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Thread: Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    It's the same reason why Kempton can be such a demanding track in terms of stamina requirements. They just go so quick, and can't afford to be too far away from the pace.
    Which is true yet the completion rate for juvenile hurdlers at Kempton is the fourth best in the UK at 91.35%. The key difference is probably the fact that while the average seasonal RPRs for those competing at Kempton is 100.28 (105 median), Southwell's is just 81.07 (86 median)

    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    It raises something else in my mind. Is there the potential for some research with regards frontrunners, behind the pace, midfield, held up, etc, and the relationship to results in juvenile hurdles. I'd expect it to be more pronounced than any other division barring perhaps Bumpers. Once again there will be a wide range by course/course type I'd imagine.
    Front runners do indeed have the best winning strike rate in three year old hurdles at 22.82% compared to bumper horses at 16.11% and handicap hurdlers at 13.17%. They also fare well in percentages of races won at 27.69%. The rates do drop slightly once the juveniles hit four as the win rates and percentage of races won by frontrunners falls behind those using the same tactics in handicap chases but they remain ahead of handicap hurdlers and bumper horses.

    There are most probably differences between courses which I might explore once there are a few other items knocked off my to-do list. Dave Renham has written some very good pieces on the effects of pace in National Hunt races so it would be interesting to see how juvenile hurdles stack up in isolation.

    I did have a look at winning DIs by pace among three year old juveniles since 2011/12 but while the median DIs make sense, the mean averages were unhelpful even after lobbing five percent off each end.



    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    And before you think it, It serves you right for spotting and raising more discussion points from your research!
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  2. #102
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    Since tomorrow's race at Southwell will not be previewed, I will have a look at the Triumph Hurdle markets as they currently stand.

    As a quick note on the wisdom of getting involved in the markets at this stage, here is a tidier table of the dates Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3s have made their hurdling debuts over the past thirty-six renewals.



    The dates shown in lime green denote a hurdling debut being made in France. Using the wayback machine, it is possible to find some archived ante-post lists. Of the recent winners whose careers began before this date, Countrywide Flame was available at 66/1 in October 2011 alongside Hi Note who is the dam of Hiconic who is the same price in contemporary lists. Peace And Co was not in the lists in October but he can be backed at 33/1 on the 11th of November. Nevertheless, it was known online that he would likely be competing in the UK as early as the 8th of August which illustrates that the ante-post lists are not at all exhaustive. Similarly, just because a horse is being listed by bookmakers, does not necessarily mean that it is sound or alive...

    In terms of updates since the last summary, Nicky Henderson's Paros, who was initially installed at 16/1, has been backed in from 33/1 to 25/1 while Hell Red for Paul Nicholls has leapfrogged stablemate Monmiral in being backed to 25/1 from 40/1. Heros d'Ainay remains prominent in the betting despite there being no indication whatsoever that he will be sold to run in the UK or Ireland this season. Prunay's (unknown) Prix Aguado form was given a boost yesterday as the fourth placed Baladin de Mesc won the listed Prix des Platanes while the runner-up Jeu de Paume finished third. Regarding the unlisted horses mentioned earlier in the thread, Hades paid tribute to Busselton (Joseph O'Brien) and State Man's (unknown) Prix Wild Monarch form by winning the first three-year-old chase of Auteuil's autumn season. It has emerged that Hope You Do, winner of his sole AQPS flat race, has joined the Phillip Hobbs yard.

    Four new horses have been added to the latest ante-post lists. At the time of writing, they are all known to be both alive and at National Hunt yards and two of them have already raced over hurdles in Ireland.

    50/1 Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG (German official rating) 39.5 (BHA 87) RPR 81
    Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
    Juveniles claimed out of French flat races by David Pipe has been a recent topic of discussion and one of them has found himself on the Triumph Hurdle ante-post list. Making his seasonal debut on the 17th of August, the German bred and trained Adagio ran out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. Behind him that day were four previous winners who each had official equivilant ratings exceeding 70. Adagio's sire, the 2009 German Derby winner Wiener Walzer, had his first jumps winner on Sunday when Adagio's full-sister Ad Acta won a weak maiden at Vertou. His third dam produced Arcadio and is the great-granddam of the mercurial Supreme Novice winner Labaik. He won his claimer well enough but the form has not held up thus far. He cost €25,555 after his race but he would not be the most expensive horse of his type in recent years and while Martin Pipe won a Champion Hurdle with Make A Stand, none of the eighteen horses claimed out of French races since 2011/12 has achieved a RPR exceeding 109. He looks like he could provide some fun days out for his new owners but talks of the Triumph are fanciful.

    50/1 Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott f6-0-2 (84) 83 j2-2-0 (-) 125
    Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
    Longclaw has done little wrong in winning both of his hurdles races this season. His jumping has not been perfect but it is certainly above average for this time of year and the form of his first race has been paid compliments. He was left with very little to beat last time at Down Royal as the field was heavily depleted by a loose horse but was travelling best before the major incidents and would have been the likest winner. He has yet to be fully tested and while he has achieved nothing beyond a mid-120s rating thus far, his flat rating is less than a stone behind the best that has been brought by any Gordon Elliott's flat recruits. This is still early in the season and while the yard's Chief Justice was seen out as early as the ninth of September, most of the better horses come out in the the thick of the season and along with Quilixios already in the yard, there are probably a few more recruits to come. There can also be reservations about the US centric pedigree as while he has had no problems winning a pair of ordinary contests, seeing out the most competitive juvenile hurdles on softer ground is a different matter. It is also worth remembering that after showing decent form as a two-year-old, he was disappointing on the flat on his return and he may be given to inconsistency. At this stage, the odds on offer for Longclaw are not ridiculous cramped because he has shown that he can win races over hurdles. By the same token however, they do not appear to be overly generous given his early emergence and overall profile.

    50/1 Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f7-0-5 (84) 86 j1-0-0 (-) 81
    Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
    Charlie Bassett was in the process of running a fine race on his debut at Down Royal but his effort was curtailed when he was almost taken out at the third last before being brought down at the penultimate flight. He certainly would have ran better than suggested by his RPR of 81... Noel Meade has a fantastic record with his juvenile hurdlers and wins more than his fair share of races in the division as well as improving his charges from the flat. However, while he can get useful types, he does not generally get the top class juveniles and has not won a graded race in the division since Sam Bass won at Fairyhouse in December 2011. Furthermore, Charlie Bassett is not an assured stayer on breeding and though his stamina has yet to be tested at Down Royal, he did not appear to be seeing out his races well on the flat. Charlie Bassett is capable of winning races over hurdles if last week's experiences have not soured him but he does not look like an obvious Triumph Hurdle horse.

    66/1 Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (80) 89
    Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
    At the time of writing, Red Missile is the only horse sold at last week to appear in the Triumph Hurdle ante-post lists and is currently available at 66/1. Racing on the flat for William Haggas, Red Missile got off the mark at the sixth attempt when lengthening nicely to win a twelve-furlong Lingfield maiden by six lengths in first time cheekpieces. The third placed that day has since won a maiden of his own and the form of the two handicaps he contested this season has stood up well. Battle Of Marengo produced two winners from six juvenile hurdlers in his first crop last season including triple winner Maria Magdalena, and his sole French hurdler last season was also a winner. Notnowcato has yet to have a winning juvenile as a damsire but was a respectable sire in his own right and Red Missile's dam is a half-sister to a winner in this division. William Haggas expats, which include Cracker Factory, Park Paddocks and Prabeni, have above average figures in juvenile hurdles and 52.38% of them also show improvement for the switch between codes. Lucinda Russell has not enjoyed the greatest of successes within the division with only three winners from twenty-seven juveniles and none since Lone Foot Laddie in April 2013. Nevertheless, she has a promising type in Red Missile and while talks of the Triumph are premature, it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

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  4. #103
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    The review for today's race at Southwell will appear tomorrow at the earliest. Given the carnage in the first two chases, I was not looking forward to that race but while it was a gruelling little contest, nobody appears to have been seriously hurt.

    As a follow up to yesterday's piece, here are three more French recruits who have not yet been listed in the Triumph ante-post lists. The following is not an endorsement and is solely for information purposes. Videos to the French races in question appear in the links.

    Nassalam chg Gary Moore j1-0-1
    Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
    Since the 2011/12 season, twenty-two of the forty-seven juvenile hurdlers whose careers began with Guillaume Macaire have won during their first campaigns and.80.85% of them achieved RPRs of 108 and above which is the strongest rate of any source. Hell Red is the only Macaire graduate mentioned thus far on these pages but another is Nassalam who has joined the Gary Moore yard. Nassalam finished runner up on his sole start over hurdles and that came in Clairefontaine's Prix du Douet at the end of June. A contest for hurdling newcomers, it does not have a history much richer than a midsummer race would afford although the 2014 renewal did see Triumph winner Peace And Co and the useful Ballotin fill the first two places. Pantxoa and Vicenzo Mio are other previous winners that went on to be successful juveniles in the UK. The first five pulled clear in this year's renewal although the form is only fair at this stage with the winner finishing last in a listed race, third placed Piriac a runner-up to Saint Sam while receiving five kilos and fourth placed Mistersister was seventh behind Saint Sam before winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer (he was purchased by Toby Jones afterwards for €16,006). Gary Moore is one of the leading trainers of juvenile hurdlers in the UK and while only six of his ninety-six juveniles since 2009/10 were sourced from French Hurdle races, all of them collected prize money and half of them won two races apiece. One of them, Botox Has, was also by Dream Well whose record with juveniles is well above average on both sides of the channel. Shirocco has also made a fine start as a damsire in the division and Nassalam can count the useful filly Msassa as his half sister and his dam was a sibling of winning hurdler Mountain Fighter. There are other horses with stronger form than Nassalam but it was a promising first effort and with his profile carrying plenty of substance, it would not be a surprise to see him doing well this season.

    Saint Sam bg Willie Mullins j3-2-0
    Saint des Saints (Linda's Lad){19-b}(0.67) 1/0 Ladeka 2nd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2013
    One of those horses with stronger form is the aforementioned Saint Sam who following a tepid debut at Dieppe, would gain victories in his next two starts. The first of those victories came at the end of June on his return to Dieppe where he put up a battling performance to win the Prix Soldat. While the field was strung out and he showed a nice attitude in winning that race, the subsequent form has not been anything special. However, his latest victory in the Prix de l'Oudon does carry more substance as he gave five kilos to runner up Piriac while third placed Horse Maha has since won at Dieppe by over five lengths while giving away three kilos. Saint des Saints is an exceptional jumps stallion who also does well with his three and four year olds while Linda's Lad has yet to have many opportunities as a damsire, he has produced three black type juveniles as a sire. Saint Sam's family is a strong one for the division. While his dam won only one of her fourteen stars over hurdles, she finished placed five times in pattern company. She is also a half sister to winning hurdler Miss Lino and to the dam of dual Grade One winning juvenile We Have A Dream. Other high class jumpers to appear on the damline are Champion Four Year Old Hurdle runner up Blood Cotil (4/3) Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil runner up Video Tape (5/2) 1995/96 French Champion Juvenile Villez (5/3) and Grade One winning Four-Year-Old and French Champion Hurdler Vaporetto (5/3). Derby third and top NH sire Presenting also appears at 5/4. Jean-Philippe Dubois has been the source of three UK/IRE juveniles thus far with two of them winning during their first seasons. Trainer Willie Mullins (Apple's Jade, Burning Victory, Footpad) needs no introduction but his Night And Day is currently his only horse on the Triumph lists at the moment. While Saint Sam has yet to produce anything definitively top class, his profile is considerably more compelling than that of his stablemate and as he has already shown himself to be a beautiful jumper of hurdles, he should be supplanting Night And Day before too long.

    Siroco Jo cg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1
    Hurricane Cat (Vertical Speed){4-r}(1.86) 1/1 Cyclone Jo 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2018
    Paul Nicholls already has Hell Red, Monmiral and Hacker des Places on the Triumph ante-post lists but it would not take much from Siroco Jo to get quoted alongside his stablemates. Another with just the sole start, Siroco Jo finished second in the Prix de l'Orbiquet at Clairefontaine at the beginning of last month. While he was recieving weight from the first and third, the former had won last time at Le Lion d'Angers ahead of Hystery Bere while the latter had finished fourth in the listed Prix Go Ahead. Given his conspicuous inexperience he was, it was a fine debut effort to split the two and he may have won had he been quicker to get the hang of racing. Those two did not quite uphold the form in Tuesday's Listed Prix des Platanes at Auteuil but Siroco Jo still has the scope to further improve. Sire Hurricane Cat has had just the two juvenile hurdlers in the UK but one of them was the dual winning Thounder and he has a respectable record in France. Siroco Jo's full-sister won a conditions hurdle at Compiegne and his grandam was a half-sister to Prix des Drags winner Indien Bleu and decent three-year-old Dandy Bleu. Paul Nicholls follows only Nicky Henderson when it comes to juvenile hurdlers in the UK and while only three Mickaël Seror graduates have ran in the UK thus far, Call Me Lord and Fanfan du Seuil have been very decent.

  5. #104
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    Probably the wisest horse was Agentleman who refused to race in the first!

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  7. #105
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    “Jump racing has been suspended at Southwell until further notice, following two further equine fatalities at the Nottinghamshire track on Thursday evening.“

  8. #106
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    I am not generally averse to using foul language within appropriate circumstances but I try to avoid it these days in public posts out of a general courtesy for those who may find it gratuitous within the topic of horse racing. Nevertheless, it took a great deal of restraint in this instance to moderate my language...

    Preview review
    I did not preview the race as I did not agree with it going ahead in the first place. While there were no reported injuries in this race, most of the horses were spent forces a fair way from home. Although Billy The Squid dispatched of Connor Brace in spectacular fashion at the last, it is only through sheer luck that all of the horses stayed on their feet as there was some very awkward and very tired jumping in the home straight. That two very experienced and typically safe jumpers would lose their lives earlier on the card is very sad. That those deaths came as no surprise to anybody is disgusting. That the meeting was allowed to go ahead while under investigation over safety concerns is nothing short of astonishing. There is somebody at the BHA whose job it is to avoid this incident but yesterday was an emphatic demonstration of profound ineptitude. If the BHA is to be taken remotely seriously insofar as welfare is concerned, then they clearly need to employ people who are not so pathetically unqualified.

    Race review
    While the standard of form was unexceptional, it had an intriguing line up for the level as it contained four runners who had been placed over jumps and three newcomers with winning flat form. However, the majority of the field finished tired and the time per furlong was slow despite the race being run on fast ground. Most of the field finished tired and insofar as future races are concerned, the caveat of how much this race will have taken out of them will applies across the board. Furthermore, given the anomalous circumstances, the reliability of the form cannot be readily accepted which makes for an entirely unsatisfactory and unnecessary contest. If there is never another jumps race held at Southwell, it will not be soon enough. There was money for Thunder King while Ranco drifted in the market but there were valid reasons for both of these movements on paper. There were no hard luck stories during the race.

    Bannister's sole effort on the flat last season along with his finishing second at Stratford were marked by greenness but they were not without promise. He did disappoint last time at Market Rasen but was able to settle much better when allowed to lead here. Apart from being slightly untidy at the fifth, he jumped well from the front and though Billy The Squid went odds-on in-running, Bannister never really looked in any serious danger. He almost certainly had the measure of Billy The Squid and while he was ridden out to the line, he showed no reluctance to do so. Strictly on form, he did not achieve much more than he did on his Stratford run but it does represent some fulfilment of his promise and if the race leaves no ill effects, he can progress further from here. 106

    Thunder King represented an Amy Murphy yard which has already tasted success in juvenile hurdles this season through Soldier On Parade and Topkapi Star. A fast finishing winner of a Windsor handicap on his penultimate start off a mark of 60, Thunder King's form entitled him to be competitive at this level. There were reservations to be had about his resolve when tired as he has a tendency to drift in the closing stages and while his stallion has some solid qualities, he is predominantly from a family of sprinters. In yesterday's conditions, the stamina of most juveniles would have been given a searching test and while Thunder King finished very tired, he was still able to beat a few home. His jumping was not assured in the early stages, he was being ridden before halfway and he was tired and awkward over the last few flights. He also reportedly lost a near hind shoe. This was not an outing without promise as there is scope for him to improve but it was a long way from a kind introduction and though he is capable of being competitive, his willingness would first need to be demonstrated. 86

    Fraterculus has the strongest flat form from the UK or Ireland in the field though he has yet to match that level over hurdles. He has the size to jump and there was encouragement to be drawn from his second run at Uttoxeter but this effort represented a backwards step. His jumping was as good as it has been thus far but it did fall apart as he tired quite badly which was also the case at Cartmel. There is still a chance for him to mature into the hurdler his flat form suggests he can be, but he would prefer more forgiving conditions. 77

    Jean Mary had shown nothing in either three starts on the flat or two starts over hurdles, and the 999/1 starting price on the exchanges was a fair reflection of her chances. Her jumping was a little more fluent than what she had previously shown, and it would be fair to describe this as a career best, but it was still poor from a form perspective. That she was only six lengths, or a mistake from those ahead, from running into a place reflects badly on the reliability of the form. 64

    I'm Easy had shown next to nothing in three starts on the flat although he is related to several winning hurdlers. Nevertheless, he lacked fluency first time out and was beaten by nearly fifty lengths. He needs to improve considerably before he is competitive in any company. 60

    Ranco is a dual winner on the flat in France and was claimed out of the Jérôme Reynier yard after winning last time out at Vichy. The second and the fifth from that race have subsequently won three claimers between them and while claiming form is still claiming form, it was still the strongest in the field. Apart from getting close to the third, he jumped fine over the first few flights but he was another whose jumping fell apart as he got tired and after initially racing close to the lead, he would finish a tailed-off last. Much has already been written about David Pipe's French imports so without belabouring the point, it suffices to say that he will probably leave this form a long way behind. 57

    Billy The Squid has improved with every race over hurdles and while his going odds-on in-running did not appear to be justified, he was probably going to finish runner-up and match his latest Uttoxeter effort in the process. He is not a characteristically good traveller and was already getting reminders at the halfway stage. However, he was also getting tired and got in very close to the sixth and seventh flights. He was barely able to lift his feet over the last and while the jockey was catapulted from the saddle, Billy The Squid was very lucky to find a hoof otherwise he would have taken a very nasty head-first fall. He can continue to be competitive at this level if showing no ill effects from the race. 99

    Global Agreement made a promising start to his hurdles career when finishing second at Cartmel and recorded the highest performance rating over hurdles in this field. However, at Uttoxeter he seemed to lose interest after a bit of a barging match over an early flight. This lack of interest was carried over to this race where he was being given reminders immediately after flag-fall. He never travelled, made a mistake at the third and was steady at the fourth before pulling up with three left to jump. It might make sense to reevaluate his Cartmel performance, as while he did not travel well there either, he still plugged on for second. Nevertheless, there is also the chance that he has simply gone sour on the sport.

    The Trendy Man managed to win one of his twelve races on the flat although that was off a mark of just 46 in a race where the only subsequent winner did so in a poor Ripon seller. His granddam is a half-sister to Stayers Hurdle winner Karshi but sire Dandy Man has a poor record in this sphere. In any case, The Trendy Man screwed over the third and lost his jockey in the process. 0

  9. #107
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    To wash out that sour taste, Fontwell hosts an interesting juvenile hurdle tomorrow which sees the participation of a previous winner along with imports from France and Ireland representing strong stables. Fontwell is one of the more challenging racecourses in the UK as the average winning DIs for juveniles are 1.32 mean and 1.00 median and those figures are approximately 0.2 points lower than the standard course participant. The average seasonal RPR of 116 is just below middling but this is not to say that top class juveniles are averse to visiting Fontwell as the Sussex venue has attracted the likes of Goshen, Christopher Wood and Sussex Ranger over recent years. The early September juvenile hurdle is a regular feature on the card and while this year's renewal looks no better than standard, it would still be one of this season's stronger contests thus far.

    Incidentally, those with sharp eyes and little else to do will notice that Nyah and Topkapi Star are from the same thoroughbred family. They each share a tenth dam in the 1930 Phalaris mare Carpet Slipper. Carpet Slipper’s filly Godiva completed the Oaks/1000gns double in 1940, and her son Windsor Slipper completed the Irish triple crown in 1942. Punjabi, Agrapart and Valiramix are just a few of the top hurdlers to have descended from this influential classic broodmare…

    Big Jimbo chg G Moore f4-0-1 (49) 46 j1-0-1 (-) 80 83
    Helmet (Pastoral Pursuits){9-c}(0.45) 3/1 Tiger Trek 1st Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2014
    Gary Moore has a healthy overall strike rate of 18% at his local track and with sixteen winners from forty-four outings since 2009/10, his record with juvenile hurdlers is even stronger. Tomorrow he will be represented by Big Jimbo who finished third on his hurdling debut at Bangor. He was beaten nearly thirty lengths that day but that was still better than anything he had achieved on his three flat outings as a two-year-old. He since returned to the flat to finish runner-up in a 0-50 Classified Stakes over ten furlongs at Bath. He was beaten six lengths off level weights there and the winner was well beaten five days later over the same course and distance off just 53. On bare form, Big Jumbo looks completely out of his element in this company and if he came from any other yard then it would be easy to dismiss his prospects. However, Gary Moore won the 2017 and 2018 renewals of this race with horses sent off at 14/1 and 16/1. While those horses had marginally better form and pedigrees, and the yard has sent out short priced horses that were beaten in this race, such a record means that Big Jimbo cannot be wholly discounted.

    Highlander Madrik chg David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 69
    Masterstroke (Redback){1-b}(0.33) 2/1 You're The Top 1st Novices' Chase, Kempton 2009
    Horses claimed out of French flat races do not have a strong record but the exception to that rule is David Pipe who prior to this year, had won with two of three such purchases over the past decade. However, records have shown that they usually take a few races in the UK before hitting their stride and the yard's Sans Logique and Ranco both disappointed on their first starts on these shores. Highlander Madrik was claimed after finishing second over fifteen furlongs at Dieppe and while a couple of subsequent winners were in behind, the form of the race is fairly standard. The equivalent flat rating of 72.6 is the strongest official mark in the field by some margin although it is still lower than those carried by the aforementioned pair as too was the price tag of €12,333. Masterstroke, who this year joined Yorton Farm Stud after standing in France, is a Monsun stallion out of a half-sister to Galileo. He has yet to have a UK/IRE jumps winner from his first three crops but does have a 33% winners to runners rate with his French jumpers including the useful three-year-old of 2018, Floridee, recent three-year-old chase winner Hades and Nicky Henderson’s new inmate Paros. Redback mares have produced three winning juveniles from five and Highlander Madrik's dam, who is from the family of You're The Top and Old March, won four times over jumps including a chase at three years old. Furthermore, David Pipe is two from eight with juveniles at Fontwell since 2009/10 and won this race with Talimos in 2009. Highlander Madrik is unlikely to be hitting the ground running on his first start in the UK and he was taken out of his intended first run early last month at Newton Abbot due to a reported temperature. Nevertheless, he otherwise has the profile to be very competitive in this field and is another who cannot be wholly discounted.

    Nyah bf Emma Lavelle Unraced
    Assertive (Singspiel){5-h}(1.18) 2/1 Rosecliff 1st Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2006
    Emma Lavelle sent out Talent To Amuse to win a pair of hurdles during the 2016/17 season but has otherwise failed to strike with her other six juveniles since 2009/10. Heez A Cracker is the only other racecourse debutant from the yard to start in such a contest and he did not begin to show form until tackling longer distances. Stallion Assertive has been standing since 2009 yet only five of his offspring have raced over jumps and none of them have collected prizemoney. Nyah is out of a half-sister to a winning hurdler but that is the extent of jumping on the immediate damline and while Singspiel has a fair record as a damsire, it is not outstanding among these runners. Unraced horses have a low strike rate in juvenile hurdles and there is not nearly enough within Nyah's profile to make her sufficiently compelling at this stage.

    Orchestral Rain bg Dr Richard Newland f1-0-0 (-) 69 j1-0-1 (-) 116 111
    Born To Sea (Val Royal){23}(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
    Orchestral Rain made a promising debut on the flat and his finishing third on his hurdles bow at Roscommon was similarly encouraging. As with his flat debut, he was rather green and somewhat lacking pace at stages but other than being slightly wary approaching the third, he put in a decent round of jumping with scope for further improvement. That Roscommon race has since worked out well as from those who finished in the first seven with subsequent runs, the winner followed up at Down Royal, the runner-up won a flat handicap, the sixth won at Ballinrobe and the fourth and seventh were each second on their next hurdles outings. In Dr Richard Newland, he has joined a trainer whose winner to runner and upper quartile RPR ratios are the best in this field. His juvenile form figures at Fontwell read 3132 and he sent Vosne Romanee to win this race in 2014. Born To Sea counts the classy A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower along with triple winner Malangan among his early crops of juveniles, and Orchestral Rain's dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Crafty Codger from the family of Alflora, Ardross and Scorpion. Any stamina concerns from the Born To Sea x Val Royal cross appear to be mitigated by the damline and Orchestral Rain's racecourse performances. Even if one looks at the fact that none of the ten ex-Willie McCreery juveniles over the past decade have won in the UK, Orchestral Rain's run at Roscommon already exceeds anything produced by that group. The only blemish on this profile is that Orchestral Rain has yet to actually win a race but if he is happy with being in front then he will be a most interesting contender.

    Poker Master bg Philip McBride f2-0-0 (-) 56
    Sepoy (Mastercraftsman){4-i}(3.00) 3/3 Hipsters 1st Prix Go Ahead (L), Auteuil 2019
    Poker Master was beaten by nearly thirty-five combined lengths in a couple of midsummer flat runs at Newmarket and Wolverhampton, and was 150/1 when refusing to enter the stalls prior to a Yarmouth maiden in July. Poker Master has some handy French stayers (2/1 Bathyrhon, 3/2 Brigatin) and jumpers (Besakih 3/2, Please God 3/3) on his damline and damsire Mastercraftsman is one of the best sires in the division. However, the yard's sole hurdles runner was tailed off in a 2016 Warwick juvenile and Sepoy's progeny are winless from thirty-seven hurdles runs.

    Topkapi Star bf Amy Murphy f9-0-2 (60) 74 j1-1-0 (-) 90 93
    Golden Horn (Thousand Words){5-h}(1.00) 3/2 Daybreak Boy 1st Conditions Hurdle, Clonmel 2019
    Topkapi Star ran some fair races for Roger Varian on the flat last year but shown poor form in a variety of headgear in three flat races this summer. She would enjoy a resurgence of sorts at Uttoxeter when she made a winning hurdles debut in a first time hood. Backed before the off, she was the only horse in the race to jump and travel comfortably and showed a professional attitude in the finish. The runner-up that day looked set to fill the same position at Southwell before unseating although the third and fourth were both well beaten in that same race. The most generous evaluation of that form will leave her with something to find here and she will have been done no favours by her penalty. Notwithstanding, if she does not revert to her inconsistent ways then her ability to jump and run to the line affords her ample credibility.

    Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j2-0-2 (101) 89 99
    Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
    Prior to making her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot, Talking About You looked likely to be withdrawn due to her recalcitrance. She did consent to race but while her keenness and poor jumping seemed likely to see her finish tailed off, she was able to plug on for third place. Mounted at the last possible moment prior to her latest start at Sedgefield, she still sweated and pulled hard but there was a discernible improvement in her attitude and jumping. Nevertheless, she did drift on the run-in and was unable to take advantage of the winner taking the third on a very scenic route to the line. Talking About You has the ability to be competitive at this level and has improved with every run during the summer. She also has solid sirelines for the division and curiously, juveniles by Sixties Icon have two wins, a second and four thirds from twelve runs at Fontwell since 2013. There are concerns over her overall form, and her attitude, while improving, still leaves plenty to be desired. Nevertheless, there are still enough positives in her profile to grant her some respect.

    Strong prospects
    1. Orchestral Rain
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Topkapi Star
    Feasible prospects
    3. Talking About You
    4. Highlander Madrik
    Moderate prospects
    5. Big Jimbo
    Negligible prospects
    6. Nyah
    7. Poker Master

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    BH, as well as biting your tongue it must have been difficult to have reviewed the race at Southwell when you feel so strongly. I must say that I find it strange that trainers continue to enter their horses, it’s not as if massive prize money is on the table. I suppose that one can only conclude that they either don’t care much about the well-being of their horses or that they think the dangers are overblown. I hope the investigations are thorough.
    Last edited by barjon; 5th September 2020 at 3:34 PM.

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    It wasn't the best race to watch but I was going to review it in any case rather than leave an information gap in the project. Mercifully it did not cause any immediate injuries so the spectacle was merely pointless without being gory.

    I would be more inclined to reserve judgement when it comes to specific connections as I can not speculate on the degree of awareness, the manner of personal perspectives or the motivations behind decisions. I do not doubt that there were probably incidents of indifference to the wellbeing of the racehorses and if human beings were all unequivocally guided by their own free will then everybody involved would share responsibility.

    Nevertheless, there is already a regulatory body whose very purpose is to ensure the safety of its human and equine participants. This body is trusted by the entire sport to perform this function and those employed to serve the industry are paid very well to do so. While there are drawbacks to the age of litigation, there are very legitimate reasons for groups and individuals being held to account whenever there is a dereliction of duty.

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    There has been a huge move for Big Jimbo who is currently a best priced 9/2 after being available at 14/1 yesterday. While this was alluded to in the preview, Big Jimbo needs to find at least thirty pounds worth of improvement out of thin air in order to win this race. For the sake of integrity, I am hoping this is a wild over-adjustment based on the trainer's record than it being a full blown plot.

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    Mark Howard's forthcoming One Jump Ahead, due out in a couple of week's time, is to feature various French horses purchased by some of the bigger stables amongst others. He is quoted as saying there could be tremendous strength in depth in this season's juvenile hurdles, if the new recruits are anything to go by.

    We shall see.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Duffel coat good at punchestown.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Mark Howard's forthcoming One Jump Ahead, due out in a couple of week's time, is to feature various French horses purchased by some of the bigger stables amongst others. He is quoted as saying there could be tremendous strength in depth in this season's juvenile hurdles, if the new recruits are anything to go by.

    We shall see.
    Ordered it yesterday. There have been a fair few mentioned in this thread already so am excited to see what I've missed. If nothing else then I think we might finally find out who will be training Prunay!

    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Duffel coat good at punchestown.
    Certainly looked good and it will be interesting to see what he does tomorrow.

    There has been a break in juvenile hurdling during which time I have extended the big spreadsheet to include every juvenile hurdler since 2008/09. Apologies for missing the preview for the Punchestown race and there are a couple of reviews due which will be posted now.

    FONTWELL

    The field assembled for Fontwell's first juvenile of the season was no better than average but there were winners from the flat and jumps along with a promising import from Ireland. It was taken by an improving maiden who set a searching gallop which secured her the race before the turn for home. The winning time was nearly six seconds slower than the opening novice hurdle taken by penalised 128 rated front-runner. This puts the quality of the form in perspective and it is fair to assume that a couple of these ran below par for whatever reason. Nevertheless, the first four places were filled by horses with hurdling experience and the winner was the best on the day.

    Talking About You's disposition had looked suspect on her previous two starts over hurdles but a pre-race routine of being kept from her rivals saw improvement on her debut effort and the same precautions were employed here. She was keen in the early stages but once she was allowed her head, she settled into a comfortable rhythm. She wandered into the fourth flight before walking through it but otherwise she put in a polished and effcient round of jumping which clearly helped her cause. There was already a gap between herself and the field after the third flight and that gap never looked like being closed. She could be called the winner some way from home but it would be unfair to suggest that James Davies somehow stole the race as her rivals has ample opportunity to make inroads and most were tired before the home straight. She was ultimately a decisive winner and was eased to a walk at the line. However, her superiority ought not be overestimated as she hung quite badly after the last and stopped very quickly when eased which would suggest that she did not have a great deal left in reserve. Nevertheless, this marked another step forward and as connections learn more about her, she is capable of further improvement. 105

    Big Jimbo had little right to be involved here on the basis of his debut run at Bangor and a more recent spin on the flat still left him with plenty to find. Representing a yard that does well with juveniles at the track, he was the subject of a market move throughout the day although this was not sustained in the ring. Kept towards the rear for much of the race, he stayed on past beaten horses and while he never threatened the winner, he finished clear of the remainder. He was slightly big at the first and late going into the sixth but his jumping was otherwise fine and this represents a career best. The improvement can be put down to an appreciation of a trip which rather belies his pedigree but it must also be noted that he was gelded since his debut effort. There is scope for further improvement although he is probably not a great deal better than this level. 102

    Orchestral Rain's UK bow can only be regarded as a disappointment since a mere reproduction of his promising Roscommon run would most likely have been enough to win this race. While he was big at the first, his jumping was fine although he was late at consecutive flights in the back straight. He was the last of those tracking the winner to be beaten but was a spent force in the straight and barely clambered over the final two flights. He shaped like a the trip would be fine in his two prior runs although there were some marginal doubts on his sirelines. It is possible that a lack of concentration caused a few of his errors and consumed more energy than was necessary so he could benefit from the application of headgear. This inexperienced horse has already shown himself to be better than this and can be forgiven this outing for the time being. 96

    Topkapi Star won at Uttoxeter but was another who failed to build on a promising debut. She was not as fancied in the market on this occasion and while she jumped and travelled well enough for a long way, she weakened tamely when turning for home. She was not the most consistent type on the flat and this was not a going day for her. Furthermore, the race she won at Uttoxeter looked poor at the time and has not worked out brilliantly either. Topkapi Star is better than this but a reproduction of her best form is not assured and would still leave her vulnerable under a penalty in any case. 81

    Poker Master had only two of his fifteen rivals behind him in a couple of flat races during the summer so there was not a great deal expected of him here. His jumping was perfectly acceptable here and he could be competitive in a weak enough contest in the future but there was little else immediately encouraging about this effort. 77

    Highlander Madrik won on the flat in France and was sent off second favourite here but finished a tailed off last. He was not fluent at the first and found himself rather squeezed out early on but was already tired by the back straight. He was beaten a long way from home but like others from his yard with his background, it is not unfair to assume that he can eventually build considerably on this effort. 49

    Nyah was making her racecourse debut for a yard not renowned for its juvenile hurdlers. Setting off in the rear, she skewed badly over the first and while he was fine over the second, he effectively refused at the third and got rid of her jockey in the process. 0

    PUNCHESTOWN

    Punchestown is one of the elite jumps tracks in Ireland and its autumnal juvenile hurdles have a fine roll call over the years including the likes of Espoir d'Allen, Aspire Tower and Mitchouka. The race back on the eighth was something of an anomaly for the venue as while the course stages maiden hurdles fairly regularly, it has been almost sixteen years since it hosted any juvenile in the month of September. It was a well contested affair for the time of year as the line-up contained the highest rated flat horse seen thus far this season along with three other winners from that sphere. There was also placed hurdling form, representatives from three top yards, and a pair of well related newcomers. The race was ran at a solid tempo and the winning time was quicker than both maiden hurdles and one of the bumpers on the card.

    Duffle Coat was making his racecourse debut and while he was naturally green, he still travelled and jumped like a seasoned professional. After settling in the rear for much of the race, he effortlessly progressed to the front rank on the approach to the straight. Taking the widest route on the final turn, he needed only hands and heels encouragement to lead before the last and he won going away from the field. He provided his sire with his first winning juvenile although his dosage index is considerably lower than those of his paternal siblings. There were stronger clues on the damline as Duffle Coat is a half-brother to the highly talented but ill-fated Starchitect along with winning hurdler Redemption Song. His granddam was a half-sister to the useful Rio De Janeiro as well as the dam of Royal Bond runner up triplicate. Duffle Coat was a big drifter in the market beforehand but he could hardly have made a more favourable impression first time out. The bare form is some way off pattern class but it would still be as good as anything seen so far this year and with improvement for the experience almost guaranteed, it would be no surprise to see him compete with merit in good races. 127

    Crassus represented a Noel Meade yard with typically does very well in this sphere. While he has yet to send out a winning juvenile this season, three of his four runners have ran with credit and Crassus did the same here. His recent flat form has not matched the best of his two-year-old efforts but this outing would mark a new career high. Finishing best of those who raced prominently, Crassus jumped and travelled well for the most part and was comfortably on top of all bar one of his rivals. He is not especially bred for a jumps career, nor is he an obvious type for the better races but he ran to a fair standard first time and should be very competitive at this kind of level. 117

    Scholastic has won three races on the flat at distances up to twelve furlongs but she made an alarming spectacle of herself as a loose horse on her jumps debut at Down Royal. She made an almighty blunder at the first flight here but while she lacked fluency at a few of her other jumps, she put in a more respectable round overall. Her official flat figure of 70 probably represents the ceiling of her ability but she has enough scope to reach a similar level over hurdles. 103

    Sweet Sixteen outran her 66/1 odds when third in an attritional contest on her hurdles debut at Tipperary and put up another creditable performance here. Her jumping was sound and after being hampered half way, she stayed on well without threatening the leaders. Her form is no better than average at this juncture but she has shown promise and when she encounters softer ground as she matures then she can improve further on these efforts. 102

    Yulong Voice was last of three finishers in an eventful Down Royal contest on his hurdles debut but that was not a run without promise and he at least maintained that level here. Apart from getting close to the last, his jumping was fine and while he may struggle to be competitive in open company, he should have a future in handicaps. 106

    Poets Touch was rather unfairly maligned as a dodgy character when his being carried out on his second outing was erroneously recorded as a refusal. There appeared to be nothing wrong with his attitude on this occasion and apart from steadying into the fifth, put in a perfectly respectable round of jumping here. He had yet to be asked any serious questions when still in contention at Down Royal but was beaten on merit on this occasion and is probably quite limited. There are races where he can be competitive but perhaps not at this level. 97

    Bigz Belief has shown nothing better than modest form in nine runs on the flat and his jumping was not the most fluent on his hurdles debut. He raced prominently however and was not headed until just before the home turn so there were hints of promise. This matches the best of his flat form and there is potential for improvement although he would still be some way off threatening the judge in this class of race. 96

    At War is a half-brother to the good handicapper Baltimore Rock and his best flat form entitles him to be competitive at this level. However, he has been out of sorts recently and similar comments apply to the form of his yard. Nevertheless, while he was comprehensively beaten in the end, he did jump well here and if his yard can regain the winning thread then he is capable of leaving this form behind. 81

    Estepona Sun is the highest rated flat horse to have ran in juvenile hurdles this season and was being prepared by Ger Lyons for a jumps career before he was bought out of a Leopardstown claimer for €25,000. However, he completely lacked fluency on his hurdles debut and almost fell after getting in way too close to the fourth. He is obviously capable of better but there was little encouragement to be drawn from his first outing over hurdles. 65

    Sister Eliza had run creditably on her first two starts over hurdles but while she jumped well enough in the front ranks, she dropped away very quickly with plenty of the race still to be run. She was was below her best here and she may benefit from freshening up. Particularly as all of her seven career starts have occurred since the end of June and she was on the ground for a while after being brought down on her previous outing. 49

    A Mere Bagatelle showed very little on the flat in three starts on the flat as a two-year-old and while there was a modicum of promise on his hurdles debut at Roscommon, he has regressed on his two subsequent starts. There was initially an attempt to race prominently but a blunder at the second along with his slow jumping dragged him to the rear of the field. 48

    Cardinal Rule was winless in eight starts on the flat but he came into this race on the back of a career best fourth in a fourteen furlong Killarney handicap on heavy ground. Although his stable is not renowned for its juvenile hurdlers, Cardinal Rule was the subject of significant market support which saw him backed from 16/1 to 9/2. However, his chances were effectively ended by a pair of decidedly reluctant jumps at the first two flights and while his jumping did improve from thereon, he never regained his position and ultimately finished tailed off. Better was clearly expected and his stamina for the game is no concern but there have to be doubts regarding his aptitude. 53

    Dawn Over Owning started the race as favourite and his win over a mile and six in a Killarney handicap accounted for any stamina concerns brought by his precocious sire. However, while his jumping was largely fine, he never looked like landing a blow and was eased after dropping away three flights from home. A gelding operation might help him move on from this effort but he has plenty to prove on this evidence. 52

    FONTWELL

    And so that every juvenile hurdler gets a review, even in handicaps, here is one for Historic Heart's run at Fontwell.

    Historic Heart came into the race on the back of a maiden victory in a Sedgefield juvenile sixteen days earlier. The form of that race was subsequently boosted when runner up Talking About You ran out an emphatic winner at Fontwell. What was noticeable here was the size difference between himself and his older rivals which suggested that every one of his eighteen pounds WFA allowance was justified. Historic Heart was bumped after the first but he subsequently enjoyed a trouble free passage and while his jumping did not feature the efficiency of a champion hurdler, it was perfectly acceptable for the level at which he is competing. Just as he had done at Sedgefield, he wandered around in the home straight and got in close to the last two as a result. Nevertheless, he plugged on well enough to finish seven and a half lengths fourth and was eleven lengths clear of the remainder. He ran off a mark of 110 which is three pounds higher than what I gave him for his Sedgefield win. All things considered, he probably ran right up to that mark and though the allowances will become less generous as he matures physically, he has the potential to improve further if he matures mentally. 107

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    Juvenile hurdling returns to the UK at Plumpton and while the field is not of an obvioulsly high standard, it does feature a couple interesting recruits. Since the 2009/10 season, there have been 54 winning juveniles at the East Sussex venue and this particular contest has been held every year. The average winning DI is 1.19 median, 1.47 mean which increases to 1.45 and 1.69 when this race is taken in isolation. The latter figures are actually higher than that of the average runner whose figures are 1.40 and 1.57. However, all of these races were ran over a distance two furlongs shorter than Sunday's scheduled contest which may significantly alter the complexion and stamina demands. A more tangible statistic is that the average seasonal best RPR for this race's winners is 110 median and 108.18 mean which indicates that this contest does not typically take a great deal of winning. Indeed, City Dreamer and Alfraamsey are the only winners since 2009 whose seasonal RPRs would exceed 120. Sunday's contest features no previous hurdles winners but there is some placed form available and there are also two winners from the flat. The most interesting runner however is one making his racecourse debut.

    Bourbali bg Colin Tizzard Unraced
    Sinndar (Saint Des Saints){1-b}(1.18) 2/1 Tamarinbleu 1st Clarence House Chase (G1), Ascot 2008
    Between the start of the 2011/12 season and Merry Poppin's win at Tipperary, 8 of 429 juvenile hurdlers won on their racecourse debuts. Since then Duffle Coat added to that tally at Punchestown and when figures going back to the 2008/09 season are included, the strike rate becomes 13 winners from 629 debutants. The stability of these figures emphasise the challenges faced by hurdling newcomers who lack racing experience. Nevertheless, Bourbali's profile is about as strong as it gets for juvenile hurdling. He reprepresents the penultimate crop of his stallion Sinndar whose record as a sire of juveniles is exceptional. As well as producing top class types such as Hargam, Mourad and Diakali over the years, his record across the ranks is of the highest standard. Of the sixty-nine stallions with at least twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09, Sinndar leads the way with his winners to runners ratio of 43.75% and his overall strike rate of 21.19%. Only Authorized heads him for improvement rates and his sole superior in terms of RPRs exceeding 107 is Saint Des Saints. Bourbali is out of a Saint Des Saints mare who has produced a winning hurdler and whose own dam won a handicap at Auteil. She is also a half sister to Tamarindor who won his first two outings in juvenile hurdles at Pau along with Tamarinbleu who make a winning racecourse debut in an Ascot juvenile hurdle ahead of a top class career. Trainer Colin Tizzard is more famous for his staying chasers than his juvenile hurdlers and has only sent out ten of the latter since 2008/09. Nevertheless, half of them, including the useful Third Intention and Padleyourowncanoe, have been winners and he also picked up a handicap hurdle at this venue with one of the two he has sent to Plumpton. It should be reiterated that newcomers do not have a strong record in juvenile hurdles but the strength of Bourbali's profile warrants him considerable respect in this type of company.

    Brown Eyed Girl bf Sheena West f3-0-0 (51) 46
    Sixties Icon (Fraam){4-k}(0.67) .5 Brilliant Barca 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2011
    Brown Eyed Girl ran three times on the all-weather for Mick Channon between November and March over distances of seven furlongs and a mile. In these contests, she beat just three of her thirty-six rivals home and was beaten a combined forty-six lengths. Her attitide left much to be desired as she was given to running freely and hanging to her right. Racecourse evidence gives her profile an unfavourable appearance but her breeding and connections offer encouragement. Sixties Icon came into this season with a respectable record of six winners from thirty-one runners and his stock has since increased with both Hiconic and Talking About You winning in this sphere. He also won this particular contest two years ago with another Sheena West trained horse. Sheena West has had five juvenile winners at Plumpton since 2009 and her record in this particular contest is three winners, including the last two renewals, a second, a third and a faller. Incidentally, her winner in 2011 was by Brown Eyed Girl's damsire Fraam. Brown Eyed Girl is a full-sister to multiple winner Sixtie's Idol and a half-sister to another stablemate Brilliant Barca who won as a three-year-old. Her flat form leaves her with plenty to find and even if she improves significantly, she is unlikely to be an above average sort. Nevertheless, she was the chosen one of two entries for a stable who like to target this race, the yard has an impressive improvement rate of 73.33% between codes and there is plenty in her pedigree to suggest that she has a more promising future over hurdles.

    Calidus Mirabilis bg Amy Murphy f12-2-1 (68) 75 j3-0-1 (109) 108 109
    Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko HcH, Auteuil 2018
    Amy Murphy began this season without a winning juvenile hurdler from eight runners but a rich vein of form post-lockdown saw her win with two of her three representatives. She bought a couple of new recruits from the Joseph O'Brien yard at Tattersalls' August sale, one of them being Calidus Mirabilis who changed hands for 17,000 guineas. Twice a winner on the flat, his official rating has dropped to 68 but it is still the highest in this field. With three starts over jumps, he is also the most experienced hurdler and his first two starts at Roscommon and Ballinrobe provide the strongest hurdling form on offer. He was a beaten odds-on favourite on his most recent start at Tipperary but that was an attritional affair which would have been unsuitable regardless of the minor injury he collected along the way. His jumping is fine when he is not tired and the application of a tongue tie may help negate the stamina concerns that his efforts have provoked. If Sunday's race was to be contested at the minumum trip then the case for Calidus Mirabilis would have been a very strong one as an easy trip on good ground would be ideal. However, although Amy Murphy is still sending out winners, the additional two furlongs does temper confidence.

    Full Secret bf Neil King f6-0-0 (51) 56
    Footstepsinthesand (Green Desert){3-g}(1.60) 3/1 Davoski 2nd Castleford Chase (G2, 144), Wetherby 2000
    Full Secret ran five times on the all-weather for Richard Fahey at trips up to a mile and was initially given a rating of 58. However, after joining Neil King for 6,300 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale, that mark dropped to 51 when she was well beaten in a ten furlong Bath handicap on her turf debut. Her new trainer does have a strong record with juvenile hurdlers however with a 43.33% winners to runners rate and a 64% improvement rate. He also enjoys success with his value purchases as of the seven horses who cost less than Full Secret at public auction, four would win during their juvenile campaigns. It is worth noting however that the same can not be said of those sold out of the Fahey yard at similar prices as none of the four qualifiers collected a race between them. Nevertheless, Neil King has also sent out two runners up and a fourth in this particular contest including Witch From Rome who was a 50/1 second in 2014. Footstepsinthesand has above average figures in the sphere and while there are no jumpers in the immediate pedigree, Full Secret's granddam was a half-sister to decent chaser Davoski. It is reasonable to imagine Full Secret at least matching the best of her flat form over hurdles and while she still has plenty to find, she could be the type to outrun large odds.

    Lightning Bug bf Suzy Smith f6-0-0 (37) 45
    Starspangledbanner (Dansili){2-e}(0.71) 3/1 Satchmo 3rd Bader Preis Hurdle (Listed), Baden-Baden
    Not seen on a racecourse since last October, Lightning Bug had six races as a two-year-old from six furlongs to an extended mile. During these starts, she neither finished better than seventh nor closer than ten lengths to the winner. Her flat rating of 37 is warranted and there is little on paper to suggest that she can find the dramatic and neccesary improvement required to figure here. Her sire is without any jumps winners and there is little of note on the damline in the sphere. Trainer Suzy Smith has had the one juvenile winner from six horses and everything else in the field has a stronger profile.

    Peat Moss bg N Hawke f5-0-1 (47) 50 j2-0-1 (-) 91 84
    Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c}(0.71) 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
    Rated 50 on the flat after three fruitless runs, Peat Moss made a somewhat promising debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot in the season's curtain raiser back in June, jumping well enough and shaping as though a sterner test would suit. He regressed on his second jumps outing at Cartmel however where he paid the price for trying to keep up with a fast and fluent front-runner. Since then, he was beaten twenty-four lengths in a lowly Southwell handicap on the flat over two miles where he was finished a long way from home. He may still have a future in a low enough grade but this contest looks beyond him.

    Prince Percy bg G Moore f7-0-1 (57) 65 j1-0-1 (-) 96 101
    Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 - NH Sire
    Prince Percy made a hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July and though he could not match subsequent winner Soldier On Parade, he did finish eleven lengths clear of the remainder. His yard has a fine record in juvenile hurdles as it does in this race with the 2010, 2013 and 2016 renewals going to Gary Moore. Prince Percy's flat form is just about good enough to be competitive in this field but there are a couple of notes of caution. He has been supported in the market on numerous occasions without winning and while he is generally a consistent sort, he was well below form on his latest outing in a Lingfield handicap. There are encouraging elements to his profile including his successful sirelines and the yard recently sent out Big Jimbo to post a career best at Fontwell. However, that encouragement is mitigated by questions pertaining to his current form and attitude.

    Treaty Of Dingle bf Sean Curran f14-2-5 (67) 70
    Roderic O'Connor (Sakhee's Secret){6-b}(0.60) 4/1 Surrey Dancer 138 2nd Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G2), Newcastle 1994
    Behind Calidus Mirabilis, Treaty Of Dingle is the most experienced horse in the field, has the most wins and boasts the highest flat rating. He is also another having his first run for a new yard after a public sale although his transfer came after winning a Lingfield claimer just over three weeks ago where he left the Hughie Morrison yard for Ł12,000. It is not unheard of for horses bought out of UK races to go on to better things. Maoi Chinn Tire won the Wensleydale Hurdle after being claimed for Ł7,000 and Orsippus won the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after being claimed out of a seller for just Ł4,500. Nevertheless, the general record of those who emerge from claimers and sellers is below average and less than a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Expats of Hughie Morrison's yard do win their fair share in juvenile hurdles although neither of those who left through sellers won races nor did Sean Curran's sole purchase by that method. Sean Curran has not enjoyed the best of success in the division over the years but he did saddle Talking About You to win at Fontwell recently which incidentally, was his first winner in the sphere since Prince Pippin won at Plumpton in November 2009. Treaty Of Dingle was as entitled to win his claimer as the odds of 4/9 suggested but he was keen during the race and made hard work of the task. He is a consistent type though as he was runner up on three consecutive outings beforehand. Roderic O'Connor has a fair record of two winners from nine but his overall strike rate of 10.34% is poor as is the 16.67% improvement rate. Though the likes of French Holly and Deano's Beeno do appear on Treaty Of Dingle's damline at 4/2. He is capable of performing at this level and his prospects can not be readily dismissed but his profile is still rather patchy in the context of this field.

    Strong prospects
    1. Bourbali
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Calidus Mirabilis
    3. Prince Percy
    Feasible prospects
    4. Treaty Of Dingle
    5. Brown Eyed Girl
    6. Full Secret
    Moderate prospects
    7. Peat Moss
    Negligible prospects
    8. Lightning Bug

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    Listowel hosts its annual juvenile hurdle on Sunday and although only one race of its type per year is staged at the Kerry venue, it is typically a decent affair. Previous winners include Guitar Pete, Chief Justice, Rashaan and Al Eile while the likes of A Wave Of The Sea and Gimli's Rock have met defeat in this contest. The average winner goes on to achieve a seasonal RPR of 123 and that standard has already been met by the two Gordon Elliott runners. While that pair look a class apart from their rivals, there is still a hurdles winner, a hurdles placed flat winner and a Jessica Harrington newcomer to keep them honest. Barring accidents or a muddling place, whoever wins this race will earn the right to compete in this season's better races. Listowel is a very sharp track and the average winning DIs of 1.67 median and 1.78 mean are all the more remarkable when compared to the DIs of the average participant which stand at 1.40 and 1.68. The expected good ground should place further emphasis on speed over endurance. Notwithstanding, while Listowel does not place a great demand on stamina, its completion rate of 82.5% is one of the lowest in both the UK and Ireland which makes assured jumping all the more essential.

    At War bg Thomas Cooper f12-0-3 (75) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 79 81
    War Command (Definite Article){15-a}(3.00) .5 Baltimore Rock 1st Imperial Cup (G3,125), Sandown 2014
    A half-brother to Baltimore Rock with a triple hurdle winning third dam, there is reason enough to imagine At War being a proficient hurdler. This was demonstrated when he put in a decent round on his jumps debut at Punchestown. However, while the best of his flat form entitled him to be more competitive in that race, he was well beaten in the end. He has not been at his best recently and it will be a huge ask for him to be competitive in this company. Nevertheless, he has shown himself a decent jumper and the course should suit him so it is not unreasonable to expect some improvement.

    Duffle Coat grg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 124 127
    Alhebayeb (Sadler's Wells){4-k}(1.40) .5 Starchitect 2nd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
    Duffle Coat was friendless in the market prior to his debut at Punchestown and his sire from the hitherto uninspiring Dark Angel line had yet to produce a jumps winner. However, this half-brother to Starchitect made a most pleasing start to his career as he belied his greenness to travel and jump with ease before running out an emphatic winner. That he will likely to improve for the experience makes him an exciting prospect and while stablemate Longclaw is the other leading Irish juvenile seen thus far, Duffle Coat receives four pounds and retains the services of Keith Donoghue. It is usually bad practice to take a solitary performance as a gospel indicator of a horse's ability or potential. However, unproven stallion aside it is difficult to find reasonable holes in his profile. Gordon Elliott has won this particular race only once from six runners but with three winners and two seconds yesterday alone, the yard is in flying form. Unless there is a dramatic and unexpected improvement from those not trained at Cullentra House, the Gordon Elliott pair appear to have the race between themselves and Duffle Coat would have the most scope of the two.

    Finsceal Blue bg W J Austin Unraced
    Finsceal Fior (Azamour){3-l}(1.09) 6/5 Sadler's Risk 1st Star Chase (G3), Punchestown 2016
    One of two racecourse debutants set to line up, Finsceal Blue represents a Willie Austin yard that has sent out just the one juvenile hurdler since 2008/09. His granddam is a half-sister to the top class American horse Lemon Drop Kid and while one must go a long way back to find any notable jumpers on the damline, his sire Finsceal Fior has a decent record with juvenile hurdles from limited opportunities. Three of his five offspring have won races in the sphere including the dual winner Sacchoandvanzetti. Azamour was a capable sire in the division although his strike rate of 3.85% as a damsire is less encouraging. There are hints of promise in Finsceal Blue's profile but he is being set a huge task on his debut.

    Little Brother bg J A Nash f10-1-2 (55) 57 j2-1-0 (-) 107 111
    Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle, Ascot 1998
    A winner of a Sligo handicap on the flat in early July, Little Brother doubled his career tally in a Ballinrobe maiden on his second outing over hurdles. He was well backed prior to his debut where he finished thirty-five lengths behind Longclaw but he redeemed himself at Ballinrobe and reversed Roscommon form with Calidus Mirabilis. That did not look like a strong contest beforehand however and apart from Sister Eliza running a good race prior to being brought down at Down Royal, the subsequent form has not held up. Furthermore, while that Ballinrobe win was a career best effort, he failed to capitalise on what was theoretically a lenient flat mark in a soft ground Down Royal handicap just over a fortnight ago. Notwithstanding, the quicker ground along with his prominent racing style will suit him much better on Sunday so a ressurgence is not out of the question. He does however still have plenty of ground to make up on the principles.

    Longclaw bg Gordon Elliott f6-0-2 (82) 83 j2-2-0 (-) 125 125
    Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) American family
    Longclaw has done little wrong in winning both of his races over hurdles and the form of his runs in conjunction with the manner of his victories make for a solid profile. Each of the first seven from his Roscommon win that have ran again have either won or been placed and while he was left with little to beat at Down Royal, two horses have since been placed and the well beaten third at least matched that effort last time at Punchestown. Prior to Duffle Coat's debut, Longclaw was unquestionably the best juvenile hurdler seen this season and with the benefit of experience along with potential improvement following a gelding operation, his claims here can not be readily crabbed. Nevertheless, he has shown vulnerabilities in his inconsistency on the flat and while it is only four pounds, he still has to concede weight to a completely unexposed rival who was even more striking in his jumping and performance. His prospects are clearly the best of the remainder and would take all the beating in the absence of Duffle Coat.

    Made In Pimlico chg Brendan W Duke f7-0-0 (42) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Dragon Pulse (Giant's Causeway){8-k}(1.25) no jumps relatives
    Made In Pimlico's official flat rating of 42 was earned in seven starts as a two year old and gave him little hope ahead of his hurdling debut at Tipperary last month. In the event, he was pulled up at half way. A case can not be made for him in this company.

    Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (70) 66 j2-0-1 (-) 101 103
    Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
    A triple winner on the flat, the loose Scholastic managed to take out three of her rivals in what looked like an act of vengeance for having her rider unshipped in the early stages of her hurdling debut at Down Royal. She began her next hurdles start with a huge error but while she was not entirely fluent at the other hurdles, her jumping did settle down and she was able to finish a thirteen length third to Duffle Coat. Joseph O'Brien won this race in 2017 with Grey Waters although his A Wave Of The Sea was beaten in last year's renewal. Scholastic is capable of winning over hurdles but she would need to surpass anything she achieved on the flat to win here and her lack of fluency will take a toll around Listowel.

    Social Distancing bf Neill McCluskey Unraced
    Leading Light (Alflora){13-c}(0.68) .5 Moores Road 1st Handicap Hurdle (111), Cork 2017
    The second of the racecourse debutants, the topically named Social Distancing is bred much more like a jumper than a flat horse. As well as being a half-sister to winning hurdler Moores Road, she is out of a half-sister to Persian Gates, her granddam is a full-sister to the dual Tommy Whittle winner Bobby Grant and her third dam is a sibling of Arkle chase runner up Boreen Daw. Leading Light failed to win with any of his first crop juveniles last term but the majority of his progeny are store horses and similar sentiments apply to those produced by Alflora's mares. There is some talent in the pedigree but it is generally late developing and it would be a big upset if Social Distancing was either sharp or forward enough to win on her debut.

    Waterville Lady bf Mrs John Harrington f12-0-2 (65) 67
    Starspangledbanner (Marju){1-k}(0.71) 2/1 Gladiator King 1st Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2015
    Since 2008/09, Jessica Harrington has sent ten runners to compete in this race with three winners, a second and two thirds. She is represented here by Waterville Lady who will be making her hurdling debut. A maiden after twelve starts, she has twice reached the frame, most recently when second off 65 in a nine furlong Tipperary handicap back in June. Since then however, she has finished nearer last than first in a pair of good ground handicaps while being beaten by a total of over forty lengths. Starspangledbanner has yet to produce a jumps winner and Marju's record as both a sire and damside is a below average one in the sphere. Nevertheless, there are some capable jumpers on the damline including Gladiator King (2/1), Rock Relief (2/1) and Cardinal Walter (3/2). Jessica Harrington has a good record in the sphere and her winners to runners percentage of 26.67% increases to 30.95% with those that she trained herself on the flat. Furthermore, two of her previous winners in this race had shown less on the flat than Waterville Lady although both of them had shaped with promise on previous hurdles outings. The case is predominantly supported by the trainer's record in this race but while it is interesting that Waterville Lady is the chosen representative, the remainder of her profile is a comparatively weak one.

    Strong prospects
    1. Duffle Coat
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Longclaw
    Feasible prospects
    3. Little Brother
    4. Scholastic
    Moderate prospects
    5. At War
    6. Waterville Lady
    Negligible prospects
    7. Finsceal Blue
    8. Social Distancing
    9. Made In Pimlico

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    Sorry if this is not wanted here but if anyone is thinking of backing Prince percy

    Strong prospects
    1. Bourbali
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Calidus Mirabilis
    3. Prince Percy
    Feasible prospects
    4. Treaty Of Dingle
    5. Brown Eyed Girl
    6. Full Secret
    Moderate prospects
    7. Peat Moss
    Negligible prospects
    8. Lightning Bug

    1.15 Plumpton: PRINCE PERCY - Gary Moore has won this race three times since 2010 and looks to have another decent chance here. This 3 year-old is fit from the flat and would have learned a lot from his second on hurdles debut at Market Rasen back in July. Looks to have the Amy Murphy runner to fear, but expected to go well.

    Prince Percy
    Sun 20th Sep 2020
    13:15, Plumpton
    Not an easy race to evaluate at all and a case can be made for half the field. I like to think that PRINCE PERCY has as good a chance as any of these with racecourse experience on his side after a number of flat runs finishing in the frame a couple of times as well as finishing second on his hurdling debut a couple of months ago. Certainly fit enough if good enough and it would be good if PRINCE PERCY could get his head in front today at the finish

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    Duffle Coat has been taken out of today's Listowel contest which certainly depletes the race of much of its interest. I did say beforehand that whoever wins the race would take a step up in class by default although given Longclaw's superiority, a victory on his part might not be especially revelatory. The following amendment to the prospects list might end up making me look very silly. Nevertheless, with at least ten pounds in hand over his rivals along with potentially further improvement for being gelded, Longclaw's superior jumping and proven ability in the conditions make his prospects outstanding.

    Outstanding prospects
    1. Longclaw
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Little Brother
    3. Scholastic
    Feasible/moderate prospects
    4. At War
    5. Waterville Lady
    Negligible prospects
    6. Finsceal Blue
    7. Social Distancing
    8. Made In Pimlico

    Quote Originally Posted by luckyme View Post
    Sorry if this is not wanted here but if anyone is thinking of backing Prince percy
    Hi luckyme. I can't speak for "the thread" or "the people" but as far as I am concerned, any input is absolutely wanted here.

    My thoughts on the race have already been recorded and although Bourbali has been rather weak in the market, I am still satisfied the preview is the best reflection of my opinion. I have noticed that Prince Percy has been the subject of support this morning but while this did precede an improved showing from Big Jimbo at Fontwell, Prince Percy has been backed in the past without winning. I will not be betting on this or any race in this thread as it is not a facet of the sport in which I indulge. As such, I will be quite pleased for my opinion to be erroneous if it means a fellow forumite is a beneficiary!

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    PLUMPTON
    Preview review
    Winner Peat Moss was underestimated on account of his poor recent run and a perceived need for a stiffer test. However, it has been noted that his potential over jumps is greater than that on the flat and with Calidus Mirabilis going off as quickly as he did, the consequent stiffer test in tandem with more suitable waiting tactics helped him realise the potential he had shown. His underestimation was still somewhat perturbing but had the pace not been so exaggerated then he probably would not have had the gears to win this contest. Apart from Peat Moss, the preview was otherwise satisfactory. Bourbali ran well despite some inexperienced jumping early on and emerges as very much the best in the field. Calidus Mirabilis's chances were indeed compromised by the extended distance. Prince Percy once again disappointed following market support and his uncharacteristically below-par effort last time was replicated as he failed to build on his hurdling debut.

    Race review
    While not an atrocious looking event, those with experience either had questions to answer or looked fair at best. The pace was a solid one which had the field strung out with over a mile still to be ran. Although the winning time was almost four seconds slower than the maiden hurdle later on the card, a hypothetical weight-for-age allowance roughly aligns the two races. The first two in the betting ran below their best but those runs can be accounted for by a dip in form and incorrect tactics. Otherwise, the first three had every right to fill their respective places and the outsiders were beaten a long way from home. Both the winner and the runner-up demonstrated good battling qualities in their race to the line and with an overall reasonable standard of jumping along with a lack of hard luck stories, the form appears to be solid.

    Peat Moss is this season's second winner from as many runners in this sphere for both trainer Nigel Hawke and sire Fracas. He had shown little on the flat and was disappointing last time out but his profile suggested that he could do better over hurdles. There was promise on his debut at Newton Abbot and while racing prominently cost him any real chance at Cartmel, a change in tactics and a strong pace set by the leader enabled him to realise his debut potential. A visor introduced at Lingfield was retained here and it likely helped him settle into a nice rhythm in the rear of the field. He has a neat and quiet way of going over his hurdles and while he is not the type to steal a couple of lengths in the air, his style does allow him to conserve energy. Closing on the leaders after the sixth, his run to the line was more a steady gallop than an explosive burst. Nevertheless, he was game in his effort and was able to get his nose in front in the shadow of the post. Peat Moss had previously never finished closer than seven lengths to a winner but he proved today that he is not averse to a battle. This marks a new career best although the race did pan out perfectly for him here and he might struggle under a penalty at this level. Nevertheless, while he probably lacks the scope of the runner up, he put in an honest performance and his better conditions and tactics are now more apparent. 105

    Bourbali has a fantastic pedigree for the game and was only just denied a winning debut at the post. He looked calm and well beforehand and he travelled as well as anything from the outset. His jumping was fairly novicey in the early stages and was not entirely fluent at the final two flights. There was nothing alarming about his jumping and he put in some very good leaps in the middle of the race so while there is room for improvement, he already has a decent foundation. Bourbali looked the likeliest winner from some way out and traded as low as 1.08 in running. Much the best of those who raced prominently, he did not lack for willingness in the closing stages and ran straight and true up to the line. It was only really inexperience that cost him the race and he can emerge a fair deal better than this level. This was a most promising debut effort. 105

    Treaty Of Dingle was another making her hurdling debut and put in a creditable performance first time. Following three successive seconds, she was claimed out of a Lingfield claimer at long odds-on. With her sex allowance taken into account, she came into the race with the highest flat rating. She was slightly keen early on but apart from a slightly awkward jump at the fourth, put in a decent round and kept on well enough to the line. While she did not quite match her flat standard here, she should be able to reach a similar level over jumps in due course. 92

    Calidus Mirabilis had shown enough to suggest he can win a race of this nature during his first two runs in Ireland for Joseph O'Brien. However, his endurance is suspect which made the tactics employed today all the more baffling. Racing prominently is often advantageous in juvenile hurdles although to do so in an aggressive fashion requires completely assured stamina. He was still in the lead right up to the penultimate flight but was headed immediately afterwards and was beaten by over twelve lengths without being eased. Calidus Mirabilis is an adequate jumper but does lack fluency and as in previous outings, his hurdling did deteriorate once his tank began to empty. This outing was less a regression than a misuse of tactics as there was still evidence of his relative capabilities. He does need an easy test to show his best however and he may continue to disappoint in the absence of optimal conditions. 92

    Prince Percy made a fair impression on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July but had disappointed in the interim on the flat. He was backed into favouritism here but was pulled up between the final two flights which would make this the fifth time in his latest six starts that he has been unable to justify market support. He was keen early on and while he jumped well on his debut, was slightly slow at the third and got in close to the fifth and sixth before jumping his last flight slowly. He is obviously thought capable of better than this and there is a level over hurdles where he can be competitive. However, his current disposition does not inspire faith and while his being cast in his box during the summer was probably not too damaging, a session on a horse sized psychiatrist's couch might be helpful. 80

    Lightning Bug's starting price of 150/1 was a fair reflection of her chances and while she managed to beat the other outsiders, she was a good dozen lengths off the leading quintet when coming to grief three from home. It was not a blunder that caused her demise, rather she crumpled on landing after the flight had been negotiated. While slightly awkward at a couple of her other jumps, it was not the worst round for a newcomer but she still has plenty to prove going forward. 0

    Brown Eyed Girl's official flat rating of 51 looked steep for what she had actually achieved but she was bred to be better over hurdles and her trainer has a good record in this race. However, Brown Eyed Girl was keen early on but was already being ridden with a circuit left to run and would tail off before being pulled up three out. She may do better if she learns to settle and her jumping was fine apart from a slow jump at the first but there is nothing immediately promising about her future prospects. 0

    Full Secret had shown a modicum of ability on the flat for Richard Fahey and was another representing a trainer whose charges have outran their odds in this race. However, she was even further detached from further out than Brown Eyed Girl and safe jumping aside, offered little encouragement. 0

    LISTOWEL
    Preview review
    Longclaw was expected to win more comfortably than he did but while Scholastic hit 1.02 in running, she was never in front for any more than half a stride. Scholastic jumped considerably better than she had on her previous two starts which enabled her to close the margin between herself and the winner. At War's jumping was decent enough for him to outrun his odds while Little Brother was a little too headstrong to do himself justice. Made In Pimlico's effort was not expected but his trainer does get winners in the division and with him quickly pulling up halfway through his sole start this year, he was somewhat unexposed.

    Race review
    Today's race at Listowel lost a great deal of its interest when Duffle Coat was withdrawn this morning after reportedly being found sore. Nevertheless, it ended up being more competitive than originally anticipated. A pair of keen and free running horses ensured a solid tempo although the winning time was slowest by standard on the card as well as being slower than any of the previous renewals ran on similar ground. The standard of jumping was generally decent, especially by the first two home, and although the loose horse briefly involved herself in the back straight, there were no real hard luck stories. The first three home give the form a decent endorsement but it is diminished by the proximity of the 125/1 shot Made In Pimlico. In all, the race was a decent quality for the time of year but it looks unlikely to have a great influence on the season's better races.

    Longclaw made it three from three and was made to battle for the first time in his hurdling career. He posted his best round of jumping to date and though he lost some momentum after getting in close to the last, was able to rally and fend off his persistent challenger. While the runner-up got very close to him, she was in receipt of seventeen pounds and her jumping had massively improved since her last appearance. The form is still as good as anything he has produced thus far and his demonstration of battling qualities entitles this performance to stand marginally as his best to date. With the exception of stablemate Duffle Coat, he stands nine pounds clear of the rest of Ireland's juveniles for the time being. However, he appears to be reaching the limits of his potential and unless the better types are slow to emerge, he may struggle once he forced to step up in class. 126

    Scholastic is no better on the flat than her official mark of 70 at this juncture and her jumping left plenty to be desired coming into this race. However, apart from being slightly slow over the second, there was a considerable improvement in her hurdling here and she was on occasion very slick. She also displayed a good attitude in running to the line and was held by only a narrow margin. On this evidence, she is more than capable of winning a small race and her newfound zest for hurdling may provoke further improvement. Notwithstanding, she was still receiving plenty of weight from the winner and her form is still a long way from pattern class so her aspirations can only be limited for the time being. 109

    At War is officially rated 75 on the flat but his recent efforts have not reflected that mark. He did not run to that level on his hurdling debut at Punchestown either but his jumping was good there and he replicated his proficiency again this afternoon. He was keen early and was running freely when extending his lead as he embarked on the second circuit. Nevertheless, his jumping was always slick and his first slight error came after he was impeded by the loose horse approaching the sixth. He was headed soon after but was still able to keep tabs on the leaders and it was only on entering the straight that the first two pulled clear of him. He will need to learn how to settle but he has the engine and the hurdling ability to be a problem at this standard. 105

    Made In Pimlico had no right to be involved in the race based on his previous flat form and he got in close to several of his hurdles along the way here. He was pulled up quickly half way through his debut at Tipperary after apparently being hampered so was arguably unexposed in that regard. His trainer also managed two winners from three juvenile hurdlers last season which is an improvement on what he had achieved previously. Furthermore, Made In Pimlico was trying cheekpieces for the first time along with his tongue-tie which is another possible factor in his dramatic improvement. Strictly on this outing, he is capable of being competitive in moderate company but he would perhaps first need to demonstrate that this was not a fluke. 104

    Little Brother was the other winner in the field but he had disappointed on his return to the flat and he did not quite match the form of his Bellewstown win here. Despite being a winner over hurdles, he has not been the best jumper and there were a few flights here where he was not entirely fluent. That he was rather headstrong did not help him either despite the reapplication of the cheekpieces he wore when winning on his penultimate start. Nevertheless, the form he has shown today is not too far off his best so there is no reason to suspect any severe regression and he would still be respected in lesser company. 108

    Finsceal Blue was one of two racecourse debutants in the field but while his sire has a fair record in the division, he did not have the most compelling profile beforehand. Always towards the rear of the field, his jumping was not especially fluent in the early stages and he began to get detached before the field reached the back straight. It would not be difficult for him to improve on this effort but there was little immediate promise. 49

    Social Distancing was the other racecourse debutant and her pedigree suggested that she would be neither sharp nor forward enough for this test. She jumped slowly and was detached early on in the race. She was completely tailed off when she fell at the last and there is nothing encouraging to be drawn from this performance. 0

    Waterville Lady represented a trainer with a decent record in this race but she was not especially well supported in the market. She jumped to her right and unseated her rider at the second and was fairly wild when jumping loose over the next. 0

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  27. #119
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    Excellent reviews as usual, BH. So far as Plumpton was concerned the only one I can take out of the race is Bourbali. Agree with your summing up and the final couple of ragged jumps cost him a length or so and possibly the race as well. It will be interesting to see how he goes next time.

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    The next race in the UK is due to take place at Perth where Lucinda Russel's recent purchase Red Missile is among the entries and Saturday could see a rematch between Hiconic and Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen in which is generally the Triumph Hurdle of the summer. In the meantime however will be the Prix Robert Lejeune at Auteuil which is due off at 14:35 GMT tomorrow afternoon.

    It is usually a stepping stone to the Grade Ones for French three-year-olds and tomorrow's renewal features the country's top three in the division by prize money. In the past, the race has been a port of call for those who would compete in juveniles on this side of the channel although as this table demonstrates, this has not been the case in recent years.



    There are a couple of horses running tomorrow who are listed in the triumph markets. Baladin de Mesc is available at 33/1 with William Hills, 10bet and and Sport Nation and Raffles Face can be backed at 40/1 with Sky Bet and 33/1 with Bet365 and Unibet. However, while this is not to say that bookmakers are deceitful parasites, it should be noted that both of these horses are still trained in France. It is possible that one or two of these might end the four year hiatus and make their way to these shores but it would still be nice if these imports were confirmed before bookmakers began accepting bets on said animals.

    Nevertheless, it is an interesting race in its own right and there will be some indirect clues insofar as horses who have actually been imported are concerned.



    Videos of the races mentioned below can be found through the links.

    Magneto, Jeu de Paume and Baladin de Mesc were first, second and fourth respectively in July's Prix Aguado and Prunay (black cap, red sleeves) would finish third on that occasion. Prunay cost €240,000 at Arqana's summer sale and he is currently available at 50/1. To this day, Prunay's new trainer has remained elusive but perhaps all will be revealed when my OJA arrives...

    Two horses whose new home is publicly known are Paros and Hacker des Places and the pair were split by Jeu de Paume in a conditions hurdle at Dieppe back in May. Paros (red, white crossbelts, black cap), who currently heads the Triumph betting at 22/1 is with Nicky Henderson while Hacker des Places (maroon, gold seams) has joined Paul Nicholls and is available at 50/1.

    Likely outsider Hirta also has form which ties in with UK imports as he was fourth on his debut in the Prix Rush behind a pair of Paul Nicholls recruits in Monmiral (dark blue, white cap) and Hell Red (grey horse). The former is currently priced at 33/1 while the latter is 25/1.

    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Excellent reviews as usual, BH. So far as Plumpton was concerned the only one I can take out of the race is Bourbali. Agree with your summing up and the final couple of ragged jumps cost him a length or so and possibly the race as well. It will be interesting to see how he goes next time.
    Cheers barjon. The rest of the field did look much of a muchness but while Bourbali probably won't be a world beater, he did look as though he can leave his rivals behind as the season progresses. I have had a look at the rest of the three-year-olds in the Tizzard yard but they are all store horses so Bourbali might well be the yard's flagship juvenile by default!

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