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Thread: Epsom Derby 2020

  1. #141
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    Dettori is the last person to admit he rode a poor race and the first to find an excuse.

    Yes agree with you Maruco that Mogul was still tubby. Next time out for all Derby fancies plus the winner will be fascinating.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  2. #142
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    So are we really saying Dettori was at fault in the Derby!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  3. #143
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    Dettori is the last person to admit he rode a poor race and the first to find an excuse.
    .
    I'm saying it was a different jockey.

    Totally agree with the above, regularly trotted out stock answers. They went too fast, they went too slow, couldn't get a position, couldn't hold a position, ground was too fast/slow/tacky, there was no pace, the weight did him/her, drawn badly, didn't stay, needs further....la la la la
    Vote Alfie!!!!

  4. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    So are we really saying Dettori was at fault in the Derby!
    I think all bar the first three were at fault for letting a trailblazer (who had run like that before and got away from his field) get away from them. They assumed he was the pacemaker and would fold. You wouldn’t let a Mark Johnston horse get that much of a lead as they don’t stop so why let an unexposed, improving son of Galileo?
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  5. #145
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    I'm saying it was a different jockey.

    Totally agree with the above, regularly trotted out stock answers. They went too fast, they went too slow, couldn't get a position, couldn't hold a position, ground was too fast/slow/tacky, there was no pace, the weight did him/her, drawn badly, didn't stay, needs further....la la la la
    Dettori is by far the best jockey we have.

    He wasn't to blame for EK jumping out to his left from the gate. That cost him ground. As AMcN says in his analysis, he probably ended up three lengths further back than he really wanted to be but couldn't afford to push the hose forward going up the hill as that's a tactical mistake in itself.

    He was caught in the pack along with the others when the leader kicked and the sectionals suggest he was second-best on the day, which is where he nearly finished. I'm not sure he did much wrong compared with any of the other jockeys beyond the front three.

    I do find it curious, though, that he would use not acting on the track as an excuse. I'd have thought he'd have been more likely to use the start and being trapped in the pack. At Lingfield he wasn't asked any questions until they'd turned for home. Maybe being asked for more earlier unbalanced the horse.

    In any event, if the race was run tomorrow, I'd be more than happy if Dettori was my jockey.
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  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Dettori is by far the best jockey we have.
    The by far is pure bias on your behalf.

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  8. #147
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    I think all bar the first three were at fault for letting a trailblazer (who had run like that before and got away from his field) get away from them.
    I agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    They assumed he was the pacemaker and would fold.
    I agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    You wouldn’t let a Mark Johnston horse get that much of a lead as they don’t stop so why let an unexposed, improving son of Galileo?
    I agree.

    However, I'm not convinced they could have gone that much quicker themselves anyway. They could - maybe - have collectively been five lengths further forward in the first six furlongs but they would have paid a price for that later on. The sectional mark-ups, if my calculations using Simon Rowlands's formula are correct, are much less for the pack than they are for the winner whose energy was distributed far less efficiently.

    It is a strange one.

    It's possible Serpentine isn't really that far ahead. Personally I'll believe he is until future events prove otherwise. However, we do sometimes get sensational one-off performances that don't get backed up over time.

    Roberto's defeat of Brigadier Gerard comes to mind. Connections claimed the Brigadier coughed up a big lump of mucus shortly after the race but the horse had smashed the old track record and beat the third every bit as far as he'd been expected. Roberto was just brilliant on the day but does that make him better than Brigadier Gerard?

    We don't have form ratings etc for War Admiral and Seabiscuit, so how was the latter who was doing his stuff in handicaps able to trounce the former the one time they met?

    Would sectional analysis provide answers?

    I don't know.

    And if you get the chance, listen again to Ruby Walsh talking about the RSA won by Might Bite. He said he was laughing to himself through the first mile, confident that the Henderson horse was going far too fast and the chasing pack were going too fast as well and that he was just going to pick them off up the hill, "then at the top of the hill the leader just quickened away again" and nothing could live with it.

    MB never put up that kind of performance again and neither did Roberto, probably because it took them to places their mind and body didn't want to go to again. It's possible Serpentine won't back up his run for similar reasons.

    Right now, though, I just think we have a very moderate crop of three-year-olds and that Serpentine has been under-rated. Maybe the test that Saturday provided and the way the race was run has surprised even AOB who perhaps didn't know he had a potential superstar on his hands. Maybe we'll never see the same Serpentine again.

    But it will be fascinating to see how he runs.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th July 2020 at 10:12 AM.
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  9. #148
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've crunched some more numbers.

    In the absence of a true-run all-age handicap over 12f on the same card, time comparisons become tenuous.

    With that in mind, the fastest other race on the round course was the Surrey won by Safe Voyage, which looked strongly run on TV, so I've had to use that as the basis for my going allowance.

    Using the current RP standards, Love's time rating is 107 and Serpentine's is 104. To that you need to factor in WFA, 13lbs according to the BHA table. I don't have Timeform's WFA table to hand (I had it a couple of weeks ago so it isn't far!) but at this time of year I think the scales are close to harmonised.

    So let's say 13lbs for the time being.

    This puts Love on 120, plus any sectional mark-up and any allowance for ease of victory. It puts Serpentine on 117 plus mark-up and allowance.

    My own old Standard Times for the 12f Epsom course are the same but the one for the Surrey distance is slightly different. Using that comparison Love and Serpentine come out 3lbs lower.

    As I said yesterday, [possibly flawed] sectional mark-ups would give Love another 2lbs and Serpentine another 10lbs. I reckon Love would have had maybe another length in her (but she can wait for broodmare duties for that ) because Moore wasn't asking her for absolutely everything and I reckon although Serpentine was slowing down the jockey could have forced him to another half-length to a length, so I'd allow Love another 2lbs and Serpentine another 1lb.

    Best case scenario based purely on times: Love 124p, Serpentine 128p
    Worst case: Love 121p, Serpentine 125p

    This puts both right up there with the better Oaks and Derby winners - especially Love - but it puts the beaten horses right down in among the all-time dross.

    And, especially for Granger:


    • Love is a brilliant 3yo filly
    • Serpentine is a very good 3yo colt


    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th July 2020 at 1:07 PM.
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  11. #149
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    I think all bar the first three were at fault for letting a trailblazer (who had run like that before and got away from his field) get away from them. They assumed he was the pacemaker and would fold. You wouldn’t let a Mark Johnston horse get that much of a lead as they don’t stop so why let an unexposed, improving son of Galileo?
    Often the case that you are hostage to how the race unfolds in front of you. How EK broke dictated the rest of his race. He was reliant on being carried in to the race from his position.
    Some had stamina questions and saw what had happened in the Oaks previously.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  12. #150
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Dettori is by far the best jockey we have.

    He wasn't to blame for EK jumping out to his left from the gate. That cost him ground. As AMcN says in his analysis, he probably ended up three lengths further back than he really wanted to be but couldn't afford to push the hose forward going up the hill as that's a tactical mistake in itself.

    He was caught in the pack along with the others when the leader kicked and the sectionals suggest he was second-best on the day, which is where he nearly finished. I'm not sure he did much wrong compared with any of the other jockeys beyond the front three.

    I do find it curious, though, that he would use not acting on the track as an excuse. I'd have thought he'd have been more likely to use the start and being trapped in the pack. At Lingfield he wasn't asked any questions until they'd turned for home. Maybe being asked for more earlier unbalanced the horse.

    In any event, if the race was run tomorrow, I'd be more than happy if Dettori was my jockey.
    When he's on something he thinks can win maybe, although I still wouldn't have him. Could say a lot more but not on a public forum.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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  14. #151
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    When he's on something he thinks can win maybe, although I still wouldn't have him. Could say a lot more but not on a public forum.
    I'd imagine the same could be the case about many top jockeys (and other top sportsmen). As an owner you would have the prerogative of not employing him. I can think of a few 'top' jockeys I wouldn't want on a horse I owned.
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  15. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've crunched some more numbers.

    In the absence of a true-run all-age handicap over 12f on the same card, time comparisons become tenuous.

    With that in mind, the fastest other race on the round course was the Surrey won by Safe Voyage, which looked strongly run on TV, so I've had to use that as the basis for my going allowance.

    Using the current RP standards, Love's time rating is 107 and Serpentine's is 104. To that you need to factor in WFA, 13lbs according to the BHA table. I don't have Timeform's WFA table to hand (I had it a couple of weeks ago so it isn't far!) but at this time of year I think the scales are close to harmonised.

    So let's say 13lbs for the time being.

    This puts Love on 120, plus any sectional mark-up and any allowance for ease of victory. It puts Serpentine on 117 plus mark-up and allowance.
    As I said in a my previous post I don't usually handicap flat races but this was precisely the way I handicapped the race DO. I allowed a further pound for ease of victory and placed Serpentine on 118. I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.

  16. #153
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.
    As I said, Maruco, I used Simon Rowlands's formula for mark-ups but may have miscalculated. I note that Timeform's sectional mark him up 'only' 5lbs. The very fact that he was the slowest finisher in the entire field (which I read somewhere but it may have excluded Worthily which was eased down) after kicking on screams [to me at any rate] that he went two furlongs too soon but the move won him the race on the day. I believe he would have won by further if the jockey had held on to him for at least another furlong.

    Good to know we're thinking along similar lines, though. Great minds and fools and all that
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  17. #154
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    This thing's been done to death now.
    My simple opinion is that Sepentine is an exceptional horse and - given time - he'll prove it.
    Last edited by reet hard; 9th July 2020 at 12:10 PM.

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  19. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    As I said in a my previous post I don't usually handicap flat races but this was precisely the way I handicapped the race DO. I allowed a further pound for ease of victory and placed Serpentine on 118. I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.
    the par in the course is 111% and the winner did it on 106%

    5 pounds is the absolute minimum

    top class horse

  20. #156
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    Does anyone know what the plans are for Serpentine? No entry in the Leger despite his obvious staying performance (OK commercially not the best option). Not quoted for the Arc and would need to be supplemented. In any case they already think they have the winner in Love. So that leaves the Champion Stakes for which he is quoted. But eery silence on him or have I missed something?
    Last edited by jinnyj; 8th September 2020 at 12:08 PM. Reason: Wrote Irish in but it’s not!
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  21. #157
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Holds an entry on Qipco Champion Stakes Day October 17th

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...-10-17/765797/
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 8th September 2020 at 10:25 AM.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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  23. #158
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    Does anyone know what the plans are for Serpentine? No entry in the Leger despite his obvious staying performance (OK commercially not the best option). Not quoted for the Arc and would need to be supplemented. In any case they already think they have the winner in Love. So that leaves the Irish Champion Stakes for which he is quoted. But eery silence on him or have I missed something?
    Due to run on Sunday in the Grand Prix de Paris.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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  25. #159
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    So now what do we think? Mogul won tidily enough. I think had the jockey been harder on Serpentine, he possibly would have been second. It was a fair run but no more IMO. Although I imagine AOB has probably left a bit to work on. He clearly gave him a break after Epsom due to having quick runs at that stage in his life and he will have needed it.
    My verdict is poor Derby won by an enterprising ride. I think Serpentine can still progress but he’s no superstar (likewise English King massively overrated by his trainer). And I would imagine him staying in training at four. Is he going for the Arc after that?
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Wouldn't write him off just yet, Jinny. As his trainer said, afterwards "he had a long break and was just starting back. I was very happy with how happy Christophe [Soumillon] was". Stable has a wealth of talent for the Arc, and it's not beyond the realms he may be one of them
    ...
    Last edited by reet hard; 13th September 2020 at 8:55 PM.

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