Page 7 of 35 FirstFirst ... 2345678910111217 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 140 of 694

Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #121
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Found one.

    Nwm 2.25 Chica Bella 50/1 ew & 33/1 w/o Dandalla. Shame there are only two places going (none for the w/o bet at that price) and the favs look strong but CB has a time rating that puts her in the mix if it can be trusted.

    At least it will give me a wee interest in a race that doesn't otherwise grab me.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (10th July 2020)

  3. #122
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    At Market Rasen, Highly Prized (9/2) and my old pal San Benedeto (10/1) will pay 54/1 if both win as I hope.

    Highly Prized, remember, was still close up at the last in the Betfair when hampered right out of the race. A repeat of that promise would probably be good enough to win here.

    San Benedeto is better than a handicapper when they let him loose. If he's been trained for this he just needs to be close to his last win to be good enough.
    Pretty disappointing efforts, I have to say, especially San Benedeto who clearly didn't come here today to win otherwise it was a pretty amateurish bit of race-riding from Bryony Frost.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #123
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Batting on regardless...

    Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #124
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    155
    Thanks
    62
    Thanked 65 Times in 46 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Batting on regardless...

    Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.

    15:35 Newmarket

    Shine So Bright 33/1 is another I’m hoping the ground dries up for since his optimum conditions would be good or quicker. The forecast is looking as though it might be kind, so it could work out.

    He raced with plenty of his old zest at Epsom last week and, on his day, he can mix it at this level.

    Trainer

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to luckyme For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (10th July 2020)

  7. #125
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    410 Nm NO NONSENSE 50/1
    Finished 2nd to calyx last year.slow away in the wokingham but dropped 4lb and G.Mosse travels over from france.

  8. #126
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Two longshots today

    Although Equilateral hasn't really shone over 6f before, since he's been gelded his form over 5f has reached a new level. As I have it his 2nd behind Battash was his best effort to date. It might be viewed as he was picking up the pieces but he certainly out finished Liberty beach and Tis Marvellous the latter being a very strong stayer at a stiff 5f so at around 28/1 he's a fair old bet.


    The other one I've been very keen on since earlier in the week comes in 3.50 at Ascot Street Parade, I think he's still 33's in places and should be around that generally tomorrow. At the start of his career things were going well probably his best performance came when second to Wedding date from a mark of 101. Re opposes tomorrow as it goes I think he's 16lb better off for a length. Anyway after this run his form nosedived. He then had a breathing op and had a few spins on the All weather and although things didn't really work out for him there he posted a figure that looks like he's well on his way back and when doing so didn't have the best of luck in running. He then had a break and came back at Newmarket , slowly away, sitting behind a wall of horse looking like there is plenty of life back in him. He got dropped another 3lb to a mark of 92 and now Stuart Williams decides to deploy useful claimer Marco Ghianni to take another 5lb off. From watching the runs on the Alll weather he's crying out for a stiff 5f on a straight track run at a break neck pace and he certainly seems to be surrounded by it. I expect a big run however I struggle to see bar bricking up stall 20 what will be able to stop Jonah Jones who was probably the most eye catching runner you'd ever see lto and posted a decent figure in the process of being sandwiched between two horses and not knocked about either on his way to the finish. Our only hope is that there is a lot of pace drawn low and maybe that will isolate jonesy but even so he looks as good a thing as you get in a big handicap.


    Best of luck chaps.
    Last edited by Danny; 11th July 2020 at 1:01 AM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (11th July 2020)

  10. #127
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.
    Out to 80/1 with 4 places on offer. I've gone in again.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (11th July 2020)

  12. #128
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    The more I look at the July Cup the less enthusiastic I get about it so I've had a pop at Brando at 40/1. On his day he's probably as good as anything in this field bar the front two and he hasn't had a hard race so far this season. Track and ground should suit and he's got placed form in the race.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #129
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The more I look at the July Cup the less enthusiastic I get about it so I've had a pop at Brando at 40/1. On his day he's probably as good as anything in this field bar the front two and he hasn't had a hard race so far this season. Track and ground should suit and he's got placed form in the race.
    Gutted that he lost so much ground out of the stalls. Would probably have been second at worst.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #130
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    The Magnet Cup has long been one of my favourite big handicaps so I've put in a wee bit (make that a big bit) extra effort to look closely at tomorrow's renewal.

    I put up Pivoine earlier in the week after a cursory glance and in anticipation of a gamble which hasn't really materialised and backed it up with Baltic Baron at 20/1 as an attempt to steal a wee bit of value once I saw Paul Kealy was also putting it up.

    I've since looked much more closely at the race now that I have proper access to the RP site and, while I am not unhappy with those two bets, I plan to have two more. One doesn't qualify for this thread and it will be a hefty one to trump all the others I end up making. I'm just waiting for the best odds guarantees in the morning and maximum place offers.

    The other I've taken this evening does qualify for the thread. I'm not too fussed about not getting the BOG as I got it boosted to 56+/1 to six places. That's just too big for its form. Certain Lad.

    I have a couple of reservations, not least the inexperienced jockey but Channon seems to trust him so I only hope he is genuinely value for his 7lbs claim. Earlier this year in Dubai he was a close third in a £100k handicap off 104. Next time he took on Ghaiyyath, for whom he was obviously no match, in an even more valuable G3 but he finished in front of the 115-rated Desert Encounter on only 5lbs better than wfa. On his only run since, he wasn't really asked to be competitive behind Sky Defender at Epsom but met trouble in running near the rail anyway and didn't have a hard race. The high draw is another concern but I don't expect him to be competing for an early lead and if they go fast he might be able to slot into a possie closer to the rail and hope the leaders go too fast and slow up a bit late on. He's more of a 16/1 shot in my opinion but that still means it 1/16 that he won't win
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (17th July 2020), Danny (17th July 2020), Outsider (18th July 2020)

  16. #131
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    I found it hard going finding a long shot to get excited about this weekend mate but once again I thought this wasn't a bad shout at the price, I might have a few shekels on myself as a bit of cover.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (18th July 2020)

  18. #132
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    I like a couple of big priced ones tomorrow.
    CITRON MAJOR 410Y 25/1 and
    MASTER MATT 615c 20/1

  19. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    Danny (18th July 2020), Desert Orchid (18th July 2020)

  20. #133
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The Magnet Cup has long been one of my favourite big handicaps so I've put in a wee bit (make that a big bit) extra effort to look closely at tomorrow's renewal.

    I put up Pivoine earlier in the week after a cursory glance and in anticipation of a gamble which hasn't really materialised and backed it up with Baltic Baron at 20/1 as an attempt to steal a wee bit of value once I saw Paul Kealy was also putting it up.

    I've since looked much more closely at the race now that I have proper access to the RP site and, while I am not unhappy with those two bets, I plan to have two more. One doesn't qualify for this thread and it will be a hefty one to trump all the others I end up making. I'm just waiting for the best odds guarantees in the morning and maximum place offers.

    The other I've taken this evening does qualify for the thread. I'm not too fussed about not getting the BOG as I got it boosted to 56+/1 to six places. That's just too big for its form. Certain Lad.

    I have a couple of reservations, not least the inexperienced jockey but Channon seems to trust him so I only hope he is genuinely value for his 7lbs claim. Earlier this year in Dubai he was a close third in a £100k handicap off 104. Next time he took on Ghaiyyath, for whom he was obviously no match, in an even more valuable G3 but he finished in front of the 115-rated Desert Encounter on only 5lbs better than wfa. On his only run since, he wasn't really asked to be competitive behind Sky Defender at Epsom but met trouble in running near the rail anyway and didn't have a hard race. The high draw is another concern but I don't expect him to be competing for an early lead and if they go fast he might be able to slot into a possie closer to the rail and hope the leaders go too fast and slow up a bit late on. He's more of a 16/1 shot in my opinion but that still means it 1/16 that he won't win
    I’ve added Certain Lad to my bet in this. The case you make is a good one.

    The one I’ve backed is Afaak at 25/1. 5th last year and 3lbs better off.

  21. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Maruco For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (18th July 2020), Outsider (18th July 2020)

  22. #134
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This one will probably raise some eyebrows...

    In the Hardwicke I managed to get 100/1 Eagles By Day and I'm hopeful of a place at least. This time last year he was less than five lengths behind Japan in the King Edward, a big step forward on his Derby trial form, in softish ground. He bombed on his only subsequent start three weeks later at the July Meeting but that was on fast ground, might have come too soon and he reportedly burst a blood vessel. The worst case scenario is that he had a valid excuse for a poor run. He's obviously got a long absence to overcome but Michael Bell is no mug and Tudhope is an interesting booking.
    Hope some of you kept the faith first time up for O'Meara.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #135
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Couldn't let Wait Forever go unbacked at 150/1 in the Joshn Smith. Shouldn't be that price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #136
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    South Lanarkshire
    Posts
    5,523
    Thanks
    306
    Thanked 397 Times in 357 Posts
    Good run from certain day.

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to simmo For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (18th July 2020)

  26. #137
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    What a cracking run from certain lad.DO. well found.

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (18th July 2020)

  28. #138
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Bugger!!! I thought he had it until I notice the other one flying late. Great run for the money.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  29. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Tout Seul (18th July 2020)

  30. #139
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Great shout on Certain Lad, DO. Well done.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th July 2020 at 3:05 PM.

  31. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (18th July 2020)

  32. #140
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Top stuff as always D.O.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •