High praise indeed.Originally Posted by barjon
High praise indeed.
So I've managed to do a preview for tomorrow's race at Fontwell because it looks a nice little contest. However, for the foreseeable future, my contributions will likely be sporadic in nature. As much as I dread for the project to get too far away from me, personal circumstances are not entirely conducive to the dedication I would like to give to this thread. Hopefully when my situation stabilises, so too will my contributions. But in the meantime, I will only post what I can, when I can.
Tomorrow's race at Fontwell has been held each season since the mid nineties and has been won by some useful sorts including Serenus, Warne's Way and Verasi. In recent years, it has been a fairly average contest for the track with only 2011 winner Secret Edge going on to place in a Grade One. Nevertheless, this year's renewal features a pair of French hurdles imports, one who won impressively on his UK debut, and another who was a beaten favourite first time out. Fontwell's winning DIs of 1.15 median, 1.45 mean are just higher than average, but its extended distance can put additional emphasis when the ground is soft and its completion rate is an accordingly low 85.05%.
Triumph Odds
Nassalam 25/1
Hacker des Places 66/1
Hacker Des Places bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (132) 117 108
Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hacker-des-places
Third behind Paros and Jeu de Paume on his debut at Dieppe in May, Hacker des Places won at the second time of asking at Dax the following month. While Jeu de Paume is firmly established as one of the better juveniles in France, Paros was disappointing on his UK debut at Sandown and though the runner-up at Dax was a dual winner in minor company, the form has not worked out particularly well. Hacker des Places was green on his first two starts in France and that was also the case on his stable bow at Wincanton in October. He also jumped big in France but this was also mixed with some swift jumping which was not apparent at Wincanton and he was readily outpaced by his winning stablemate having never settled during the contest. The form of that contest has not really been tested but he was still clear of the remainder and is likely capable of better, particularly on this softer surface. Though the yard's imported hurdlers have a very good 32.89% strike rate first time, their second time rate is even higher at 35.59%. Of the five imported French Hurdlers beaten at odds-on first time for the yard to have reappeared that season, three have won including Qualando and Saphir du Rheu.
Nassalam chg Gary Moore j2-1-1 (-) 130 126
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam
Gary Moore has won this race four times since 2004 with Alchemystic, Verasi, Darebin and Aiguille Rouge. However, while Verasi would develop into a useful sort, thirteen of the yard's juveniles would achieve higher seasonal RPRs including his runner here. A half-brother to Msassa, Nassalam finished runner-up on his sole start in France which came in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil last week. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132 although that is a falling mark. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut over this course and distance. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a good time and it will be interesting to see against a more substantial opponent in Hacker des Places.
Hipster Macalo bg Mrs Jane Williams J1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cokoriko (Sabrehill){u}(1.00) 2/2 Sacre Toi 1st Handicap Chase (113), Kelso 2013
By Cokoriko (Polirico, Coko Beach and Five O'Clock) and related to numerous winners on the damline, Hipster Macalo made appeal on breeding, ahead of a poor Uttoxeter contest in August and looked well beforehand. However, he started slowly, jumped slowly and would only lose ground. At one stage, he struggled to put distance between himself and a horse who was in the process of being pulled up. To be tailed off so early in such a poor race was an astonishingly bad debut. It would be impossible not to improve on that effort and of the yard's six previously unraced horses who finished sixth or worse on their debuts, one of them won and three were placed. It is difficult to enthuse over the available racecourse evidence, but his connections' record mean that he is not yet a forlorn hope.
Ranco bc David Pipe f9-2-3 (78.1) 69 J2-0-0 (-) 95 99
Makfi (Diesis){6-e}(1.13) 5/4 Native Gallery 3rd Handicap Hurdle (B,139), Punchestown 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ranco
Ranco's last two outings in France saw him win a handicap off 76 and a claimer from which he was bought for €20,001 ahead of a nondescript hurdling debut at Southwell in early September. His jumping on that occasion went from sketchy to fair to sketchy and it was essentially the same last time at Wetherby with four sound jumps sandwiched between clumsy hurdling in the opening stages, and another error at the last. His twenty length seventh was a marked step up on his debut effort, but it still leaves him some way short of his flat form. Being an import of his mould in a yard of its habits, Ranco will likely improve again within a few more outings. However, he is still an entire and has enough to find with the leading contenders.
Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3) j3-0-0 (106) 96 104
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/sans-logique-1
A stablemate of Ranco, Sans Logique is another who was claimed from a French claimer, albeit for €5,000 less.
He ran a fair race on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield even if it did not match his French flat form but his latest three starts have been disappointing. His jumping was erratic on his penultimate start back at Sedgefield and while it was better on his latest outing at this course under a more patient ride, he was a tired horse from some way out. He has since been given a mark of 106 which is a little harsh based on the best of his hurdles efforts, but lenient on the best of his flat form. He has opted to eschew handicaps for the time being and this will be his first outing since a wind operation.
Zellerate bg Mark Gillard b1-0-0 (-) 39 J1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Gutaifan (Barathea){16-f}(1.50) 2/2 Mirzam 2nd Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Worcester 2018
Zellerate cost £33,000 as a yearling, but he failed to make the racecourse for Amanda Perrett and was let go for just 1,500 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. He made his debut in an Exeter junior bumper where he started at 125/1 and beat just one of his eleven rivals home, trailling in by forty-seven lengths. His hurdling debut came at the same venue last month where he was pulled up at 300/1.
Eagle's First bf Neil Mulholland b1-0-0 (-) 52
Free Eagle (Mark Of Esteem){16-d}(0.39) 0.5 Harley Rebel 1st Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (125), Sandown 2016
Another to come from junior bumpers, Eagle's First was not unfancied at Warwick and had also attracted the services of Richard Johnson. However, after racing prominently, she weakened to beat just two of her rivals home and was beaten thirty-four lengths. Her profile is not discouraging however as her sire has already had two winners in the sphere in his first crop, half-brother Harley Rebel won three races in the division for the yard, and useful French handicap chaser Karibiksturm appears on the damline at 3/2. Neil Mulholland wins more than his fair share of races with juvenile hurdlers although neither of his winners came from bumpers which is a discipline with a poor first time out record over hurdles.
Strong prospects
1. Hacker des Places
Reasonable prospects
2. Nassalam
Feasible prospects
3. Hipster Macalo
4. Sans Logique
Moderate prospects
5. Eagle's First
6. Ranco
Negligible prospects
7. Zellerate
Profoundly high praise! Thank you
Though I dare say that if one was to attach a timeform figure, it would certainly come with a squiggle or two...
The withdrawal of Hacker des Places significantly alters the shape of the contest. Fortunately, the amendment to the prospects list is pretty straightforward.
Outstanding prospects
1. Nassalam
Feasible prospects
2. Hipster Macalo
3. Sans Logique
Moderate prospects
4. Eagle's First
5. Ranco
Negligible prospects
6. Zellerate
Behold, a dent has been made in the review backlog. Thirty-three of the ninety-five of the unravelled stitches have been put back into place which brings us up to December. The preview for tomorrow's race at Warwick has also been completed. My current situation is still sketchy at best and there will likely be another patch or two of inactivity coming soon, but hopefully I will be able to do the previews for the good races at Cheltenham and Doncaster if nothing else.
Peat Moss 27/11/2020 Doncaster 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle
Doncaster's handicap hurdle attracted two juveniles, with Peat Moss marginally the better handicapped of the pair. He jumped fine for most of the contest, with the only real mishap coming when he was squeezed out at the seventh. Briefly outpaced when turning for home, he plugged on up the straight without ever threatening the leaders. This was the best of his three runs in handicap company to date and he was suited by the step up in trip. Dropped another pound to 103 he is on a fair mark and should not be disgraced if putting his best foot forward. 103
Fraterculus 27/11/2020 Doncaster 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle
Making his handicap debut, Fraterculus was rated to the fullest extent of his abilities. Keen from the outset, he tracked the leader for most of the race, jumping well in the process. He was still prominent turning in but would fade as the race reached its conclusion and eventually faded back to midfield. The trip might be beyond his scope and he did himself no favours by running freely, although it was not a race in which the front runners fared well. His revised mark of 102 is more in keeping with his better form and he can be competitive off that kind of rating if settling better. 92
NEWCASTLE 28th November
Preview review
The strong prospect was beaten narrowly, the front three were clear of the feasible prospect who was in turn, clear of the remainder. The winner was straighter than anticipated but the margins were narrow so as not to require much revision.
Race review
While it was perhaps not the strongest renewal of the contest, it was still an above average one in the scope of the division as a whole. The pace was sound and the time is respectable in comparison to the one posted by the Champion Hurdler later on the card. The right horses filled the right positions and while the jumping was not always flawless from the principals, but it was still of a good standard. Overall, the form looks reliable.
Son Of Red improved with each of his three outings on the flat this year and he continued that trajectory with another career best here. Tracking the leader throughout, he was fairly keen for the bulk of the contest. Nevertheless, while this gave him a tendency to wander into his early hurdles, the only mechanical errors he made came when under pressure in the straight as he skewed at three out, and got in close to the last two flights. These mistakes had only a moderate impact on his momentum and he got the best of a battle after the last to eventually grind down the leader to win by a neck. He largely jumped economically for a newcomer and the real concern going forward is that he will be want to settle better if he is to progress from this level. Otherwise, he has a decent base on which to build, is not one to shirk a battle and though he has yet to show a preference for going, he appears to act on any type. He currently holds an entry for the Summit Hurdle and it will be interesting to see how he fares should he take his place. 117
State Crown had raced prominently on the flat was sent straight into the lead here. While he was somewhat keen, he was not fighting for his head and settled reasonable well after passing the stands. Though not especially tidy at the first, the only flaws in his jumping through the back were steadying slightly on the approach to a couple which was likely a lack of concentration than any reticence. He clipped the top of three out and rather reached at the penultimate flight, but his jump at the last was as good as any seen in the race. State Crown was headed briefly after the last but showed good resilience to reclaim the lead and was only worn down close to the line. A marked improvement on his Ludlow outing, which itself is working out well, he at least matched the best of his flat form here. Perhaps he may have had enough in reserve to hold on had he settled slightly better but otherwise, it was a solid performance and he is capable of winning a race of his own. 117
Castel Gandolfo began his race with a terribly untidy leap at the first and was big and slow at the next. However, the remainder of his round was error free which is an improvement on his jumping at Musselburgh. He was always racing close to the lead but while he was not discernibly outpaced or outstayed, he was always a couple of lengths short of the front two. Slightly keen, but no worse than his main rivals, he matched his debut outing and is another who can win an ordinary contest. 114
Sir Charles Punch had a habit of pulling hard on the flat, but the introduction of hurdles rather tempered his boistrousness. Beginning his round with a hesitant hop, he got in close to the next two, wandered into the fourth, steadied into the fifth, and after a couple of acceptable jumps, clipped the top of the penultimate flight. Though he attempted to keep tabs on the leaders, he was readily outpaced after three out and was ten lengths behind the third at the line. Nevertheless, he was still upwards of twenty lengths clear of the remainder and while he did not match the best of his flat form, the performance was in keeping with his more recent efforts. Sir Charles Punch was not disgraced and there is scope for improvement with more confident hurdling. 105
I'm Easy achieved little in three outings on the flat and completely lacked fluency on his hurdles debut at Southwell. Save for a slow jump at the first, his jumping was fine here but he never got out of midfield and was beaten thirty-four lengths in the end. He has a shred of ability but he looks unlikely to make any impact in open company at this stage. 83
My Macho Man won at this venue on his flat debut at the end of February for John Quinn, but left that yard for 7,000 guineas ahead of his jumps bow here. His jumping was not tidy in the early stages, but he was still able to get from one side to another quickly enough. However, after getting hampered on the approach to the fourth, he made an error which did cost him momentum and though he regained ground, he began to toil in the straight. It was not a debut outing without promise, but he would need to be more confident before he can replicate his flat ability. 83
Temper Trap won twice on the flat but did not achieve a great deal in the process. He was beaten by thirty-one lengths on his hurdling debut at Catterick but it was not a run without promise and only lost his position in the straight due to being keen early. He was just as keen here but was not as quick getting away from his hurdles this time around and would eventually finish tailed off. 66
Station To Station was having his first run in over a year, and his first start for a trainer with a respectable record in the sphere. He jumped fine for the first three hurdles, but completely missed the fourth and almost fell in the process. He was reasonably fluent from thereon but he never left the rear of the field and eventually finished tired and tailed off. 64
LEICESTER 29th November
Preview review
The winner was given negligible prospects although this was a general consensus given that he had twice been beaten in sellers on either code. His hurdling debut at the track was not abhorrent and his best flat form gave him feasible prospects due to the quality of the race, but he still appeared to have plenty to find. The top prospect was too keen for his own good but the quality of his flat form was questionable in any case. Sure I'm Your Man disappointed but he was revealed to have bled. Opine ran as well as expected and Galidermes ran into a place despite predictably poor jumping.
Race review
This did not look like a compelling affair beforehand and that perception was not improved by a surprise winner who was previously tailed off in a course and distance seller. Nevertheless, those who disappointed had patchy profiles in any case and the front two pulled clear of the strung out remainder. The runner-up looked to shirk the battle but there were no hard luck stories in behind so the superiority of the front two is acceptable on the day. The pace was solid and the winning time was slightly quicker than that of the seller, and less than a second slower than the Class 4 handicap later on the card. The overall quality of the race looks poor and given the inconsistent profiles and performances, would not look particularly reliable in the long term.
Blue Slate brought a flat rating of 47 into his hurdles debut over this course and distance a fortnight earlier where he was beaten over thirty lengths in a seller. He jumped reasonably on that occasion and was still in contention at the top of the long straight. However, his ability to win this type of race was not sufficiently evident and his win here marks a new career best. He travelled well to move into a prominent position entering the back straight and his jumping, while not flawless, helped him maintain his position. He jumped into the lead at three out and though his only mistake at the last saw him briefly headed, he quickly regained the lead and was always holding the runner-up despite hanging his head on the run-in. Blue Slate is clearly a better hurdler than a flat horse but the form is not of a high quality and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate this effort. 100
Opine failed to place in eight runs on the flat for Michael Bell, but he overcame some novicey jumping to finish second on his first start for Jonjo O'Neill at Huntingdon. Though better in the middle portion of his next outing at Lingfield, he took a tired tumble at the last when beaten. His jumping was still untidy here but it was still his best round to date and after travelling well to the last, briefly went into the lead. However, despite trading as low as 1.02 in running, he made little attempt to put the race to bed and finished a length down on the winner. Prone to inconsistency on the flat, Opine is also looking unreliable over hurdles and while he once again surpassed his flat form, he does not look an obvious winner in the near future. 99
Galidermes was a triple winner on the flat in the French provinces, but he made mistakes at most hurdles on his jumps debut at Warwick before finishing tailed off. He also made mistakes at every hurdle here, either jumping too big or too close, and being slow to get away from the later obstacles. He finished closer in what was a much poorer contest, albeit with over fifteen lengths between himself and the winner. Nevertheless, he still had twenty lengths in hand over his remaining rivals. Still a run short of obtaining a mark, he might be able to improve considerably with better jumping. However, for the time being, he has only achieved moderate form and looks in need of further experience. 85
Sergeant was formerly trained in Germany by Christian Von Der Recke, who supplied connections with the useful Mondul who won this race in 2004. Though twice a winner in the fatherland, the standard of form looked no better than average by any measure. He was keen early and did not approach the first two with much conviction. Nonetheless, apart from reaching at the fourth and getting close to the sixth, he was otherwise tidy enough. Held up in the rear, he made some headway entering the straight, but he was unable to sustain a challenge and weakened quite quickly. He reportedly lost a shoe during the contest and a better assessment may be made after another run. 65
Goodbye Grass was last of twelve at 150/1 on his sole flat start in early September and was not fancied to do any better here. His pedigree is unremarkable without being hopeless and he jumped reasonably well for the most part. He was baulked going over the fifth and his hurdling took on a tired character in the straight before finishing tailed off. 54
Bentley Wood had bits and pieces of form to show for a six race career on the flat, but despite jumping reasonably to begin with at Uttoxeter, he finished absolutely tailed off. Wind surgery and a five week break saw no improvement as he pulled hard and his jumping was poor from the start. 51
You Owe Me jumped well in the lead from the outset and was still in contention at three out. However, he dropped away quickly before being allowed to complete in his own time. Another having his first run following wind surgery, looked to be running his best race over hurdles to date before blowing up. His rating of 73 is the second lowest given to any juvenile hurdler thus far, but while it still exceeds his performances at face value, he may still be able to work with it if finding a weak enough race. 51
African Sun was beaten in three handicaps during the summer, the latest occasion seeing him tailed off on a mark of 46. Changing hands for just 1,000 guineas, he completely lacked fluency in the rear of the field and was detached before half-way. He reportedly lost a shoe. 0
Glass Of Bubbles ran away with a seller at this venue on her latest flat outing, but was very disappointing on her hurdling debut at Fakenham where she was slow and untidy before weakening quickly some way from home. After a slow jump at the first, she put in a better round here. However, following a tired jump three from home, she quickly lost her position and was pulled up before the last. 0
Sure I'm Your Man was slightly reticent on his hurdling debut at Bangor, but he still finished a creditable third and was backed into favouritism here. However, he was even more cautious with a stronger gallop and after losing touch down the back straight, his steady jumping became tired jumping. Pulled up before the last, he was found to have bled from the nose. 0
FAIRYHOUSE 29th November
Preview review
All of the horses finished according to the prospects list. Zanahiyr won with greater ease than anticipated but there is little scope for reflection in hindsight.
Race review
The race looked as strong as any seen this side of Christmas and while Druid's Altar went off too quickly, the quality of the first two should not be understated. The pace was strong and the winning time was over ten seconds quicker than the Royal Bond, and six seconds quicker than the Grade A handicap hurdle (plus one hurdle) and nearly five seconds quicker than the concluding bumper. The analysis by Simon Rowlands does a fine job of elucidating the quality of this performance and while it would be fanciful to imagine that Zanahiyr is a near fifty length superior horse to Ballyadam, it was still a very impressive exhibition. The front two both jumped extremely well and were a long way clear of the remainder.
Zanahiyr earned a rating of 80 as an unexposed improver on the flat for Michael Halford, and being a son of Nathaniel from the family of numerous good jumpers, he is bred to do well in this sphere. He made a very pleasing debut over hurdles at Ballinrobe where his jumping was decent save for a few minor errors. While the runner-up rather let the form down next time at Punchestown, the standard of his performance still warranted respect on his step into graded company. Settling behind the clear leader, Zanahiyr closed to within a length with six furlongs left to run and sharing the lead on the run in and had cruised into a definitive lead by the penultimate flight. Shaken up on the approach to the last, he quickly built a lead of over a dozen lengths which he would maintain to the line. While the word perfect should be avoided when describing racehorses, apart from very slightly brushing the top of two out, Zanahiyr jumped about as well as is possible for a juvenile hurdler. If looking for reasons to downplay this performance, the capitulation of Druid's Altar left Zanahiyr with only one rival to beat and that was an import having his first outing for four months. Furthermore, given the exceptional nature of this performance, it is possible that conditions were absolutely optimal for him on this occasion. Nevertheless, he thoroughly deserves his place at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market and while 4/1 is short for any juvenile hurdler before Boxing Day, it can be noted that the last four favourites to have single digit prices at this stage were Peace And Co, Defi du Seuil, Apples Shakira and Goshen. Whatever happens between now and March, it will take a very good horse to lower his colours in this kind of form. 143
Saint Sam was a well-bred, dual winner in France making his stable debut for a yard which used this race to introduce Bapaume and Kalkir in recent seasons. His form in France ties in favourably with that shown by Nassalam and he was fancied to make a winning start in Ireland. Racing alongside Zanahiyr throughout the race, his jumping was very good and the only errors he made were clipping the top of the second and the last while getting in close to the sixth. He had the measure of Druid's Altar as easily as Zanahiyr and traded as low as 1.47 in-running after briefly looking to be travelling the better of the pair. However, it soon became apparent that he was no match for the winner on the day, and plugged on to finish fourteen lengths in arrears. Nevertheless, this was a very pleasing first run for Willie Mullins and with experience under his belt and fitness on his side, there is no reason why Saint Sam can not play his part among the leading juveniles in the division. 133
Druid's Altar had flat form which was only two degrees of separation from the Breeders' Cup mile winner, and he made a very good impression on his hurdling debut at Puchestown in testing conditions a fortnight earlier. His jumping was not always fluent on that occasion and it was the same story here as he was untidy at most of his obstacles. He set a pace which he was unable to maintain and after getting caught by the front two with six furlongs to run, he was left behind by that pair two furlongs later. Though he was able to hold onto third, he did so only by a neck from a filly who was over forty lengths behind him at Punchestown. This was not his true showing and he can return to something like his best under a more patient ride next time. 95
Rock Chica achieved little in six starts on the flat, but after a promising debut at Punchestown in late September, she romped away with a fillies' maiden at Tipperary the following month. She was outclassed behind Druid's Altar next time and while she almost caught that rival here, she was never in contention. Her jumping was reasonable save for getting low at the fifth and steadying at the sixth, but she needs a drop in class if she is to be competitive again. 88
Wyett Earp slightly hampered Rock Chica at the first by jumping left, but while he lacked fluency and was tired with a mile left to run, he was able to collect €550 without making a nuisance of himself. 0
FAKENHAM 30th November
Preview review
The second and third in the prospects lists filled the "correct" positions. However, that was where the accuracy ended as the top prospect flopped, and the winner was given negligible prospects. What makes this baffling is that the winner pulled hard for much of the contest and jumped abysmally. While his Kempton outing showed that he could set a good gallop, it also raised concerns over his stamina which were exacerbated by the softened ground. Can't Stop Now completed a double on the card for his trainer and while he was not the subject of strong support in the market, his success may be put down to him being in good form, and his rivals underperforming to one degree or another. The top prospect was in the process of running a solid race and had traded as low as 1.31 in-running. He was hampered when closing on the leader at two out and while it may be a stretch to say that this incident cost him the race, his subsequent sulking could be an explanation.
Race review
This did not look a strong contest beforehand and the withdrawal of Hacker des Places and the surprise winner consolidated this impression. While a strong pace was set, the winning time was over three seconds slower than the three runner maiden hurdle earlier on the card. Even accounting for the deteriorating ground, the winner of that race was a hurdling debutant carrying ten pounds more than Can't Stop Now. The winner's jumping was poor and the runner-up was not as fluent as last time. While the field finished strung out and the placed horses were entitled to finish as they did, it does not look like the most reliable race from a form perspective.
Can't Stop Now was twice placed on the flat and earned a rating of 73 before leaving Clive Cox for 7,000 guineas in July. While he ran freely on his hurdling debut at Kempton, his novicey jumping settled down as the race progressed and while he faded to finish fifteen lengths third, it was not an effort without promise. However, he deprived himself of the opportunity to supplement that effort next time at Ludlow when virtually refusing to race and pulling up shortly after the start. The rain softened conditions appeared to play against his strengths here and though he led from the outset, his price nearly doubled in-running as he pulled hard for most of the contest. His jumping was also poor as along with almost falling at the sixth, he got in very close to the first and veered badly right at two out. He also wandered into most of his hurdles including the last where he left his hind legs in the flight. Despite all of this, he finished the race better than any of his rivals and was eight lengths clear at the line. Giving Starspangledbanner his first jumps winner, everything about this performance is so anomalous that it can not be taken at face value. Even if the best of his flat form and his Kempton experience gave him a chance in this contest, he pulled so hard and jumped so poorly that it is difficult to imagine that his superiority over all of his opponents is to be trusted. He may well duplicate and exceed this performance in the future, but until that happens, scepticism would be the prevailing sentiment. 106
Grouseman was rated just 50 after seven runs on the flat. However, his better form was on a sound surface and it was on good ground that he posted two progressive efforts over hurdles. He jumped reasonably on his jumps bow at Warwick and was better again when finding only Gold Desert too strong in the closing stages at Catterick. The going was forecast to be good but the ground deteriorated to soft and Grouseman's jumping suffered as he got in close to all but one of his hurdles from the third onwards. Though eight lengths clear of the third, this was still a regression on his Catterick performance and while he has dropped from 118 to 116, this mark still exceeds his achievements. He will be of more interest on better ground in a very ordinary non-handicap. 98
Tamaris decisively won a Wolverhampton handicap off 64 on his final start for Roger Charlton before joining his new connections for 60,000 guineas. Well supported ahead of his debut at Huntingdon, he was a creditable third despite some awkward jumping. While big at the first and steady at the third, his jumping was better here but he was unable to match his debut performance, finishing sixteen lengths behind the winner. He has since been gelded which, along with a return to a sounder surface, may instil the improvement he will need to find if he is to match his rating of 108. 90
Eventful was bought for £11,000 after finishing second in a claimer and has joined a yard with a good record in the division. She jumped well for the most part but while she made some headway on the final circuit, was unable to make any impression in the closing stages. Though beaten by nearly twenty lengths, she was not entirely disgraced on her first outing for new connections but she will still need to improve before she can be competitive. 80
The Cincinnati Kid represented a yard which had recently broke a losing run in the division and this 75 rated flat winner was backed into favouritism to make a winning hurdling debut. He was not altogether convincing with his jumping as he got in close to the second, clipped the top of the fourth and was untidy at the seventh. Nevertheless, while he was not travelling brilliantly, he was still closing on the leader when he was hampered by the same horse at two out. Though this probably did not have a dramatic impact on his performance, it did coincide with his efforts truncating and he was passed by two rivals prior to the finish. His better flat form had come on the all-weather, and his being an entire may also have been detrimental to his performance. Although his flat ability suggests he can fare well in this discipline, he emerges from this contest with something to prove. 82
Jersey Grey had a battling win at Lingfield from a subsequent winner sandwiched between being outclassed at Chepstow and Cheltenham. He returned to calmer waters under a penalty but was already getting pushed along with a circuit to run before losing touch after a mistake three out. The ground will not have been a problem as he won on soft at Lingfield, and given he was in trouble a long way from home, this can be marked down as a straightforward underperformance. His rating of 106 is not excessively harsh and he may fare better in that discipline if returning to his best. 87
Jack Ryan won on heavy ground over seven furlongs at Yarmouth in October, and did not jump badly on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh early in the month. However, he had been below par in two outings on the all-weather and while his jumping was fine once again, he was tired within the final half-mile and pulled up before the last. 0
Nachtstern was moderate on the flat in Germany, but is a half-brother to the useful juvenile Nordano and represents a stable with a good record in the division. However, after reaching for the first, he got in too close to the second, and was big and slow over the next couple of flights. While his jumping settled down, so too did his speed and he was another who pulled up tired. The stable's first time out rate is relatively moderate so it would not be unreasonable to expect some improvement. 0
barjon (9th December 2020)
Tomorrow's juvenile hurdle at Warwick has been held nine times in the past eleven years. While the course has produced decent sorts over the years, this particular contest is below par (average seasonal RPRs of winners being 112), and its being a maiden over the past couple of seasons has done nothing for its quality. Nevertheless, while tomorrow's race may not have much useful hurdling form, it does feature some potentially interesting newcomers including the winner of a French bumper, a pair of ex-Richard Fahey flat horses, and a well-related racecourse debutant. Furthermore, every yard represented has an above average record in the division so there is some depth in this regard. Warwick's average winner's DIs of 1.40 median, 1.56 mean are the fifth highest in Great Britain and are also higher than those of the average runner. The clear round rate of 94.84% is one of the lowest in the country so pace a good aptitude and the ability to handle the forecast soft ground will be useful assets.
Alberic bg Nick Williams j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Poliglote (Kahyasi){2-c}(0.89) 1/0 Khayance 1st 3YO Chase, Enghien 2011
By Poliglote and out of a winning chaser from the family of Chance du Roy (3/1), Mater Matuta (4/2) and Taranis (4/3), Alberic is bred to make a jumper. The conditions were likely too sharp for him on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon but he was still disappointing as he jumped poorly before pulling up three from home. The stable is in better form and the softer ground may suit better but he would still have questions to answer.
Ambassador bg Dan Skelton f5-0-2 (61) 66
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){19}(1.00) 2/2 Fin Vin De Leu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2010
Richard Fahey has supplied 34 juvenile hurdlers since the 2008/09 season and eight have been winners giving him a fair 23.53% winners to runners rate. Most have been no better than average with only Chief Justice and Come On Sunshine recording RPRs exceeding 115. Nevertheless, while only 42.86% improved for the switch between codes, this is still in the top third of sources with ten or more qualifiers. Two ex-inmates of Fahey's are declared for this contest, the first being five race maiden Ambassador who fetched £16,000 at the Goffs UK Silver sale. Beaten six lengths or more in three starts as a two-year-old, he contested a pair of handicaps this October with his better effort coming last time when just over six lengths third in a fourteen furlong Catterick contest on soft ground. Running off a mark of 63, he plugged on at one pace to grab third near the line behind a subsequent maiden hurdle winner, and ahead of a horse who was subsequently third off a five pound lower rating. While he is related to fair types in Fin Vin De Leu and Last Shadow at 2/2, the bulk of relatives who went hurdling have been disappointing and sire Invincible Spirit has an improvement rate of just 29.41% and a strike rate of 6.85%. Trainer Dan Skelton has a winner and a runner-up from five runners in this contest and three of his ten juveniles rated lower than 65 on the flat have been successful in the division.
Balkardy chg Evan Williams Unraced
Balko (Limnos){1-e}(0.50) 2/2 Roll On Has 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2014
The yards of Nick and Jane Williams have a good record with their previously unraced juveniles. However, the same can not be said of Evan Williams who since 2008/09, has just one winner of this sort from eighteen, coming when Takelli took a Stratford Claimer on his second start back in June 2009. Nevertheless, not many will have been as well bred as Balkardy. A son of Balko (Blacko, Gitaine du Berlais, Ubaltique), his granddam was a dual winning juvenile in France and is the matriarch of a line which includes Royale Cazoumaille (fourth in the 2005 Grand Prix d'Automne and dam of Venetia Williams' promising Royale Pagaille), Royal Satarania (first in the 2015 Prix Murat), Inoxe Royale (winner of a four year old Listed Chase) and top French juvenile hurdler Roll On Has. The yard is amongst the winners but his clear round rate of 94.70% is lower than average and unraced horses of any nature have a strike rate of just 2%. Likeable though Balkardy's pedigree may be, he will benefit from experience.
Dreaming Blue bg Anthony Honeyball f7-1-0 (72) 77
Showcasing (Duke Of Marmalade){1-l}(0.78) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Handicap Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
The second of the Musley Bank graduates, Dreaming Blue was the more expensive of the pair, fetching 60,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale to join Anthony Honeyball. Progressive during his first six outings, Dreaming Blue got off the mark at the seventh time of asking when last seen in a mile-and-a-half Wolverhampton handicap back in August. Running in second time cheekpieces off a mark of 68, greenness prevented him from passing his rival for much of the straight, but was able to sort himself out in the final half-furlong and ran on to win by a length at the line. The runner-up has not advertised the form, but the third won a handicap next time and recent Sandown winner Elham Valley was nearly thirteen lengths behind in fifth. Anthony Honeyball has had eight juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09 with two of them being winners, one of those scoring first time out. In nineteen runs between them, none have registered a fall, unseat or refusal. Showcasing is better known as a sire of sprinters, but two of his nine juvenile hurdlers have been winners - albeit without recording triple digit RPRs. The damline suggests that Dreaming Blue should get the trip, although the closest jumpers are three generations away. Dreaming Blue has a fair enough profile overall and is entitled to respect in this company, although he has not ran since August and with flat horses rated between 70 and 74 having a slightly below average strike rate of 9.64%, he is another who may benefit for experience.
Galidermes bg Charlie Mann f13-3-3 FrF (66) 38 j2-0-1 (-) 90 85
Hunter's Light (Galileo){6-a}(0.58) 2/1 Theos Quercus 1st 4yo Hurdle, Dieppe 2001
Galidermes was a triple winner on the flat in the French provinces, and left Joël Boisnard for €6,001 after his latest win. He made mistakes at most hurdles on his jumps debut at this venue behind Adagio before finishing tailed off. He also made mistakes at every hurdle last time at Leicester, either jumping too big or too close, and being slow to get away from the later obstacles. He finished closer in what was a much poorer contest, albeit with over fifteen lengths between himself and the winner. Nevertheless, he still had twenty lengths in hand over his remaining rivals. Still a run short of obtaining a mark, he might be able to improve considerably with better jumping. However, for the time being, he has only achieved moderate form and looks in need of further experience.
Hamilton Dici bg Mrs Jane Williams j1-0-0 (-) 93 ?
Coastal Path (Assessor){5-j}(0.71) 1/0 Umbria Dici 1st 3YO Conditions Hurdle, Salon Provence 2011
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hamilton-dici
Initially entered in a couple of contests in the UK, Hamilton Dici would make his hurdling debut in a newcomers race at Compiegne on the first of November. Sent off at odds of 92/1, he began in a prominent position but after skewing at the first and getting too close to the second, he dropped back to a midfield position that he would never leave. Jumping slowly and to the right at the next, he skewed over the sixth and eighth and was slow over the ninth and the last after which he finished an eighteen length tenth. The winner was subsequently beaten by thirty three lengths in a Groupe III at the same venue later in the month, the fourth was a twelve length runner-up at Auteuil later in the month while the fifth filled the same position at Compiegne while receiving four kilos. The standard of form is difficult to quantify but the RPR of 93 does not look unreasonable and the yard's horses with experience in France win their fair share of races. Coastal Path has a fair winners to runners rate in France and the dam was a winning juvenile in the provinces. Better hurdling on his debut would have been preferable but the experience is there and he would not be entirely ruled out in this company.
Hope You Do bg Philip Hobbs b1-1-0
Boris de Deauville (Nononito){3-c}(2.00) 2/1 Bidourey 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Fontwell 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hope-you-do
The Prix d'Amours is an AQPS newcomers bumper held in May and while it has not been the source of juvenile hurdlers during its history, the 2015 winner was the tricky but talented Crack Mome. This year's renewal was taken by the Isabelle Pacault trained Hope You Do who made most of the running and ran on well to win by two lengths. The runner-up was fourth next time, conceding a kilo and finishing within a length of Hudson de Grugy who made a respectable UK debut at Sandown over the weekend, before winning a race of his own next time. The third placed horse finished second next time while the seventh placed finisher is also a winner. Anne-Sophie and Isabelle Pacault have been responsible for six juvenile hurdlers since 2014, and two of them have been winners. Espoir d'Allen went on to become a Champion Hurdler while Bidourey won on his first three starts in the division. Hope You Do is out of a half-sister to the latter and while the pedigree does not contain champions, it is a consistent source of winners and the dam, granddam and third dam all won chases as four-year-olds. Philip Hobbs has a strong record in the division with well above average figures across the board. His first time out strike rate is also a pleasing 20.51% with two of his first time out winners coming from AQPS races including Defi du Seuil.
Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens Unraced
Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
Robert Stephens has saddled just six juvenile hurdlers during his career, but two have been winners including the useful Beltor and none of his charges have fallen, unseated or refused. Son Of Oz will be his first unraced debutant in the sphere, but he does have a pedigree appropriate for the discipline. Australia produced three winning juvenile hurdlers in his first crop while Monsun has a 28.57% winners to runners rate as a damsire. A half-brother to winning hurdler Normal Norman, Son Of Oz also has the likes of Aviso (3/1), Aramon (3/2), Aramax (3/2) and King's Socks (3/3) on the damline. However, as mentioned earlier, newcomers have a poor first time out strike rate and there is some concern over Son Of Oz's sale prices as while he fetched 50,000 guineas as a foal, he was let go for 3,000 guineas as a yearling.
Lunar Bounty bf Alan King f1-0-0 (-) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 76 78
Sea The Moon (King's Theatre){25}(0.65) 1/0 The Pirate's Queen 4th David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2015
Though well beaten on her sole flat start back in July, Lunar Bounty represents a top yard in the division with two wins in this particular contest, and is bred to be a jumper. By Sea The Moon (33.33% winners to runners with juveniles), she is out of a King's Theatre mare who was fourth in the Mares' Hurdle at the Festival who herself is a full-sister to The Dutchman and Katie Too. The granddam won a Grade Three mares' novice chase and the likes of Addington Boy and Lord Noelie can also be found on the damline. Lunar Bounty was not particularly well fancied ahead of her hurdles bow at Leicester behind Megan but while hampered at the first, she only made one real mistake at the fourth and travelled well before being outpaced in the straight. While the bare form of being beaten by over thirty lengths is poor, it was not the worst introduction. However, but she may be one who benefits from time to develop as a hurdler.
Strong prospects
1. Hope You Do
Reasonable prospects
2. Dreaming Blue
3. Ambassador
4. Hamilton Dici
Feasible prospects
5. Lunar Bounty
6. Balkardy
Moderate prospects
7. Galidermes
8. Alberic
Negligible prospects
9. Son Of Oz
If essay previews are not really your thing and you would prefer walls of data then you are in for a treat. Conversely, if you find masses of data to be cold and tedious then I have some unfortunate news. Personal circumstances, essentially homelessness in conjunction with ADD*, have played havoc on my time management and concentration skills. So instead of essay previews, I can only really present the raw data in a deconstructed fashion. While some people will pay good money for this type of presentation at certain restaurants, I am old fashioned in that I rather the chef actually cooks the meal. Luckily, having been teetotal for several years and currently being in a satisfactory women situation, homelessness is perhaps the easiest affliction for someone with ADD to manage. As such, while the recovery schedule for this particular challenge is vague at best, I should still have enough wit about me to continue contributing to this thread in one fashion or another.
*ADD - Attention Deficit Disorder is similar to ADHD but instead of ants in the pants, it's more dozens of tabs open at the same time with none of them related to the sole reason you opened the laptop, and the 'close tabs' button doesn't work, oh look, a squirrel! People with ADD also have a propensity to overshare...
So there are three races tomorrow and they all look very nice. But instead of essays to preview them, it will be course details, a history of the race's impact on bigger Juvenile Hurdles later in the season, trainer's record in said race, overview of trainer and sire records in the division with information on source trainers for newcomers with a new yard, and summaries of race records, ratings and pedigrees.
FAIRYHOUSE
Adamaris chg Gerard O'Leary f12-1-2 (68) 75
Born To Sea (Oratorio){22-b}(1.86) 2/1 Juno The Muffinman 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2012
Baltinglass Hill bg P J Rothwell f3-0-0 (75) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cable Bay (Iffraaj){16-a}(2.00) 3/0 Wheeler's Wonder 1st Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Wincanton 1993
Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f10-0-7 (80) 86 j1-0-0 (-) 88 116
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (54) 70 j4-0-1 (-) 112 115
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
Damage Control chg Gordon Elliott f11-1-4 (84) 95 (Andrew Balding) 70,000 gns Tatts Autumn
Zoffany (Nashwan){16-h}(4.60) 0.5 Cartwright 1st Listed Novice Hurdle, Navan 2018
Ilmig bg Mrs John Harrington f2-1-1 (-) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 119 120
Galileo (Empire Maker){A4}(0.96) 3/2 Lorikeet 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2005
Movie King chg A J Martin f6-0-1 (46) 55 j2-0-0 (-) 83 80
Animal Kingdom (Songandaprayer){2-d}(9.00) 4/6 Red Tornado 2nd Summer Handicap Hurdle (130), Market Rasen 2017
Peckham Springs chg Paul Stafford f6-0-0 (79) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 101 99
Gale Force Ten (Daylami){21-a}(1.67) 3/2 Balanak 1st Dovecote Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 1995
Toughari bg Thomas Mullins f7-1-0 (63) 66 j3-0-0 (-) 107 108
Tough As Nails (Imperial Ballet){14-e}(1.00) 2/2 Golden Sage 1st Grande Course de Haies des 4 Ans (L), Cagnes Sur Mer 2018
Townes bg Thomas Cleary f5-0-0 (53) 54 j1-0-0 (-) 86 89
Elusive Pimpernel (Kodiac){12-g}(1.22) 3/3 Berjou 3rd Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (G1), Auteuil 2019
Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j1-0-0 (-) 22 22
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 2/2 Jeff Kidder 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Fairyhouse 2020
Laralei bf Noel C Kelly f6-0-1 (52) 54 (Ger Lyons)
Hot Streak (Mujadil){7}(1.86) 3/1 Double Account 1st Handicap Hurdle (114), Huntingdon 2003
Roma Delight bf T M Walsh f10-0-4 UsF 30 j1-0-0 (-) 79 77
Paynter (Devil His Due){8}(2.20) 2/1 Arch Rebel 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2004
Saga Malta bf Barry J Fitzgerald j3-0-0 (-) 89 92
War Command (Exceed And Excel){22-b}(2.11) 2/1 Juno The Muffinman 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2012
Reserves
Willywampus chg Donal Commins f5-0-1 (75) 82 j1-0-0 (-) 76 80
Zoffany (Medicean){16-h}(3.00) 3/1 Swiss Guard 1st Handicap Hurdle (93), Lingfield 2011
Pushover grf Noel C Kelly f6-0-0 (56) 57 (Steph Hollinshead)
Hellvelyn (Petorius){8-k}(3.00) 1/0 Soft Touch 1st Novices' Hurdle, Worcester 1999
French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Newbury 2016
CHELTENHAM
Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 65 j5-2-1 (118) 108 123
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
Son Of Red bg Alan King f7-1-2 (66) 70 j1-1-0 (-) 106 117
French Navy (Kalanisi){5-b}(1.67) 3/1 Always Bold 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Doncaster 2009
Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j2-1-1 (130) 120 124
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
Blue Slate grg Barry Brennan f8-0-1 (47) 58 j2-1-0 (113) 105 100
Alhebayeb (Halling){7-f}(1.15) 3/2 Eddiemaurice 1st Handicap Hurdle (122), Ascot 2016
Camouflaged grg Charlie Mann f12-2-5 (76) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 69 79
Dark Angel (Singspiel){6-b}(1.33) 2/2 Leoncavallo 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2015
Pawpaw bg Paul Webber 5-1-1 (74) 77 (Clive Cox) 62,000gns Tatts July
Showcasing (Teofilo){1-n}(1.00) 2/1 Double Deputy 1st Handicap Hurdle (105), Market Rasen 2007
Shake A Leg bg Dan Skelton f11-1-0 (82) 86 (Andrew Oliver) 30,000gns Tatts Autumn
Excelebration (Dance Brightly){A24}(3.57) No jumps relatives
Simply True chg D J Jeffreys f18-4-1 (85) 87 (Andrew Oliver) 50,000gns Tatts Autumn
Camacho (Beat Hollow){5-h}(1.46) 2/1 Dr Livingstone 1st Novices' Hurdle, Leicester 2009
DONCASTER
Monmiral blg Paul Nicholls j2-2-0 (137) 120 124
Saint Des Saints (Mont Basile){16}(0.60) 2/1 La Landiere 160 1st Cathcart Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2003
Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Glorious Zoff bg Gordon Elliott f6-0-1 (70) 74 j2-1-0 (-) 126 134
Zoffany (Overbury){4-r}(1.40) 3/1 Spate River 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Southwell 2012
Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j3-2-1 (123) 110 120
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
Mistersister grg Charlie Mann f1-0-0 (-) 47 j3-1-0 FrH (130) - (Francois Nicolle) €16,006 Claimer
Wootton Bassett (Mineshaft){9-e}(1.22) 1/0 Peace Mine 1st 3yo Hurdle, Compiegne 2014
So in conclusion did you find a bet?
I'm sure there are one or two lurking around amongst the chaos...
I'm planning on getting the prospects lists out either before I go to sleep or before the first race at least...
Just to clarify, I am not a tipster so there are no bets. There are never any bets. Only prospects lists...
Triumph odds
Monmiral 25/1
Adagio 40/1
Son Of Red 40/1
Elham Valley 50/1
Ilmig 50/1
Charlie Bassett 50/1
Historic Heart 66/1
Glorious Zoff 66/1
Fred Winter odds
Adagio 14/1
Elham Valley 20/1
Glorious Zoff 33/1
Ilmig 33/1
Damage Control 40/1
Fairyhouse
Strong prospects
1. Ilmig
Reasonable prospects
2. Charlie Bassett
3. Damage Control
4. Complete Fantasy
Feasible prospects
5. Toughari
6. Adamaris
Moderate prospects
7. Peckham Springs
8. Saga Malta
9. Willywampus (R)
10. Townes
Negligible prospects
11. Laralei
12. French Asset (R)
13. Roma Delight
14. Movie King
15. Lady Kapalua
16. Pushover (R)
17. Baltinglass Hill
Cheltenham
Strong prospects
1. Adagio
Reasonable prospects
2. Son Of Red
3. Elham Valley
Feasible prospects
4. Historic Heart
Moderate prospects
5. Simply True
6. Shake A Leg
7. Camouflaged
Negligible prospects
8. Blue Slate
9. Pawpaw
Doncaster
Strong prospects
1. Glorious Zoff*
Reasonable prospects
2. Monmiral
Feasible prospects
3. Gold Desert
Moderate prospects
4. Mistersister
Negligible prospects
5. Cloud Thunder
*There is reason to suspect that Glorious Zoff may be ran with the intention of protecting his mark ahead of a tilt at the Fred Winter. However, on known form and in these conditions, Glorious Zoff has a winner's chance if running to the fullest extent of his abilities.
Thanks for your efforts, BH, and best of luck on all other fronts.
Bachelors Hall (14th December 2020)
Catterick's second juvenile hurdle takes place tomorrow and it offers an opportunity to qualify for the £35,000 final at Musselburgh in March. Tomorrow's contest has been held each year since 2014 but while it is slightly better than the average race at the North Yorkshire venue, its standard is held up by 2016 first and second Nietzsche and Project Bluebook who would finish third and fourth in that season's Fred Winter. On known hurdling form, this year's renewal appears trappy without being especially classy with a good dozen of the runners separated by no more than half a stone. However, southern raider and newcomer to the sphere, Indigo Lake, could be a useful recruit as his BHA rating of 91 is the highest brought to the division thus far this season. A sharp track with only minor undulations, Catterick is one of the easier circuits in the country. Although its varied DIs of 1.19 median, 1.40 mean imply that a soft surface can make a difference which is the current state of the ground. The clear round rate of 95.76% is just below average but would not suggest a particularly stern jumping test.
Genever Dragon bg Donald McCain f10-0-2 (62) 71 j3-1-1 (115) 104 109
Dragon Pulse (Red Clubs){1-w}(1.29) 3/1 Staunch Rival 2nd Handicap Chase (124), Sandown 1995
Winless after ten starts on the flat for Tom Dascombe, Genever Dragon was able to score at the first time of asking over hurdles when taking a Sedgefield maiden from Magna Moralia at the end of September. He was unable to build on that success on his return to the venue, finishing twenty lengths behind Glorious Zoff and Gold Desert, rather struggling in the softer ground. He returned to something like his best last time over tomorrow's course and distance when twelve lengths behind Gold Desert and Grouseman (each finishing second next time) while confirming superiority over Magna Moralia. His jumping there cost him several lengths but no places. Nevertheless, this relative renaissance came on ground much firmer than what he is likely to encounter tomorrow and his penalty will be a hindrance against several of his rivals.
El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57
Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
Since 2008/09, five of Brian Ellison's twenty-one juvenile hurdlers at Catterick have been winners, and his three runners in this particular contest have all reached the frame. The master of Spring Cottage Stables saddles two runners here, the first being flat maiden El Jefe. Rated 53 after seven runs on the level, he was twice able to reach the frame including when last seen when runner-up in a soft ground, ten-furlong Redcar handicap in early October. His first run since wind surgery, he made good headway to run into second during the straight but looked very suspect when asked to go after the leader. The first and second each won next time, but there are still half a dozen opponents here who are rated upwards of a stone higher. Born To Sea has done well in the division thus far with a 26.09% winners to runners rate, and he is out of a full-sister to winning juvenile hurdler Mountain. However, El Jefe has moderate form and a questionable attitude to overcome and he looks the yard's second string.
En Couleur bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (60) 68 j1-0-0 (-) 101 108
Archipenko (With Approval){16}(0.90) 2/1 Circus Maximus 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2001
Micheal Easterby is another doubly represented trainer in this race, although his figures are below average (10.81% winners to runners) and he has had six juveniles race at Catterick without finishing placed. The first of his pair, En Couleur, was unable to replicate the promise of his debut third in two subsequent starts on the flat. Nevertheless, he outran his odds of 125/1 to finish an eleven length fourth in a Wetherby maiden three weeks ago. Faring best of those held up, he was still in the rear leaving the back. However, he plugged on up the straight and narrowly got the best of a closely fought battle for fourth. Apart from getting close to the sixth, his jumping was sound throughout and the performance marked a new career best. Given that this was only the fourth time he had seen a racecourse, there is still potential for further development and his jumping should see him in good stead. Notwithstanding, the stable could be in better form and En Couleur may be better suited by a sterner test than that offered by Catterick.
Fahad bg Danny Brooke f5-0-1 (72) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 84 90
Farhh (Nayef){1-k}(2.50) 3/3 Lisheen Castle 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Wetherby 2019
Rated as high as 77 during a five race career for Roger Varian, Fahad joined Danny Brooke for 14,000 guineas and was his new handler's first foray in the discipline over this course and distance last month. Held up in the rear and jumping none too fluently, he passed beaten horses to finish a twenty-three length fifth. While it would be fair to expect some improvement for the experience, he is not especially bred to thrive in the division and has ground to find on Genever Dragon.
Hellfire Kode bg Simon Waugh f2-0-0 (-) 14
Helmet (Kodiac){12-g}(0.82) 3/1 High Magic 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Clonmel 2010
Beaten a combined forty-seven lengths, Hellfire Kode beat only one of eighteen rivals home in a pair of novice stakes at Newcastle and Redcar back in June. Representing a trainer without a winning jumper in over two years, sire Helmet does get winning juveniles but less than his fair share. The granddam is a half-sister to a placed hurdler and capable French juvenile Flavin appears further back on the damline at 4/4.
I'm Easy bg Michael Easterby f3-0-0 (50) 45 j2-0-0 (-) 76 83
Archipenko (Sadler's Wells){20-c}(0.85) 0.5 Strategic Bid 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2012
The stablemate of En Couleur, I'm Easy achieved little in three outings but has made a marginally better hurdler. Following a moderate hurdles bow at Southwell, he jumped fine without leaving midfield when beating three home at Newcastle seventeen days ago. He finished twenty-two lengths behind Sir Charles Punch and there is no reason to suggest he can reverse those placings.
Indigo Lake bg Dr Richard Newland f9-2-3 (91) 96
Frankel (Oasis Dream){11}(0.67) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
Newcomer Indigo Lake has several attributes which make him a compelling recruit to the division. His official rating of 91 is the highest seen this season and it came courtesy of a decisive win at Newcastle in September. Travelling easily behind the leaders, he cruised to the front with just over a furlong to go and stayed on well to finish two and a half lengths clear of his rivals. The runner-up was a length third next time off the same mark while third placed Iffraaz scored by three lengths at Kempton. Indigo Lake was not disgraced on his sole subsequent start when finishing midfield in the Old Rowley Cup Handicap the following month. Frankel is establishing himself as a versatile stallion of classic calibre flat horses and while he is unlikely to match those heights with his hurdlers, he has already produced useful juveniles in Solo Saxophone and Commentariolus. Indigo Lake's granddam is a half-sister to top class hurdler Kerawi and Grade Three winning novice Hash Brown appears at 4/2 on the damline. Dr Richard Newland's winners to runners rate of 44.44%, including Duke Street and Vosne Romanee, is the best of the trainers represented in the field and none of his juveniles have fallen, unseated or refused in seventy-two races. Leaving John Gosden for 95,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Indigo Lake is his trainer's most expensive recruit in the divsion. However, it is here where doubts begin to creep into the profile. So talented is John Gosden as a flat trainer that his graduates typically leave without room for improvement. As a source, his winners to runners rate in the division is 12.24% with only 14.71% finding any improvement for the switch between codes. There are of course exceptions and of the forty-nine ex-Gosden horses to compete in the sphere, only Triumph hurdle fifth Sir Pitt has earned an RPR exceeding 121. Oasis Dream's record as a damsire is similarly harrowing as his strike rate in said capacity is just 2.08%. There are also concerns with Indigo Lake himself as not only has he shown better form on good ground but has also looked a difficult ride on occasion. While Indigo Lake could potentially be a useful recruit to the sphere, it remains to be seen if the negatives are enough to spoil his profile like the proverbial curate's egg.
Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j3-0-1 (108) 98 103
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
With three runs over jumps to his name, Kings Creek is the joint most experienced hurdler in the field. With the exception of one rival, he is also the freshest by virtue of his seventy-seven day absence. His first two starts, a fourteen length fourth to Hiconic at Stratford and a six length fourth to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen, were characterised by understated professionalism. Leaving Alan King for £12,500 at the Goffs UK September Sale, he jumped well enough again on his stable debut at Sedgefield behind Genever Dragon. The standard of form he has shown is respectable for the standard of this race and he might benefit for the layoff. However, he would still need to show further improvement and does not look likely to be suited by the softer ground.
Kiss My Face bg Brian Ellison b2-0-2 96
Nathaniel (Dansili){20-a}(0.83) 0.5 Major Snugfit 2nd Handicap Hurdle (79), Sedgefield 2020
The first string of Brian Ellison, Kiss My Face will be only the third juvenile for his trainer to have emerged from junior bumpers. Placed on both starts to date, he made his debut at Market Rasen where after finding himself outpaced at the distance, plugged on to finish just under five lengths third. Next time at Huntingdon, he was no match for Eileendover, who subsequently ran away with another bumper at Wetherby, but kept on again to finish second from a strung-out field which included Market Rasen runner-up (ahead of Yulong Magicreef) Shalott. The step up in trip should suit as should the switch to an easier surface as he is out of mare who won twice on soft ground. Nathaniel (Zanahiyr, Navajo Pass, Burning Victory) has an impressive strike rate of 26.32% with his juveniles although enthusiasm is tempered by Dansili's 5.32% as a damsire and the most notable jumper on the damline is Hexham chase winner Currahee at 3/1. This season's bumper recruits have amassed three places between them, while the overall first time out record of such horses is rather lamentable, those who achieved RPRs of 95 and above win their fair share of hurdles. As mentioned earlier, Brian Ellison has a fine record in this race, but he is currently on a winless streak of forty-three over jumps and though his charges tend to improve for the run, his first-time strike rate of 14.86% is still above average.
Sir Charles Punch bg Tim Easterby f12-0-2 (68) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 98 105
Sir Percy (Archipenko){1-k}(0.33) 3/1 Cava Bien 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (104), Newbury 2006
Rated 77 on his final start for James Given last year, Sir Charles Punch's mark dropped nine pounds after seven races this term. This is perhaps less a reflection on his capacity, and more his ability to fulfil same as he had a tendency of sweating up and pulling hard. While he settled better on his jumps debut at Newcastle, he was far from straightforward with his hurdling. Very hesitant at the first couple of flights, he also wandered and steadied into a couple down the back. There was improvement in his jumping as the race progressed and though he was readily outpaced after three out and was ten lengths behind the third at the line, he was still upwards of twenty lengths clear of the remainder. The form of that contest has been somewhat substantiated with the winner faring creditably in a better race at Cheltenham. There is room for further improvement if he can jump more confidently although Tim Easterby's juveniles do not necessarily step up on their debut efforts as a rule. Nevertheless, the strength of Sir Charles Punch's performance at face value is still enough to make him competitive and he may find further improvement for the softer surface on flat form and breeding.
Wise Eagle chg Adam Nicol f6-1-0 (67) 74
Free Eagle (Exceed And Excel){9-e}(1.00) 3/2 Cardinal Palace 2nd Persian War Novices' Hurdle (G2) Chepstow 2015
Fourth on his debut at Lingfield in January, Wise Eagle followed a success at the same venue with a quartet of seventh placed finished in handicaps between eight and twelve furlongs. Rated 77 following his success, he subsequently dropped ten pounds and left Tom Clover for the sum of 7,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Set to be Adam Nicol's first juvenile hurdler, he is also a contingent of Free Eagle's first crop which has already produced two winners from five. The blinkers he wore on his latest two starts are left off here, and it remains to be seen if this is a useful step as he took an extremely keen hold when last seen at Yarmouth in October. Though his flat form is appropriate for this company, he is not an assured stayer and his attitude renders his profile as patchy for the time being.
Yulong Magicreef bg Jonjo O'Neill f5-0-1 (78) 73 j2-0-1 (-) 92 101
Fastnet Rock (Zamindar){13-c}(2.64) 3/1 Cape Express 1st Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Yulong Magicreef followed a compelling racecourse debut at the Curragh in June with four increasingly disappointing efforts for Jessica Harrington and was beaten fifty lengths on his hurdling debut at Wetherby. There was little cause for complaint insofar as his jumping was concerned and another good round saw an improved effort last time out when third to Volkovka at Market Rasen twelve days ago. Held up in midfield, he joined the vanguard in the straight but was unable to put his stamp on the race and was outpaced after the last. While a huge improvement on his debut, it was not the most substantial contest and the performance was still someway short of his better flat form. Nevertheless, he is representing a Jonjo O'Neill yard which won this race last year and would not be readily dismissed.
Miracle Eagle bf Jedd O'Keeffe f7-0-2 (57) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 94 101
Free Eagle (Lawman){13-b}(0.52) 2/1 Heat Storm 5th Maiden Hurdle, Fakenham 2017
A progressive if moderate maiden on the flat, Miracle Eagle had a fair introduction to hurdles when fifth at Wetherby last month. She had the tendency to be headstrong on the flat and it was this trait which caused her to wander on the approach to the second. However, she got over that hurdle well enough and was able to settle better entering the back. Though she faded from a prominent position in the straight, losing fourth to En Couleur on the line, this still represented a new career best and the less taxing demands of Catterick may suit her better. However, she was withdrawn from an engagement on the flat due to soft ground and the stable would ideally be in better form.
Walkonby chf Micky Hammond f13-4-2 (72) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 67 67
Sixties Icon (Fastnet Rock){4-m}(1.00) 2/1 Baan 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2011
A four-time winner on the flat for Mick Channon, Walkonby's latest success came on her seasonal reappearance at Haydock in a ten-furlong handicap off 71. Although she did not run to that level in three subsequent outings, she returned to something like her best on her latest flat outing when fourth of thirteen in a soft ground Doncaster handicap in October. Joining Micky Hammond for 16,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, she took a keen hold from the outset on her hurdling debut at Wetherby and did not settle at any stage prior to tiring. She did make headway along the back and was still in touch at the top of the straight. However, her exertions had taken a toll and she weakened before finishing a forty-five length ninth. This was a disappointing performance on the face of it, but it was not without promise as her jumping had been very neat and she only made her first error at three out where she was squeezed out on the approach. The cheekpieces she wore at Doncaster were left off here and though she was still keen early on last time, it was not to the same extent so. They have yet to be reapplied however and while the yard is in better form and its runners often improve with experience, it would be preferable to see her settle better before she can be given serious prospects.
Where's The Tape bf Sean Conway j1-0-0 (-) 73 83
Coach House (Southern Halo){1-x}(1.40) 2/1 Actionnaire 3rd Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2002
Where's The Tape was making her racecourse debut for a mostly unproven sire and trainer when last seen at Sedgefield in October. Though a descendent of Allez France and distantly related to some top juveniles, there was not much else to recommend her. Nevertheless, a slow jump at the first notwithstanding, she put in an acceptable round of hurdling and stayed on to briefly run into third on the run-in before losing that position on the line. This was all the more creditable considering that she cantered loose prior to the start of the race. What she achieved probably amounts to little from a form perspective as winner Gold Desert was the only participant with discernible quality. Nevertheless, it was not the worst introduction to the discipline although she still has something to find with most of her rivals.
Strong prospects
1. Kiss My Face
Reasonable prospects
2. Sir Charles Punch
3. Indigo Lake
4. Yulong Magicreef
Feasible prospects
5. Genever Dragon
6. En Couleur
7. Miracle Eagle
8. Walkonby
9. Kings Creek
Moderate prospects
10. Wise Eagle
11. Where's The Tape
12. Fahad
Negligible prospects
13. El Jefe
14. I'm Easy
15. Hellfire Kode
Once upon a time, Newbury hosted two juvenile hurdles in November. This was reduced to the one at the Hennessy meeting and since 2016, juveniles' first sight of the Berkshire venue occur in tomorrow's corresponding contest. Of all the racecourses which do not host a graded contest in the sphere, only Ascot's winning juveniles have a superior seasonal RPR to Newbury's 128. Tomorrow's race is generally a well-contested affair with the average winning seasonal RPR being 131. The 2008 renewal was particularly strong with the first two, Zaynar and Walkon, filling the same places in the Triumph Hurdle. Other classy winners include Clan des Obeaux, Third Intention and Style de Garde. This year's renewal may struggle to reach those heights as the experienced horses have shown only reasonable form, and the highest rating brought by the flat recruits is 82. The mean winning DI of 1.41 is higher than average, although the median figure of 1.09 is on the other side of standard. Compared to those of the average runner, there is less discernible difference than usual which follows the premise that Newbury is one of the fairest courses in the UK. Its clear round rate of 96.81% also supports this notion. The going is currently described as soft with more rain forecast for after the race than beforehand.
Overpriced Mixer bg Nicky Henderson f6-2-2 (78) 78 j2-1-0 (-) 114 111
Harbour Watch (Daylami){21-a}(1.40) 4/2 Mike Quercus 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2014
Joining Nicky Henderson as a two-year-old for £90,000, Overpriced Mixer was well beaten off a mark of 78 on his sole run for his new trainer on the flat. He made a winning start to his jumps career at Kempton, although it was not entirely straightforward as a mistake at the last saw his rider complete the race without irons. Nevertheless, he won with something to spare from Kentucky Hardboot and while it did not look the strongest race hosted at Kempton, the third and fourth, each upwards of fifteen lengths behind the winner, have each franked the form by winning their next completed starts. Bypassing the Grade 2 at Cheltenham for a Ludlow contest the same week, his jumping was slightly worse and he was awkward over several of his hurdles. He did not get particularly high over the penultimate flight, but it was a slight slip a couple of strides afterwards which caused him to lose Nico de Boinville. It can not be said for certain that he would have won or lost this race as he was still in contention, and given he was running fairly green in the straight, may have found more for getting a good stride. However, the winner, Talking About You, had made ground on him on the run to two out and she also ran on strongly all the way to the line so on balance, Overpriced Mixer would likely have finished second. Nevertheless, the form of this race is also looking stronger in hindsight than it did contemporarily. Talking About You was an emphatic winner of Aintree's listed hurdle, runner-up Naizagai finished second in a Sandown handicap off 115, and the third and fourth both finished second next time out. Overpriced Mixer is clearly a capable sort but he is not without his quirks. Furthermore, even if there is development in his jumping and attitude, it is improbable that he is anything approaching top class and there is little racecourse or pedigree evidence to suggest that he will appreciate the softer ground. Notwithstanding, Nicky Henderson's record with juveniles at Newbury is very solid, and his seven runners in this contest have produced four winners and three seconds. There may be more clues in the market insofar as where he stands in relation to his stablemate who is ridden by the owner's retainer.
Albert Van Ornum bg Gary Moore f4-1-0 FrF 29.0 (63.8) 30
Authorized (Librettist){4-n}(0.73) 2/2 Verawal 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/albert-van-ornum
Gavin Hernon supplied the division with two juveniles last term, and though with neither won in eight combined starts, they each posted RPRs of 110 and above. His latest export, Albert Van Ornum, fetched 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and is a winner of one flat race from four. That success came on his penultimate start in a €10,000 conditions race at Auch over 2650 meters where he made all to win by half a length. The standard of that form is not the highest and his ability is fairly reflected by the fact that he was well beaten next time in a Saint Cloud handicap off 30 (BHA 66). Nevertheless, there is more encouragement in his pedigree as he is a son of leading juvenile stallion Authorized, and is related to useful sorts in Verawal (2/2), Young Poli (4/3) and Nasirabad (4/3). In-form trainer Gary Moore has a fine record in this division, although his charges have reached the frame in this contest only once in five attempts. He is bred to run with credit as a juvenile hurdler and the yard does well with French flat imports, five of twelve have won in the division. However, this sort tends to be higher rated and generally improve for their debut experience.
Goodbye Stranger bg Nicky Henderson Unraced
Kapgarde (Muhtathir){14-c}(0.82) 1/0 Romaneda 2nd 3YO Newcomers Hurdle, Pau 2013
Since 2008/09, Nicky Henderson has saddled eighty-nine juvenile hurdlers, but Goodbye Stranger is set to be the first to do so as a racecourse debutant. Sourced through the same connections as the stable's highly talented We Have A Dream, Goodbye Stranger is a son of Kapgarde whose figures are superior to those of Authorized in the UK and Ireland, though somewhat inferior in France. His dam finished second in a newcomers race at Pau, and his pedigree is inundated with winning juveniles including Baby Doll (2/1), Rashcoeur (3/1), Maharina (3/1), Cavadee (3/1), Isabe (3/2) and Horse Maha (3/2). Nicky Henderson has used this race to introduce Zaynar and Style de Garde while Top Notch and Fix Le Kap also made their stable debuts at this venue. He was described as ticking the boxes in his stable tour and he is being sent straight over hurdles instead of starting in a bumper. However, while this could indicate that he has schooled well, it may also imply that he lacks pace. The fact that he also starts off in a hood does give rise to trepidation, although it should be noted that Style de Garde did the same thing when winning this race in 2017.
Iron Heart bc David Pipe f8-2-3 (79) 81 j1-0-1 (-) 75 85
Muhaarar (Dubawi){10-b}(1.13) 2/1 Red Riverman 2nd Free Handicap Hurdle (121), Chepstow 2012
Twice a winner on the flat for for Andrew Balding, including a two runner Salisbury handicap in August, Iron Heart joined David Pipe for 28,000 guineas. His hurdling debut came at Wincanton in October and given that his best flat form had been on good ground, the conditions appeared to be as good as they would get for him at this juncture. However, his jumping was untidy and he went through a couple of his hurdles which likely caused the wound on his near fore. He was hesitant going over the last two jumps and the experience will not have filled him with confidence. Iron Heart's flat ability, along with his being out of a half-sister to the useful Red Riverman, suggest that he can perform in this discipline. Notwithstanding, it was not an ideal introduction and given his trainer's propensity to bring his charges along slowly, a strong showing tomorrow would be unexpected.
Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j2-0-2 (118) 107 111
Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
Despite having a patchy profile and moderate flat form, Kentucky Hardboot was supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Kempton where he finished second to Overpriced Mixer. He was placed again next time in an open age maiden at Huntingdon but it was a regression in terms of form. Disputing the lead for much of the contest, he made mistakes at half of his hurdles and was readily outpaced turning for home before a tired leap at the last. He was eventually beaten by nearly twenty-three lengths and while the front two look like decent sorts, there was not much in behind. His jumping will need to improve and while he will appreciate the return to his own age group, he demonstrated a discernible preference for quicker ground on the flat.
Leylak bg Dan Skelton f3-0-0 (72) 69
Born To Sea (Elusive Quality){13-c}(3.00) 4/2 Lisaan 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Leopardstown 2001
Michael Halford has supplied Dan Skelton with two recruits to the division. Ashoka made a winning debut at Warwick in December 2015, and Zarib carried the red and green colours of Notalotterry when winning this contest in 2014. Leylak is the latest horse to make this particular journey after fetching €31,000 at the Goffs Autumn online sale. Making his debut in June, he was twice placed sixth in maidens at Roscommon and Limerick before a gelding operation and a three month break saw him post his strongest effort to date in a twelve furlong maiden on soft ground at the Curragh. The strength of the effort is relative as he was still beaten more than seven lengths and finished in eighth place. He did finish amongst a heap which included a pair of 80 rated animals and while it would be generous to suggest that Leylak ran to that level, there is encouragement to be drawn as it was his first run after a break and he demonstrated a straightforward attitude along with an ability to stay. Sire Born To Sea has an above average record in the discipline although the damline does want for imminent jumping talent with Lisaan (4/2) and Lalezari (5/1) being the closest examples. Leylak does lack somewhat insofar as proven flat ability and substantial breeding is concerned, but the sire is a handy fillip and his source is particularly intriguing for a trainer which already has a respectable 28.13% first time strike rate with flat recruits.
Night Bear chg Tony Carroll f6-1-2 (82) 85
Dragon Pulse (Dansant){3-l}(1.67) 2/2 Oxford Blu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Fakenham 2017
Ed Vaughan is another respectable source of juvenile hurdlers with three of his seven exports being winners. His latest offering in Night Bear fetched 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and a six race flat career ended with a rating of 82 which is the highest brought into the race. Finishing down the field in a pair of all-weather maidens last year, he returned in June to finish third at Doncaster before breaking his duck in a ten-furlong handicap at Redcar. He built on this effort when a length runner-up to subsequent Doncaster Cup fourth Revolver over a half-mile further at Haydock the following month, and was not disgraced when sixth of eight when last seen at Newmarket in August. Dragon Pulse has produced a pair of winning juveniles from thirteen and the damline does contain a couple of winning hurdlers at a lower level. Trainer Tony Carroll is more prolific on the flat and while he wins his fair share in this discipline, his juveniles at Newbury have a moderate record and high flat ratings do not necessarily translate over hurdles as only one of his twelve who achieved a flat RPR exceeding 80 was able to win.
Prince Percy bg G Moore f7-0-1 (57) 65 j2-0-1 (-) 96 101
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u}(0.39) 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Prix Achille-Fould (L), Auteuil 2007
Prince Percy made a fair impression on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July when second to Soldier On Parade. However, prior to his latest outing at Plumpton back in September, had disappointed in the interim on the flat. He was backed into favouritism at Plumpton but was pulled up between the final two flights which would make this the fifth time in his latest six starts that he has been unable to justify market support. He was keen early on and while he jumped well on his debut, was slightly slow at the third and got in close to the fifth and sixth before jumping his last flight slowly. He is obviously thought capable of better than this and there is a level over hurdles where he can be competitive. It is also possible that an eighty-seven day absence will have done him good. However, he is the lowest rated of these on the flat and will need to have improved considerably during his sabbatical if he is to pose a threat in this contest.
Splinter bg Alex Hales f10-1-3 (70) 79
Garswood (Whipper){2-i}(1.29) 0.5 Fantastic Ms Fox 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Doncaster 2020
Another recruit from the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Splinter left the Richard Fahey yard for 9,000gns. His sole win from ten starts came on his penultimate outing in a Musselburgh when finishing ahead of My Macho Man who has since been well beaten in a couple of hurdles runs. Splinter was last seen five days later when tailed off in a Catterick handicap, but his rating of 70 is justified by most of his previous runs in the sphere - all of which occurring since June. Garswood has yet to be tested as a sire in this division although his being by Dutch Art is not a brilliant indicator of potential. The damline is more encouraging as half-sister Fantastic Ms Fox won a poorly contested listed hurdle at Doncaster early this year and Come On Sunshine, who finished third in a poorly contested Wensleydale in 2014, appears at 2/2. Alex Hales enjoyed plenty of success with Hiconic over the summer, but if Splinter is to thrive, it will be in calmer waters.
Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79
Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
Starspangledbanner is not the most obvious picture of a sire of juvenile hurdlers. However, Can't Stop Now recently gave him his first winner from limited crops and his own sire Choisir had a 30% winners to runners rate and a very healthy 72.73% improvement rate in the sphere. Olympic Glory, another son of Choisir, has also made a good start in the division with a 37.5% winners to runners rate so the concept of Starspangledbanner thriving with young hurdlers is looking decreasingly far-fetched. This makes his mating with Bright Bank all the more compelling as along with producing winning juvenile Drifter and Galway Hurdle winner Thomas Hobson, she is also a half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. Tinnahalla is Bright Bank's latest hurdler and he cost current owners £105,000 before reaching the track where he finished second on four occasions for Jamie Osborne. His first start as a three year old came in September where he attempted to make all in a Lingfield novice stakes, but found subsequent triple winner Myseven too strong. Nevertheless, the form has a respectable look as the third and fifth have also been winners and a mid-seventies rating is comfortably justified. He filled the same slot again next time at Ripon and the front pair were clear of the remainder with the winner finishing third off 73 next time. He was ridden with more restraint when last seen at Nottingham, although this served to exacerbate his tendency to pull and he ultimately finished tired. Olly Murphy's record with juveniles is solidly average and his charges can win first time out. Tinnahalla's pedigree is a fascinating one for the sphere but there is a concern regarding his ability to settle and while he may benefit from the first time hood, such application is not a reliably successful intervention for the stable's runners.
Wightman bg Mick Channon f12-1-4 (69) 77
Anjaal (El Gran Senor){16-h}(1.50) 2/1 Les Arcs 8th Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2004
Mick Channon used to be a more prolific player in the division, particularly in the summer months. However, most of those formerly under his care tend to go to Sheena West or be publicly sold and he had only one runner last season. Wightman ran twelve times on the flat at distances up to an extended mile and recorded his sole victory five outings ago in a mile handicap at Salisbury off 67. Since then, he has failed to reach the frame, including twice as a favourite, and was last seen finishing eighth of twelve at Wolverhampton a month ago. Anjaal has had only one juvenile hurdler but makes little appeal as a sire in the division and the damline's most notable jumper was Les Arcs who was famous for flopping at Cartmel before becoming a top class sprinter.
Strong prospects
1. Leylak
Reasonable prospects
2. Overpriced Mixer
3. Goodbye Stranger
4. Tinnahalla
Feasible prospects
5. Albert Van Ornum
6. Night Bear
Moderate prospects
7. Kentucky Hardboot
8. Prince Percy
9. Iron Heart
10. Splinter
Negligible prospects
11. Wightman
There was a delay to the whole catching up with the reviews thing as my precarious situation saw the caravan becoming unavailable and necessitated a temporary move to Newcastle where a friend has a few weeks remaining on a tenancy for an empty flat. This is actually quite fortuitous as while I will be unable to indulge myself in the awesomeness that is Geordieland, I do have a toilet if nothing else. I will also be able to order the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX. Basically, it is a pizza box filled with mini spring rolls, chips, deep fried tofu and Japanese vegetable gyoza with salt and pepper chilli. It is the greasiest, saltiest box of pure filth to ever insult the planet. But I love it so much that I get irrationally angry just thinking about it and the thought of knocking a year off my life by gorging on same makes me more excited than any other sensual experience known to humanity. But there is still work to be caught up on so I will exercise monastic levels of temperance by foregoing the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX until all reviews are up to date. There are seventy-two performances reviewed in this current batch which leaves fifty-two outstanding. Hopefully these can be finished by Boxing Day eve eve so the previews for the festive races can be done in time.
If I have missed anything prior to the 12th of December then please let me know.
LIMERICK 1st December
Preview review
No preview was written due to circumstances. Crassus had upwards of thirty pounds in hand over his rivals with hurdling experience and while a couple of the newcomers brought flat ratings in the eighties, they each had elements detrimental to their profiles. Palm Beach is an entire and while Galileo and Joseph O'Brien have solid records in the sphere, they do underachieve somewhat when accounting for the quality of flat recruits. Zoffanien's trainer gets winning juveniles but the strike rate is a low one.
Race review
While Limerick sometimes attracts respectable sorts, this was only the second pre-Christmas juvenile held at since 2006 so there would be little to gauge from race trends. Nevertheless, the winner had posted respectable efforts in defeat and there were two newcomers rated above 80. That these three would finish clear of the remainder bodes well for the form. The pace was fairly steady which is understandable in the conditions, but it was not ran at a dawdle as the winning time was quicker than that posted in the concluding bumper.
Crassus had failed to win in twelve outings prior to this contest, but had posted respectable efforts over hurdles behind Duffle Coat and Glorious Zoff, and was in the process of running a big race when falling at Ballinrobe on his penultimate outing. That fall appeared to affect his confidence as his jumping was less assured last time out. However, the clear round had a positive effect as his jumping was as fluent as ever and he made no discernible errors. Crassus led or disputed from the outset and though he was almost joined on the run to the penultimate flight, he never looked in any real trouble and was able to assert his superiority to the tune of just over a length. He wandered a little on the run-in and did not respond delightfully to the whip so while he was able to dispatch of these rivals, he may not fare well in a battle against rivals of equal ability on a given day. Nevertheless, this was a deserved success and would probably mark a new career best. Though unlikely to trouble the best in the division, there are other races for him to win. 126
Palm Beach is the second ex-Ballydoyle runner for the yard this season. Though holding a Derby entry after the first scratchings deadline, Palm Beach did not make the racecourse until September when fourth at Tipperary. He got off the mark later that month in a heavy ground, twelve furlong maiden at Listowel. The second won a maiden next time while the third subsequently took a listed hurdle, with the trio over seven lengths clear of the remainder. A brother to St Leger third Southern France, out of a half-sister to Prix de Diane runner-up Abbatiale, Palm Beach is bred in a manner befitting his Derby entry. Nevertheless, the pedigree is not bereft of useful jumpers as the damline features the likes of Flash Ball (3/1), Amant Gris (3/2) and Triumph Hurdle third Boarding School (4/2). Although he drifted from 8/13, Palm Beach still started a shade of odds-on to make a winning hurdling debut and traded as low as 1.3 to do so. However, he was not helped by some novicey jumping as he got in close to several of his hurdles as well as steadying into the fourth. He was green in the closing stages, but this was due to his inexperience rather than any obvious recalcitrance and was simply beaten by a horse with a better idea about the game. Palm Beach emerges with plenty of credit and has the size and scope to develop into a useful type in due course. 124
Zoffanien was available at 16/1 in the morning, but went off at 6/1. While this movement has the hallmarks of a plunge, there was no reason to be as large as he was as his flat form and pedigree afforded him credible prospects. He won two of his starts for Yan Durepaire, including a 2300 metre good ground Dax handicap off an equivalent mark of 77 back in July. Two of Yan Durepaire's four exports to the division have been winners and Zoffanien, after fetching €60,000 at the Arqana Deauville Summer Sale, is the most expensive. He is also the most expensive purchase in the division for a trainer who gets winners but has a poor strike rate. After getting in close to the first, Zoffanien was ridden into the second with satisfactory results and from there, he posted a nice round of jumping for a newcomer. Initially held up in midfield, he joined the leaders with three furlongs to race and although he never posed a severe threat on the front pair, he beaten to second by less than three lengths and was nineteen lengths clear of the third. He was fairly keen early on which is fair given his layoff and it did not take too long for him to settle. This was a nice introduction to the discipline and he is capable of winning an ordinary contest. 121
The Truant raced nine times on the flat for Jessica Harrington, placing once in a Dundalk maiden over an extended ten furlongs back in February. Though initially rated 72, his mark dropped to 66 after three lesser handicap runs and his last run on the flat came the middle of July. He since left Jessica Harrington to join a yard which is less prolific in the division. Nevertheless, his being by Mastercraftsman is a big positive in the sphere. Held up in the opening stages, The Truant got in close to the first and third flights. Nevertheless, he jumped cleanly thereafter and was able to progress along the back without getting quite close enough to challenge. While lacking the class of the front three, it was not a debut without promise and there appears to be little reason why he can not do as well over hurdles as he had done on the flat. 112
Saga Malta lacked fluency on her debut and fell at the third on her second appearance. Apart from being untidy at the first two, she put in a fair round and though beaten twenty-six lengths, put up a career best effort here. She has yet to show herself capable of winning an ordinary contest and will have better chances in handicap company. 92
Flylikeaneagle quartered in price from an 100/1 available in the morning but was unable to justify the support. He was slow at the first and got in close to the fourth but was otherwise a reasonable jumper. This was no better or worse than his Fairyhouse seventh from the previous month and he would have to improve before being of interest in ordinary company. 89
Sweet Will had been well beaten on his first two starts over hurdles and it was the same story here. His jumping was acceptable safe for a couple of untidy leaps but he is another who failed to progress from the same Fairyhouse contest. 88
Willywampus began his season with a rating of 80 but had ran nowhere near to that mark in a pair of races during June. He was keen early and led briefly passing the stands before fading with half a mile left to run. His jumping was fine and he might strip fitter for the outing. 80
Southwood came into the race following a career best effort on the flat when fourth in a seven furlong handicap at the Curragh. That was off just 45 there is little reason on breeding to suspect significant improvement for the introduction of hurdles. Save for some untidy hurdling in the back, he did not jump too poorly and was still in fifth entering the straight. However, through lack of class and stamina, he had little left to offer. 67
Dazzling Darren put a lot of air between himself and the third hurdle, but otherwise posted a characteristically clear round. However, disappointment is becoming another characteristic as this made it three successive races where he finished tailed off. 73
French Asset beat only one home on a hurdles debut at in October marked by greenness. He once again lacked fluency and finished tailed off here. He has not come remotely close to matching the best of his flat ability thus far. 0
MARKET RASEN 3rd December
Preview review
The race was seen as one where the bulk of the field had questions to answer, and few had solid chances. As such, the relative prospects of the participants were assigned with little confidence. The strong prospect had actually bled on its previous outing although this was mitigated by a month lay-off and despite finishing seventh, was not far from its best here. The winner was given reasonable prospects and trepidation was based on the jumping errors in previous races potentially diminishing the chances afforded by her flat superiority. The remainder of the field over and underperformed to varying degrees but as the first eight were covered by less than twenty lengths, it was not a race which could be definitively assessed to a satisfactory standard.
Race review
While the standard of form was not abysmal, none of these brought solid profiles and the most accomplished had questions to answer. The first three were covered by just over five lengths and the first eight by just under nineteen which is considerably the tightest on a card where the field finished strung out in every other race. The pace was fine and the winning time was comparable with the Class 4 handicap an hour later. The field jumped reasonably and finished in a justifiable order, although they could have finished in any order and it would have been justifiable. The winner is likely the best horse in the race but the form does not look trustworthy.
Volkovka started favourite to win her UK/hurdling debut at Fakenham in late October, but poor jumping and a tendency to hang preceded her pulling up. She was in contention to finish third next time at Leicester in a first time hood, but a bad blunder at the last saw her finish fifth. The best of her flat form gave her a strong chance in this week race and she was able to take advantage with her best round of jumping to date. She got in slightly close to the penultimate flight but this did not cost her any momentum. Held up for much of the contest, she made headway on the long turn for home and was not hard ridden to run out a rather comfortable winner after getting a clear run a furlong from home. The standard of this form is nothing special, but she had the strongest form in the line up and having won a shade cosily, can improve further from here. 99
Shalott did not make the racecourse for Joseph O'Brien, and would start his career in junior bumpers. It is not a sphere which habitually produces successful juvenile hurdlers, particularly not first-time-out. Nevertheless, Shalott had achieved reasonable form in two outings, including a two-length third on his latest start. Being by Camelot and related to numerous winning jumpers, Shalott has a reasonable pedigree for his new vocation and he was not disgraced on his debut. Tracking the leaders, he jumped well for a debutant and moved into the lead at the penultimate flight. His first error came at an untimely moment as he steadied going into the last and was unable to get high at the flight. Though this did cost him momentum, he was back into his stride with a furlong left to run and was beaten by the winner on merit. While he would need to improve to be competitive in anything but a poor race, this was a fine introduction overall. 105
Yulong Magicreef followed a compelling racecourse debut at the Curragh in June with four increasingly disappointing efforts for Jessica Harrington and was beaten fifty lengths on his hurdling debut at Wetherby. There was little cause for complaint insofar as his jumping was concerned and he put up another good round here. Held up in midfield, he joined the vanguard in the straight, but was unable to put his stamp on the race and was outpaced after the last. While a huge improvement on his debut, it was not the most substantial contest and the performance was still someway short of his better flat form. 101
Asharann was a winner in France for Jean-Clause Rouget, but his inability to settle saw his mark drop two and a half kilos and was a factor in two tailed off efforts in the UK. His jumping has always been reasonable however and apart from a blunder at the fifth, put in another clear round here. He still took a keen grip in the early stages, but this was the best he had settled to date and while he never threatened the leaders, he was able to plug on for fourth past beaten horses, finishing just over seven lengths behind the winner. His allotted mark of 104 is harsh based on what he has achieved thus far over hurdles. Nevertheless, it might not be completely beyond his scope if he learns to settle better. 99
Shentri won twice over jumps in France, but was beaten out of sight by Nassalam on his UK debut at Fontwell. He jumped alright here and after racing prominently, was still in contention approaching the last. However, he would fade shortly afterwards and lost fourth on the run-in. He has been dropped eleven pounds after just two starts for Dan Skelton and given that this was an improvement on his Fontwell performance, he would not be in terminal decline. The way he faded and the fact that he was wearing a tongue-tie could be indicative of breathing issues. Nevertheless, his French form is not completely hollow and if the possible issues are resolved, or he simply acclimatises to his new surroundings, he can leave this form behind. 96
Fiscal Prudence had shown some promise in a pair of flat outings for Jim Bolger last year, but pulled too hard on his return at Warwick and was beaten a long way from home. He did not settle much better here but was still in contention turning for home before his exertions took their toll in the straight. He is not without ability, but the first-time hood did not have a sufficient effect on his exuberance and does not make a huge amount of appeal for the time being. 89
Park Lane Dancer did not have the strongest form coming into the race, but looked a reasonably safe conveyance insofar as his jumping and travelling were concerned. However, he put up his poorest round of jumping to date having steadied into the third and sixth while being untidy at the fourth and fifth. He was outclassed by his rivals and while his allotted mark of 93 is low, it is not obviously generous. 89
Sure I'm Your Man made a promising hurdling debut at Bangor, but ran no sort of race just days before this contest at Leicester where he bled through the nose. He was not unfancied in the market, but he never left the rear of the field, was close into the first and was well beaten when untidy over the last. A break might see him run to better effect, but he will clearly have questions to answer on his return. 87
Carriesmatic was third on her final flat outing at Redcar, but that came in a moderate claimer and her official rating of 47 is a fair reflection of her abilities. Nevertheless, she received some each-way support prior to the off but lacked fluency and ultimately finished tailed off. 64
SANDOWN 5th December
Preview review
That the preview was written at the tail-end of an all-nighter could be used as an excuse for any errors made, but I like to imagine that such an opportunity to miss out on some masochism is beneath me. The bulk of the Paros was given strong prospects not only for his solid looking French form, but also for the first-time-out strike rate of Nicky Henderson's French recruits. Though given that it is foolhardy to base a horse's merit on a solitary performance, his estimation will not have been made with the utmost confidence. Elham Valley was given only moderate prospects, based on his attracting no interest after winning a seller, and being beaten by double digit distances on soft ground in two subsequent outings. Though he did exceed expectations, it was an unexposed field he defeated and he also attracted market support. Phoenix Aquilus did not jump as well as on his debut but the form of his Chepstow has generally looked weaker in hindsight. The remainder of the field did not finish out of line.
Race review
Having headed the Triumph markets during the summer, Paros drew the most attention in this field of unexposed hurdlers. However, he came nowhere near matching expectations and his disappointing effort left the race open for a horse whose latest flat win came in a seller. The pace was fairly tepid and the standard of jumping was below what could be expected for the quality of horse on show. A few of the runners were keen early but most settled once passing the stands. The field finished tighter than any other on the card and the winning time was over six seconds slower than the feature handicap and nearly two slower than the steadily ran novices' handicap. While there is nothing too irrational about the finishing order on the day, it looks unlikely to be faithfully replicated in the future.
Elham Valley came into the race with a respectable flat rating, although his best recent performance came when winning a seller by thirteen lengths at Goodwood in August. Since then, he was beaten in a pair of soft ground handicaps by eleven and seventeen lengths for John Gallagher. In Fergal O'Brien, he joined a yard with a fine record in the division this season and was the subject of sustained support throughout the day and in the ring. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers, as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. On the face of it, this was not a bad performance and he can improve further should he tidy up his jumping. However, as the most experienced runner in the field, he is also the most exposed and though he won a shade cosily, he would not have the scope of some of his rivals. 116
Hudson de Grugy is related to a host of decent winners, most notably the stable's hugely talented Sire de Grugy, and this is a race in which Gary Moore has enjoyed much success. However, Hudson de Grugy more than doubled in price in the ring from an opening 15/2 to 16/1 at flagfall. Prominent from the outset, he was encouraged into his flights which appeared to be a necessity as an absence of instruction at the fifth saw him get it completely wrong. He was still in contention approaching the last, but a blunder at the final obstacle gave the winner an advantage that proved critical. Hudson de Grugy was still able to maintain his lead over the remaining rivals and he emerges from the contest with plenty of potential. A decent sized horse whose only experience had been in AQPS bumpers, he should improve for the outing and having already tasted victory, an ordinary contest should be within his capacity. 113
Yggdrasil was making his racecourse debut after missing an intended engagement at Exeter a fortnight earlier. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third and is another who emerges from the race with plenty of potential. 109
Paros had led the Triumph Hurdle markets over the summer by virtue of a win in a Dieppe hurdle, and his joining the Nicky Henderson yard. As they faced the starter, Paros was still the shortest in the Triumph markets for his yard, and had been the subject of a move which took his price from 11/10 to an SP of 4/7. His hurdling lacked some confidence in the early stages of his Dieppe debut and he was slow going over the first here. There were also mistakes at the fifth and sixth but he was also able to outjump his opponents in numerous instances. He had taken a keen hold and was still pulling entering the straight. His jump at the penultimate flight was as good as any in the race but he was unable to get a clear run and once he was in the open, he had no response to his rider's urgings. The record of Nicky Henderson hurdles imports beaten first time does not make for encouraging reading as of the twelve, only Grandouet finished in the first ten in a Grade One that season and Monte Cristo was the only other subsequent winner. There is still time for Paros to make good on his reputation, but with his reputation being based on a sole outing, he emerges from this contest with more doubt than confidence. 113
The Worthy Brat won a junior bumper on his racecourse debut at Exeter in October and ran into third on his hurdles debut at the same venue the following month. He was held up on that occasion and while he jumped slowly at times, was able to get within seven lengths of Monmiral at the finish. Ridden more prominently here, he made mistakes at all of his hurdles, coming largely in the form of jumping too big, but also steadying into some flights and getting too close. Consequently, this performance can only be regarded as regressive and while a change in tactics might enable him to leave this behind, his jumping leaves plenty to be desired. It is possible that the heavier ground impacted his performance as while his hurdling debut came on soft, his win came on good to firm. 102
Phoenix Aquilus was twice placed on the flat and though he was no match for Hell Red on his hurdling debut at Chepstow, he was still best of the rest. However, despite a gelding operation and a break of nearly two months, he was unable to build on that effort and though he was quick at a few of his jumps, he was big at the same time which was not the most efficient way of going about things. There were also a couple of occasions where he was generally untidy and though he was not beaten too far, he did begin to tire in the final furlong. Phoenix Aquilus is capable of better, but he will need to become a slicker jumper if he is to run to his merits. 101
Royaume Uni won one of his three starts on the flat for Andre Fabre and he ran to marks approaching 80. He is also from the family of fair juvenile Nordano and has joined a yard which enjoys success in the division. However, there was a decided lack of fluency on his hurdling debut and was a beaten horse by the distance. Flat imports for the yard tend to improve for their debut outings which will be necessary given the substandard nature of this performance. 90
Masterdream ran four times on the flat for John Oxx without winning, before leaving the yard for 56,000 guineas. He did not do anything to justify an official mark of 73, and while Tim Vaughan used to be a prolific trainer in the division, this has not been the case in recent years. Masterdream lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles, and was the first horse beaten before finishing completely tailed off. He is probably better than this but he has something to prove for the time being. 40
Naizagai 05/12/2020 Sandown 2m Novices' Handicap Hurdle (115)
Naizagai made a winning start to his hurdling career when making all to be a decisive winner at Cartmel back in August. He disappointed after a seventy day lay-off at Uttoxeter where he jumped poorly and had a tendency to hang. He was better next time when second at Ludlow where neither of those traits were prevalent, although he was slightly keen in the early stages. This keenness was exaggerated here as he was very headstrong held up off a slow pace and pulled himself into third passing the stands. Apart from slightly skewing at the second and completely missing the penultimate flight, he put in a decent round of jumping and was the last challenger to come off the bridle. He was no match for the winner and though three lengths clear of the remainder, he did finish a tired horse. This was not a poor performance though and a return to better ground and perhaps a stronger pace should see him continue to be competitive. 112
AINTREE 5th December
Preview review
The omission of four hurdles had some bearing on the result, but would not account for the discrepancies in the preview. Talking About You was given feasible prospects but was still a glaring underestimation. Her prospects were nullified due to a perceived distaste for the ground which was borne from her failure to see out races earlier in her already long career. However, the wind operation she undertook in October not only improved her stamina but also her overall ability. Her Indoors ran better than anticipated but was helped by the diminished jumping test. Hiconic ran a race which was too bad to be true although the odd underperformance might be an essence of her profile. Army Of One's prospects were based more on connections and potential than proven ability.
Race review
The race featured the strongest juvenile fillies to have ran to date and though few of these look particularly high class, it was still a reasonable renewal. The two flights on the straight were omitted due to the low sun just before the off which helped some horses more than others. It perhaps made little difference to the winner but third placed Megan would likely have finished closer as she jumped the best of the leading trio and was outpaced on the long run-in. Although Hiconic and Scholastic were both very disappointing, the front three had reason enough to be prominent and were a long way clear of the remainder. Nevertheless, the complexion of the race is such that the race can only really be observed as its own entity.
Talking About You carried herself credibly from a form perspective on her first three starts in the division before a dip prompted wind surgery and a break. Her return at Fakenham was not without promise and her latest outing saw her post a career best with a comprehensive all-the-way success at Ludlow. Though ridden down to the start rather than being mounted at the last possible opportunity, she was able to improve even further here as she ran out a seven-and-a-half-length winner from a pair of respectable sorts. The wind surgery has seen her reach new heights and that she went to the start in a conventional manner is indicative of a mental maturity. Her jumping was not as fluent as at Ludlow as she got in slightly close to a few of these and she also dived at the third. The omission of four more flights along with the ignorable performances of Scholastic and especially Hiconic, twice her superior previously, simplified her task. Nevertheless, it was still a deserved success and while not worth an official rating of 132, was gallant performance in its own right. Placing her will become more difficult from here, but she would not be out of place in the Listed Fillies' Juvenile at Doncaster next month. 124
Her Indoors had this race as a target before she even ran on the flat this season, let alone when she registered her first success in September. Though representing a yard with a strong record in this contest, her SP was three times her morning price of 6/1. She was not the fluent jumper on her hurdling debut as she needed encouragement into her hurdles and got in close to the second and fourth while landing steeply at the last. She was no match for the winner but was able to out-speed Megan from the elbow. The diminished jumping test certainly worked in her favour and it is unlikely that she would have beaten Megan with a full compliment of hurdles to jump. Nevertheless, she would still have been a long way clear of the remainder and is entitled to become more proficient with experience. 117
Megan went into her hurdling debut at Leicester as something of an unknown quantity and given the facile nature of her victory, emerged with her ability remaining a mystery. Her round at Leicester began in a novicey fashion, but she soon developed a neat rhythm as the race progressed and apart from a slow jump when baulked at the fourth here, put in a very tidy round. She wanted for pace in the closing stages of this contest and there is every reason to assume that the lack of hurdles was detrimental to her finishing position. As such, she was unable to build on her debut outing but while she perhaps would not have had enough to beat the winner on the day, she comes out of this race with the most encouraging profile. 114
High Moor Flyer exceeded anything she achieved on the flat when second to Megan on her jumps debut at Leicester despite sweating freely and pulling hard. Perspiration was a recurring theme here but she settled somewhat better and jumped her first four hurdles well before missing the last. She was outclassed as per expectations but was not entirely disgraced as she was still clear of the strung out remainder. She can be seen to better effect in calmer waters. 90
Bellatrixsa was the most expensive juvenile publicly sold in-training thus far when fetching 80,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale following a five race career with Michael Dods. A winner of one race and bringing a rating of 77 into this contest, she was the subject of strong and sustained market support. Available at 18/1 in the morning, she opened at 8/1 in the ring before being sent off at 9/2. However, while she settled nicely enough and made her only discernible error at the last when getting in close and going slightly left, she was unable to keep tabs on the leading trio at the head of the straight and was allowed to come home in her own time. Better was clearly expected and there was little concern over her jumping so while this was a disappointing effort at face value, it was not one devoid of promise. 82
See The Eagle Fly had the winner almost seventy lengths behind her when making a winning hurdles introduction at Fontwell in early October. She did not look entirely straightforward on that occasion and quickly downed tools when failing to justify favouritism next time at Leicester. Though still travelling kindly on the approach to the last, she wandered into that obstacle and soon lost interest before tailing off. She was a consistent enough type on the flat so this succession of lacklustre performances gives rise to concern and there are questions to answer regarding her enthusiasm at this juncture. 69
Army Of One achieved only moderate success in Germany, but was the chosen representative of a yard with a good record in this contest and there was encouraging signs in her pedigree. However, she lacked confidence and make errors at all of these jumps and the distress signals were out before they turned into the straight. While she will be better assessed after another run or two, there was little assurance to be gained from this outing. 34
Lightning Blue was beaten thirty-five lengths on her hurdling debut at Wetherby and drifted from 125/1 to 250/1 before the off here. It would probably be fair to ignore this run as she was baulked on a couple of occasions, although there is still no cause for optimism going forward. 0
Ten Thousand Stars was not disgraced on her first two starts over hurdles, but was still a fair way off most of these on form. Returning after a seventy-two day absence, she jumped untidily, lost her position very quickly before reaching half-way and finished hopelessly tailed off. 0
Hiconic came into this race as the most accomplished female juvenile of the season and that mantle has not been surpassed. However, though she led from the outset, she was already getting niggled along approaching the second where she was headed. From there, she was unable to regain the bit and weakened rapidly after an uncharacteristic mistake at two-out before pulling up after the last. This was a run too bad to be true and her trainer put this showing down to the effects of a long season. There is credence to this perspective although it is also worth noting that there have been flashes of impertinence and she may be given to inconsistency. She ought to be afforded some well-earned rest and hopefully, she can return in the same kind of form which saw her complete a four-timer and finish second in the Wensleydale. 0
Scholastic put a troubling hurdles debut behind her to collect three places and a deserved win over hurdles. However, after hopping over the first, she essentially pulled herself up after passing the stands. Given that she subsequently posted a new career best effort on the flat, it is unlikely there were any physiological factors behind this exhibition. Though she has proven her aptitude for hurdling following an inauspicious start, she may have to do so once again in order to regain trust in light of this showing. 0
CORK 6th December
Preview review
There was no preview for this race and little pertinent written on the newcomers elsewhere. Those with experience finished in keeping with their ratings earned in previous races.
Race review
This contest had been held over the four previous seasons and while none of its graduates found success at Grade One level, it has been used to introduce a couple of useful sorts in Dinaria des Obeaux and 2019 Fred Winter hero Band Of Outlaws. Those with hurdling experience were headed by Punchestown flop Flying Scotsman who finished behind a pair of flat recruits rated 78 and 80. The pace was steady and the winning time was comparable to those set in the maiden hurdles, and quicker than that achieved 0-117 handicap later on the card. The standard of jumping was reasonable from the front two who finished clear of a strung out field and the finishing order was perfectly feasible. Though the quality of the contest is little stronger than average, the form looks solid at this stage.
Autumn Evening first appeared on the racecourse in late August and followed a pair of reasonable outings with two successive third place finishes at Navan and the Curragh in the Autumn. At Navan, he was just over three lengths behind stablemate Ilmig who was second at Punchestown on his hurdles debut, and seven lengths ahead of subsequent chase winner Bridge Native. He ran to a similar standard on his latest flat start when behind a pair of 78 rated animals and upwards of eight lengths clear of the remainder including Fairyhouse winner Peckham Springs. By Tamayuz, who has produced minor winning juveniles, and representing a yard with solid figures in the sphere, Autumn Evening was sent off a well backed 5/4 favourite and obliged in pleasing fashion. A solid stamp of a horse, he was always racing prominently and jumped nicely for the most part. He got in slightly close to three out but travelled smoothly to the penultimate flight where he jumped into a slender lead. He cruised towards the final flight but an untidy leap saw him skid on landing and lose some momentum. Nevertheless, he only needed a hands and heels ride to regain superiority and carried a length advantage over the line. The bare form is nothing out of the ordinary but it was a comfortable success on the back of a taking display of jumping. It remains to be seen how far he can progress but he will be of interest wherever he appears next which could potentially be the Grade Two at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. 121
Curious Bride had ran nine times on the flat but while initially rated 71, had began to look disappointing during the summer. However, she took advantage of a drop to 64 and ran out an easy winner of a twelve furlong Cork handicap in mid September. The runner-up has since won three times and Curious Bride was not disgraced on either of her subsequent outings at Dundalk where fifth on each occasion. The rating of 80 was the joint highest in this contest when counting her sex allowance and trainer Noel Meade won this contest in 2017. Her sire was some cause for concern as none of his thirteen juvenile hurdlers have won a race from forty-three attempts. Nevertheless, she was backed in the ring from 11/4 to 2/1 at the off and apart from reaching at the fourth and getting close to the fifth, jumped well on her debut. Another who raced prominently, she was not the quickest getting away from the last and while she put her head down on the run-in, she was unable to match the winner and was slightly worried out of the battle by her more imposing rival. Notwithstanding, she was eleven lengths clear of the remainder and this progressive filly likely has more to offer in the coming weeks and months. 113
Flying Scotsman has a flat rating of 87 courtesy of a quickfire double at the Galway Festival. He was unfancied ahead of his jumps debut at Punchestown where he finished fifth and was beaten by over thirty lengths. His chances there were heavily compromised by forcing to check at the second, but this poor round was entirely of his own doing. Sweating up beforehand, he approached his hurdles with little enthusiasm and was either close to, or untidy over most of the flights. Held up in midfield, he never landed a blow on the leaders, but he did pass beaten rivals in the straight and was clear of the remainder. More assured jumping is fundamental to his future prospects and a sounder surface will also be helpful. Nevertheless, he would not be written off entirely and given that the yard previously won this race with Band Of Outlaws, Flying Scotsman could be of interest if he is sent handicapping. 109
Ahaziah has a flat rating of just 37 after ten starts in that sphere and jumped poorly on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in the beginning of November. He was keen in the early stages here but apart from being slightly big over the first and hopping over the last, put up a better round of jumping. He was still in contention going two out and while he faded thereafter, posted a performance which surpassed his flat exploits. Ahaziah is going in the right direction but would still need to find further improvement before he is competitive in ordinary company. 102
Vischio was placed three times on the flat for Jonathan Portman and was claimed out of that yard for £6,000 when second in a Lingfield selling handicap in mid-September. Runner-up on his stable debut at Leopardstown, he was tailed off at Galway ahead of his hurdles bow here. Held up in the rear, his jumping lacked fluency and though he made some headway towards the end of the back straight, he faded to finish a twenty length fifth. There is little immediate enthusiasm to be garnered from this performance. 94
Townes finished closer to last than first during his five flat outings for Richard John O'Brien, and was not well fancied to reveal himself on his hurdling debut. He wandered slightly on the approach to the first and pecked on landing at the fourth, but otherwise jumped well enough to maintain a prominent position and jumped three out with a marginal advantage. However, he was quickly outpaced and faded tamely shortly thereafter. This was not an effort devoid of promise but he likely lacks sufficient class to make any impact in open company. 89
Stage Power collected only duck eggs on the flat and jumped poorly on his hurdles bow at Punchestown before beating home only one finisher. His round started with novicey jumps but while it improved down the back, he was still only able to beat one finisher home. This was a career best effort but there are no signs of him being competitive any time soon. 70
Movie King was no better than moderate on the flat and he lacked fluency without getting involved on his hurdles debut at Punchestown. Once again held up in the rear, he got in close to a couple and was slow over three out before being the last to finish. 67
Poetica raced six times on the flat for Mark Johnson with her best performance coming when just over two lengths fourth in a Chelmsford handicap off 58. She since left for £3,500 guineas at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale and was unfancied ahead of her hurdling debut. Following a mistake at the first, her saddle slipped at the second flight of hurdles and an error strewn round was concluded with her unseating three from home. 0
MUSSELBURGH 7th December
Preview review
No preview was written for this race but those with experience did finish in accordance to their ratings.
Race review
Held four times since 2012, this Class 2 contest is more valuable than most in the north outside of pattern company, although the 2016 renewal perhaps had the most impact as the front two filled the same places in the listed Scottish Triumph trial the same season. This year's edition featured two previous winners and a pair of newcomers rated in the seventies. The pace set was a solid one and the time was quicker than both the Novice Hurdle and the concluding bumper. It was a dominant display from the winner and the field were strung out in behind. They also finished in a plausible order although the standard of jumping was somewhat lacking.
Fiveandtwenty had ten starts on the flat for Mark Johnston, including three handicap wins which came in the space of four races between July and September. The sequence began with wins over twelve furlongs at Ripon and Catterick on good and heavy ground, and was rounded off with a fourteen furlong success at Musselburgh on good to firm off a mark of 75. She was last seen finishing weakly at Bath and Nottingham before joining Donald McCain. The three horses who previously made the journey between the yards failed to score in the division. Nevertheless, this season has seen the beginning Middleham Park Racing utilising the services of the master of Bankhouse and it has paid off handsomely thus far with first Genever Dragon, and now Fiveandtwenty making winning starts to their second careers. The latter was slightly keen early, but put her front running style to good effect here and was very neat over her hurdles in the early stages. Her jumping began to unravel as she began to tire late on, but her initial fluency had her rivals in trouble a long way out and she came home unchallenged. It is worth bearing in mind that the jumping in behind was not of the highest standard and that she was a tired horse in the concluding phases. Nevertheless, this was a visually impressive debut and there was much to like about her attitude and aptitude. 119
Breguet Boy won three times on the flat and made a winning jumps debut over this course and distance some five weeks earlier on good ground. He had a tendency to look around on the flat which followed him to his hurdles bow. It did not have an averse first time out, but while he was more focussed on this occasion, his round was littered with untidy jumps. Similar tactics of tracking the leader were employed but he was outpaced turning for home and only lost ground along the straight. This was not as good a performance as his debut, but he was still upwards of seven lengths clear on the remainder and if returned to conditions which suit his speed, would still be worthy of respect. Furthermore, his handicap mark of 114 is not unduly harsh should connections opt to go down that route. 105
Machios opened at larger odds than stablemate Breguet Boy, but was backed to within a third of a point at the off. Prior to fetching 25,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Machios had an eight race career for Andrew Balding which included a win and two placings with his best form came on softer ground. He had a tendency to pull hard which was also the case in the early stages here before settling to a degree entering the back straight. He was untidy at a few flights and not the quickest getting away, but his jumping had more reasonable moments than otherwise. Making headway into third five furlongs from home, he could not match the front two for speed. Nevertheless, he was able to stay on and increase his gap over the remainder. He was not disgraced on his introduction to the sphere and is likely to come on for the experience. Particularly if faced with sterner conditions. 93
Jorgie was rated just 51 ahead of his hurdles debut at Perth, but he ran out a decisive winner and would have won by further but for a lack of concentration costing him ground and momentum over the final two hurdles. However, it was a race which rather fell for him as his opponents were either poor or underperformed. He was subsequently offered at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale in October but only went to £2,000 and was retained by his owners. Since then, he posted a career best on the flat when second in a Southwell handicap off 48. A market drifter beforehand, he was held up in midfield where a lack of confidence over the early jumps translated to an error at the fourth which preceded a blunder at the next which nearly saw him capitulate. He was slow over the remainder of his hurdles and was beaten by nearly fifty lengths in the end. Jorgie may be difficult to place for the foreseeable as his best form leaves him struggling under a penalty in ordinary company and his official mark of 113 looks absurdly harsh. 84
My Macho Man won on his first start on the flat and his final start in that sphere came with a second at this venue in selling company. Subsequently sold for 7,000 guineas, his hurdling debut came in an introductory hurdle at Newcastle where reticent jumping resulted in a laboured performance. He was no more assured here and after losing third leaving the back, would only continue to lose ground. 64
Sergeant won twice in Germany for Christian Von Der Recke although he likely achieved nothing of note in doing so. Nevertheless, Herr Von Der Recke has supplied Milton Harris with useful sorts in the past and Sergeant was not unfancied ahead of his UK debut at Leicester. There he pulled hard early and lacked assurance in his jumping before being beaten thirty-five lengths in what looked a poor race. He had reportedly lost a shoe during that contest but had no such excuses in a first time hood here. Once again racing keenly and lacking fluency, he rapidly lost his prominent position leaving the back and was pulled up before three out. 0
Monash was well beaten on his introduction to hurdles at Catterick, but it was not a showing without promise and had traded as low as 2.7 in-running. However, he was keen early and jumped sloppily to the right over the first two before getting detached with a good mile left to be covered. 0
FONTWELL 8th December
Preview review
The withdrawal of Hacker Des Places rendered this race a one horse contest. The runner-up had negligible prospects but was still beaten by almost fifty lengths and the remainder of the field all had either poor form or weak profiles.
Race review
Nassalam won in the manner befitting a 1/12 shot and the performances of those in behind can not be assessed generously. Particularly as the runner up was tailed off and detached in the back straight yet was able to pass some very tired horses in the straight. Put into context, the three other finishers ran their final furlongs in slower times than those posted by those in the three mile two novices' handicap chase later on the card. The early pace was quicker than that set in the concluding handicap hurdle, yet was still considerably slower than the one set in the race Nassalam won on his debut through heavy ground.
Nassalam conducted a demolition job on his first run for Gary Moore over this course and distance, and did a similar thing here. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his contraction in the Triumph markets is not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. A step up in class is due and a better assessment of his abilities might be made in the upcoming Finale Hurdle. 125
Zellerate finished tailed off in a bumper on his racecourse debut and his hurdling debut saw him make numerous mistakes in the rear before pulling up. His jumping was slightly better but he was far from error free and was already getting reminders at the third. Zellerate was tailed off and detached at the end of the back, but was able to pass his tired rivals to grab second on the line. The first time blinkers may have assisted his performance, but it was still substandard by any general measure. 69
Ranco won his last two starts on the flat in France and was claimed for €20,001 ahead of a nondescript hurdles debut at Southwell. He stepped up somewhat next time at Wetherby where sloppy jumping bookmarked a few reasonable leaps before finishing a twenty length seventh. His hurdling was better again even though he was not helped by Nassalam jumping in front of him on each occasion. Ranco appeared to have won the race for second but for being caught on the line, but he still would have finished tired and well beaten in any case. Based on his flat form, his new rating of 102 gives him better prospects going forward. 66
Sans Logique was not disgraced on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield back in August, but he was poor and erratic on his next two outings and his mark of 106 looked harsh. Wind surgery and a break of sixty-seven days preceded another poor showing where his jumping was often untidy. Nevertheless, he has dropped to 102 and might begin to find his feet following his surgery. 58
Eagle's First had Richard Johnson in the saddle for her racecourse bow in a Warwick bumper, but weakened from a prominent position and beat only two rivals home. Less was expected for her hurdles debut and she made several mistakes including at the fourth where she blundered very badly and lost any real impetus. She kept in touch to some extent up the back straight but would finish hopelessly tailed off. If being generous, it is possible to forgive this outing. Nevertheless, she still needs to demonstrate more tangible ability. 31
Hipster Macalo started slowly, jumped slowly and was soon detached on his jumping bow at Uttoxeter in August. Following a break of over a hundred days, he managed to get into a prominent position, but would find himself detached by the third and was pulled up before the fifth. 0
Jan Wellens 08/12/2020 Fontwell 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (97)
Jan Wellens won on the flat, but has performed only moderately thus far over hurdles. His best effort in the sphere came last time where he jumped better than he had previously to finish a sixteen length fifth at Huntingdon. First time blinkers were applied for his handicap debut where he ran off a mark of 97. However, without anything too catastrophic, he made errors at almost every hurdle here and while he managed to briefly challenge for fourth turning in, he failed to make further inroads and dropped back to an eight length sixth on the line. His new mark of 94 is more feasible and if his jumping improves then he can find himself more competitive. Possibly when less demands are placed on his questionable stamina. 91
WARWICK 10th December
Preview review
Hope You Do was given strong prospects on the basis of being a well bred winner of his sole AQPS bumper representing good connections. However, despite being sent off a steady favourite, he ran a rather tepid race with no obvious excuses. The front two were third and fourth on the prospects list, each deemed to have reasonable profiles, and the third and fourth each had reasonable prospects. Dreaming Blue's flat form entitled him to run better than he did, although his greenness translated to a moderate round of jumping.
Race review
Good yards were represented in this race, but with the exception of the favourite, few had especially substantial profiles. With Hope You Do failing to match expectations, the finish was fought out between one horse who finished midfield on his sole run in France, and another with a BHA rating of 63. Nevertheless, they both jumped reasonably well and finished clear of a well-bred racecourse debutant. The early pace was a steady one but apart from some bunching at the first, there were no real hard luck stories and the field finished in a plausible order. While unlikely to have an impact on the season's better races, the form looks solid for the level.
Hamilton Dici has been trained and prepared by the Williams' yard, but was chosen to accompany Monsieur Lecoq to Compiegne for his hurdles debut at the beginning of November. There, an early prominent position was forfeited due to slow and skewed jumping. His round saw little improvement and he never re-emerged from a midfield position. He attracted significant support in the markets for his UK bow, moving from a morning price of 12/1 to 11/2 at flagfall, and obliged by a head after a spirited battle. Sent straight into the lead from the outset, he maintained a lead of a length or so before jumping the last in tandem with his the runner-up. He landed with better momentum and was able to repel the sustained challenge to the line. He jumped much better than he had at Compiegne without being particularly efficient as he was predisposed to giving his hurdles excessive air. Notwithstanding, he created a decent impression with his honest nature and though he looks more a long term prospect, he can still progress during this campaign. 108
Ambassador ended his first spell on the flat with an official mark of 61 and was not particularly well bred for his new vocation. Nevertheless, he has joined a yard with a good record in the division, including with lower rated animals. Tracking the leader throughout, he was slightly baulked at the first and took a fairly keen hold early on. Though he was slightly big over the fourth and clumsy at the penultimate flight, he posted a respectable round of hurdling. He did little wrong when outjumped at the last or outbattled in the closing stages and has set a nice foundation for his new career. Ambassador is unlikely to threaten the upper reaches of the division but would be entitled to be competitive in ordinary company. 107
Balkardy was seeing a racecourse for the first time and was not well fancied in the market beforehand. Closely related to top French juvenile Roll On Has, this son of Balko has the credentials to fare well in this division and he was not disgraced on his debut. Held up in rear, his first three jumps were big and untidy but he was soon jumping with more fluency. Though he never got close to the leaders, he stayed on well up the straight to finish a clear third. An archetypically promising debut performance, Balkardy has the scope to achieve success in the long run while having credible prospects for the near future. 99
Lunar Bounty is bred to make a national hunt horse and jumped well on her hurdling debut at Leicester before being outpaced in the straight. Ridden conservatively here, she posted a clean round of jumping but while she made some headway turning for home, was unable to get close enough to the leaders. This was an improvement on her Leicester outing and is not one without the potential to be competitive as a juvenile, although she may have better prospects in the long term. 85
Hope You Do has all of the credentials to do well in the division and is in the right hands to make an impact. However, while he was rather big at the first and third, his hurdling was sufficient enough for it to not have excused this performance. He was found to be sound afterwards and the jockey merely reported that he was never travelling. His jumps in the straight were untidy and as this was his first outing since May, it is possible that he was not fit enough to do himself justice. His abilities can be better assessed after another run. 86
Alberic jumped poorly before pulling up on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon and while the jockey's encouragement led to some improvement in that department, he still has some way to go. During his two outings to date, he has not yet shown enough to be a threat in open company. 82
Galidermes was having his third run over hurdles in the space of a month, the previous two had been characterised by poor hurdling. While somewhat better on this occasion, he began to lose touch entering the straight and weakened to finish a thirty-length seventh at the line. He has been allotted a rating of 95 which, while not warranted by his hurdles performances, does not look unreasonable compared to his flat form and his trainer has won handicaps with older juveniles. 77
Dreaming Blue came into the race with the best flat form and demanded 60,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. His breeding is, without being outstanding, is feasible insofar as hurdling is concerned and his trainer also has a fair record in the division. However, there were flashes of greenness during his flat career and this, in conjunction with a four-month layoff, led to a debut with novicey jumping and poor travelling. While he set off in touch, he was being niggled along as early as the third and poor jumping accelerated his fall through the field. He might be seen in a better light with fitness and experience, but there was little encouraging about this performance in isolation. 70
Son Of Oz, a son of Australia, is related to several decent jumpers and his trainer was responsible for the useful juvenile Beltor. However, he sold for only 3,000 guineas as a yearling and was making his racecourse debut here. Always in the rear, his jumping was very slow and cautious before becoming slow and untidy in the later stages. The last horse to finish, he was beaten by over forty-two lengths and would need to step up drastically if he is to make any showing in the near future. 65
BH, whilst I’m sure we all appreciate the thoroughness of your reviews and find them of great value I’m equally sure that no-one would mind just a bullet point summary for the remainder to allow you to catch up. I know that would probably offend your professionalism, but do take it easy.
Bachelors Hall (24th December 2020), Grey (22nd December 2020)
FAIRYHOUSE 12th December
Preview review
There was no written preview for this day's races as such, rather it was a dump of information with the prospects lists drawn from a daft o'clock glare at same. Consequently, no justifications were recorded. Save for the early faller, the front six filled the same positions, albeit in a very different order. The winner was underestimated due to his poor jumping when third in a moderate contest on his hurdles debut. His flat form warranted better prospects and there was a discernible improvement in both his hurdling and the way he travelled. Strong prospect Ilmig was a well supported favourite and was moving like a winner before the turn for home but he found himself outpaced. Though the ground was soft/heavy, Fairyhouse may still have been too sharp for him. Toughari has a fair record at Fairyhouse which was not immediately apparent from the statistical overviews so this would bolster the case of leaning towards essay previews.
Race review
The race was marred by the death of Damage Control. While fatal injuries are an inevitable consequence of the sport, as well as life in general, it never fails to sap the enthusiasm or demand reflection. Prior to the horse's passing, there had been 603 individual runs in the division this season without a single fatality which is a mercifully low rate of attrition. This also means that I have yet to be presented with the task of reviewing such an event. Matters pertinent to the horse's prospects or performance are completely irrelevant and will not be discussed. Cloying sentiments of condolences are also useless as while the event for many people involved with a deceased horse can be a wretched time, the same horses are concurrently viewed by many in the sport as transitory commodities whose death only provokes a call to the insurance company. Since condolences are more appropriate in some cases more than others, it is more practical to simply forego them as those who were affected will gain nothing from arbitrary remarks made in a detached environment. Nevertheless, if observations can be made pertinent to the causes of the accident, then they will be noted for posterity.
As for the contest as a contest. The last juvenile hurdle prior to the festive races, it has been used to introduce some useful sorts over the years including the likes of Abbyssial, Allblak des Places and Thunder Zone, but with the exception of the stricken horse, none of the newcomers were especially compelling. Those with the strongest hurdles experience earned ratings between 99 and 120 and would fill the first five places, albeit in the exact reverse order. Nevertheless, this group was well clear of the remainder. The pace was solid courtesy of a tearaway leader and the winning time was three seconds quicker than the 0-109 handicap which followed - although they had one less hurdle to jump. Though a pair of the principles underperformed and the quality of jumping was just below par, the finishing cluster was a reasonable one so the form has a fairly settled look without being completely solid.
Peckham Springs failed to score in six runs on the flat and had yet to perform up to his official rating of 79. He jumped poorly on his hurdling debut at Punchestown but made rapid headway to finish just over six lengths third. It was a substandard race for the venue and even his best flat form left him with something to find in this company. Nevertheless, apart from hesitating at the first and fifth, he jumped markedly better and it was a quicker - if untidy - jump at the last which gave him the decisive initiative. In the event, he also gave his trainer his first winner in the sphere. This marks a career best and though the bare form is not worth a great deal, having only made his racecourse debut in late August, further improvement is not out of the question. 111
Toughari achieved little in his first six starts on the flat and one over hurdles, but was able to break his duck at this venue in a handicap off 53 and put up an improved showing here next time over hurdles when an eight length fifth to Jeff Kidder. His jumping has been marked by trepidation and he was still steady going into several hurdles here while getting in too close. Prominent in the chasing pack, he was left in the lead turning in but was headed at the last where he was allowed to find his own stride and rewarded his jockey's trust by losing valuable momentum. Though it can not be said for certain that the mistake cost him the race, the cumulative effect of his entire round will have made a telling difference. There is a moderate race in him, particularly at this or a similar venue, but he might benefit more from a handicap mark. 109
Complete Fantasy was largely modest on the flat and his first two efforts over hurdles did not bring immediate improvement. Nevertheless, he jumped better on his third outing coming at this venue and he maintained his progression when third at Gowran Park last time out. Settling close behind the leaders of the chasing pack, his hurdling took a slight decline as he steadied into several flights and got in particularly close to the second. He was still in contention in the closing stages while unable but land a threatening blow on the race, came close to grabbing second on the line. This was another honest, if slightly regressive, performance and while he is capable of remaining competitive at this level, he is another who could find more success with a sufficient mark. 109
Charlie Bassett was in the process of making a respectable debut at Down Royal but for being brought down at the penultimate flight. Subsequently, he returned to the flat where he finished runner-up in a pair of maidens before a three length fifth in a similar contest at Leopardstown in mid October. Though slightly awkward over the first two hurdles, he was soon jumping well again and was still in touch three furlong out. However, his stamina had been questionable on the flat and though he also wanted for fitness, he failed to see out the trip here and faded to finish eleven lengths behind the third. Despite being a maiden after twelve starts, he is not short of ability or resolution. However, he may only be seen to best effect under the sharpest of conditions. 98
Ilmig began his racing career in early October but was already off the mark on his second start and was well supported ahead of his debut at Punchestown. But for one error, he put in a good round of jumping on that occasion and was equally proficient here after being well backed into 8/13 at the off. He jumped into the lead half a mile out and looked to be travelling well within himself. However, he found himself outpaced on the turn for home and would be left behind by his pacier opponents. It was a similar case on his Punchestown outing and being a flat winner over fourteen furlongs on soft ground, he looks likely to need a sterner test than that afforded by Fairyhouse. 98
Adamaris won his penultimate start on the flat and his official mark of 68 is workable at this level. He was set to make his jumps debut at Gowran Park but for being cast in his box, but was quietly fancied ahead of his introduction here. His hurdling began with him getting very close to the second and steadying at the third but there were no major complaints thereafter. He made some headway into a midfield position but was never able to advance further and was ultimately beaten by thirty-six lengths. Perhaps more time to recover from his box incident and an improvement in trainer form may see him in a better light, but there was nothing particularly encouraging on this showing. 75
Movie King was untidy over the first couple of flights but otherwise posted his cleanest round to date. Held up throughout the contest, he made minor headway with six furlongs to run but never got near to the leaders. He has been entered for a handicap on Sunday although his mark of 90 will require a performance surpassing anything he has achieved on either code. 74
Saga Malta has raced exclusively over hurdles in a four race career with her best effort being a twenty-six length fifth behind Crassus at Limerick. Her jumping was not as good on this occasion as though she was blameless for being baulked on landing at the second, was untidy at the next, got close to the fourth and skewed over the sixth. Her rating of 90 is feasible on her Limerick effort, but her general quality of jumping might be an impediment. 89
Roma Delight went into a clear lead from the start but jumped too exuberantly for her own good and was caught with five furlongs left to race before fading quickly. She did not settle on her debut and does not look a straightforward ride. 52
Townes was not completely disgraced on his hurdles debut at Cork as he was in front with three to go. However, he jumped worse here under a more conservative ride and finished completely tailed off. 0
Willywampus started the season with a rating of 80 but two below par runs saw his revised mark of 73 look harsh. He jumped fine on his hurdles debut at Limerick and though still in the rear, he had yet to be asked any serious question when taking off too early and falling at the fifth. He was not a forlorn a hope as the 125/1 odds suggested, but he has yet to demonstrate this year that he might be immediately competitive. 0
Lady Kapalua was tailed off on her racecourse debut in the season's curtain raiser back in August, and was badly hampered by the first flight faller. From there, her jumping was untidy and she was detached from an early stage before pulling up before three out. 0
Laralei finished a nine length third in a claimer on her final start for Ger Lyons, but showed absolutely no aptitude on her jumps bow. Her hurdling was very slow and she was completely detached after the second before pulling up later on in the race. 0
Damage Control was distracted by two horses steadying into the first flight, which he completely missed and tripped over. He appeared to break his neck on landing. The low sun coming from his left may have been a factor. For all that the incident is a rare occurrence, this may have been mitigated a practice hurdle so that the first flight might not have been a surprise to those in front of him.
CHELTENHAM 12th December
Preview review
The winner had the strongest prospects and finished clear of a strung out field. The next two prospects finished in reverse order, though the third did himself no favours by getting lit up along the back. Camouflaged somewhat exceeded expectations although he still jumped poorly and never looked a threat to the first two.
Race review
Four of this race's graduates had been placed in the Triumph since 2012, but none of Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls or Philip Hobbs were represented in this renewal. Those with the best hurdles form came to the fore and finished in accordance with their prior achievements. They were also the most fluent hurdlers in the field by a considerable margin. The pace set looked decent enough but while the winning time was still nearly nine seconds slower than that set in the Bula hurdle, they did omit three hurdles. Ultimately, the form does look reliable, although it closer resembles a good Class 2 than a pattern quality race.
Adagio brought a rating close to 87 from the flat, overcame some sloppy jumping to make a winning jumps debut at Warwick, and surpassed that form when second in a Grade 2 on the old course. His jumping still lacked fluency on that occasion, but apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly to the line, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. While the bare form is not yet pattern class, this was only his fourth run this year so there is still room for further improvement. 127
Historic Heart already had five runs under his belt prior to this contest, but that experience along with the application of cheekpieces, enabled him to run a new career best. His jumping was perfectly clean and a more conservative ride preserved sufficient energy to move to the last without coming under a hard drive. Though unable to match the winner for pace on the run to the line, against whom he was conceding three pounds, he stayed on well to pull seven lengths clear of the remainder. Versatile insofar as the ground is concerned and increasingly straightforward in his nature, Historic Heart is a likeable sort. However, this performance provoked a thirteen pound rise in his handicap mark which would demand even further progression. 124
Son Of Red had been an improver on the flat through the autumn and showed decent speed and aptitude when making a winning hurdles debut at Newcastle. He could have settled better on that occasion and he was also lit up here. His jumping was less affected by his headstrong nature as the only errors he made were clipping the third and steadying slightly over the last. Though still in contention turning in, he was off the bridle two furlong out and began to fade after the last. Nevertheless, he was still putting himself into every stride and was able to match his Newcastle performance. He is a decent jumper and has a nice attitude but his inability to settle is detrimental to his efforts. If this can not be rectified then only the sharpest of tests will see him run above this level. 117
Camouflaged earned two wins and a rating of 76 for Mark Johnston which were sufficient to warrant a 90,000 guineas price tag at the Tattersalls August Sale. He was said to make a noise when disappointing on his hurdles bow at Huntingdon on the first of November, and a subsequent wind operation was complimented with a tongue tie for his second outing for Charlie Mann. There was a big leap forward from a form perspective, but this was compromised by some big and slow leaps over most of his hurdles. He was still disputing the lead at the distance but his wasteful hurdling took their toll from thereon as he weakened on the run in. There should be more to come if he is able to jump better. 107
Pawpaw was the most expensive prospective juvenile hurdler purchased at the Tattersalls July Sale, leaving Clive Cox for 60,000 guineas. Though his official mark of 74 was the lowest of the three newcomers, he finished the best of them despite pulling hard and making a calamitous error at the first which saw him skid on landing. His jumping only improved marginally from there and he was running green in the closing stages. Though he faded from a prominent position, he was able to regain a couple of places on the flat which offers some respite for his prospects. He is entitled to improve for his first outing since June and the early errors made his task appreciably more difficult. Pawpaw still has something to prove in the immediate future but his overall profile is not without its positives. 95
Shake A Leg was a fairly useful winner in Ireland for Andrew Oliver and has joined a yard with a good record in the division. Though his breeding does not compel any real enthusiasm for his hurdling prospects, he was not without his supporters moving from 13/2 in the morning to 4/1 at the off. However, he was another who pulled hard and held up in the rear, he made numerous mistakes throughout. He only had one behind turning in and though he made slight progress without closing on the leaders, his effort was further truncated by a slight stumble after the last. Better jumping can elicit some progress, but better was expected and his overall profile is not one of a potentially useful juvenile. 92
Simply True was formerly a stablemate of Shake A Leg with a higher official rating and a higher price tag at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. He did not command the same market confidence however and though he led for all but the last three furlongs of the race, his reticent jumping and relative keenness prevented him from looking a serious threat. He lost his position turning for home and dropped back quickly through the field to finish the race forty-six lengths behind the winner. His being able to set and maintain a gallop is encouraging in and of itself and while his finish was underwhelming, he should gain from the experience along with a drop in class. 76
Blue Slate sprang a surprise when winning at Leicester given that he had previously been well beaten in a pair of sellers. Reasonable jumping was a crucial factor in his winning what was most likely a poor race. Such a thing was absent from the start here as he made a very bad mistake at the first, which was followed by steady approaches to, and poor jumps over, the remaining hurdles. In any event, he would likely have been completely outclassed without the error laden round. Nevertheless, this is a habit he will want to drop when he returns to a more appropriate level. 39
DONCASTER 12th December
Preview review
Glorious Zoff was given the strongest prospects with the caveat that he might be having his mark protected. However, while he did underperform, and the ground was more testing than ideal for him, it may be time to concede that his Sligo performance was overestimated. Otherwise, the field finished as anticipated.
Race review
The second graded contest of the season, this race had been won by useful sorts in the past including Peace And Co, Quel Destin and Sametegal. The former two did so for Paul Nicholls and it was this yard which produced another potentially classy sort. The pace set by the leader was a good one without being excessive and was in keeping with the Class 2 handicap hurdle. The winning time was also marginally quicker and the field finished in a strung out fashion and an appropriate order. The first and second jumped well for the most part and despite the small field, there is little reason to challenge the credibility of the form.
Monmiral was a decisive winner of the Prix Rush from Hell Red back in March and while he is thought of in terms of a chaser, he is quickly establishing himself as a serious juvenile hurdler. His winning UK debut at Exeter was a comfortable one and while it lacked substance, there was scope for further improvement. Particularly on the softer ground which he encountered here. Heading the pursuit of the clear leader, his jumping was decent with his only mistakes coming at the fifth where he got in close, and the penultimate flight where he was rather low and ended up skidding on landing. He closed on the leader turning for home and a good jump at three out saw him take the lead. His error at two out saw him shaken up to regain momentum and he was the best part of a dozen lengths clear approaching the last where another good leap put the seal on the contest. Given that the consistent runner-up likely ran a career best, and his winning time reads favourably against his 138 rated stablemate who took the handicap hurdle, it would be fair to place this performance as the best seen either side of the Irish Sea and French Channel. Though the going was officially good to soft, plenty of turf was getting kicked up and Monmiral has proven that he acts in testing conditions. That he has yet to be tested on a sounder surface presents a gap in his Triumph prospects. Saints Des Saints tend to be happy on soft ground but a few are versatile in this regard and close relative La Landiere won the Cathcart on good ground so his festival prospects can not be readily discounted. He is not entered in the Finale hurdle, but at this stage, he spearheads the British challenge for Triumph honours. 140
Gold Desert broke his duck when winning a poor race on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in October, but has since gone from strength to strength with a third at the same venue and a second win at Catterick. Good ground at Catterick did not entirely play to his strengths and he needed every yard to grab the victory. His jumping has improved with each outing and under an enterprising ride here, he was very fluent over the first four hurdles. A lack of concentration saw him get the fifth wrong and wander somewhat into two out, but he was otherwise polished. Despite being outjumped and passed at three out, he did little wrong in isolation and though he was no match for the winner, he was able to reverse Sedgefield placings with Glorious Zoff to the tune of more than twenty lengths. His official mark of 123 is not a harsh one and he remains unchanged even after a new career best. Though a double penalty is a burden, he would remain competitive in average contests and can also be on the premises in weaker pattern races. Provided he stays healthy, Gold Desert still has more to offer this season. 124
Glorious Zoff failed to win in six starts for Charlie Hills on the flat and his rating of 72 was fair at best. Nevertheless, he made a most taking debut at Sligo where he jumped intelligently and won in nonchalant fashion from the capable Crassus. He was turned over next time at Sedgefield where his aptitude was a shadow of its Sligo mould and he posted an even lesser performance here. His first two jumps had a decided lack of fluency and he was squeezed in mid air at the third. With the exception of two out, the remainder of his round was reasonable but it was never electric and he travelled without conviction for most of the contest. It is plausible that this might have been an exercise in softening his rating of 131 for the benefit of potential handicap targets later in the season and the ground will have been quite unsuitable. However, the stir created by his Sligo performance has waned and in hindsight, it looks most likely that Crassus underperformed in comparison to his efforts either side and Sligo was used to rebuild his confidence. Glorious Zoff is still better than this and he would not be readily dismissed in the future. Nevertheless, perceptions of his ability have to be recalibrated and he will need to remember how to jump if he is to return to his best. 102
Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven attempts on the flat, but he came into this race following a succession of runner-up spots and a rating of 76. Though he was suffering a case of seconditis and traded as low as 1.03 when gubbed at Kempton, any suggestion that he might be ungenuine would be an unjust accusation. Nevertheless, he was thrown in at the deep end for his hurdles debut and he did himself no favours by being keen early on or jumping in a novicey style. He lost his position turning for home and ultimately finished a tired horse. On breeding, there is little reason for him to surpass his flat ability and unless he improves drastically for the experience, his prospects might hinge on the type of rating he eventually receives. 85
Mistersister finished less than two lengths behind Nassalam on his hurdles debut at Clairefontaine and though he was beaten much further by Saint Sam next time, he was able to win a claimer at Le Lion d'Angers after which he was bought for €16,006. Horses bought from French Claiming Hurdles are rarely top class, but they do have a solid winners to runners rate of 24% and have included fair sorts in Notus De La Tour and Chic Name. Returning after a break of over one hundred days, Mistersister was not especially well fancied in a first time tongue tie and did not jump especially well for a French import. He steadied going into the first and after being slightly untidy at the third and fourth, got in very close to the fifth from where he was always struggling before pulling up after the next. His mark has dropped five pounds to a more feasible 125 but he may be the type to acclimatise after a few more runs. 0
CATTERICK 15th December
Preview review
More than three thousand words were written to preview the race which may be a record for a Catterick juvenile. Unfortunately, the concluding prospects list bore little resemblance to the finishing order as none of the strong or reasonable prospects finished placed and the winner appeared at number nine on the list. Notwithstanding, he still had feasible prospects which reflects the very open nature of this contest. Kings Creek was underestimated as his form was not discernibly the strongest and he had previously ran below par on soft ground. Nevertheless, the break opened the possibility of physical development and that appears to have been decisive. Furthermore, while the ground was described as soft, the dry weather probably made conditions less testing than anticipated. Wise Eagle had a questionable attitude, a patchy profile and was uncertain to stay. In his case, the removal of blinkers was a useful step and he adds to Free Eagle's fine start as a sire in the division. En Couleur had feasible prospects and his performance began a resurgence in his stable's form. Kiss My Face had strong prospects due to his bumper form, pedigree and yard but his jumping let him down massively on his hurdles debut. Sir Charles Punch's prospects were contingent on his jumping more confidently than he had in a better race on his debut but this did not materialise.
Race review
The race looked a trappy if average contest and it was ultimately decided between the three best jumpers on the day. The winner benefitted from a break and put his experience to good use here. The next pair jumped well and were upwards of seven lengths clear of the remainder which was headed by the highest rated flat horse. The pace was solid, the field finished strung out and there were no real hard luck stories so it looks reliable as it is on the day. Nevertheless, as the field were in various stages of their careers and most made numerous errors, it would be unlikely that the finishing order would be replicated were the contest to be repeated at the end of the season.
Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a £12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. His revised mark of 117 is not unjustly harsh but if he is an honest performer and can remain competitive if staying in good form. 115
Wise Eagle won a Lingfield maiden in February on his second flat start, but had subsequently finished seventh on four consecutive outings in handicap company. His latest rating of 67 was a reasonable reflection of his ability although he did pull extremely hard when last seen. The blinkers were left off for his stable/hurdling debut and he settled well in midfield from the outset. Apart from getting close to the sixth, he posted a respectable round for a newcomer and while he could not get close to the winner, a better jump at the last enabled him to finish second. Along with bolstering the jumps record of rookie sire Free Eagle, he also gave his trainer a solid first foray in the discipline. While this was not the highest quality contest, this was a pleasing debut and he should be of interest in ordinary company next time. 110
En Couleur showed some promise on his flat debut back in March but achieved little in two subsequent outings in October and started at 125/1 ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. Nevertheless he outran those odds to finish just over eleven lengths fourth to First Impression and jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth. Making headway earlier from a rear position, he also jumped well here apart from getting close to the sixth and led the pursuit of the winner up the straight. A slightly untidy jump at the last compromised his chances of finishing runner up but he was still a good seven lengths clear of the remainder. His allotted rating of 108 is perfectly reasonable and this unexposed horse can progress further in the division. 108
Indigo Lake won a Newcastle handicap on his penultimate outing and the consequent rating of 91 is the highest seen thus far in the division. He has joined a good yard for his new vocation although his leaving John Gosden carries a certain impediment as it is rare for such expats to improve with a new trainer. Furthermore, while Frankel has had reasonable success in the division and the granddam is a half-sister to Kerawi, Juddemonte bred horses typically underachieve over hurdles. He was a solid favourite in the betting ahead of his hurdles debut but he ran nowhere near his flat ability. Though slightly baulked at the first, he was largely responsible for his own undoing as he was keen in the early stages, big over the second and fifth while being slow to get away from a few other jumps. While he was close enough if good enough in the straight and traded at odds-on in-running, he never looked a serious danger and was quite easily left behind by the front three. Indigo Lake has the raw ability to win modest races, but unless there is a dramatic improvement in his aptitude, he is unlikely to advance far beyond average company. 101
Kiss My Face had twice been placed in bumpers and was representing a good yard for the discipline. He was not unfancied but his jumping left a great deal to be desired as he made errors at most flights including getting close on several occasions as well as pecking on landing. There were a couple of incidents where he was baulked and bumped, including on the approach to the penultimate flight. He also covered more ground than most as he switched from an inside position in the back to going widest of all turning for home. These factors will have impacted his performance but not to the extent that he might have finished significantly closer. For a horse so inexperienced, it would be fair to not judge him too harshly on this outing. Nevertheless, he still needs to build on this performance in terms of aptitude and maturity before he begins to reach his potential. 94
Miracle Eagle was a progressive, if moderate, maiden on the flat and made a tolerable hurdling debut at Wetherby. A tendency to pull on the flat was less prevalent on that occasion and was virtually non-existent on her second try over hurdles. However, she was nowhere near as fluent this time round, steadying and getting too close to several hurdles. She raced prominently from the start but began to lose her position in the back straight. While she was able to pass a couple of beaten horses on the run-in, she did not close on the leaders and ultimately regressed from her debut outing. Better was expected and the yard was not in great form so she can still bounce back without holding pretentions to being above-average. 86
Sir Charles Punch had a deteriorating flat mark but this was less due to a loss of ability and more about his capacity to fulfil same as he had a habit of working himself up. He settled better on his hurdles debut in a solid looking race at Newcastle but he was impeded by hesitant jumping which once again prompted his demise. Reticence cost him ground at several hurdles and he was unable to make inroads in the straight. While he has not been completely disgraced thus far over hurdles, he needs to be more assured over his hurdles if he can be competitive in the sphere. 91
Yulong Magicreef disappointed after a promising flat debut and his reasonable jumping on his hurdles bow at Wetherby was the only positive to be drawn from that performance. He improved when next seen at Market Rasen when third in a slightly below-average contest and was representing the stable which won last year's renewal of this race. However, he was an alarming drifter in the markets, going from 5/1 in the morning to five times the price at the off. Apart from getting close to the first and steadying ahead of a skewed jump at the third, there was little other cause for complaint regarding his hurdling. However, while he entered the straight within a length of the leader, he would drop tamely through the field. His rating of 104 has yet to be justified by his performances in the division, but he is a sound enough jumper and it might be workable on his best flat form. 89
I'm Easy achieved little on the flat and ran to a similar level on his hurdles debut at Southwell in September. There was slightly more substance when a fine round of jumping saw him finish a thirty-four length fifth at Newcastle and was not far off that level here despite a regressive round of hurdling. He makes no appeal in open company but his rating of 85 is not excessive. 80
Genever Dragon won on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield with Kings Creek seven lengths behind in third. Though he disappointed on his return to that venue, a trip to Catterick saw something of a resurgence when third to Gold Desert. He led from the outset here and jumped well until completely missing three out. This error did not cost him the lead but it likely knocked the stuffing out of him as he was struggling shortly afterwards and weakening when making another blunder at the penultimate flight. His mark has dropped three pounds to 112 but this still demands a career best if he is to find it useful and his winners penalty will likely keep him vulnerable in open company. 82
Walkonby won four raced on the flat and while she was well beaten on her hurdles debut at Wetherby after taking a keen hold, she did jump neatly for a long way. However, though she settled better here, her jumping was a pale imitation of her Wetherby showing as she was big, slow and ungainly which prevented her from ever leaving the rear. While this was a slight improvement from a form perspective, she can not jump the way she did today if she is to rediscover the ability that saw her win races on the flat. 68
Fahad had initially been rated 77 on the flat for Roger Varian but had began to show signs of decline before switching to his new yard. His stable/hurdles debut came over this course and distance where he jumped poorly in the rear before passing beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fifth. This time, he jumped moderately better in the rear but would not make any such progress and would be beaten twice the margin. 68
Where's The Tape jumped acceptably when fourth on her racecourse debut in a poor race at Sedgefield two months earlier. However, there was less fluency on display here and she never progressed from the rear of midfield. 54
Hellfire Kode beat only one of eighteen rivals during her two flat runs back in June and lacked fluency in the rear before finishing hopelessly tailed off. 0
NEWBURY 16th December
Preview review
The uncertainly surrounding the abilities of Goodbye Stranger affected the shape of the preview. Particularly as while ordinarily, newcomers have a moderate record, this one was representing a top yard with no history of running such type. Nevertheless, he still had reasonable prospects due to breeding and connections and despite mixed signals from the market and an inauspicious start to the race, was able to make a winning debut. Strong prospect Leylak wanted somewhat for proven class, but he made a very encouraging debut and was feasibly unlucky to have made a mistake at the last as he did trade as low as 1.44 in running. Kentucky Hardboot exceeded expectations but the ground was not as testing as it could have been and he had experience to his name. Overpriced Mixer was a disappointment although it is possible his confidence was affected by his fall last time out. While the idea of trying to construct so IF/VLOOKUP formula to discern the record of juveniles coming back after a fall is an exciting one, time is currently limited. As such, a look at the Adrian Massey site shows that since 2012 three-year-olds after a fall have a 9.7% strike rate, which increases to 12.4% the race afterwards. the figures for four-year-old juveniles is 7.8% first race back, 9% after two races. This will not account for flat runs in the interim and it is a few seasons short of my worksheet. Nevertheless, a fall has a very tangible impact on a young horse's performance with is mitigated by a confidence booster.
Race review
This particular contest has a good history having been taken by the Triumph one-two in 2008. Clan des Obeaux and Style de Garde are a couple of the more notable recent participants and though those with experience look short of pattern class, the winning newcomer could be quite useful. He did not look brilliant in the opening stages, but he learned as the race progressed and he got ahead of a twice placed hurdler and another interesting newcomer at the line with the trio finishing nicely clear. The race was ran at a solid gallop and the winning time was over two seconds quicker than the following maiden which Nicky Henderson has won with very good sorts in the past. Kentucky Hardboot's position and proximity anchors the form to a certain extent, but the prominent newcomers do have scope for further improvement and could be useful recruits to the sphere.
Goodbye Stranger is something of an anomaly being a Nicky Henderson trained racecourse debutant. There was the option of running in a bumper which the trainer is not averse to doing, although no such horse goes on to contest juvenile hurdles. As it happened, he was sent straight over hurdles and although racecourse debutants have a poor record, he represented a yard with a good record in the race, comes from the same source as We Have A Dream, and is very much bred to do well in the discipline. His opening salvos did not look particularly encouraging as he steadied and hopped over the first, was steady again at the second and untidy at the third where he was shaken up after starting to get detached. The response was gradual but he began to jump with a better rhythm and was actually taking a pull passing the cross-fence. He was still closer to last than first turning into the straight but had got to within a length of the lead at the distance. Untidy jumps at the last two flights compromised his momentum, but he rallied on the run-in and was able to get to the front half a furlong out, finishing a length clear at the line. The signs of inexperience were most conspicuous but he learned a lot from this outing. While the bare form is not a great deal better than average, there is plenty of encouragement to be drawn from this introduction and it will be interesting to see where he goes next. He is currently available at 33/1 for the Triumph although there is work to be done before he can be considered a serious contender. 117
Kentucky Hardboot won a good-to-firm seven furlong Yarmouth handicap in June off 55 and had a patchy profile for a prospective hurdler. Nevertheless, he justified outside support ahead of his jumps bow at Kempton by finishing second to Overpriced Mixer ahead of two subsequent winners. He was not disgraced next time in an open-aged maiden at Huntingdon and appreciated the return to his age group where he posted a new career best. His jumping had been patchy during his first two spins over hurdles, but apart from getting slightly close to the first and the last, hurdled quite well. If there is a criticism, it is that he affords his hurdles a little too much respect and while this does not cost him a great deal of momentum, it will sap the cumulative energy. It emerged after the contest that he lost his left-fore shoe which affords him further credit while possibly explaining his jumping. He is getting closer to his rating of 118 and in a race with more emphasis on speed, he should be a likely sort. 116
Leylak placed no better than sixth in three maiden contests for Michael Halford, but he ran to a creditable standard and is an interesting acquisition for a Dan Skelton yard which has had success with juveniles from the same source. Held up in midfield, he jumped reasonably well without being foot perfect in general. Despite wandering on the approach to the last, he still looked to hold every chance before getting in too close and being slow to get away from the flight. It took him several strides to regain his momentum and he was not helped when the runner-up drifted in front of him half a furlong out. Though he managed to get within a length of the runner-up at the line, the damage had already been done. Whether he would have won with better luck during the final two furlongs is not a ludicrous position, but in the grand scheme of things it is neither here nor there. What can be said is that Leylak showed signs of definite promise on his hurdling debut and he could develop into a fairly useful sort as he matures and gains further experience. 116
Tinnahalla did not win during seven flat outings, but his rating of 75 is sensible and he has shown the requisite stamina for his new career. With Starspangledbanner emerging as a feasible sire of juveniles, Tinnahalla is seriously well bred recruit to the division as he is a half-brother to Thomas Hobson and Drifter while his dam is a half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. He was tried in a hood for the first time and while he was not fighting for his head, he did pull himself into a clear lead passing the stands. He would maintain this lead until the approach to the penultimate flight and although he was readily outpaced by the front three, he was able to preserve an advantage of three lengths over the remainder of the field. Tinnahalla will need to jump and settle better if he is to progress, but it was respectable introduction nonetheless. 107
Iron Heart was a dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, but ran below par on his hurdling debut at Wincanton where conditions appeared to be ideal. An untidy round of jumping likely caused a wound on his near fore and he was hesitant going over the final two hurdles. He was very hesitant and untidy at the first here and also steadied into the next. Though he was better over the next three, he skewed over the fifth and was close at the next two, stumbling on landing at the penultimate flight. As rotten luck would have it, he was found to have suffered an overreach on the same hoof he injured at Wincanton. That he stayed on up the run-in, albeit as a thirteen-length fifth, is a tribute to his courage and was vast improvement on his debut outing. He has yet to match his flat form and he may be even more reticent when facing hurdles once again. Nevertheless, his efforts are not without promise and if he becomes more assured over his hurdles and perhaps undergoes a gelding operation then he might find himself with a kind handicap mark. 104
Wightman won one of his twelve starts on the flat, but had not performed beyond a mile and is not especially bred for a hurdling career. Held up just behind midfield, his jumping was rarely catastrophic but it did leave plenty to be desired as he had a habit of landing steeply. He made slight headway passing the cross-fence but never moved into a challenging position and finished quite tired. This was not a disgraceful performance but he does not look an obvious sort going forward. 99
Albert Van Ornum was successful on his penultimate outing in a moderate conditions race at Auch, although the form is not worth a huge amount. Nevertheless, he has joined a very capable yard and is bred to make a better hurdler. However, while he attempted to track the leaders, he was keen early and an unbroken sequence of moderate jumps were detrimental to his efforts. He was a tired horse in the closing stages and while there is some scope for improvement, he would only be of interest in moderate company at this juncture. 98
Overpriced Mixer made a winning start to his hurdling career at Kempton despite a last flight blunder causing his jockey to complete the race without stirrups. Foregoing the Grade 2 at Cheltenham, he was in the process of running a respectable race at Ludlow before falling at two out. Though he would likely have finished second, it is a race which has worked out well and he started favourite for this contest. However, that fall appears to have affected his confidence as while he has not yet been the most fluent jumper, this was his least fluent round overall, steadying into the first and fifth and getting too close to three others including the last. This was much his worst showing in three jumps outings to date, but he is entitled to do better if more confident for the experience. 103
Splinter scored in a Musselburgh seller on his penultimate start for Richard Fahey and since joined Alex Hales for 9,000 guineas. He was anything but fluent on his hurdles debut as he was either steady, close, big or slow at most of his hurdles. Though he initially tracked the leaders, he lost his place along the back straight and began to get detached with half a mile to run. 78
Night Bear finished runner-up to subsequent Doncaster Cup fourth Revolver at Haydock on his penultimate start and was not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut. Though he was baulked and squeezed on a couple of occasions, his poor jumping was the main culprit of this lacklustre performance. The vet reported that Night Beat lost his near-fore shoe and it would be premature to completely write him off. Nevertheless, he does have questions to answer for the time being. 69
Prince Percy was a respectable second to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen on his hurdling debut back in July, but subsequently disappointed on the flat and was pulled up when last seen at Plumpton three months ago. To his credit, he posted the cleanest round of jumping in the field, but he never the rear of the field and was pulled up before the last. He had reportedly been struck into on his off-hind and incidentally, his mark of 102 is not unduly harsh. Notwithstanding, he has an increasing amount to prove at this stage. 0
I don't believe I made it clear just how greasy and salty the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX truly is. The stuff is legendary and you don't have to take my word for it.
"Be like totally chill with everything except for when it comes to the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX" - The Buddha
"LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX ain't nuthing ta f*** wit" - Confucius (incidentally, a great inspiration to the Wu-Tang-Clan)
"I thought winning the Grand National was pretty neat. But then I tried the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX and now I have a better perspective on the important things in life" - Mick Fitzgerald
"My style is impetuous, my defence is impregnable, and I'm just ferocious. I want your heart. I want to eat LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX. Praise be to Allah." - Mike Tyson
And so forth...
I am genuinely appreciative of your sentiments, but given that it has taken me three days to do five races, I can assure you I was going at a fairly leisurely pace. While I can be quite demanding of myself (due largely my many years spent making Harchibald look like Persian Punch), I am just about sensible enough to recognise that if it is a choice between writing an essay about a nondescript contest and being sane, my sanity wins the vote. After all, sizable though my efforts have been, this is ultimately an exercise on a subject matter with a very depreciable shelf-life. The benefits are that is an enjoyable endeavour and that I may even develop some useful skills as a consequence. But the project itself is miniscule compared to anything worth sacrificing, including my own health.
barjon (24th December 2020)
Merry Boxing Day Eve to one and all. The preview for the big one at Leopardstown has taken priority and will be posted now. I will try to do something for the umpteen runner maiden at Limerick although it might end up being slightly thinner.
Tomorrow's Grade Two at Leopardstown is one with a strong tradition and since 2007, has supplied ten horses placed in the Triumph Hurdle, three winners and nine additional placed horses for the Punchestown Champion 4YO, two Anniversary winners and a pair of Fred Winter heroes. It briefly carried Grade One status in 2007 and 2008 this year's renewal could be worthy of such stature. While Youmdor, Duffle Coat and Quilixios are notable absences, their yards are still represented with top horses in the division in Zanahiyr and Saint Sam. Two undefeated French imports make their Irish debuts, Autumn Evening puts his perfect record on the line, and the field is completed by two other winners from good yards. This will be Leopardstown's first contest of the season and with average winning seasonal RPRs of 139 mean, 142 median, it invariably takes a good horse to win at the venue. A largely level racecourse with a slight rise in the straight, it is fair in its nature and its clear round rate of 95.84% is broadly average, but it can still take some getting as its winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.22 mean attest. The going is currently yielding to soft with showers forecast tomorrow morning.
Zanahiyr chg Gordon Elliott f4-1-1 (-) 80 j2-2-0 (-) 145 143
Nathaniel (Marju){9-c}(0.53) 2/1 Zarinava 1st Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
An unexposed improver on the flat for Michael Halford, Zanahiyr had the right credentials to make a decent juvenile hurdler being a son of Nathaniel from the family of several top hurdlers and is in the right hands to maximise his potential. He made a promising hurdling debut at Ballinrobe over eighteen furlongs on soft ground. There he beat Dark Voyager by a couple of lengths and jumped decently save for a few minor errors. He was stepped up in class to contest a Grade Three at Fairyhouse and made such an impression that he was catapulted to the head of the Triumph Hurdle market. Settling behind clear leader Druid's Altar, Zanahiyr closed to within a length with six furlongs left to run. He shared the lead on the turn for home and had cruised into a definitive lead by the penultimate flight. Shaken up on the approach to the last, he quickly extended his advantage to over a dozen lengths which he would maintain to the line. While the word perfect should be avoided when describing racehorses, apart from very slightly brushing the top of two out, Zanahiyr jumped about as well as is possible for a juvenile hurdler. The winning time was also extraordinary as it was over ten seconds quicker than the Royal Bond. If looking for reasons to downplay this performance, the capitulation of Druid's Altar left Zanahiyr with only Saint Sam to beat who was an import having his first outing for four months. Furthermore, given the exceptional nature of this performance, it is possible that conditions were absolutely optimal for him on this occasion. Reopposing Druid's Altar and Saint Sam, there is definite strength in depth amongst his opposition and all of his rivals are both unexposed and entitled to be here. Nevertheless, he is the most accomplished horse in the line up and while Leopardstown is quite different to Fairyhouse, he has won on soft ground, comfortably saw out the two mile two furlongs at Ballinrobe and was second in a Navan maiden on his only previous attempt going left handed. Furthermore, despite this race long being the target for Quilixios and with Duffle Coat not taking up this engagement, it is telling that Zanahiyr is the chosen representative of a very strong Gordon Elliott team. Everything is in its right place and the only threats to Zanahiyr's perfect record are a revelatory performance from a rival or a dramatic underperformance on his own part.
Autumn Evening chg Mrs John Harrington f4-0-2 (78) 78 j1-1-0 (-) 118 121
Tamayuz (Manduro){1-t}(1.25) 2/1 Menelaus 1st Handicap Hurdle (98), Towcester 2007
Jessica Harrington is perhaps stronger associated with her flat exploits these days, but she has a strong history in this division with the likes of Breathing Fire, Personal Column and Imazulutoo carrying her flag with honour. Got Trumped, who finished third in this contest two years ago, has been her best recent juvenile but she may have a useful prospect in Autumn Evening. First appearing on the racecourse in late August, he followed a pair of reasonable outings with two successive third place finishes at Navan and the Curragh in the Autumn. By Tamayuz, who has produced minor winning juveniles, and distantly related to Its'afreebee (3/2) and Sausalito Bay (5/2), Autumn Evening was sent off a well backed 5/4 favourite on his hurdling debut at Cork earlier this month and obliged in pleasing fashion. A solid stamp of a horse, he was always racing prominently and jumped nicely for the most part. He got in slightly close to three out but travelled smoothly to the penultimate flight where he jumped into a slender lead. He cruised towards the final flight but an untidy leap saw him skid on landing and lose some momentum. Nevertheless, he only needed a hands and heels ride to regain superiority and carried a length advantage over the line. The bare form is nothing out of the ordinary but it was a comfortable success on the back of a taking display of jumping. It remains to be seen how far he can progress and he needs to improve considerably to land this race. Nevertheless, the conditions present no obvious problems and he is entitled to take his chance.
Busselton bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f1-0-0 j1-1-0 (-) 119
Mastercraftsman (Rock Of Gibraltar){1-u}(2.43) 5/4 Soldier On Parade 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/busselton
The Prix Wild Monarch is contest for horses making their first appearances over hurdles. Recent graduates include Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has, maintaining its tradition of introducing top-class animals to the game over the years such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce to name but a few. Though usually held in April, this year's edition was postponed until May and boasting a large field of nineteen starters. David Cottin saddled his second successive winner in the race and this year's representative was Busselton. His fourth dam, 1983 1000 Guineas winner Ma Biche, has not supplemented her successes on the racecourse in the breeding sheds and Busselton is her only descendant to have won over obstacles. Indeed, the closest other relative to have scored over jumps is this season's Market Rasen winner Soldier On Parade. Rock Of Gibraltar was capable as a sire of juveniles but offers little enthusiasm as a damsire. However, for all that the distaff side is a proverbial family tree of woe, sire Mastercraftsman is the leading sire of juveniles by individual winners which amounts to a respectable 29.43% of all runners. Furthermore, two of the three Joseph O'Brien juveniles who started in French Hurdle races have won first time out and the third, Fine Brunello, chased home stablemate and fellow import Fakir d'Oudairies in the Grade Two Finesse in 2019. Busselton began his career with a sixth placed finish in an ordinary flat maiden at Angers last November ahead of the Prix Wild Monarch where he started the lesser fancied of the David Cottin pair. Racing prominently, his early jumping was poor as he was big and skewed over the second, third and fourth hurdles. He became more fluent as the race progressed and while he skewed slightly over the penultimate flight, he took the last well enough and was a two length winner at the line. Runner-up State Man has since been exported and has not ran since while third placed Bimbo Has was second at Auteuil on her only subsequent completed start. Fourth placed Hades has established himself as a decent chaser, finishing second in the Groupe II Prix Congress and this quartet were upwards of ten lengths clear of the remainder which includes listed winner Chichi de la Vega. Joseph O'Brien has failed to win this contest in six attempts but has collected places with useful sorts A Wave Of The Sea and Landofhopeandglory. Busselton will want to jump better than he had on his debut but the form is developing nicely. However, while the yard's first-time out record with French hurdlers is good, these wins came in maiden company from which Busselton is excluded and the only available options since Druid's Altar's race in mid November have been graded contests so his introduction in exalted company might not be a clue in and of itself.
Druid's Altar bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f5-1-2 (86) 79 j2-1-1 (-) 120 124
Mastercraftsman (Sadler's Wells){13-c}(1.20) 0.5 Waterlord 4th Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2018
Druid's Altar held an entry in the Tattersalls August Sale but his withdrawal proved vindicated as his subsequent flat form included a Bellewstown performance which was two degrees of separation from the Breeder's Cup Mile winner, and wins of his own in a Listowel maiden and a Punchestown juvenile in November. His jumping was not always fluent on that occasion and though he was a decisive winner, the form has only been justified rather than advanced with Autumn Evening holding him on a line through Flying Scotsman. Nevertheless, Druid's Altar took his place in Zanahiyr's Grade Three but he went off way too quickly and jumping untidily again, was caught with six furlong left to run before finishing over thirty lengths behind the front two. He is capable of better if ridden with more restraint but he looks the yard's second string and would need a career best to threaten the leading contenders here.
Ha d'Or bg W P Mullins b1-1-0
Nidor (Network){10-e}(0.41) 2/1 Saintavrilois 1st 4yo Hurdle (Listed), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ha-dor
Laurent Viel has been the source of three juvenile hurdlers since 2013 including Nicky Henderson's dual winner Grand Roi, and Florishwells d'Ete who made a winning debut for Willie Mullins. His latest export, Ha d'Or, won his sole start in an AQPS bumper at Senonnes on the first of July. Held up for much of the contest, he was still in last turning for home but despite running green, hit the front with a furlong to go and was a comfortable six lengths clear at the line. The race has no discernible history but the runner-up subsequently made a winning hurdles debut in a Auteuil newcomers event in October. Willie Mullins has done well with ex-French bumper horses with good types Ut De Sivola, Dandy Mag and French Made all winning on their Irish debuts. Interestingly, Ha d'Or had the option of either starting in a bumper or having a season to develop. However, not only have connections opted to send him straight over hurdles, they have chosen to do so in a very hot contest which is precedent setting for the yard given that Ha d'Or had ample opportunity to start off in a maiden race such as the one held on Sunday which was used to introduce Secant Star in 2009. While certainly bred to be a jumper, he does not have an obvious juvenile pedigree. Sire Nidor won as a four-year-old over hurdles and as a stallion, produced Nicky Henderson's Valtor, listed hurdle winner Corazones and cross country chaser Utah de la Coquais. Curiously, assuming Ha d'Or faces the starter tomorrow, he will be the first of Nidor's 184 offspring to race over hurdles as a three-year-old. There are numerous winners on the damline, and the dam is a half-sister to Advriloise who won a modest three-year-old hurdle at Saint-Brieuc, but most tend to get better with age. By all measures, Ha d'Or has the profile of a long term prospect. But the fact that he has been selected for this contest, especially when the yard has Youmdor at its disposal, definitely provokes intrigue and the booking of Rachael Blackmore further suggests that he is not here to make up the numbers.
Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade f7-1-2 (68) 73 j3-1-2 (-) 115 117
Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) 3/2 Hills Of Aran 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2009
Jeff Kidder finished runner-up on his first two hurdles starts behind Longclaw and Scholastic and following a sharpener at this venue, gained his first jumps success in a Fairyhouse maiden in early November. His jumping had initially been a cause for some trepidation, but was much more fluent on the softer ground last time. It was not a perfect round as he rather steadied at the first, clipped the top of the second and was slightly awkward at the seventh. Nevertheless, it was a clean round overall and he travelled kindly throughout. Always racing prominently while tracking the frontrunners, he found himself boxed in when attempting to challenge turning for home. Nevertheless, he was able to get a clear run approaching the last where a good jump gave him momentum which he carried strongly to the line. The bare form is merely above average and though the career best was indicative of improvement in terms of attitude and aptitude, he has plenty to prove going into a race last won by his trainer in 2004 with Arch Rebel.
Saint Sam bg Willie Mullins j4-2-1 (-) 131 133
Saint des Saints (Linda's Lad){19-b}(0.67) 1/0 Ladeka 2nd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/saint...union=Obstacle
Following a fairly lukewarm debut in the Prix du Buissonnet at Dieppe on the first of June, Saint Sam returned to the Normandy venue later that month where he put up a battling performance to win the Prix Soldat. His next victory in the Prix de l'Oudon carries more substance as he gave five kilos to runner-up Piriac, currently rated 130, who previously finished within a length of Nassalam while in receipt of a kilo. Saint Sam gave a two kilo and a four-and-a-half length beating to third placed Horse Maha who has since won at Dieppe and Toulouse and is currently rated 136. His Irish debut came in the Fairyhouse Grade Three was which used by the trainer to introduce Bapaume and Kalkir in recent seasons and he was sent off an odds-on favourite. Racing alongside Zanahiyr throughout the race, his jumping was very good and the only errors he made were clipping the top of the second and the last while getting in close to the sixth. He had the measure of Druid's Altar as easily as Zanahiyr and traded as low as 1.47 in-running after briefly looking to be travelling the better of the pair. However, it soon became apparent that he was no match for the winner on the day, and plugged on to finish fourteen lengths in arrears. Nevertheless, this was a very pleasing first run for Willie Mullins and with experience under his belt and fitness on his side, he might have more to offer with the benefit of a seven pound pull at the weights. Incidentally, he is from the same family as Blood Cotil (4/3) who was another French hurdles import who won this race on his second start for connections in 2012.
Strong prospects
1. Zanahiyr
Reasonable prospects
2. Saint Sam
3. Ha d'Or
Feasible prospects
4. Busselton
5. Autumn Evening
Moderate prospects
6. Jeff Kidder
7. Druid's Altar
Knew I'd forget this...
Triumph Hurdle
Zanahiyr 4/1
Ha d'Or 33/1
Busselton 40/1
Saint Sam 40/1
Autumn Evening 50/1
Druid's Altar 100/1
Fred Winter
Autumn Evening 14/1
Saint Sam 16/1
Tomorrow's maiden at Limerick was switched to its Boxing Day slot in 2016 and while it competes with a similar contest held at Leopardstown, it has an above average record. Band Of Outlaws broke his duck in this race ahead of winning the Fred Winter and Dogora landed the 2012 renewal before achieving places in several graded contests. This year's edition looks fairly useful with Palm Beach and Zoffanien, second and third at the track at the beginning of the month, renewing their rivalry, Gordon Elliott could have up to three runners depending on the reserve situation and a pair of flat recruits bring useful form to the table. The race might want for strength in depth however, as the general standard of form is moderate and over half of the trainers represented are winless in this sphere. Limerick is a galloping, undulating track and its average winning DIs of 1.11 median and 1.38 mean are almost precisely average. Its clear round rate of 96.73% is just higher than standard as is the completion rate of 88.94%, although with heavy ground and further showers forecast, it will not be a stroll in the Greenmount Park.
Triumph Hurdle
Palm Beach 66/1
Fred Winter
Palm Beach 33/1
Call Me Rocky bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-1-3 (79) 83
Society Rock (Intikhab){2-d}(1.46) 2/1 Boy Royal 1st 4yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2018
A winner of a mile maiden on good ground at this venue back in July, Call Me Rocky also showed form on heavy when second off 78 in a nine furlong handicap on his penultimate outing. Fetching 13,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he left a Johnny Murtagh yard whose former inmates have a poor record in the division with only one of fifteen horses finding the winners enclosure. Society Rock has had a winner and two improvers from a handful of juvenile hurdlers and the dam is a half-sister to hurdle winners Boy Royal and Celticello. Denis Gerard Hogan also gets winning juveniles although his overall strike rate is just 4.35% and only 28.57% of his charges improve for the switch between codes. Call Me Rocky has acceptable flat form and breeding, but his profile is sketchy otherwise and his stamina is not completely assured.
Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (54) 70 j5-0-2 (-) 112 115
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
Complete Fantasy was largely modest on the flat and his first two efforts over hurdles did not bring immediate improvement. Nevertheless, he jumped better on his third outing coming at Fairyhouse in November and he maintained his progression when third at Gowran Park later that month. He returned to Fairyhouse a fortnight ago where he finished third in a lesser contest. Settling close behind the leaders of the chasing pack, his hurdling took a slight decline as he steadied into several flights and got in particularly close to the second. He was still in contention in the closing stages and while unable land a threatening blow on the race, came close to grabbing second on the line. This was another honest, if slightly regressive, performance and while he is capable of running an honest at this level, he might once again find a couple of his rivals too good.
On Guard bg Gordon Elliott f3-1-1 (86) 88 j1-0-0 (-) 93 96
Invincible Spirit (Giant’s Causeway){1-e}(1.40) 2/2 Strolling Home 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2008
On Guard left John Gosden at the Tattersalls August sale for 52,000 guineas to join Gordon Elliott with an official rating of 86. On that basis alone, he could have been seen as an interesting recruit to the division. After a promising debut second at Haydock last year, he won a six runner Yarmouth Novice Stakes from three subsequent winners and two subsequent runners up. Leading from the start, he was headed over a furlong out and drifted out to 20/1 in-running before rallying to regain the lead close to the line. He played up prior to his latest flat outing in the Queen's Vase and refused to settle while being held up, before finishing tailed off. It is typical of juveniles whose flat careers began with John Gosden to disappoint over hurdles without even taking into account the heightened expectations. Of the fifty horses to have made the switch from Clarehaven to hurdles, only six managed to win a race. Three of those with fruitless campaigns sold for over £100,000 and only Tom George's Petit Palais earned more than £10,000 in prize money. Invincible Spirit's record in the sphere is also poor and as though his 9.68% winners to runners rate since 2008/09 was not bad enough, none of his eighteen juveniles since 2012/13 have won a race between them. There are some positives on the damline however as the likes of Chivalry (3/2), Sir Erec (3/3) and jumps stallion Mahler (3/2) can be found. On Guard made it seventeen winless juveniles for Invincible Spirit on his hurdling debut at Killarney in early October where he was an uneasy even money favourite. There he was very fresh in the first part of the contest, wandering into most of his early hurdles and almost refusing at the second. While he was able to settle eventually, he was a tired horse by the end of the race finishing a seventeen length fourth in a moderate looking contest. On Guard showed enough promise to suggest he can be competitive at a moderate level if he becomes more fluent, but he would be breaking a mould if he is to be much better than average in this discipline. This would not be a race that Gordon Elliott typically targets with his better juveniles, with only Vercingetorix of his eight participants winning or achieving an RPR exceeding 117 during the season. Furthermore, having twice been withdrawn from intended engagements, he does not look the most sound of horses and his ability to handle the ground is debatable.
Palm Beach bc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f2-1-0 (-) 82 j1-0-1 (-) 120 124
Galileo (Anabaa){8-f}(0.77) 2/1 Armen 3rd Anniversary Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2001
The second ex-Ballydoyle runner for the yard this season, Palm Beach held a Derby entry after the first scratchings deadline, but did not make the racecourse until September when fourth at Tipperary. He got off the mark later that month in a heavy ground, twelve furlong maiden at Listowel. The second won a maiden next time and the third subsequently took a listed hurdle, with the trio over seven lengths clear of the remainder. A brother to St Leger third Southern France and out of a half-sister to Prix de Diane runner-up Abbatiale, Palm Beach is bred in a manner befitting his Derby entry. Nevertheless, the pedigree is not bereft of useful jumpers as the damline features the likes of Flash Ball (3/1), Amant Gris (3/2) and Triumph Hurdle third Boarding School (4/2). Although he drifted from 8/13 ahead of his hurdles bow at Limerick this month, he still started a shade of odds-on to make a winning hurdling debut and traded as low as 1.3 in-running to do so. However, he was not helped by some novicey jumping as he got in close to several of his hurdles as well as steadying into the fourth. He was green in the closing stages, but this was due to his inexperience rather than any obvious recalcitrance and was simply beaten by a horse with a better idea about the game. He had the measure of Zoffanien who was just under three lengths further behind and there is no reason why those placings ought to be reversed. If Palm Beach improves for the experience then he holds strong chances here, particularly as the yard won this race with Band Of Outlaws two years ago, and its decent flat recruits have a second time out strike rate of 23.33% compared to a first time rate of 8.11%.
Self Assessed bg S J Mahon f6-0-0 (54) 63
Fracas (Pour Moi){1-l}(0.55) 3/1 Run Hurricane 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Clonmel 2015
Leaving Jim Bolger with a rating of 62 after four outings, Self Assessed has since been beaten a combined sixty-five lengths in a pair of handicaps at Limerick and Galway for Stephen Mahon. His new trainer has sent out a winning juvenile from nine starts, which came in an August contest at Galway, but can also count a faller and an unseat among those numbers. Two of the five Fracas juveniles have been winners and while Pour Moi has yet to have a runner as a damsire, his record as a sire is very positive. Nevertheless, there is little encouragement on the immediate damline and even without his poor recent flat efforts, he would still have plenty to find in this company.
Stage Power bg John F Gleeson f5-0-0 (50) 51 j2-0-0 (-) 65 70
Tamayuz (Lawman){5-h}(1.67) 4/1 Danever 1st George Watson Novice Hurdle (L), Flemington 2008
Collecting only duck eggs on the flat, Stage Power jumped poorly on his hurdles bow at Punchestown before beating home only one finisher. His round next time at Cork started with novicey jumps, but while it improved down the back, he was still only able to beat one finisher home. Though it was a career best effort, there are no signs of him being competitive any time soon.
Star Of Cashel bg J A Stack f8-3-1 (89) 95
No Nay Never (Dubai Destination){11}(1.22) 2/1 Woody's Dream 4th 4YO Hurdle, Fontwell 2009
Fozzy Stack has been the source of fourteen juveniles since 2008/09 and three of those have been winners. During that time, he has saddled just the one hurdler himself which was Carlo Biraghi who won a Punchestown juvenile last January on his sole hurdles start. Star Of Cashel bids to maintain that perfect record and based on his three timer accrued in July, his class affords him some chance of doing so. Though his wins came between seven furlongs and a mile, the second of those came on heavy ground and he showed himself a game and genuine horse in the process. Sire No Nay Never has yet to have a winning hurdler and only a couple have reached a place, although his early progeny can be capable of getting a trip. The damline is less encouraging however as it contains few jumpers and the bulk of quality flat horses, including the dam's half-brother Benbaun, are sprinters. Furthermore, it is not clear how well Star Of Cashel will take his gelding operation and while his chances are at least credible, there remain prominent doubts regarding his stamina.
The Copper Kid bg E Sheehy f1-0-0 (-) 19
French Navy (Iffraaj){6-e}(1.44) 2/1 Tagg's Island 1st 4yo Hurdle, Gowran Park 2016
None of Dusty Sheehy's four juvenile hurdlers since 2009 have finished better than eights and his latest recruit, The Copper Kid, finished a twenty-two length eleventh of twelve in a Dundalk maiden two weeks ago. French Navy has already had a winner from his first crop in Son Of Red, and the dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler. However, that is the full extent of The Copper Kid's prospects.
Thekeyisnottopanic bg C W J Farrell f5-0-0 (50) 49 j2-0-0 (-) 57 62
Rock Of Gibraltar (Areion){16-c}(2.43) 3/1 Salden Licht 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2011
If having an amusing name was directly linked to a horse's success, then Thekeyisnottopanic would be leading the Triumph Hurdle markets. However, jumping quickly and moving at speed are more critical factors and Thekeyisnottopanic demonstrated neither of those attributes either at Ballinrobe in August, or Killarney in October. He was not beaten out of sight in two flat handicaps last month, but they came off very low marks and he makes little appeal on his return to hurdling.
Tintean Fein chg John Gerard Fitzgerald Unraced
Power (Cozzene){13-c}(1.50) 2/1 Charming Girl 2nd Top Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 1996
Unraced racecourse debutants generally have a poor record in the division with a historical strike rate of just 2%. However, Goodbye Stranger recently became the third such winner this term after Duffle Coat and Merry Poppins, giving newcomers a 9.38% strike rate for the season. Tintean Fein is a half-brother to crack American two-year-old Toccet along with winning juvenile hurdler Agreement. His dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers including Funambulien, decent French juvenile Carson Bay and useful novice Charming Girl. Four of Power's ten juveniles have been winners including Way Back Home and Our Power and Cozzene has an identical record as a damsire. John Gerard Fitzgerald has yet to saddle a winner under either code since starting in 2013 and while Tintean Fein's pedigree is interesting, it would be a big surprise if he made a winning start in this company.
Townes bg Thomas Cleary f5-0-0 (53) 54 j2-0-0 (-) 86 89
Elusive Pimpernel (Kodiac){12-g}(1.22) 3/3 Berjou 3rd Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (G1), Auteuil 2019
Townes achieved little in five runs on the flat for Richard John O'Brien, but was still in contention with three to jump at Cork before fading. However, he ran no kind of race last time at Fairyhouse and has plenty on his plate here.
Willywampus chg Donal Commins f5-0-1 (73) 82 j2-0-0 (-) 76 80
Zoffany (Medicean){16-h}(3.00) 3/1 Swiss Guard 1st Handicap Hurdle (93), Lingfield 2011
Three promising runs as a two-year-old saw Willywampus begin the year with a rating of 80. He ran nowhere near that level in two starts back in June and was keen early on his hurdles debut at this venue at the beginning of the month. He faded with four furlongs to run but his jumping was decent if nothing else. His latest outing came at Fairyhouse two weeks ago and though he started at 125/1, he had yet to be asked a question when taking off too early and falling at the fifth. He is not as forlorn a hope as those odds suggest, but he will need to be at his best to be competitive here.
Zoffanien bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-2-0 FrF 37.5 (85) 58 j1-0-1 (-) 117 121
Zoffany (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 2/1 Amarak 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2011
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/zoffanien
Zoffanien was available at 16/1 in the morning of his hurdles bow at this venue at the beginning of the month, but started the race at 6/1. While this movement has the hallmarks of a plunge, there was no reason to be as large as he was as his flat form and pedigree afforded him credible prospects. He won two of his starts for Yan Durepaire, including a 2300 metre good ground Dax handicap off an equivalent mark of 77 back in July. Two of Yan Durepaire's four exports to the division have been winners and Zoffanien, after fetching €60,000 at the Arqana Deauville Summer Sale, is the most expensive. He is also the most expensive purchase in the division for a trainer who gets winners but has a poor strike rate. After getting in close to the first, Zoffanien was ridden into the second with satisfactory results and from there, he posted a nice round of jumping for a newcomer. Initially held up in midfield, he joined the leaders with three furlongs to race and although he never posed a severe threat on the front pair, he beaten to second by less than three lengths and was nineteen lengths clear of the third. He was fairly keen early on which is fair given his layoff and it did not take too long for him to settle. It was a nice introduction to the discipline and his yard sent Cafe Con Leche to finish third in this race last year. Zoffanien is capable of winning an ordinary contest and while there is no obvious reasons for him to reverse placings with Palm Beach, a strong showing would not be unexpected.
Army Of One bf Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 DeF GAG 63.5 (47) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 37 34
Kingston Hill (Authorized){2-n}(0.50) 2/1 Aberwind 3rd Handicap Hurdle (122), Compiegne 2020
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18035
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18514
Kingston Hill, being a St Leger winning Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to Lord Jim, has the right attributes to be a useful stallion in the division and it is no surprise that he stands at Castle Hyde Stud. That Army Of One is also out of an Authorized mare makes her an intriguing hurdles recruit on paper. Her best placing in five starts in Germany was a tight second in a Dresden maiden back in June and though difficult to quantify, the RPR of 67 looks a reasonable measure. In Gavin Cromwell, she represents a yard a good record in both the division as a whole, and the listed fillies' race at Aintree where she made her debut three weeks ago. However, she was not strongly fancied in the market beforehand and this lack of confidence was reflected in her jumping as she completely lacked fluency at the hurdles which weren't omitted. The trainer won this race last season but he has not yet been successful with his current crop as he is without a winner from fourteen starts this term. While Army Of One ought not to be written off at this juncture, she still has enough to prove on all known evidence.
Awkwafina bf S Curling f6-0-1 (64) 72
Kyllachy (Muhtathir){1-l}(1.33) 2/1 Lone Ranger 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2013
Awkwafina placed third in a Leopardstown maiden for Jack Davison, and was not disgraced in a soft ground Naas handicap off 69. He changed hands for €8,500 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale and will be Sam Curling's first juvenile hurdler since Gemara finished unplaced at Down Royal November 2011. Awkwafina's dam is a full-sister to maiden hurdle placed Lone Ranger and is herself, out of a half-sister to Prix Tanerko winner Baguette Magique. However, sire Kyllachy has a lamentable record in the division and since 2008/09, has failed to produce a winning juvenile from twenty-four offspring. Awkwafina's profile is patchy at best and she is not an assured stayer for the discipline.
Dashing Diamond bf Martin Hassett f13-0-4 (62) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Excelebration (Raven's Pass){20-d}(7.00) 3/2 Falling Rain 2nd 3YO Hurdle, Fontainebleu 2015
Dashing Diamond had feasible form prospects going into her hurdling debut at Tipperary in October, although she was her trainer's first runner in the sphere and her sire's record with juvenile hurdlers zero wins from forty-five starts. Nevertheless, she was backed as though defeat was out of the question which suggests a good run was expected from the locally trained filly. Unfortunately, her stride was completely wrong approaching the first where she got in way too close and took a rolling fall. Thankfully she emerged unscathed and after a six week break, ran her best flat race to date when a neck second at Dundalk over twelve furlongs. That effort still leaves something to find with the principles here and her overall profile is not particularly encouraging but it will be intriguing to see if the market support at Tipperary is repeated.
Reserves
Master Rocco chg P C O'Connor f13-0-1 (52) 59
Dawn Approach (Shirocco){14-c}(0.68) 2/2 Mourad 2nd Champion 4YO Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2009
Last seen finishing a sixteen length ninth of nine in a Chelmsford claimer, but even if forgiving that run, his best effort, a second at the venue in a mile handicap off 56, is still short of the standard required here. Ex-Jane Chapple-Hyam horses have a 28.57% winners to runners rate but the improvement rate is modest and the new trainer has yet to saddle a juvenile hurdler. None of Dawn Approach's juvenile hurdlers have won or improved for the switch between codes, but Shirocco has a 27.78% strike rate as a damsire and the dam's sister produced the top class Mourad.
Saeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65
Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
Saeer achieved only a modest third at Chester in four outings for Sir Michael Stoute and at 9,000 guineas, is one of the more inexpensive juveniles to leave that yard. King's Parade fetched the same amount before winning in 2010 but allowing for inflation, Saeer would be the cheapest such horse to score in the division. Australia has a respectable record in the division and the dam is a half-sister to winning novice hurdler Persian Warrior from the family of Restraint Of Trade (3/1) and Grumeti (4/3).
Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) 81
Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/raamez
François Rohaut has been the source of six juvenile hurdlers since 2009, but none of them, including €220,000 purchase Military Bowl, were able to win during their opening campaigns. Raamez, a winner at Nantes last October, sold for roughly a tenth of that price at the Tattersalls Autumn sale but might have attracted more bids but for a recent dip in form. Sea The Stars has a very respectable history as a sire in the division but the damline is considerably less enticing and Nayef is only one winner from ten as a damsire.
Strong prospects
1. Palm Beach
Reasonable prospects
2. Zoffanien
3. Complete Fantasy
4. Star Of Cashel
Feasible prospects
5. Army Of One
6. On Guard
7. Dashing Diamond
Moderate prospects
8. Raamez (R)
9. Saeer (R)
10. Willywampus
11. Call Me Rocky
12. Tintean Fein
Negligible prospects
13. Awkwafina
14. Master Rocco
15. Thekeyisnottopanic
16. Townes
17. Self Assessed
18. Stage Power
19. The Copper Kid
This is a busy week coming up so no idea when the reviews for today's races will be done. Hopefully, the sooner the better, but they will have to wait for the time being. I have previewed tomorrow's contests at Leopardstown and Kempton (which to be honest, looks better than the possible Grade One at Chepstow). I will try to get the Wetherby race done for this evening and just do a rough draft for Chepstow to be bolstered and posted should the meeting pass inspection. If it does not then I might use the morning to review Zanahiyr's race before moving onto the remainder of the week's contests which could see some interesting juveniles take on older horses.
PUNCHESTOWN
The maiden hurdle at Leopardstown tomorrow is comfortably one of the most influential of the season and has a better record of producing good hurdlers than many pattern and winners' races. Since 2004, it has delivered a Triumph Hurdle winner in Ivanovich Gorbatov, two winners of the Punchestown Champion 4YO in Hisaabaat and Quatre Heures, and Sir Erec and Mr Adjudicator each won the Spring Juvenile Hurdle since its upgrade to Grade One. Other classy sorts include Ebadiyan, Let's Dance, Plinth, Thousand Stars, Flaxen Flare Sky's The Limit and Buiseness Sivola. While as a rule of thumb, experience generally pays, the past eight winners of this contest were all making their hurdling debuts. They also had a touch of class on the flat, bringing official marks ranging from 80 to 109. This season's newcomers look up to scratch with four rated eighty or above, and the 101 rated Iberia brings the highest mark to the sphere since Sir Erec won this race two years ago. Nevertheless, those with hurdles experience still have respectable form including Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr at Ballinrobe, and Ilmig's second to Druid's Altar at Punchestown ahead of the aforementioned. Leopardstown, a largely level racecourse with a slight rise in the straight, is fair in its nature and its clear round rate of 95.84% is broadly average. Though it can still take some getting as its winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.22 mean attest. The going is currently yielding to soft with occasional showers forecast in the meantime.
Triumph Hurdle
Coltor 66/1
Dark Voyager 66/1
Ilmig 100/1
Fred Winter
Dark Voyager 33/1
Flying Scotsman 33/1
Ilmig 33/1
Ahaziah gbg Mrs Denise Foster f10-0-0 (37) 56 j2-0-0 (-) 99 102
Alhebayeb (Owington){1-a}(3.00) 3/1 Good Buy Bailey's 4th Juvenile Hurdle, Taunton 1988
A lowly rated maiden after ten starts on the flat, Ahaziah jumped poorly when ninth on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in November. Keen in the early stages next time at Cork, he jumped better and was still in contention at two out, but would fade into a nineteen length fourth. It was a career best effort and there can be further improvement to come, but he is still a long way from being competitive in this company.
Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f10-0-7 (80) 86 j2-0-0 (-) 100 116
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Charlie Bassett has yet to win in ten starts on the flat but has been running to a respectable level. He was in the process of running a decent race on his hurdles bow at Down Royal and looked likely to finish second to Longclaw before being brought down two out. Following three runs on the flat, he returned to hurdling at Fairyhouse two weeks ago where he jumped well after the first two flights and was still in touch three furlongs out. However, his questionable stamina told as he faded late on and finished a thirteen length fourth. While the yard took this race in 2006, it has not reached the frame in seven subsequent attempts and Charlie Bassett will need a sharper test.
Coltor bg D K Weld f3-1-0 (86) 83
Free Eagle (Red Ransom){14-c}(0.89) 2/2 Limini 1st Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Dermot Weld has not saddled a juvenile hurdler since February 2015, but while he took Group Ones in three different countries this season on the flat, he does have a strong historical record in the sphere. Unaccompanied, Party Airs and Iron County Xmas won graded level juvenile hurdles as did Hisaabaat who was unseated when introduced in this contest in 2011. Despite failing to win, Proper Article (fifth in the Fred Winter), Majestic Concorde (a future big handicap winner) and Diplomat (who eventually won a Grade One hurdle in America) all made their hurdling debuts in this race. Coltar made his racecourse debut in late August and after twice finishing fifth in maidens at Navan, he broke his duck at the third time of asking in an eleven furlong Killarney maiden on soft ground in early October. Sporting a visor and noseband, Coltor was slow to start and ran very green. He made his challenge turning for home and while not completely clued up on the game, was able to stay on to lead inside the final furlong and was a couple of lengths up on the line. The runner up has since scored in a Gowran maiden and the third has placed in this sphere. Free Eagle has made a promising start to his career in the division having produced two winners from his first six runners, and the damline is also encouraging. Along with being out of a half-sister to the dam of Limini, the likes of useful juvenile Call My Guest (3/1) and the yard's brilliant stayer and Champion Hurdle sixth Vintage Crop (4/2) also show on the pedigree. Coltor is a very intriguing recruit to the division and although he might not be forward enough at this stage to do himself justice, he is still entitled to respect.
Complete Fiction bg Sabrina J Harty f8-0-1 (54) 60
Make Believe (Dubai Destination){19-c}(0.78) 0.5 Never Do Nothing 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2020
Beginning his career in the summer for Dermot Murphy, Complete Fiction's best placing was a thirteen length third at Leopardstown on his second start. Since then, he has not placed better than eighth in six outings including last time on his stable debut. Sabrina Harty does well in the division with three winners from eleven and an improvement rate of 80%. However, her better horses were rated much higher on the flat and neither of her runners in this race fared well. Make Believe has already produced a winner from his first crop and Complete Fiction is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers. However, his flat form is poor and he would be of more interest in a much lesser event.
Dark Voyager bg W P Mullins f7-1-1 (77) 76 j2-0-1 (-) 123 128
Raven's Pass (Montjeu){7-a}(0.83) 0.5 A Wave Of The Sea 1st Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
Willie Mullins has won this race twice in recent years with Meri Devie and Mr Adjudicator winning in 2016 and 2017. Both of these were having their first starts over hurdles and of the yard's eleven runners since 2005, only Buiseness Sivola, fifth at odds-on, had ran over hurdles for the yard. Dark Voyager's flat career ended with a win at Galway in August off a mark of 70 and being a half-brother to the high class juvenile A Wave Of The Sea, was well fancied to make a winning hurdles debut at Ballinrobe. However, in opposition that day was Zanahiyr. He set a steady gallop, jumped well apart from at the last and appeared to be travelling best at one stage, trading at 1.2 in-running. He did not appear to give his best in the final battle but was far from disgraced going down by just over two lengths. Next time at Punchestown, he once again started favourite and jumped well for the most part until getting tired in the closing stages. Dark Voyager definitely has class about him but his resolve and, more pertinently his stamina, are questionable. While he should see out a contest which places less emphasis on endurance, a large field contest at Leopardstown would not provide him with such comforts.
Firstman bg A J Martin f12-2-3 FrF 79.2 (69) 76
Zoffany (Teofilo){23}(0.45) 3/1 Samaurai Way 1st Handicap Chase (119), Southwell 2010
Firstman won his final two starts for Jean-Claude Rouget, namely a maiden at Pau in January and a Vichy claimer in May which saw him leave France for €27,016. While his French form gave him an equivalent rating of 79.2, four runs in Ireland have seen him drop to 69 which is a mark which saw him beaten by over nine lenghts at Dundalk eleven days ago. Zoffany is a useful sire in the division and there are winners further back on the damline, but Firstman makes no immediate promise. Especially as his trainer has saddled no first-time-out winners from sixty attempts since 2008/09.
Flying Scotsman bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien 6-2-0 (87) 86 j2-0-1 (-) 105 109
Galileo (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 3/1 Sir Frank Morgan 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2015
Flying Scotsman has a flat rating of 87 courtesy of a quickfire double at the Galway Festival which included a win over Dark Voyager. He was unfancied ahead of his jumps debut at Punchestown where he finished fifth and was beaten by over thirty lengths. His chances there were heavily compromised by forcing to check at the second, but this poor round was entirely of his own doing. Next time at Cork, he drifted again from 6/4 to 3/1. Sweating up beforehand, he approached his hurdles with little enthusiasm and was either close to, or untidy over most of the flights. Held up in midfield, he never landed a blow on the leaders, but he did pass beaten rivals in the straight and was clear of the remainder. More assured jumping is fundamental to his future prospects and a sounder surface will also be helpful. He would not be written off entirely given that the yard previously won this race with Sir Erec for the same owner. Nevertheless, the yards experienced runners both failed to breach the first then and Flying Scotsman would be of more interest sent handicapping.
French Aseel chg Miss Ellmarie Holden f9-1-4 FrF (82.5) 84
French Fifteen (Green Tune){31}(1.40) 3/1 French Crusader 2nd Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (135), Newbury 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/french-aseel
It has been months in the making, but French Aseel is finally going to make his hurdling debut and in one of life's amusing coincidences, he is set to face the similarly named French Asset. While of a similar flat standard to his nearly namesake, French Aseel managed to win a race which came by way of a six length victory at Lyon on his seasonal reappearance. He has subsequently ran creditably without winning and was last seen finishing fifth in a 1,300 metre Saint Cloud handicap off an equivilent 83.6 where he finished strongly having been given too much to do. Ellmarie Holden has done well with her handful of juvenile hurdlers with three of the five winning including sole previous French import Lachares who won twice after costing just €6,000. French Aseel left Philippe Decouz for ten times that amount at the Arqana Deauville Summer Sale but his oft delayed debut was put off further when getting withdrawn at Cork earlier this month due to a Stone Bruise. French Fifteen has yet to be tested as a sire in GB or Ireland, but he has had winning juveniles in France at a lower level his father, Turtle Bowl, is two winners from three in this division. Jumpers don't appear in the pedigree until the third dam who produced the capable hurdler French Crusade, and is the third dam of the magnificent De Bon Coeur. French Aseel is another very interesting recruit but the time it has taken to finally get him to the racecourse is somewhat troubling.
French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Runner-up on his penultimate start for Sir Michael Stoute, French Asset was easy to back ahead of his hurdles debut at Galway in October where he his jumping was marked largely by greenness and he began to lose touch a half mile from home before finishing ahead of only one rival. He once again lacked fluency on his latest outing at Fairyhouse and finished tailed off. He has not come remotely close to matching the best of his flat ability thus far.
Hisnameis Mrdevitt bg Peter Fahey f10-2-0 (67) 72
Epaulette (Diesis){20-c}(0.87) 2/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
Peter Fahey saddled Room To Roam to finish second in this contest three years ago at a big price and Hisnameis Mrdebitt will likely also start unfancied. Twice a winner on the flat for John James Feane, his first success came at Limerick in June of 58 and he followed up Gowran Park nine days later. He was not disgraced off 73 at Leopardstown at the end of July but has been lacklustre in three subsequent outings. Epaulette's sole juvenile hurdler failed to win in four starts and his is not a prominent sireline. He is out of a sister to the dam of a winning claimer in France and the mighty Min appears in the distance of the damline at 4/4. Hisnameis Mrdevitt is not a forlorn recruit to the sphere but his profile and form are too patchy to warrant observation in this contest.
Iberia bc J Halley f8-1-3 (101) 108
Galileo (Danehill){8-f}(0.73) 3/2 Addicted 4th Juvenile Hurdle, Wincanton 2006
John Halley has been the recipient of fifteen ex-Ballydoyle horses since 2008/09, including the 103 rated Minneapolis. However, only Foreign Secretary has been a winner and none improved for the switch between codes. With an official mark 101, Iberia is rated higher than most juvenile hurdlers and while his best form came at two, most notably when finishing third in the Royal Lodge Stakes, his reappearance in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was still commendable. He hung left when undertaking pacemaking duties in the Irish Derby and his only other start saw him finish last of ten in a listed race at Leopardstown. Poor though these efforts may be, the RPRs he recorded would still be the strongest in this field. Galileo wins his fair share of races in the division but his improvement rate is just 30.77% and there is a dearth of jumpers on the damline. Furthermore, that he has not joined Joseph O'Brien is quite telling insofar as his esteem is concerned.
Ilmig bg Mrs John Harrington f2-1-1 (-) 83 j2-0-1 (-) 114 120
Galileo (Empire Maker){A4}(0.96) 3/2 Lorikeet 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2005
Ilmig started off as a Ballydoyle horse, but began his racing career in early October with Jessica Harrington. He was already off the mark on his second start and well supported ahead of his debut at Punchestown. But for one error, he put in a good round of jumping on and finished a one paced second to Druid's Altar with Dark Voyager and Flying Scotsman upwards of seventeen lengths behind. He started odds-on next time at Fairyhouse and jumped into the lead half a mile out while travelling well within himself. However, he found himself outpaced on the turn for home and would be left behind by his pacier opponents. It was a similar case on his Punchestown outing and being a flat winner over fourteen furlongs on soft ground, he looks likely to need a sterner test than that afforded by Fairyhouse. Tomorrow's conditions ought to suit him better in a race won by the yard by Out Voted in 2008. However, the trainer also saddled twelve losers in the contest and her strike rate in December and January is just 5.17%, compared to 13.79% through the remainder of the season.
Loved Out bg Thomas Mullins f5-0-1 (66) 68 j1-0-1 (-) 105 103
Requinto (Mister Baileys){10-b}(1.15) 3/1 Brightner 1st Novices' Hurdle, Taunton 1988
Loved Out was no better than a fair maiden on the flat, but by dint of poor opposition, was backed into 5/4 favouritism ahead of his hurdles bow at Punchestown last month. His jumping was not good however as he steadied into his early flights and made several errors ranging from getting to close or going too big. Though he started off prominently, these mistakes cost him ground and while he still tracked the leaders, he also gave them too much rope in a critical stage of the race. It is possible that he could have won with a more assertive ride, but this should not detract from the fact that his jumping was an even greater factor in his underperformance. Loved Out is not devoid of ability, limited though it may be, and he can build on that effort with experience. Furthermore, Peckham Springs, who was over four lengths behind Loved Out in third won next time at Fairyhouse ahead of Ilmig. Thomas Mullins' two runners in this contest each finished third so while there is a fair amount to find on form, Loved Out's cause is not entirely hopeless.
Royal Marksman bg Thomas Coyle f7-0-1 (41) 48
Fulbright (Woodman){14-c}(1.67) 2/1 Beseiged 1st Handicap Hurdle (110), Market Rasen 2005
Just the one son of Exceed And Excel's seven to have tried has produced a winning juvenile and Fulbright's first attempt in Royal Marksman looks unlikely to double the tally. His best effort was a third off 45 at Dundalk in late October and the yard has yet to score in this division.
Trebizond bg Henry De Bromhead Unraced
Golden Horn (Night Shift){4-n}(1.25) 0.5 Burns Night 1st Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2013
Initially costing Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, Trebizond was knocked down for £34,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale. A half-brother to the dam of Palace Pier and to the winner of a moderate handicap hurdle winner, he joins a yard who was successful in 2019 with Aspire Tower and Havingagoodtime, but otherwise has a low strike rate in the field at 8.33%. Golden Horn is the type to do well as a sire of juveniles and his runner to date, Topaki Star, has been a winner. Racecourse debutants have a moderate record in the division although Sea Beat did finish fourth in the 2013 renewal of this race and Rachael Blackmore is an interesting booking.
Next In Line bf James M Barrett f7-2-1 (80) 84
Excelebration (Makfi){1-e}(2.43) 2/2 Voix du Soir 1st Handicap Hurdle (121), Dieppe 2020
The cross of Excelebration and Makfi is about as dreadful as one could find for the division. However, as Dutch Admiral and Awkwafina have shown this season, dreadful is not the same as hopeless. Next In Line landed a double within the space of a week during the summer, following a Gowran Park win off 65 with success at Galway off 73. She disappointed next time at Tramore but was better on his return at Dundalk a month ago when second in an extended ten furlong handicap off 80. None of the trainer's six juvenile hurdlers have won in fourteen attempts and none of the sire's fifteen have won in forty-five. The ground and trip should not been too much of an issue, but her overall profile is patchy and a tendency to take a keen hold will be detrimental here.
Poetica bf John Joseph Hanlon f6-0-1 (54) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Lope De Vega (Motivator){10}(1.22) 0.5 Lilypad 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Uttoxeter 2020
Poetica raced six times on the flat for Mark Johnson with her best performance coming when just over two lengths fourth in a Chelmsford handicap off 58. She since left for £3,500 guineas at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale and was unfancied ahead of her hurdling debut Cork. Following a mistake at the first, her saddle slipped at the second flight of hurdles and an error strewn round was concluded with her unseating three from home. While that run can probably be ignored, she still has plenty to prove in this field.
Pushover grf Noel C Kelly f6-0-0 (56) 57
Hellvelyn (Petorius){8-k}(3.00) 1/0 Soft Touch 1st Novices' Hurdle, Worcester 1999
Initially rated 59 after four starts for Steph Hollinshead, Pushover's Irish career has seen her finish last in both starts in Dundalk handicaps. Her dam won a poor novices' hurdle, but there are stamina concerns for this newcomer who already has to overcome a huge class defecit.
Reserves
Dashing Diamond bf Martin Hassett f13-0-4 (62) 69 j2-0-0 (-) 0 ?
Excelebration (Raven's Pass){20-d}(7.00) 3/2 Falling Rain 2nd 3YO Hurdle, Fontainebleu 2015
Showed that her Tipperary plunge had some merit when running creditably at Listowel yesterday.
Laralei bf Noel C Kelly f6-0-1 (52) 54 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Hot Streak (Mujadil){7}(1.86) 3/1 Double Account 1st Handicap Hurdle (114), Huntingdon 2003
Jumped atrociously and was detached early on during her hurdling debut at Fairyhouse.
Duck And Vanish bg Denis Gerard Hogan f5-0-2 (72) 77
Lope De Vega (Shaamit){10}(1.67) 0.5 The Tiddly Tadpole 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Hereford 2012
Broadly consistent in four outings this season for William Haggas, he was twice runner-up in twelve furlong maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. Fetching 13,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he joins a yard which gets winners in the sphere, but with a poor strike rate and an improvement rate of 28.57%. Duck And Vanish is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers and Lope De Vega gets winners, albeit with only a fair record overall. Not the worst newcomer to the sphere but Duck And Vanish is known to hang and has already undergone two wind operations.
Strong prospects
1. Coltor
Reasonable prospects
2. French Aseel
3. Dark Voyager
4. Ilmig
5. Loved Out
Feasible prospects
6. Trebizond
7. Flying Scotsman
8. Charlie Bassett
9. Iberia
Moderate prospects
10. Dashing Diamond (R)
11. Hisnameis Mrdevitt
Negligible prospects
12. Ahaziah
13. Next In Line
14. Duck And Vanish (R)
15. French Asset
16. Complete Fiction
17. Firstman
18. Poetica
19. Pushover
20. Royal Marksman
21. Laralei (R)
KEMPTON
In the years leading up to Kempton's juvenile becoming an introductory contest in 2016, it was won by some useful types including Starluck, Irish Saint and Bivouac. Its new conditions have not been too detrimental to the race's quality, with Master Blueyes and Redicean going on to win the course's Adonis Hurdle in February. The winners' mean and median seasonal RPRs of 136 and 137 indicate that the race usually goes to a decent type and this year's renewal looks well up to scratch. Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have each landed this contest on multiple occasions and are all set to be represented with live prospects tomorrow. Ambassador and Honneur d'Ajonc ran with credit on their respective hurdles debuts while Amy Murphy, Gary Moore and Olly Murphy introduce pricey flat recruits. Kempton is a fair and flat circuit but although it can appear to be a speed track, its winning DIs of 0.98 median, 1.16 mean, are lower than average and the case remains when compared to the average runner. While this is due in part to the quality of horse its races attract, Kempton is a course which can become testing on softer ground. Nevertheless, its clear round rate of 96.86% and completion rate of 91.55% are both above average, emphasising the fair nature of the venue. The going is currently good to soft and while showers are expected overnight, it is forecast to be dry from 8am onwards.
Triumph Hurdle
Heross Du Seuil 33/1
Fred Winter
Her Indoors 25/1
Alborkan bg Amy Murphy f8-2-3 (75) 80
Joshua Tree (One Cool Cat){13-c}(0.60) 4/1 Liwali 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Pau 2002
During the summer, Amy Murphy won four races in the division. Three with Soldier On Parade and another with Topkapi Star. Alborkan was offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and the winning bid of 38,000 guineas was made by Venetia Williams. While Ms Williams is no slouch when it comes to training juveniles, Alborkan has returned to his initial home. His latest three outings on the flat were decided by a neck or less, and Alborkan got the best of two of these battles including at Kempton over eleven furlongs, and when last seen at Yarmouth over ten heavy furlongs. The latter contest was a three way go and Alborkan proved himself tougher than the proverbial old boots when fending off a subsequent winner to win on the nod. His rating of 75 looks a fair reflection of his abilities and he should have no problems getting the trip over hurdles. Joshua Tree has only had the one juvenile hurdler thus far, but sons of Montjeu invariably make good stallions in the division including the likes of Authorized, Camelot, Motivator and Pour Moi. This is a tough race in which to be introduced, but Alborkan's form is up to scratch, he has the right attitude, his trainer has been amongst the winners recently so he should not be underestimated.
Ambassador bg Dan Skelton f5-0-2 (61) 66 j1-0-1 (-) 106 107
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){19}(1.00) 2/2 Fin Vin De Leu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2010
Formerly with Richard Fahey and fetching £16,000 at the Goffs UK Silver Sale, Ambassador has the lowest flat rating in this line-up. Nevertheless, the yard sent the 67 rated Stephen Hero to finish second in this contest in 2013 and Ambassador's hurdling debut at Warwick was not without promise. Tracking the leader throughout, he was slightly baulked at the first and took a fairly keen hold early on. Though he was slightly big over the fourth and clumsy at the penultimate flight, he posted a respectable round of hurdling. He did little wrong when outjumped at the last or outbattled in the closing stages, and has set a nice foundation for his new career. Ambassador would be entitled to be competitive in ordinary company, however, he is unlikely to threaten the upper reaches of the division and this contest features some potentially useful types.
Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j1-0-0 (-) 78 85
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven attempts on the flat, but went into his hurdling career with a succession of runner-up spots and a rating of 76. Though he was suffering a case of seconditis and traded as low as 1.03 when gubbed at Kempton, any suggestion that he might be ungenuine would be an unjust accusation. Nevertheless, starting in the Summit Hurdle, he was thrown in at the deep end and he did himself no favours by being keen early on or jumping in a novicey style. He lost his position turning for home and ultimately finished a tired horse. On breeding, there is little reason for him to surpass his flat ability and unless he improves drastically for the experience, his prospects might hinge on the type of rating he eventually receives.
Heross Du Seuil bg Nicky Henderson f1-1-0 (-) -
Rail Link (Equerry){u}(3.00) 2/2 Defi Du Seuil 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/heross-du-seuil
Mickaël Seror has, in recent years, supplied the division with two useful juveniles in Fanfan du Seuil and Call Me Lord, and two of his exports are set to make their GB debuts in this contest. The first of the pair, Heross du Seuil, won his sole outing in an AQPS flat race at Moulins back in August. Settled in midfield, he went to the front turning in and ran out a comfortable three length winner. The form does not amount to much as the race has produced just the one minor winner, but he won in pleasing fashion. Three of Nicky Henderson's five ex-French bumper recruits, Vasco du Ronceray, Domperignon du Lys and Grand Roi, have been useful winners and all were successful first time out. Furthermore, although Paros disappointed at Sandown, his other two juveniles this season have won and he also took this race with Charli Parcs and Bivouac in recent years. Just one of Rail Link's sixteen juveniles have been winners in GB/IRE, but his record with three-year-olds in France is a more respectable with a 25% winners to runners rate. His dam finished second over hurdles and half-sister was runner-up in a bumper. However, it gets more interesting beyond this as the dam is also a half-sister to Tommy Whittle second Catamaran du Seuil, and to the dam of Triumph Hurdle winner Defi du Seuil. This is a tough first assignment but Heross Du Seuil is unexposed, has reportedly schooled well and has a most inriguing profile.
Honneur d'Ajonc bg Mrs Jane Williams j1-0-1 (-) 109 113
Diamond Boy (April Night){8-i}(1.00) 0.5 Destin d'Ajonc 1st Prix Pride Of Kildare, Auteuil 2016
Racecourse debutants for Nick and Jane Williams have been a common feature of this season and Honneur d'Ajonc attracted support ahead of his pleasing introduction at Exeter last month. Apart from being big at the first and getting close to the third and fifth, he put in a decent round of jumping first time and he travelled nicely throughout. While he never looked like threatening the Monmiral, subsequently an impressive winner of the Summit Hurdle, he maintained a prominent position and was always doing enough to repel the challenges for second place. Honneur d'Ajonc has solid credentials but does look the type to develop with age and would probably conditions better in Chepstow's Finale Hurdle should that meeting go ahead.
Jalwan bg Gary Moore f8-0-2 (75) 79
Wicked Strong (Cherokee Run){8-h}(3.57) US pedigree
Purchased by and to run in the ownership of Noel Fehily, eight race maiden Jalwan joined Gary Moore from the John Butler yard for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Despite not picking up a contest, he has run very consistently in races of around a mile mark and the form has generally been solid for the level. The furthest he raced has been over nine and a half furlongs but while he was closing at the end on that occasion, it was likely more a case of the frontrunners slowing rather than him finding an extra gear. Stallion Wicked Strong has his first crop of jumpers this season. A runner up in the Travers Stakes, he never won beyond nine furlongs and neither yet have any of his offspring although his sire Hard Spun did produce Lil Rockerfeller. Damsire Cherokee Run has also had few descendants in the division, but one of them was the useful Unanimite. Being of American stock, there are no jumpers on the damline. There is a distinct lack of stamina and the closest black type relative is Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby at 4/4. No juvenile since 2008/09 started their career with John Butler and Jalwan does not fit the profile of one that can obviously thrive in the sphere. Gary Moore sent Beat The Judge to win the 2018 edition of this contest at 25/1, but his other eight runners have been beaten and this year's renewal looks much stronger.
More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Five runs as a two-year-old culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, More Than A Prince has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.
Royaume Uni bbg Gary Moore f3-1-0 FrF 36 (79.2) 75 j1-0-0 (-) 88 90
Galileo (Lagunas){4-r}(0.58) 1/2 Nordano 3rd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/royaume-uni
Royaume Uni won one of his three starts on the flat for Andre Fabre and he ran to marks approaching 80. He is also from the family of fair juvenile Nordano and has joined a yard which enjoys success in the division. However, there was a decided lack of fluency on his hurdling debut at Sandown and he was a beaten horse by the distance. He looks like the yard's first string on jockey bookings and the yard's flat imports tend to improve for their debut outings. Nevertheless, this will be very necessary given the substandard nature of his Sandown performance.
Siroco Jo cg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1
Hurricane Cat (Vertical Speed){4-r}(1.86) 1/1 Cyclone Jo 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/siroco-jo
Paul Nicholls has won this race with Vicenzo Mio, Irish Saint and Ranjaan while Thyme White finished second last year as did San Benedeto who made his stable debut in the 2014 renewal. Siroco Jo comes into the race after a solitaty start which saw him finish second in the Prix de l'Orbiquet at Clairefontaine at the beginning of August. While he was recieving weight from the first and third, the former had won last time at Le Lion d'Angers ahead of Hystery Bere before finishing fifth in a listed hurdle at Auteuil, while the latter had finished fourth in the listed Prix Go Ahead. Setting off into a clear lead and taking a keen hold, Siroco Jo was decidedly green throughout. Jumping left over the first three, he ran wide on the turns and began to steady into his hurdles which saw him forfeit the lead. He got in close to three out, but was decent over the last two and though relegated to third turning in, he battled to regain second on the run-in and only went down by a head on the line. Given the blatant nature of his inexperience, it was a fine debut effort to split the two and he may have won had he been quicker to get the hang of racing. Sire Hurricane Cat has had just the two juvenile hurdlers in GB/IRE, but one of them was the dual winning Thounder and he has a good winners to runners rate of 29.03% in France. Siroco Jo's full-sister won a conditions hurdle at Compiegne and his grandam was a half-sister to Prix des Drags winner Indien Bleu and decent three-year-old Dandy Bleu. He is sourced by the aforementioned Mickaël Seror and his aforementioned graduates, Call Me Lord and Fanfan du Seuil, also had hurdles experience before crossing La Manche. Siroco Jo showed definite signs of ability on his debut and if he turns up at Kempton slightly less backward, he poses a serious threat. Notwithstanding, his jumping out to the left needs to have been ironed out in the interim as it will not help him at Kempton.
Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j1-0-0 96 100
Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and though his racing on better ground on that occasion may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of £36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby last month and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. He might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. However, there was little encouragement to be drawn from his debut performance alone and tomorrow's conditions are highly unlikely to suit.
Her Indoors bf Alan King 6-1-2 (76) 80 j1-0-1 (-) 119 117
Raven's Pass (Zafonic){22-d}(2.60) 2/2 Next Round 1st Prix Predicateur (L,126), Auteuil 2014
The listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree had been the target for Her Indoors before she had even run on the flat this season, let alone registering her first success in a twelve furlong Lingfield handicap in September. Though representing a yard with a strong record in that contest, her SP was three times her morning price of 6/1. She was not the fluent jumper on her hurdling debut as she needed encouragement into her hurdles and got in close to the second and fourth while landing steeply at the last. She was no match for the comfortable winner, but was able to out-speed Megan from the elbow. The diminished jumping test certainly worked in her favour and it is unlikely that she would have finished second with a full compliment of hurdles to jump. Nevertheless, she would still have been a long way clear of the remainder and is entitled to become more proficient with experience. Furthermore, Alan King's eight runners in this race have collected three wins and two seconds since 2008 and this contest is the first choice from a series of entries held during the festive period. These conditions are likely to play to her strengths and she receives a useful sex allowance, although she will still need to improve her hurdling.
Sarceaux grf Alexandra Dunn f3-0-0 FrF 30.5 (67.1) 62
Rajsaman (Elusive City){16-g}(0.67) 0.5 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/sarceaux
Five of the sixteen Mikel Delzangles exports have been winners in this division, including 2012 Fred Winter runner-up Edeymi. While four of his former inmates fetched upwards of €100,000 at the Arqana sales, Sarceaux left the yard for just €16,016 following a claimer at Dieppe back in July. Finishing fourth on that occasion, the form has not been particularly well advertised and the runner-up, Highlander Madrik may be a familiar name as he was tailed off behind Talking About You at Fontwell in September. Sarceaux did win on her penultimate start at Le Croise Laroche and the form has a better shape to it as the runner-up won next time while the third has since won four times and is currently rated 80. Sarceaux did not look the most determined on that occasion but it can be noted that though her win came on good, her defeat last time was on soft ground. Rajsaman scored in the sphere at the third attempt with stablemate Jersey Grey and Sarceaux's half-brother Saint Contest had fair placed form as a juvenile hurdler. Sarceaux does not have the worst profile, but horses bought through French claimers win less than their fair share and others in this field have stronger cases.
Sly Minx bf Chris Gordon f8-1-3 (74) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 26 27
Sixties Icon (Thousand Words){4-i}(0.57) 3/1 Sattelight PU Mares' Novices' Hurdle, Wincanton 2004
Sly Minx was beaten by around nine lengths in a listed race at Lingfield back in June and that was the margin she won a Catterick maiden the following month. While she is by Sixties Icon, a sire with two winners in the sphere this season, there is nothing on the damline suggesting that she can make a hurdler and this was reflected in a very poor round of jumping when hopelessly tailed off at Fontwell. Chris Gordon saddled King Cnut to finish third of sixth in the 2017 renewal of this contest, but while Sly Minx might be happier on less testing ground, she still has a great deal to prove.
Strong prospects
1. Heross Du Seuil
Reasonable prospects
2. Siroco Jo
3. Her Indoors
4. Alborkan
Feasible prospects
5. Honneur d'Ajonc
6. Ambassador
Moderate prospects
7. Royaume Uni
8. Warranty
9. Sarceaux
Negligible prospects
10. Jalwan
11. Sly Minx
12. More Than A Prince
13. Cloud Thunder
PUNCHESTOWN
The maiden hurdle at Leopardstown tomorrow is comfortably one of the most influential of the season and has a better record of producing good hurdlers than many pattern and winners' races. Since 2004, it has delivered a Triumph Hurdle winner in Ivanovich Gorbatov, two winners of the Punchestown Champion 4YO in Hisaabaat and Quatre Heures, and Sir Erec and Mr Adjudicator each won the Spring Juvenile Hurdle since its upgrade to Grade One. Other classy sorts include Ebadiyan, Let's Dance, Plinth, Thousand Stars, Flaxen Flare Sky's The Limit and Buiseness Sivola. While as a rule of thumb, experience generally pays, the past eight winners of this contest were all making their hurdling debuts. They also had a touch of class on the flat, bringing official marks ranging from 80 to 109. This season's newcomers look up to scratch with four rated eighty or above, and the 101 rated Iberia brings the highest mark to the sphere since Sir Erec won this race two years ago. Nevertheless, those with hurdles experience still have respectable form including Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr at Ballinrobe, and Ilmig's second to Druid's Altar at Punchestown ahead of the aforementioned. Leopardstown, a largely level racecourse with a slight rise in the straight, is fair in its nature and its clear round rate of 95.84% is broadly average. Though it can still take some getting as its winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.22 mean attest. The going is currently yielding to soft with occasional showers forecast in the meantime.
Started raining over here 30 minutes ago and looks like it is down for the night, heavy going tomorrow at Leopardstown in my opinion. 20 minutes from track.
Bachelors Hall (26th December 2020)
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