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Thread: Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Looks like the RP office has been tipped the wink by NT-D. Paul Kealy put up Al Dancer at 12/1 a few weeks back. Segal must be expecting it to shorten up a good bit (from 13/2 at this stage???)

    I'm maybe reading too much into it but I've noticed that when Kealy is strong on a T-D runner the strike rate is very good.
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    Looking at Not Never, he was raised 15lbs in the handicap for winning the class three at Plumpton in Feb 2018. He was carrying top weight when winning last week. I'd be surprised if he is not raised more than the 5lbs penalty, I really would. I still think a minimum of 132 or 133 will be his new mark. See what happens early this week.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th January 2019 at 10:19 PM.

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    As the Betfair Hurdle is an early-closing race, I would have thought he can’t be raised more than the 5lb penalty for winning after publication of the weights?.......unless he runs/wins again in the interim?
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 20th January 2019 at 2:06 AM.
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    Yes, the new mark given this Tuesday will merely guide us as to how officially 'well-in' he is. As you say, he can only race off his old mark (125) plus the five pound penalty. On Tuesday I think we will find out his new mark. It'll be worth watching out for though, as if he was raised, (to let's say 135), then we know he is officially five pound well in for The Betfair Hurdle. Each pound over 130 (125+5) that he is raised, is how officially well in he will be.
    Last edited by Marb; 20th January 2019 at 10:14 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    As the Betfair Hurdle is an early-closing race, I would have thought he can’t be raised more than the 5lb penalty for winning after publication of the weights?.......unless he runs/wins again in the interim?
    We're maybe talking at cross purposes here, GH. Of course he can be raised by more than the 5lb but not as far as the Betfair Hurdle is concerned. If Marble's suspicions are confirmed and he's raised to 133 that's the mark off which he'll be rated for other future handicaps but in the Befair he'll only carry the 5lb penalty (unless he picks up another one before that, which is unlikely as he won't run, I don't think).

    As I say, we're maybe talking at cross purposes and no patronising intended.

    Another scenario (which won't affect the Betfair) is that he might end up doing a Glen Forsa and get a further raise for standing in his box.
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    No drama.

    I thought Marble was suggesting the horse might be put up to 132/133 for the race, rather than after it.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    I thought I'd have a quick look at this race tonight as Marble had asked me for a bit of input. My first reaction was to give up before I started as looking upon the initial entries I couldn't see much weakness in the market leaders. A tactic I've started to employ is to try and attack races where I don't like the first couple in the betting. One of the guys I learned a lot from used to say start assessing the form from the back end of the market look at the outsiders first. His logic was once you first come across something you like you can get quite attached to that initial fancy and cease to look much further. If you'd started at the front of the betting and worked outwards you probably settle on something with a chance in the first few and never really give serious consideration to those at longer prices. You may think that you don't do this personally because you "do" back longer priced horses, but how many times when doing this you'd have to ask yourself would you have those particular types on your radar before race days i.e either tracker horses or horses you're unintentionally following over a cliff.

    It was a rare occasion in which I'd question my sensei's teachings but I found a problem myself with working that way. What tended to happen was possibly the reverse. I'd probably settle for the first and biggest priced horse I could make some sort of case for and used that phrase "well he should be half those odds" and whether that right or wrong what invariably happened was I'd be backing overpriced losers and consoling myself that my 100/1 shot had finished better than half way and beat a fair few home....that doesn't pay too well and value has never tasted nice for dinner, I had plenty more of all those sorts of wonderful phrases.

    So what I've found has worked a bit better for me is to look at the first 3 or 4 in the betting and try to find weaknesses and horses you look at and think why the bloody hell is this favourite.. its a great starting point. I did a little piece on the Long shot thread yesterday and although I completely cocked the race up on the whole I think I'd pointed to the fact I really didn't like the favourite which was an Irish raider put in at 5/2 early on drifted to somewhere like 9/2 I think by off time and Seddon who was co 2nd fav at the time well punted into favouritism was another I was keen to take on early odds of 9/2. Now if you can get fairly good at this it makes the rest of the game fairly easy as if you can take a 5/2 and a 9/2 out of the reckoning that's roughly 36% of the book which in effect if your right gives you an over round hugely in your favour. If you can do the first bit well you should be able to punt blind and turn a profit. Some people ( Layers ) stop at this point and are just happy to accept the field in opposition but to my mind I think you should be at least able to sift through a little more get rid of some of the deadwood and come up 2 or 3 of the more likely sorts to capitalise on the first few in the betting's short comings.


    With this in mind looking at the Betfair I already liked a fair few at the front of the market there look a few nice types and I wouldn't automatically be interested in punting the race as the first 5 or 6 certainly hold solid claims I also think the mighty gull has stumbled upon a plausible outsider in Nube Negra which may become clearer in a moment and I also just know that Lisp despite being a hold up performer not something I'd be inclined to be banking on at Newbury but off the top of my head I know some of his form is rock solid and if this were a track a bit more favourable to his needs I'd have already had a decent poke at his current 20's. So that's 7 or 8 realistic contenders without me looking at the rest of the field with who I'm not so familiar with so normally I'd just wait until the day and see if I have some sort of eureka moment or whether I'd probably have a couple of token bets or leave the race alone completely (something which I need to be doing more frequently if I'm ever to take my punting to another level).

    I seem to recall Double J asking me to have a look at something when I explained why I thought Mohaayed was well handicapped last season and that worked out ok. As I've not really done much form study over the last few weeks I thought its about time I started to get a handle on the handicappers before Cheltenham arrives so I'll play devils advocate with some of the first few here a sort of brainstorming out loud with no particular direction but perhaps I might figure something out along the way. I might have to do this in bits and dabs due to time restraints but I might as well start off with Al dancer.

    Firstly, the positives. I hold a decent speed figure for him, he's young, up and coming novice unexposed and hes quite capable of being ridden handy, ideal for the job at hand. As D.O has suggested that Paul Kealy and the Mighty Gull have put him up so it looks like NTD is talking him up ( not the most surprising news ever ) although I'd have to say if NTD phoned me up and said he thought this held a chance in the Betfair personally I'd reply "no **** Holmes!".

    Lets try and see what he's done so far. His latest performance was his best to date very impressive indeed but what has he beaten ? I think we have a fairly consistent and reliable yard stick in 2nd in the shape of NotThatFuisse. Drawing collateral lines of form can be dangerous but its something I do and I know roughly when the are reliable and when they are not and I only ever use them as ball park guidelines. Certainly one of the times to use them is over the same course and similar ground, although you have to take pace into account but that's more complicated but I thought I'd play around with NotThatFuisses run behind Al Dancer and his run in the Greatwood to try and get some sort of angle on what Al Dancer has actually achieved thus far.

    Al dancer was visually impressive when beating NTF 11 lengths and the handicapper has taken into account that he certainly had a little bit more in hand than the distance suggested by raising him 12lb. Al dancer was conceding 4lb to him.

    Looking at NTF's run in the Greatwood where he appears to have run much the same race outpaced at a point before and staying on late in the day it would appear that he's not up to much himself or at least not at the minimum trip. Using the Greatwood form is a little dicey as it wasn't run at the strongest of pace. I certainly can't use Verdana Blue as she was hampered and has thus shown since shes a better horse than what she got to show us that day. Nor would I like to use the winner Nietcshe because I simply don't have enough on him to know where he is in the ratings. the 2nd 3rd and 5th though we've seen recently quite a bit of all 3 and we know where about they all lie, in the high 140's and low 150's is about right to cover all 3. Perhaps the best one to use as a yard stick on this occasion is Western Ryder as the others have mucked around in graded company he has delved back into a handicap and a truly run handicap and run respectably off a mark of 145 finishing third but I think its safe to say he's not going to be much better than that in this sphere.

    In the Greatwood Western Ryder has finished 6L in front of Notthatfuisse conceding a whopping 29lbs thats 25lbs more than Al Dancer had to concede and a 5 length shorter beaten distance at the same track on similar ground. Now admittedly Al dancer might have been good for another couple of lengths ( I think some people would overestimate how much he had left in the tank ) but either way considering Western Ryder has twice been held in big handicaps off marks mid 140's it could suggest that without some rapid improvement that winning the Betfair off 141 is more than Al Dancer has shown he's capable of to date.

    Drawing another slight comparison from the Greatwood, Nube Negra has finished 3 lengths behind NTF conceding 19lbs now a rough translation of him racing off the same terms as Al dancer had done would put him in the same ball park in beaten distances a 3 length defeat 15lbs better off wouldn't be a mile away from an 11 length victory. I talk very often about not taking these things too literally but it gives a rough idea what you're up against as long as you can translate what has run their respective race and what hasn't turned up. In the case of Al dancer people can make the case that he's on an upward curve and there could be more to come... i completely agree. You'd then could also make the case that something like Nube Negra has arguably more reasons he could improve from his encounter against NTF than Al Dancer does. So for starters he's younger and possibly just open to more natural physical development, secondly his run against NTF was his first of the campaign so its possible he wasn't quite fit enough where as Al dancers campaign was already well under way when he bumped into NTF so he was plenty fit enough at that point. You could also point to the way Nube Negra has run at Cheltenham both in the Greatwood and the Fred winter ie. travelled well to the bottom of the hill and found little up it would suggest that an easier track like Newbury will play more to his strengths. The mighty gull mentioned something about the Skeltons record in big handicaps I'd have no idea about that as I personally think stats are minging but it is notable that they haven't taken in a lesser race with him after defeat in the Greatwood they go straight to another of the "big uns" in terms of handicap hurdles which suggests at least they think they have a good mark and don't want to waste it in a lesser event. You can also say of course that he's something like still 4 times the price of Al Dancer even after the Gull has pointed him out for whatever reasons he's fathomed I did start to read some of his piece but when he suggested that he's tipping Al dancer at 6's because he believes he'll be 3's on the day, I closed that project down.

    Before anyone rushes off backing Nube Negra I won't be backing it myself as I've found horses that travel well in races but don't seem to want to put it in at the business end are expensive to follow regardless of how well handicapped they may appear. I could maybe be tempted if they fitted a tongue strap as already having a breathing op and him being weak as p!ss in a finish, anything that could help him in that department might make the difference to him being able to put the finishing touch on his good 7/8 of a race. I've only really highlighted him to draw comparison to the hot favourite to show they may not be as far apart as the betting would suggest.


    I'll try and have a go at looking at the others when I get chance to see if I can find anything more interesting.
    Last edited by Danny; 20th January 2019 at 9:24 PM.
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    Enjoyed reading, Danny. What do you reckon Not Never will be raised to on Tuesday, for winning the class three at Fontwell last week? As already discussed, unless he runs again before this race, he will run off 130 in this, (which includes the five pound penalty). It's just a matter of finding out how 'officially' well in he is. Also any thoughts on Leoncavello appreciated. Look at Leoncavello's Galway run behind the 150+ Sharjah for starters! Ps, I have looked at the market leaders, but am still content with my choice of backing the above two.
    Last edited by Marb; 20th January 2019 at 10:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    A tactic I've started to employ is to try and attack races where I don't like the first couple in the betting. One of the guys I learned a lot from used to say start assessing the form from the back end of the market look at the outsiders first. His logic was once you first come across something you like you can get quite attached to that initial fancy and cease to look much further. If you'd started at the front of the betting and worked outwards you probably settle on something with a chance in the first few and never really give serious consideration to those at longer prices. You may think that you don't do this personally because you "do" back longer priced horses, but how many times when doing this you'd have to ask yourself would you have those particular types on your radar before race days i.e either tracker horses or horses you're unintentionally following over a cliff.
    The one thing I never do is look at the market before studying a race. With handicaps I always do them in racecard order, with non-handicaps I'll either tabulate them in order of OR or RPR because you can usually dismiss the outsiders as having no chance and don't even need to study them, thereby saving time.

    Once I've done all the ratings I tabulate them in order from the top rated down. Then I work on a short list which can end up quite a long list depending on how tight my figures show the race to be. Only then do I start to look at the market.

    Yesterday, for example, among the first horses I ruled out were Thosedaysaregone and Seddon. I ended up backing Colonial Dreams but not each-way but he ran his race and I have no complaints. He was beaten by a bigger improver.

    Another route I take, which people might pick up from my posts is identifying potential winners well in advance. The most glaring example was when I started the original Rooster Booster/Champion Hurdle thread after coming up with a figure that very much put the grey in the picture for Cheltenham - five months or so before the race. I think when you know what it takes to win a certain race and you come across something that matches it, that's when to go in ante-post. By the time the race comes round it's always possible something else will end up with even better credentials but usually you've already got a bit of value.

    I remember putting up Blue Bajan for the Betfair in 2008, backing it ante-post at all sorts of prices from 50/1 down to 35/1 and laying them all off at 7/1. He was off 129 but was a 111 Flat horse who held an entry for the Supreme. He never got competitive on the day but later won the Swinton off 134 by eight lengths at 4/1f. That was a value ante-post bet that didn't come off.

    Similarly, I put up John Constable at long odds off something like 131 in 2017 only for him to be scratched. He too won the Swinton by no less than 14 lengths at 5/1f off 134. Another excellent value ante-post Schweppes bet that went west.

    Being right at the wrong time has been my real problem lately.

    So far I haven't looked at the race. I'll do so once the weights are actually published. If I come across another Blue Bajan or John Constable I'll post it and you can make sure you back it for the Swinton
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th January 2019 at 11:42 PM.
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    Tbh Marb I've had a quick look as I'm not familiar with either. I wouldn't worry too much about what the official handicapper rates him it doesn't really make a difference I think most of us had a dig at this with Irish roe last year who arrived 10lb or so officially well in the rain came that day and I think she might cross the line sometime next week if she's still running. I'd imagine he'll probably be spot on with a 5lb rise, initially the win looked alright and it looked likely was going to hack up. The horse who was chasing him down in 2nd is fairly exposed having 7 runs since August winning narrowly once from a mark of 112 and was off 118 when chasing down Not Never so that should steady the handicappers hand. As for his chances in the Betfair firstly I don't think he'll get in I'd be massively surprised if he does looks much more like an Imperial cup job to me. If he were to get in then its a big step up in class from a higher mark but as such off a lowly weight he likes to race fairly handy and dropping back in trip I suppose he'd have a punchers chance at making the frame at big price.

    Leoncavallo on the other hand looks more interesting that Galway form has been franked no end not just by Sharjah but Bedrock Le Richbourg and Good thyne tara since so that looks a proper piece of form. The figure I hold for it isn't anything that hot but I don't trust the figures I get from Ireland all that much and it looked a proper race by eye. Given a break and freshened up for this which seems o.k as he won nicely first time out in blinkers for the Dr after a long break so he can be produced fresh it was interesting after 2 very good displays in blinkers they switched to pieces and got him beaten at odds on i wonder what the thinking was on that one ? Be interested to see if he lines up whether they switch back to blinkers marb.

    A couple of interesting outsiders though mate good luck with those.
    Last edited by Danny; 21st January 2019 at 7:12 AM.
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    Yeah, Not Never could even be one for the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham or something like that...as you say...with form over further than 2 miles he may have other targets. I wouldnt be lumping on before it became clear he was an intended runner either. I haven't backed any yet, I am holding onto my cash until the end of the week or thereabouts. There's plenty of time for things to develop, is there another forfeit stage before the final decs?
    Last edited by Marb; 21st January 2019 at 12:02 AM.

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    Leoncavallo was a horse who finished fifth in a Triumph Hurdle in 2016 behind horses such as Apple's Jade and Footpad. I can't guarantee he will win, but certainly seems like each way value at 33/1 if he runs in this.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st January 2019 at 12:02 AM.

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    Halfway through my initial trawl but excluding the weekend's racing, the following are emerging as potential candidates:

    We Have A Dream
    Saglawy
    Ch'tibello
    Leoncavallo
    Grand Sancy
    Mont Des Avaloirs
    Al Dancer
    Garo De Juilley
    Distingo

    This is purely on figures and without any consideration for distances, going etc.

    So far nothing is jumping out at me as a bet bar maybe Mont Des Avaloirs who has looked to be weighing up the opposition in his races so far this season. I'm not tempted to get involved just yet though.

    I hope to get through the remainder of the field later today and/or Wednesday.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st January 2019 at 10:02 AM.
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    It's really simple. Ch'tibello should be on the will win thread.

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    You're assuming it's targeting this race rather than the spring festivals, Maruco?

    It's obviously very well handicapped these days but as mentioned above so were Blue Bajan and John Constable.

    I've struck my first bet. I took 25/1 Saglawy. I'm half-expecting him not to run but he strikes me as being the best of the Mullins lot. If he turns up, especially with Ruby up, he'll be a single-figure price.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st January 2019 at 12:56 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    You're assuming it's targeting this race rather than the spring festivals, Maruco?
    I think it's possible that they think they have enough in hand to target both this and a big Spring target Maurice. If he wins here and the handicapper nails him, they'll just switch to graded targets. And don't forget this race is worth about £30k more than the County Hurdle and may be more winnable anyway, so why wouldn't they?

    On the flip side they know there are two or three very unexposed novices, so I suspect Skelton will ride a race with that in mind and won't waste the handicap mark on finishing close up in a place. If he's not got a handful approaching the last then you can expect him to find a reverse gear.

    Of the novices, Didtheyleaveyoutoo has the right owner to have been targeted at this, and has a very lenient mark after what I noted as a very tender ride at Kempton behind Mister Fisher and others. If you're prepared to accept that the run at Kempton was for a handicap mark and write it off, look at his previous two hurdle runs and all of the cross form. It's stacks up particularly well.

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    Not Never put in the 2m handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival on 130.
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    Is that race on Saturday or Sunday, Edgt? All sounds very interesting. If someone can get hold of the racecard online please post it up. Thankyou.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st January 2019 at 6:17 PM.

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    The older I get the better I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    You're assuming it's targeting this race rather than the spring festivals, Maruco?

    It's obviously very well handicapped these days but as mentioned above so were Blue Bajan and John Constable.

    I've struck my first bet. I took 25/1 Saglawy. I'm half-expecting him not to run but he strikes me as being the best of the Mullins lot. If he turns up, especially with Ruby up, he'll be a single-figure price.
    Saglawy is also entered in the race Edgt has mentioned. Not Never is due to carry 10:6 at Leopardstown. At Number 24 on the list, looks likely to get a run if they fancy having a go.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st January 2019 at 7:35 PM.

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