He was low at a good few of them in true French fashion...he'll be going two strides quicker in Chelters and won't end well but look stranger things have happened!!
He was low at a good few of them in true French fashion...he'll be going two strides quicker in Chelters and won't end well but look stranger things have happened!!
Last edited by Slim; 25th February 2020 at 9:22 PM.
Have the Coral Cup weights if anyone wants advance info before release
Post me up Ronald Pumps mark for the Pertemps when you know it. Cheers DG.
Curiousity killed the cat.
Last edited by Marb; 26th February 2020 at 1:11 PM.
Top weigh 11st 12lb
Handicap weights
https://files.constantcontact.com/20...e9f499e49c.pdf
Yes, the brother was on the phone to relay that to me this morning.
It reminded me of something I wanted to put on the thread yesterday.
(Cue another one of my madcap theories.)
I have long been of the opinion that, in 'penalty kick' races especially but also in general, sometimes horses are sent out for experimental/educational runs. By that I mean that I think sometimes they're sent out to lead on the wrong leg or deliberately ridden to fiddle fences to teach them to cope or even just to see if they can cope.
I used to do this when I played football. If we had built up a lead we knew was never going to be pegged back I would start playing with my 'wrong' foot. It was something I practised a lot in the street anyway but I liked seeing how I got on in a match. Sometimes it made me look really poor but I didn't mind so long as I was learning.
The brother then reminded me that his school team was once told by the guy who ran it ('coach' would be stretching credulity) to start playing with the 'wrong' foot in the second half as they were 6-0 up and he didn't want his young opponents crushed by a much heavier defeat.
I also recall Gordon Strachan explaining why he told his [Celtic] team to take the foot off the gas in the second half of a match because the game was won, the league was won and he didn't see any dignity in humiliating a team that were trying their heart out.
I imagine it's better for a horse to learn to cope with difficulties deliberately put in its way rather than just cruising through a race and winning hard held.
Just a thought.
Illegitimi non carborundum
We knew he would have top weight.
I am not that surprised. It would be some weight carrying performance but I think he can do it. He has ran big races before with 11:12 on his back. I think he is one of the class horses in the race. That will get him through it.
I just hope connections aren't put off.
The proof will be in the pudding.
Last edited by Marb; 26th February 2020 at 1:26 PM.
I would suggest if he was up to winning a festival handicap off 156 he shouldn't be running in a handicap at all.
He'd need to be nearer a 166 horse to do that and not many championship horses are higher than that at the moment.
Then again, I backed Un Temps Pour Tout in the Ultima off 155 because I felt he was as good a horse as Native River, so it's possible.
Illegitimi non carborundum
This is comparing apples and oranges though in terms of an argument.
You have highlighted his potential mark of 166 which you say he will need to run to if winning the pertemps. Then you say there aren't many hurdlers rated 166 in the staying division at the moment.
My point here is that, the only way the above statement could be credible is if you also looked at the possible marks of the winners and placed horses in the 2020 stayers hurdle.
I.E apply your same logic to what you think Paisely Park, Emitom, or other contenders will run to.
There is no point looking at future marks of pertemps contenders, but then comparing them to the marks of the stayers hurdle field before the stayers hurdle is there?
Skewed analysis, imvho.
Last edited by Marb; 26th February 2020 at 2:20 PM.
If Ronald Pump won the Pertemps he would likely go up 6lbs or 7lbs which would put him on a new mark of 162 or 163.
He wouldn't finish in the first six places running to that mark in this years stayers. Paisely Park is already on 169. He'll probably be a mid-to-high 170's horse after the Stayers assuming he places.
A horse like Emitom is only mid 150's now (153), literally rated within 3lbs of Ronald Pump, but is fancied to improve at least a stone in the Stayers (by me).
Last edited by Marb; 26th February 2020 at 2:21 PM.
Obviously it isn't a like for like situation. We're comparing a handicap with a championship race.
The Stayers' Hurdle likely protagonists are the protagonists because they are exposed. We know what most of them will do. If they all run to their existing marks Paisley Park will probably win (I think he's a lot better than his mark) and the Irish horses are the dangers but I'm not sure many of them can run much better than 166. Therefore, if I owned a horse I believed was a 166 I think I would be more tempted to take in the Stayers' Hurdle than the Pertemps. After all, they say never be afraid of one horse.
Your guy could be a 166 horse and find itself beaten by a 140-rated horse who's really a 155 horse (probably trained in Ireland, for that matter).
Alternatively, it could be a 156 horse running off 156, in which case it will get pumped in the Pertemps.
I'm happy not to live by your logic
Illegitimi non carborundum
My logic is just fine.
The great thing about this game of opinions is we get to find out.
He has the form. He needs to run a few pounds ahead of his mark to win. That is no big deal.
Anyone who thinks connections should throw away their chance of winning the pertemps to finish down the field in the Stayers is obviously just badly guessing.