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  1. #341
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    COLFER ME 550 curragh 40/1 ran 2nd in the irish lincoln,finished well.winner went up 7lb and the 3rd as gone up 9lb and cover me has dropped 7lb after a few bad runs.needs the ground to keep drying up.

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  3. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    COLFER ME 550 curragh 40/1 ran 2nd in the irish lincoln,finished well.winner went up 7lb and the 3rd as gone up 9lb and cover me has dropped 7lb after a few bad runs.needs the ground to keep drying up.
    My kind of reasoning, Outsider. I've followed you in.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Outsider (13th September 2020)

  5. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Newbury 2.15 Bernardo O'Reilly 66/1 - won off this mark the last time he was on it so no way he should be this price.
    Just logging up last week's form and noticed this wee bastert had gone and won at 22/1 at Donny (his next start?) and I never even knew it was running.

    Hope somebody somewhere remembered and got a turn out of it!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  7. #344
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    I've taken another pop at the Ayr Gold Cup.

    When Marb (I think it was him) first mentioned the race I said I'd look at the likes of Bielsa (because he'd been punted into something like 5/1 for the Wokingham) and/or Koropick (off for a while and dropped a good bit as a kind of allowance).

    Bielsa is still on my radar but doesn't qualify for the thread and I haven't backed it yet but I'm putting my money where my mouth is with Koropick at 100/1.

    He hasn't raced for three years but in that season he was second to Battaash in the Scurry and then went up to 109 for winning the Chipchase. The following month he was beaten less than three lengths behind Washington DC in a G3 at the Curragh, less than a length behind Mr Lupton (currently 12/1 tops on 103). He gets in here off 98.

    He then went to stud but presumably has been in about as much demand as me as he came back into training this season and was gelded fairly recently. I notice he has no progeny so maybe he's just a jaffa.

    Anyway, he's back in training for new connections and has no other entries but he does have a jockey booked (Royston Ffrench) for Saturday. That's no guarantee that he'll run but he's 33/1 tops everywhere else (that counts as a bookie) and only 58 on the exchange. They might all be going 100/1 by Saturday or maybe Hills will decide they've been too generous at this point. I do suspect they'll pull him and I'll lose my money but these are the chances we take.

    It would certainly be a story if he were to come out and win after three years off but we know how much ITV Racing likes a story.
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  9. #345
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    You certainly like to live dangerously, Desert

  10. #346
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    I'll convert you one day, barjon
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  11. #347
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    Gravity Force 4.0 Ayr
    Stars In The Night 5.0Ayr

  12. #348
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    As ever I have no problem with being mob-handed in a big handicap and I've gone in again on the Ayr Gold Cup.

    Roger Varian mentioned this race earlier in the season as a potential target for Spanish City. I backed it in the Bunbury Cup and felt it wasn't put into the race and I've felt the same about its two subsequent races but it's 5lbs better off with Hey Jonesy on Wokingham form and would have been a lot better off with Summerghand which I still fancied.

    He'll also have Ray Dawson's claim which he didn't at Ascot. If he was just prepping since then it wouldn't matter that the claimer rode him. I've had the horse as a potential bet here since the Bunbury Cup and I'm not sure the 25/1 will be available as the race approaches given how big a following Varian and his jockey have. Six places are also available at that price.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  14. #349
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    One of my mob DO but I took 16s will have to have another look at that price.

  15. #350
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    GEORGE BOWEN 20/1 must have a shout in the bronze cup.
    GOLDEN APOLLO 20/1 has a chance to win the silver again.
    ARECIBO 14/1 for gold

    Whether or not I get the winner,I love these big sprint hcaps.

  16. #351
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    You certainly like to live dangerously, Desert
    I've raised the danger levels with a totally mental punt.

    I've never tried this before and have no idea why I'm trying it now. Must be something to do with lockdown...

    I'm going to try and win all three Ayr sprint handicaps in doubles and a treble, each-way, natch.

    Bronze: George Bowen (a longshot for either the Wokingham or Stewards' Cup, maybe even both)
    Silver: Admirality (bit of a guess as I haven't done the form but possibly well in)
    Gold: Another Batt (I could have picked any of my longshots but went for the one with the highest relative rating on career figures)

    Each-way doubles and an each-way trebles to sweetie money with Sky (6,6 & 7 places).
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th September 2020 at 11:24 AM.
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  17. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've raised the danger levels with a totally mental punt.

    I've never tried this before and have no idea why I'm trying it now. Must be something to do with lockdown...

    I'm going to try and win all three Ayr sprint handicaps in doubles and a treble, each-way, natch.

    Bronze: George Bowen (a longshot for either the Wokingham or Stewards' Cup, maybe even both)
    Silver: Admirality (bit of a guess as I haven't done the form but possibly well in)
    Gold: Another Batt (I could have picked any of my longshots but went for the one with the highest relative rating on career figures)

    Each-way doubles and an each-way trebles to sweetie money with Sky (6,6 & 7 places).
    Bon voyage, mon brave. I”m on Call me Ginger in the bronze, but I’ll sacrifice him for your loony, toony bet.

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  19. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Bon voyage, mon brave. I”m on Call me Ginger in the bronze, but I’ll sacrifice him for your loony, toony bet.
    Appropriately enough, then, since I was often called 'ginger' in my technicolor days.
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  20. #354
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    Outside of the Ayr Gold Cup I'm not seeing much scope for longshots. I've backed one at Newbury at 16/1 and it might drift to qualify, at which point I'll put it up.

    But there is one at Newmarket that I genuinely did not expect to qualify and only just checked its price. In the 3.50, I'm struggling to get my head round why Lissitzky is 40/1.

    When he won here early last season it was in the style of a serious improver but he seemed to lose the plot after that. I have him top-rated today on that run. Maybe his price reflects that this is his seasonal debut so presumably he's had problems but he needs a penalty to get into the Cesarewitch so will have to be close to peak fitness. I'd like to think he's been kept off track to preserve his mark and keep him fresh for a late-season campaign but we'll know more by about four o'clock.

    Just in case I'm right about him, I've also taken 66/1 for the Cesarewitch.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  22. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Silver: Admirality (bit of a guess as I haven't done the form but possibly well in)
    Job horse beaten by a proper job horse.

    Pigeons disturbed by a cat regarding the implications for how the big race will pan out. I'm covered on both sides so not too worried.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  23. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    As ever I have no problem with being mob-handed in a big handicap and I've gone in again on the Ayr Gold Cup.

    Roger Varian mentioned this race earlier in the season as a potential target for Spanish City. I backed it in the Bunbury Cup and felt it wasn't put into the race and I've felt the same about its two subsequent races but it's 5lbs better off with Hey Jonesy on Wokingham form and would have been a lot better off with Summerghand which I still fancied.

    He'll also have Ray Dawson's claim which he didn't at Ascot. If he was just prepping since then it wouldn't matter that the claimer rode him. I've had the horse as a potential bet here since the Bunbury Cup and I'm not sure the 25/1 will be available as the race approaches given how big a following Varian and his jockey have. Six places are also available at that price.
    Bastartin Naharr!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  24. #357
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    I was going to put this on the ante-post thread but it qualifies for this one so here goes.

    In the Cambridgeshire, I've taken 20/1 Al Rufaa ew 5pl.

    Its chance isn't entirely obvious on form in the sense that it seems more exposed than the typical Gosden contender and I'm not putting it up simply because it is a Gosden contender. It might not even run.

    I'm putting it up because there has to be a strong chance that, having raced exclusively over seven furlongs in its career, it will improve a lot for stepping up two furlongs in trip, being by Kingman and with a dosage profile for 10f: DP = 1-3-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.31.

    The dam was placed at 1m/1m1f in France and is a half-sister to 1m 2yo and 1m2f Group 1 winner Silasol out of US 1m stakes winner, and is a granddaughter of French 6f/US 8.5f winning half-sister to Arc winner Solemia.

    I've been trying to check the ATR site for information about its stride pattern with regard to its likely optimum trip, to no avail.

    Rab Havlin has ridden it in all its races so I expect him to be up on Saturday but if Frankie takes over it would hardly be a negative. (I've no idea what Frankie's quarantine situation is.)

    The favourites are very much to be feared just as they were in the Ayr Gold Cup but Havlin said it ran flat last time at Haydock and that has maybe been a blessing as far as the price is concerned. Had it come into the race without that defeat it would probably be no bigger than 10/1.

    Given Gosden's record in the race, you'd have to imagine that if this is the one it has to be respected.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; Today at 2:07 PM.
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