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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I like a couple of big priced ones tomorrow.
    CITRON MAJOR 410Y 25/1 and
    MASTER MATT 615c 20/1
    I just noticed Master Matt got placed. So Good shout on that.

    On occasion I've played a bit of a multi on the longshot thread or and e/w double on selections that get put up only for a few quid for a bit of fun yet somehow I always seem to miss the days when the thread does well haha.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  3. #142
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Newbury 2.15 Bernardo O'Reilly 66/1 - won off this mark the last time he was on it so no way he should be this price.
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  4. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Newbury 2.15 Bernardo O'Reilly 66/1 - won off this mark the last time he was on it so no way he should be this price.
    To extract the full value just do a win bet @ 66/1 and fill your boots with the 20/1 for a place on b365 place market

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  6. #144
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frontrunner View Post
    To extract the full value just do a win bet @ 66/1 and fill your boots with the 20/1 for a place on b365 place market
    That's an angle I often exploit, frontrunner, but it didn't occur to me last night (after several drinks). Done now.

    It will probably finish fourth now.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th July 2020 at 9:31 AM.
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  7. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    That's an angle I often exploit, frontrunner, but it didn't occur to me last night (after several drinks). Done now.

    It will probably finish fourth now.
    The weight of your money has made the price contract to 17/2

    Good spot DO and good luck

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  9. #146
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    Pogo probably shouldn't be anywhere near 20/1 at Chantilly (3.25) this afternoon. His Windsor race maybe fell apart a wee bit but he destroyed a fair field and my figures suggest he only needs to find a couple of pounds' improvement to have as good a chance as anything else and he strikes me as being on a fair curve as it is. The win certainly isn't out of the question but it's a stonking ew bet.
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  11. #147
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    Thank you Jason Weaver. Queen Jo Jo took 30-1 on Betfair as they were going in.
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  12. #148
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    Thank you Jason Weaver. Queen Jo Jo took 30-1 on Betfair as they were going in.

    Me too
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  13. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Pogo probably shouldn't be anywhere near 20/1 at Chantilly (3.25) this afternoon. His Windsor race maybe fell apart a wee bit but he destroyed a fair field and my figures suggest he only needs to find a couple of pounds' improvement to have as good a chance as anything else and he strikes me as being on a fair curve as it is. The win certainly isn't out of the question but it's a stonking ew bet.
    Made the running and kept on well for third. I went in again at 33/1 when that price became available. Happy enough with the run.
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  14. #150
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    Well done with Pogo Mo, think he's held on for 3rd out there and will forgive you the cheeky after timing for the queen and glad you've picked up some compensation for yesterday
    Last edited by Danny; 19th July 2020 at 3:34 PM.
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  16. #151
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    You may as well roulette the outsiders at present. Form means nowt recently.

    That sack of **** that won the Steventon was a 6/1 shot on form. Stick Dettori on, 2/1. Wins. **** off.

  17. #152
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    In this 4.15 at the Curragh, I've taken Cerro Bayo at 66/1.

    Godolphin, Bolger and Manning. I don't care about her not showing much so far. How often does that kind of combo get to go of at that kind of price?
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  18. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In this 4.15 at the Curragh, I've taken Cerro Bayo at 66/1.

    Godolphin, Bolger and Manning. I don't care about her not showing much so far. How often does that kind of combo get to go of at that kind of price?
    Definitely outran her price and better than her finishing place. Might be better in a smaller field as she shied three times away from the whip of Lovelier's jockey as she tried to make her move.
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  19. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    You may as well roulette the outsiders at present. Form means nowt recently.

    That sack of **** that won the Steventon was a 6/1 shot on form. Stick Dettori on, 2/1. Wins. **** off.
    Felt much the same myself, then I analysed the Dettori winner.
    It's my problem what I didn't see, the money was more accurate.

  20. #155
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    I always forget to put my long shot fancies up come Saturday so I'll drop this one in even though it barely qualifies as Its only 20/1 with Bet365 atm. In the big 7f handicap at Ascot I could make a case that Shelir is decent Value. Mutamaassik is less than half that price and Shelir is 6lb better off on Ascot form with that one. Although that's probably not enough on its own to turn the tables it would put them in the same ballpark at least, and Mutamaasik would have to be forgiven a huge flop when favourite for a handicap at Newmarket nto where he simply never went a yard. Shelir is also better off with Cliffs of Capri. Again that one is nearly half the price and again finished slightly in front of Shelir last time at Ascot but is worse off at the weights and Cliffs of Capri seemed to be on the favoured part of the track and was only 3rd is his own group. Shelir is also younger and has had a lot less runs so a lot more likely, you'd hope at least to still be on an upward curve. Shelir has had one run in between but that was over a mile on what looked very soft ground at Haydock where he went very well travelled keenly and just got tired in the closing stages so the result is really not as bad as the finishing position suggests. The return to 7f on a stiff track should be in its favour. The draw is always an issue here and once again I'm on a low draw but there are quite a few of the fancied types drawn over that side this time and with the likes of Vale of Kent among them providing Frankie sends him in a straight line should give us a decent target to aim at. You may get bigger odds tomorrow to more places but sometimes these O'Meara horses get well punted. Either way although not one of my strongest selections he's as good a bet as anything in this sort of race at the current 20/1. O'Meara's biggest outsider Cold stare would also have a decent chance of framing on his Ascot form from last year but I think the former has more potential to actually win it.

    If I find any more big priced ones with half a squeak I'll try and pin them up as I go.

    Best of luck.
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  21. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I always forget to put my long shot fancies up come Saturday so I'll drop this one in even though it barely qualifies as Its only 20/1 with Bet365 atm. In the big 7f handicap at Ascot I could make a case that Shelir is decent Value. Mutamaassik is less than half that price and Shelir is 6lb better off on Ascot form with that one. Although that's probably not enough on its own to turn the tables it would put them in the same ballpark at least, and Mutamaasik would have to be forgiven a huge flop when favourite for a handicap at Newmarket nto where he simply never went a yard. Shelir is also better off with Cliffs of Capri. Again that one is nearly half the price and again finished slightly in front of Shelir last time at Ascot but is worse off at the weights and Cliffs of Capri seemed to be on the favoured part of the track and was only 3rd is his own group. Shelir is also younger and has had a lot less runs so a lot more likely, you'd hope at least to still be on an upward curve. Shelir has had one run in between but that was over a mile on what looked very soft ground at Haydock where he went very well travelled keenly and just got tired in the closing stages so the result is really not as bad as the finishing position suggests. The return to 7f on a stiff track should be in its favour. The draw is always an issue here and once again I'm on a low draw but there are quite a few of the fancied types drawn over that side this time and with the likes of Vale of Kent among them providing Frankie sends him in a straight line should give us a decent target to aim at. You may get bigger odds tomorrow to more places but sometimes these O'Meara horses get well punted. Either way although not one of my strongest selections he's as good a bet as anything in this sort of race at the current 20/1. O'Meara's biggest outsider Cold stare would also have a decent chance of framing on his Ascot form from last year but I think the former has more potential to actually win it.

    If I find any more big priced ones with half a squeak I'll try and pin them up as I go.

    Best of luck.
    Sorry Danny,but I've backed that as well.for all the same reasons as you.
    I will also do arbalet.
    Last edited by Outsider; 24th July 2020 at 1:41 PM.

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  23. #157
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    Good luck fellas. I am following Gin Palace as a rapid improver but wouldn't put anyone off your fancies.

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  25. #158
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I had a long look at Shelir as it was one I backed that day (might even have put it up on this thread) but can't really fancy it to beat the Sheikh Hamdan horse. Wouldn't put you off it, though, for the reasons stated.
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  27. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Good luck fellas. I am following Gin Palace as a rapid improver but wouldn't put anyone off your fancies.
    I'm with you Marb - two against two Probably be fighting it out for 2nd last!!

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  29. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I had a long look at Shelir as it was one I backed that day (might even have put it up on this thread) but can't really fancy it to beat the Sheikh Hamdan horse. Wouldn't put you off it, though, for the reasons stated.
    Which one there are 3 ? I take it you mean Mutamaasik ? Have you seen any explanation for the poor run last time out ? I've watched it and it more or less just looked like he didn't get the gap when he wanted it so he stopped trying and pulled it up. Very blatant if is was just not making any effort though.
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