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Thread: Epsom Derby 2020

  1. #41
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I still think O'Brien will win and the Irish Derby cemented that opinion. I'd be pretty confident he knows he's got something better than Santiago or any of the others that dominated the finish of that race for this weekend.
    The Irish Derby was a Group 3 race. The non Ballydoyle runners were either future handicappers or obvious non stayers.

    Mogul is interesting, he made a move when he went odds on IR at Ascot but just blew up. I can't have him on Saturday for the same reasons as you. He'll be better later in the year, just like Japan was. The other Ballydoyles don't interest me at the prices.

    English King is awful short for a trainer who's never had a decent horse. I mean, his previous best was Story Antarctic and he couldn't even win a listed race at Windsor when he clearly had the best pre race form.

    Kameko is a non stayer

    That probably leaves an ew dutch on Pyledriver and Mohican Heights as the best option.

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    I've had two very rare flat bets for me, and I also backed Pyledrive and Mohican Heights ew antepost.

    A similar logic to you Euro in that I pretty much don't like anything at the head of the market for varying reasons, and it looks very much like a betting race for ew punters. The pair of them are sure to stay as well when there's plenty of doubts about others ahead of them in the market.
    Last edited by Maruco; 1st July 2020 at 9:57 AM.

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    Though Mogul and Japan are full brothers, they had very different preps for the Derby. Japan had never raced above 10f and his stamina - going into the race - was largely unknown. Mogul has, and around a stiff track (though he looked, for all the world, to run like a horse with a bigger prize in his sights). I'd also venture that mucle tone, rather than weight loss, is the way to full fitness.
    With the above in mind, I've taken 7/1 mogul this morning, in anticipation of RM riding him. We'll soon know whether that assumption is right or wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Though Mogul and Japan are full brothers, they had very different preps for the Derby. Japan had never raced above 10f and his stamina - going into the race - was largely unknown. Mogul has, and around a stiff track (though he looked, for all the world, to run like a horse with a bigger prize in his sights). I'd also venture that mucle tone, rather than weight loss, is the way to full fitness.
    With the above in mind, I've taken 7/1 mogul this morning, in anticipation of RM riding him. We'll soon know whether that assumption is right or wrong.
    Is Ryan Moore riding not already slightly factored in? Can he get much shorter?

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    Dunno, Slim. I'd assumed the Derby had 72 hour decs, in line with the rest of UK flat racing?

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    While Kameko has question marks over his stamina all the rest have questions marks as to whether they’re simply good enough. So 4/1 to take that chance about a Guineas winner looks okay to me

    It looks a poor year - Newcastle AW maiden + Listed race winner short priced fav - so he’ll only have to just about stay to beat these as he’s far ahead on form to date and ratings.

    He’s looked like a 10f horse and the comparisons with Roaring Lion are inevitable but Roaring Lion didn’t fare too badly over the extra 2f and was only outstayed by the winner and a horse who would go on to perform admirably in the top staying race and RL would win this IMO.

    Plus Kameko has Irish Derby winner Belmez in his Dam line so that offers some hope.

    Vatican City looks the potential fly in the ointment but he’s got his own stamina doubts of his own.
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Dunno, Slim. I'd assumed the Derby had 72 hour decs, in line with the rest of UK flat racing?
    Is it not gone to 48 hours now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    While Kameko has question marks over his stamina all the rest have questions marks as to whether they’re simply good enough. So 4/1 to take that chance about a Guineas winner looks okay to me

    It looks a poor year - Newcastle AW maiden + Listed race winner short priced fav - so he’ll only have to just about stay to beat these as he’s far ahead on form to date and ratings.

    He’s looked like a 10f horse and the comparisons with Roaring Lion are inevitable but Roaring Lion didn’t fare too badly over the extra 2f and was only outstayed by the winner and a horse who would go on to perform admirably in the top staying race and RL would win this IMO.

    Plus Kameko has Irish Derby winner Belmez in his Dam line so that offers some hope.

    Vatican City looks the potential fly in the ointment but he’s got his own stamina doubts of his own.
    I think he will be 5/1 Saturday morning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I think he will be 5/1 Saturday morning.
    Me too, as the plunge comes on Frankie and one or two of the Ballydoyle horses

    I hope so at least as the thieving then becomes a formality with likely 4 (even 5 ?) places available because stay or not, he'd have to fall over coming down the hill to finish out the four.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Me too, as the plunge comes on Frankie and one or two of the Ballydoyle horses

    I hope so at least as the thieving then becomes a formality with likely 4 (even 5 ?) places available because stay or not, he'd have to fall over coming down the hill to finish out the four.
    Steady on. You would never ever ever bet a dubious stayer each way. You are burning cash. Eased down is a massive player. Bet it win or pass.
    Last edited by Slim; 1st July 2020 at 3:50 PM.

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    Had a quick look through this and for what its worth I thought Russian Emperor looked the most solid of Ballydoyles, Vatican city if he stays fair enough. Wouldn't touch Mogul and tbh I'd be with Euro on Pyledriver although does he need juice in the ground ? I think he probably does. He pulled very hard at Royal Ascot and finished strongly certainly capable of a lot bigger performance. Would obviously need it to get on terms with the market leaders here but its certainly in the realms of possibility if they get bit of rain. From what I've seen I'm impressed with the market leaders but I have a mate who ain't a bad judge (certainly better than I ) of whether these young ones get the trip or not and he assures me Kameko will not get home.

    Bets wise, Russian Emperor for me, if we get a bit of juice in the ground I'll dutch with Pyledriver.
    Last edited by Danny; 1st July 2020 at 5:07 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Steady on. You would never ever ever bet a dubious stayer each way. You are burning cash. Eased down is a massive player. Bet it win or pass.
    In practically any other race I'd completely agree with you but 2nd or 3rd in the Derby is still a mightily valuable addition to a horse's stock, especially if he turns out to be a top class G1 performer over 10f, e.g. Roaring Lion.

    And I'm confident his pace will put him clear enough of most of the average horses he'll be up against such that Murphy would literally need to pull him up rather than ease him down.

    I'm struggling to think of the last time I saw a Derby runner in with a real chance 2f out be eased down and finish out of the places.

    Cue somebody proves me wrong...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Is it not gone to 48 hours now?
    Apparenly so, since June 24 - should never have listened to that RUK pundit yesterday.

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    I have read this thread, (I think I started it? ) and it made me look at the race again.

    It hasn't took me that long to find the horse who has both improved for stepping up to 10F and could be better at 12F, has done this at Royal Ascot in a respectable handicap and if it comes up soft can definately run a huge race.

    This horse is trained by Paul Cole and sons. He's called Highland Chief.

    I have missed the prices but still keen at 16/1 or thereabouts. What's the ground forecast to be on Saturday?

    If anyone like me was unsure about what to back I'd urge them to take a look at Highland Chief, especially if the rain comes.
    Last edited by Marb; 1st July 2020 at 11:05 PM.

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    Copied and pasted from the Longshot thread:

    I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

    I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

    He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

    The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

    On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

    I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.
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  19. #56
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    I’m not so sure Kameko won’t stay the trip looking at his pedigree. Kittens Joy was a rarity in that he won over 1m4f in the US as there are few races at that distance. Quite possibly as many of his progeny race over there, they don’t run over as far simply due to lack of opportunity.
    I thought he was tuned to perfection for the Guineas whereas many of AOBs have been needing a run (hence my interest in Mogul) I also wasn’t sure physically he would handle Epsom whereas I thought English King looked far more likely to (I have been very wrong in the past so don’t take this as gospel!)
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    English King and Mogul have terrible draws at 1 & 2, Highland Chief not much better in 13.

    Big positives for Kameko (11), Vatican City (8) and Russian Emperor (6).
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    Quite surprised that Ryan's gone for Mogul sort of dampens my enthusiasm for the others. I wouldn't mind a bet on Highland Chief, not to win the Derby but to take half the field out as he makes his challenge and then runs down the camber. Thing runs like me on my way home from the pub ...albeit a tad quicker.
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    Couldn’t resist an e/w poke on Worthily at 44.82/1 4 places in an open year. Has a mountain to climb from his debut win but looked really good there, is guaranteed to stay and stay well and has a nice draw.
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    English King and Mogul have terrible draws at 1 & 2, Highland Chief not much better in 13.

    Big positives for Kameko (11), Vatican City (8) and Russian Emperor (6).
    The 2 other Coolmores drawn close by will no doubt endeavour to ensure there's space down the inside for RM.

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