Collectively us forumites have backed him a few times the past season or two. Down to a mark of 96, now dropped four pounds, I'm wondering when he'll bounce back? Entered in two races at Haydock on Saturday..
Collectively us forumites have backed him a few times the past season or two. Down to a mark of 96, now dropped four pounds, I'm wondering when he'll bounce back? Entered in two races at Haydock on Saturday..
when least expected I'd imagine! (but worth backing until then anyway!)
Last edited by simmo; 23rd April 2019 at 2:47 PM.
He seemed to be right at the very top of his game a few weeks ago.
I don't follow the trainer closely because so many of his are similar types and I don't know if the peaks and troughs of form are deliberate or not. It looks to me like he just keeps running them when they're out of form and for some reason the handicapper seems to cut his horses more slack than any other trainer's. Other trainers' horses can go nearly a season with maybe only a couple of pounds' respite yet Johnston's, which do seem to run every week or so, can be lowered after a run or two and they can be lowered dramatically.
The chances are Masham Star will win a decent pot or two this season at good odds but predicting the wins is another matter altogether.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Having taken a closer look at his form - he has always run respectably just before coming in with RPR's before winning of 96, 77 (96 2 days before that), 94, 96, 95 and 90.
He's also run to marks higher than that before losing - so perhaps 90 - 96 is the sweet spot of respectability without overdoing it.
Just to take that analysis a step further he has run to marks of between 90 - 96 without winning on 12 occasions.
On 5 of the 12 subsequent runs he has won - one of those 12 can also be removed as it was followed by a 50 day break, so 5 from 11 wins after running to 90 - 96.
Interesting Simmo. He's been running like he needs a return to seven furlongs for sure. So I hope he'll be declared for the 'Old Boston' race at Haydock on Saturday.
His handicap marks for his wins also tell a bit of a story - 92 being the highest he's won off on turf, 100 on the AW.
So another couple of runs to get the mark down, a sighter, then a win would be the pattern I'd look for.
Desert Orchid (23rd April 2019)
Declared for 'Old Boston' Handicap on Saturday. Will watch the betting market.
Overall his record is poor imo.needs to drop to 90 to have a chance.ive backed it a few times but I decided to have a look at its form and I was a bit disappointed.
What's happened to Vale of Kent?
Fair point. I added my reply without doing any checking.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (26th April 2019)
I thought someone might bump this thread for me, given Masham Star runs today in the 4.20 at Windsor. Anyways, as the old saying goes, if you want something done properly, do it yourself, so thats what I've done.
On the race itself...I remember the favourite Greenside from about two seasons ago. He's a good horse on his day so we'll see how he matches up against Masham Star. Masham Star is very well punted today, (not my money).
Last edited by Marb; 6th May 2019 at 2:46 PM.
Looks to have a chance tomorrow marb.14/1 is worth a go.
Cheers. Tough race though. Petrus has improved since being castrated, and Salute The Soldier is one I'm expecting to win races this season.
Outsider (18th May 2019)
Was thinking inevitability as it was cruising upto last 100 yards, 3rd not bad tho
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Off for its life today.
You might need to wait a few runs for it to win again.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Chester tomorrow and on the drift and bad draw.must have a chance if he gets across early.
The handicapper, surprisingly in my view, left him alone for last week's good run but I reckon a similar effort is the best fans can hope for today, especially given the draw. There might be a wee race on for the lead among those inside him, which won't help.
All in all, not for me today.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Yeah same here, DO. Last week's Victoria Cup third, Kaeso, looks a worthy favourite.
Outsider (25th May 2019)