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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #541
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Still 22/1 available with Paddy Power. Finding myse drawn to this one after his slightly unlucky run at Exeter for which he’s been dropped 4lb with his rider claiming another 7lb
    His best form is when up with the pace. Has been dropped out early lately. I suppose we'll know tomorrow before they get to Fence 1!
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  2. #542
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    However, I really like Endlessly at 25/1. Progressive on soft ground, he wasn't so good on quicker on his reappearance, and most of Olly Murphy's have looked to be behind and need the run. However he was a decent horse on the flat having improved significantly for a wind op and a move to Murphy. He's since had four runs over hurdles looking very progressive in two of them before his low key seasonal debut. He steps up 3 furlong to 2m3f which you'd expect to suit having won over 1m6f twice on the flat after his switch of stables.
    I've taken 28/1 Maruco. I have him top rated among the second-season novices in the race after Our Power and likely to be much improved this time round.

    I might have missed him if I hadn't remembered somebody putting him up!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st November 2020 at 11:56 AM.
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  3. #543
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    Marracudja now 14/1 tops and 11s in some places. Hopes rising...
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  4. #544
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    Have had a pop at Pour Joie (33/1 - Bet365) in Div 2 of the Huntindon maiden hurdle.

    Good enough to win a modest bumper in early 2019, he’s hasn’t been on the track for a year (poor efforts on the Flat), but Ian Williams can place them to good effect, and interesting he starts this one off over hurdles in the better of the two maidens on offer.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Also at Huntington, Sovereign Duke 1.58 20/1Bet365
    Was 6/4 fav in first hurdle race and coming to win when fell ( winner now 130) 2 easy runs to get handicapped. It was 96 on the flat and it’s a women’s race live on tv with the best jock on board

  6. #546
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    Really didn’t want to put this up, but I can’t help myself.

    Surely Kalashnikov is worth a punt at 33s in the 2.25. Clearly a troubled horse, but a Supreme second, and one of the most hyped horses of the last couple of years.

    It’s one almighty drift out to 33s, but I can’t help myself each way.

  7. #547
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    From earlier in the thread:
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think someone might have mentioned this one elsewhere. I'm not trying to steal their thunder, just acknowledging that they've already mentioned it.

    In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken two more nibbles at long odds in the race.

    Lamanver Pippin 50/1 5pl - assuming TOTG runs LP will be 7lbs 'wrong', which might be offset at least partially by a good claimer, and I'm not convinced he'll even run, let alone stay the trip. He weakened badly late on in the NH Chase but is currently top-rated on RPRs (from his mark) and, as a second-season novice could improve considerably. Tizzard tends not to send donkeys for this race so if he makes the cut he might not be 50/1. They might campaign him to pick up a penalty as it would only be 4lbs so wouldn't affect his weight, in which case his price would probably contract anyway. It's worth some fun money early doors.

    Potterman 40/1 5pl - this is Alan King's only entry for the race and is already in good form. Technically he is another second-season chaser but has already shown improved form, winning really nicely at Market Rasen and duly raised. However, this time last year, he was a 143-rated novice taking on the 151-rated Vinndication in an open £100k handicap chase at Ascot, beaten only five lengths. His rating subsequently came down and his new mark following his summer win leaves him a pound below that so, arguably, he might still have second-season improvement in him. It's possible the Scottish National is the target, as the trainer ran Dingo Dollar (twice) in this en route to its main objective at Ayr . But he also won this with that good grey Smad Place. Again, I have no idea if the plan is to run but he only needs six to come out to make the cut an he's near the top on RPRs.

    (A wee reminder or those who don't use the facility - if you bring up the card at the RP site and click on the top of a column it will sort them for you.)

    Black Op is now 10/1 tops and Potterman 20s so I can't say I've any regrets so far. They might come on Monday if one or both isn't declared.

    I have to say I was quite taken by the way Beware The Bear looked against Santini in the public gallop at Newbury the other day but can leave him for now as he'll maybe want the ground to dry out a bit.

    However, I have taken another longshot, again with no idea whether it will be declared on Monday but I suspect once people start focusing on the race it will contract.

    Secret Investor 20/1 - This is the one that hammered Potterman before the latter went on to run so well the next time and went up 5lbs, which he doesn't have to carry in this race. Secret Investor went up for that but has, in the light of Potterman's performance, been raised another three pounds which he won't need to carry. Once punters realise he's 3lbs well in they won't let him go off at 20/1.

    Lamanver Pippin went up 4lbs for his Cheltenham run but is 4lbs out of the handicap. I'm still not convinced he'll run and a few places are still going 50s. Again, we'll know more on Monday.

    From a value perspective, though, I can't say I'm unhappy with any of those bets.

    Edit
    PS - FWIW, Lamanver Pippin and Potterman are currently the top two on RPRs. Yala Enki shares second top but I can see Secret Investor running in preference to him. Black Op isn't far off the top either.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd November 2020 at 2:36 AM.
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  9. #548
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    I've gone in again on Potterman at 20/1 for the Hennessy.

    I'll be very surprised if his price doesn't halve by Saturday, especially if weather stays relatively dry but no way on God's good earth is this a 20/1 shot.

    Even trained by (fuc)King Useless.
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  10. #549
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    I've now done my ratings for the Ladbrokes Trophy ("Hennessy" to me) and have backed yet another longshot but I reckon this one will be my nomination to win the race come the weekend: Ardlethen 33/1.

    In a TV interview about a year ago, Skelton was asked for one horse to keep an eye on. This is the one he nominated, saying he really liked it.

    It's chance might not be obvious (hence the price) but it was a 140 hurdler two seasons ago, so should have been a 150 novice chaser last season and a 160 chaser into this, his second season. He gets to race off 138.

    First time up last season he beat Lisnagar Oscar, rated 145 when running in the 2019 Albert Bartlett. After not really taking to fences the latter came back and won the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. Ardlethen then took on the 164-rated Sam Spinner at Wetherby but couldn't match him on the run-in after challenging strongly at the last.

    I suspect that might have been when the plan for this race was hatched.

    He was slightly disappointing behind Danny Whizzbang in the good 3m novice chase at this meeting and is now 7lbs better off.

    He was then hampered in running and lost a shoe at Warwick, for which he meets Two For Gold on 10lbs better terms.

    He returned to Wetherby for the Towton and ran a good second to Newtide (which I backed in a good race last weekend because I have a good figure for it) but then disappointed in the Kim Muir, but that might have been part of the plan to get his mark down again.

    He reappeared over 2½ miles at Carlisle behind Imperial Aura but wasn't really asked any serious questions, at the same time showing something like his better novice form, and we know what Imperial Aura did on Saturday. In the same race were Sam Brown (with whom he's 14lbs better off) and Black Op (12lbs) and his form works out at 14lbs below Imperial Aura, which would put the latter in this off 152 compared with the 157 he was rated on Saturday and for which he emerged with an RPR of 167.

    He might just be an unreliable woof-woof but Skelton only had two in the race before today's declaration stage and he's left this one in.

    I wouldn't be surprised if he won and went up enough to make the cut for the Grand National in which he might still be interesting.

    Anyway, at 33/1 I can afford to pay to find out.
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    I like your thinking on ardlethen.(I have a plan)..

    I dont know really if LE BAGUE AU ROI will stay this far but off 145 and 33/1 boosted to 36.75 I will take a chance.
    If you go back far enough,2018 kauto Nov chase,he beat topofthegame and santini.
    Last time he jumped a lot better but i admit he has something to find with vindication and aye right.
    I'm hoping R.Johnson might be back on it.

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    The only mares ever to hold their form for any great length of time are Quevega and Catherine Deneuve (one for the snappers to Google there).

    La Bague just looks like she’s gone at the game to me, Outsider.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  15. #552
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    Yes I'd agree. She'll travel as sweet as a nut looking like the winner for two and three quarter miles and then fade out of contention as soon as any pressure is applied.

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  17. #553
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In Friday's Long Distance Hurdle - Vision Des Flos 40/1

    This race is all about Paisley Park. That one blip in his form figures would normally be the kind of thing it would pay to overlook but when they talk about heart issues it makes you think twice, especially at around 2/1.

    I’d fancy Thyme Hill to find 10lbs on his novice form but that might only get him into third place before you take RJ into account.

    McFabulous is another second-season novice but he has already found 10lbs and I’m not sure he can find another ten.

    I really should leave the race alone but have taken 40/1 Vision Des Flos because there’s a fair chance APS will be campaigning for something like the Pertemps, Lisnagar Oscar might be over-rated, or Paisley Park himself under-performs.

    At Aintree last season, VDF was a half-length third to Top Notch and Roksana, trying to give them 8lbs and 7lbs respectively. Top Notch had previously been rated 157 and Roksana was rated 152 when running in the Mares’ Hurdle at the festival and VDF gets 6lbs off the better horses in this race. Maybe they're accepting he isn't going to be that great a jumper of fences and are taking him back to the smaller obstacles as a result.

    I don't think he should be any more than about 12/1.
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    When I looked at the entries for the Hennessey the other day I'm sure BALLYOPTIC wasnt amongst them.
    I thought I'd lost my money(prob still will) but now hes drifted to 50s so I've gone in again.
    D.O says he thinks skelton has planned this and I tend to think like that so I followed but I also think NTD is the same.he gave Ballyoptic half a race last time and then pulled it up and STD had said the horse felt good at home.he did a similar thing 2/3 years ago with his scottish national runner.never tried and was pulled up 3 out and then finished 3rd in SN at 50/1 funnily enough with Zac Baker riding.
    So I'm hoping for a decent run at a big price.

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  20. #555
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    Newbury 3.35 The Cashel Man 20/1 - I'm surprised this one has drifted enough to qualify as I backed it at something like 14/1 the other night in anticipation of a gamble so I'm slightly concerned that it's going in the other direction in the market and might do the same on the track.

    However, he was a close second here in December in the Challow to Thyme Hill, no less, at level weights, 18L clear of the third. Would Thyme Hill be 20/1 in this race off 145?

    Obviously a couple of moderate recent runs require forgiving but maybe those were to get his mark back down to today's 143.

    I was happy to take shorter the other evening and happy to take longer this morning.
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  21. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In Friday's Long Distance Hurdle - Vision Des Flos 40/1

    This race is all about Paisley Park. That one blip in his form figures would normally be the kind of thing it would pay to overlook but when they talk about heart issues it makes you think twice, especially at around 2/1.

    I’d fancy Thyme Hill to find 10lbs on his novice form but that might only get him into third place before you take RJ into account.

    McFabulous is another second-season novice but he has already found 10lbs and I’m not sure he can find another ten.

    I really should leave the race alone but have taken 40/1 Vision Des Flos because there’s a fair chance APS will be campaigning for something like the Pertemps, Lisnagar Oscar might be over-rated, or Paisley Park himself under-performs.

    At Aintree last season, VDF was a half-length third to Top Notch and Roksana, trying to give them 8lbs and 7lbs respectively. Top Notch had previously been rated 157 and Roksana was rated 152 when running in the Mares’ Hurdle at the festival and VDF gets 6lbs off the better horses in this race. Maybe they're accepting he isn't going to be that great a jumper of fences and are taking him back to the smaller obstacles as a result.

    I don't think he should be any more than about 12/1.
    Out to 66/1 this morning so I've gone in again.

    Fortune favours and all that...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Newbury 3.35 The Cashel Man 20/1 - I'm surprised this one has drifted enough to qualify as I backed it at something like 14/1 the other night in anticipation of a gamble so I'm slightly concerned that it's going in the other direction in the market and might do the same on the track.

    However, he was a close second here in December in the Challow to Thyme Hill, no less, at level weights, 18L clear of the third. Would Thyme Hill be 20/1 in this race off 145?

    Obviously a couple of moderate recent runs require forgiving but maybe those were to get his mark back down to today's 143.

    I was happy to take shorter the other evening and happy to take longer this morning.


    40/1 now?
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  23. #558
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    Final longshot (maybe ) for the Ladbrokes Trophy - The Hollow Ginge 100/1, 6 places - he was an improving novice last season, going up to 144 for a tidy win at Leicester before finding the NH Chase a bit much. He didn't get past the first at Kelso on his reappearance but is entitled to make second-season improvement in due course. It's obviously a concern that Sam T-D goes to Bangor for a string of favourites but that doesn't mean 100/1 isn't value. A top-six finish is by no means out of the question.
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    Newbury 2.25 Millers Bank 33/1 & 20/1 w/out Marie's Rock - He was on a steep curve last season but disappointed on his return. He’s since had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. As a second-season novice he can reasonably be expected to improve again.
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  25. #560
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Final longshot (maybe ) for the Ladbrokes Trophy - The Hollow Ginge 100/1, 6 places - he was an improving novice last season, going up to 144 for a tidy win at Leicester before finding the NH Chase a bit much. He didn't get past the first at Kelso on his reappearance but is entitled to make second-season improvement in due course. It's obviously a concern that Sam T-D goes to Bangor for a string of favourites but that doesn't mean 100/1 isn't value. A top-six finish is by no means out of the question.
    That was a very good shout Maurice.

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