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  1. #261
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    I tend not to take AP betting too seriously in general but sometimes I do feel utterly compelled to pile in Richard Baerlein-style (but usually resist). I've probably got fewer AP bets so far this season than in many years.

    Probably 90% of my AP bets are just about nicking a bit of value and in recent years the NRNB concession has tempted to bet a bit more often than normal but every now and again I get that twitch. I'm long enough in the tooth to know what can go wrong.

    I have a very big bet on Paisley Park this season at 5/6 which I genuinely believe is as good as past the post but the ones I like the look of are Imperial Aura (Close Bros 25/1) and Mick Pastor (Triumph) which I'm on several times to small stakes at 20/1 down to 12/1.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  3. #262
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    Mick Pastor is very interesting for the Triumph. It's a big deal that they are turning down the Fred Winter with him.

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  5. #263
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    Palmers Hill out tomorrow in Kemptons 12:40. See how he gets on.

    He holds two entries in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe and looks like one of Jonjo O Neill's best hopes of the meeting.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st February 2020 at 10:42 PM.

  6. #264
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    When did the Mick Pastor train leave the station? Must admit he's slipped my radar since be was thumped by 40L at Cheltenham by Allmamkind when went off 5/2 fav in November.

    Didn't pay much need to his Ludlow win as it was a much lower level race.

    His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?

  7. #265
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    I hope Palmer's hill is conserving his mark tomorrow. Have had a strong EW bet on Our Power in the same race.

  8. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?
    It was something I read somewhere, something along the lines of his French collateral form making him out to be potentially a 150-160 juvenile. At the time I was just interested in taking a bit of value at 20s. I think Paul Kealy tipped him a few weeks back too, or maybe I read PK first, can't really remember.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  9. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    When did the Mick Pastor train leave the station? Must admit he's slipped my radar since be was thumped by 40L at Cheltenham by Allmamkind when went off 5/2 fav in November.

    Didn't pay much need to his Ludlow win as it was a much lower level race.

    His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?
    He pulled like a train at Ludlow and absolutely **** up. Could be a proper horse if he learns to settle. They sent him off near 2s on the machine at Ludlow.

  10. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    I hope Palmer's hill is conserving his mark tomorrow. Have had a strong EW bet on Our Power in the same race.
    Front two in the market pretty awful prices.

  11. #269
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    Nice thread this.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  12. #270
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post

    But then all you need is one good year to reinvigorate your love for the antepost game. As luck would have it last year I had Espoir D'allen 36/1, Topofthegame 16/1, Al Boum photo 20/1 and Early Doors 16/1 (Thanks Slim).
    Exactly, a good year makes up for two or three near misses. Last year I had Hardline 25s, Apples Jade 9s Ballyward 33s, Santini 10s Real Steel 20s, Monalee 16s.

    Getting them there is half the battle, but it's no use if none of them win.

  13. #271
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    Not a handicap but in case anyone has missed this:

    https://twitter.com/PaulJonesRacing/...453060608?s=19

    I've taken 50/1 for the Marsh Chase. Irish Stamp tells me it's rated 150 in France where it is 4/8 over fences. It wouldn't need to be too impressive on Tuesday to end up going off 6s in the worst Marsh Chase of all time
    Last edited by Slim; 22nd February 2020 at 2:10 PM.

  14. #272
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    Bookmakers impressed with Palmers Hill. Either that or they have layed a few bets. Shortening for both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe.

  15. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Bookmakers impressed with Palmers Hill. Either that or they have layed a few bets. Shortening for both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe.
    Will be based on him running well.

  16. #274
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    Yeah I think he will be a big hope for the stable nearer the time.

    He won't be in my main each way patent which is my serious bet for the meeting but I am satisfied he needs to be in my each way smaller stakes goliath fun bet.
    Last edited by Marb; 22nd February 2020 at 2:40 PM.

  17. #275
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    Kildisart given a very sympathetic ride today I thought. 33/1 for the Ultima taken


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  18. #276
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    I've long said JP could win all 10 handicaps this year but he really is starting to look like he has an unbelievable handicap hurdle squad.

    Coral Cup - Dame De Compagnie
    Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais/Phoenix Way
    Boodles Juvenile - Aramax
    County - Ciel De Neige/Janidil (Is he injured?)
    Martin Pipe - Entoucas/Front Row/Ilikethewayurthinkin

  19. #277
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    From Open morning last week,

    “Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him.

    G&G have nothing else in the AB Willie but good luck convincing the man in the hat to go there.

    The fact that he's been entered at DRF in a G1 and Betfair hurdle and not taken up either of those engagements suggests he has a mark worth waiting for.

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  21. #278
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Exactly!!! And this is why I started this whole line of questioning.

    I've backed Relegate at 50/1 antepost and unfortunately it's extremely unlikely he'll get a run off OR 130. Can't see him getting raised any for yesterday's 4th and because he was off for a year, highly unlikely he'll get enough 'cheating Irish tax' from the UK handicapper to get him to 136/137 - which is what you'd need in an average/normal year to get in.

    I'm massively clutching at straws that with the low entry number, some entries not even qualified, and maybe a small bit of tax from the UK handicapper, that he might sneak in at the very bottom.

    We live in hope!
    Irish Handicapper put Relegate up 2 lbs for his 4th place in last weeks qualifier.
    Now OR 132 in Ireland - only needs 4/5 lbs 'Irish cheating B*stards tax' from UK handicapper on Wed now to get a run in the Pertemps.
    Not impossible

  22. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by redundant pal View Post
    From Open morning last week,

    “Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him.

    G&G have nothing else in the AB Willie but good luck convincing the man in the hat to go there.

    The fact that he's been entered at DRF in a G1 and Betfair hurdle and not taken up either of those engagements suggests he has a mark worth waiting for.
    Great post. Thank you.

  23. #280
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Not a handicap but in case anyone has missed this:

    https://twitter.com/PaulJonesRacing/...453060608?s=19

    I've taken 50/1 for the Marsh Chase. Irish Stamp tells me it's rated 150 in France where it is 4/8 over fences. It wouldn't need to be too impressive on Tuesday to end up going off 6s in the worst Marsh Chase of all time
    Piggybacking this at 33s NRNB with some sickness insurance

    It might look a weakish race going into it but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a serious performance from something on the day.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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