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  1. #441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Having shortened in a couple of places since the other day, Raakib Alhawa has been pushed right out again, which makes me think Doncaster is probably the plan but I went in again anyway at 125/1 to 5 places. I'd be sick if it won at that price and I'd settled for 66s. It's my twisted logic.
    Just watched the race again. I didn't realise this fella had finished a very good 7th after a slow start. (Looked 6th to me on the TV but the RP result says 7th.) SP 125/1.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  3. #442
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    One for today.

    Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places - When I looked at the race yesterday I decided to look for second-season novices who might improve past the more exposed runners, usually a profitable ploy at this time of year. There's a handful of them in this race, of which WUWY is the longest price. His market weakness is sounding alarm bells but I'm sticking with it rather than be sick if does run as well as I hope. Not my main bet in the race but with the current top price (boostable to over 30/1) and the extra places on offer it might not be too risky. The worst that can happen is finish seventh...

    Edit - the 7lb claimer is 4-11 for the trainer so far this season.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 23rd October 2020 at 10:32 AM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  5. #443
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    I have a few shekels on Percy in the 5.15 Cheltenham @ 40/1 5places, back on good ground and the form of his Uttoxeter win has worked out well . Good conditional jock on too

  6. #444
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    I'm having a small go at Storm Goddess in the 3.00 - 33/1 6 places with Skybet

    Slight doubt on the trip as she travelled best until the last behind Yeavering Belle at Ludlow, but is double that one’s price today, will love the ground and the trainer’s had a winner and 2nd (both fair prices) in this race recently

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  8. #445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places

    The worst that can happen is finish seventh...
    Fvcking prophetic.

    Good shout, though, from Perpetual with Storm Goddess. Another good result for the thread so delighted for you.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  9. #446
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    Trouser the cash 515c 20/1
    Goodbye dancer 315cn 20/1
    Alemaratalyoun 405d 20/1
    Lesssaidthebetter 432g 20/1
    Glasvegas 440d 22/1 4p

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  11. #447
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    Rory Delargy of this parish has won the Racing Post tipster of the flat season with two 40/1 winners among his selections.
    Well done to him and his followers.

  12. #448
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Rory Delargy of this parish has won the Racing Post tipster of the flat season with two 40/1 winners among his selections.
    Well done to him and his followers.
    Top man is rory, though itís incredibly disappointing that he is proving such a success on the Flat.

    The Michael Dickinson of racing forums!
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 23rd October 2020 at 11:10 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  13. #449
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    First up today (might be my only longshot):

    Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th October 2020 at 10:57 AM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #450
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    Just went on to do a few each way bets and noticed that Skybet have removed the BOG on all races were there are enhanced places. When did this come into force or have I missed something.

  15. #451
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    The 2020 Longshot Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by frontrunner View Post
    Just went on to do a few each way bets and noticed that Skybet have removed the BOG on all races were there are enhanced places. When did this come into force or have I missed something.
    Yeah a sneaky move that was effective from Wednesday. Enables them to offer more extra place races apparently
    Reckon it wonít be long before they remove BOG entirely as they donít offer it on bets before 9 on day of race anyway


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by viking; 24th October 2020 at 12:20 PM.

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  17. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First up today (might be my only longshot):

    Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
    My Jumping Prospects book says that they'll be giving him a spin over hurdles to see if his legs will hold up for a switch to chasing. Having said that I stopped backing the King horses on Saturdays [breaking the habit of a lifetime] having heard a stat that his horses don't tend to win on Saturdays. So I'm having to ignore that after the other week and follow you with that one as I used to back the King horses blind on a Saturday and it really hurts when they win.

  18. #453
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Yeah a sneaky move that was effective from Wednesday. Enables them to offer more extra place races apparently
    Reckon it won’t be long before they remove BOG entirely as they don’t offer it on bets before 9 on day of race anyway
    Most of the BOGs don't kick in until 9 or 10am.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  19. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
    To be perfectly honest, I was very happy with the way he travelled and jumped through the race and quite fancied my barra with about a mile to go, thinking maybe he'd just aim to qualify for the final, but without ever asking the horse a question the jockey just eased off and let him coast from that point. A drop of another 5lbs will probably ensue and I'll be gobsmacked if he doesn't have a handicap in him before he goes chasing.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  20. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Trouser the cash 515c 20/1.....1st
    Goodbye dancer 315cn 20/1
    Alemaratalyoun 405d 20/1
    Lesssaidthebetter 432g 20/1
    Glasvegas 440d 22/1 4p
    .......4th

    Profit today.
    Last edited by Outsider; 24th October 2020 at 5:57 PM.

  21. #456
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    I’m sitting on 20-1 Sir Dragonet for the Melbourne Cup......am hoping he will repeat Cox Plate win!
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  22. #457
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinnyj View Post
    I’m sitting on 20-1 Sir Dragonet for the Melbourne Cup......am hoping he will repeat Cox Plate win!
    Wow; good luck with that. I don't know how I came to miss Sir Dragonets adventures down under. I tend not to get attached to the O'Brien horses...so many of them with similar names etc etc but there was something about Sir Dragonet last season that I warmed to. A bit of quirkiness perhaps. Anyway somebody knew something the other night because he went blue across the board just before the race. Is he permanently in Australia now? Will you be staying up for the Cup? I will be, as per usual, but may be away and can't access the forum when I am [can read stuff but not post] so I'll give you my congratulations in advance. By the way, that new Australian lady jockey [Jaimie something] sounds pretty special....scuppered the chances of Sound getting a run in the Cup....

  23. #458
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    One for today.

    Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places - When I looked at the race yesterday I decided to look for second-season novices who might improve past the more exposed runners, usually a profitable ploy at this time of year. There's a handful of them in this race, of which WUWY is the longest price. His market weakness is sounding alarm bells but I'm sticking with it rather than be sick if does run as well as I hope. Not my main bet in the race but with the current top price (boostable to over 30/1) and the extra places on offer it might not be too risky. The worst that can happen is finish seventh...

    Edit - the 7lb claimer is 4-11 for the trainer so far this season.
    From the RP Eyecatchers section:

    Like Colin Tizzard, Ben Pauling doesn't appear to have his horses firing on all cylinders at present and he has a similar recent strike-rate.
    However, this horse put in a fine effort in the 2m5f handicap hurdle won by Captain Tom Cat and, if it wasn't clear enough on his final start at Kempton last season, he is a horse crying out for a step up in trip.
    A point-to-point winner over 3m, he was beaten only four and a half lengths here after challenging wide and towards the unfavoured stands' side. Related to some smart types, he is one to note for staying handicap hurdles with cut in the ground. [Maddy Playle]
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  24. #459
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    The Russian Doyen

    Third, Fontwell, Wednesday

    This seven-year-old was making his first start for 347 days and, given Colin Tizzard's horses have been taking their time to come to hand (one winner from runners 25 in the last fortnight at the time of writing), this was a highly encouraging effort.

    Under pressure a long way out on tiring ground, he stayed on dourly under Robbie Power to finish third to Chirico Vallis and Mr Pumblechook.

    He's a far better chaser – he was fourth in the 2019 novice handicap at the Cheltenham Festival off 141 – and will go to the Paddy Power Gold Cup now as a well-handicapped, unexposed horse with a cracking each-way chance. He's a huge price at 50-1. [Maddy Playle]

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  26. #460
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    Play the part 225P 100/1 is worth 50p ew.finished 14L behind Dreal deal and is 26lb better off and is 8/13 fav for this.

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