He is IMO but does he have a >= 22% of winning the race ?. Yes, again I think he does but that still doesn't make me want to rush out and back him at that price in a race like this.Originally Posted by Desert Orchid
The flip side of this is that if he's available at 6/1 on the morning of the race then you should ask yourself, depsite your doubts, are his chances better than 14.5% ? and I'd be amazed if there were many followers of the sport who didn't.
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
It's exactly 100 years since the winner, ridden by Lester's granddad, started at less than 6/1 and 99 years since the SP was less than 13/2.
The older I get the better I was.
I spent two days studying the form looking for value. All i came up with was a migraine and a conclusion is Tiger Roll the next Red Rum?
Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.
Perpetual (21st March 2019)
What price any individual horse to get round? Somewhere between even money and 2/1? If you say that Tiger Roll is 5/4 to get round safely, a 7/2 SP would say that he's evens to win if he completes.
The older I get the better I was.
I presume you've based the even money to 2/1 estimate on a rough average from the number of finishers in recent years Archie.
If so then I'd be inclined to adjust the number based on those that didn't fall rather than didn't finish because there are a lot of horses each year that either can't go the pace, don't see the trip out or just don't take to the course for whatever reason and are pulled up. And I'd suggest it's safe to say Tiger doesn't fall into any of those categories so it's the odds against him falling or being brought down/badly hampered.
I appreciate this isn't particularly scientific but in the last three years there were 13, 8 and 11 horses that either fell, UR or were brought down - this obviously doesn't consider those that were so badly hampered they had to be later pulled up. But taking that admittedly small sample (frorm a variety of going from Gd - Sft - Heavy) we're looking at c. 1/3 chances of the horse standing up. Thereafter his chances of beating the other horses are, by using the same statistics, increased as there's likely to be only c. 28 others left standing.
By the time you've eliminated the doubtful stayers, slow plodders and plain badly handicapped horses this will come down even further.
Regardless, I'm not suggesting 7/2 offers any value but I genuinely think 6/1 would. This doesn't mean he'll win of course but the potential return would be greater than his chance of winning - IMHO.
Last edited by wilsonl; 21st March 2019 at 1:23 PM.
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
As it stands, we don't know whether he'll get to the start line, we don't know what weight he'll carry, we don't know what the going will be and we don't know who will oppose him.
It's impossible to say that any price is value until after the race.
The older I get the better I was.
I'd have loved to have seen Tiger Roll vs Hedgehunter on level weights round Aintree. Think Hedgehunter would take it. We all forgetting we would be looking at a dual winner in Hedgehunter had it not been for an absolutely ridiculous ride on him the year Amberleigh House won, same could be said for Clan Royal as well.
Won 2005 and third in 2006, some animal.
The 2019 race is intriguing. Tiger Roll provides no value for me, I'd want 8s before touching him. If Elliot can get Don Poli back anywhere near his old form I'd be seriously interested. Could be utter blind faith though. We'll see from the jockey bookings, Rachel Blackmore would interest me.
He’s still basically on the bridle coming over the last fence in last years national as well, I didn’t realise his superiority at the time until revisiting it now. Russell asks him to kick on and then he nearly gets collared near the line, would that worry anyone now? Not saying he doesn’t stay but it was a close finish considering he looked to have the race won 2/3 out last year.
Ground should be faster so wouldn't worry me. He's too short though considering the fuckery that could occur.
Will copy this across to the longshot thread:
I've just taken 25/1 ew 5pl bog/nrnb Pairofbrowneyes.
It will be officially 9lbs well in on the day and I reckon once people latch on to that it will come in to 10s or less, regardless of how else its chances might shape up.
If it doesn't run, no harm done.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I reckon there is more than a fair chance that money will come for that horse from people who listen to the FF podcast as it's likely he will get a good mention
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
"while on the jukebox Johnny sang about a thing called love !"
Ray and Philomena sang of my elusive dream.
Posting on FB stating Bryony Frost won't be fit in time for the race.
Vote Alfie!!!!
Wasn't there an item to this effect in the RP this morning?
You never know, sometimes these jockeys heal a lot quicker than other mortals.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Broke her collar bone.
Dont read the RP and only have access to racecards on the internet.
Vote Alfie!!!!
Same here as a rule but I was killing time in the bookie's waiting for a prescription from the chemist next door.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I don't read the racing Post either but Sportinglife/ATR/Skysports Racing websites are all good enough to keep abreast of the latest news.
Last edited by tiggers1972; 22nd March 2019 at 11:29 AM.
I have limited time at work so only check the entries, so I can tell them I need a day off if Big Baby boy is running and most nights too pooped once back from feeding my brat and poo picking to have the energy to read anything over 10 words!!
Last edited by G-G; 22nd March 2019 at 1:45 PM.
Vote Alfie!!!!
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote