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Thread: 2019 Grand National

  1. #201
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ms Parfois to miss the race due to injury, acc to RP site.

    Shame for all connected but it's one less for me to back
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  3. #202
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    69 left in, Ms Parfois scratched as lame.

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    I can't get the bet on with them but Ladbrokes odds boosts bring Joe Farrell up to 60/1 (from 50s), 6 Places.

    That is a great NRNB price, especially as he's looking increasingly like making the cut.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  6. #204
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  7. #205
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Bless The Wings currently runner number 40

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
    I’ve had Vieux Lion Rouge 2 or 3 times now, doesn’t get the trip for me. I’ll be absolutely broken if he wins.

  9. #207
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Bless The Wings currently runner number 40

    5 day decs

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...9-04-06/720537

  10. #208
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    I could be wrong but I think that, historically, there aren't many withdrawals between the 5 day confirmations and final decs.

    5 against the field for me:
    Rock The Kasbah
    Noble Endeavor
    Step Back
    Vintage Clouds
    Walk In The Mill
    Last edited by archie; 1st April 2019 at 7:13 PM.
    The older I get the better I was.

  11. #209
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Bless The Wings currently runner number 40

    5 day decs

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...9-04-06/720537
    Happy enough to see that.

    By the way, in terms of repeat winners, I wouldn't be surprised at all if One For Arthur fared better than Tiger Roll. On his way to winning two years ago he got there on a nice curve and I reckoned at the time he had the potential to develop into a Gold Cup runner. As was evident that season, he really only starts running after three miles and he's one of the strongest finishers of a National I recall seeing. If he's within 15 lengths of the lead turning for home there won't be many in front of him at the line, if any (apart from Noble Endeavor, of course ). He just has to get there fit and healthy to have a shout.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st April 2019 at 2:23 PM.
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  12. #210
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Will copy this across to the longshot thread:

    I've just taken 25/1 ew 5pl bog/nrnb Pairofbrowneyes.

    It will be officially 9lbs well in on the day and I reckon once people latch on to that it will come in to 10s or less, regardless of how else its chances might shape up.

    If it doesn't run, no harm done.
    I've just topped up on this one. Now that I've done the form, I'm of the opinion that the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than he has been, meaning that he could well be much better handicapped than his new OR implies. Should definitely be up among the favourites now as he's proved he's right back in form and arguably some way better than ever. If he jumps and stays it's hard to see him out of the frame.
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  14. #211
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
    I'm a little surprised to see Tom Scu opting for VLR over RDT.

    We know VLR doesn't truly stay but he'll probably complete again and maybe be involved for the extended places but if RDT is the National horse they were claiming him to be I'd have thought Scu would happily have switched. Maybe my earlie suspicion that this time around is all about getting the young horse some experience is what's at play.
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  15. #212
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    Horses that finished unplaced in the national one year dont come back and win it another year.i think Mom Mome is the only one.
    If they fall,that's different.pleasant company almost did but the year before he made a bad mistake at a crucial time.
    So I think if Ramses is going to win it,it will have to be this year.
    Vieux lion rouge looks not to stay but having said that nothing was finishing better in the race over the fences earlier in the season.
    Forgot the name of the race(age).
    Horses that have only run once or twice this season have a poor record and horses after more than 50 days off likewise.
    All helps to confuse matters.
    My main two are noble endeavour and general principal.

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    Seem to recall someone liking this format so putting it up

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  18. #214
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Vieux lion rouge looks not to stay but having said that nothing was finishing better in the race over the fences earlier in the season.
    Forgot the name of the race(age).
    That was the Becher (3m2f). Yes, ran on well that day but had previously won over further (at Haydock) before not getting home in the National. Did have wind surgery before that win and maybe that will help.
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  19. #215
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Horses that finished unplaced in the national one year dont come back and win it another year.i think Mom Mome is the only one.
    If they fall,that's different.pleasant company almost did but the year before he made a bad mistake at a crucial time.
    Yes. In another stride PC would have blown that stat out of the water but I largely agree. If they fail due to stamina they're worth opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    So I think if Ramses is going to win it,it will have to be this year.
    But he's only 7yo. They could pull him up half-way round and he wouldn't be 'disqualified' for next year on that statistical approach. Baie Des Iles is a similar case this time around as she was only seven last year but has some very classy form if you look deep enough.


    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Horses that have only run once or twice this season have a poor record and horses after more than 50 days off likewise.
    All helps to confuse matters.
    The way they train them these days I wouldn't expect those stats to hold for too long.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    My main two are noble endeavour and general principal.
    Both with serious chances in my book but NE has only had two runs this season after missing all of last season. (Doesn't worry me in the least but fails on your stats.)
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  21. #216
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    These are the top 10 on my figures (the third-last column) adjusted for this one race. I won't back all of these as there are others in the race that interest me more for other reasons.

    No. Horse Days Age Weight OR fut MON1 MON2 Notes RPR
    21 Noble Endeavor 25 10 10-10 150 193 [202] 161
    29 Pairofbrowneyes 27 10 10-6 146 +10 189 200 ? p 180
    37 Livelovelaugh 23 9 10-4 144 186 198 ?? 172
    46 Isleofhopendreams 27 12 10-2 142 184 197 p? 172
    42 Joe Farrell 14 10 10-2 142 +3 182 195 ? p 180
    36 General Principle 25 10 10-4 144 182 194 p 173
    40 Bless The Wings 24 14 10-3 143 182 194½ ? 169
    44 The Young Master 23 10 10-2 142 181 194 [+5?] 172
    45 Baie Des Iles 21 8 10-2 142 181 194 ++? 168
    25 Tea For Two 24 10 10-9 149 184 193½ ? d? 173
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st April 2019 at 6:12 PM.
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  23. #217
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Bless The Wings is 14yo, absolutely no chance. Not sure it should even be running.

    Incidentally what do people think about Gordon having so many runners in the race ?
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 1st April 2019 at 6:44 PM.

  24. #218
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Bless The Wings wasn't beaten too far last year and is lightly raced. I'm happy to let it take its chance.

    No problem with Elliott being mob-handed. Pipe had 10 one year. O'Brien can run 7 in the Derby.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Bless The Wings is 14yo, absolutely no chance. Not sure it should even be running.

    Incidentally what do people think about Gordon having so many runners in the race ?
    Personally I dont like to see it.but at least 4 of them have serious chances.

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    Mark Enright rides Noble Endeavour -Robbie Dunne Bless The Wings -both positive bookings in my opinion.

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