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Thread: The 2020 Longshot Thread

  1. #361
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    Cambridgeshire.
    GOOD BIRTHDAY 25/1 3rd last year off 98 now off 90.

  2. #362
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Cambridgeshire.
    GOOD BIRTHDAY 25/1 3rd last year off 98 now off 90.
    On my radar too for the same reason.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Outsider (23rd September 2020)

  4. #363
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken another pop at the race.

    Dolphin Vista 150/1

    ...

    There's every chance he won't run ...
    Scratched, as I half-suspected.

    Still, Balgair is now 25s tops so I'm feeling quite chuffed about the 66s.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #364
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Dubai Mirage 25/1 (8 places with Skybet).
    Drawn right up against the nearside rail, where I think they'll be some real honest pace; Data Protection and Majestic Dawn forcing it.
    Stephano is out jogging now to get down to the 8.01, doesn't have a lot to find (Ran well at Ascot from the unfavoured side earlier in the season, so has excuses) and very much looks like a
    Saeed bin Suroor plot.

  6. #365
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Dubai Mirage 25/1 (8 places with Skybet).
    Drawn right up against the nearside rail, where I think they'll be some real honest pace; Data Protection and Majestic Dawn forcing it.
    Stephano is out jogging now to get down to the 8.01, doesn't have a lot to find (Ran well at Ascot from the unfavoured side earlier in the season, so has excuses) and very much looks like a
    Saeed bin Suroor plot.
    On my radar too.

    Along with half the field, I should add

    Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

    I’ll probably also back Dubai Mirage as the sole Godolphin runner, on a curve and the claimer (1-1 for the trainer) has high percentage rates for some shrewd trainers, including 3-3 for Rae Guest. I would have hoped for better than 25/1 though.
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  7. #366
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I’ll probably also back Dubai Mirage as the sole Godolphin runner, on a curve and the claimer (1-1 for the trainer) has high percentage rates for some shrewd trainers, including 3-3 for Rae Guest. I would have hoped for better than 25/1 though.:
    22/1 with Skybet now, someone else thinks there's value there!

  8. #367
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    22/1 with Skybet now, someone else thinks there's value there!
    Guy on sporting life put it up.

  9. #368
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another worth backing - imo - for the Cambridgeshire is You're Hired at 100/1 (or shorter for more places) to six places.

    He might have been put away since impressing here shortly after racing resumed. It’s possible he was the only fit horse on the day but he was two lengths in front with two to run and an eased down 14 lengths in front at the line. He’s only 7lbs higher now and his jockey’s claim will reduce it. I was prepared to back him at 50/1 so the longer odds are a bonus.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #369
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My final longshot for the race is my old pal Afaak. I took 40/1 to eight places but 50s are there to fewer.

    I backed him when he won the Hunt Cup first time up last year and it's possible that race got to him as he hasn't been in the same form since. However, he wasn't too far off it in the Golden Mile despite being caught pretty wide and has since got a good look at Tempus's arse twice. I would have thought Sheikh Hamdan would have had stronger candidates but he relies just on Montatham (first colours, Crowley) and Afaak and he doesn't throw any old animal at these races and neither does the trainer. The prices are an insult to a good horse.

    That's now eight I've backed so far in the race, seven of which are at (at the time of backing) 20/1-100/1. In 2017 first three were 50s, 100s and 50s and there's often real longshots in the placings.

    2018: 3rd, 4th & 8th
    2017: 1st. 2nd, 3rd, 6th & 8th
    2016: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th & 8th, as well as 9th, 10th and 11th

    So I would argue there's method in my madness.

    Now all I need to do is work out how much I need to put on Tempus to cover them all
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th September 2020 at 11:43 AM.
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  11. #370
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Haydock 2.05 - Nicholas T 20/1 - it doesn't strike me as too hot a race and Nicholas T is 2lbs lower than when winning first time up this season and 6lbs lower than when in the mix for the minor placings in the John Smith's. The trip is a slight worry but it might turn into a stamina test.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #371
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Haydock 2.05 - Nicholas T 20/1 - it doesn't strike me as too hot a race and Nicholas T is 2lbs lower than when winning first time up this season and 6lbs lower than when in the mix for the minor placings in the John Smith's. The trip is a slight worry but it might turn into a stamina test.
    Ridden as though today wasn't the day but would still have been placed with a clear run. Blocked at least twice after the jockey made no attempt to close up when he had the chance.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #372
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    That's now eight I've backed so far in the race, seven of which are at (at the time of backing) 20/1-100/1. In 2017 first three were 50s, 100s and 50s and there's often real longshots in the placings.

    2018: 3rd, 4th & 8th
    2017: 1st. 2nd, 3rd, 6th & 8th
    2016: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th & 8th, as well as 9th, 10th and 11th

    So I would argue there's method in my madness.

    Now all I need to do is work out how much I need to put on Tempus to cover them all
    Third (14/1 taken), fourth (100/1), fifth (28/1), sixth (5/1) and eighth (33/1) but Tempus was win-only, obviously.

    The place returns will put me comfortably in front on the race.
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  14. #373
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Stargazer reappears today at similar or better odds (125/1 and 300 on the exchange) so I have to have sickness insurance on him. I've still no idea what the real target is but he doesn't hold a Ces entry, which was my fear. We'll see.

    Fingers crossed one of the longshots at least covers all the relevant bets.
    Anyone chance him today? I didn’t

  15. #374
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I looked at the race but with Goshen in there at odds-on and an easy-looking task I decided to wait for easier opportunities.

    As nickf88 says, I do hope somebody took a punt.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #375
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    Been away for a few weeks. Could access the forum but not post anything so follow the tips but can't thank anyone afterwards when they come in. Anyways, just to say I did have my usual 3 pence ew on Stargazer but it was pure luck in that I made a point of listening to the race on racing radio because of Goshen, spotted Stargazer just before the off and managed to put my pennies on. The Kirbys had had a 250/1 third the other day as well so my loyalty to the stable was rewarded [I've just got hold of a Lady Buttons scarf]. Had a disaster a couple of weeks ago when I had another last minute bet on an Irish race. Blue across the board on oddschecker; came 4th at 40/1 but the race had cut up and they only paid first 3. In my panic I accidentally had a much bigger bet than usual and all but wiped all the money out of my account so I've been chasing winners/losers for ages trying to claw it back. Also Craig Forsyth on W Hill racing tipped the winner of the Cambridgeshire and I backed that, so it was a good couple of days. Would have been sick as a pig if I'd missed Stargazer, though. I know they're worried about his legs every time he runs so need to checkout if he's ok. Following Saphie Osbornes rides at the moment but missed her 18/1 winner on Saturday.

  17. #376
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Chuffed for you, moehat!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #377
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Been away for a few weeks. Could access the forum but not post anything so follow the tips but can't thank anyone afterwards when they come in. Anyways, just to say I did have my usual 3 pence ew on Stargazer but it was pure luck in that I made a point of listening to the race on racing radio because of Goshen, spotted Stargazer just before the off and managed to put my pennies on. The Kirbys had had a 250/1 third the other day as well so my loyalty to the stable was rewarded [I've just got hold of a Lady Buttons scarf]. Had a disaster a couple of weeks ago when I had another last minute bet on an Irish race. Blue across the board on oddschecker; came 4th at 40/1 but the race had cut up and they only paid first 3. In my panic I accidentally had a much bigger bet than usual and all but wiped all the money out of my account so I've been chasing winners/losers for ages trying to claw it back. Also Craig Forsyth on W Hill racing tipped the winner of the Cambridgeshire and I backed that, so it was a good couple of days. Would have been sick as a pig if I'd missed Stargazer, though. I know they're worried about his legs every time he runs so need to checkout if he's ok. Following Saphie Osbornes rides at the moment but missed her 18/1 winner on Saturday.
    Welcome back, was wondering where you'd got to!!

  19. #378
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Here’s one for the thread Away He Goes see post #57 on the Noted in Running thread. Runs Ascot 2:30 and early price 80/1 !!

  20. #379
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    That's the sort of thing we like on this thread barjon!!

  21. #380
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    The amount of rain today/tonight could make it very soft tomorrow which might not suit AWG but I'm on.

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