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Thread: 2019 Grand National

  1. #161
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    nice Monkees reference in your signature GG.

  2. #162
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Randy Scouse Git!
    Vote Alfie!!!!

  3. #163
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I knew it as Alternate Title.

    Anyroads...

    Copied (and edited) from the longshot thread:


    Grand National - Bless The Wings ew 5pl nrnb/bog 150/1 (B365) - the stats say a 14yo can't win the race but they probably said last year a 13yo couldn't win either. Now, the eagle-eyed out there will have spotted that BTW did not win the race last year...

    However. It was a very gallant third, holding off the Gold Cup third, 8yo Anibale Fly.

    On my handicapping for this race, a pound equates to two lengths. The turnaround in ratings this season means:

    Tiger Roll should be pulled back 18 lengths
    Pleasant Company by 14 lengths
    Anibale Fly by 10 lengths.

    Bless The Wings' age appears to have been allowed for in that he should be in the same place as last year off the same mark. It looks like the handicapper is assuming he doesn't need to adjust its rating to pull it back, that age will do it. Maybe it will. In theory Bless The Wings, 11 lengths away in third, should finish in front of Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company and Anibale Fly.

    In theory.

    Tiger Roll looks a better horse again this year but on my figures he was only very marginally better in the X-C race, nowhere near the big rise the handicapper has given him (which won't apply in this race - it just means to me he won't be as well in as the ratings suggest although I don't know exactly how much he had in reserve the other day).

    Tiger Roll may have been stopping near the finish last year. The TV camera angle made it look like Pleasant Company was finishing but I'm not noticing a discernible difference in the distance back to BTW from the Elbow to the line.

    Anibale Fly is a better horse this year but he's already rated 5lbs higher so will he finish any further forward?

    BTW should probably be in the 25-50/1 range max and it might attract sentimental support on the day from people who back regular finishers in the race and the TV will highlight its run last year. I'd think about laying it off within that range.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th March 2019 at 1:35 PM.
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  5. #164
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    If Bristol runs,PLEASANT COMPANY who has gone up 7lb will carry the same weight as last year.
    Last year I bbacked Pleasant with confidence and almost made a packet,but this year he hasnt showed much but hes been backed.
    Final decs will interesting.usually I get a list of about ten and then cut it down to 4 to back but this year I found myself backing early and so far I've done 8 so far.two or 3 because I always back them.isleofhopendreams is one but mightn't get in.

    Ever since you mentioned NOBLE ENDEAVOUR D.O I had to take a look and pinched some 79 on betfair and 10 for a place.
    So I will have to say a big Thank you if this comes off.
    I've done 4 of Elliots(not Tiger) and 3 of Willie's plus Blacklion.
    I think Ms Parlais must have a chance with 10.2 after his run in the Midlands.
    Looks a very good race this year.

  6. #165
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    My idea of a horse to run well, but which has a desperate stat to overcome , is a 7yo and a 7yo hasn't won this since 1940. The horse in question came second in the Grand National trial, second in the Welsh National, has a decent weight (10st 5lb) and I particularly like the fact it has never fallen or unseated its rider nor pulled up. Name of the horses is Ramses De Teillee, can't decide whether being trained by David Pipe is a negative, probably not in this type of race.

    My other fancy is Yala Enki, Venetia Williams knows what it takes to win this race. Horse was third in the Welsh National and seventh in the Gold Cup and its has won or placed in 50% of its races.Carries 10st 12lb. Both horses will get in.

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    A 7yr old was first past the post in 1994 but unfortunately he hadnt got a jockey.YOUNG HUSTLER was a horse I followed and as a 7yr old was b.d when ridden by David Bridgewater.the following two years Carl Llewellyn fell off him.
    I've just watched the race again and read about him just to make sure my memory was right about him crossing the line first.
    It was good to read hes still alive at the age of 32fantastic.

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  10. #167
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    My idea of a horse to run well, but which has a desperate stat to overcome , is a 7yo and a 7yo hasn't won this since 1940. The horse in question came second in the Grand National trial, second in the Welsh National, has a decent weight (10st 5lb) and I particularly like the fact it has never fallen or unseated its rider nor pulled up. Name of the horses is Ramses De Teillee, can't decide whether being trained by David Pipe is a negative, probably not in this type of race.

    My other fancy is Yala Enki, Venetia Williams knows what it takes to win this race. Horse was third in the Welsh National and seventh in the Gold Cup and its has won or placed in 50% of its races.Carries 10st 12lb. Both horses will get in.
    Age is the only negative I have against RDT, otherwise it's a very good candidate. I just wonder if this year is all about getting experience of the fences ahead of a serious bash at next year's race.
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    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    He, Mickey Dolenz, had to rename i, hence Alternate Title, as Randy Scouse Git not allowed by the PC brigade back in the day. Apparently written/inspired by/after watching 'Til Death Do Us Part. Maybe but Micky was definitely on something when he wrote it!

    I think Yala Enki has a huge each way chance, but may depend on the ground and how he has come out of Cheltenham.
    If it rains a lot really, really fancy Ms Parfois if jockey can get the ride right.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    He, Mickey Dolenz, had to rename i, hence Alternate Title, as Randy Scouse Git not allowed by the PC brigade back in the day. Apparently written/inspired by/after watching 'Til Death Do Us Part. Maybe but Micky was definitely on something when he wrote it!
    If you've seen the Monkees film "Head" then you'll know they were all on something!

  13. #170
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    By the way, does anyone know:

    How many 7yos have run in the National in the last 40 years?
    What odds they were?
    Who trained them?
    Who rode them?

    I don’t imagine many would have had as strong a profile as RDT.
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  14. #171
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Initial 2019 Goffs UK Aintree Sale entries include Don Poli and Outlander if anyone wants to buy a potential GN runner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Initial 2019 Goffs UK Aintree Sale entries include Don Poli and Outlander if anyone wants to buy a potential GN runner.
    Poli looked properly gone at the game last time out

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

  16. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    By the way, does anyone know:

    How many 7yos have run in the National in the last 40 years?
    What odds they were?
    Who trained them?
    Who rode them?

    I don’t imagine many would have had as strong a profile as RDT.
    Ceol Na Mara was 7 in 1976, finished fifth.
    Senator Maclacurry, 1983 fifth to Corbiere , was trained by JJ Walsh' John Harty rode.
    I remember Paul Carberry riding a six year old for M C Pipe that led for most the first circuit early 1990s.

    I do not remember a 7 year old finishing closer but memory is hazy enough .

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  18. #174
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Jury Duty is interesting me.

  19. #175
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Do you think he'll jump well enough. Was on him ap in the 4 miler last year and he was horrible.

    I've come down on Mall Dini, Rathvinden and Vintage Clouds.

  20. #176
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Don't know about tiggers but ever since Maori Venture won the National I haven't let suspect jumping put me off anything. The time I relented and let it put me off Rhyme N Reason it went and won despite doing the splits at one point.

    Plenty of so-called iffy jumpers have won the race. It's as if the fences really wake them up.
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  21. #177
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I agree DO, besides if they manage to negotiate a circuit, the fences are half the size 2nd time around.

  22. #178
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    Bristol de mai to be taken out of national.weights to go up at least 4lb.

  23. #179
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Bristol de mai to be taken out of national.weights to go up at least 4lb.
    This could snowball.

    Would they want Anibale Fly to carry 11-10 after a hard race at Cheltenham?

    Would Alpha Des Obeaux be up to carrying 11-10 if AF came out too? Maybe Elliott will want to keep ADO there just to help Tiger Roll and the rest of his team, though.

    The Storyteller isn't a Gigginstown horse so I don't see Elliott asking another owner to do them a favour unless there's an agreed quid pro quo somewhere along the line.

    Valtor might go for the Topham.

    Suddenly Tiger Roll is top weight...

    And the bottom weight is 10-9/10-8.




    (Ok, maybe not so suddenly, but you know what I mean.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th March 2019 at 2:15 PM.
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  25. #180
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    If I had the money I’d buy Don Poli for a pet.

    I’ll strike him off if he’s getting sold, must be showing nothing after his injury.

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