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Thread: Grand National 2020

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    Grand National 2020

    Ridiculously early to be posting this, but I’m unsure of a suitable thread.

    Michael O’Leary, Mr Happy himself, has just described Tiger Roll going here as a slim to none chance. Thinks it’s ridiculous he’s the third highest rated chaser there is, and he doesn’t care about history.
    We know he likes his dicky fits, but he tends to also be a man of his word and genuinely doesn’t care what people think or say. Be a travesty if we don’t see Tiger here.

    The only way I’d find it acceptable not seeing Tiger in the National would be if we was to go Gold Cuppin, but that’s me, not the racing public.

    Away from Tiger Roll, seems this is the target for Native River as well.

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    Tizzard could end up inadvertently saving us from that unfortunate event if, as he suggests, he ends up targeting Native River at this at the end of the season.

    O’Leary has said he won’t run Tiger Roll off 11st 10lb but after winning it last year by nearly 3 lengths off 159 the BHA will surely allot him in excess of 160 (163 ?) so were Native River’s mark of 167 to stay as it is right now (possibly unlikely I admit) then he’d keep the weight of Tiger Roll down to mid 11st.

    It’s all relative of course but O’Leary seems obsessed with the physical weight little Tiger Roll would carry however there’s also a lot of things that could change that weight allocation between now and then.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 12th November 2019 at 10:06 PM.
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    Hope Discorama rocks up
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Jockey arrangements could be controversial also should Russell continue in the bad books

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    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Jockey arrangements could be controversial also should Russell continue in the bad books
    Think he’s said Davy will ride in the very unlikely scenario we see him there. A lot can change. Perhaps he’s just leaning on the handicapper via the press.

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    I'm sure O'Leary said the same last year and reckon it's just a game of bluff with the handicapper and here's the RP story on that and the jockey situation:

    Michael O’Leary has stated that Davy Russell will ride Tiger Roll if he bids for a historic Grand National hat-trick in the spring – but it could be a big if as he described the chances of running jump racing’s most popular horse in the Aintree showpiece for a third time as between "slim and none".
    The Gigginstown House Stud chief was responding to questions after it had become apparent over the last six weeks that Russell is no longer among their favoured riders.
    While O’Leary denied there has been a rift, he accepted he has consciously been looking elsewhere while Jack Kennedy is injured, citing the three-time champion jockey’s commitments to other horses as one of the reasons for that.
    “I don't have a loyalty to any particular jockey, other than the one we prefer to use most, which is Jack and he is injured,” he said. “That’s not to say Davy won’t be riding for us again. Have I fallen out with him? No. Is he riding many of my horses? No, but there are different reasons for that.
    “The reason he wasn’t on Delta Work at Down Royal was because if he turns out to be a Gold Cup horse, Davy will be on Presenting Percy, so why would I put him on him?

    “Why wasn’t he on Abacadabras? Well, he will be on Envoi Allen in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, and when I was putting Robbie Power on him, I thought I’d put him on Apple’s Jade as well. Robbie is riding out of his skin, so why wouldn’t we use him, and if we take Robbie off Apple’s Jade for Jack, nobody bats an eyelid.
    “We put Keith Donoghue on Samcro because he is Jack’s ride, but if we put Davy on him and then take him off, it becomes a big issue because we’ve taken him off. A lot of these horses don't need Davy Russell on them.
    “We do everything we can to give every horse the best chance of winning, and I wouldn't be taking Davy off our horses if there wasn't a good reason for it. I’m not wedded to him.”
    When it was put to O’Leary that it seemed a harsh policy for a rider who had ridden the Gordon Elliott-trained Tiger Roll to two Randox Health Grand National victories for him, he responded: “Listen, the horse won two Grand Nationals, not the jockey. The horse does most of the work. Is Davy one of the best jockeys in the weighing room? Yes, he is, but there are other issues at play as well.”
    Russell’s only two bookings for Gigginstown since he rode Mengli Khan to finish ninth in the Galway Plate have come on Alpha Des Obeaux.
    The manner in which he has since been marginalised has led to speculation that there was a disagreement over tactics in the Plate, but O’Leary would not be drawn on the matter.
    He saved some of his strongest comments for the issue of Tiger Roll’s participation in the 2020 Grand National, confirming Russell would be back in the saddle should Tiger Roll attempt to become the first horse to win the race three times in a row.

    However, he then promptly reinforced sentiments expressed in the immediate aftermath of the £1 million contest this year, adding that he wasn’t trying to call the handicapper’s bluff and that the horse could even be retired after Cheltenham in March.
    “If Tiger Roll goes for the Grand National at Aintree, I would be mad to look at anyone else other than Davy to ride him,” said the outspoken Ryanair supremo. “He rides Aintree like a master, but the chances of Tiger Roll going back to Aintree are slim and none.
    “He is the fourth highest-rated staying chaser in England and Ireland, which we all know to be complete and utter horses**t.
    “Now, does he run around Aintree well? Yes, he does. Is he going to carry 11st 10lb in a Grand National, with Gold Cup seconds and thirds getting six or eight pound off him? No, he is not.
    “He will go for the cross-country race at Cheltenham and I would say there is every chance if he won that he would be retired. That’s not certain, but this is one horse I am not going to ask to carry a huge weight around Aintree.
    “And I am not trying to negotiate with the handicapper. He barely won it last year off nine pound higher, and he is not going to improve again.”

    In September, Elliott appeared to put an end to speculation by declaring that Tiger Roll’s “number one target this year will be the English National”.
    “I’ve no problem with Gordon aiming him at the race,” O’Leary said when reminded of that. “But the decision will be taken out of his hands when they release the weights in February.
    “I know it makes for a great story, that it would be wonderful if he won three Grand Nationals in a row, but wouldn’t it be terrible if he dropped dead lumping a huge weight around Aintree? I care more about looking after the horse and I am not killing him.
    “I don’t give a s***e about history. People forget I lost Hear The Echo there about 100 yards from the finish line with a massive heart attack in 2009. That comes with the territory, I am not soft and accept it happens, but I have a wife and children who are in love with this horse and I am not risking him to lump a humongous weight.”
    The Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 28 has been pencilled in for Tiger Roll’s reappearance. He is as low as 5-1 market leader to plunder a third Grand National in the spring, but O’Leary’s comments cast fresh doubt on whether he will get the opportunity to enhance his status as an equine immortal.


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    O'Leary definitely putting pressure on the handicapper with every intention of running. They've already said the Gold Cup isn't on the agenda, so there's no other target.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    O'Leary definitely putting pressure on the handicapper with every intention of running. They've already said the Gold Cup isn't on the agenda, so there's no other target.

    Handicapper should call his bluff and see O'leary enter up one of his bigger horses

    Native river will probably (all being well) assist with this matter
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Handicapper should call his bluff and see O'leary enter up one of his bigger horses

    Native river will probably (all being well) assist with this matter
    Not entirely sure how it works, but Tiger Roll is rated 172, Native River 168 I think. So Tiger would still be top weight I believe unless I’m wrong. Think that’s what O’Leary is trying to point out. Tiger would be giving Native River 4 pounds.

    Only way he won’t be is if we see Al Boum Photo or Kemboy. I think. Someone with more knowledge may be better to answer than me
    Last edited by Double J; 13th November 2019 at 1:52 PM.

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    Native River 167 and Tiger Roll will carry top weight. Nothing O'Leary can do about it because Tiger Roll has his mark on merit. Crying and whinging won't change that. I would't put it past O'Leary to enter his top 40 rated horses to turn it into a Giggi National though! I reckon from normal entries he could feasibly have more than half the field running for him.

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    Cheering home Kimberlite Candy in Warwick's Classic Chase today I was almost as pleased to see Le Breuil making up ground to finish fifth fifth. The further the better for him and my 40/1 Grand National voucher seems just a little warmer this evening.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrianH View Post
    Cheering home Kimberlite Candy in Warwick's Classic Chase today I was almost as pleased to see Le Breuil making up ground to finish fifth fifth. The further the better for him and my 40/1 Grand National voucher seems just a little warmer this evening.
    I've been backing him to small amounts since Becher run and Pauling confirmed National as main target for the season.

    365 pushed him out to 50s after yesterday's run so quite happy to go in again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrianH View Post
    Cheering home Kimberlite Candy in Warwick's Classic Chase today I was almost as pleased to see Le Breuil making up ground to finish fifth fifth. The further the better for him and my 40/1 Grand National voucher seems just a little warmer this evening.
    I've been backing him to small amounts since Becher run and Pauling confirmed National as main target for the season.

    365 pushed him out to 50s after yesterday's run so quite happy to go in again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrianH View Post
    Cheering home Kimberlite Candy in Warwick's Classic Chase today I was almost as pleased to see Le Breuil making up ground to finish fifth fifth. The further the better for him and my 40/1 Grand National voucher seems just a little warmer this evening.
    Did he genuinely make up ground, Brian, or was he just passing horses that were stopping?

    The immediate post-race feedback to the ITV team was that nothing went right for him through the race although, having backed him, I was watching him and I don't think he did too much wrong. I thought he jumped very tidily.

    I've mentioned more than once my dissatisfaction that the TV people don't seem to understand the importance of waiting until the ones that are finishing in a meaningful position pass the post. Form students need to know relative finishing distances. I heard the commentator mention Le Breuil staying on (into 5th, was it?) but it still looked a long way behind the others. I'll try and watch the race again today and get a better idea of how far behind the second it was at the line compared with turning for home. I suspect it didn't make up much ground, if any.

    However, if the connections were eager to get out 'excuses' then maybe a wee ante-post pop might be in order.
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    That looks slightly up on last year (100?)
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    112 last year

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    Kimberlite Candy interests me but that’s an obvious one. I’ll try find a darkie nearer the time

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    I surprised that Rathvinden isn't entered. Has he been injured?

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    Refusing to come out of his box in case Patrick has his whip

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