My point is the classier types are far better treated in handicaps these days because the handicaps are so compressed. 10 years ago would you have been really fancying horse off marks 148+?
My point is the classier types are far better treated in handicaps these days because the handicaps are so compressed. 10 years ago would you have been really fancying horse off marks 148+?
This is pretty much my working mantra for handicaps.Originally Posted by archie
If I can't split a top weight from a bottom weight on ratings and were asked to pick just one I'd go for the top weight as there are more scenarios that would permit it to win because of its class.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I'm reminded of one of my favourite plots where I spotted a horse being run on the wrong conditions throughout the year - started on 167 made it to the Ultima on 149 and in my head was nailed on.
Unguided missile 1998 Ultima won at 10/1.
So yes, I would have been backing horses at those weights when justified. I'm not convinced that SDB or RP are that well handicapped.
Last edited by simmo; 26th February 2020 at 5:51 PM.
I've been backing top weights in handicaps going back to the days when I was punting under-age and I'll be 65 in September.
Didn't Titus Oates win the Whitbread under 12-7?
Dessie himself won the Irish National under top weight as well as lots of other handicaps.
Burrough Hill Lad won big races under top weight.
It's been happening for ever.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Ten handicaps. Last year only 3 of the winners had a race-card number higher than 5.
The older I get the better I was.
That doesn't mean anything! What if the top 5 on the racecard were all 66/1 shots.
Your point initially wasn't lost on me and i do understand and agree with what you're saying, especially regarding the actual winners of the H'caps.
I backed it too although I can't say I was following its progress through the season. I had it several pounds clear on my ratings on the day. I can't claim to have stated it was nailed on but I did think it was a brilliant bet.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I was just going to say archies post backs up your view nicely
Well used to you being wrong...
I get a wee bit frustrated when TV people express surprise that a highly weighted horse has managed to win.
In the first place, they're at the top of the weights because they're better horses to start with. If, as mentioned earlier, it's rated 155 but you can make a case out for it being 10lbs well in then it's unlikely to be beaten by something that's only 5lbs well in but much further down the weights.
Illegitimi non carborundum
It could be 0 and I could still be right. You go through the handicaps this year and there are a lot of well fancied horses in the top 5-10 weights on the list.I was just going to say archies post backs up your view nicely
With regards to the Pertemps, there is a trend in the weights that when the top weight is 150+ that a horse in the 130's will win it. If top weight is in the high 140's it's more likely to be something in the top 8 of the weights and probably within 6lbs of the top weight.
This year the likely top weight will be 156 with Ronald Pump a likely runner. At worst it will be the 152 that Sire Du Berlais is on. Sire Du Berlais in my opinion is a class act and will go close, but the trends are against him winning.
If I use all of the recent race trends there are two horses that stand out for win material, and they are Tout Est Permis and Relegate. Tout Est Permis is available at 12-16's and ran in the the right qualifier, and Relegate is available at 10's and the price is currently crashing. Given Colm Murphy's record at the Festival and Relegates mark and previous win in the Champion Bumper I'm not surprised I think they'll both go off at shorter than their current prices and there's still some juice. Relegate in my opinion will be vying for favouritism on the day.
Two that just miss the trends on minimum runs are Silver Sheen and Welsh Saint. Both are unexposed and may well run big races. They only miss out on making four perfect trend horses by having one run too few. Given their respective trainers though I'd be less concerned about that trend and I reckon they're both players.
The other two with obvious claims are Phoenix Way and The Storyteller. I don't like the former. He may be unexposed and capable of much better but he has no experience. The Storyteller on the other hand looks a proper plot job and if anything is going to bust the trends it'll be him. The other one that potential fits that bill is Kilbricken Storm. Who has either turned in to a dog or has been plotted. I've made the case for him previously so won't do so again.
To sum up I have the race down to 7 horses, and my preference in the following order:
Relegate
Sire Du Berlais
Silver Sheen
Tout Est Permis
The Storyteller
Kilbricken Storm
Welsh Saint
That's the exactas and trifectas sorted as well then!
Last edited by Maruco; 26th February 2020 at 6:09 PM.
That is basically where I am with the race. If Ronald Pump runs than SDB just wins further. Relegate is a massive danger now.
To sum up I have the race down to 7 horses, and there preference in the following order:
Relegate
Sire Du Berlais
Silver Sheen
Tout Est Permis
The Storyteller
Kilbricken Storm
Welsh Saint
That the exactas and trifectas sorted as well then!
I'm glad I'll get a run from my 20/1 Tout Est Permis voucher which I placed believing he could sneak in off bottom weight but **** me he has looked a bit soulless this season.
Last edited by Slim; 26th February 2020 at 6:11 PM.
Not sure in SDB, was a terrific ride to get him home from Geraghty last year if I remember correctly.
I’m sticking with Kilbricken Storm. Probably have a savour on a couple of others.
Your Tout Est Permis is a live ticket I'd say. 20/1 is a nice price too. He qualified just the way you'd want him to, and getting in off 10st 6lb is ridiculous.
I am!
Lol. I am too. But they do say that true wisdom comes from knowing that you know nothing.
Handicap winners racecard numbers
2019
7/4/3/3/3/12/2/5/17/1
2018
12/20/6/12/13/6/8/21/7/1
2017
1/13/6/6/2/8/14/1/4/12
Stats are just figures for everyone to interpret as they see fit.
Last year was the first Festival after Phil Smith retired as senior handicapper. It remains to be seen whether or not this might have been a significant event.
The older I get the better I was.
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