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Last edited by luckyme; 29th January 2020 at 5:16 PM.
Tiger won’t be running.
O’Leary has a figure in his head, and if he doesn’t hit that figure he doesn’t go. Tiger will almost certainly be given top weight. Might get compressed so he loses a pound or 2 but won’t be much.
And rightly so.
I agree. Want his mark down do what everyone else does and run him in other races! Admittedly been injured till now mind.
I'm not so sure.Originally Posted by Double J
O'Leary can have all the figures in his head that he wants but there's no way Tiger Roll gets in off less than 170. There may be some slight compression of the weights - we don't know if DGH will take the same approach as Phil Smith in that regard - but he won't be asked to carry any more than 11-10 so anything rated about 145 or lower will be out of the weights and that could involve several runners.
Tiger Roll is a bit of a freak, like Red Rum, who clearly relishes the challenge in the race and would probably still be competitive off his rating.
Also, O'Leary comes across as a self-serving, greedy, ruthless, tight-fisted, narcissistic arsehole who is highly unlikely to pass up the chance to win a race worth a million pounds. He'll also probably have close to half the runners in it to stack the odds in his favour.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Difference is Mo, when Red Rum was lumping the big weight I’d guess that many of the opposition were out of the handicap.
That wont happen nowadays and as much as a freak he may be, I simply can’t see him giving weight to horses of the calibre of Native River et al
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
O’Leary would cut his own nose off to spite his own face.
If he doesn’t like Tiger on 170 plus I can almost guarantee he won’t go.
Did he not have 12 runners in it the year Rule The World won?
Last edited by Double J; 30th January 2020 at 9:29 PM.
I think O'Leary will run tiger roll. However it won't be for the opportunity to win a million pounds. It has always been for the glory. Has been obvious that they are not a gambling operation, unlike some, and for me steers clear of the narcissism attributed to him in business on the racecourse. Often going out of his way to underplay his horses' and his achievements. he has also been happy to retire horses like don cossack and rule the world when in the horses best interest rather than persisting hope against hope. And finally unlike many of nh heroes is at least a tax resident in his country. I hope he wins the million. He just likes the drama and divilment in the run up
Last edited by HawkWing; 31st January 2020 at 12:23 AM.
I'm not sure they were out of the handicap - did the weights go down to 9-7 back then? - but I'll check when I get my eyesight back. When they first met in the race, L'Escargot was trying to give Rummy 23lbs. Two years later Rummy was conceding 8lbs. To a former dual Gold Cup winner. Why wouldn't Tiger Roll be asked to give a pound or two to a one-time Gold Cup winner?
There's still only a very few horses who truly stay the National trip. A lot of potential contenders will be found out regardless of their rating.
Illegitimi non carborundum
How much will Tiger Roll be compressed for this we reckon then?
I’m going compressed 5 pounds and running off top weight 167. O’Learys will be on one even if they chucked him in at 160.
I think Tiger Roll is 1/20 to run. O'Leary is simply holding a gun to the new handicapper's head daring him to give him 170 and cost the race a 3 in a row bid. It's a classic double bluff.
Last edited by Slim; 6th February 2020 at 1:32 AM.
Could give him 160 I don’t think he’s winning, and that’s not to knock the horse. Kimberlite Candy and Cadmium my probable early picks. I’ll wait for decs and weights though.
People are certain they’ll keep him in, I’m not so sure.
Did he not withdraw half of his horses the other year cause they weren’t fairly handicapped in his opinion? Can’t be sure of the facts mind.
Here is what will happen. He will run on Sunday week in the Boyne Hurdle and will run like an unfit horse. They will cite injury setbacks and infer the horse is gone but they will consider giving him one more run at Cheltenham and rule out Aintree. The ball is in the handicappers court to entice them to run.
Can they change the weights once announced?
Weights get announced Tuesday and the Boyne Hurdle isn’t till the Sunday after.
I hadn't realised the weight were that soon! Nothing they can do so only give out!
Race conditions state no penalties after publication of the weights.
I really can't see TR getting less than a 170 mark
And he'll run.
Illegitimi non carborundum
They want 168.
170 is reasonable.
169? A pound or two either way makes no difference.
Last edited by archie; 6th February 2020 at 7:40 PM.
The older I get the better I was.
With Punchestown now not racing until Tuesday I assume their Grand National trial, due off at 4.25, is too late to be taken into consideration by Aintree handicapper as the weights are also published that day,albeit I think in the evening.
Grand National trial at Haydock Saturday.
My early fancy is Captain Chaos. Same mark as when second to Kimberlite Candy who has gone up 10lbs. Form looks good.
moehat (9th February 2020)
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