The 2020 Longshot Thread

[Danny]

Well done guys!
I hit the frame with Spanish City who I also had in an ew double with ChiefofChiefs in the first so it paid a bit.

Nice double there Jinny.

[Outsider]

Thanks all,what a result.ive had a fantastic week.
The S.P was a joke though.

Well done Des as well.

I dont know if Sir Maximillion not running was a good or bad thing as I did a double.

[reet hard]

Cracking call,Ouesider.

[Colin Phillips]

Some great calls on this thread, well done one and all!

[Outsider]

Northumberland plate on sat.

COSMELLI 20/1 bet365.

My follower will remember me putting this up at 66/1 to win the consolation race after running a fine race the year before to finish 8th at 100/1 btn under 3L.off 99.
They got its weight down to a mark of 94 but failed to get in so they took the consolation race.
On saturday he again runs in the plate off a mark of 88 plus a good 5lb claimer on board.
He seems to be running better than ever this year.

Those are my reasons for backing him again.

[Desert Orchid]

I haven't looked at the field yet but having also backed it as above it will almost certainly be on my radar again. Good luck, Outsider.

[Desert Orchid]

I've now had a quick dekko at the field and dipped a toe in the market. Not many bookies are offering odds right now and I wonder if they'll apply ante-post rules on non-runners even though the final declarations are known.

So with that in mind, I've had a nibble at Hiroshima at 50/1. He won first time up on the AW last year then took on AVD in the Lingfield Derby Trial (beaten just over 10 lengths, 50/1) before running in the Derby (100/1) itself in which he was beaten 'only' just over 11 lengths. He went up to 93 for that but disappointed in both his subsequent runs. He's back down to 87 here and, who knows, could have improved into his 4yo season. His stamina is not assured, never having been tried beyond 13½ furlongs (heavy), but he's by Nathaniel so he might stay. Jimmy Quinn at 8-3 looks a serious jockey booking and the stable seems in reasonable form.

He might win but is more likely to bomb...

[Marb]

I fancy Verhoyen to run well at the Curragh in the big handicap tomorrow (6.15)

He improved loads last season. All his best form is at this track. He likes big fields because he won two top handicaps last season in these circumstances. On one of those occasions he beat one of the joint favorite's Ice Cold In Alex.

While that horse will be a few pounds better off, having had a recent pipe opener over an inadaquate trip Verhoyen can run to his very best again plus improve a bit more. He has to prove he can win over 7F but that slight doubt is mitigated by his generous price of 20/1.

[Desert Orchid]

So with that in mind, I've had a nibble at Hiroshima at 50/1. He won first time up on the AW last year then took on AVD in the Lingfield Derby Trial (beaten just over 10 lengths, 50/1) before running in the Derby (100/1) itself in which he was beaten 'only' just over 11 lengths. He went up to 93 for that but disappointed in both his subsequent runs. He's back down to 87 here and, who knows, could have improved into his 4yo season. His stamina is not assured, never having been tried beyond 13½ furlongs (heavy), but he's by Nathaniel so he might stay. Jimmy Quinn at 8-3 looks a serious jockey booking and the stable seems in reasonable form.

I've gone in again at 66/1.

I've also had a pop at Magic Circle at 28/1 to six places. This one was running in races like the Ascot Gold Cup and Melbourne Cup the season before last after going up to 116 for winning the Henry II after hacking up in the Chester Cup. He rather lost his way after that but maybe the change of stable to Fahey will gee him up a bit and he's come down to 108, which makes him the class horse in the race anyway. He's obviously 28/1 for a reason but the old Magic Circle would be a single-figure price off 108.

[Desert Orchid]

Hiroshima ran very well for about 13f. He was probably last to come off the bridle and at that point I was very hopeful but he found absolutely nothing and probably didn't stay. I'm not sure he'll be fast enough for a 12f h'cap, certainly not at this kind of level but maybe a Class 3 or 4 back at Lingfield or Epsom.

Magic Circle, as far as I could see, was never put into the race and might be targeting something like the Ebor. He'll come down again for this and could end up getting into the race at York off somewhere around 100. I would be interested him then.

[Outsider]

Northumberland plate on sat.

COSMELLI 20/1 bet365.

My follower will remember me putting this up at 66/1 to win the consolation race after running a fine race the year before to finish 8th at 100/1 btn under 3L.off 99.
They got its weight down to a mark of 94 but failed to get in so they took the consolation race.
On saturday he again runs in the plate off a mark of 88 plus a good 5lb claimer on board.
He seems to be running better than ever this year.

Those are my reasons for backing him again.

Good run for my money.happy enough.

[viking]

Irish Derby
Gold Maze 20/1 4 places with Paddy Power
Jessie’s horses going well and this one may be suited by the extra 2f


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[Desert Orchid]

Good run for my money.happy enough.

Yes, I was willing him on in the last couple of furlongs. Good run.

[Marb]

True Self (Curragh 4.45) is rated 110 which is on a par with Fleeting and therefore overpriced at 20/1 in the Pretty Polly today. This seven year old mare trained by Willie Mullins has a good record after an absence both jumps and flat. She'll appreciate the drop in trip to 10F stepping up in class, and if Magical does have an off day this mare can upset the apple cart at a big price.

[Desert Orchid]

In this 4.15 at the Curragh, Gustavus Weston was 5/1 in the forecast but available at 28/1. I'm happy to pay small money to find out if it's not off.

[Desert Orchid]

Gustavus Weston threatened briefly two out before ultimately being just not good enough but it was a fun run at a nice price to small stakes.

I have two tracker alerts for today. One is a bit short so not putting it up as a single and the other doesn't qualify for the thread but together the double comes to 21/1.

Yarmouth 2.30 Blonde Warrior 7/1
Windsor 4.50 Chichester 7/4

As ever, as long as they're trying that's all I ask.

[Desert Orchid]

As ever, as long as they're trying that's all I ask.

Well, Blonde Warrior wasn't trying an inch. Looked to be the start of a plot for something further down the line. Moore never asked it a question at any time. Looked bad and I wonder if the stewards had a word.

[Desert Orchid]

I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.

[wilsonl]

Pasted from the Derby thread

Couldn’t resist an e/w poke on Worthily at 44.82/1 4 places in an open year. Has a mountain to climb from his debut win but looked really good there, is guaranteed to stay and stay well and has a nice draw.

[Danny]

I've had to have a few quid early on one for Saturday It's not something I really like doing but last week I saw a couple midweek, and the prices were destroyed by the time I thought about having a bet on them. I've only just started to get my head back in the game so anything I put up obviously to be taken with a pinch of salt but here goes.

Data Protection 25/1 generally 5 places with some firms Goes in the 3.00 at Epsom on Saturday and although his chance isn't blindingly obvious and the favourite is lobbed in if reproducing his Newmarket form however I think it's still worth taking a chance on DP. Two decent runs last summer at this course over a mile. His win is worth a watch on the replays, bowling along having his own way in front somehow managed to give away the rail and and let Rampant lion burst through and look like he was home and hosed and although Data protection was caught flat footed he responded well to pressure and battled back to win and to my eye it looked like like he'd appreciate the step up in trip. Although on this occasion he was quite a bit lower in the handicap than he will be on Saturday he progressed nicely throughout the season. At least the 2 decent performances at Epsom would point to him being well suited by the track at least.

He won a 7 runner silver Cambridgeshire (wtf happened to that race) in a figure that suggest he's capable of winning off his new mark even, and he wasn't fully extended that day he was ridden out for sure but having seen how well he responded to pressure at Epsom I feel sure there was a bit more in the tank. In fairness he did have his own way in front that day and bagged the rail towards the finish so it might be a bit naughty to take the form at face value but the figures never lie so they say.

The final piece of evidence that he still might be worth a crack comes at his first real attempt at 10f at Windsor unfortunately this came on heavy ground and despite leading them a merry dance and committing early he did eventually after a good battle give way in the final 100 yards or so and in fairness one of those who collared him was Rajinsky who ran in the Plate last week and he went on from Windsor to win again over further so no surprise really that he ground him down given the conditions that day. Front 3 had pulled well clear also. Data was off a mark 83 that day and I feel sure that if he'd had better ground he'd have dotted up. He's off 81 after a couple of average runs to kick off this campaign back over a mile so you'd have to be hopeful back at 10F off a reasonable mark on a track he likes with a decent draw that he can be in the mix.

The two main negatives would be that I usually like a front runner at Epsom because it always tends to get messy in behind but there are a few including Desert Icon who like to do it from the front so it could turn into a tear up up front and they may cut each others throats. I'm hoping with a decent draw he hasn't got to use too much fuel getting there early though. Being a prominent runner and I'm sure he will see the trip out well so at the very least he should be able to hang on for a place. The only other concern is that his form wasn't up to much last season up until the middle of July and he seemed to just get better and progress through the Autumn. You sometimes get those types that are better at the back end of the season so if he doesn't put his best foot forward on Saturday I'm sure he'll pick a couple of 10f races up at some point and might be worth putting in the notebooks. Other than that he's as good a 25/1 poke as you'll find. I've had a half stake on early and if the price holds up or gets bigger on the day I'll fill him in.


Best of luck chaps.