He is IMO but does he have a >= 22% of winning the race ?. Yes, again I think he does but that still doesn't make me want to rush out and back him at that price in a race like this.
The flip side of this is that if he's available at 6/1 on the morning of the race then you should ask yourself, depsite your doubts, are his chances better than 14.5% ? and I'd be amazed if there were many followers of the sport who didn't.