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Thread: 2019 Grand National

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm presuming he has an issue and won't run at the festival.

    The National was the stated aim for this season with maybe a run in the Gold Cup but he wasn't entered for that either.

    I suspect he's maybe heading for retirement.
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    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Odd there's no Theatre Territory......unless they are planning to buy something the night before???

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    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    Odd there's no Theatre Territory......unless they are planning to buy something the night before???
    Topham is the aim I think. Don't think she stays either.

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    Prediction........First woman ever to ride the winner of the Grand National Rachael Blackmore April 2019.............
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    Odd there's no Theatre Territory......unless they are planning to buy something the night before???
    Would've needed to go up a stone in the weights before the 12th of Feb to even get in GG.

    Imo the horse has been terribley campaigned thus far and could well have won events this term if the right entries to take up had been chosen.
    Last edited by Danny; 31st January 2019 at 9:26 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Prediction........First woman ever to ride the winner of the Grand National Rachael Blackmore April 2019.............
    I don't usually take much notice of a) Racing in Ireland (basically because I'm an awful judge of it) and b) jockeys surrounded by hype.

    I have however caught a few races where Blackmore has ridden. A couple of finishes in particular where I thought "That's unbelievable" the girl is a beast !

    Excellent jockey and the more I see the more I like.
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  9. #27
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Strictly on ratings, the top 5 rated in the National appear to be Bristol de Mai 11-10 Elegant Escape 10-13 Valtor 10-11 Tiger Roll 10-10 Sub Lieutenant 10-9 If weights are done by current marks then 10 stone would be 149. Anyone disagree ?

    Asking for a friend

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  11. #28
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Strictly on ratings, the top 5 rated in the National appear to be Bristol de Mai 11-10 Elegant Escape 10-13 Valtor 10-11 Tiger Roll 10-10 Sub Lieutenant 10-9 If weights are done by current marks then 10 stone would be 149. Anyone disagree ?

    Asking for a friend
    Yes and no.

    Current top 5 on official ratings:

    BDM 173
    Elegant Escape 162
    Valtor 160
    Go Conquer 157
    Blaklion 156

    I'd half-expect BDM to be reduced to 170 to tempt them to run him (off 11-10 top weight) so the 10-0 mark would be 146 but they might be more lenient to BDM to really tempt connections which would bring the floor down again.

    Connections might decide not to risk him at all so if Elegant Escape (162) ends up with 11-10 the 10-0 mark will be 138.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st January 2019 at 10:45 AM.
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  13. #29
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    I'm sure there have been plenty, especially back when so many were running from out of the handicap but when was the last time the previous year's winner got the chance to run off as light a weight as 10-10 ?
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I'm sure there have been plenty, especially back when so many were running from out of the handicap but when was the last time the previous year's winner got the chance to run off as light a weight as 10-10 ?
    Silver Birch missed the following year but ran off 11-0 the next time. That's as close as I can see. I'm not convinced Tiger Roll will get to run off 10-10, though.

    I expect BDM will be taken out unless they want to use him to keep half a normal field out of the weights to help something like Blaklion.

    Edit
    Earth Summit got to race off 11-0 too.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st January 2019 at 12:02 PM.
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    Twister's a strange one though and I wouldn't put anything past him. Notwithstanding the fact Sandown is likely to be called off, he's declared the twice raced (over here) 4yo Torpillo to run against the reigning, dual champion hurdler on Saturday.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 31st January 2019 at 12:02 PM.
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    Black lion off 10.7 would be interesting.

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    folsom blue 40/1 looks tempting

    Just took 66/1 with betfair.
    Last edited by Outsider; 31st January 2019 at 1:08 PM.

  19. #34
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Topham is the aim I think. Don't think she stays either.
    Didn't qualify I am told - the GN was the aim - and they believe she does stay.

  20. #35
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The following are at least 6lbs higher on RPRs than ORs but the list doesn't include Irish horses as they're not included at the RP site.

    From the top down:

    Go Conquer 6
    Yala Enki 6
    Sizing Codelco 8
    Traffic Fluide 7
    Master Dee 7
    Ramses De Teillee 7
    Tea For Two 6
    Step Back 6
    Vieux Lion Rouge 6
    Vintage Clouds 8
    Captain Redbeard 8
    Impulsive Star 6
    Milansbar 13
    Kilcrea Vale 8
    Splash Of Ginge 11
    Looking Well 9


    That covers the ORs down to 133 so from Looking Well up to Impulsive Star (139) they're unlikely to make the cut, hence the red type.
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  21. #36
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Would've needed to go up a stone in the weights before the 12th of Feb to even get in GG.

    Imo the horse has been terribley campaigned thus far and could well have won events this term if the right entries to take up had been chosen.
    Yes agree about the campaign , last race at Cheltenham was a waste. They were very keen though. I suspect they will buy something as SWC wants a ride.

  22. #37
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    I suspect they will buy something as SWC wants a ride.
    They might leave it until quite late to see if Impulsive Star makes it.
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  23. #38
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Been pointed out to me that the Rooneys, who no longer run horses at Cheltenham on welfare grounds, have three horses entered in the GN

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  25. #39
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    That's more than Henderson has.

    Interesting that each year he seems keen to finally win it and yet this year he has Valtor (needs to step up markedly on his last performance) and Kilcrea Vale who has been round one circuit twice before, finishing the shorter distance off well both times and was earmarked up as a National horse by the trainer at the start of the season.

    He wasn't one that would have immediately stood out to me but the more I look at him the more I like him.

    His mark of 137 makes him unlikely to get in as it stands but as I see it, he needs to have won a chase over a minimum of 3 miles (if my memory serves me) and despite spending most of his career over fences at the intermediate trip, Nicky ran him over 3 miles last time and has him entered for the (unlikely to go ahead) 3 mile chase at Sandown on Saturday. A good perforance between now and mid Feb and he should go up just enough.

    It's speculative to say the least but I'm going to have my first AP nibble at him at 140+ on the exchanges and will back him wherever he runs next in the hope that Nicky is targetting the penalty.
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  26. #40
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Just needs to have been in the first four at a minimum two miles seven and a half furlongs or more at any time during the horse's career, plus must have run a race over fences in current season up to March 19th.

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