The 2020 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

I have what I hope will be some belters today

Just remember it's all a bit of fun...

First up is one of my Ebor longshots (the others are mentioned on the York thread but I haven't backed them yet).

Stargazer - I've taken it at 100/1 ew, 200+ (exchange) and 9/1 place-only (the advertised 12/1 doesn't exist with Sky) - why turn up in this race after a year and a half off? He was on a lovely upward curve when last seen, only coming off the bridle just over a furlong out and nudged along to beat the then well-handicapped Cosmelli at Newcastle. He'd have been a single-figure price for the Northumberland Plate and Kirby is a serious target man.

I suppose some big AW race further down the line might be the aim but I can't let him go at today's odds in such a big race.

[Desert Orchid]

Next up - Punctuation 2.25 33/1 5pl - he actually tops my ratings table for the race although I expect one or two to improve past him. He ran in the Queens Vase (G2) so they must have thought he was decent but he pulled too hard there. He then ran in a valuable handicap at Haydock and despite losing a shoe and being hampered on the turn posted a better RPR than at Ascot. He then took on Revolver at Sandown where he stumbled at the start and met troubling in running but only lost by three lengths trying to give 3lbs. I don't think he should be 33/1.

[Desert Orchid]

Next up - 3.00 Brando 25/1 - this is my only bet in the race but really only because I can't bring myself to take 7/4 about One Master which I think should win. However, I put up old Marlon for the July Cup and he was desperately unlucky not to finish second at worst after losing a good ten lengths out of the stalls. I suppose that could happen again here but if he breaks on level terms he has the class to beat this lot and he won't mind the ground. His career best performances have been at 6f in heavy (Sprint Cup), 6½f on good (Deauville G1, twice), 6f in good-to-soft under 9-10 £200k Ayr Gold Cup, and beating Donjuan Triumphant up Hamilton's stiff 6f in soft ground. He was also second in the 2017 G1 Foret over 7f in soft and it may be that the trip will now suit. He shouldn't be 25/1.

[Desert Orchid]

I mentioned the Ebor on the York thread and have now made all my bets.

I've spread some dough pretty thinly across the 20/1+ horses on the long list but would highlight two in particular for nominations for the thread:

King's Advice 33/1 6pl - one of my main bets in the race because he was 7/1 for it last year off 112 but gets to run off 103 today. There's a reason for his drop down the ratings but I've thought since early in the season they were targeting something big, probably this. he's also showed signs that the ability is still there.

Dash Of Spice 33/1 5pl - Impressive winner of the Chookie Embra in 2018 off this mark he was 3/1f for the John Smith's Cup off 5lbs higher but "ran flat" and wasn't seen again until this season. Tried over this trip first time up he was bang there two out before being eased down. He got a good run out in front back at Ascot racing with his old zest before again being eased off. They probably didn't expect him to make the cut for this but switched him from yesterday's race when he did. On his best old form he could win.

[moehat]

I have what I hope will be some belters today

Just remember it's all a bit of fun...

First up is one of my Ebor longshots (the others are mentioned on the York thread but I haven't backed them yet).

Stargazer - I've taken it at 100/1 ew, 200+ (exchange) and 9/1 place-only (the advertised 12/1 doesn't exist with Sky) - why turn up in this race after a year and a half off? He was on a lovely upward curve when last seen, only coming off the bridle just over a furlong out and nudged along to beat the then well-handicapped Cosmelli at Newcastle. He'd have been a single-figure price for the Northumberland Plate and Kirby is a serious target man.

I suppose some big AW race further down the line might be the aim but I can't let him go at today's odds in such a big race.

I have to back the Kirby horses as I'm a fully paid up member of the Lady Buttons fan club. I think their main aim is for him to come back sound but he's a serious horse and I'd love for them to win this especially after losing their good bumper horse recently. And I do like backing horses that have been off the track for a while, my take on it being that they must have faith in the horse to persevere [think Litigant], that a fragile horse needs to win because they never know if there's another race in them and they won't risk them not being fully fit. My pin has ended up on Jeremiah, which totally surprised me, but I've had to go for it.

[Desert Orchid]

Next up - Punctuation 2.25 33/1 5pl - he actually tops my ratings table for the race although I expect one or two to improve past him. He ran in the Queens Vase (G2) so they must have thought he was decent but he pulled too hard there. He then ran in a valuable handicap at Haydock and despite losing a shoe and being hampered on the turn posted a better RPR than at Ascot. He then took on Revolver at Sandown where he stumbled at the start and met troubling in running but only lost by three lengths trying to give 3lbs. I don't think he should be 33/1.

Nutted for the place

It should have occurred to me that Murphy on the lower-rated stablemate probably merited more respect than I gave it yet it was logic like that that put me on to Bodyline (who looked every inch a non-trier).

Two races down. Not looking good.

[Colin Phillips]

Punctuation, owned by Her Maj, used as a pacemaker for the winner......off with his head.

[Outsider]

This time next year we could be millionaires Rodney.

Pivione 440y 20/1...NR
Escape the city 240s? 22/1.......a bit unlucky 3rd
Rattling jewel 545c 20/1 firs reserve....NR
Boy in the bar 755ch 20/1.....NR

That was good 3rd 22/1 and 3 non runners.

[Desert Orchid]

Glutton for punishment...

Cartmel 2.15 Theflyingportrait 33/1 - I'm sure I put this one up for a big festival race a while back only for it to disappoint but this is a much weaker event than any festival race. Ran in the 2019 Grand Annual off 144 but has come back down a fair bit to 132. However, last September he stormed clear at Kelso off 130 so has to be dangerous if on a going day. Those going days are nowhere near as infrequent as once in every 34 races. He's won three times or been placed second or third 8 times from 16 runs in the two seasons before this one. His reappearance will hopefully have got him straight for this so I I'm happy to take the price today.

[Desert Orchid]

I knew my fate five minutes before the off there.

Any time TFP runs well he either leads or races close to the pace but it was clear beforehand he was going to give the others a start, walking around several lengths behind. Maybe they decided the change in the going was against him and just decided to give him a gallop but he goes straight into my tracker as he'll almost certainly drop below his last winning mark for this and I want to be on when he wins.

[Outsider]

Friday.Irish cambridgeshire.
TRADING POINT looks interesting at 66/1. Ex David O'meara.after just getting caught the time before last he stayed on for 5th over a mile on heavy.

[Desert Orchid]

Copied pasted from the York thread:

I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.

[Marb]

Friday.Irish cambridgeshire.
TRADING POINT looks interesting at 66/1. Ex David O'meara.after just getting caught the time before last he stayed on for 5th over a mile on heavy.

Good luck tomorrow matey.

Sir Jack Thomas from a stable who won the big handicap last weekend for me. 20s into 14s. Well weighted, imo.

[Outsider]

Good luck tomorrow matey.

Sir Jack Thomas from a stable who won the big handicap last weekend for me. 20s into 14s. Well weighted, imo.

Stablemate.

[Marb]

Yes indeed. I might play the reverse combination forecast and tricast with our two horses and the favourite near the off.

[Desert Orchid]

No individual longshot today (thought I had one at Perth but it has halved since yesterday afternoon) but these three at Goodwood in a treble will pay better than 66/1 at best odds.

Chairmanoftheboard 2.25
Native Tribe 3.00
Happy Power 3.35

No doubt two will win and one won't.

[Desert Orchid]

No individual longshot today (thought I had one at Perth but it has halved since yesterday afternoon) but these three at Goodwood in a treble will pay better than 66/1 at best odds.

Chairmanoftheboard 2.25
Native Tribe 3.00
Happy Power 3.35

No doubt two will win and one won't.

What might have been...

Still, after COTB's race I went in for the double on the other two which pays 14/1 at the prices I got.

[Outsider]

435 haydock saturday
GLASVEGAS 33/1 drops into class 4 tomorrow after running in class 2s likes soft.best chance for ages and 33s is my type of price.

[Desert Orchid]

435 haydock saturday
GLASVEGAS 33/1 drops into class 4 tomorrow after running in class 2s likes soft.best chance for ages and 33s is my type of price.

Sickness insurance beckons.

It's a very heavy punting day for me but light on longshots.

The only one I've backed so far is Arctic Sound at 20/1 in the 3.45 at Kempton. He was only 9/2 for the Free Handicap last spring off 110 and although not running well that day came out to run a fine second in the German Guineas. His form was neither great nor consistent thereafter and into this season but after he bombed at Newmarket in June he was gelded and this is his first run since, off just 97. If his mind is now in a better place than his wotsits he could be a very big price but he isn't my main bet in the race.

[Desert Orchid]

At Haydock in the Sprint Cup I've taken Summerghand 33/1 to 4 places. I deliberately avoided him last week - on ratings he should have been odds-on - as I felt they couldn't afford a penalty on top of his 113 mark for the Ayr Gold Cup for winning race only a fifth of its value. Today is different. Today's race is twice the value of the Ayr race and he might only have one horse to beat (certainly on my own ratings). However, it’s maybe significant that Tudhope deserts Summerghand for the less obvious Queen Jo Jo so perhaps another run just to keep him ticking over for Ayr is the order of the day. Still, he’s a huge price for one of his ability so he might be ridden to pick up some place money and if the favourite doesn't run his race he won't need to worry about Ayr.

In the Ascot 4.15, I've backed Accidental Agent at 20/1 (5pl). He did the thread a huge turn in last year's Queen Anne and I always have him in mind here. He hasn't really been in great form this season but this is a big drop in class and the shorter trip might give him a faster pace to aim at. I really can't see past Blue Mist for the win but Accidental Agent strikes me as a super saver with the extra place.