Fully appreciated. If it properly gets into the ground then that won't do Charlie Bassett, Dark Voyager or Flying Scotsman any favours and don't think Loved Out will appreciate it either. Ilmig and French Aseel should definitely welcome the rain. Famous last words and all that... Not positive where I am with Coltor on the matter. I am happy with Free Eagle's influence and Coltor went through the soft well enough at Killarney, but I am not thrilled with Red Ransom's possible influence as a few of his (thinking mostly of Contraband) bounced off the ground. Still, Zaidpour was very good in the mud, though I suspect Kahyasi's influence helped no small amount. Would probably fall on the side of it being alright for Coltor while keeping within arm's reach of the fence!
The Finale Hurdle is looking likelier than not to get washed off which will be a shame, but hopefully it can be rescheduled for Tolworth Hurdle day, as is tradition.
Though a regular fixture at Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick/Castleford meeting, tomorrow's juvenile hurdle is generally no better than the average contest at the venue and has little bearing on the better races in the Spring. Albert's Back achieved the best seasonal RPR for a winner when beating Turning Gold and Cornerstone Lad in 2017, and there is a chance for one or two useful prospects to emerge from this assembly. Donald McCain's Irish recruit, Danger Money, will be the highest rated flat horse to race in Britain this season and French winner Hacker des Places is likely better than he appeared on his Wincanton showing. Wetherby's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.21 mean, put it in the bottom quarter of tracks in the UK and Ireland and those figures are 0.31 lower than that of the average runner. The clear round and completion rates are also lower than average and with the ground already soft with heavy showers forecast overnight, a stern stamina test looks likely.
Hacker Des Places bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (132) 117 108
Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hacker-des-places
Paul Nicholls has won the Wensleydale three times from five attempts since 2008/09, and those have been the only instances of him sending a juvenile hurdler to Wetherby during that time period. While Mr Glass, who runs in the concluding bumper, will likely appreciate the company, Hacker des Places has his own business to attend in Yorkshire. Third behind Paros and Jeu de Paume on his debut at Dieppe in May, Hacker des Places won at the second time of asking at Dax the following month. While Jeu de Paume is firmly established as one of the better juveniles in France, Paros was disappointing on his UK debut at Sandown. Though the runner-up at Dax was a dual winner in minor company, the form of that race has not worked out particularly well. Hacker des Places had also been green on his first two starts in France, and his jumping, while occasionally swift, included several large leaps. He did not settle on his hurdling debut at Wincanton in October and his round was devoid of the swift jumping he had exercised in France prior to his being readily outpaced by his stablemate. Nevertheless, he was still upwards of seventeen lengths ahead of the remainder who have subsequently shown improved form. Though the yard's imported hurdlers have a very good 32.89% strike rate first time, their second time rate is even higher at 36.67% and of the five imported French Hurdlers who were beaten at odds-on first time, three subsequently won including Qualando and Saphir du Rheu. With the experience under his girth and the benefit of a break extended by a pair of withdrawals, Hacker des Places should be able to leave his Wincanton performance behind and will appreciate the return to testing ground.
Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j4-1-1 (117) 113 115
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a £12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days at Catterick twelve days ago, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. The going was officially soft but the dry weather throughout the day likely made conditions less testing than anticipated and Kings Creek probably won't want much more give in the ground. Furthermore, third placed En Couleur re-opposes with a seven pound pull and while Kings Creek is an honest performer, this is a more difficult task.
Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73
Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
Beginning his career in late August, Caldwell finished third on his first two outings in maidens at Bellewstown and Fairyhouse before finishing midfield at the Curragh on his final start for Dermot Weld. His head carriage has been quite appalling but there is little to qubble about regarding his form as he split subsequent hurdles winners Druid's Altar and Autumn Evening on his debut and finished ahead of Fairyhouse winner Peckham Springs on his second start. Furthermore, with those races coming over ten and twelve furlongs through soft and heavy ground, he should have no trouble handling tomorrow's conditions. Dermot Weld supplies a fair number of winning juveniles but his improvement and strike rates are below average and the very same can be said of Michael Scudamore as a trainer. Caldwell made the switch between the yards for the sum of 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and on breeding at least, he has every reason to do just as well in his new vocation. Dansili rarely gets high class juveniles but his winners to runners rate of 36.11% is very healthy and Caldwell is a full brother to a pair of winning hurdlers in Carntop and Quebec. All three of the yard's juveniles to visit Wetherby have been placed including Dinsdale who was runner-up in this contest in 2016. Caldwell has an appealing profile and a good showing would not come as a surprise, although enthusiasm is tempered by his being an entire with a conspicuous head carriage.
Danger Money chg Donald McCain f7-1-0 (92) 92
Nayef (Generous){16-b}(1.18) 0.5 Doyly Carte 2nd Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
Andrew Oliver has been the source of numerous talented juveniles over the years including Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Lettre De Cachet. Danger Money fetched 42,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and his rating of 92 is the highest brought to the division in Britain this season. Making his racecourse debut in late June, he broke his duck at the third time of asking at Tipperary, hanging on ahead of useful novice hurdler Dewcup. Since then, Danger Money has been participating in valuable contests and was not disgraced in either the Vinnie Roe Stakes or Yeats Stakes. Following a six week break, he finished down the field in the Irish Cesarewitch and was well beaten in first time cheekpieces when last seen at Leopardstown. A half-brother to Doyly Carte, he is closely related to the decent hurdler Melodic Rendezvous (2/2) while Model Man (4/2) and Rasko (4/3) also appear on the damline. Sire Nayef does get winners in the sphere, but his overall record is a little below average. Donald McCain is one of the stronger trainers in the division and his first time out strike rate with flat recruits is a very respectable 17.1%. However, only one of his last twenty juveniles at Wetherby have been winners and while there are more ticks than crosses in the overall profile, there is a suspicion that Danger Money may have gone sour recently.
El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57
Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
Since 2008/09, four of Brian Ellison's twenty-one juvenile hurdlers at Wetherby have been winners including Seamour who took this contest in 2014. The master of Spring Cottage Stables saddles two runners here, the first being flat maiden El Jefe. Rated 53 after seven runs on the level, he was twice able to reach the frame including when last seen when runner-up in a soft ground, ten-furlong Redcar handicap in early October. His first run since wind surgery, he made good headway to run into second during the straight but looked very suspect when asked to go after the leader. The first and second each won next time, but El Jefe would still be the lowest rated horse in this line up. Born To Sea has done well in the division thus far with a 26.09% winners to runners rate, and he is out of a full-sister to winning juvenile hurdler Mountain. However, El Jefe still has moderate form and a questionable attitude to overcome.
En Couleur bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (60) 68 j2-0-1 (108) 104 108
Archipenko (With Approval){16}(0.90) 2/1 Circus Maximus 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2001
En Couleur showed some promise on his flat debut back in March but achieved little in two subsequent outings in October and started at 125/1 ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. Nevertheless he outran those odds to finish just over eleven lengths fourth to First Impression and jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth. Starting at a twenty-fifth of the price at Catterick and making headway early on from a rear position, he also jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth and led the pursuit of the winner up the straight. A slightly untidy jump at the last compromised his chances of finishing second but he was still a good seven lengths clear of the remainder. Michael Easterby has three wins from sixteen at the venue including Albert's Back who won this race in 2017. An unexposed horse who should get the trip in these conditions, he comes into this contest with reasonable prospects.
Fahad bg Danny Brooke f5-0-1 (72) 78 j2-0-0 (-) 84 90
Farhh (Nayef){1-k}(2.50) 3/3 Lisheen Castle 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Wetherby 2019
Initially rated 77 on the flat for Roger Varian, Fahad had begun to show signs of decline before switching to his new yard for 14,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. His stable/hurdles debut came Catterick in late November where he jumped poorly in the rear before passing beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fifth. Returning to the same venue a month later, he jumped moderately better in the rear but would not make any such progress and was be beaten twice the margin.
Flight Command brg Samuel Drinkwater f5-1-0 61 (67)
War Command (Pivotal){9-c}(2.14) 3/1 Sir Pitt 5th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2011
Set to be Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler after 231 National Hunt runners, Flight Command won his final start in Ireland for Michael O'Callaghan before changing hands at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale for 5,000 guineas. This victory came in a mile handicap at Gowran Park off 53 with the fifth and ninth winning next time out. Four of his former trainer's eight ex-inmates have been winners in the division including Veneer Of Charm, Act Of Valour and Alexei Vronsky, although these were all rated higher than Flight Command. War Command has had one winning juvenile from eight and the granddam is a sibling of Triumph fifth Sir Pitt and the useful jumper Farringdon. Flight Command would not be the worst recruit to the division, but may find greater success in more moderate company.
Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66
Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/herbiers
After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning next time at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths where he had Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle entry Houx Gris back in third. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of 100,000. However, whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Incidentally, Mathieu Brasme's other import into the division was the 105,000 Sainte Doctor who was unplaced in four outings last season for Neil Mulholland and JP McManus. Sire Waldpark, the 2011 German Derby winner, has yet to have any juveniles winners either side of the channel from his first two crops, but there are numerous winning jumpers on the damline. Oliver Greenall gets his fair share of winners in the division and Gold Desert has done well for him this season. Furthermore, he has been in good form recently and enjoyed a winner on the first day of this meeting. However, his juveniles typically improve for the run and while Herbiers could still be anything, he does have to account for his Huntingdon showing.
Sir Charles Punch bg Tim Easterby f12-0-2 (68) 79 j2-0-0 (-) 98 105
Sir Percy (Archipenko){1-k}(0.33) 3/1 Cava Bien 126 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (104), Newbury 2006
Sir Charles Punch had a deteriorating flat mark but this was less due to a loss of ability and more about his capacity to fulfil same as he had a habit of working himself up. He settled better on his hurdles debut in a solid looking race at Newcastle but he was impeded by hesitant jumping which once again prompted his demise at Catterick last time out. Reticence cost him ground at several hurdles and he was unable to make inroads in the straight. While he has not been completely disgraced thus far over hurdles, and his trainer has had two places from five in this contest, he needs to be more assured over his hurdles if is to be competitive.
Spantik bg Roger Fell f15-2-1 (64) 76
Canford Cliffs (Galileo){4-f}(0.74) 3/1 Wily Fox 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Warwick 2014
Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. Canford Cliffs gets his fair share of winners in the division and his progeny have an improvement rate of 60% between codes while the third dam produced a pair of fair hurdlers. Roger Fell rarely runs horses over hurdles and while Spantik has reasonable form, his tendency to pull despite his experience would be a concern.
Strong prospects
1. Hacker Des Places
Reasonable prospects
2. Caldwell
3. En Couleur
4. Kings Creek
Feasible prospects
5. Herbiers
6. Danger Money
Moderate prospects
7. Sir Charles Punch
8. Flight Command
9. El Jefe
10. Spantik
Negligible prospects
11. Fahad