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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #221
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    Just reading through this, and I see a few of you guys are on the same selection as me in the 3.35 George Bowen. That four of us that have tipped up the same horse at 40/1. Surely a first for this thread!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    I've also taken Hey Jonesy 20+/1, Open Wide 22/1, Summerghand 25/1 (v1), Tinto 40+/1 and George Bowen 40/1.
    The scattergun hits the mark again
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  5. #223
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    [QUOTE=Desert Orchid;739815]Copied and pasted from the Goodwood thread:

    [COLOR=#333333][FONT=Tahoma][I] Originally Posted by Outsider
    I've done 5 in the stewards cup for different reasons and probably still wont get the winner.
    KIMIFIVE got 25/1 I have always backed this but needs a lot of luck.young fallen claiming 3lb is a bonus.
    OPEN WIDE 33/1 is another one I've followed and will need the gaps.last year it opened up just right and he flew into 2nd.
    HEY JONESY you would think this course would be ideal and after the wokingham I have to back it again.
    SUMMERGHAND just lost out in the wokingham but O'meara went and won a £6000 race with him so hes worse off now.didnt make sense to me but you still cant rule it out.
    STONES OF DESTINY is well in with a lot of these

    Well happy with that.

  6. #224
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes. Just looking back through to see who else it was that put it up.

    Well chuffed for you too.

    Tell me you did the forecast!!!!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st August 2020 at 3:49 PM.
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  7. #225
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    Well done mate don't know how O'Meara keeps doing it the horse ultra consistent but held no secrets from the handicapper, slap a bit of headgear on and bosh !

    Well played mate 1st and 2nd can't do much better than that.

    And D.O sorry hadn't seen you'd got it aswell.
    Last edited by Danny; 1st August 2020 at 3:50 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  8. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes. Just looking back through to see who else it was that put it up.

    Well chuffed for you too.

    Tell me you did the forecast!!!!
    Unfortunately no.

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    Well done, you clever bastids.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  11. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Just reading through this, and I see a few of you guys are on the same selection as me in the 3.35 George Bowen. That four of us that have tipped up the same horse at 40/1. Surely a first for this thread!
    Fuckin Jonah
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  12. #229
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    I'm going to put one up a/p for the EBOR.

    EUCHEN GLEN 33/1 gen 50/1 SB.

    Looks as if it's been running with this race the aim.

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  14. #230
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    Just one today (so far).

    Ascot 2.25 Silent Attack 40/1 - seems better on the all-weather but last January he was a close third in a £100+k handicap at Meydan off 103 for Saeed bin Suroor. He missed last summer and was sold out of Godolphin to be trained by Tony Carroll who got him back to form on the all-weather last back-end getting his mark up from 98 to 102. After the return from lockdown he was well beaten in the Buckingham Palace then withdrawn from a race due to good-to-soft ground, which had also prevailed at Ascot and might therefore explain the poor run, and he showed a lot more at York a couple of weeks ago on better ground. He’s been dropped another 3lbs to 97 and the claimer is operating at 21% for the trainer – 75% at placings first to fourth – so his 5lbs might be worth taking into account.
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  15. #231
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    Silent Attack doesn't run so money probably saved.

    However, I've re-invested it on Ernest in the 3.00 at Ascot. He's a Listed winner over 1m6f in Germany but has run tamely in both starts here for his new trainer. He'll probably return to some sort of form at some point and has come down 5lbs for those two runs. They might want him down further with something bigger in mind but at 80/1 and an extra place on offer it's enough to tempt me today.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th August 2020 at 1:14 PM.
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    Here's a wild one for tomorrow...

    In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours but I thought I'd get on now just in case it goes the other way. Obviously Dream of Dreams will be very hard to beat but I'm totally underwhelmed by the rest of the field. Lincoln Bright's RPRs on his three runs to date are 64, 74 and 99 so I've extrapolated that curve and let my imagination run riot. But just another 10lbs would get him in the mix for the places and his trainer isn't one for tilting at windmills.
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  17. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Here's a wild one for tomorrow...

    In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours but I thought I'd get on now just in case it goes the other way. Obviously Dream of Dreams will be very hard to beat but I'm totally underwhelmed by the rest of the field. Lincoln Bright's RPRs on his three runs to date are 64, 74 and 99 so I've extrapolated that curve and let my imagination run riot. But just another 10lbs would get him in the mix for the places and his trainer isn't one for tilting at windmills.
    You certainly live dangerously, Desert. Last time I backed anything over 20/1 was around 1984

  18. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    You certainly live dangerously, Desert. Last time I backed anything over 20/1 was around 1984
    Check back through this thread, Barjon. Plenty of great runs from big-priced runners to prove the risk is worth it sometimes. And chuck in the winners of the Wokingham (40/1) and Stewards' Cup (25/1)!!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th August 2020 at 11:11 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Check back through this thread, Barjon. Plenty of great runs from big-priced runners to prove the risk is worth it sometimes. And chuck in the winners of the Wokingham (40/1) and Stewards' Cup (25/1)!!
    Aye, and the 300/1 job yesterday. Evidently WH took 86 bets on him and PP “almost 100”. The owner didn’t have a bet, though.

  20. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours
    They did indeed fall into line with Sky but one bookie is now going 100/1 so I've gone in again.

    I've also taken 25/1 place-only (Betvictor only 5/2 in that market).

    I'm the Billy Bunter of self-flagellation.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th August 2020 at 9:06 AM.
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  22. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

    I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

    He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

    The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

    On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

    I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.
    In theory today's Geoffrey Freer is a lesser race than the Derby although, Serpentine apart, it was a poor Derby, but I have to have some sickness insurance on Max Vega today. Not putting it up as a selection for the thread as it doesn't qualify. Just reminding that I put it up at long odds back then
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th August 2020 at 10:54 AM.
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    SEVENTII 20/1 800chep.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Obviously Dream of Dreams will be very hard to beat but I'm totally underwhelmed by the rest of the field.
    I got that bit right
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  27. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    SEVENTII 20/1 800chep.
    Dead heat 3rd.

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