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Thread: Lincoln

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    Lincoln

    There's a declaration stage tomorrow.

    I did research on the most valuable flat handicaps last season. Many winners won after showing improved form after being gelded.

    Like any trend, there's always exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, the amount of horses that were beaten in maiden/novice races, often at short odds, then going on to win big handicaps, was very eye-catching.

    There seems to be one qualifier in the Lincoln next Saturday, which is Salute The Solider.

    His form has picked up in handicaps after the operation.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th March 2019 at 8:02 PM.

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    Won last night or was it Fri night - prefer to get a few weeks form gathering b4 indulging on the flat bud. AW form rarely translates

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tiny Clanger View Post
    Won last night or was it Fri night - prefer to get a few weeks form gathering b4 indulging on the flat bud. AW form rarely translates

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    Or could it be disguising his true ability? So a win or be pulled up job, perhaps?
    Last edited by Marb; 24th March 2019 at 8:50 PM.

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    I reckon he'll run in the Spring Mile.

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    Outsider (27th March 2019)

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    Not in either. Nevermind. In the Spring Mile Petrus has recently had the gelding operation, I think I'll back him.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th March 2019 at 1:42 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Not in either. Nevermind. In the Spring Mile Petrus has recently had the gelding operation, I think I'll back him.
    I backed Petrus and gulf of poets for the Lincoln.so I suppose I will have to do them in the spring mile.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My first (but not necessarily main) bet in the Lincoln is Great Prospector (40/1). He took in the Dewhurst as a juvenile and started his 3yo season off 106 but a moderate year has seen him drop to 97. Fahey has two declared from three likely to make the cut and I wonder if Gabrial was redirected to the Mile to make way for this fellow. Paul Hanagan takes the ride so that's hardly a negative. I'll copy this to the longshot thread.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I backed Petrus and gulf of poets for the Lincoln.so I suppose I will have to do them in the spring mile.
    Al Jellaby is the main danger. I considered him, but Petrus looks to have equally as good a chance and is a slightly bigger price.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th March 2019 at 11:51 PM.

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    Humbert in the Lincoln for me. He has come on leaps and bounds since the all important gelding operation, still looks on a winning mark to me.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th March 2019 at 11:12 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Humbert is on my radar.

    The slight worry is that he has changed stables without changing owners, which begs the question why. Hugo Palmer is no mug trainer. Then again, going to O'Meara would hardly be a negative in terms of this race given he has sent a couple of emergent G1 horses to it in recent years and Nolan looks the main jockey with Tudhope in Dubai.
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    Sometimes you just have to ignore the form book.

    I wouldn't put a specific figure on the number of hours I spent on the Lincoln form. I ran off my copy of the field at the 5-day stage down to number 40. If I spent on average five minutes per horse, we're talking almost three and a half hours on one race. It was probably more than that, though, as I started on it around 11.30am and finished later in the evening although I tend to do about an hour then break off to watch TV etc.

    At the end of the day I wondered had I wasted the day. To be honest, I wondered beforehand if I'd be wasting my time. Hopefully Great Prospector (best 22/1 this morning, by the way) will at least place and get me a return but the truth is I suspect the favourite Auxerre might just pish in.

    For years I've done well keeping onside Godolphin runners in the big handicaps, not necessarily because they're well-handicapped on the basis of my form study but because the operation tends to identify quite early on the right type for a given race and campaign it accordingly.

    Obviously they won't be the only ones doing it but they are pretty successful at it.

    So while Auxerre actually sits at the bottom of my ratings table I'll be backing him as my main bet in the belief that 4/1 will probably be value after all. Godolphin would not be running him in this race off 100 if they didn't think he was at least a 115-120 horse already.

    (Sits back awaiting a faceful of egg....)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 30th March 2019 at 10:19 AM.
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    Ripp Orf 12/1 5 places.
    Reasoning in the WAYBT thread.
    Last edited by reet hard; 30th March 2019 at 10:44 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ripp Orf is top on my ratings but I took the view that this is his prep for the Victoria Cup. Your take on the prep is interesting but I'm already committed to a couple of bets in the Lincoln.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I backed Petrus and gulf of poets for the Lincoln.so I suppose I will have to do them in the spring mile.
    Good man.

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    Al Kherb landed some nice bets at Catterick winning by an easy 4 lengths. I am told he has thrived since so no quams about going to Ascot and the dosh will be on again
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Not in either. Nevermind. In the Spring Mile Petrus has recently had the gelding operation, I think I'll back him.
    Well done marble.i did both but of course I had more on gulf of poets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Good man.
    Or woman.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Well done marble.i did both but of course I had more on gulf of poets.
    Well it's a lovely start to the day, Humbert is my pick in the Lincoln, wouldn't it be nice to land two winners on the same day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Or woman.
    You were right first time lol

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