Page 2 of 8 FirstFirst 1234567 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 159

Thread: Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

  1. #21
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    No, I honestly haven't been on any GG.com forum. I have only used that site for the GG alerts, but that's now called gg.co.uk isn't it? ( The alerts site I mean). I first went on Neigh forum, then was on The Racing Forum for a bit, but have only posted on talking horses the past half a dozen years. I've no idea who the imposter was, but in the words of Shaggy, it wasn't me.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 9:29 PM.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    That's what GG.alerts are for! I always put my horses of interest in my GG.co.uk alerts, so that I know when they are going to run. It certainly helps. I look forward to your anaylisis.
    I have alerts coming in from ATR but NN isn't on my list. I wouldn't be interested in backing him ahead of Newbury as I'm not convinced he can afford a penalty.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. #23
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    This Marble character on GG.com? Do we have any key information on him/her. What things that he or she was saying on there, anything notable, or something that I might find interesting?
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 9:30 PM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I have alerts coming in from ATR but NN isn't on my list. I wouldn't be interested in backing him ahead of Newbury as I'm not convinced he can afford a penalty.
    He definitely knows how to win handicap hurdles, that's for sure. He needs to go up just to make the cut though. On 125 he wouldn't have a hope in hell's chance. I think this fella is thriving in Gary Moore's yard. I reckon he will get shorter in the weeks to come, though I am not forcing anyone to back him now. If he could take in another handicap hurdle before the Betfair that would make things very interesting.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 9:15 PM.

  5. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Outsider, can you clear your inbox a bit please

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (14th January 2019)

  7. #26
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    On 125 he wouldn't have a hope in hell's chance.
    129 made the cut last year.
    126 made it in 2017.
    124 made it in 2014.

    I reckon if it's a serious target for NN Moore might be tempted to see how the race is shaping up before going for a penalty.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #27
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Will he race off his revised mark, which should be made clear in the next few days? The weights haven't been published yet. 125 will not make the cut. Wishful thinking to think it would.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2019 at 11:27 PM.

  9. #28
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Reading between the lines of your earlier post without knowing the result I thought NN had merely run promisingly today rather than winning. He'll go up about 5lbs for it (his new OR will be released next Tuesday) which will make it touch and go about whether he makes the cut. It might all hinge on the prevailing ground conditions.

    In any event, we don't know yet whether he'll be the stable's number one hope.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th January 2019 at 1:09 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Marb (15th January 2019)

  11. #29
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Double post
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2019 at 1:43 AM.

  12. #30
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Reading between the lines of your earlier post without knowing the result I thought NN had merely run promisingly today rather than winning. He'll go up about 5lbs for it (his new OR will be released next Tuesday) which will make it touch and go about whether he makes the cut. It might all hinge on the prevailing ground conditions. I am not saying he's a good thing or anything silly this far.out, but he will shorten up, the more likely it appears that he will run next month, if indeed that's the case.

    In any event, we don't know yet whether he'll be the stable's number one hope.
    It could be as much as 7 or 8 pounds I reckon,, from 125 which he is now, possibly to 132 or 133. He keeps defying his revised handicap mark, so I expect him to be punished now, although having said that, it will actually ensure he makes the cut, so should work out okay. He looked workmanlike today, (far from flashy), but he gets the job done. He knows where the winning post is. A lot of horses who win races on the bounce seem to have these attributes. Martin Pipe used to train a lot of these types. They wouldn't win very impressively, but as a result, the handicapper could never really get a measure of them until they'd won half a dozen races. It's still very early days in terms of the Betfair Hurdle, but I'll be keeping Not Never on my side.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2019 at 3:48 AM.

  13. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Danny (19th January 2019), Outsider (15th January 2019)

  14. #31
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,104
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    During the 60's Capt Ryan Price landed 4 massive gamble in the Schweppes Gold Trophy all ridden by Josh Gifford

    Josh landed a bit of a touch as a trainer with Deep Sensation 25 odd years later and now son Nicky is out the emulate his dad with the JP owned Didtheyleaveuoutto

    He had this to say "If he is the horse I think he is, then I would snap your hands off for 139"

    He did add he needs god ground

    Yet another reason not to be jumping on too early to anything
    Formely Fist of Fury

  15. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Tanlic For This Useful Post:

    Danny (19th January 2019), Outsider (15th January 2019)

  16. #32
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    The weights


  17. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Danny (19th January 2019), Grasshopper (15th January 2019), Outsider (15th January 2019)

  18. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I didn't realise the weights came out today (not paying attention to earlier stuff) so it looks like Not Never will get a penalty rather than run off his new OR. He might be well in (if he's raised by more than the penalty), he might not.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Grasshopper (15th January 2019)

  20. #34
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Happy with 10-7 for Sayar, though strongly suspect it was a throwaway entry.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  21. #35
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Happy with 10-7 for Sayar, though strongly suspect it was a throwaway entry.
    Maybe not now that they've seen his mark. 134??

    Considering my earlier comment:

    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    If it's 137 in Ireland, the chances are he'll be rated around 143.

    He's arguably chucked in. I'd really like to know the handicapper's thinking on this one.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th January 2019 at 9:42 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #36
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Just done a quick trawl of the Irish entries. This is how their marks compare:

    Saglawy 2lbs higher than in Ireland (+2)
    Jetez +9
    Uradel +5
    Dolciano Dici =
    Sayar -3
    High Expectations +4
    Cut The Mustard +5


    Further cause for curiosity re Sayar...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Danny (19th January 2019)

  24. #37
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Can’t complain about that mark, though my enthusiasm is tempered somewhat.

    Sayar is essentially still unproven, and it would be straightforward enough to make a form case, that places him somewhere around his UK and IRE marks. Maybe that’s as good as he is. Also, he’s presumably not entirely straightforward to train, and it does take a bit of a leap of faith, to align with him. His odds haven’t moved an inch since the weights were released either.

    On the plus side, he’s unexposed, and if he was knocking Graded-level as a novice (think he had the Royal Bond entry), he might be a handsomely-handicapped horse.

    I still think he’s an unlikely runner, albeit, I agree they might now be a bit more inclined, to take a closer look, if they think he does retain his ability.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 15th January 2019 at 11:22 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to Grasshopper For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (16th January 2019)

  26. #38
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,891
    Thanks
    84
    Thanked 318 Times in 204 Posts
    I pencilled in Equus Amadeus as one to follow after Doncaster and have taken some of the 40s for this (insurance). He is entered this weekend in a less competitive heat. Monsieur Le Coq struck me as well handicapped. Those are my two.

  27. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    For anyone not aware, to get an idea of how the weights will shape up and how well handicapped or otherwise they are compared with RPRs, the RP card can be useful.

    Looks like Magic Dancer will be top-rated on RPRs for now, 9lbs ahead of his OR but no guarantee he'd make the cut and might need to win and therefore go up the weights to do so, which in turn would nullify that advantage. 50/1 at present.
    Click on the RPR column in the RP card and Magic Dancer is indeed top on RPRs at the moment and still 50/1 but obviously might not get in.

    But there might still be loads of value out there. The top 13 or 14 on RPRs are all priced between 20/1 and 50/1. The favourites are well down the list, especially Getaway Trump who is nearer bottom than top.

    I probably won't manage to do a trawl of my own ratings until some time next week but I wouldn't touch the favourites with a barge pole until much nearer the day.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th January 2019 at 10:12 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  28. #40
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    The HRI website doesn't show a current official rating for Sayar in Ireland.
    Last edited by archie; 16th January 2019 at 10:19 AM.
    The older I get the better I was.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •