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Thread: Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    For anyone not aware, to get an idea of how the weights will shape up and how well handicapped or otherwise they are compared with RPRs, the RP card can be useful:

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...9-02-09/719309

    Click on 'OR' and it will sort the field in order of current ORs.

    Check across to the final column and you'll see how the RPRs compare.

    Mohaayed will be set 11-12 as things stand and it's easy to work out what the rest of the weights will be. Obviously this will change as horses are re-handicapped between now and publication of the weights but it's always good to get an early sighter of the handicap.

    Looks like Magic Dancer will be top-rated on RPRs for now, 9lbs ahead of his OR but no guarantee he'd make the cut and might need to win and therefore go up the weights to do so, which in turn would nullify that advantage. 50/1 at present.

    Me? I think Mont Des Avaloirs (33/1) hasn't been off an inch so far this season and the fact he's been entered in spite of his poor finishing efforts might speak volumes. He's the one that immediately catches my eye.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th January 2019 at 9:10 PM.
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    I have taken the 33/1 about Sayar.

    He looked like he might shape into a Supreme horse early in his career (would have been mentioned in the same breath as Sharjah back then), before being hampered by a few setbacks.

    It’s hard to get a firm grasp on what he has achieved, but he won his first two novices with ease before injury intervened, and went well for a long way in a Grade 2 on his return from absence behind Getabird, in the spring at Fairyhouse.

    Obviously, his chance depends to a large extent on what the UK handicapper does, but he remains unexposed, and if he’s awared anything close to his current Irish mark of 137, he has the potential to be a real market-springer.

    I’ve no idea if the entry is remotely serious, and the Irish hardly have a good record in the race, but he immediately jumped out at me when I saw the entry.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 8th January 2019 at 9:43 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    If it's 137 in Ireland, the chances are he'll be rated around 143.
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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Yep, though I’d rather not talk about his mark, in case I bogey him.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Style De Garde 33/1 looks a likely type for Henderson - runs today 2.55 Taunton.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm going to spend some time today checking out this Al Dancer chappie.

    Paul Kealy tips him for both this race and the Supreme and I'm pretty sure when PK puts up anything of NTD's as a strong fancy the strike rate is pretty high.

    I remember being very impressed with AD last time out but haven't done the times for that meeting for some reason. It looks like PK has accessed some significant sectionals.
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    I've still to look at sectionals but the other signs are mixed.

    He was a comfortable wide-margin winner in easily the fastest time over hurdles on the day. It was a class 3 race and only one of the beaten horses (20+ lengths) has run since, beaten 10+ lengths in a class 4 race. On my figures its form over the two races is in the same ball park.

    On times, I have AD 16lbs faster on the day than Elixir De Nutz (C&D) and 46lbs faster than Aaron Lad (3m) but EDN was never really pressed that day. It was actually the same day that The Worlds End put up on my figures an RSA-winning time, 24lbs faster than Cogry who forced a strong pace in his race and went up to 142 for it.

    I also have quite a difference in going allowances between the hurdles and chase courses that day. If I applied the chase g/a to the hurdles course those races would be slow.
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    Gary Moore has won this race three times. He has a horse called Not Never entered. He could only finish 12th last time behind Mohaayed when stepped up in class at Ascot, but it was his first run since February 2018. His overall profile shows he has improved in the handicap hurdles, and I look forward to hopefully seeing him run again at Fontwell on Monday, where he can hopefully show he is worth running at Newbury, (if he makes the cut). He might need a penalty.
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2019 at 2:11 PM.

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    I can't say the sectionals are particularly informative. EDN was odds on and not pressed early in the race. The handicap started off at a similar modest pace but picked up after the second where they moved two seconds ahead. the gap was maintained until the handicap took another second out of EDN when AD and another horse started hassling the leader. They were getting going while EDN was under no pressure at the front and the handicap pulled another two seconds clear over the next two. But although AD was stretching clear after the last, EDN pulled back two seconds (say ten lengths) on him from the last. I'd say that was pretty good on EDN's part and the runner up Jarvey's Plate has since hacked up in a better race turning over I Can't Explain in the process.

    At the moment, I have to say I'm not going to be rushing in to back Al Dancer.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Gary Moore has won this race three times. He has a horse called Not Never entered. He could only finish 12th last time behind Mohaayed when stepped up in class at Ascot, but it was his first run since February 2018. His overall profile shows he has improved in the handicap hurdles, and I look forward to hopefully seeing him run again at Fontwell on Monday, where he can hopefully show he is worth running at Newbury, (if he makes the cut). He might need a penalty.
    I backed Not Never that day at long odds (might even have put him up on the long shot thread) and the first thing that went through my head when I saw the jockey letting them get away from him on the run up from Swinley Bottom was "Schweppes".

    Edit - just checked - I only got 14/1 NN that day so unlikely to have made the LS thread.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th January 2019 at 2:17 PM.
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    That's music to my ears, DO. Cheers.
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2019 at 2:23 PM.

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    I've looked again at the race entries trying to find something with a more realistic chance on the formbook than my early pick, Not Never, (who I may still have a saver on nearer the race, if he gets in). One piece of form that looks rather smart, which wasn't on my radar previously is Leoncavello's third behind Sharjah at Galway in August 2018. Richard Newland's horse wasn't beaten far, and a mark in the 140's doesn't look too bad now. Sharjah could go up to the 160's after the Irish Champion. Bedrock was back in fourth that day and he has form which closely ties in with Sharjah. So Leoncavello is great value at 33/1 with Bet 365 and Betfair on the above evidence. He will be coming back from a break after getting turned over at 1/2 in a novice chase though. This is probably just the thing he needed, as his hurdle career ain't over yet!
    Last edited by Marb; 13th January 2019 at 6:45 PM.

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    Warren Greatrex will want the ground to be on the good side of soft for Western Ryder who he dropped back to 2 miles at Ascot.

    He would have to be pleased with that run on that ground..can't imagine he'll be too thrilled with the 5lb rise but he does think there's a big race in him.

    Long way to go but have taken 33/1
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I've looked again at the race entries trying to find something with a more realistic chance on the formbook than my early pick, Not Never, (who I may still have a saver on nearer the race, if he gets in). One piece of form that looks rather smart, which wasn't on my radar previously is Leoncavello's third behind Sharjah at Galway in August 2018. Richard Newland's horse wasn't beaten far, and a mark in the 140's doesn't look too bad now. Sharjah could go up to the 160's after the Irish Champion. Bedrock was back in fourth that day and he has form which closely ties in with Sharjah. So Leoncavello is great value at 33/1 with Bet 365 and Betfair on the above evidence. He will be coming back from a break after getting turned over at 1/2 in a novice chase though. This is probably just the thing he needed, as his hurdle career ain't over yet!
    It does look like Richard Newland has revitalised Leoncavallo, a horse who started his career as a Godolphin/Appleby but could only manage a rating on the Flat of 68 after one Class 6 (six) win to his name.

    A switch to John Ferguson for a jumps campaign brought about immediate success with five hurdling wins in a row taking him to 140 and might have made the sixth if he'd stayed on his feet when attempting to confirm previous form with Sceau Royal in the Triumph Trial race before being well beaten in the Triumph itself.

    Returned to Appleby for the Flat, a narrow win in a Class 5 handicap was followed by a narrower defeat in another C5 race off 5lbs higher and for which he remains on 73 all this time later, suggesting his level over jumps should be around 115.

    He then went to Ben Pauling for his next hurdles campaign off 139 but a promising start when failing to give Sceau Royal weight was followed by one disappointment after another. By the time Newland took charge of him towards the end of last season his mark was back down to 133 but he took advantage of it with a win which put him back up to 140, off which he ran at Galway. I have a very nice rating for him for that (suggesting, as an aside, he'd trounce Solomon Grey off their respective marks) and his new OR seriously under-rates him, I think.

    He really should have won his chase debut so I wonder whether he didn't enjoy fencing or whether his simian tendencies are resurfacing. That would be my major worry with him but, as I say, that Galway form is excellent.
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    Thanks for putting a bit of context into his form. Enjoyed the read. I agree he'd probably trounce Solomon Grey over two miles, though I would reiterate Solomon's best form in future is likely to be over longer distances, i.e 2M4F and further.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 12:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I backed Not Never that day at long odds (might even have put him up on the long shot thread) and the first thing that went through my head when I saw the jockey letting them get away from him on the run up from Swinley Bottom was "Schweppes".

    Edit - just checked - I only got 14/1 NN that day so unlikely to have made the LS thread.
    What did you make of Not Never's performance today, DO? It looked like he needed every yard of the extra trip, but I thought it was quite an eye-catching performance, nevertheless. A faster pace over a shorter distance such as The Betfair Hurdle could suit, and his price has shortened today, which makes plenty of sense. Between him and Leoncavello I have my two each way plays, albeit anti-post, to nibble at in the next few weeks. I need two possible runners, as it's always wiser not to put all your eggs in one basket in these instances.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 8:47 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've only just got in after being out all afternoon, Marble. I'd no idea NN was running today as I don't usually look at midweek racing. If I get a chance over the next few days I'll try and get a look.
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    That's what GG.alerts are for! I always put my horses of interest in my GG.co.uk alerts, so that I know when they are going to run. It certainly helps. I look forward to your anaylisis.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 8:55 PM.

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    Did you used to be on gg.com marble?

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