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Thread: 2,000 guineas 2019

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    2,000 guineas 2019

    The first Classic of the season, and deserving a thread of its own.
    An open looking race, which promises to be more about quantity than quality.
    My viewof the market principals;
    Ten Sovereigns
    Unbeaten in 3 races including the gp1 Middle Park , but all at 6f. Given a field of 17 over 2f further, Coolmore look unlikely to be able to boss the pace and unlikely to stay the trip in the circumstances.

    Magna Grecia
    Just prevailed in the 1m gp1 Futurity, which is often a race for horse needing further, and his previous 2nd in the Autumn Stakes indicates that might well be the case. Not out this, nevertheless, and not hard to see him performing the better of the AOB pair.

    Madhmoon

    Easy winner of the 1m gp2 Juvenile Stakes, on fastground at Leopardstown, a promising enough run to indicate the world could be his oyster. Just beaten in the Guineas trial at the same track on his seasonal re-introduction, but the manner he was ridden, over unsuitable ground and distance, shouts out that run was no more than a looksee.

    Skardu

    Unbeaten in 2 runs, including the gp3 Craven over this c/d, but probably fortunate to prevail, and could prove to be anything.

    Advertise

    Sprint bred; Won 6f gp1 Phoenix and subsequently 2nd in the Dewhurst, but unlikely to last home here, and his price probably owes more to the jockey booking than it does to his actual form.

    Royal Marine

    Won 1m gp1 Lagardere at Longchamp and, though he got no sort of a run in the Craven and ought to reverse that form with Skardu, has yet to prove he's really up to this level.

    Summary: Madhmoon the likeliest winner, though he has a tricky draw, out on the flank.
    Last edited by reet hard; 3rd May 2019 at 9:17 AM.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Madhmoon and Magna for me but obv a super tricky race.


    What do you make of the Palace House. Mabs Cross has an anchor of a penalty and not sure what to make of SP - don't really like 3yos for this.

    I'm considering Equilateral who showed plenty of pace in the Abernant, maybe too much, and didn't quite get home. 5f/good ground might be the making of him.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    When I did my figures for the race the other day I found myself underwhelmed by the quality likely to be on offer.

    I agree about Ten Sovereigns at the trip but not so sure about Advertise (which I've backed). The trainer says Murphy said it was going on strong at the end of the Dewhurst so I'd be hopeful about it. At OR 113 Magna Grecia hardly screams G1 and this trip will be a bare minimum for him but he might just be good enough to win a bad race by default.

    I haven't finalised my thoughts yet but I'll probably follow the Godophin money with Al Hilalee in the belief that they've come to the same conclusion about the quality of the race and the presumption that he's better than the 113-rated Royal Marine.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 3rd May 2019 at 10:22 AM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Madhmoon and Magna for me but obv a super tricky race.


    What do you make of the Palace House. Mabs Cross has an anchor of a penalty and not sure what to make of SP - don't really like 3yos for this.

    I'm considering Equilateral who showed plenty of pace in the Abernant, maybe too much, and didn't quite get home. 5f/good ground might be the making of him.
    A barge pole race for me.
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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    I've gone for advertise and madhmoon with £2 on king of chance as my outsider.

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    Sticking with Ten Sovereigns who I backed after his debut. Stunning looking horse (IMO) and possibly stamina issues not so clear cut as there seems to be enough 10f form in his dams line. Also physically he doesn’t strike as the obvious sprinter type.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Magna will win this by three lengths. Madhmoon will chase him him forlornly.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Madhmoon and Magna for me but obv a super tricky race.


    What do you make of the Palace House. Mabs Cross has an anchor of a penalty and not sure what to make of SP - don't really like 3yos for this.

    I'm considering Equilateral who showed plenty of pace in the Abernant, maybe too much, and didn't quite get home. 5f/good ground might be the making of him.
    Think SP probably has bigger fisn to fry, and can't see him up for this.
    Have backed Queen Of Desire (ew 14/1) as they think she'll improve for her fto Lstd win, and Danny Tudhope travels to take the ride.

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    Magna is considered by Coolmore as their 2000 Gns hope, or they did so Easter weekend.
    Would love to see Madhmoon do it for Kevin P 42 years after Nebiollo, surely a record in longevity given his first Classic winner Pidget was in 1972.

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    It would indeed be great to see Madhmoon do it. A few of us were at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes day when he won very nicely. Afterwards we discussed whether we would put him away for the season or go for one of the Gr1 end of season races. He's not especially big, and I thought connections should make hay while their horse was still competitive. I hope I was wrong and that patience will be rewarded.

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    I'll take Great Scot to out run its odds.

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    Not sure you can pick too many holes in Advertise’s form. Beaten by TDH in the best 2year old race for the guineas and Calyx in the Coventry. Frankie is a bonus. As is the draw and the ground. Question is whether he has trained on, I hope so.

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    Dark Vision seems a monster price at 66/1 with Bet365 (4 places). 50/1 with firms paying 5 places. Obviously the run at Doncaster in September has to be forgiven but he may have been over the top by then. More promising at Chelmsford last time and a fair chance he’ll outrun these odds.


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Dark Vision seems a monster price at 66/1 with Bet365 (4 places). 50/1 with firms paying 5 places. Obviously the run at Doncaster in September has to be forgiven but he may have been over the top by then. More promising at Chelmsford last time and a fair chance he’ll outrun these odds.
    I have a healthy respect for Dark Vision too but given that Godolphin have taken him over this season, keep him in the race alongside Royal Marine yet still opted to supplement Al Hilalee makes me believe this one must have been doing something pretty spectacular at home.

    As rich as they are, Godolphin aren't given to throwing away money on a whim. I can't help thinking they expect to at least recoup some of the outlay.

    I'm also tempted to have an ante-post pop on AH for the Derby.
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    Great that the elite beasts are back. The return of Calyx in the week gets the juices flowing for the season ahead.

    Hard to argue with what has been said with the ones at the head of the market here for the race.

    Interested to see how Urban Icon gets on up at a mile back on better ground.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by simmo View Post
    I've gone for advertise and madhmoon with £2 on king of chance as my outsider.
    Got 25 the place. Happy with that.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good shout, simmo. Well done. Chuffed for you.

    SteveM headlined the winner in his Weekender feature so kudos to him too.

    I can't help thinking the three to race down the near rail were at a huge advantage but they were so closely bunched in the middle of the track it was probably a duff renewal.
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    I wouldn’t be that quick to write them all off yet! The three this side seemed to have a massive advantage. And to me it looked like the ground was very loose in the middle too. The rain can’t have helped. And I don’t think TS was helped by having to make his own running. He’s much better than that.
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    The Curragh will get a Guineas to remember weather permitting.
    The placed horses far side bound to feel hard done by draw.
    Hats off to winner though, he looked and acted the part.
    Fair play An Capall, you called it !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post

    What do you make of the Palace House. Mabs Cross has an anchor of a penalty and not sure what to make of SP - don't really like 3yos for this.

    I'm considering Equilateral who showed plenty of pace in the Abernant, maybe too much, and didn't quite get home. 5f/good ground might be the making of him.
    Mugged by the penalty carrier - tough luck, Euro.

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