The 2020 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

I've dug up four for today.

In the Great St Wilfrid, George Bowen is given another chance to show his Stewards' Cup form to be wrong. Three of us put him up for that race and I don't plan on being sick if he comes out and wins this. I thought he made his effort a furlong too soon that day and was spent late on. It was still disappointing, though, given his known level. He's only 28/1 today but some are going six places with it.

Nwb 2.25 - Boardman might be a bit of headcase but was still fighting the jockey two out at Goodwood before being hampered and eased right down. Before that at Ayr he hung again but might have needed the run anyway. He probably shouldn't be 40/1 although he was withdrawn recently due to softish ground.

Nwb 3.00 - I'm actually backing four in this race because I think all four are too long. Only two qualify for the thread. We all know about Cosmelli as he's been on this thread, with some success, over the piece. The received wisdom is that he's better on the AW but there are grounds for believing that he can still produce the goods on turf. If those grounds are well founded he shouldn't be 25/1. One that pricks my curiosity is Darksideoftarnside at 50/1. He was on a gentle curve last season for Ian Williams and is now with an even shrewder operator in Neil Mulholland who knows how to lay one out. No worthwhile form in two runs for the new yard but probably shouldn’t be 50/1 either on last year's best.

[Desert Orchid]

Sunday was one disappointing run after another. It's quite galling seeing them either not trying out the back or going too fast out in front.

But we live to fight another day.

I put up Juan Elcano (2.45 York) the other day as a super each-way bet at 16/1 but it's out to 20s this morning. I suspect there's a feeling he won't stay, maybe because he ran in the Guineas, but his dosage suggests strongly otherwise. I've gone in again at the longer price with the BOG.

In the 1.45 I've taken 22/1 A Momentofmadness to six places. I put him up at Goodwood but I'm not convinced he was there to win. If today isn't the day then the Portland almost certainly will be but he is my main bet in the race. Not a qualifier today but Hyperfocus is the main saver. I thought seriously about Jawwaal when it was 8/1 but can't back it now and the other fancy is Acclaim The Nation, for information purposes only.

In the 3.45 Blakeney Point 20/1 to 5 places appeals but isn't the main bet. He hacked up over hurdles recently for his new yard so should be fit. He's very well handicapped on his best form for Roger Charlton when he was beaten only six lengths off 105 in the 2018 Ebor before beating Hochfeld at levels in a Listed event at Chester. Last year he was only five lengths off Eddystone Rock in this race off 99. He's 5lbs lower here. On that form alone he's entitled to be in the mix.

[Desert Orchid]

...the other fancy is Acclaim The Nation, for information purposes only.

Edit - I had it in my mind that ATN was only about 10/1 but it's 25/1 with 6 places so I've taken that too.

[simmo]

Edit - I had it in my mind that ATN was only about 10/1 but it's 25/1 with 6 places so I've taken that too.

Brilliant dessie, took 40 on Betfair. Outstanding!

[wilsonl]

Edit - I had it in my mind that ATN was only about 10/1 but it's 25/1 with 6 places so I've taken that too.

Excellent shout DO

[Desert Orchid]

Edit - I had it in my mind that ATN [Acclaim The Nation] was only about 10/1 but it's 25/1 with 6 places so I've taken that too.

Get in. Covers a lot of bingers

[HawkWing]

Well done!

For what its worth, I've backed Broxi ew in the Acomb at 33s this morning. You too can lose your money on him.

[Marb]

Nice one, Dessie.

[moehat]

Big thank you from me, too!

[Desert Orchid]

For what its worth, I've backed Broxi ew in the Acomb at 33s this morning. You too can lose your money on him.

Great EW shout too HW!

[Outsider]

Edit - I had it in my mind that ATN was only about 10/1 but it's 25/1 with 6 places so I've taken that too.

Well done DO.nice one.

[Desert Orchid]

In the 3.45 Blakeney Point 20/1 to 5 places appeals but isn't the main bet.

A bit disappointing but the main bet was Volcanic Sky at 15/1 to 5 places which ensured a profit on the race. I did get a wee shudder 2f out when I thought he was coming through to win but he didn't stay. Hopefully the handicapper will drop him a couple and he can target something like the November Handicap. I'm a wee bit annoyed at not also backing Summer Moon, especially given the price, which I never really checked because I had noted that her best ratings were at 2m4f but once she got to hit the front her stamina was keeping her there. She was second top on my figures and I didn't fancy the top one (Here And Now).

There's maybe a wee lesson to be taken from today.

Ghaiyyath stays 12f, got to lead and stayed there. Summer Moon stayed further than the race trip, got to the front early in the straight and stayed there. Looks like prominent runners who stay further than the race might have an edge.

[Colin Phillips]

A nice day's investing, DO.

[Outsider]

York thursday

SHELIR 245 22/1 but I'm being greedy I've took 28/1 3 places.likes soft going but has been frustrating.

I expect DO will possibly put this up but I've always followed it and though badly drawn I have to do GLASVEGAS 455 chester 45/1 4 places.

I've also done DOCUMENTING 245 20/1 although it's been put up 6lb for winning and a bit further.

[Desert Orchid]

I wouldn't have time to look at Chester but I might stick some sickness insurance on Glasvegas now that you've highlighted it. I'll have a look at it in the morning.

[Desert Orchid]

York 2.45 - What's The Story 20/1 5pl - Of the four (maybe 5) bets I'm having in the race this is probably the one I fancy the least but it's still worth a small punt at the best terms on offer. He won the race last year off 103 but I went very high with my figures for that renewal so he could win again off 3lbs higher. Interestingly, he's still engaged in the Ebor but there's every chance he'll be taken out at the dec stage later this morning.

I'll need to wait until after 10am to post the other qualifiers for the thread in order to get the price matches and BOGs.

[Desert Orchid]

I'll need to wait until after 10am to post the other qualifiers for the thread in order to get the price matches and BOGs.

The other two qualifiers for today are also in the 2.45. My two main fancies are near the front end of the market so these are just attempts at stealing some value.

Chatez 50/1 to 5 places - is seriously well handicapped on his career best. He won last year’s Spring Cup off 99 for which he went up to 104 but was off injured following his next run. Three quiet runs this season see his mark drop to 95 so if he’s fit, well and still as good as he was he’s on a winnable mark. King pulled a couple of rabbits at royal Ascot so his chance can't be as forlorn as those odds. Of my longshots for the race, he'd be the one I like best.

Another Touch 66/1 to 5 places - hit form late last season on the AW but has good career form on turf, arguably his best run being over CD in a Listed race a couple of years ago, a level he hit on the AW against Via Serendipity at the start of this year.

[Desert Orchid]

Weaver just mentioned Kraken something at a big price in this 2.15. I tried to get 66s. Had to settle for 50s. Presume he's heard something.

[Marb]

I am seriously hoping for the dead eight runners in the Nunthorpe tomorrow as Moss Gill (E/W) will out run the odds of 50/1(Hills) to possibly get a place depending on how the big three do.

A few may remember when I mentioned Moss Gill the last day, especially Danny who thought it needed better ground. It's definately a big if, but if one or two don't run their best races Moss Gill I believe will run the race of his life, having shown a real liking for York both last season plus on his most recent run in a listed race. I cannot see him out the first four let's put it like that.

You simply never know what may get scratched as a non runner before the race. Let's hope the racing gods are with me on this bet. Its a shame there wasn't extra runner in there now as a little bit of insurance against a non runner happening.

[simmo]

So good a tip he said it thrice!