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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #461
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Play the part 225P 100/1 is worth 50p ew.finished 14L behind Dreal deal and is 26lb better off and is 8/13 fav for this.
    Good spot ,4 places @ 100/1 with Skybet too

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  3. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Play the part 225P 100/1 is worth 50p ew.finished 14L behind Dreal deal and is 26lb better off and is 8/13 fav for this.
    Has it finished yet?😰

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    I backed mutamadel 255nm last night at 14s and there are 3 NRs and a 35p rule4 and so I cashed out and reinvested as its drifted to 25/1

  5. #464
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It's a very quiet day for me.

    I can't dig into the form in the way I'd like to, which is usually how I arrive at weird and usually-not-so-wonderful selections at big prices.

    I fancy just two horses strongly today and the double pays 21/1: Capeland (3/1) and Whatmore (9/2). On my figures the former is a G2/G1 horse in a handicap. The latter represents the Imperial Aura-Galvin festival form and is entitled to improve a good bit again into his second season.
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  6. #465
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    Ascot 3.40 Might Bite 20/1 5 places (and boostable).

    I recently mentioned men in white coats coming to take me away.

    Two years ago they would have been coming to take away anybody who suggested that Might Bite would get into a handicap off 152.

    In many ways he reminds me of Wayward Lad, a brilliant horse at his best but couldn't get up the last 100 yards of the hill in the Gold Cup against inferior animals.

    I still believe his exertions against Native River got to him even if he did win next time out and it's entirely possible he'll never be the same horse again. That's what his form is suggesting but it has certainly looked to me like he hasn't been put into races latterly, even cross-cuntry ones, and that has seen his mark drop to that of a mid-range handicapper.

    Hendo was recently raving about how well he was doing in his training for the kid-on races so I'm hoping against hope - maybe that should be backing against hope - that he still retains most of his peak ability. If the different routine has him sparky again he would pick up this lot and carry them off 152.

    At the price and with the extra places on offer I'm happy to pay to find out. We'll probably know early enough. If he races with or just off the pace he might at least be trying. If he's held up at the back with Nico lighting a Hamlet another day will probably be on the agenda.
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  8. #466
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    Wetherby 12:25 - Chase The Wind (general 40/1)

    A hateful race, full of geriatrics and inconsistent dodgepots. The selection probably qualifies as both, but so do several others in the field, and no reason that I can see, why this one should be such a massive outlier on price.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Ascot 3.40 Might Bite 20/1 5 places (and boostable).

    I recently mentioned men in white coats coming to take me away.

    Two years ago they would have been coming to take away anybody who suggested that Might Bite would get into a handicap off 152.

    In many ways he reminds me of Wayward Lad, a brilliant horse at his best but couldn't get up the last 100 yards of the hill in the Gold Cup against inferior animals.

    I still believe his exertions against Native River got to him even if he did win next time out and it's entirely possible he'll never be the same horse again. That's what his form is suggesting but it has certainly looked to me like he hasn't been put into races latterly, even cross-cuntry ones, and that has seen his mark drop to that of a mid-range handicapper.

    Hendo was recently raving about how well he was doing in his training for the kid-on races so I'm hoping against hope - maybe that should be backing against hope - that he still retains most of his peak ability. If the different routine has him sparky again he would pick up this lot and carry them off 152.

    At the price and with the extra places on offer I'm happy to pay to find out. We'll probably know early enough. If he races with or just off the pace he might at least be trying. If he's held up at the back with Nico lighting a Hamlet another day will probably be on the agenda.
    Took 20/1 BOG last night for a sentimental bet, and agree with all your reasoning, DO - especially the bit about men i. White coats.

    Should probably be double the price on recent runs, tbh, but basket-cases are unpredictable, and they do sometimes oblige.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  10. #468
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    MELBOURNE CUP. 4AM

    STRATUM ALBION 33/1
    WARNING 40/1
    5 places
    Did you know the prize money for 12th place is 86 grand.

    My mate went to have a tattoo of an Indian on his back.half way through he said ' dont forget I want a big tomahawk '
    The tattoo artist said ' give me a chance mate I've only just finished his turban'��

  11. #469
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In tomorrow's Haldon Gold Cup I'm standing by Marracoudja at 40/1.

    I watched it carefully last time and saw straight away that it was only there for the air. I suspect Not That Fuisse is there as a market decoy and if my figure for the selection is correct he only has the second-season improvers to worry about and it looks to me like Global Citizen is being prepped for something somewhere down the line, which reduces their numbers. I'll probably save on Esprit Du Large who might be one of the more likely lads.
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  12. #470
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've taken a pop at two longshots in the Melbourne Cup:

    Dashing Willoughby ew 7pl 66/1 - on the up earlier in the season. If he's been trained for this ever since, Balding is a man to have on your side.

    Mustajeer ew 7pl 80/1 - former Ebor winner. Got a bad trip in this race last year when only 18/1 and proved the point winning next time up. Badly out of form this season but no 80/1 if he's back to his best.
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  13. #471
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In tomorrow's Haldon Gold Cup I'm standing by Marracoudja at 40/1.
    ...

    I'll probably save on Esprit Du Large who might be one of the more likely lads.
    Typical of my luck. One falls and hampers the other out of contention.
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  14. #472
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I think someone might have mentioned this one elsewhere. I'm not trying to steal their thunder, just acknowledging that they've already mentioned it.

    In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.
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  15. #473
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    It may have been me DO. I have him backed antepost along with Topofthegame.

  16. #474
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.
    I've taken two more nibbles at long odds in the race.

    Lamanver Pippin 50/1 5pl - assuming TOTG runs LP will be 7lbs 'wrong', which might be offset at least partially by a good claimer, and I'm not convinced he'll even run, let alone stay the trip. He weakened badly late on in the NH Chase but is currently top-rated on RPRs (from his mark) and, as a second-season novice could improve considerably. Tizzard tends not to send donkeys for this race so if he makes the cut he might not be 50/1. They might campaign him to pick up a penalty as it would only be 4lbs so wouldn't affect his weight, in which case his price would probably contract anyway. It's worth some fun money early doors.

    Potterman 40/1 5pl - this is Alan King's only entry for the race and is already in good form. Technically he is another second-season chaser but has already shown improved form, winning really nicely at Market Rasen and duly raised. However, this time last year, he was a 143-rated novice taking on the 151-rated Vinndication in an open £100k handicap chase at Ascot, beaten only five lengths. His rating subsequently came down and his new mark following his summer win leaves him a pound below that so, arguably, he might still have second-season improvement in him. It's possible the Scottish National is the target, as the trainer ran Dingo Dollar (twice) in this en route to its main objective at Ayr . But he also won this with that good grey Smad Place. Again, I have no idea if the plan is to run but he only needs six to come out to make the cut an he's near the top on RPRs.

    (A wee reminder or those who don't use the facility - if you bring up the card at the RP site and click on the top of a column it will sort them for you.)
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  17. #475
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    I believe I saw Potterman entered up for the Badger Ales this Saturday. The form of his last run finishing a place in front of Some Chaos was a decent run. Some Chaos has won since. They could re oppose on Saturday.

    Ps, he was beaten 15 lengths by Vinndication, fyi, DO.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th November 2020 at 5:44 PM.

  18. #476
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    Looking at the proximity of 5 lengths between Regal Encore and Vinndication, in that chase you refer to you last year, I can't really believe they sent Regal Encore off at the price that they did last Saturday.

    On that one performance one could argue he was nicely handicapped off 145.

    Anyways, we live and learn.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th November 2020 at 6:00 PM.

  19. #477
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Looking at the proximity of 5 lengths between Regal Encore and Vinndication, in that chase you refer to you last year, I can't really believe they sent Regal Encore off at the price that they did last Saturday.

    On that one performance one could argue he was nicely handicapped off 145.

    Anyways, we live and learn.
    On Saturday I wrote elsewhere:

    Regal Encore strikes me as a solid marker for the race. He tends to be a trier in good handicaps at this CD, usually running to his best form. His best form, though, shouldn’t be good enough to win an average renewal. I can see him running his race but finding one or two just too good.

    Opted not to back it, not expecting the race to fall apart as it did. My main bet in the race was Whatmore

    My bad re the Vinndication form too. Eyes to blame. Not worried about the Badger entry. Plenty of Hennessy runners use it to get fit.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th November 2020 at 7:19 PM.
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  20. #478
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    Potterman declared for the Badger ales on Saturday, along with Some Chaos who can run well assuming he jumps okay.
    Last edited by Marb; 5th November 2020 at 12:55 PM.

  21. #479
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    Like I said, I'm not worried about Saturday's entry for Potterman. If he's up to going close at Newbury he won't be winning on Saturday because he won't be able to afford the penalty. If he does win, I can't even see him going to Newbury. You need either a Gold Cup horse or something stupidly well handicapped to win a modern Hennessy and he's already shown too much of his hand. I'll happier to see a jog round in midfield at the weekend.
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  22. #480
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    There might be one over-priced in the Badger race.

    Erick Le Rouge 25/1 4pl / 22/1 5pl - has had a prep run and wears pieces for the first time, another second-season novice who went off favourite last time so clearly didn't run to expectations and today's price might be an over-reaction to that run but he's had a month to get fitter.
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