GLENCADAM GLORY Nov hcap .took 33s last night.i think DO put this up for the ebor.with ellie mcCain claiming 7lb it seems to have a chance.
Just looked and its 66/1 now.i must be losing it.
GLENCADAM GLORY Nov hcap .took 33s last night.i think DO put this up for the ebor.with ellie mcCain claiming 7lb it seems to have a chance.
Just looked and its 66/1 now.i must be losing it.
Last edited by Outsider; 7th November 2020 at 11:44 AM.
Outsider (7th November 2020)
Every chance he is simply in decline, but I’m taking a small chance on Fagan (22/1 generally) in the Aintree Pertemps qualifier today.
Smart enough at one time to have finished second to Unowhatimeanharry in a Bartlett (granted, it was a few years ago), he somewhat lost his way in a novice chase campaign, and then had almost two years on the sidelines, before re-appearing for Alex Hales in a Haydock Pertemps qualifier in February this year (running with some credit before weakening; beaten around 20L behind Welsh Saint).
His only subsequent outing last season was when down the field in the Coral Cup, over a trip that was essentially far too sort for this thorough stayer.
Given his age and problems, he isn’t one for having the mortgage on, but the handicapper has given him a chance today off 134, and the yard continues to go well.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 7th November 2020 at 12:06 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Desert Orchid (7th November 2020)
I've been waiting for another to drift and it has. Kitty's Light 20/1.
I don't recall a four-year-old ever running in this race let alone winning it but this one intrigued me when I checked the race out yesterday.
Its win a couple of weeks ago earned it quite a hike so it isn't out of the handicap and its claimer has been doing well for himself. There's absolutely no way of knowing if it will continue with another steep rise in performance or bounce or whatever but it strikes me as being very well bred for a NH horse (Nathaniel/Refuse To Bend) and at the price I can afford to pay a small price to find out.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Desert Orchid (7th November 2020)
I think the pace meant it was slightly out of its comfort zone. Had that horse not fallen at the second last and caused him to sidestep quite violently, I think he would have been very close. Cracking run by a 4yo and good persevering ride by young Jack Tudor.
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
I'm more inclined to put it down to inexperience at this level for its age but he covered the two bets.
Erick Le Rouge ran well but put in an extra stride at too many fences. He's better than the bare form and I'd love to see if Bryony Frost could get a tune out of him.
Very pleased that Potterman ran so well with the Hennessy longshot bet in mind. I can see his price for that halving on the back of this run as he is pretty much a winner without a penalty as he'll probably go up 4 or 5lbs for today.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I'm still not sure Potterman will go for the Ladbrokes Chase but most bookies cut it after yesterday's good run. However, a couple didn't so I've gone in again at 40/1. As I mentioned yesterday, I reckon he'll go up 4 or 5lbs and if he does turn up it will become common knowledge that he's officially well in. He really shouldn't be any more than about 12/1. In a lesser race he'd be 5/2 if he was officially 5lbs well in.
He has three weeks to get over yesterday's exertions. That should be plenty of time. Yesterday suggested he has improved again. If he improves another couple of pounds by the end of the month he has to have a serious chance.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (8th November 2020)
In Saturday's big hcap chase at Cheltenham (whatever it's now called) I've taken 50/1 Kauto Riko.
I was intending to hold on until the final decs but I see it has gone blue this morning in a number of places so I thought I'd better get in just in case it collapses (the price, but knowing my luck probably the horse).
He has a bit of good novice form against Top Notch which would put the latter in this race off 147. I know it doesn't really work that way but it looks like maybe the handicapper has over-reacted to a couple of modest runs and he's lightly enough raced to maybe have a smidgen of improvement despite being older than ideal.
You never know...
Illegitimi non carborundum
Nice to get something right occasionally...
Potterman raised 5lbs for that effort so when people realise he's that much well in officially they won't let him go off - assuming he goes there - at 40/1 or anything near it.
Edit - one bookie (Betfred) still going 40s so I've taken another bite. This isn't to say I think it will/should win, just that it shouldn't be anywhere near 40/1.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th November 2020 at 12:31 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Two for this thread for the Greatwood:
Sir Psycho fits a little trend of mine that I watch out for the race and is 25/1, and Countister 20/1 must be a seriously well handicapped horse if the brakes are off.
It'll be interesting to see what path they take with Secret Investor now, having beaten Potterman 7 lengths giving him 11lb in weight the last day.
He's rated 162 now, and a 20/1 chance for the Ladbrokes Trophy.
I've put him in a couple of my ten to follow lists just in case he turns up in the Welsh National, which is a race Paul Nicholls has won twice before.
Last edited by Marb; 10th November 2020 at 2:06 PM.
Secret Investor and Potterman both need top of the ground though.................you may get that for the Hennessey, but I'd say the chances of getting that for the Welsh National is pretty much zero.
Last edited by tiggers1972; 10th November 2020 at 2:29 PM.
Greatwood Hurdle Cormier 20/1
Aye point taken, Darren. That could be the biggest problem. He's only ran on it twice though, you never know, the miracle might happen and it might come up gd-st. Fingers crossed.
He might even run well in the Hennessy yet, who knows.
Last edited by Marb; 10th November 2020 at 2:33 PM.
Engaged in the conditionals' race on Saturday. Wouldn't pick up a penalty for it so no idea if it's prepping or trying and I now see the trainer is talking about it more as a Welsh National type.
But at least today he went blue on the exchange for the Hennessy ahead of this so I'm hopeful that Newbury remains under serious consideration regardless of whether he wins on Saturday.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (12th November 2020)
Cheltenham 13:15 - Presenting Yeats
Looks like the Pipe horse is a warm order for this (my instinctive reaction is to always oppose such types from this yard) but I have had a small each-way tilt at Milton Harris's rag. A bumper winner over the summer, he's been held-up (and getting run off his feet) over the minimum trip in his four hurdle runs to-date, and it's interesting - to me, at any rate - that he is now upped significantly in trip on his first handicap outing. 25/1 is freely available, and I've played-up a few kopeks in the win market at 75.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 13th November 2020 at 12:57 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018