Does it really matter what rating they give Tiger Roll, surely it's the relation to what the others are given that counts....164 carried top weight last year.Originally Posted by archie
If they gave him 168 and then awarded Bristol De Mai say 165, have they not effectively given Tiger 173?
Last edited by Maxbet; 10th February 2020 at 10:46 AM.
I've been saying as much for long enough, Maxbet, but the example you offer isn't, I would suggest, realistic. Tiger Roll and BDM are currently 171 and 170 respectively. They might get in off 168 and 167 respectively but I don't see the handicapper widening the differential.
Personally, I think they'll be on 170 and 169 but I've been known to be wrong, as you know.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th February 2020 at 11:49 AM.
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My point isn't what they will give them Dessie, more to do with how he can manipulate it....Do you think O'leary would be happy if they Gave Tiger Roll 162 but top weight.I've been saying as much for long enough, Maxbet, but the example you offer isn't, I would suggest, realistic. Tiger Roll and BDM are currently 171 and 170 respectively. They might get in off 168 and 167 respectively but I don't see the handicapper widening the differential.
Personally, I think they'll be on 170 and 169 but I've been known to be wrong, as you know.
I personally think he has to be given top weight, and he that will be given top weight.
I think he might even allow passengers on the return flight to Dublin from the weights revealing ceremony one free alcoholic drink...
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I think they know he’ll be given top weight, but it’s how much he’s compressed to those in behind.
Magic of Light for example, 158.
Would you rather be given 172 and be giving Magic of Light a stone. Or be compressed to say 167 and be giving 9 pounds, providing everything else stays similar.
Their last statement regarding the weights they was talking about how much some of the top horses had been compressed in the past.
This excerpt from Greg Wood's article in today's Guardian [online]:
I think O'Leary is wrong in his assertion - I'll check later today - as I'd have thought, off the top of my head that the 8lbs figure he claims strikes me as more of an aggregate than an average.Eddie O’Leary’s most recent, none-too-subtle nudge was to remind the handicapper that the top weight in the race has been “compressed” – or let off, in plain terms – by “8lb on average for the past 10 years”. He added: “I have a figure in my head but I’m not going to mention it. If he hits that figure, he runs, and if he doesn’t, he won’t be running.”
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I've had a look at the history of compression for the last three years. I gave up at that point as it wasn't doing anything to support O'Leary's claim.
First five top-weights (finishing order):
OR1 – before GN weights
OR2 – for GN
Year Horse OR1 OR2 Diff 2019 Tiger Roll 159 159 0 Anibale Fly 164 164 0 Outlander 159 158 -1 Valtor 160 160 0 Don Poli 157 157 0 2018 Anibale Fly 159 159 0 Valseur Lido 160 158 -2* Blaklion 161 161 0 The Last Samuri 159 159 0 2017 The Last Samuri 161 161 0 Saphir Du Rheu 156 156 0 More Of That 157 157 0 Perfect Candidate 156 156 0 Shantou Flyer 156 156 0
* you could argue that Valseur Lido’s mark was already declining as the drop continued after Aintree.
These figures tell us that there really hasn't been any compression in the weights but I then realised that maybe it was because the original top-weights opted out along the way. The only one I could think of was Bristol De Mai so I checked him:
2019 173 165 -5
I didn't have a note of the previous year's original entries but found the weights at the first declaration stage. Top weight then was Minella Rocco:
2018 162 162 0
So, on one hand, BDM was allowed 5lbs and still didn't run but he had the Gold Cup on his agenda. Minella Rocco had been leading at the last in the Irish Gold Cup when he fell yet he wasn't given any allowance.
The only big difference I can see is that BDM was rated very highly by comparison. At 172, it's possible Tiger Roll will be 'allowed' 3 or 4lbs but I can't see him being allowed any more than that. I think he won off 159 last year.
Magic Of Light should, in fairness, be allowed at least a pound relative to him to give her a fair chance. She went up 8lbs for finishing second last year to 159. If the handicapper wants to give her the same chance as Tiger Roll, he'll probably allow her a pound or two as you could argue the winner was idling late on last year, and I don't think he'll do that so I think she'll be off the same mark. That in turn would reduce TR's 'allowance'.
Either way, we'll find out tomorrow and not everybody is going to be pleased.
I would have no issue with TR getting in off 170 or 169 - there might be a psychological angle to 169 - but if the O'Leary's decide not to run him I'd say it's their loss more than anyone else's.
I hope the handicapper doesn't blink.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th February 2020 at 6:37 PM.
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Don't know why they muck about, just using the official BHA rating and be done with it.
90+% of the time they do. Usually only runners with better form over the fences than anywhere else or in the race itself, or very high class horses like Bristol De Mai are considered for special treatment. The ones with form in the race or over the fences can be given a higher mark although in the case of those who might be in danger of not making the cut it is spun as giving them a better chance of doing so. I think it was the trainer of Highland Lodge a few years back who asked for this to happen. He was rated something like 10lbs higher in the National than on park courses.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th February 2020 at 1:47 PM.
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Your 2019 figures show the actual field that ran, not the full picture Do.
When they were published Bristol De Mai was given 168....5Lb's below his official....he was pulled out compounding the compression.
Many Clouds was the only horse ever raised above his OR on the back of his Aintree form.
2017 Highland Lodge 11lb higher than elsewhere.
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Yes, I mentioned something similar a couple of posts above. I think a small number of classy types have been handicapped with the purpose of enticing them to run but haven't taken up the challenge.
But I don't really see how it compounds the compression as everything else runs off its mark.
I support compressing the handicap for such horses. A lot of them will have form around the 3m mark.
If a length at Epsom over 5f is worth 6lb and over 2m 2f at Newmarket is 1lb, it should follow that carrying two stone more over nearly twice the latter trip - and jumping 30 fences along the way - a pound for a length seems a bit much.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th February 2020 at 2:14 PM.
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Many Clouds was 'allowed' 1lb because of his rating. Went up to 167 for winning off 160, was down to 166 by next spring and got into the National off 165. Back up to 166 next time out.
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Maxbet (11th February 2020)
Weights to be announced around 3.30pm. Negotiations going on ?
Has to be top weight. Surely to god. Could they stick Native River top weight and compress him down after his win Saturday?Weights to be announced around 3.30pm. Negotiations going on ?
What a ******* palaver this all isWeights to be announced around 3.30pm. Negotiations going on ?
They said around Midday for the "Unveiling"
Summat well dodgy going on
Palaver is too polite.
You'd have to assume it's the O'Learys acting up.
If so, I'd tell them to fuckrightoff.
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Tiger Roll 170
Top weights
11-10 Tiger Roll
11-10 Delta Work
11-08 Bristol de Mai
11-06 Native River
11-02 Anibale Fly
11-02 Aso
11-02 Cadmium
11-02 Elegant Escap
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