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Thread: The Arc 2019 discussion thread

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    The Arc 2019 discussion thread

    Enable is a mare of the highest calibre; according to Oisin Murphy the best since Frankel.

    I've no problem with her winning, winning it again next year, the year after; even being the greatest horse of all time for that matter.

    But...err... Waldgiest at 16/1, really?

    This has strong each way claims.

    He gave Enable three pounds at Ascot, was only beaten under two lengths, staying on well in third place.

    Enable, Crystal Ocean and Waldgiest pulled miles clear of the fourth.

    I reckon Waldgiest has a solid profile. While it's not essential, if rain arrived it would help him more.

    He's best after an absence, (gaps of a few months, as opposed to years off the track), so if they rest him until early October, I can't see why he can't finish in the first three.

    Enable is a great thing, but Waldgiest looks a class each way bet.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2019 at 8:56 PM.

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    Is Crystal Ocean a good thing in the Juddmonte then?

    There's three quality horses in opposition, King Of Comedy, Elarqam and Circus Maximus, none of whom are currently likely to run in the Arc.

    Maybe Crystal Ocean did actually have a very hard race the last day?

    If he gets beat everything else will shorten up a bit including Waldgeist - So the time to commit on Waldgeist may be near.

    If Crystal Ocean wins as expected Waldgeist's price probably won't change. It's a win-win. Time to back him now.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th August 2019 at 6:22 PM.

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    I'm not sure I follow your logic here. If crystal ocean wins, waldgeist stays the same price but if he loses he shortens?

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    Quote Originally Posted by simmo View Post
    I'm not sure I follow your logic here. If crystal ocean wins, waldgeist stays the same price but if he loses he shortens?
    With Crystal Ocean's three main rivals on Wednesday not Arc horses...this definately supports my overall argument. Crystal Ocean either holds his position in the betting market by winning or gets beat in which case he has no chance in the Arc and the others are bigger dangers to Enable.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th August 2019 at 6:35 PM.

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    I'd have thought that a crystal ocean win shortens all of those associated with him personally.

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    By 'all those', do you mean Enable and Waldgeist?

    Thats a fair point actually. I hadn't considered that angle.

    For purely selfish reasons I'd rather Crystal Ocean got beat and that would be one less serious contender to worry about for mine.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th August 2019 at 9:21 PM.

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Yeah, they were the ones I was thinking of. A CO win makes them all look good, especially Enable.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Of the big three I prefer Waldgeist as at least he's been given a break after the KG.CO and Enable running at Ascot and York is a negative imo. The latter obviously overcame this two years ago but she had the excessive allowances then (age excessive not sex)

    Siyarafina might be interesting at 33s. 3yo filly, shithouse ride in the Diane. Likely takes in the Vermeille.

    Magical isn't a terrible price but might lengthen after the Yorskshire Oaks. Remember Found used that race as a tune up the year she won

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    Waldgeist now 20 on the machine -the idea that he is going to shorten all the way to the day of the race is flawed.

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    I didn't imply he would. I said he's a solid choice at the moment.

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    Other market leaders may drift - That's my point.

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    Ballydoyle have high hopes for Japan methinks.
    They will try ensure Enable gets roughed up in Yorkshire Oaks if possible and could well field every available 12 furlong horse to get one up on her, her scalp would make any stallion page.

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    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Enabke is a steering job again surely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    Waldgeist now 20 on the machine -the idea that he is going to shorten all the way to the day of the race is flawed.
    Into 14's today with five firms, there's only a couple left going 16's.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th August 2019 at 6:47 PM.

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    Still 20 on the machine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Enabke is a steering job again surely.
    Not for me. I like my Arc runners to have a mid season break. Optimal is a 3yo who has such a gap and has the wfa (only because the scale is too generous for 3yos this time of year over 12f). So, she overcame not having a break in 2017 because she was already top class and had all the allowances. Last year she only just won but was relatively fresh. This year she's taken in the KG (always a neg for older horses) and went to York. It's a shame Waldgeist ran at Ascot but at least he's been kept quiet since then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Not for me. I like my Arc runners to have a mid season break. Optimal is a 3yo who has such a gap and has the wfa (only because the scale is too generous for 3yos this time of year over 12f). So, she overcame not having a break in 2017 because she was already top class and had all the allowances. Last year she only just won but was relatively fresh. This year she's taken in the KG (always a neg for older horses) and went to York. It's a shame Waldgeist ran at Ascot but at least he's been kept quiet since then.
    sottsass?

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesRB View Post
    sottsass?
    Hopefully he improves again for going up in trip.

    Winner.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Sire a neg in terms of him getting 12

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    Ghaiyyath, impressive winner of Baden Baden group one today was bred by Dermot Weld, the dam a 1000 Gns for him after winning a Cork maiden in his mother's colours.
    He was at Cork today watching the race with great interest in the Paddy Power shop.
    it so happens his greatest remaining ambition is to win the Arc, possibly only matched by the Champion Hurdle.
    Wouldn't it be something if he bred the winner rather than trained it ?
    He was awarded a Veterinary Sporting Hall Of Fame award this summer from UCD Vet college so I congratulated him on both.
    Speaking to him after the race he was generous enough to answer any question I had for him
    I asked him the question that has bothered me for 10 years; what went through his head when Dunguib came upsides his Rite Of Passage in the Cheltenham Bumper.
    " I could not believe my eyes " was his reply " Mind you , the winner must have had more powering him than mine had, but none the less I thought no horse could do that to mine !"
    Last edited by edgt; 1st September 2019 at 10:57 PM.

  21. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to edgt For This Useful Post:

    Eleanora Duse (1st September 2019), jinnyj (2nd September 2019), LUKE (1st September 2019), Marb (2nd September 2019), moehat (2nd September 2019), redundant pal (1st September 2019)

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