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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Happy enough with that.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ascot Stakes - Rochester House 25/1 to six places seems reasonable.
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  3. #23
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    And Cliffs Of Dooneen probably shouldn't be as long as he is. Won off higher in Ireland a couple of years ago but trainer has been cold.
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  4. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Can't resist some 150/1 (6pl) and 200/1 (4pl) Carntop. Stamina is a serious doubt but there's back-class there.
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  5. #25
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Ascot Stakes - Rochester House 25/1 to six places seems reasonable.
    I'll take that. Race outlay covered.

    Cliffs Of Dooneen just missed out on the place money in seventh dammit and Carntop loomed very dangerously two out. As I suspected might happen, he fell in a hole at that point.

    Good runs from longshots.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th June 2020 at 4:52 PM.
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  6. #26
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    Some decent ones there DO.i did cliffs of dooneen 16/1 10 places.

    Tomorrow.
    Baltic baron 335 I cant believe its drifted to 40/1 so I've gone in again and also 20/1 10 places and a bit of 80/1 2 places.
    I could sulking for weeks.

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    Desert Orchid (16th June 2020)

  8. #27
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    First up today is Zhui Feng 20/1 in the opener. He's well-weighted on his best form and well-drawn. He wasn't far behind Bell Rock, one of the favourites for the proper race, last time and is more likely to have been prepping for this rather than trying its heart out then. Martin Dwyer has ridden him in three of his best five RPR performances, two of which were at this course and he's a past Hunt Cup winner (2017) off 6lbs higher and was rated 14lbs higher at his peak. Not my main bet in the race but worth a saver.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th June 2020 at 10:55 AM.
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  10. #28
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    2.25 Trumpet Man 25/1 - I think this year more than ever we might need to look beyond the form book. I've long been a believer in interpreting trainers' intentions as much as form in races of this nature, an approach that has served me well, and I latched on to Mark Johnston in this race a long time ago. He tends to go in mob-handed but 'only' has three this time. Unfortunately he's booked Ryan Moore and Frankie for two of them but I'm hoping Joe Fanning was allowed free choice to pick Trumpet Man and with the jockey likely to try and control the pace I'm hoping he can avoid trouble in running. Again, not my main bet in the race; just a hopeful saver.
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  12. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Baltic baron 335 I cant believe its drifted to 40/1 so I've gone in again and also 20/1 10 places and a bit of 80/1 2 places.
    Joined you at 33/1, Outsider. Decent place prospects and one of many possible winners in the race.

    There's another in the race I plan to back but will wait until later as I expect it to drift a bit.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th June 2020 at 11:58 AM.
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  14. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Joined you at 33/1, Outsider. Decent place prospects and one of many possible winners in the race.

    There's another in the race I plan to back but will wait until later as I expect it to drift a bit.
    I'm not having a good day.

    The one I've waited for is Petrus which I've taken at 33/1 to 7 places. He didn't drift as I'd hoped but he has a fair combination of form credentials and draw.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good run for the place, Outsider. I'm happy enough with that.

    It wasn't a particularly satisfactory race from my point of view in the sense that I found I could make strong cases for nearly all the market leaders and found it difficult to pick one over any of the others so I left them all alone, especially as they all seemed to have tough draws to overcome. BB and Petrus were my only two bets in the race but only because of the prices.
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  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm not having a good day.

    The one I've waited for is Petrus which I've taken at 33/1 to 7 places. He didn't drift as I'd hoped but he has a fair combination of form credentials and draw.
    I am not having a great week but the meeting is still very young!!!

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  19. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    4.40 - I'll probably nibble at a couple in this. Hochfeld 40/1 is first up. He has done me the odd favour in the past and I think he could be chucked in off 98, having once been up to just about winning at this level off 103.
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  20. #34
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    4.40 - I'll probably nibble at a couple in this. Hochfeld 40/1 is first up. He has done me the odd favour in the past and I think he could be chucked in off 98, having once been up to just about winning at this level off 103.
    Added Amazing Red 50/1, also has decent old form.
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  21. #35
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    A speculative punt tomorrow in the 4.10 extra place market
    Glasvegas 30/1 10 places.

  22. #36
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thursday

    1.15 - Bronze River 20/1 - entitled to be on as much of a curve as anything else in the race and the Turnip is an interesting engagement for a stable in flying form.
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  23. #37
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    Two outsiders against the field in the Jersey as I'm struggling to enthuse too much about my tracker horse Final Song or indeed the other market leaders:

    Mystery Power 22/1 and Symbolize 33/1, both long prices considering their form credentials and stable form. Enhanced places available too.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th June 2020 at 10:56 AM.
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  24. #38
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Britannia - I've taken 28/1 Cherokee Trail to 6 places. It's a tracker horse and should be suited by dropping back in trip but maybe not by the ground, probably a factor in his price, but 28/1 for Gosden-Coolmore-Moore in a handicap?
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  25. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    A speculative punt tomorrow in the 4.10 extra place market
    Glasvegas 30/1 10 places.
    Followed you in at 125/1 in the normal market. The horse is near the top on RPRs. Where did you get the market to 10 places?
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  26. #40
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    Good to see you back at it D.O after all the trouble with your eyes. Good luck with the thread and the bets in general. Hope you're all well and winning. Still on a break myself but hoping to return to the game for next jumps season providing all's well so I might be popping in a bit more often.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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