Hi Maxbet
Since the 2008/09 season, there have been 403 juveniles on 3.00, 350 on 3.01 plus with another 6 on "infinity". Isolating 2017/18 to last season, I have 69 on 3.00 and 53 on 3.01 plus. Given that so few of those juveniles have made it to your charts, would there be substance to the premise that juveniles with higher DIs would be less likely to train on?
I only introduced myself to DIs after this thread was started and will be the first to admit that my understanding is rather shallow. I can't remember when I made this image (but a look at the properties says the 28th of September) but while it is still fairly rudimentary, it definitely shows a tangible relationship between DIs and RPRs since 2008/09.
While the DI figure alone paints only a narrow and imperfect picture, the information can still offer an impetus to explore a form element which might otherwise go ignored. I believe that further use can be made of DIs by looking at the depth or the distribution although I have yet to see how this can be applied to juvenile hurdlers. If you have any insight then I would be most attentive.
Cheers Grey. Not that I had any money on it but I was pleased to see the drift. A winner at evens always looks better than a 2/5 shot in a six runner race!
Unfortunately, while I did annihilate my liver during a couple of Punchestown Festivals during my twenties, the prospect of free booze would be lost on me now I'm a teetotaller (which perhaps explains how I am able to write thousands of words on innocuous races!). That said, I'm never one to turn down a slap up meal
Couple of interesting races on Saturday with Hell Red, Duffle Coat and Adagio putting their undefeated records on the line at Cheltenham, while a couple of Joseph O'Brien newcomers take on Dark Voyager and Perry Owens at Punchestown. The previews for those races should hopefully be up before Saturday morning. In the meantime, a catch up on this week's action.
Poker Master 10/11/2020 Huntingdon 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle
Poker Master had finished well beaten on his first two outings over hurdles, but left that form well behind on his latest outing at Sedgefield when second to Gold Desert. While the winner ran with credit next time, the third was subsequently disappointing and the race did not look great in any case. His rating ahead of his handicap debut looked reasonable without being generous and there were stamina concerns going into the race. Poker Master opened as one of the favourites on the evening prior but had drifted out to 11/1 by the off. Racing wide and settling in midfield, he jumped well with the only mistake coming at the third where he was close and untidy. He managed to get in touch with the leaders but was one paced from the straight and ultimately finished fifth of the nine finishers. It would have been sixth of ten but for a late faller but while the winner won easily, he was still only three lengths behind the second. With the winning time some ten seconds quicker than the first division, the stamina concerns might have been resolved. While he is not a well handicapped horse, it was a creditable performance and based on his aptitude here, he can at least maintain this standard. 90
BANGOR
Preview review
The first two in the prospects list matched the finishing order and there was is little to re-evaluate in this regard. Nuriel ran rather below expectations but those expectations were not high and though he did not perform on the racecourse, he was backed from 66/1 to as low as 13/2. Sure I'm You Man outran his position on the list. His decent overall profile was acknowledged but his prospects were denigrated by his poor flat run. It should have been considered that it was his first flat run for four months and it followed a wind operation.
Race review
The race looked fairly weak beforehand and a dawdling early pace did nothing to add substance. There were slow and awkward jumps from most of the runners but this can largely be attributed to the gallop and criticisms regarding same would be harsh. In fairness, there was not much in the way of hard pulling or excessive keenness which generally prevails in this kind of contest. Furthermore, there were sound reasons for the field finishing as they did so while matters of merit and aptitude have not been elucidated, the finishing order looks perfectly rational.
Pyramid Place came into the race with the prospects of a long odds-on shot, having by far the most superior flat form and hurdles form with scope for plenty of improvement. However, while he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage and presumably, this occurred when the runner-up appeared to be travelling slightly the better three furlongs out. Tucked in behind the leaders, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold just as essentially every runner in the field, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot eventually take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear lead by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win this and from a form perspective, this effort was no better than his Lingfield outing. Nevertheless, he will likely perform better in a more truly run race and with a win to his name and a sound aptitude, he can progress from here. 107
Admiral Balko was the fifth unraced horse from the Williams yard to make his debut in juvenile hurdles this season, and the second to finish runner-up first time. Sharing the pacemaking duties up to the fifth, he established a clear lead shortly after and was the last horse to come off the bridle. He was outpaced by the winner from the distance, but was able to maintain his superiority over the third placed horse. His jumping was decent for a debutant and counted only insignificant errors in the early stages before pressure caused him to be slightly low at the penultimate flight, and close and slow over the last. Due to the race's composition, the bare form is not worth a great deal. However, it was a perfectly satisfactory introduction and he should benefit for the experience. 103
Sure I'm Your Man was no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Roger Charlton, and his first run after a break and a wind operation for his new yard saw him well beaten at Newcastle. Nevertheless, he has a respectable pedigree for the discipline and attracted a fair amount of support in the betting. Though he was slightly awkward over the first and rather low at the last, the only real quibble with his jumping was at the third where he steadied on the approach before hopping over the flight. The best of those racing from the rear, he got to within a couple of lengths of the leaders three furlongs out but was unable to keep tabs on them from thereon. Sure I'm Your Man was another who made a satisfactory debut and can be competitive in an ordinary race. However, while he remains relatively unexposed and is bred to develop with age, he lacks the potential of the first two. 99
The Imposter achieved little during one start in each code at Chepstow. Nevertheless, while he was well beaten last time, he did not jump too badly and apart from steadying at the third, also put in a fair round here. Bred to appreciate cut in the ground, he posted a career best effort, even if it was a one-paced fourth of six. The Imposter remains unexposed and is making progress. While he looks nothing out of the ordinary, he could make an impact in a lesser race where there is more of an emphasis on stamina. 96
Nuriel was having his third outing just over a month after his debut but while he was well backed on account of his being unexposed and bred to prefer soft ground, he posted what was his worst effort to date. He helped to set the pace but was not particularly fluent and weakened quickly after losing his position at the fifth. While the trainer has gone a while without a winner, it would not be entirely accurate to suggest that his runners are out of form. 63
Badreputation ran twice in the summer for Marco Botti before joining his new yard for 2,000 guineas. Since then, he was twice well beaten on the flat and was the least fluent jumper on his hurdling debut here. There is little encouragement to be drawn from his profile and he looks rather limited. 43