The 2020 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

I reckon you could have found a better 25/1 shot to come out of hibernation, DO.

I'd need to study the form for that, GH, and would need to know the definite target for pretty much anything else. At least with BD'A we know his level and target. If he gets there he won't be 25/1. If he doesn't, the price is irrelevant.

[Grasshopper]

Hi guys: I’ve finally been able to re register after being in the wilderness for several weeks. I, too fancied Strong Glance for the Greatwood but annoyingly didn’t back The Shunter that was 5th on my ratings list. Tegretek was 2nd but his price was rubbish and although I like to back horses with claimers on board I read that 7lb claimers had a bad record in the race. I need Cairnshill to win as I’m now down to 1penny in my betting account and don’t want to top it up! I’ve got some money in a Corals account that I can play with but they don’t let me have best odds on it so I stopped using them.

Welcome back, Moe.

[Maruco]

The two best 'value' bets for me in the Champion Hurdle are Saldier at 25/1 and Maries Rock at 50/1, both with cashout.

Mullins loves Saldier, and he'll start of in the Morgiana against Honeysuckle, and Maries Rock is a bang two miler so I suspect she'll end up in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. They rate her just as highly as they did Epatante at the same stage. She'll reappear in the Gerry Fielden just as Epatante sdid last year, or deputise for Epatante in the Fighting Fifth if Epatante doesn't go for any reason.

I'd want to see Buveur D'air entered up before I'd back him for my book, but don't disagree with the reasoning.

[Grasshopper]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

[Desert Orchid]

Pretty sure I backed that nag a couple of times in decent hcap hurdles back in the day. Maybe worth some sickness insurance.

[Maruco]

So I don't forget, I added Beware the Bear at 28/1 with a boost for the Hennessy. He's not the usual profile for the race, but I'm not convinced it's a particularly good renewal.

Anyway the Festival Chase on Day 1 at the Festival is often a good guide to horses that run well in this, The Conditional and Vinndication both fitting the bill frm last year, but BtB had to miss the Festival last year, but his previous two runs at the Festival are a good indication of his ability compared to both The Conditional and Vinndication. If you look at how much each have gone up compared to their runs in the same race at the Festival BtB would be better off with both if taken literally.

BtB has won at Newbury before showing a liking for the course, and was 4th in this two years ago despite uncharacteristically jumping poorly when blundering his was round. He also did a very favourable bit of work alongside Santini at the course earlier in the week.

He's not my main bet, but I see him as a very good each way bet with 5 places available, and he's freely available at 25/1 or 28's with the boost, which is much too big.

[Double J]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

How’s your luck?

[Grasshopper]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

This is why we sometimes take chances on massive outers in novice chases.

Pishing myself laughing here.

[Double J]

This is why we take chances on massive outers in novice chases.

Pishing myself laughing here.

I put £1 e/W on cause of this call at 200/1 on 365. I owe you one. Some luck though haha

[moe]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.I don’t know what to say. I forgot I’d followed you with this one. Hope the horse that came down at the last is ok though. Big thank you. I’ve got some pennies to play with now!

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

[moe]

Oops: still getting to grips with this iPad. Thanks grass!!

[Marb]

Well done to all.

All's well than ends well.

[tiggers1972]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

I reckon you've got a rabbits foot wedged up your jacksy Nick!

[Desert Orchid]

Why couldn't the winner have round round the last fuckin fence???!!

Brilliant shout, Grasshopper!

[Grasshopper]

Why couldn't the winner have round round the last fuckin fence???!!

Brilliant shout, Grasshopper!

Better to be lucky than good, DO.

PS. Still laughing.

[Maruco]

I've just read this thread and watched the race. Brilliant tipping!!!

[Maruco]

Olly Murphy's form has been a concern, so I was hesitant to put this one up. In the 1.50 at Haydock the progressive Kid Commando 9/2 win is the obvious bet, and I may well back him, and I like Umbrigado 10/1 each way back in trip with a useful 7lbs off and with some additional relief from the handicapper after being beaten over an unsuitable staying trip at Haydock in the Stayers handicap hurdle at this fixture last year, and a fair enough race in the Martin Pipe at the Festival. I think he could still be nicely ahead of the handicapper over the trip. Plus there are others unexposed and likely to have been hiding under a bushel.

However, I really like Endlessly at 25/1. Progressive on soft ground, he wasn't so good on quicker on his reappearance, and most of Olly Murphy's have looked to be behind and need the run. However he was a decent horse on the flat having improved significantly for a wind op and a move to Murphy. He's since had four runs over hurdles looking very progressive in two of them before his low key seasonal debut. He steps up 3 furlong to 2m3f which you'd expect to suit having won over 1m6f twice on the flat after his switch of stables.

As I said you need to take the Olly Murphy form into account, and it's just possible he completely flops, but I like the booking of Paddy Brennan who rides handicap hurdles at Haydock well, and 25/1 each way s a much better price than I expected for a horse that I'd highlighted in my tracker for a race exactly like this on soft ground.

[Maruco]

Incidentally I'd be fairly certain that Desert Orchid will have Minella Charmer on his radar for this at 33/1?!

[Desert Orchid]

Incidentally I'd be fairly certain that Desert Orchid will have Minella Charmer on his radar for this at 33/1?!

[viking]

Saturday Ascot - Marracudja 25/1 - I planned to put this up on the day as a sickness insurance bet but I see Paul Kealy has gone and tipped it so the price will almost certainly contract. Hasn't been off an inch so far and is stupidly well handicapped on his best form, on my ratings.

Still 22/1 available with Paddy Power. Finding myse drawn to this one after his slightly unlucky run at Exeter for which he’s been dropped 4lb with his rider claiming another 7lb


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