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Thread: Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I wouldn't touch the favourites with a barge pole until much nearer the day.
    I wouldn't even touch them on the day, but amen to this. I think you are probably right about there being good value knocking about in the anti post market. If you've got an opinion on what could run well, which I have, then have no fear, and get stuck in.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 10:32 AM.

  2. #42
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    Don't Irish horses have an abysmal record in this race ?
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 11:39 AM.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
    I think you'll find that that's the RP adding the 5lb penalty to his rating when the handicap was framed.

    https://www.britishhorseracing.com/r...?q=not%20never
    Last edited by archie; 16th January 2019 at 12:00 PM.
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    Thanks. I'm even more confused now though. So will he, A) run off 130 B) run off a revised mark when this is published), C) run with the revised mark plus the penalty?
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 12:15 PM.

  7. #46
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    Also, how do we determine if he is 'officially well-in'?

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    The HRI website doesn't show a current official rating for Sayar in Ireland.
    It was 137 when he last raced over hurdles (well beaten behind Getabird in April) according the RP and that's still showing as its OR. Presumably there's no HRI rating because he hasn't raced over hurdles since then. Perhaps the handicapper has asked his Irish counterpart what rating Sayar would be on if entered for a handicap and he's been told 134.
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  9. #48
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
    No, it's a 5lbs penalty (or it was when I checked last night). His new mark won't be published until next Tuesday.

    Edit - I see archie has already addressed this point.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th January 2019 at 12:21 PM.
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  10. #49
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Also, how do we determine if he is 'officially well-in'?
    If he's raised 7lb he'll be officially 2lb well in under his 5lbs penalty.

    If he's raised 4lbs he'll be officially 1lb badly in.
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    So that means he will not be running off his revised mark then. Only the penalty.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 12:44 PM.

  12. #51
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, unless he picks up another penalty on the way.

    By the way, I have no idea if the following is of any significance but Gary Moore's stable tour is featured in the Weekender today.

    Of the four entries he has at Newbury the only one that doesn't get a mention is Not Never.

    Of the other three the only one with a mention of the Betfair is Sussex Ranger which also gets the nomination of 'Dark Horse'.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th January 2019 at 12:55 PM.
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    That does seem a bit odd, especially as Not Never has as progressive and certainly a more interesting profile to my mind. Their last victories both came at Fontwell in class three grade, with Sussex Ranger not rated a lot higher. I just hope Gary Moore's interview may have been concluded before Mondays race. I doubt it, but if it wasn't, I'm bewildered. It certainly puts me off backing him.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 5:31 PM.

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    Or he thinks it has a chance and prefers not to mention it if he decides the race is a target.

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    As much as I'd like think more highly of trainers, I couldn't rule this out as a possibility.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2019 at 2:07 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Don't Irish horses have an abysmal record in this race ?
    Yep, Lee......conceded in an earlier post.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  17. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Don't Irish horses have an abysmal record in this race ?
    Rarely targeted by irish trainers for some reason.
    We had two winners in 1970s , I remember 76 when Irish Fashion won by 10 lengths with Irish trained 1,3,4, the Benson and Hedges Hurdle at Fairyhouse form coming good.
    Essex and Jessie's Spirit Leader won 2003 and 2005.
    Between Boylesport/Cheltenham bonus and what have you Betfair was rarely on irish radar, then Wicklow Brave was left at start/ refused to race.

  18. #57
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    They have been known to be sent for a 'day out' before a big run at the Festival though!!!

  19. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    They have been known to be sent for a 'day out' before a big run at the Festival though!!!
    Wicklow Brave - I'm still not over him winning the County in 2015. Was on for my life at Massive prices of 33/1+ for both the Betfair Hurdle (SP 9/1) and the Imperial Cup (SP 9/1) in Feb & March of that year and resigned myself to the fact I was simply barking up the wrong tree.

    Only for him to Hack up by 8 Lengths in the County (SP 25/1) a few weeks later - and with Townend riding and Ruby on the apparently more fancied Max Dynamite (SP 14/1) just to throw me off the scent fully!!! Never been as sick in all my life seeing a horse win!
    Last edited by Double Handful; 16th January 2019 at 4:49 PM.

  20. #59
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Or he thinks it has a chance and prefers not to mention it if he decides the race is a target.
    That was my first thought.
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  21. #60
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    Pricewise tips are: Al Dancer [13-2] & Nube Negra @ 33-1
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