably placed horses. Though it would be an exaggeration to describe it as top class form, there would be little reason to suggest it is anything but reliable and above average.

    French Aseel won one of his nine starts in France for Philippe Decouz, but earned an equivalent mark of 82.4 and despite never racing beyond a mile, shaped as though a trip would suit. Heavy ground would also be beneficial and the skies opened nicely ahead of his delayed Irish debut. He had been entered in earlier races, and was withdrawn from an intended debut at Cork with a stone bruise. Nevertheless, he was well supported from double digit figures the previous day and started the race as 7/2 favourite. Tracking the leaders throughout, he was keen early and was still taking a grip towards the end of the back straight. His jumping was not impressive either as he was very big over the first, steadied and got in close to the second, was close again the fourth, big over the fifth and close again into what would be the last. He was left in front after leaving the back after the leader faded, and without so much as being shaken up, extended his advantage to twenty-two lengths on the line. For a performance so visually impressive, it is worth probing for negatives in order to gain perspective. Firstly, the winning time, however it is cut, is poor and while French Aseel won on the bridle, it is not guaranteed he would have found the several seconds needed to make it more respectable. Secondly, the way he travelled and jumped were not characteristic of a top class horse. And thirdly, he beat a hurdling newcomer, a horse who already needs four miles, a racecourse debutant, and a succession of horses who did not go in the ground. All of this notwithstanding, there is time for him to improve his jumping and travelling, the experience will do him good, and the form would still be in the top-five performances seen this season. While he still needs to prove himself against more substantial opposition, and on a sounder surface, French Aseel is still an exciting recruit to the division and will attract plenty of interest wherever he next appears. 137

    Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career. 112

    Ilmig began his racing career in October but he already managed a win by his second outing and was a promising second on his hurdling debut at Punchestown the following month. He failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Fairyhouse a fortnight prior to this outing, but was sent off second favourite to make amends here. There has been little cause for complaint in his hurdling thus far and apart from steadying and getting close to the second, jumped well once again. Held up in midfield, he moved to within a length of the lead approaching the last. However, he lacked the acceleration to maintain his place and would need most of the long run-in to regain his lost positions. Ilmig is probably more consistent than appears on the surface as he does not run bad races. Rather, and despite having an American pedigree in which includes Breeder's Cup Filly And Mare Sprint winner Covfefe at 2/2, and champion sprinter Green Desert at 4/2, he has a distinct lack of pace. It is also worth noting that the yard's juveniles rarely do well this time of year, and the stable has not been in good form in any case which would also paint this performance in a more sympathetic light. Ilmig is certainly talented enough to win a race of his own, and could also be a productive sort beyond the juvenile division. 106

    Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary company. 103

    Flying Scotsman landed a double at the Galway Festival, and ended his first stint on the flat with a mark of 87. However, he drifted from short prices on his first two outings and went from 7/2 to 11/2 in the ring ahead of this contest. His jumping has lacked assurance in the past and there was little discernible improvement third time out. He kicked his legs out at the first, steadied into the second, was slightly untidy over the fourth and fifth before steadying again into the last. Though he was certainly close enough going into the last, he was unable to find anything on the run-in and finished beaten by thirty-seven lengths. The first time application of a tongue tie was of no real assistance and the ground would have been unsuitable in any case. He has come nowhere near reaching his flat mark, but he could emerge as a well treated sort. Particular on dryer ground. 97

    Charlie Bassett has now gone thirteen races without a win, but he is a consistent type as well as a reasonable jumper. Apart from not getting particularly high at the fourth, he put in another acceptable round and was disputing second place just before the elbow. However, if anything can be held against Charlie Basset, then it would be a lack of stamina and it was this deficiency which saw him fade quickly in the closing stages. He is capable of better but will need a much sharper test to be seen to better effect. 96

    Ahaziah is rated just 37 on the flat, and though he improved between his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and his latest effort at Cork, he still had plenty to find. He was big over the first at it was the same case here, but beyond that, he posted an adequate round of jumping. Initially tracking the leaders, he lost his position towards the end of the back. However, once he was absorbed by the pack, he did not really lose any further ground. While finishing seventh off 125/1 implies he outran his odds, this performance was no stronger than that of his second outing. He is a good stone off this sort of level, but is showing himself a fair type who can be competitive in moderate company. 95

    Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr looks better with each performance by the former, and it was much the strongest hurdles form brought into this race. He was sent off at 11/10 to break his duck next time at Punchestown, but while he jumped well enough, he stopped quickly and was beaten twenty-two lengths. Some had retained faith in him as while he drifted from 11/4 in the morning, he still started as third third favourite. However, his jumping was not the cleanest it had been as he was steady into the second, close into the fourth, and he dived at the next. Although he was still in a clear second at the top of the straight, he faded quickly from thereon and was eventually beaten forty-one lengths. His stamina and resolve had been debatable going into this race and there was nothing here to alleviate those concerns. He may be rejuvenated by a speedier test or maybe a handicap mark, but his profile is also beginning to look precarious. 94

    Iberia is the highest rated flat recruit seen to this point, having earned a triple digit rating when third in the Royal Lodge, and vindicating same in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on his return in June. Though beating just two home in the Irish Derby and finishing last in a listed race at this venue when last seen in July, even those performances were stronger than anything achieved by the opposition. His joining John Halley instead of Joseph O'Brien dampened his prospects, and he drifted from 15/2 in the morning to 20/1 at the start. Racing in the rear, he was slow at the third and was already getting reminders at that stage. Nevertheless, he still jumped respectably and was moving into contention with intent when getting badly baulked on landing at the last. This effectively put paid to his race and he made no more contribution beyond passing beaten horses. Taken at face value, this was a disappointing effort. However, he is the closest it gets to an unlucky horse in this particular contest as it is feasible he could have improved several places but for being badly impeded at a critical stage. 88

    Next In Line won twice on the flat and earned a rating of 80 in the process. However, her breeding is not especially conducive to her new vocation and the trainer has no winners in the division. A quietly fancied outsider, she was hampered at the first, got in slightly close to the next and veered left at the fifth. Kept in mid-division, she never got into the body of the pack and would come home in her own time. Not a disgraceful introduction, not an encouraging one either. 80

    Hisnameis Mrdevitt is another dual winner from the flat, but had not shown good form on his latest three starts and other than being a distant relative of Min, is not bred for the division either. He doubled in price from 40/1 in the morning, to 80/1 at the off, and his cause was not helped by getting baulked at the first. He then steadied into the next, got in close to the third and jumped left at the fifth. He managed to join the rear of the pack turning for home and kept up for about a furlong, but would fade in the closing stages. 83

    Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite ahead of his hurdling debut at Punchestown, but it was by dint of the low quality in opposition. Had he been ridden more ambitiously, it is possible he may have won first time over hurdles. However, his defeat can more be attributed to his poor jumping and his round was little better here. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstacles before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. He is capable of better and while he was subsequently beaten twenty-seven lengths back at Punchestown on new year's eve, he was very well backed to finish third of the sixteen finishers. 81

    Pushover achieved nothing better than moderate form on the flat, and also had stamina concerns coming into the race. She started completely unfancied and never left the rear of the field before finishing tailed off. Save for jumping left at the first, her hurdling was fine, but there is little else to be drawn from this outing. 24

    Royal Marksman's best effort from seven flat outings was a third off 45 at Dundalk over seven furlongs in October. His sire is not likely to make an impact in the sphere and the trainer has yet to saddle a winner in the division. Starting at 150/1, Royal Marksman led from the start and developed a lead for half a dozen lengths. He was very big over the first, also gave the second some air, and was very slow over the third which cost him his advantage. He regained some of his advantage along the back, and was still in front at the beginning of the home turn, but he was a tired horse by that stage and would weaken dramatically to finish hopelessly tailed off. 0

    French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourth. 0

    Complete Fiction is not unfeasibly bred for a hurdling career and has joined a solid trainer in the division. However, his flat form is no better than moderate and while he jumped the first two flights reasonably well, he was soon getting reminders whereafter his jumping deteriorated. He was getting detached before leaving the back and finished the race almost two-hundred lengths behind the winner. 0

    Firstman won twice on the flat in France and while generally finishing nearer last than midfield in four runs for his new yard, was not running abhorrently in the context of this discipline. He was not fancied in the market, but received little luck in any case as he was badly hampered at the first before a loose horse separated Firstman from Peter Carberry at the second. Perversely, this was not an introduction without some promise however as he continued jumping with the rest of the field and while he steadied going into his other flights, the riderless Firstman still passed the post in third position. 0

    Poetica's best flat effort for Mark Johnston was a fourth off 58 at Chelmsford, two races before joining the Shark Hanlon yard. Her debut at Cork can be ignored as her saddle slipped at the second and she unseated at the fifth. This effort can also be ignored as she was hampered and unseated at the first. 0

    KEMPTON 27th December
    Preview review
    The strong prospect finished first, although it can not be said for certain if he would have gotten the best of feasible prospect Honneur d'Ajonc had the latter not capitulated at the last. Honneur d'Ajonc made a promising debut at Exeter and although he may have been better suited by the demands of Chepstow than of Kempton, the easing of conditions were in his favour. Her Indoors would finish second by virtue of her noted flat speed which offset her noted poor jumping. Siroco Jo was a disappointment, but he was backward on his French outing and a drift in the market foreshadowed his moderate jumping.

    Race review
    A race with a history of producing good juveniles, it has continued in this vein since becoming an introductory hurdle in 2016. The latest edition had every potential to be a useful affair and despite Siroco Jo disappointing, the winner and the final flight faller could be decent recruits. The front two approaching the last were clear of the remainder who were headed by benchmarks who while flawed and limited, also set a helpful standard.Despite a quicker early gallop, the winning time was over two seconds slower than that set in the concluding handicap hurdle. Although the ground will have dried through the day and being a Class 3 contest, the juveniles recorded a reasonable time for the division.

    Heross Du Seuil came into the race as something of an unknown quantity as he was a comfortable winner of an ordinary AQPS flat race back in August. Nevertheless, he joined a leading yard which does well with his type, and is closely related to Defi du Seuil. Held up towards the rear, he settled well for a fresh and inexperienced horse, and while he was slow and steady at several of his flights, it was not enough to warrant strong trepidation and he also put in a few clean jumps along the way. Making headway to join the front rank turning for home, a steady approach to the penultimate flight cost him a length on the leader. He got to within half a length at the last and, with his rival's capitulation, was left unopposed on the run-in. It is difficult to speculate on whether he would have won had Honneur d'Ajonc stayed on his feet as while his opponent did get first run and Heross du Seuil was going through the gears, the former jumped the last quicker and while the latter was ridden out for much of the run-in, his stride was not lengthening and it took him nearly eighteen seconds to get from the last to the line. Nevertheless, it was still a highly promising introduction to hurdles and with fitness, experience and more fluent jumping, Heross du Seuil can develop into a useful sort. 125

    Her Indoors had been destined to become a juvenile hurdler before she developed into a fairly useful sort on the flat, and her being thrown into Listed company on her jumps debut at Aintree was rewarded with an encouraging second. Four hurdles were omitted on that occasion which very probably helped her finish second instead of first as there was much to be desired from her jumping. While she was backed into favouritism, it was unlikely to be based on exceptional schooling reports as she was less than exemplary once again. After a big hop at the first, she steadied into and was close at the second, close again and the fourth and fifth, slow over the sixth, and steady and close over the penultimate flight. She used her flat speed to gain a place on the run-in at Aintree and did so once again here, gaining half-a-dozen lengths after the last to finish second by a half length. An improver on the flat, Her Indoors patently has the ability to win a race and progress beyond this level. However, it is essential that her hurdling improves beforehand. 108

    Ambassador bookended his flat career for Richard Fahey with a pair of third placed finishes, and made a respectable start to his hurdling career at Warwick seventeen days earlier. Save for a couple of errors, he posting a decent enough round of jumping, and other than skewing at the first and getting the last wrong, was competent once again. Racing wide behind the leaders, he was on the premises turning in without being able to make a challenge and was weak in the concluding stages of the race. Nevertheless, it was an improved effort from a form perspective and while he is quite limited in his scope, the ability to win an ordinary contest is there. 115

    Royaume Uni won on the flat in France for Andre Fabre and is bred to be a capable hurdler. He completely lacked fluency on his British debut at Sandown three weeks earlier, but while he was weak in the market beforehand, posted an improved round of jumping second time out. He was slightly baulked at the first and fifth, but apart from steadying at the fourth and being slow over two out, gave a honest hurdling display. Despite winning over 2900 meters on soft ground at Angers, he finished tired here and may show more when reaching a better standard of fitness. 103

    Sarceaux won the second of her three starts for Mikael Delzangles, which came in a provincial race on good ground. While the trainer has already had a large priced winning juvenile this season, Sacreaux went into this race completely unfancied having missed her intended hurdling debut at Aintree on account of the ground. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. This was not a debut without promise and while she may end up being no better on fair, there are moderate enough races on better ground in which she might be competitive in due course. 92

    Alborkan had won two of his last three starts on the flat for Amy Murphy, and despite being purchased by Venetia Williams, has stayed in Newmarket for his hurdling career. While his flat rating of 75 alone is enough to warrant respect in this discipline, his tough attitude made him especially endearing. He went over the first two flights adequately, but his jumping deteriorated away from the stands as he steadied slightly into the third, got in close to the fourth, clipped the top of the fifth and got in especially close to three out where his stride was awkward in its aftermath. Nevertheless, he still moved well enough to briefly go into second on the turn for home, but had nothing else to give from thereon in and would fade in the straight. It is worth noting that while generally a consistent sort, his two worst efforts on the flat came after a break. Having returned here after a sixty-eight day lay-off and demonstrating ability and aptitude in certain stages of this race, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to build on this outing. 98

    Sly Minx began her three-year-old campaign well enough with a seventh in a listed race, a second in a Beverley maiden and a win at Catterick in early July. However, she was well beaten on her final two starts for Mick Channon and poor jumping saw her hopelessly tailed off on her hurdling debut at Fontwell. Completely unfancied and keen early here, she was very untidy at the first, skewed badly at the third, went left at the fifth and got in too close to three out. Never leaving the rear, she ultimately finished tailed off. She reportedly lost her near-fore shoe. 29

    Siroco Jo split a pair of reasonable types at Clairefontaine in August and would likely have won but for being so inexperienced. Representing a yard which has won this race with good sorts over the years, he started the day at 3/1 but was nearly double that price at the start. Though he settled nicely enough just behing the leaders, he was steady and close at the first two flights, got the fourth flight wrong, tried to jump the road after four out, and was steady again at three out. While still in contention entering the home turn, he was being hard ridden and quickly lost touch prior to pulling up before the penultimate flight. This was obviously a disappointing performance but he should not yet be written off. The first time out strike rate for the yard's French recruits is 34.18% for hurdlers and 24.00% for flat imports. However, while these are impressive figures, Siroco Jo's underperformance is not inherently exacerbated by the trainer's good record as the second time out rates increase to 37.1% and 44.44% respectively. Ex-French Paul Nicholls juveniles beaten first time amount to fifty-two, of which twenty-four won their next start in the division including Anniversary winner All Yours, Finale winner Quel Destin and Fred Winter winner Qualando as well as future talents such as Frodon, Saphir du Rheu and Brampour. This season alone, Viroflay and Hacker des Places are both flat recruits who obliged after disappointing first runs. However, it should also be noted that none of these redeemers were actually pulled up first time so while the statistics offer Siroco Jo some saving grace, he still has to account for his own actions. 0

    Jalwan never raced beyond an extended nine furlongs on the flat and there is no indication on breeding that he will make a jumper. Though shorter in the market than stablemate Royaume Uni, Jalwan was still relatively unfancied ahead of his hurdles bow, and first run since August. Held up in the rear, he was untidy over the second and not much better at the third, and began to get detached on the stretch before the turn before pulling up after three out. He reportedly bled through the nose. 0

    Warranty was a good winner of a Beverley maiden handicap on his final start for Mark Johnston, a race which worked out better than its description suggests. However, he jumped sloppily and without confidence first time at Wetherby and was beaten nineteen lengths. Running in first time blinkers here, he jumped the first flight well and brushed through the top of the second. That was the end of his examination as he was carried out at the bend shortly afterwards. While it is difficult to assess such a limited performance, the way he jumped the first was encouraging and it will be hoped that the drama does not curtail this improvement. 0

    Cloud Thunder finished runner up on his final three flat outings, and was thrown into the deep end on his hurdling debut in Doncaster's Summit Hurdle. Keen in the early stages and was a novicey jumper, he finished that race tired and tailed off. These were calmer waters but his participation was short lived as he made a mess at the first, was better at the second, but chose to run out rather than have anything else to do with the hurdling business. He is not short on flat ability and seemed genuine enough in that sphere. However, his regard for his new profession is dubious. 0

    Honneur d'Ajonc had not seen the racecourse prior to his Exeter bow in November, but he travelled well and apart from a few errors, jumped very acceptably before finishing second to Monmiral. His pedigree and style of racing suggested that he may have preferred conditions at Chepstow than here. Nevertheless, he was not short of supporters in the market and made a good impression second time out. Though he was keep early, he jumped quickly and tidily and went into the lead left by the drama at the first turn. This lead, while threatened up the straight by Heross du Seuill, was only relinquished at the last where though he took off well enough, he was unable to get his front feet out in time, consequently knuckling and going arse over tits. Fortunately, he appeared to get up happily enough and though his shins will likely be a bit sore, it will be hoped that his confidence will not be aversely affected. While Honneur d'Ajonc still has a fair amount to learn, he has quickly shown himself a horse with strong potential in terms of ability and aptitude. 125

    WETHERBY 27th December
    Preview review
    The strong prospect was a very long way clear of the sole remaining reasonable prospect, and the sole remaining reasonable prospect was even further clear of the remainder. The task of Hacker Des Places was made considerably easier by the withdrawal of three competitive rivals, and the fact he could jump and go through the ground turned the contest into a formality. Caldwell did not appear to have any issues with the ground and the yard's record at the venue was noted, although so too was his conspicuous headcarriage which translated into a poor round of jumping. Sir Charles Punch lacked conviction in his jumping once again and Danger Money is still some way off showing his better form. Other than erroneously stating that Brian Ellison had two runners in the race due to a late night brain-fart, there is nothing really to revisit and address.

    Race review
    With the withdrawals of En Couleur, Herbiers and Kings Creek turned this into a one horse race. The going was heavy and there was driving rain throughout the race so conditions were especially demanding. Most of the field did not go through the ground and those who did jumped poorly. The pace was set by the winner and was sufficient to demolish his opponents. The winning time was just a second and a half slower than the earlier novice which is quite laudable given that the aforementioned was somewhat competitive and was not run a heavy shower. The field finished well strung out and in a feasible order, but in strict terms of pounds per length, the form would only really be of interest on the rare instances that they return to running on a ploughed field.

    Hacker Des Places finished third to Paros on his debut before winning his own race at Dax in June. He was a well supported favourite on his UK debut at Wincanton, and did not run poorly behind his stablemate. However, in the context of his starting price of 4/9, that performance could only be viewed as a disappointment. He missed a couple of engagements prior to his return to the track, but the patience of the connections was rewarded with an emphatic success. He had been fresh on all three starts to date, which was particularly to his detriment at Wincanton, and was also prone to some sloppy jumping. While he was somewhat keen early on, he settled before too long and his hurdling prior to the straight was fine with his transgressions limited to jumping slightly to his right. He got in close to three out, and rapped the top of the last two, but he was still the best jumper in the race by a considerable margin. Leading throughout and taking the shortest route rather than searching for better ground, his main rival was within a length jumping the third last. That margin doubled without any stimulus from the rider by the penultimate flight, and after being shaken up on the approach to the, the gap extended to well over a dozen lengths and he was pushed out to finish with a superiority of a distance. In the review of Siroco Jo's performance, the record of Paul Nicholls horses who failed to win on their first starts was addressed in detail. Insofar as what happens in the third race of a stable's juvenile who won after a defeat is concerned, one overcorrection is met with another overcorrection as only two of the nineteen qualifiers sustain their redemption. Notwithstanding, the return to heavy ground saw Hacker des Places in a much more favourable light and while rating the performance of such an isolated winner is generally much of a muchness, it would be fair to say that he is not without talent and should continue his progress when facing these conditions. 124

    Caldwell first saw the racecourse in late August and was placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld. The standard of form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and while he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions here. A more conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, this was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. Nevertheless, having his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he should be competitive in ordinary company. 86

    Sir Charles Punch's Achilles heel on the flat was that while he had ability, his propensity to get worked up preventing him from exercising same. Over jumps, he has settled better but instead, has a complete lack of confidence over his hurdles. While the round also featured some untidiness, his penchant for steadying into his hurdles is proving costly and unless this is addressed then this now fifteen race maiden will continue to underachieve. 38

    Danger Money finished his flat career for Andrew Oliver with a rating of 92 which is one of the highest seen in the division this season. However, his last two starts in Ireland were regressive and there was a suspicion that he was growing sour. Though not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut, he showed no sign of a rejuvenation and his jumping left a lot to be desired as he lacked fluency and made several quite bad errors. Although bad jumps debuts from good flat horses can often be forgiven, Danger Money is making a habit of running poorly. 38

    Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. He skewed over the first, was somewhat big over the third, was slow over the seventh and went through the top off two out. Nevertheless, his round was not the worst on display and he settled better than he had done on the flat. He was still completely tailed off although it was reported that he lost his near-fore shoe. 28

    Fahad jumped poorly but passed beaten horses on his hurdling debut at Catterick on good ground, then returned to the venue where he jumped marginally better but was well beaten on soft ground. Here in heavy ground, he jumped poorly and never left the rear. He also lost his near-fore shoe. 11

    El Jefe was moderate on the flat, but his best effort came last time when second in a Redcar handicap off 51. That was his first outing after a wind operation, and eighty-five days later, he was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut here. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. 9

    Flight Command won a mile handicap off 53 on his final start in Ireland and Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler is not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. However, without being bad, his jumping was untidy and he was dropped from a midfield position at the end of the straight whereafter he was pulled up. 0

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    I tend not to preview juveniles in non-juvenile races as a matter of course due partially to time constraints, partially to my accidently missing them, and largely because I have no idea what to make of the older horses. Nevertheless, there are a few interesting ones running tomorrow. Not interesting in the sense that they might be Triumph horses, but interesting nonetheless.

    1.20 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle
    State Crown chg Evan Williams f3-0-2 (78) 79 j2-0-2 (116) 106 117
    New Approach (Dubawi){10-a}(0.75) No jumps relatives
    Since leaving Charlie Appleby for £24,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale, State Crown has finished runner-up twice in as many starts over hurdles. The form of his debut outing at Ludlow has worked out very well, with winner Talking About You following up in a pair of listed races, runner-up Naizagai filling the same position in handicaps at Sandown and Wetherby off 115, and the fourth placed Mr Shady finishing second next time at Wetherby. Next time at Newcastle, he finished second by a neck to Son Of Red who since ran with credit at Cheltenham. There is little cause for concern insofar as jumping is concerned and though he could learn to settle better, his resilience in battle is not in doubt. Plumpton is one of the easier courses in the country, and his in-form trainer has won three from sixteen with handicapping juveniles in the past five years. On known form, he is fairly treated and with improvement, his mark would be kind. A more pressing concern would be that he has yet to run on anything slower than good and while there are mixed messages in the pedigree, there is a lean towards better ground.

    PROSPECTS: Reasonable

    1.45 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle
    Crassus bg Noel Meade f10-0-3 (68) 76 j4-1-2 (119) 110 125
    War Command (Seeking The Gold){4-m}(1.89) 0.5 Indian Chief PU Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2019
    It took Crassus thirteen races to get off the mark before winning at Limerick early last month. Prior to that, he finished second to Duffle Coat and Glorious Zoff, and was in the process of running a fine race against Zanahiyr at Bellewstown before falling. Though lacking confidence at Sligo following his fall, the clear round did him a world of good and he jumped as well as ever on his latest start over hurdles. The form of his Limerick race has worked out respectably as runner-up Palm Beach came very close to winning on Boxing Day, Zoffanien ran creditably in the same contest, and the well beaten fourth, Saga Malta, ran a similar race on new year's eve. There were concerns that Crassus did not respond well to the whip, and tomorrow's rider Lisa O'Neill has been more whip than hands in close wins in the past. Nevertheless, when Crassus was last seen in a Dundalk handicap, he closed well after a slow start without his rider making much use of the whip so it is assumed that these will be the instructions. On form, Crassus is fairly treated on his debut run, and well treated on his outings at Ballinrobe and Limerick. The conditions should present no concerns and in isolation from what the opponents might be able to produce, Crassus goes into the race with a nice profile.

    PROSPECTS: Strong

    Rock Chica bm Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (36) 40 j4-1-0 (108) 104 105
    Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
    Though moderate on the flat, Rock Chica has done better over hurdles and she followed a career best fourth on her jumps bow at Punchestown with a bloodless win in a fillies' maiden at Tipperary in October. Only the first flight faller has been seen since, but she enjoyed the testing conditions and jumped well to win by twenty-six lengths. She has subsequently been outclassed in a winners' race at Punchestown where she jumped poorly, and in a Grade Three at this venue when flattered to finish close to Druid's Altar. The yard has not been in great form recently, and her even her best effort would not leave her kindly handicapped. Conditions ought to suit, but she will need to improved since last seen to challenge Crassus.

    PROSPECTS: Feasible

    2.02 Catterick 2m3½f Novices' Hurdle
    Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j4-2-2 (123) 115 124
    Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
    Though his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in September was a winning one, he needed almost every yard to win what was a moderate contest. He built on that performance when third in a better on his return to that venue the following month and doubled his tally on good ground here at Catterick a fortnight later, once again needing every yard. A step up in class followed and he acquitted himself well in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster. Jumping well except for when his concentration caused minor errors, he was no match for the promising Monmiral, but lost little credit in defeat as he still ran on well and was a long way clear of the remainder. The additional half mile here should come as a gift to Gold Desert and his yard had a 50/1 runner-up in a Musselburgh juvenile on Friday. His winner's penalties eat into most of his age allowance however and while Monticello is coming back after a long lay-off and Finisk River gives him the best part of a stone, Frimeur du Lancray ran well at Haydock on his first run since a wind operation and that form has worked out well. Gold Desert has proven himself a hardy battler and comes here with every chance, but if that is enough to offset the apparent class advantage of Frimeur du Lancray is a matter to be resolved at the track.

    PROSPECTS: Very Reasonable

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    With no juveniles running tomorrow and few races scheduled for the coming week regardless of the cold snap, I have eased off a little and have just got the reviews up to the 29th for the time being.

    Before I post them, a quick note on Crassus's race today at Fairyhouse. I will preface this by saying that I am generally very reticent about criticising the rides given by jockeys. Not only can it be mean spirited and unduly personal (which should never be anybody's intention), but making a good "wine glass" shape on a mechanical horse is the extent of my lived race riding experience. Nevertheless, in my amateur opinion, I thought the ride given to Crassus this afternoon was not good. She pulled him when he was very nicely settled up front and going a sensible gallop. She made no effort to turn the screws when there was still a lot of horse beneath her on the turn in. She rode him going into the final flight, but pulled him at the last moment even though he is an habitually sound and clever jumper whose leap at the last at Limerick sealed the race. Then, her actions in the finish consisted of pulling Crassus with one hand and whipping him with the other which was precisely what should not have been done with the particular horse. It is entirely possible that with the perfect ride, Crassus may have still been beaten by the plot horse. Nevertheless, were I the owner of Crassus, I would be asking Noel Meade for an explanation.

    Now it will likely be a day or two before I review the performance properly and if anybody can point out where I am mistaken then I will gladly amend my perspective. I would much rather be correct than proud in my contributions, and I am not a fan of being critical of human beings when the error is fundamentally harmless in the grand scheme of things. I actually feel like a bit of a rotter now so to lighten the air a bit, here's a clip of a doggy watching a horse race.

    https://i.imgur.com/Um6UnHW.gifv

    Good Ball 29/12/2020 Newbury 2m½f Introductory Hurdle
    Good Ball came into the race having finished second on his sole start in France where the front pair were clear from a subsequent large margin winner. Coming from the same race as the yard's Solo and Stratagem and through the same connections as Saphir du Rheu and Irish Saint, Good Ball was following exalted hoofsteps. He jumped big a couple of times during an otherwise fine debut performance, and apart from slightly steadying into the first, hurdled very well for his new yard and was not fazed when bumped in mid air at the penultimate flight. Though he is bred to excel at the minimum trip, Good Ball shaped very much as though he would be suited by further. Shadowing the leaders for much of the contest, he was badly outpaced and dropped to midfield passing the cross fence. He had six ahead of him jumping three out, four ahead of him at the penultimate flight, and still had half a dozen lengths to find after clearing the last. Nevertheless, he finally found the necessary gear to take the lead at the half-furlong marker and won comfortably going away. Measuring the form is not straightforward as the next four finishers were all unexposed, and all covered by two lengths. The winning time was half a second faster than the preceding handicap hurdle and the early pace was similar in both races. Given the manner of the success and some weight for age faffery, a mark in the mid 120s would not be absurd. Good Ball is a decent stamp of a horse who might be the type to do better with another year to his name. Nevertheless, although he took a while to get going, he did most things right for a newcomer and with the benefit of experience, there is no reason why he can not do useful things this campaign. 124

    Asharann 29/12/2020 Doncaster 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (107)
    On his hurdles form thus far, Asharann was not especially well treated before being three pounds wrong here. Nevertheless, he jumps reasonably well, would not be harshly treated on his best flat form and could feasibly improve to such a mark if learning to settle better. The early tempo here was so slow that a horse who refused to race at the start was able to make up twenty-odd lengths before the field went a furlong. While such courtesy is seen as good sportsmanship in professional cycling, it is a rarer occurrence when bikes are replaced by horses. Asharann was somewhat keen early, but was lit up when he saw an upcoming set of hurdles and was difficult to settle from there. He still jumped all four of his hurdles ok and while he never progressed beyond midfield, was still in contention at the distance. Asharann faded in the final furlong which will likely have been his early pulling taking its toll. This essentially matches his best hurdling form to date and once again, he has the capacity to improve if learning to settle. 100

    Preview review
    This one was quite disappointing. Taking Ronde De Nuit aside, the front three of the prospects list matches the race result. However, despite Progressive having all of the credentials that typically carry weight in the previews, a newly built formula showed that horses in general do better with experience at Doncaster and because of the recency bias, this stuck with me. That there were less hurdles jumped perhaps altered the impact of the course's configuration, but in any case, Progressive should not have been underestimated. Insofar as the reasoning behind Ronde De Nuit's prospects were concerned, they were mostly sound but while the Exeter debut was disappointing, this was just lamentable. Given the finishing positions and distances, nothing else was either under or overestimated.

    Race review
    A maiden hurdle restricted to fillies, this would not be an especially classy affair and traditionally, it has been some way off the standard juvenile ran at the venue. With the introduction of the listed race at the end of January, this maiden has more recently been used as a trial for that contest and this year's winner would not be out of place. Due to the low sun, only four hurdles were jumped which in itself, reduces the relevance as an examination of hurdling ability. Nevertheless, the winner has a solid profile, the runner-up showed her debut at Leicester was not a fluke, and this pair were clear of the rest. The strength of the form lacks real substance at this juncture, but the winner should progress.

    Progressive, a daughter of Nathaniel, was a progressive winner on the flat for Roger Varian, and has joined a top yard for her new vocation. She was fresh in the early stages of her first outing for over eighty days, but was suitably settled in midfield after a couple of jumps. She hurdled well over the first and the third where she was ridden into the approach, whereas she slightly skewed over the second and got close into the fourth when steady on the approach. She began her pursuit five lengths in arrears of the leader who got first run at the top of the straight, but was not hard pressed to steadily eat into that gap and would head her rival just before the furlong pole before being ridden out for a comfortable two and a quarter length success. The bare form is not worth a great deal at this juncture, but she has shown she can travel and jump well while having scope for plenty of improvement for the experience. There is a gap to be bridged before she matches the likes of Hiconic, Talking About You and Fiveandtwenty, but she would be receiving weight from all of those should they meet at the venue and Progressive would be well worth a place in that company. 107

    Gilbertina achieved nothing in two starts on the flat prior to her hurdling debut at Leicester where she belied odds of 200/1 to finish third. There she overcame novicey jumping in the early stages before settling into a decent rhythm and while she was beaten eighteen lengths in the end, she maintained her position relative to the remainder. Taking the initiative from flagfall, Gilbertina jumped the first two correctly but steadied and skewed over the third while stumbling after the fourth. She still held the lead turning for home and got first run over her rivals. Though caught and held by her superior rival, she finished twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. An unexposed horse who confirmed and surpassed her Leicester performance, Gilbertina should remain competitive in ordinary contest and has the capacity for further progression. 105

    Licit was backed from 7/1 in the morning to 10/3 ahead of her hurdling debut, a move which replicated that for her stablemate Kentucky Hardboot's debut at Kempton. While the yard is not noted for its jumpers, it has sent out two placed juvenile hurdlers from as many horses this season. A winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit is feasibly bred for her new career and the services of Bryony Frost were employed. Her jumping left plenty to be desired as she essentially got too close to and hopped over all four of her hurdles. Still in last position on the approach to the final flight, she tracked the winner's move along the final turn. While she was soon left in her wake, she was able to put a sizable margin between herself and the remnants of the race. Licit was not disgraced on her debut, but her hurdling needs a lot of work and the bare form is not outstanding. 83

    Breadcrumbs had been well beaten in two bumpers and was sent off rank outsider here. Always towards the rear, she jumped the first two adequately, but steadied into and got too close to the final two with her last jump causing her to get detached. She was able to pluck off beaten horses one by one, and would take a remote fourth in the concluding furlong. Breadcrumbs was not given too hard a time of things, and may do better with a trip. However, there is no cause for immediate enthusiasm. 74

    Kimberley ran creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, albeit her latest two starts for that yard were below par. Following a 10,500 guineas sale, she joined a Oliver Greenall yard which can do well with juveniles, although sire Oasis Dream does not have a strong record in the division. Chasing the leader from the start, she got in close to all of her hurdles and was involved in a barging match along the stretch away from the stands. Though still in second when entering the straight, she weakened thereafter and was ultimately beaten by fifty-five lengths. Along with still being green, Kimberley's jumping was not up to scratch and her lack of stamina was conspicuous. She may be entitled to improve on her return after three and a half months off the track, and the yard's runners do improve with experience. However, she has plenty to prove at this juncture. 52

    Call Me Sainte is bred to make a juvenile hurdler, but she made an inauspicious debut in an Exeter bumper seventy days earlier. Subsequent wind surgery and the application of a hood did nothing for her performance as she pulled hard early, went through the top of the first and hopped over the remaining three while steadying and getting too close. 48

    Hunter's Dawn brought the best bumper form to the race, but the sum of which was no better than moderate and she ran out when competing at this venue in late November. A subsequent flat outing at Southwell saw her tail off and she was very keen here. The other participant in the barging match, this battle hindered her early jumping and was exacerbated by her keenness. She was the first of those racing prominently to be beaten and was beaten nearly eighty lengths. 29

    Ronde De Nuit ran with promise on her sole flat outing at Angers, and though she was beaten over fifteen lengths on her hurdles debut at Exeter in November, she shaped with enough promise to justify being sent off the second favourite here. However, while she was always in a good position and jumped well save for clipping the second and getting distracted at the last, she finished extremely weakly. The trainer's rep suggested she was unsuited by the going and given that she raced on the inside throughout, and that Doctor Dino's progeny act on good ground, there may be merit to this theory. Nevertheless, Ronde De Nuit's constitution is not appealing and she will need to prove herself in this regard before she can rekindle her reputation. 23

    Flippance opened in the morning at 16/1 but this was by sheer virtue of her trainer as her flat form is poor and she has already undergone a wind operation. Though baulked on landing at the first, her jumping was poor nevertheless and after pulling hard in the early phases, was dropped from her midfield position after the last and finished hopelessly tailed off. 0

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    French Asseel bought by the Donnellys and sent to Willie Mullins

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    French Asseel bought by the Donnellys and sent to Willie Mullins
    They nicely filled the gap left by Wylie and to a lesser extent Ricci
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    With this batch, we are now up to date with the reviews. Hurrah! Juveniles I'm Easy, Monash and Wightman as set to contest "jumpers bumpers" tomorrow. However, as my concerns with the division are based on hurdlers, these outings will likely receive little attention outside of future previews.

    TAUNTON 30th December
    Preview review
    Could have been worse. Flying Tiger drifted before his racecourse debut and reportedly made a noise but without Can't Stop Now falling at the last, the prospects list and finishing order would not have been too distorted. Strong prospect Volkovka was the cleanest jumper of the race, went down by a narrow margin and may well have won had her rival not found the rail. Wightman had feasible prospects and his imperfect jumping was once again prevalent, but slightly diluted since his debut and the noted sharper test was very much to his advantage. Can't Stop Now was in the process of running a fine race, but the free running sort was still prone to making errors and with the Taunton not being as sharp as Fakenham, the moderately higher demands proved telling. Iron Heart received plenty of market support, but was once again let down by his jumping.

    Race review
    This did not look a bad contest beforehand, but by the same token, it was not especially strong either. The principles had every reason to finish as they did and the distances were very reasonable.. Nevertheless, while the race was run at a solid pace, it was still some three and a half seconds slower than the race won by Talking About You later on the card. Nevertheless, the tempo was sufficient to thin the field out before too long, and those that remained were a class ahead of the outsiders. The form looks reliable enough, but since the principles are not obvious penalty defiers, the contest overall has about it a "division three" quality.

    Wightman won one from twelve on the flat and his latest official rating of 69 is just above average for the division. Staying with Mick Channon for a hurdling career, he ran with some promise at Newbury where he was an eighteen length sixth in a better race. His jumping was not catastrophic, but he did have a tendency to land steeply which re-emerged to a lesser degree here. He also rather failed to see out the trip, but this sharp circuit will likely have been the upper end of his limits. Along with being steep over the second and the seventh, Wightman skewed at the first, was slow over the third, close at the fourth and stumbled slightly at the seventh. Again, none of these errors were catastrophic, and after being prominent in the pursuit of the clear leader for much of the contest, had bridged the gap at the turn for home and jumped the last in a marginal lead. The battle with Volkovka along the entirety of the run-in was tight and well contested throughout. He briefly played second fiddle, but his drifting to the rails proved advantageous as he regained the lead at the line to score by a head. This was good improvement on his Newbury bow, and it brings Wightman closer to the best of his flat form which came over a mile. Life will be more difficult under a penalty and though there is scope for improvement in the jumping department, he will probably need another test as sharp as this in order to perform. 106

    Volkovka had shown fair form on the flat in France and despite being bought out of a claimer, her flat ability is above average for the sphere. She flopped badly on her British debut at Fakenham and was in the process of running only a fair race when blundering badly next time at Leicester. She got off the mark at Market Rasen just over a fortnight later thanks to moderate opposition and her best round of jumping to date. Apart from minor imperfections at the fourth and seventh, she posted another decent display of hurdling and traded as low as 1.1 in-running to double her hurdles tally. Initially held up towards the rear of midfield, she moved comfortably through a field that struggled to live with the pace. Reaching the front alongside the winner at the final flight, she plugged on gamely and was only denied by Wightman's discovery of the rail. This marks a hurdles best to the tune of roughly half a stone, and there may be further to come if stepped up in trip. 105

    Iron Heart's three strongest performances on the flat for Andrew Balding came when 'firm' appeared in the going description. His first two jumps appearances were marked by reticent hurdling, although he also picked up minor injuries during those outings which might have accounted for same. He built on his Wincanton form when last seen at Newbury where he finished five lengths ahead of Wightman, and was backed into favouritism to get off the mark here. There was less apprehension in his hurdling here, but it was not an error free round as was somewhat untidy at the first, got close into the second and sixth and was steady approaching the fourth. He was never far off the leaders but simultaneously, never got to within a threatening position and was left in third after the last. Though many juveniles from the yard find their footing when switched to handicaps, the market support beforehand suggested that improvement may have been forthcoming here. Were it the case that Iron Heart had become more assured at his jumping then the confidence was partially vindicated. However, his jumping remains far from polished and he has yet to show himself proficient on softer ground. His fresh rating of 107 is not especially harsh based on his hurdles form and could be quite viable on his flat form, especially on a sounder surface. 95

    Shutupshirley has a stout pedigree for a juvenile hurdler and in the two runs since his racecourse debut in October, he has found himself decidedly outpaced. Always in the rear, he was unable to live with the early tempo on this sharp circuit and finished a never nearer eighteen length fourth after passing beaten rivals. His jumping was fine as per usual and the trainer afterwards reported a respiratory noise. Though his mark of 101 does not reflect his hitherto achievements, it is not unreasonable to assume that a step up in trip and a breathing operation should foment improvement. 87

    Theocrat made a fair hurdling introduction at Ludlow in early October when less than four lengths fourth to Orchestral Rain, but pulled too hard for his own good when returning to Shropshire the following month. He pulled again in the early stages here but had settled better after around three furlongs. Though slightly untidy at a few of his hurdles and putting in a tired leap two out, his jumping is essentially passable for the sphere. While this was a step up on his last outing, it was still a long way from his debut performance and unless he is able to replicate same, his mark of 100 will be difficult to reach. 70

    Masterdream cost 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, but his flat form with John Oxx did not particularly warrant such a price and his two subsequent hurdles outings have been disappointing. He had lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles at Sandown, but in fairness, he was only steady at a couple here and was generally quite tidy. He was also impeded slightly at the first and at two out, but was never in a position to challenge in any case. Masterdream bettered his Sandown performance, but he still needs to show considerably more before he can be competitive. 68

    Can't Stop Now rather defied expectations when third on his hurdles debut at Kempton, and though he essentially refused to race next time at Ludlow, he was successful at Fakenham at the end of November. Despite running freely and jumping poorly, his free-running style enabled him to run out a rather decisive winner. He employed the same tactics here and despite wandering at the first. putting in a long leap at the third, going through the top of the fourth and getting close to the next two, he was only caught at the last. There, he failed to take off in time and took a tumbling fall. Though he held a commanding lead for most of the contest, he never traded odds-on in-running and was probably a spent force by the last flight. Thankfully he got up from his fall and he can post similar performances at this kind of level provided it is as a sharp track. While he might benefit from settling better, it appears that his potency lies in his immoderate style. Though he has subsequently been dropped two pounds to 122, this mark is still a good stone off his flat or jumps ability. 103

    Numberoneson had won off 79 on his final start for Joseph O'Brien in July, but was most disappointing on his first two starts over hurdles at Ludlow and Wetherby. His hurdling and travelling had been poor on each occasion, but running in first time blinkers, he tracked the leader for most of the contest and was still in second jumping the third last. He weakened quickly thereafter and was pulled up on entering the straight. While it is difficult to draw positives from such a performance, apart from steadying at the fourth and fifth, he jumped better than usual as well as travelling prominently for longer. Notwithstanding, while this perhaps betters his debut run despite pulling up, there is still clearly something missing and Numberoneson continues to have plenty to prove. 0

    Zellerate managed to finish runner-up last time at Fontwell, but he was almost fifty lengths behind the winner and those placed behind him ran abysmally. Otherwise, his career consists of tailing off in a bumper and now two pulled-ups. Never nearer than midfield, he was slightly baulked at a couple of hurdles, but still steadied into a few himself while jumping untidily at times. His rating of 83 is a low one, but it still flatters him on what he has achieved thus far. 0

    Presgrave is another former inmate of Joseph O'Brien's and while he did not win on the flat, his form in that sphere was at least average. He had been tried in all manner of headgear however and though he travelled easily enough, there was a discernible lack of fluency. He began the race in a prominent position, but was already losing ground entering the back straight and was pulled up before the turn for home. 0

    Impetuous finished her flat career with a rating of just 35 and was completely unfancied ahead of her hurdles bow. She was steady, big and untidy over her first few jumps and while she was marginally better at the fourth, she was already ridden and detached by that stage. She got in close to the next and was pulled up afterwards. 0

    Fighting Tiger is a half-brother to Flying Tiger who won the Fred Winter for the yard in 2017. Making his racecourse debut, he had already gone a wind operation and was a drifter in the market beforehand. He was untidy over his hurdles and pulled up before the sixth, reportedly having made a respiratory noise. 0

    Siempre Rapido has a flat rating of 70, but carried stamina doubts into this contest and was not fancied in the market. Though he hopped slightly over the first, he jumped his next four reasonably well. However, he weakened quickly and was pulled up before the next having also made a noise. 0

    Talking About You 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
    The transformation Talking About You has undergone since her jumps debut in early August has been little short of remarkable. While the began her hurdling career as an outlandishly temperamental sort, she was able to win on her third start at Fontwell before appearing to revert to form in her next couple of races. Returning after a wind operation and short break, she ran creditably at Fakenham before taking a large leap forward at Ludlow with a fine hurdling display resulting in a decisive victory. While her jumping was not as sound at Aintree, she gained her first black type and would double her pattern tally here. Disputing the lead for most of the contest, her jumping was once again lacking as she steadied into half of her hurdles as well as getting in close to a couple in a rather alarming fashion. Turning into the straight with a length advantage, she was very untidy and slow to get away from the last. Nevertheless, she was ridden out under a moderate drive to cross the line with a definitive two and a quarter length lead. While this marked a second listed win, the form should not really be overstated as even though the third was rated 140, she is flagrantly better on good ground. Nevertheless, she has reaffirmed her abilities against older horses and should remain a force to be reckoned with against her own sex in the division. Although talks of Cheltenham were dismissed by connections, Aintree has been a stated option. While she would be some way off the best colts in the division, particularly if the Irish contingent will be allowed to compete, a race like Doncaster's fillies' race later in the month could be a good target as she need only carry a five pound penalty. 124

    Marta Des Mottes 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
    Finishing well beaten on the flat in February, Marta Des Mottes was an 18/1 winner of an Angers claimer on her hurdling debut in May. After finishing an eleven length fourth in a better race at Clairefontaine, she won a good ground conditions event at La Teste De Buch in July, conceding upwards of five kilos from her strung out rivals. The form of neither of her wins has any real value, but her hurdling improved between these outings with neater jumps outnumbering those lacking fluency. Tom Symonds has done well with a small number of French hurdling recruits in the division, but Marta Des Mottes has only one behind her in the betting ahead of her British debut. Keen early while tracking the leaders, she was no worse than untidy with her worst error coming at the fifth where she was steady and skewed in the air. However, she was the first to come off the bridle in the back straight and would soon lose touch before finishing over thirty-five lengths last of five. There is little reason to suspect that this was her true showing as it was her first run in over five months and though she won a claimer on soft ground, she may be happier on a sounder surface. 84

    PUNCHESTOWN 31st December
    Preview review
    With Zanavi jumping poorly and Persia being withdrawn due to a bereavement, Riviere d'Etel's task was a simple one. Though she was keen in the early stages, it was not to the detriment of her performance and she ran out a very cosy winner. Zanavi's trainer has a 100% clear round record with his first time juveniles so his poor round could not really have been foreseen. He was badly baulked at the first which may have affected his confidence. The next four to finish had moderate and negligible prospects so in this regard, they were all underestimated by the preview and, barring Loved Out, the market. Coventry has a strong flat pedigree and just two runs to his name, was less exposed than most Ballydoyle cast-offs. Loved Out was well beaten four days earlier, but there was promise on his debut at this venue and though the record of his yard's juveniles returning quickly was poor, it was noted that the one placed horse was also the shortest priced and Loved Out started the race at a fifth of his morning price. Roma Delight had shown pace when free-running on previous outings, and a better round of jumping enabled her to stay in contention for longer. Saeer was given moderate prospects, but finished seventeen lengths behind Roma Delight in any case. Given that those who underperformed had only feasible prospects, the only real take aways would be to be more mindful of unexposed horses with potential, and those with experience of front running.

    Race review
    Following the withdrawal of Persia and the underperformance of Zanavi, Riviere d'Etel had not a great deal to beat. But though she was not always the tidiest, she was undeniably convincing. The winning time was over sixteen seconds quicker than the later handicap and while that was a moderate race and the ground may have been extremely testing at that point, Riviere d'Etel's time is still half a second per furlong superior to those posted in the other races against the standard. This is all the more noteworthy as the race was run through a veritable blizzard with moderate visibility. The overall standard of jumping could have been cleaner, but in fairness, these youngsters did quite well given the conditions. The winner was a different class, but the despite the long prices, those who finished behind had feasible reasons to do so and were very well strung out. Since the circumstances were quite exceptional, the form may not translate beyond its environment. Nevertheless, with the possible exception of Zanavi's confidence being shot at the first, there is little reason to not take the form at face value.

    Riviere d'Etel finished second in the pouliches version of the Prix Finot on her sole hurdles run where the front pair finished a long way clear, and the winning time was a good one. She had been quite wayward on that occasion which was also reflected in her jumping. Some of those tendencies were still apparent here, but running in a first time hood, she was still keen without being alarmingly headstrong and her jumping was never much worse than untidy. Tracking the leaders in the opening stages, she took the lead on turning away from the stands and after being shaken up briefly before the home turn, quickly established a commanding lead. Despite an untidy jump at the last, she was not asked to pick up and passed the post an easy twelve length winner. Though this was not a polished performance, it was still one of considerable potential and by far the strongest seen by any filly this season. She clearly handles testing conditions very well and while it remains to be seen if she can be versatile on better ground, her pedigree suggests that it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Although she could develop into Triumph class, the yard already has an embarrassment of riches in the division and the current favourite is in the same ownership. As such, the mares' novice might be a more feasible target should Irish horses be allowed to compete at the festival. 131

    Coventry is by Galileo and out of an Irish Oaks winning daughter of an Irish Oaks runner-up. He began his career at Ballydoyle, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens either side of early 2020. Prior to Coventry's run, John Halley saddled seventeen juveniles since 2008/09 with all of them formerly trained by Aiden O'Brien, and only Foreign Secretary winning a five runner Limerick contest in March 2019. Drifting from 22/1 to 50/1 in the ring, Coventry was at the head of the chasing group and moved into a prominent position towards the end of the back. Though his pursuit of the winner was a hopeless task, he was able to forge clear of the remainder over which he held a fifteen length advantage at the line. There is work to be done on his jumping as he was close at the first and fifth, slow over the second, steady and untidy at two and and somewhat careful over the last. This is the strongest debut performance from a John Halley trained juvenile during the past decade and it remains to be seen how long Coventry stays with his current handler as those who show promise, such as Ballyglasheen, Enchanted Forest and Great Trango, are usually moved along quite quickly. 119

    Loved Out failed to justify strong market support ahead of his hurdling debut here in November, partially due to an imperfect ride, but largely due to poor jumping. He was not much better at Leopardstown four days earlier where he finished down the field, but was well supported to make amends here. Having opened at 25/1 in the morning, he started this contest at a fifth of that price. Racing in tandem with Coventry for most of the race, he was left behind by his partner of convenience turning for home where his task switched to a long and protracted battle for third with Roma Delight. He prevailed by a short head although his drifting into the filly may have made the difference and probably would have been challenged in the stewards room had they been first and second past the post. Loved Out was very untidy over the first and slow over the second, but apart from getting close to the fifth, jumped reasonably well. This effort matches his debut course and distance performance and while he is limited in his potential, is capable of being competitive at a moderate level. 104

    Roma Delight spent the first portion of her career in the United States where she largely contested maiden claimers and ran to a fair level. In November, she ran no kind of race at Dundalk on her Irish debut and was subject to a peculiar ride on her hurdling bow over course and distance later that month. The strategy was less convoluted next time at Fairyhouse as she went to the front, jumped exuberantly, and tired five furlongs from home. Similar tactics were employed here and though she was somewhat keen, she was hardly pulling the rider's arms out and was settled behind the winner by the back straight. Her jumping had also improved as apart from hopping over the first and steadying slightly into the fourth, she posted her clearest round to date. Class began to tell in the concluding stages, but she was still an engaged participant in the battle for third which she ceded by the tightest of margins. This was a vast improvement on her previous efforts and she has clearly learned from her experiences. Though she has no pretentions to any higher level, she can make her presence felt in modest company. 97

    Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test. 87

    Away To Sea got worked up in the stalls before his sole flat outing at Tipperary back in August, but ran with credit to finish just over a four length fourth. The subject of support ahead of his hurdling debut, he was sent off at 6/1 from a morning show of 16/1. However, his jumping was not up to a decent standard and he made errors at every flight, ranging from steadying on the approach, getting too close and landing steeply. Tracking Coventry and Roma Delight, he was still in contention with a third of a mile to go, but was left behind by the principles and faded quickly thereafter. Though he is decidedly inexperienced, he has shown some ability on both of his outings and given that he is bred to do well in the sphere, he can still mature into something more compelling. 86

    Sweet Will was the most experienced runner in the field courtesy of his runs at Sligo, Fairyhouse and Limerick. The closest he had finished to the winner had been thirty-two lengths, but his jumping had been reasonable on his previous two outings. Save for a blunder at the sixth, he put in another acceptable round of hurdling without ever threatening to get remotely competitive. This effort matched his best in the sphere, and he is establishing himself as a consistent, if moderate performer. A handicap mark may help him more than a trip. 86

    Zanavi ran creditable race on the second of his two runs for Dermot Weld to finish runner-up in a Curragh maiden ahead of his €34,000 switch to Denis Gerard Hogan. By Champs Elysees and from the Petite Etoile damline, he has the credentials to do well in the sphere but was significantly uneasy in the market ahead of his hurdling bow. His introduction got off to an inauspicious start as he was badly baulked at the first. This may have had a significant effect on his confidence as he jumped poorly thereafter. Reticent and very close at the second, he was careful over the third, close to the next three and low and skewed at the third last. Though he was positioned on the more prominent end of midfield, he began to lose touch leaving the back and was never able to regain momentum. Due to his being impeded at the first, it is reasonable to forgive this performance even though the drift beforehand is not easy to ignore. 85

    Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date. 66

    Kashi was bought out of the Andrew Balding yard for 8,000 guineas after failing to match his debut second at Kempton in four subsequent outings. He is not unfeasibly bred for the discipline and though he went right at the first and was untidy at the second, his jumping was largely acceptable. He was unable to leave the rear however and was struggling a fair way from home before finishing tired. 53

    Rich Belief had a higher flat rating and price tag than stablemate Kashi and starting at 22/1, was also half his odds. However, he was always in the rear and jumped poorly before finishing eighteen lengths behind his travelling companion. 35

    Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear. 35

    Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for Franηois Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answer. 7

    Wonwabbitwon finished third at Leopardstown on his racecourse debut in June, and was not disgraced when fourth in a Curragh maiden when last seen in early November. His three outings in between had been moderate and he drifted from 12/1 to 50/1 through the day. Taking a keen hold and racing prominently, he was low over the first but otherwise jumped adequately. However, he lost his position leaving the back and would weaken rapidly from there before finishing hopelessly tailed off. Though the fact that he was beaten by over 161 lengths should not be ignored, this effort was not devoid of promise and he might provide a better insight into his ability in a less demanding contest. 0

    Undercommunication is not a forlorn hope for the division on his breeding, although he barely warranted his low flat rating and is a doubtful stayer. Nearer last than first, his jumping went from acceptable to poor from the fourth onwards and was also completely tailed off. 0

    Duck And Vanish was largely consistent on the flat for William Haggas and twice finished second in maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. 13,000 guineas looked a reasonable price for a horse of his ability, but he has already undergone a pair of wind operations and was weak in the market beforehand. Apart from being big over the first, he was largely adept at his hurdles and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, he weakened tamely and finished a further twenty-one lengths behind Undercommunication. 0

    Freds Honour is a homebred son of Rock Of Gibraltar and was making his racecourse debut here. He was not without some backers as he went from 80/1 to 66/1 before the off, but he jumped very untidily at the second and was slow over the next before fading and pulling up before three out. 0

    Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.

    MUSSELBURGH 1st January
    Preview review
    The strong prospect did not win in the fashion of a 1/4 shot, but was still the clear best on the day. Runner-up Herbiers started at a 50/1 which completely disregarded the multitude of factors which made him a reasonable prospect. Kings Creek ran close to form despite a lesser round of jumping and Red Missile also ran in keeping with his ability. Feldspar surpassed expectations which were broadly based on his moderate flat form, but there were factors within his profile which justified his improvement. There were no discernible oversights in the preview.

    Race review
    Fiveandtwenty followed up her course and distance success, but it was not as visually impressive and this is also reflected in the winning time which was 1.77 seconds slower than her debut win. Nevertheless, the early pace was almost identical and accounting for the additional eighteen yards and six pound penalty, it is essentially an identical performance. It was only 1.3 seconds slower than the Hogmaneigh Hurdle and although the front two in the contest were outsiders, neither were forlorn hopes. In assuming Fiveandtwenty matched her debut outing, the application of according ratings for Feldspar, who improved by over a stone for his hurdles debut, and for Kings Creek, who surpassed his Catterick win despite jumping poorly ,reveal potential inconsistencies. Nevertheless, the former had elements in his profile which made such improvement feasible, and the latter might well have improved for stripping fitter. Overall, it was a truly run contest and the concluding protagonists were credible. The first five were covered by just over seven lengths and the standard of jumping was rather moderate, but while a few might shift positions, the form looks reliable enough at face value.

    Fiveandtwenty won three times on the flat for Mark Johnston was a resounding twenty-six length winner of her hurdling debut over course and distance last month. She was backed from 8/15 to 1/4 to land the double and while she never looked like failing in her endeavour, was not quite as impressive. Making all as she had done the first time, she was untidy over the fourth, tripped over the next and was slightly untidy over a few others while being slow to get away from the last. Her advantage in December was of several lengths from the start, half a dozen on the turn and much further at the line, whereas in this instance, the pursuers were always within a couple of lengths and the gap never extended beyond the two lengths at the line. Fiveandtwenty did not see out the race like a fresh horse, but did not do so last month either. A winner over fourteen furlongs on good to firm at this track in September, it is plausible that this is as testing a circuit she can manage on soft ground, but may be adept at other venues on better ground. Though largely consistent and able, her rating of 129 looks harsh on what she has accomplished. The Scottish Triumph Trial has been suggested as a potential target. 118

    Herbiers was beaten sixty lengths on his British debut in an Exeter bumper, but his win at Moulins in June was sufficient for owners to reject a €100,000 bid at Arqana. There, he showed a fine battling attitude to win form a subsequent winner who has the measure of Ditcheat recruit Houx Gris. Eschewing Wetherby for the better ground here, he was unconsidered in the market and drifted from 20/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off. Racing wide and tracking the leader throughout, he was briefly caught for pace on the home turn, but was able to stay on up the run-in and had enough to fend off the the late challenge from the third. He settled well into the race and apart from being untidy at the second, was largely a proficient jumper. Though it remains to be seen how far he can progress, the Oliver Greenall yard appear to have a nice recruit on their hands. 117

    Feldspar made his racecourse debut in June, and showed only moderate form in four starts for Amanda Perrett. Following a 6,000 guineas sale in October, he won a Wolverhampton handicap on the second of his three flat outings for Keith Dalgleigh off a mark of 57. His latest rating of 59 was the second lowest in this race, but being by Champs Elysees and closely related to useful hurdler Nearby, a switch to hurdles was not an unreasonable move. Tracking the leaders in midfield, Feldspar made steady progress on the run-in and got to within a length of the runner-up on passing the post. Besides missing the penultimate flight and landing steeply at the last, he hurdled well for a debutant and demonstrated decent athleticism during the journey. Time will tell if this performance was a true reflection of his ability, but there is little obvious reason to doubt this showing at face value and he could improve further with a more demanding test. 117

    Kings Creek got off the mark at the fourth time of asking, ninth under both codes, when winning at Catterick last month. Formerly with Alan King, his initial performances had been professional without exuding noteworthy class. However, a seventy-seven break appeared to do him a world of good and he ran out a comfortable winner. His jumping was not as clean here as while he was fine over the first four flights, he was close to the fifth and sixth, untidy at the next, steady and low at two out, and untidy again at the last. The immediate impression is that he underperformed here. However, despite less than fluent hurdling, which has previously been compromised by racing at speed, the time, collateral form and weights indicate that this was a new career best. Evidently, for all that Kings Creek is a professional and consistent type, he probably needs kinder conditions and lesser company to be seen to full effect. 120

    Red Missile appeared in Triumph lists at 66/1 prior to his hurdles bow at Perth where he was a fairly disappointing third in a moderate company. He went to Musselburgh the following month to fill the same position, albeit in stronger company. His jumping improved between those outings and though he made three consecutive errors at the fifth, sixth and seventh, he still emerged with some credit in this regard. He had led on his previous jumps outings but opted to track the leaders here which while not eliminating his keenness, helped him to settle better. He was outpaced on the turn for home and was never able to make inroads from there, but stayed on nevertheless and was fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. Red Missile is edging closer to his flat form with each outing and with maturity and a spin around a more demanding circuit, his unchanged rating of 106 could look very generous. 112

    Go Bob Go finished second at Lingfield off 59 on his penultimate outing on the flat in a race which looks stronger in hindsight. Leaving Eve Johnson Houghton for 10,000 guineas, Go Bob Go joined a yard which is not as well stocked as others and this was reflected in his pre race drift from 33/1 to 100/1. He was keen early, never emerged from mid division and was ultimately beaten by just over twenty-two lengths. Notwithstanding, he jumped reasonably well as he was only slightly untidy over a couple of early jumps and slow to get away from three out. Go Bob Go is unlikely to challenge the principles should their rivalries be renewed. Nevertheless, there is no reason why he can not match and surpass his flat performances. 97

    Kiss My Face was second on each of his bumper outings and was well supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Catterick. However, despite his talented trainer and sire, his inexperience resulted in some very untidy jumps and this performance marked a further regression. Getting in close to the first two, he was long and skewed over the third and would jump to his left, sometimes wildly, at each flight in the back straight. He was slow and untidy over his remaining jumps and was never able to leave the rear of the field. Curiously, his jumping to the left only occurred at the hurdles along the back and while it is possible that he will be helped by going left handed, this could have been a trait specific to Musselburgh. The more pressing concern is his maturity and until this is resolved, Kiss My Face does not inspire much confidence at this juncture. 90

    Ajax Tavern cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale following a seven race flat career with Richard Hannon which resulted in a win, two places, and a rating of 78. Though he never ran beyond a mile and is from a family of sprinters, he was backed from 18/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off. However, his jumping was substandard throughout with a litany of errors including skewing at the first, being big and untidy at the second, trailing his hind legs through the fourth and steadying into the fifth. His round was completed with tired jumps and he finished tailed off. Early keenness exacerbated the stamina concerns and it is difficult to envisage him replicating his flat ability over hurdles. 64

    Gypsy Traveller is a stablemate of Go Bob Go, but his flat exploits were moderate and he was withdrawn for unruly behaviour as often as he actually raced. He was completely unfancied here and played up at the start. After jumping very moderately in the rear throughout, he finished tailed off. 31

    Poetica 2/1/2021 Cork 2m Maiden Hurdle
    Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen. 34

    SANDOWN 2nd January
    Preview review
    The award of strong prospects to Warranty was partially an attempt to be clever, partially a consideration of the below average performances of odds-on favourites in juvenile hurdles at Sandown and the suitability of the race for Warranty. Nevertheless, Warranty traded at 2.12 in-running having opened at 14/1, and the odds-on favourite went traded at 5.1 during the race so the ambition was not entirely misplaced. While the strong prospect was surpassed by the reasonable ones in the correct order, the three finished clear of the other pair whose chances were moderate/negligible.

    Race review
    This contest is traditionally one of the lesser juvenile hurdles held at Sandown, and while a few came carrying some potential, it was not an especially compelling affair. Nevertheless, the winner confirmed his debut promise and the runner-up ran well in unsuitable conditions. The winning time was over ten seconds slower than in the Tolworth, and over six slower than the concluding handicap. However, all this really informs is that the early pace was very moderate as the first half of the race was ran at a comparative crawl. Though the first three were guilty of some untidy jumps, the overall standard of hurdling was perfectly acceptable and the first two especially look better than average.

    Hudson de Grugy is notably related to the yard's Sire de Grugy, but has plenty of other winners closer on the damline. After winning an AQPS bumper on the last of his four runs in France, he belied a pre-race drift to finish a creditable second on his jumps bow at this venue last month. Though novicey at several hurdles, he was better when given instruction from the rider and it was a similar case here. Getting in close to the third and fifth, he was much better when ridden into the final three flights even if he pecked slightly on landing at the last. Leading from the start at a steady tempo, he was very briefly headed approaching the penultimate flight. However, after taking the time to organise himself, he stayed on strongly up the hill and had the best part of three lengths in hand passing the post. His bare achievements to this point amount to not much above average. Nevertheless, as he still has plenty to learn about racing, it can be assumed that he can progress further and develop into a nice type in the long term. 115

    Hystery Bere ran with credit on his first three completed starts in France before winning at Le Lion-d'Angers back in July. Making his British debut in a first time tongue tie following a break of 157 days, he was slightly untidy over the first couple of flights and got in close to the sixth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was neat more often than not and was slightly baulked on landing after the winner crossed his path. Though he was beaten entirely on merit, this was still a promising introduction and he may be seen in an even better light on a sounder surface. 118

    Warranty won a maiden handicap at Beverly on his final flat start which has worked out well, and was supported in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. However, a series of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffled back through the field and he was never able to reach a challenging position. His attempt at redemption was curtailed at Kempton as he was carried out after just two jumps, but he jumped the first hurdle well and the race conditions here appeared to look suitable. The slow early gallop compromised his jumping, but it was never disastrous and it improve as the tempo increased. Racing wide and tracking the leaders, he moved menacingly turning into the straight and traded close to evens before finding himself outpaced by the front pair. Nevertheless, he finished within eight lengths of the winner and eighteen lengths clear of the others and the performance marks a new career best in either discipline. 107

    Cloud Thunder was a fair maiden on the flat, but was pitched in at the deep end on his hurdles bow at Doncaster where he failed to convince in his attitude or aptitude. He ran out at the paddock bend at Kempton over the festive period, but went from 16/1 to 11/2 in the market to redeem himself here. However, while he settled quite quickly and passed the paddock bend without any fuss, his jumping still left plenty to be desired as he was steady and overly cautious over the first three, got in close to the next two, and was steady and slow over the penultimate flight. Slightly detached for most of the contest, he managed to run into fourth up the straight, but never threatened to look competitive. Although this is his best hurdles performance to date, it still leaves him way short of his flat ability and there is work to be done before he can be competitive. 89

    Letter At Dawn finished down the field on his sole flat outing at the Curragh in early November, and received only mild support in the morning to fare better on his hurdles bow. Held up in touch, he gave his hurdles plenty of air and was untidy in the closing stages where he faded tamely. There is plenty of time for him to develop, although the foundation is quite low at this juncture. 74

    State Crown 3/1/2021 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle (116)
    State Crown finished runner-up over hurdles twice from as many starts since joining Evan Williams, and was fairly treated in the weights ahead of his handicap debut. The ground was likely softer than ideal and he drifted from 11/8 in the morning, to 11/4 at flagfall. His jumping had given no cause for trepidation on his previous outings, but he was steady and close to the second, close again at the third, and made a blunder at the sixth. Notwithstanding, he was better at those where he was ridden into the approach. Fairly keen in the early stages and racing prominently throughout, he went into the lead midway through the back straight. However, he was headed on the turn for home and would weaken from thereon in to finish a nine length third of six finishers. He was far from disgraced on this outing, and his unchanged mark is still workable on his best form. Nevertheless, he will likely appreciate a return to better ground. 109

    Crassus 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (119)
    Crassus has performed very creditably during his hurdling career to date, and came into this contest on a very fair handicap mark. However, his chances were heavily compromised by what can be fairly described as unsuitable. While Crassus habitually jumps and travels well, he was restrained in the early stages to an inappropriate degree. A point illustrated by the first eight being covered by just over seven lengths, and the winning time being the slowest jumps race on the card by seconds per furlong against the standard. The rider also had a tendency to pull on the approach which resulted in Crassus getting too close to the third, and losing momentum at the last where he second guessed himself and hopped through the flight before landing awkwardly. By contrast, his being ridden into the last at Limerick was rewarded with a fine leap which put the seal on the race. Furthermore, Crassus had shown an aversion to the whip and though he lengthened nicely and established a lead between the final two prior to the last flight error, his ride on the run-in consisted of being pulled with one hand and whipped with the other which caused his head to go up and his stride to shorten. This is in no way a commentary on the rider's overall ability as a horseperson and certainly not a denigration of the human being in the saddle. However, assuming the winning plot horse did not have several additional lengths to spare, this riding performance very likely made the difference between victory and defeat. A rise of two pounds is not ideal for Crassus, but his best form is still superior to the tune of a few pounds so it is hoped that this experience has not eroded any of that edge. 119

    Rock Chica 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (108)
    Rock Chica enjoyed the conditions when winning her second hurdles outing at Tipperary, and was outclassed in better company on her next two starts. The ground will have suited here, but her mark was fairly harsh based on her achievements. Usually a reasonable jumper, apart from getting close to the first and low at the last, she put in another fair round. Her mark remains unchanged however which will keep life difficult unless she either improves or finds a weak enough contest. 102

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    Chepstow's Finale card looks quite likely to go ahead so the preview for that race will likely be up at some point today. If the meeting is abandoned then at least I will have some templates prepared for when the horses next appear. For now, the Kempton preview.

    Kempton hosts its third juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow, and while it is routinely above average in the grand scheme, it has generally not been amongst the strongest held at the Sunbury venue in recent years. Apart from when the Lanzarote was held at Carlisle in 2006, and frozen off in 2009, this juvenile has been a fixture on the card since 2002. Spectroscope, fourth in the 2003 renewal, would win that season's Triumph while the following year, Cherub took this contest ahead of landing the Grade One at Punchestown. L'Unique won this and the Anniversary in 2013, but the most prominent recent participant would be Redicean who was successful in both this and the Adonis in 2018. The latest edition could be a maiden if Bannister runs in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle, but it would still feature some interesting types including Kentucky Hardboot and Tinnahalla who renew their rivalry from Newbury, and three pricey flat recruits in More Than A Prince, Sage Advice and Table Mountain. Though a fair and flat right-handed circuit not stiff in nature, Kempton's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.19 mean, are in the lowest third of racecourses which emphasises its class demands. The clear round rate of 96.74% is fairer than average and the 97.78% rate for hurdling debutants makes it one of the most straightforward in the country. The low median SP and above average record of odd-on favourites also testify to the venue's reliable nature. The going is currently riding as soft, good to soft in places, and there is no rain forecast in the meantime.

    Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 125
    Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
    Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings the strongest hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.

    Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j3-0-3 (118) 110 116
    Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
    While Kentucky Hardboot won on his seasonal reappearance back in June, this came in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap off 55 and his five subsequent outings saw him fail to match that effort on three occasions, and refuse to enter the stalls on the other two. Nevertheless, he was backed from 28/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off ahead of his hurdling debut at this course and distance in October and while assisted by the winner's waywardness, he still finished within half a length and was upwards of fifteen lengths clear of two subsequent winners. He failed to match that effort next time against older horses at Huntingdon, but posted a new career best at Newbury last month when splitting useful recruits Goodbye Stranger and Leylak. There he hurdled quite well, if somewhat cautious, and it emerged afterwards that he lost his near-fore shoe which demonstrates his courage and perhaps explains his jumping and drift to the right on the run-in. Kentucky Hardboot should appreciate the return to Kempton and as the ground also looks suitable, his prospects are not readily dismissed.

    More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
    Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
    Olly Murphy has yet to send a juvenile hurdler to Kempton, but is set to saddle two tomorrow. More Than A Prince had five runs as a two-year-old which culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, he has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.

    Ray's The One bg Gary Moore f6-0-3 (68) 72
    Mount Nelson (Bob Back){5-e}(1.50) 0.5 Barwick 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2016
    Thrice placed in six outings on the flat, Ray's The One's two seconds in July came behind Sly Minx in a twelve furlong Catterick maiden, and Tamaris in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap off 70. Incidentally, each of those horses has since ran in juvenile hurdles, with the latter twice finishing third in ordinary company for Gary Moore. Horses formerly trained by Michael Bell have a healthy 31.58% winners to runners rate in the sphere, although none of the eleven who fetched less than 10,000 guineas at auction were able to win or post an RPR exceeding 108 during their initial hurdling campaigns. Ray's The One joined Gary Moore for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and is now in the hands of a trainer with a solid record in the division who has had three winners from six similarly priced horses. However, his record with juvenile hurdlers at Kempton reads as just one win from thirty-six since 2008/09. Sire Mount Nelson has had two winning juveniles from sixteen, which is a below average record, but the dam produced Barwick (Beat Hollow) to win a Worcester maiden, and the decent Father Time appears at 3/1 on the damline. Though he is an habitual front-runner who is likely to stay the trip, Ray's The One has been prone to hanging left which will not help him around Kempton.

    Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85
    Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
    Joseph G Murphy has supplied five horses to the division since 2008/09, the most recent being the top class Mr Adjudicator. The progressive Sage Advice is set to be the latest recruit, with his six race flat career culminating with success in a seventeen runner Cork Maiden, and a third in a Tipperary handicap off 80 in October. Though drenched in sweat and running very green, he was able to run down the long time leader at Cork, with the next three being subsequent winners. Green and sweaty once again at Tipperary, he was not as effective in the finish, but still kept on into third without threatening the leaders. Fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joins a Dr Richard Newland yard with the strongest winners to runners ratio in this field. The yard has had a winner this term in Orchestral Rain, although the even more expensive Indigo Lake could only manage a fourth placed finish on his hurdles debut at Catterick, and the stable's juveniles invariably improve with the benefit of experience. Make Believe's first crop of juveniles can already count a winner and a couple of placed horses, and the damline includes maiden hurdle winner Lockalsh (2/1) and the useful Father Sky (3/1). Sage Advice has a largely positive profile for a new recruit, although his temperament and the fact that he had a wind operation shortly after moving home are not ideal.

    Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens j1-0-0 (-) 66 65
    Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
    Though a son of Australia and relative of several capable hurdlers, Son Of Oz fetched only 3,000 guineas as a yearling and was unfancied ahead of his racecourse debut in a Warwick juvenile last month. Always in the rear, his slow and cautious jumping evolved into slow and untidy jumping, and he finished the race last of nine. Trainer Robert Stephens saddled Beltor to win the Adonis Hurdle here in 2015, but Son Of Oz lacks any of the aforementioned's credentials.

    Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 103 107
    Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
    While Tinnahalla failed to win in seven starts on the flat for Jamie Osborne, his efforts in three novices stakes at Lingfield, Ripon and Nottingham justified his rating of 75. The pedigree is a very interesting one for a recruit to the division as along with Starspangledbanner showing himself to be competent in this regard, Tinnahalla is a half-brother to Thomas Hobson and Drifter as well as being out of a just over half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. There were concerns over his inability to settle and while he was not unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury, those concerns did manifest in the contest. Though he was not fighting for his head, he did pull himself into a clear lead passing the stands. His jumping also suffered as he wandered into several of his flights while also getting in close on numerous occasions. He would maintain this lead until the approach to the penultimate flight and while he was readily outpaced by the front three, he was able to preserve an advantage of three lengths over the remainder of the field. It was not a disheartening introduction by any stretch of the imagination and he remains an interesting recruit to the division. Nevertheless, a demonstration of better jumping and settling is required before he inspires significant confidence.

    Epsom Dreamer bf Michael Attwater f2-0-0 (-) 36
    Raven's Pass (Dalakhani){9-c}(1.00) 3/1 Halla San 2nd Handicap Hurdle (125), Ayr 2009
    Beaten by sixty-seven lengths on his racecourse debut at Lingfield in June, Epsom Dreamer bettered that performance with a near twenty length seventh of eight at Kempton in late November. Ravens Pass has a moderate winners to runners rate of 16%, but his improvement rate of 61.11% is more encouraging and fair handicapper Halla San appears at 3/1 on the damline. However, being out of a half-sister to Cracksman, better will have been expected on the flat and the trainer has yet to have a winner in this discipline from four runners.

    Table Mountain bf Tom Symonds f7-1-1 (91) 93
    Phoenix Reach (Mount Nelson){22-c}(1.00) 2/1 Ranch Hand 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2020
    Though he is not one to produce champions, Phoenix Reach is one of the unheralded stallions of recent times. His winners to runners rate of 50% is surpassed only by Poliglote and Soldier Or Fortune for sires with twelve or more juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09. His progeny typically win their races during the summer months which is understandable given that the average official flat rating of such horses is just 56. Table Mountain is unique in this regard as her mark of 91 is twenty-three pounds higher than any other of Phoenix Reach's offspring. Her damline is also intriguing as along with winning novice Ranch Hand, Scorned (3/1), Passing Glance (3/1) and Desert Quest (4/2) are other notable relatives. Running with promise on the second of her first three flat outings, she improved considerably for the step up to two miles when second to Alphabetical at Ascot, with the pair twelve lengths clear of a subsequent triple winner. Travelling well into the race, she took the lead at the distance, but was worn down late on by the winner who was completing a four-timer. She flashed her tail repeatedly up the straight and drifted left close to the finish, although these movements all corresponded to the impact of the whip. Although five pounds out of the handicap, she very comfortably broke her maiden over the same course and distance a fortnight later, travelling comfortably into the race and being pushed out hands and heels to win by nearly five lengths She ran flat when stepped up in grade for the March Stakes at Goodwood, but was beaten by just over ten lengths in a listed race at Ascot where her weakening was exacerbated when the whip was drawn. She left Andrew Balding for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Tom Symonds yard with a solid rate of four winners from seventeen in this discipline including stable star Song For Someone. However, three of these winners had gained hurdling experience in France and the other was a French flat recruit who won at the end of April. None of his nine flat recruits trained in Britain has won in the division from thirty-two attempts. Table Mountain is a tremendously curious and intriguing recruit and she was well spoken of in a recent stable tour. However, while it is plausible that she can handle the forecast ground effectively, there are concerns regarding her yard's record with flat recruits and the uncertainty as to how she might be ridden should she find herself under pressure.

    Strong prospects
    1. Kentucky Hardboot
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Table Mountain
    3. Bannister
    Feasible prospects
    4. Tinnahalla
    5. Sage Advice
    Moderate prospects
    6. More Than A Prince
    7. Ray's The One
    Negligible prospects
    8. Son Of Oz
    9. Epsom Dreamer

  32. #260
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    With Chepstow's card looking likely to be given the go ahead, the juvenile division's first Grade 1 of the season is finally upon us. Since 2005, the Finale Hurdle has produced two Triumph Hurdle winners in Defi du Seuil and Countrywide Flame, four runners-up in Kentucky Hyden, Walkon, Franchoek and Fair Along, and last season's winner Allmankind would place third at the festival later in the campaign. We Have A Dream won Aintree's Grade One in 2018, and other stars to emerge during this time period include Bristol de Mai, Reve de Sivola and Twist Magic. Earlier editions have been graced by the likes of Bilboa, Bradbury Star, Crystal Spirit, Jair du Cochet, Kadastrof, Mysilv, Mister Banjo, Oh So Risky and Royal Derbi. With the exception of Jair du Cochet who was something very special, it will have been speculative at the time to imagine that most of the aforementioned would achieve the heights that they did. Nevertheless, while this season's edition looks a good quality affair, it does appear to be lacking somewhat. The best British form on offer comes from Adagio who was readily put in his place by Duffle Coat at Cheltenham, and the Irish crop looks decidedly stronger at this juncture. Nevertheless, with the exception of Monmiral and possibly the undefeated pair of Heross du Seuil and Good Ball who each ran recently, this is about as strong a field that could have been assembled at this stage of the season. With the Welsh National being one of the most gruelling races on the calendar, it is no surprise that Chepstow's average winning DIs for juveniles of 0.83 median, 1.13 mean, are among the lowest in the country. With the winners of this race taken in isolation, those figures drop to 0.80 and 0.93 which makes the race quite exceptional. The going is currently forecast to be heavy and with freezing temperatures expected overnight, the moisture in the ground will not be evaporating. The clear round rate of 96.28% is broadly average, and the high odds-on strike rate and low median SP make it a reliable enough racecourse.

    Triumph Hurdle
    Nassalam 14/1
    Adagio 20/1
    Houx Gris 25/1
    Elham Valley 50/1

    Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j3-2-1 (136) 122 127
    Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/adagio-1
    Horses bought out of French flat Claimers have a fair winners to runners ratio of 21.43%, although when accounting for those costing upwards of €21,000, that rate increases to 50% with six of the twelve since 2008/09 finding success. That record has been bolstered this season due to the wins of Fergal O'Brien's Volkovka, and David Pipe's Adagio. Following two outings as a two-year-old, his first run for the Pavel Vovcenko stable saw him run out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. The form of that race has worked out fairly moderately, but such was his superiority, a rating in the early-mid eighties would be appropriate.Though he was publicly offered for sale after joining David Pipe for €25,555, he ended up with high profile owners of the yard and the relative of recently lost Labaik was a comfortable debutant winner at Warwick in early November. The form of that race is much of a muchness, but Adagio overcame some sloppy jumping to run out a convincing seven and a half length winner on ground that was probably firm enough. He was out eight days later in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham where he was a steady third in the market. Settling in midfield, he still lacked fluency on numerous occasions and though he moved into the lead turning for home, he would be passed at the furlong marker and was unable to quicken from there. Finishing five lengths behind Duffle Coat was an improved performance, and he continued that momentum on his return to the venue a month later. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, he put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. His official rating of 136 is behind only Nassalam whose British form does not yet have the same substance. The ground tomorrow will be the heaviest he has encountered outside of France, but while his pedigree is not inundated with plodders, it is stout enough to suggest he can handle the conditions. Especially given that his Clairefontaine win came on heavy ground. David Pipe has not had a runner in this race since outsider Sinndar's Man in 2014, but Adagio is one of his strongest candidates he has had in a while and with the yard in a good spell of form, Adagio's prospects are very tangible.

    Bannister bg Tom George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 124
    Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
    Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings decent hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.

    Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
    Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
    A dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, Elham Valley left Kingsclere after winning a seller at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. Though he did not attract any bids afterwards, he still changed ownership and would run twice run for John Gallagher, finishing well held in a pair of soft ground handicaps off 78 and 75. Following a date with a pair of scissors, he joined a Fergal O'Brien yard which has enjoyed a fine season with its juveniles, including winners Naizagai and Volkovka. Though his hurdles debut came in a Sandown contest featuring the highly touted but disappointing Paros, was the subject of sustained support throughout the day, moving from 14/1 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. It was not a bad performance and he should be able to improve with tidier jumping. Furthermore, runner-up Hudson de Grugy paid the form a compliment when winning at the venue last week. However, this was his tenth run under rules which gives him less scope than most of his rivals.

    Houx Gris grg Paul Nicholls b2-1-1 h2-1-1 (-) 110 ?
    Gris de Gris (Network){u}(0.33) 3/1 Franco 3rd Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (G3), Auteuil 1999
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/houx-gris
    The bulk of Paul Nicholls' most succesful imports are typically acquired through private transactions, although he will still get horses who pass through the Arqana ring. The most pricey of these was 2016 Adonis Hurdle winner Zubayr at €380,000, while the useful Ptit Zig cost €100,000, and the exciting Sanctuaire was a relative snip at €80,000. Some did prove to be expensive however as Monsiuer Co (€155,000) won just the first of his six races for the yard, Marc Aurele (€180,000) left the yard with a rating of 116, and Al Amaan (€140,000) managed only a third in a Plumpton maiden. Costing €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn sale, Houx Gris carries hefty expectations. Nevertheless, his four runs for Sylvain Dehez are not without potential. After winning on his racecourse bow in a Cluny AQPS bumper in late June, he was denied by a length and a quarter at Vichy on the first of August while conceding eight kilos. His jumps debut came in an AQPS contest for hurdling debutants where he started at 9/1. Very keen early on, he was bustled on numerous occasions and made errors over the majority of the hurdles. He had settled behind the leaders but lost his position along the back straight, and while he eventually finished third, he was twenty-one lengths behind the winner. A direct form line leaves him behind Oliver Greenall's Herbiers, who was second at Musselburgh last week, but he was successful next time at the same venue in an ordinary conditions event. Though he made a few untidy jumps, it was a much better round than on his debut and after progressing from midfield, he moved into the lead approaching the last from where he battled well despite a high head carriage. The runner-up Homme Public has since joined Oliver Greenall, while the horse who was nearly nine lengths back in fourth has subsequently improved to finish third in a listed race ahead of winning a Pau steeplechase by seven lengths. A precise measure of Houx Gris' accomplishments is difficult to reach given that most of the opposition are unexposed and lightly raced. Nevertheless, the form likely exceeds the RPR of 116 by a good ten pounds. Paul Nicholls has won this twice from seventeen runners, although those two wins came from his last three charges in the contest with Dolos' third splitting the wins of Adrien Du Pont and Quel Destin. He has also introduced four French hurdles recruits in this contest, three of whom, namely Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais, finished second. Gris de Gris has one winner from five in the division, but his record in France is much stronger and along with being a full-brother to a winning French juvenile, the third dam produced four winning jumpers in Declic, Impact, Azure and most notably, the graded class Franco. Houx Gris is something of an unknown quantity, but he ticks most boxes and is the representative of a strong trainer.

    Mr Shady grg J S Moore f18-1-5 (63) 72 j2-0-1 (117) 111 117
    Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
    A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer's juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby. Keen in the early stages, he was in the front line throughout the race and after going through the top of the first, he hurdled very well before flattening the first in the straight. He made a blunder at the penultimate flight and was not especially tidy at the last either, but he only lost the lead at the half-furlong marker and still kept on to the line. Despite his vast racing experience, this performance marked a new career best for Mr Shady due to his good hurdling during the bulk of the race. Though he is a tough and consistent sort, he has not shown enough ability to be seriously competitive in this type of contest. Furthermore, Stan Moore's four runners in this contest have failed to reach a better position than Foleys Quest's fifth of six in 1997.

    Nassalam chg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (140) 140 126
    Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam
    The shortest priced British trained horse in the Triumph Hurdle markets, Nassalam found himself in that position by virtue of two demolition jobs at Fontwell in November and December. To suggest that he beat trees on those two outings does a disservice to the speed of some species as the Moluccan albizia has been documented reaching nearly eleven meters in just over a year. Perhaps the most reliable measure of his ability came on his French debut in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil in December. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132, although that is a falling mark. Fourth placed Mistersister, who was less than two lengths behind, joined Charlie Mann after winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer, but was pulled up on his British debut in the Summit Hurdle. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut at Fontwell. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only real measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a relatively good time, and followed up in an even weaker contest last month. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his further contraction in the Triumph markets was not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. Gary Moore has yet to win this contest in ten attempts, with Sussex Ranger coming closest when second in 2018. Nevertheless, the yard has been among the winners recently and Nassalam is very much fits the "could be anything" trope. His overall form profile lacks discernible substance, but it will be exciting to see what he can produce in this company.

    Pyramid Place bg Milton Harris f4-0-0 (69) 66 j2-1-1 (104) 97 107
    Authorized (Zafonic){20-a}(0.81) 0.5 Jukebox Blues 9th Novices' Hurdle, Kelso 2020
    Pyramid Place did not reach the frame in four starts for John Gosden during the winter, but he was a consistent animal who ran to a fair level and subsequently sold for 27,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Horses who leave the Gosden yard rarely do well in juvenile hurdles, but with seven months to physically develop, he made a fine start in his new vocation at Lingfield. Keen early and held up in the rear, he had a tendency to jump to his left and like the winner, was none too fluent in the straight. He made slow and steady headway along the back and got to within five lengths of the winner at the last. He did not get away from it quickly and took time to find his stride on the run-in. Ultimately, he only failed by a short head, but given his freshness and lack of fitness or experience, he was entitled to improve and he made good on his promise when winning at Bangor in November. While he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage. Tucked in behind the leaders in a slowly run contest, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot to take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear advantage by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win last time, and from a form perspective, this effort leaves him with a lot to find here. Milton Harris saddled Mondul to finish second in the 2003 renewal of this contest, but his only other runner was well beaten at 100/1 in 2011.

    Yggdrasil bg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 107 109
    Kapgarde (Le Balafre){4-m}(1.67) 0.5 Siruh du Lac 1st Mildmay of Fleet (G3,141), Cheltenham 2019
    Named after the home of Ratatoskr, Norse Mythology's only interesting character, Yggdrasil made his racecourse debut at Sandown early last month. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third. A Kapgarde half-brother to Siruh du Lac, Acta Est Fabula and Txamanxoia, out of a dual chase winner and closely related to 1995 Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil winner Matchou, Yggdrasil is bred to be a viable prospect in both the short and long term. He was one of two entries for the Williamses in the original iteration of this contest, with stablemate Honneur d'Ajonc (33/1, generally 25/1 for the Triumph) coming close to winning the alternative engagement when falling at the last at Kempton. Nick Williams has won this race twice from eight runners, with Me Voici winning in 2009, and Le Rocher scoring in 2013. He has also sent talented horses to run into third including Coo Star Sivola, and Reve de Sivola. Yggdrasil will still need to find improvement from his debut outing, but he ran with plenty of promise and has considerable scope for a yard that should not be underestimated in this contest.

    Strong prospects
    1. Yggdrasil
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Adagio
    3. Nassalam
    4. Houx Gris
    Feasible prospects
    5. Bannister
    Moderate prospects
    6. Elham Valley
    Negligible prospects
    7. Mr Shady
    8. Pyramid Place

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