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Thread: Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyB View Post
    Playing Devils advocate here, but Elliott sent Samcro to the Ballymore & a few decent ones to it this year.
    They ran Samcro over 2.5 pre Christmas mind.

    Not sure they'll get a chance to step Envoi up as presume he will do the Leopardstown double pre March

    For the record i think the Ballymore is the ideal race but the Supreme is probable
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    I think that Envoi Allen will go for the Ballymore and start odds on.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Paddy power seem to think they know something, in terms of target race...... They have Envoi Allen shortest for Ballymore at 7/4 and they're also easily the biggest on him for the supreme at 9/2. Other UK books have him as short as 5/2 for the supreme.

    If Ireland's "Biggest" bookie is leaning this way, that must be the word on the street.... Again, I'm definitely extremely biassed in reading into it this way, as I have strong positions on Abacadabras from 20/1 to 14/1 for the Supreme. Abacadabras best price 6/1 for the Supreme after Andy Dufresne's defeat today.

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    Belting race tomorrow at Ascot.

    Ribble Valley
    Mcfabulous
    Master Debonair
    Time Flies By

    Can see arguments for and against all of them, which doesn’t strike me as a betting proposition. Personally like Ribble Valley a lot, but won’t be getting involved at them prices. Mcfabulous is a lot bigger than I thought. Will watch with interest.

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    Maybe the races werent top class but Fury Road and Abacradabras both mightily impressive with unlimited potential to the eye.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Envoi did what he needed to, plenty of petrol left in the tank.
    Think reading between the lines from Elliott's comments post race, it seems he'll go Ballymore.

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    Where do we think Thyme Hill goes?

    I’ve invested in both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett with a view of cashing out for profit later on. This has now come to fruition, just don’t know which one to cash.
    Last edited by Double J; 5th January 2020 at 8:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Where do we think Thyme Hill goes?

    I’ve invested in both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett with a view of cashing out for profit later on. This has now come to fruition, just don’t know which one to cash.
    I would have said Ballymore up until recently, but you'd have to think there'll be an "avoid Envoi Allen" clause in most other trainers thoughts now. (Trainers with high profile potential festival winning novice hurdlers anyway).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Where do we think Thyme Hill goes?

    I’ve invested in both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett with a view of cashing out for profit later on. This has now come to fruition, just don’t know which one to cash.
    I'd quite confidently predict Albert Bartlett unless v soft.

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    I'm not getting carried away with Envoi as hopefully his best is still to come

    It is very unusual to see what you know will be a staying chaser answer so many questions over hurdles and over minimum trips
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    How could one not get carried away by Envoi Allen? He's done everything asked of him and his form his beyond reproach. With the exception of his seriously impressive stablemate Easywork, every strand of decent Irish novice form leads to Envoi and even the collateral handicap form is putting him at a very healthy standard for a novice.

    Not sure that we know he will be a staying chaser. His sire line is definitely stout but not overtly ploddy and he does share a great granddam with Espoir d'Allen. There's no reason why he can't produce top class form over two and three in time...

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    Simply by comparing him to horses that have gone before him over the years

    Plenty of bubbles have burst
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Very true and it is that which makes him particularly exciting for me as I am generally quite standoffish when it comes to horsey hype.

    His bubble may very well burst but there have also been plenty of bubbles have remained intact and grown. Indeed, many of the greats had serious reputations as novices and other than him possibly being precocious (for a jumper), I see no reason why he couldn't become top class in the championship divisions.

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    Yes.certainly hope so and he could be the gateway horse to tempt the owners into becoming larger scale mass owners
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bachelors Hall View Post
    How could one not get carried away by Envoi Allen? He's done everything asked of him and his form his beyond reproach. With the exception of his seriously impressive stablemate Easywork, every strand of decent Irish novice form leads to Envoi and even the collateral handicap form is putting him at a very healthy standard for a novice.

    Not sure that we know he will be a staying chaser. His sire line is definitely stout but not overtly ploddy and he does share a great granddam with Espoir d'Allen. There's no reason why he can't produce top class form over two and three in time...
    Kevin Blake hasn't succumbed to the hype.
    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/the-flip-side

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    Bachelors Hall (9th January 2020)

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    Looks tailor-made for the Ryanair in a couple of years.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Kevin Blake hasn't succumbed to the hype.
    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/the-flip-side
    He only really makes two and a half arguments, none of which I find particularly compelling;-

    1) He hasn't faced traffic problems.
    Nor would most other horses who typically race prominently. Furthermore, traffic problems aren't usually an issue in championship class jumps races due to the smaller field sizes and the tendency for dead wood to either drop away early or be ridden patiently.

    1.5) He has shown hints of temperament
    As have the majority of novice hurdlers and bumper horses. He has also shown more than a hint of battling ability.

    2) has yet to produce a performance that screams superstar
    I don't think anybody is calling him a superstar just yet. But his profile is full value for a 150+ mark which befits one with his exciting potential. Generally speaking with hype horses, they've mostly beaten trees but it is very difficult to poke holes in the quality of his form. Looking at his efforts in pattern races;-

    Navan Bumper
    2nd (4.75 comfortable lengths) - Midnight Run - Convincing winner of a bumper containing Column of Fire (since 3rd to Elixir d'Ainay and 2nd to Longhouse Poet) and Easywork (won all three subsequent starts and prominent in any novice market for the festival)
    3rd (another 5 lengths) - Run Wild Fred - Won three subsequent races including one from Fiddlerontheroof

    Leopardstown Bumper
    2nd - Meticulous - 8th in bumper sole subsequent start
    3rd - Embittered - Won 25 runner Naas maiden hurdle, three defeats all in Grade One company
    4th - Beacon Edge - 3rd in Punchestown G1 Bumper, won 19 runner Punchestown maiden
    5th - Mt Leinster - 2nd then 7th in festival bumpers at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, 1½l 2nd to Easywork at Gowran before winning 18 runner maiden on boxing day.
    6th - Run Wild Fred - see above

    Cheltenham Bumper
    2nd - Blue Sari - won 22 runner Punchestown maiden, too bad to be true in G1
    3rd - Thyne Hill - won Persian War from Fiddlerontheroof, won Hyde Novices' from Champagne Well and Happygolucky (both placed in G2s), won G1 Challow.
    4th - Abacadabras - 2nd Punchestown Bumper, won For Auction from Latest Exhibition by three easy lengths, 2nd to Envoi Allen, won Future Champions by eight lengths
    5th - The Glancing Queen - won Aintree Bumper sole subsequent start from Minella Melody (listed winner at Punchestown) and Daylight Katie (G3 winner from Jeremys Flame)

    Royal Bond
    2nd - Abacadabras - see above
    3rd - Carver Star - came into race on back of four wins on the bounce including a listed race and a handicap off 133 by five comfortable lengths
    4th - Turnpike Trip - three wins and a second over hurdles beforehand, subsequently fourth in competitive Ascot handicap off 146
    5th - Embittered - see above

    Naas Novice
    2nd - Elixir d'Ainay - sole Mullins representative, won 16 runner Naas maiden from Longhouse Poet and Column Of Fire
    3rd - Longhouse Poet - won 25 runner Navan maiden

    Save for winning every single race on the bridle by a distance, what else could Envoi Allen have done at this stage? Again, I will not suggest that he will be the next superstar but it is very difficult to crab what he has achieved thus far without resorting to tenuousness. Every Grade One and Grade Two novice hurdle in Britain and Ireland has either been taken by Envoi Allen, a horse beaten by Envoi Allen, or through Envoi Allen on collateral form. There have been hype horses in the past, including many whose reputation is based on homework and a solitary maiden win. But I would be interested to see how many of them had form this solid at this stage before having their bubbles emphatically burst.

  19. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Looks tailor-made for the Ryanair in a couple of years.
    Behave yourself!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bachelors Hall View Post
    He only really makes two and a half arguments, none of which I find particularly compelling;-

    1) He hasn't faced traffic problems.
    Nor would most other horses who typically race prominently. Furthermore, traffic problems aren't usually an issue in championship class jumps races due to the smaller field sizes and the tendency for dead wood to either drop away early or be ridden patiently.

    1.5) He has shown hints of temperament
    As have the majority of novice hurdlers and bumper horses. He has also shown more than a hint of battling ability.

    2) has yet to produce a performance that screams superstar
    I don't think anybody is calling him a superstar just yet. But his profile is full value for a 150+ mark which befits one with his exciting potential. Generally speaking with hype horses, they've mostly beaten trees but it is very difficult to poke holes in the quality of his form. Looking at his efforts in pattern races;-

    Navan Bumper
    2nd (4.75 comfortable lengths) - Midnight Run - Convincing winner of a bumper containing Column of Fire (since 3rd to Elixir d'Ainay and 2nd to Longhouse Poet) and Easywork (won all three subsequent starts and prominent in any novice market for the festival)
    3rd (another 5 lengths) - Run Wild Fred - Won three subsequent races including one from Fiddlerontheroof

    Leopardstown Bumper
    2nd - Meticulous - 8th in bumper sole subsequent start
    3rd - Embittered - Won 25 runner Naas maiden hurdle, three defeats all in Grade One company
    4th - Beacon Edge - 3rd in Punchestown G1 Bumper, won 19 runner Punchestown maiden
    5th - Mt Leinster - 2nd then 7th in festival bumpers at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, 1½l 2nd to Easywork at Gowran before winning 18 runner maiden on boxing day.
    6th - Run Wild Fred - see above

    Cheltenham Bumper
    2nd - Blue Sari - won 22 runner Punchestown maiden, too bad to be true in G1
    3rd - Thyne Hill - won Persian War from Fiddlerontheroof, won Hyde Novices' from Champagne Well and Happygolucky (both placed in G2s), won G1 Challow.
    4th - Abacadabras - 2nd Punchestown Bumper, won For Auction from Latest Exhibition by three easy lengths, 2nd to Envoi Allen, won Future Champions by eight lengths
    5th - The Glancing Queen - won Aintree Bumper sole subsequent start from Minella Melody (listed winner at Punchestown) and Daylight Katie (G3 winner from Jeremys Flame)

    Royal Bond
    2nd - Abacadabras - see above
    3rd - Carver Star - came into race on back of four wins on the bounce including a listed race and a handicap off 133 by five comfortable lengths
    4th - Turnpike Trip - three wins and a second over hurdles beforehand, subsequently fourth in competitive Ascot handicap off 146
    5th - Embittered - see above

    Naas Novice
    2nd - Elixir d'Ainay - sole Mullins representative, won 16 runner Naas maiden from Longhouse Poet and Column Of Fire
    3rd - Longhouse Poet - won 25 runner Navan maiden

    Save for winning every single race on the bridle by a distance, what else could Envoi Allen have done at this stage? Again, I will not suggest that he will be the next superstar but it is very difficult to crab what he has achieved thus far without resorting to tenuousness. Every Grade One and Grade Two novice hurdle in Britain and Ireland has either been taken by Envoi Allen, a horse beaten by Envoi Allen, or through Envoi Allen on collateral form. There have been hype horses in the past, including many whose reputation is based on homework and a solitary maiden win. But I would be interested to see how many of them had form this solid at this stage before having their bubbles emphatically burst.
    Its a far cry from Sweet Wake, and I don't think he is a ridiculous price for Cheltenham.

    However, there are some that would lead you to believe that the Champion is his for the taking. Think the point is that he was 1/4 to win at Naas. He was expected to win comfortably and if anything didnt quite win like a 1/4 shot, yet in its aftermath it was talked about by some as if he was unbeatable.

  21. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Its a far cry from Sweet Wake, and I don't think he is a ridiculous price for Cheltenham.

    However, there are some that would lead you to believe that the Champion is his for the taking. Think the point is that he was 1/4 to win at Naas. He was expected to win comfortably and if anything didnt quite win like a 1/4 shot, yet in its aftermath it was talked about by some as if he was unbeatable.
    Hope he does run in the Champion, as does Honeysuckle, makes everything else a better price. Neither win it.

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