Page 7 of 8 FirstFirst ... 2345678 LastLast
Results 121 to 140 of 160

Thread: Epsom Derby 2020

  1. #121
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,312
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,033 Times in 875 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I think the main problem was not that people were actually knocking what Serpentine did it was more that others weren't even put in the race. How you could say that Serpentine is exceptional when he's been beaten 2 lengths by a filly at levels doesn't sound right Reet even if you upgraded him for going a bit too fast through the mid section. If you were saying to me he was decent and a fair winner who may have won even if the others had been put in the race then fair enough but exceptional off the back of that ? No. I suppose we'll see as the season pans out but it wouldn't surprise me if he weren't ever to win another race. Where would he go next ? KG, Arc, Leger, Irish Champion stakes, Breeder cup ?
    No Danny, he wasn't beaten by anything. The filly ran a slightly faster time, but in entirely different circumstances, and there's nothing - absoutely nothing - to suggest she would have won the Derby the way the race was ridden.
    Horses race against each other, not the stopwatch,and the fact is Serpentine - racing against better horses than Love did - tore his field apart.
    Last edited by reet hard; 7th July 2020 at 4:07 AM.

  2. #122
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,891
    Thanks
    84
    Thanked 318 Times in 204 Posts
    Had he been favourite, he wouldn't have been allowed the lead. It might be that the fancied horses would have finished where they did in any case, but he wont be allowed that luxury again.

    Sovereign showed last year that you can steal Derbies.

  3. #123
    Senior Member sunybay's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Madrid
    Posts
    4,184
    Thanks
    23
    Thanked 52 Times in 33 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Had he been favourite, he wouldn't have been allowed the lead. It might be that the fancied horses would have finished where they did in any case, but he wont be allowed that luxury again.

    Sovereign showed last year that you can steal Derbies.
    Serpentine was not allowed a lead, he went too fast and despite that destroyed the field.

  4. #124
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    Love who committed earlier in her race was still quicker over the last couple of furlongs than the closers in the Derby.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  5. #125
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    4,194
    Thanks
    562
    Thanked 1,222 Times in 620 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Kevin Blake really does talk a lot of bollocks much of the time .

    Serpentine is a beautifully bred , fast improving colt given an excellent ride but when Emmet Mc Namara took a breather coming down the hill none of the other jockeys even tried to close - shocking rides given by all but the jockeys on the front three IMO . You would have thought they would have learned their lesson after Sovereign in the Irish Derby last year . These horses are bred to be high class and to stay - they don’t stop .

    I almost expected Lester’s statue to have put one of his hands over his eyes.

    As for Slip Anchor watching the replay the other jockeys are trying to close coming down the hill they just could not get near - this lot did not even try.
    +1
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  6. #126
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Love who committed earlier in her race was still quicker over the last couple of furlongs than the closers in the Derby.
    I don't think the sectionals back that up, Frankel. I'll have another look to check but I'm pretty sure she committed at the right time. Ever the one to have a downer on Moore, I'm not sure it was down to brilliant riding; rather, I reckon that was just her getting into top gear after being asked a furlong earlier.

    Not that it really matters. She is clearly a mile better than any of the other 3yo fillies.

    I'd said after the Guineas that I reckoned she would beat the colts with the allowance. She might just be good enough to beat them without any allowance.

    I was struggling to muster up any enthusiasm on Saturday morning for any 3yo bar Love but now I think we have genuine G1 classic winners.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #127
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Incidentally, I see the Irish handicapper has only given Serpentine 120. That strikes me as an insult. I presume it's been arrived at in consultation with the British official but the blog hasn't been released yet.

    If Serpentine is only 120, how bad must the rest of the field be?

    I'll crunch some numbers myself tomorrow but my immediate (well, Sunday) rating for Serpentine was 124+p, pending hard-copy data.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #128
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Kameko didn't stay
    Russian Emperor was given a **** ride
    Mogul was given a tender ride, this year's Japan
    English King followed Mogul and stayed on ok. He was very warm beforehand and undoubtedly expended energy he needed for the race.

    The fact that the 2nd and 3rd were in those possies throughout suggests the better horses were too far back off of an average pace.

  9. #129
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The fact that the 2nd and 3rd were in those possies throughout suggests the better horses were too far back off of an average pace.
    Yes, it does, but the mark-ups appear marginal, maybe up to 5lbs, and suggest English King was the second-best horse in the field, but I still think Serpentine deserves a mark-up for going too fast from five out to three out.

    I hope to spend some time tomorrow crunching numbers, time ratings, mark-ups etc and will be doing so with an open mind but I'm half-expecting them to confirm that Serpentine is a good 7lbs better than anything else in the field.

    It will be interesting to see how his mark ends up comparing to Love's.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #130
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don't think the sectionals back that up, Frankel. I'll have another look to check but I'm pretty sure she committed at the right time. Ever the one to have a downer on Moore, I'm not sure it was down to brilliant riding; rather, I reckon that was just her getting into top gear after being asked a furlong earlier.

    Not that it really matters. She is clearly a mile better than any of the other 3yo fillies.

    I'd said after the Guineas that I reckoned she would beat the colts with the allowance. She might just be good enough to beat them without any allowance.

    I was struggling to muster up any enthusiasm on Saturday morning for any 3yo bar Love but now I think we have genuine G1 classic winners.
    Check out Rowlands sectionals on ATR. Looks like she was behind after 4f. Then she has put herself between a 1-2 seconds ahead of the finishing 4th-8th in the Derby at the just over mile point.
    They then made some ground up to the 10f before she was quicker to the line.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  11. #131
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Check out Rowlands sectionals on ATR. Looks like she was behind after 4f. Then she has put herself between a 1-2 seconds ahead of the finishing 4th-8th in the Derby at the just over mile point.
    They then made some ground up to the 10f before she was quicker to the line.
    Will do, Frankel. Thanks. I read the blog yesterday but I might be mixing it up with Angus McNae's assessment.

    I see the British handicapper has English King unchanged on 112. That's broadly in line with my own entirely underwhelmed view of the 3yos, which was why I fully expected an O'Brien horse to win. Like Euronymous, I had Mogul down as a Japan-type who would come into his own later in the season so I pinned my hopes on Vatican City. I'd seen Serpentine's win last week and presumed Vatican City would be better again but there you go. Timeform have put English King up to 118p (from 117p) and allowing for their ratings to tend to be about 5lbs higher than my own at the top end that might be in the right ball-park.

    However, like me, they go high with Love whom they have on the same 124p mark as Serpentine so the allowance would put her clear on ratings should their paths cross in a race. However, my own provisional rating for Love is 125+p so, if I'm anywhere near right, she is heading towards superstardom. John Gosden is absolutely right to fear her should she meet Enable somewhere down the line.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #132
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don't think the sectionals back that up, Frankel. I'll have another look to check but I'm pretty sure she committed at the right time.
    You're correct, Frankel.

    In the tables below the markers are approximate (*), ie it's not exactly the final four or two furlongs but they're all measured at the same point.

    Table one - ordered by their respective finishing times from about 4f out:

    Horse 4* 2*
    Russian Emperor 39.0 23.2
    Love 39.06 22.76
    English King 39.08 23.03
    Mogul 39.35 23.45
    Kameko 39.52 23.34
    Serpentine 41.53 24.48


    Table 2 - from approximately 2f out:
    Horse 4* 2*
    Love 39.06 22.76
    English King 39.08 23.03
    Russian Emperor 39.0 23.2
    Kameko 39.52 23.34
    Mogul 39.35 23.45
    Serpentine 41.53 24.48


    Russian Emperor clocked the fastest final half-mile and Love the fastest final quarter-mile.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #133
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    It would be good if Simon Rowlands (aka Prufrock on here) could pay us a visit to offer clarification but if my calcs are correct, Love can be marked up 2lbs but Serpentine can be marked up 10lbs.

    For the time being I'll settle for a '+' for Love and a '++' for Serpentine as a broader reflection of mark-ups but it reinforces my growing belief that Serpentine is a superior winner of a very inferior renewal.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #134
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post


    Russian Emperor clocked the fastest final half-mile and Love the fastest final quarter-mile.
    That's interesting because his rider was far from hard riding him the 100 yards or so.

  15. #135
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Not got much to lose.
    Posts
    3,187
    Thanks
    726
    Thanked 471 Times in 295 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Kameko didn't stay
    Russian Emperor was given a **** ride
    Mogul was given a tender ride, this year's Japan
    English King followed Mogul and stayed on ok. He was very warm beforehand and undoubtedly expended energy he needed for the race.

    The fact that the 2nd and 3rd were in those possies throughout suggests the better horses were too far back off of an average pace.
    Dettori said EK didn't handle the track. A stock answer in some cases where known horse will not run there again, but has been known to be true in the past.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to G-G For This Useful Post:

    Euronymous (7th July 2020)

  17. #136
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    Dettori said EK didn't handle the track. A stock answer in some cases where known horse will not run there again, but has been known to be true in the past.
    Also interesting considering how he breezed round Lingfield.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #137
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Be funny if AOB lucks out with a 3yo Arc winner because of the old Corona virus

  19. #138
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    While he wasn't fat like he was at Ascot, Mogul was still carrying a load of condition and there's still a tonne of improvement to come. Anything that finished around him or behind him won't trouble the judges in Grade 1's over a mile and half or further. The fact that every horse form 2nd down to 5th were no more than a length and a half ahead of him is enough for me to say the only horses of interest from the race are Serpentine and Mogul.

    It's rare for me to rate flat races, but because of the nature of the race I was intrigued to see if I could find an alternative angle to rate the race from. Whatever I do and however I look at it though, I can't find any way to rate Serpentine higher than 118. I'd happily put a p+ next to his name because of the way he won, but ultimately the performance is the performance, and that's it.

  20. #139
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,312
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,033 Times in 875 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    While he wasn't fat like he was at Ascot, Mogul was still carrying a load of condition and there's still a tonne of improvement to come. Anything that finished around him or behind him won't trouble the judges in Grade 1's over a mile and half or further. The fact that every horse form 2nd down to 5th were no more than a length and a half ahead of him is enough for me to say the only horses of interest from the race are Serpentine and Mogul.

    It's rare for me to rate flat races, but because of the nature of the race I was intrigued to see if I could find an alternative angle to rate the race from. Whatever I do and however I look at it though, I can't find any way to rate Serpentine higher than 118. I'd happily put a p+ next to his name because of the way he won, but ultimately the performance is the performance, and that's it.
    Unsure how you'd rate a race where 2nd and 3rd were untried over the distance, yet plenty of good horses behind couldn't get near them?

  21. #140
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Not got much to lose.
    Posts
    3,187
    Thanks
    726
    Thanked 471 Times in 295 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Also interesting considering how he breezed round Lingfield.
    Different jockey....................
    Vote Alfie!!!!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •