I like this line of thinking Maurice. Taking strict formlines through Ballymoy I can easily believe him in the low to mid-150's and corroborate it elsewhere, but I've since watched the Sandown race and whilst I think your assessment is a touch high I don't entirely disagree and could make a case for him to possibly be a high 150 horse. If that's the case he could potentially have somewhere around 16lbs in hand, which in most years, given a clean race and no jumping issues would be good enough to win.
I've followed you in at the same price, and if doesn't show up or runs a low key race I'll be all over him at Cheltenham or Aintree.