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Thread: Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Struck my second bet in the race this evening: Mont Des Avaloirs ew 33/1 4 pl.

    This one looked all over the Tolworth winner for a long way last season but maybe did a wee bit too much out in front. I think he's been trained for this since that day. Summerville Boy won it before taking the Supreme and going up to 156 for that. Second was Kalashnikov who went on to win this (went up to 154 for it) and run second to Summerville Boy in the Supreme. MDA was third. Fourth was Western Ryder who had gone up to 150 by the time he ran at the weekend there.

    Like I say, MDA looked the best horse in the field that day to me and I'm happy to take the chance that my interpretation of his subsequent form is correct. If I'm right in believing he is a 160+ horse running off 142 he will be very hard to beat. Also, if Cobden rides he might end up a gamble.
    I like this line of thinking Maurice. Taking strict formlines through Ballymoy I can easily believe him in the low to mid-150's and corroborate it elsewhere, but I've since watched the Sandown race and whilst I think your assessment is a touch high I don't entirely disagree and could make a case for him to possibly be a high 150 horse. If that's the case he could potentially have somewhere around 16lbs in hand, which in most years, given a clean race and no jumping issues would be good enough to win.

    I've followed you in at the same price, and if doesn't show up or runs a low key race I'll be all over him at Cheltenham or Aintree.

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    Desert Orchid (24th January 2019)

  3. #102
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, Maruco, I was trying to imply that the ratings of Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov, if mid-150s last season, could well be mid-160s this season in the same way that Western Ryder has improved this season (probably a wee bit less than I'd have anticipated), so Kalshnikov could have been a 160 hurdler had he stayed over the smaller obstacles. I backed Summerville Boy in the Fighting Fifth in the belief he was a 160+ hurdler and in the hope BDA wasn't fit. I think MDA could be in the same ball-park in terms of raw ability.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plan.b123 View Post
    Hi m8,just wanted 2 give you a bit of info i recieved from another forum.That im a member of.Theres a guy on there who gives out some really good info,and is 100% genuine.He as advised 2 get stuck into leoncavello,he states there wiĺl be a big gamble on this horse,and its been plotted up for the race.At the end of the day its the betfair hurdle,really hard race 2 win.but just thought would let u know as u fancy it.
    I backed him earlier today.

  5. #104
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    Fingers crossed m8,hopefully set me up nice for the festival.ive had a reasonable e.way bet.and will go in again if the gamble materializes.

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  7. #105
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Shouldn't the 5-day decs be out by now?

    I'm not seeing any change from the previous forfeit stage.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  9. #107
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good man, DG. The updated list must have come online at some point soon after my post since I put it up straight away after visiting the RP site and not seeing it although it did take me a couple of minutes to check it against my document for the previous forfeit stage.

    Still not good enough from the RP, though. The card should have been up well before lunch.

    Happy to see both my bets (Saglawy and Mont Des Avaloirs) still there though. That's a result in itself the way my luck is just now.

    Saglaway (took 25s) still 25/1 in a place but generally shorter.

    MDA (took 33/1) now best 16/1.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th February 2019 at 4:59 PM.
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  10. #108
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    To be fair, I think that 5 day confirmations will have the same deadline as standard entries for the other races which I presume is still noon. It tends to take an hour or so to hit the media.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Desert Orchid (4th February 2019)

  12. #109
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    They're usually up at around 11am on a Friday ahead of Saturday's racing.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #110
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    That's declarations not entries/confirmations. Decs close at 10.00.
    Last edited by archie; 4th February 2019 at 5:08 PM.
    The older I get the better I was.

  14. #111
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    OK, I'm with you now, archie. Cheers for clearing it up.
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  15. #112
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    A few of you mentioned Ch'tibello on the Non-Triers thread. Into 20's now. Any thoughts?

    I'm on Leoncavallo at 20's. Sticking with him.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th February 2019 at 7:00 PM.

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  17. #113
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    Saglaway (took 25s) still 25/1 in a place but generally shorter.

    MDA (took 33/1) now best 16/1.[/QUOTE]

    I've joined you on MDA Des,your 33s looks very good now.good luck.

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    Desert Orchid (4th February 2019)

  19. #114
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    A few of you mentioned Ch'tibello on the Non-Triers thread. Into 20's now. Any thoughts?

    I'm on Leoncavallo at 20's. Sticking with him.
    I'll almost certainly have some sickness insurance on it.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #115
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I've backed Countister so far.

  21. #116
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I don't know how significant or otherwise it is at this stage but the exchange prices would have me worried about Didtheyleaveyououttoo, Ballyandy and Zanza.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #117
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    There doesn't seem to be a lot of rain in the forecast between now and Saturday hopefully the ground will dry out a bit.

    It would be quite good not to have a slog in a bog.
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  23. #118
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Saglawy now best price 20/1, generally 16s.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 5th February 2019 at 12:05 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    There doesn't seem to be a lot of rain in the forecast between now and Saturday hopefully the ground will dry out a bit.

    It would be quite good not to have a slog in a bog.
    Met Office forecast for Newbury racecourse showing rain tonight then dry Wednesday and Thursday with heavy rain on Friday


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  26. #120
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saglawy now best price 20/1, generally 16s.
    Just gone to 33 at Bfx. Looks like he might not come over after all.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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