The Derby

[Flaggers]

I couldn't see a thread for this so apologies if I have missed it.

I listened to the RP Podcast yesterday and the Paddy Power guy said that when he spoke to someone in the Ballydoyle team, they were very keen on Sir Draconet after he had done some serious work in the past week. I still find this amazing; yes he was impressive but they can't have thought that much of him a month ago!

I took 13/2 about Anthony Van Dyck yesterday, I cannot see him not hitting the frame, and I was very impressed with him at Lingfield on ground that he would not have favoured! (Yes, I know that no horse has won the Lingfield trial and then the Derby for over 20 years but.....) My only slight worry is ending up with Seamie rather than Ryan or mainly Donnacha.

[Tanlic]

I just look at the cards daily and see hundreds of horses I have never heard of running in huge fields you need to be f*cking mad to back in.

The Derby don't exactly get the blood flowing

Living here I should just throw some money at Bangkok and Silvestre De Sousa but maybe come Saturday something might actually do something special.

It certainly won't be the Chester Vase winner Dragonet. Totally unfancied he did win but the race looked crap

Too Darn Hot was being touted as the next coming until Telecaster put him firmly in his place

So they blamed the trip run him at a mile and to me that was an over reaction

He finished 4 lengths ahead of the 3rd Surman who is well thought off but when the hotpot gets beat the blame is often misdirected.

Telecaster looks the real deal in what looks a no more than average Derby and taken to reverse placing with his old rival Bangkok

[Outsider]

Give me a nice juicy hcap anyday.

[reet hard]

Normally love the Dante as a Derby Guide, but wouldn't back Telecaster with wooden money - looks more a Leger type to me.
Think Sir Dragonet surprised the Coolmore crew and they've stumped up the ante for him to confirm that form. Pretty confident RM will ride,and backed the horse accordingly.

[jinnyj]

I too think SD surprised his connections. And sometimes horses can do that. You’re galloping a big, immature 3yo colt and it’s just going through the motions at home. No sign of anything out of the ordinary. He goes to the races, is green, wins but is still a bit clueless. Off to a much more demanding track like Chester and he struggles early on because quite frankly he’s still not sure. Then the penny suddenly drops mid race. And then he wakes up.

I remember galloping a big fat 2yo colt in the mornings at Santa Anita. Everyone laughed at me as I used to have to sit down in the saddle and kick just to raise a normal canter. The guys on the starting stalls nicknamed him the Pork Chop and would wave as we waddled past every day. But I used to tell them I’d have the last laugh. I just got a spark of something from him and I knew he’d be ok. And then we started to breeze him. And he started to wake up. (And they took me off him as I was a girl! I left not long after but he went on to win over $1m and is the only horse to win 3 SAN Bernardino Handicaps in a row. He’s even got a Wikipedia page! (He was called Delmar Dennis) But my point is that horses can be just that. Seemingly useless at home and aren’t even considered by the trainer.

[Desert Orchid]

I was told yesterday that Kevin Blake has said he isn't keen on SD based on the track, likely going and the horse's action. Anyone else see/read what he wrote/said and where?

I haven't looked at the race yet. I'll decide on the day but as the years go on I find I'm less taken by the race.

[wilsonl]

Race has very little appeal to me and while time may show there’s a decent European 3yo middle distance colt out there I’m struggling to see where from.

If I had to bet on it now I’d back Telecaster and probably will nearer the day as I’ll be there but I’ve not much enthusiasm from the entries.

[wilsonl]

I was told yesterday that Kevin Blake has said he isn't keen on SD based on the track, likely going and the horse's action. Anyone else see/read what he wrote/said and where?

I haven't looked at the race yet. I'll decide on the day but as the years go on I find I'm less taken by the race.

Segal was very against his action on a RP podcast a couple of weeks back too.

[jinnyj]

Looks fine to me. He looks a pretty well balanced horse. If they let me have a spin on him I could tell you but I guess that’s unlikely!

[Desert Orchid]

Their loss, jinnyj, their loss...

[Outsider]

I dont have much idea but I've doneJapan

[reet hard]

Can see where fast ground may prove a problem for SD, but he looked a beautiful mover at Chester and his pedigree is stuffed with Epsom form.

[jinnyj]

I watched a video of each one last night and keep coming back to SD. I just loved everything about him. I was drawn to him before the race on looks anyway and kept thinking during it, oh he's not much cop. But Donnacha gives him a lovely ride to educate him, exactly what was required.
I liked Japan on pedigree. His half brother was Sir Isaac Newton who I saw sold as a yearling and loved. My only reservation is that he looked quite small when I watched his video.

[Desert Orchid]

My only reservation is that he looked quite small when I watched his video.

As I keep having to remind myself, you don't have to be big to be good.

[an capall]

I dont have much idea but I've doneJapan

Wise.

[Desert Orchid]

Apparently, according to my brother, I backed something last autumn for this race. He's pretty adamant it was Japan at some stupid price (50/1?) but it's too far back for the online account search facility to list and I don't want to spend ages phoning round.

I usually keep a note of ante-post bets but for some reason (probably because I didn't have many a/p bets last year - there are only 5 in the 2017 list) don't have a list for last season.

There's a lesson to be learned here...

[luckyme]

No Epsom thread, so will bang them these up here.


First the Derby,

Past Epsom Derby Winners
2018 – Masar (16/1)
2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends
16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Favourites that were placed
11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/17 – Had won a Group One before
8/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Won by the favourite
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
5/17 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/17 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/17 – Won over 1m4f before
0/17 – Run at the course before
0/17 – Winners from stall 1

The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017

Epsom Horse Racing Trends
Friday 31st May 2019
2.00 – Investec WOODCOTE EBF STAKES (Conditions Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV
17/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
16/17 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
14/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs
13/17 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/17 – Yet to win over 6f
8/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
9 of the last 11 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 5 or lower, then Oh Purple Reign and Misty Grey have this to overcome. However, the Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon yards do have cracking records in this race so the two mentioned can’t be overlooked – between them, they’ve won 8 of the last 17 runnings of this race. With a 46% record with his 2 year-olds at the track then Johnston’s Misty Grey looks a big player. Dragon Command took a step forward last time out with an improved second, while recent winners Dancinginthewoods and Rayong made promising starts to their careers. However, the call here is PINATUBO, from the Charlie Appleby yard, This March-born 2 year-old was an easy winner on debut at Wolverhampton three weeks ago and should have more to offer. He holds a Group Two entry in Ireland in June so is clearly well thought of and the Appleby yard are 2 from 6 (33%) with their 2 year-olds at the track.



2.35 – Investec CLICK & INVEST Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 114y
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won between 2-5 times before
11/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed last time out
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Carried 9-1 or more
7/16 – Raced at the track before
4/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
9 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: A good race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years – with two wins. He runs Masham Star and Rufus King, who both look to have leading chances. 11 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or lower, so that’s a plus for Seniority, Ghayadh, Nicklaus, Firmament, Hors De Combat, Wahash, Rufus King and History Writer. Recent winners Gossiping and Greenside will be popular, but this looks harder and they will have to defy rises in the ratings again here. 4 and 5 year-olds have the best recent record too – with 81% of the last 16 wins, so with that coupled with the good Mark Johnston record I’m happy to stick with MASHAM STAR (e/w) and RUFUS KING (e/w) here. Masham Star will need to overcome draw 14 but he heads here in great form after a close second at Chester earlier this month and Silvestre de Sousa booked to ride is a plus. Rufus King has a better draw in 7, and is another that comes here in good order after a close third at HQ last time. He’s a pound lower for that and looks worth another crack over this slightly longer trip. Of the rest, the Haggas-trained pair – Nicklaus and Seniority – are both respected, especially the last-named with Ryan Moore riding for the Queen.



3.10 – INVESTEC CORONATION CUP (Group 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV
17/17 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
16/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
11/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (four won)
8/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)
7/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Had run at Epsom before
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/4

TQ VERDICT: Old Persian, Lah Ti Dar and Salouen certainly have the form to play big parts here. Old Persian is the top-rated in the field and heads here on a three-timer after wins over at Meydan. The Gosden-trained Lah Ti Dar gets a handy 3lbs from the others being a filly but she was made to pull out all the stops last time at York and has been beaten both times she’s contested Group Ones – that would be a worry. Salouen beat What About Carlo by an easy 7 lengths last time out at Ascot and wasn’t beaten far (6th) in the Arc last season. He can go well but with just one win from his last 15 isn’t an easy horse to win with. Of those at bigger prices, Communique, Defoe, Morando and Coronet can have cases made for them, but with a top record in the race it’s hard to get away from the Aidan O’Brien runner – KEW GARDENS. This 4 year-old has 8 lengths to find with Morando, after running below-par at Chester last time, but that was his first run back for almost 7 months so can be expected have come on for it, plus the tight turns of Chester might not have been up his street. Yes, he was down the field in the Derby last season but at least he’s tasted the track before. We know he stays further too after winning the St Leger last season so connections are sure to make full use of that proven stamina.



3.45 – Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/16 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
12/16 – Came from stall 9 or lower
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Rated between 86-98
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
6/16 – Had raced at the track before
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: Another good race for those aged 4 or 5 years-old – so of the 11 runners that’s good news for 8, with What About Carlo, Lorelina and Lawmaking the ones falling down. The Jamie Spencer-ridden Jazeel is certainly one to note after a good second last time out at HQ – he was a neck behind another of today’s runners – Elector – but is slightly better off this time. Godolphin’s Setting Sail and the consistent Borodin are others to consider but I was impressed with the recent course and distance scorer – MOUNTAIN ANGEL – who won well here last month. The Roger Varian runner is only up 3lbs for that success, while the yard boasts a decent 33% strike-rate with their runners at the track. We can also expect the horse to have improved for that run – being it came off a 193-day break.



4.30 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f
17/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
14/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/17 – Favourites that were placed
9/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
4/17 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
2/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/17 – Had run at the course before
0/17 – Had run over 1m4f before
7 of the last 12 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 12/1

Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 15 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be eyeing up another Epsom Oaks win – he’s won it seven times in total. He’s got four in the field but his Pink Dogwood is their main hope. This 3 year-old has been all the rage for this after her easy Listed win at Navan last time out and now stepping up in trip looks sure to progress again. Breeding suggests he wants this trip and it will be a shock if he’s not involved. However, there looks to be some strong opposition too. The Haggas runner Maqsad was an easy winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at HQ last time over 1m2f and can go well if getting the longer trip, while the Gosden yard have a good shout too with Anapurna and MEHDAAYIH in the race. The former landed the Oaks trial at Lingfield by an easy 6 lengths and based on that will be popular. However, I was more taken with the manner of Mehdaayih’s win at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks. She travelled well that day and showed a good turn-of-foot to win by just over 4 lengths and should have more to come. She showed that day she can handle a unique track and is also one of the few in the race that is proven over this sort of trip – that win was over 1m3 1/2 f. Of the rest, you can’t totally rule out the other O’Brien runners – Peach Tree, Fleeting and Delphina – as they’ve won this race with big-priced runners in the past. Manuela De Vega is another to consider as she comes from the Beckett yard that have done well in the race in recent years too. While it’s interesting that the shrewd Dermot Weld yard send over TARBAWA (e/w). She’s won two of her last three races and could have more to offer now upped in trip. She was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Pink Dogwood two runs ago but looks to have improved from that after winning well at Naas since. She’s a much bigger price and actually doesn’t have much to find on the official ratings with the main players.

[Desert Orchid]

I'm not a stats person, luckyme, but the input is appreciated.

Is it your own work?

[luckyme]

No DC, copied from another site.

[Tanlic]

At least you are posting bad day in hell when The Masham Star thread. gets 4 times the amount of post that the UK's number one flat race........roll on Cheltenham