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Thread: Epsom Derby 2020

  1. #21
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    General consensus seems to be that Stoute won't rush him for the Derby and go for the Dante as a bridge to Group 1 company. Hard not be really impressed with that.
    Last edited by Slim; 24th June 2020 at 4:19 PM.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Stoute ran Ulysses in the Derby before he was ready. Can see him being reluctant to do the same again, esp with the same owner.

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    Yeah very impressive, Slim. I loved the way he travelled into contention like a very good horse. This fella could be better than Ulysses.

    If he comes out the race well they should let him take his chance. After all this is the Epsom Derby we are talking about. They only get one crack at it as 3 year olds.

    If he is a confirmed runner he will go off single figure prices on the day. I for one will be punting him.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th June 2020 at 2:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I used to hate it when Piggott got to jock off regular riders of fancied Derby horses.

    I suppose this means Gosden doesn't have anything for it and Coolmore don't plan to offer him anything.
    He's the owner's jockey normally isn't he? Real shame for Tom, he knows the horse now and vice a versa.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    That is what they said on ITV last week GG
    Thanks I don't always listen to the la la la in between races so probably missed it.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    Records for the two over the Derby course since 2017:

    DETTORI

    Date Race Horse Position SP £100 win £50 each way
    26 Apr 2017 3:15 Epsom BARWICK 3/9 12-1 -100 70
    2 Jun 2017 3:10 Epsom JOURNEY 5/10 7-2 -200 -30
    2 Jun 2017 4:30 Epsom ENABLE 1/9 6-1 400 330
    3 Jun 2017 4:30 Epsom CRACKSMAN 3/18 7-2 300 315
    3 Jun 2017 5:15 Epsom SHRAAOH 4/10 5-4 200 215
    1 Jun 2018 3:10 Epsom CRACKSMAN 1/6 2-7 228 232
    2 Jun 2018 4:30 Epsom HAZAPOUR 5/12 12-1 128 132
    31 May 2019 3:10 Epsom LAH TI DAR 6/9 11-4 28 32
    31 May 2019 4:30 Epsom ANAPURNA 1/14 8-1 828 512
    1 Jun 2019 4:30 Epsom CIRCUS MAXIMUS 6/13 10-1 728 412

    Totals

    Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP
    All Selections 10 3 30.0% 172.9% 5 50.0% 141.3%






    MARQUAND


    Date Race Horse Position SP £100 win £50 each way
    3 Jun 2017 5:15 Epsom GAWDAWPALIN 9/10 9-2 -100 -100
    3 Aug 2017 6:25 Epsom SAFIRA MENINA 4/6 9-2 -200 -200
    25 Apr 2018 3:20 Epsom C'EST NO MOUR 13/13 12-1 -300 -300
    28 Aug 2018 3:50 Epsom AMANTO 4/8 10-3 -400 -400
    4 Jul 2019 8:20 Epsom FORESEE 5/11 6-1 -500 -500
    18 Jul 2019 8:15 Epsom EL BORRACHO 5/5 4-1 -600 -600

    Totals

    Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP
    All Selections 6 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0%


    Figures from the excellent and FREE​ Adrian Massey site.
    This is like comparing apples and sausages: Marquand on nowhere near the calibre of horses Dettori is booked on. A lot of jockeys would have same record ish if on those type of horses.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    This is like comparing apples and sausages: Marquand on nowhere near the calibre of horses Dettori is booked on. A lot of jockeys would have same record ish if on those type of horses.
    I think the only fair comparison is to use however long TM has been going and use the first same amount of years for LD.

    Still applies and oranges in my opinion, but

    Tom will get the chances, he’s a bloody good jockey - but no matter how professional he’s being I bet he still feels **** about it


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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Yeah very impressive, Slim. I loved the way he travelled into contention like a very good horse. This fella could be better than Ulysses.

    If he comes out the race well they should let him take his chance. After all this is the Epsom Derby we are talking about. They only get one crack at it as 3 year olds.

    If he is a confirmed runner he will go off single figure prices on the day. I for one will be punting him.
    If he is confirmed it would be hard to see him go off bigger than 5/1 or 6/1.

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    I haven't seen the race but would not want to go overboard about it, just seeing the result.

    The first two were tracker horses for me but obviously had the market sewn up so I left the race alone. Put a gun to my head for a selection and I'd have gone for the Stoute horse becuse Waldkonig was so disappointing last time and it's possible that he's taking his time putting it together this season on the track or I wouldn't be surprised if Gosden (and Stoute with the winner for that matter) are more focused on the second half of the 'season'. And they weren't really that far clear of a bunch of 250/1 donks.

    Dettori for English King does speak volumes, I reckon, as he'll know what's happening in all the big stables but I can't get too excited about him either.

    I think it might end up a very competitive - in the sense that they're all substandard and of a similar standard - so I'm happy not to have a bet for now.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th June 2020 at 6:49 PM.
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    Military March has suffered a setback and is out of the Derby. Bollox!
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  12. #31
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I haven't seen the race but would not want to go overboard about it, just seeing the result.

    The first two were tracker horses for me but obviously had the market sewn up so I left the race alone. Put a gun to my head for a selection and I'd have gone for the Stoute horse becuse Waldkonig was so disappointing last time and it's possible that he's taking his time putting it together this season on the track or I wouldn't be surprised if Gosden (and Stoute with the winner for that matter) are more focused on the second half of the 'season'. And they weren't really that far clear of a bunch of 250/1 donks.

    Dettori for English King does speak volumes, I reckon, as he'll know what's happening in all the big stables but I can't get too excited about him either.

    I think it might end up a very competitive - in the sense that they're all substandard and of a similar standard - so I'm happy not to have a bet for now.
    I watched the race earlier today. I can't say I was impressed by it as a Derby trial. I wonder if Waldkonig stays. He was still in control as Moore got down to business on Highest Ground but ultimately couldn't go with it. I also wonder if Waldkonig has trained on or is taking time to come to himself, for all he appears to be impressing on the gallops. Morning glory, possibly too?

    There doesn't seem to be any strong vibes from either camp regarding these as potential Derby horses either.

    Shame about Military March too.
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    In a unique season it may not matter as much but classic form often works out and Vatican City showed promise at the Curragh.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Military March Out....

    Back in the Autumn

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    Bit gutted about that but am on English King and also Mogul as he should was fat at Ascot and must improve.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Kameko for me, English King is too short.
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    Quote Originally Posted by walsworth View Post
    Kameko for me.
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    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    In a unique season it may not matter as much but classic form often works out and Vatican City showed promise at the Curragh.
    Not sure he'd have the stamina, Archie, though AOB has enough entrants to call the pace tune to suit.
    Imo, he'll use them to set a proper test, with Mogul the likely beneficiary.Jockey bookings should tell all.

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    I had a quick look at the race on Monday. So far I'm still trying to find something worth backing.

    I would worry about English King. Apparently when asked the other day if he was the best horse he'd ever trained, the trainer said no, that was Stormy Antartica, which struggles in lower class.

    If Mogul was so overweight at Ascot, I can't see him being anything other than still overweight a couple of weeks later. Jason Weaver clearly had got word about Japan early last season but it didn't hit form until the second half of the season. He's talking similarly about Mogul and it looks like the horse will come good in time but maybe not in time for Saturday.

    I still think O'Brien will win and the Irish Derby cemented that opinion. I'd be pretty confident he knows he's got something better than Santiago or any of the others that dominated the finish of that race for this weekend.

    There was an O'Brien horse ran on into fourth or so in the Irish Guineas but its name escapes me and right now I can't be arsed to look it up . I'll probably include it in any bets I end up having.
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